COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BradInATX 9208]

His base is calling him a RINO for refusing to support an attempted coup of our government. It's an appeasement move for the far right part of his base. It's not a huge mystery. He's at risk of getting primaried to his right and he knows it.

[atomheartbevo 89674]

55 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Were there really people lobbying in an organized way to drop the mask requirement.  Reopening I get, and if that was the focus I think that a good number of people would support it.  But was there really an organized lobby in Abbott's ear pushing against the mask mandate?  And I don't mean twitter trolls or dumbasses like us arguing about shit on the internet, I mean the people that can actually influence decision making. 

There is an incredibly vocal group of people on the right who have been trashing Abbott non-stop since last year's reopening fuckup and mask mandates.  These were some the armed folks that showed up back in January at the Capitol with signs claiming Abbott is a not of the political party he claims to represent.  

Of course, they've been angry at him for most of the past year, which brings up @BrazilHorn's question:

22 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I just have to figure that someone got to him and advised that he needed to take a stand here and move out in front of the mask mandate & reopening.

The timing is weird how all this went down.

Yeah.  It would not have hurt him much politically to open everything up to 100% capacity while keeping the mask mandate going for another month or two (unless somebody was about to declare they were going to primary him, and they were about to start fundraising this month).

Hell, waiting one more month on masks does a few things:

1. Gets us through St. Patrick's Day
2. Gets us through Spring Break
3. Gets another million or two (or even three) Texans vaccinated, instead of only 6-7% of Texans vaccinated now.  Another month might have seen double the number of Texans vaccinated compared to right now.  That's something Abbott could have hung his hat on.

Why he didn't keep the mask mandate, while opening everything up to full capacity is a really fucking odd choice.

It's just really fucking weird, because I keep coming back to the fact that this will all probably blow up in his face, which hurts him in the long run.

Edited March 4, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[Captainant 27671]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's just really fucking weird, because I keep coming back to the fact that this will all probably blow up in his face, which hurts him kills more people in the long run.

ftfy

[Johnny Sack 8397]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

I mean, Port OConnor hasn't been taking it seriously since at least Thanksgiving lol. Over New Years while I was down there duck hunting, facemasks were less common than trump flags. Gonna be down again this weekend and I'm more or less expecting a bunch of boomers going fully covid-hoax.

If only we had the policies of those smart and educated science believing perfect northeasterners and weren't such dumbass hicks here in Texas we could have beatdown Covid like they did while also not wrecking employment and businesses. Fuckers knocked that shit out of the park and deserve an A+. Maybe when the Emmy awards and book signings are over, they could come down and educate us mouthbreathers so we can approach their success.

Edited March 4, 2021 by Johnny Sack

[Captainant 27671]

18 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

If only we had the policies of those smart and educated science believing perfect northeasterners and weren't such dumbass hicks here in Texas we could have beatdown Covid like they did while also not wrecking employment and businesses. Fuckers knocked that shit out of the park and deserve an A+. Maybe when the Emmy awards and book signings are over, they could come down and educate us mouthbreathers so we can approach their success.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

[Blotto 23516]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Somebody Abbott takes real serious whispered a real serious name who is real serious about primary'ing Abbott next year.  Abbott panicked and tacked on the mask thing to what was otherwise just gonna be dialing down business restrictions between now and 1 June.  He caught a lot of people off guard.  I have no idea what name they told him, but between that and the new somber reality that he's gonna be dragged in front of the Legislature to answer for PUC/ERCOT, he got spooked big time.  Say what you want about the man, he's typically very even-keeled.  He ain't himself lately, something else is afoot. 

Spoiler

 

[Radical Larry 28621]

19 minutes ago, Blotto said:

  Hide contents

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Damn has she always been that gelatinous?

[Guest Lobo]

Sometimes she literally looks like a real life, female cross-between of Beavis AND Butthead.  If she, Matt Gaetz, and Jim Jordan had a threesome...I'm pretty sure the baby could steer us straight into the sun.  

[CooterBrown 18013]

Shoal Creek has one.

If you need an excuse, the West Henley Boil Shack out in Henley is solid. Plenty of open air space to eat and get drunk.

[Anastasis 23469]

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

If you need an excuse, the West Henley Boil Shack out in Henley is solid. Plenty of open air space to eat and get drunk.

How have I never heard of this place after driving out that way all the time. Have some rep/ 

[Anastasis 23469]

Ah, I see that its after the turnoff to the cut. 

[CooterBrown 18013]

How have I never heard of this place after driving out that way all the time. Have some rep/ 

It’s actually owned by at least one of the guys that opened Shoal Creek Saloon back in the day. Well, when it became a restaurant. It existed as a bar and brothel before that.

[4HE 156]

6 hours ago, Captainant said:

My wife and I have been trying to figure out how we feel about just pulling out the stops to get vaxxed, but we're both young, healthy, and not 1a/b. Guess that's what we get for living healthy and not smoking. 

How'd y'all get doses lined up? Did y'all have to lie about 1a/b?

Come to our county. Our health department director has basically said just get the damned things in arms. Any arms. 
We are probably at 33% vaccinated in our county. All high risk groups have been given if they want it. And with ~50% not going to take the vaccine we are going to be running out of arms soon. 

If I get an allocation next week anyone on Surly that wants one can get it from me. Probably a huge drive for most, but you’ll get your shot. 
 

Even if it’s not “your turn” I don’t know anyone that’s questioning medical conditions. I sure as fuck am not. 

[BrazilHorn 6608]

Wow!! 91 cases today for Travis County. Crazy low. It has been since 10/31 that we have been <100 cases. Really glad to see. 26 admits today. 235 people in the hospital. Current course/speed I would estimate that by Wednesday we are <200 in the hospital.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 3/4 vs 3/3	2	9	1	24	20	9	9	9	5	3	91
% of Daily Change	2.20%	9.89%	1.10%	26.37%	21.98%	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%	5.49%	3.30%
% of Total Cases	0.57%	4.12%	10.11%	25.55%	20.85%	15.08%	11.45%	6.75%	3.31%	2.20%

[lmao 178]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

"Whataboutism": the term used to bar inquiry into whether someone adheres to the moral and behavioral standards they seek to impose on everyone else. That's its functional definition."

[lmao 178]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Wow!! 91 cases today for Travis County. Crazy low. It has been since 10/31 that we have been <100 cases. Really glad to see. 26 admits today. 235 people in the hospital. Current course/speed I would estimate that by Wednesday we are <200 in the hospital.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 3/4 vs 3/3	2	9	1	24	20	9	9	9	5	3	91
% of Daily Change	2.20%	9.89%	1.10%	26.37%	21.98%	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%	5.49%	3.30%
% of Total Cases	0.57%	4.12%	10.11%	25.55%	20.85%	15.08%	11.45%	6.75%	3.31%	2.20%

Why does it feel like you have to walk on eggshells when discussing any positive news regarding Covid? 

[mdmost 43002]

[mdleast 8295]

[Radical Larry 28621]

Did you two plan this?

[mdmost 43002]

[Radical Larry 28621]

[BrazilHorn 6608]

20 minutes ago, lmao said:

Why does it feel like you have to walk on eggshells when discussing any positive news regarding Covid? 

Not sure what in my post was walking on eggshells. I called out fact that it’d been since Halloween that Travis co was <100 cases, made an estimate that hospitalizations would drop <200 by mid next week, I said I was really glad to see the low cases, said Wow with an extra exclamation point just for good measure. Not sure how that is eggshells. I felt my exuberance practically leapt off the screen. I’m a bit of an introvert so my read could be wrong. 

[Brisketexan 105143]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

It’s actually owned by at least one of the guys that opened Shoal Creek Saloon back in the day. Well, when it became a restaurant. It existed as a bar and brothel before that.

A bar.  A bar and a brothel.  The brothel would be good for you.

[mdleast 8295]

[Guest Lobo]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

A bar.  A bar and a brothel.  The brothel would be good for you.

The brothel would be good for you, you know...natural squirts.

[DDD Dad 14339]

Come to our county. Our health department director has basically said just get the damned things in arms. Any arms. 
We are probably at 33% vaccinated in our county. All high risk groups have been given if they want it. And with ~50% not going to take the vaccine we are going to be running out of arms soon. 

If I get an allocation next week anyone on Surly that wants one can get it from me. Probably a huge drive for most, but you’ll get your shot. 
 
Even if it’s not “your turn” I don’t know anyone that’s questioning medical conditions. I sure as fuck am not. 

Which county is this? Asking for my son and his fiancée. Seriously.

[Born to Run 6569]

Lots of people die from the flu. 4,000 kids a year die of strep throat. I didn’t say what you are responding to- read that again. My response was a hypothetical to his hypothetical which was presupposing that spread of Covid after immunizations roll out would totally decouple from hospitalizations and deaths (aka our worst possible outcomes). Shit dude, before telling me to fuck off feel free to read what I said. 

Alright my bad boo. I'm a little agro today.

[Born to Run 6569]

So about Texans staying smart and continuing to follow health practices...

we gon get SICK yall!!

I'm a member of both those groups but good lord was I quick to unfollow that villainous hive of stupidity and fuckery

[mycox 582]

9 hours ago, Captainant said:

How'd y'all get doses lined up? Did y'all have to lie about 1a/b?

I just signed up on the Houston registration site and lied about being an essential worker on the form.

I would feel pretty bad if I got the last vaccine of the day and there was an old lady behind me with cancer. However I would just tell her to blame our great governor of Texas. It's every man for himself now that the mask mandate is gone.

[mycox 582]

.......

Edited March 5, 2021 by mycox

[South Austin 52509]

6 hours ago, mycox said:

I just signed up on the Houston registration site and lied about being an essential worker on the form.

I would feel pretty bad if I got the last vaccine of the day and there was an old lady behind me with cancer. However I would just tell her to blame our great governor of Texas. It's every man for himself now that the mask mandate is gone.

I would say, “Sorry about your cancer,” but do everything else the same.

[Homercles 10205]

Been flooded with emails lately about how individual businesses are maintaining their mask mandate...except Golds gym, which I haven’t been inside of for a year.  They said they’re going to reopen basketball courts, put more bikes in for spin, etc.  I was planning to go back late next week after shot 2 has had time to top off my immune system.  
 

Anyone recall gyms being a spreading center?  I thought they were.  I’d be going just for weights so I’d probably still wear a mask as I won’t be breathing hard.  
 

Understanding gyms and theaters have been hit hard, I still think it’s a dumbass move.  

[Guest Lobo]

Only because all of the little boutiquey ones in my part of town, but I would think now that big box gyms would actually be safer even with the capacity restrictions lifted.  Those things are just so damn massive you can breathe away from people.  But I've been noticing the little strip center ones that are maybe 1,500-3,000 feet...with 20 people at once inside there with the same little HVAC system meant for a dress shop or day spa.  Those I think, are problem spreaders. 

I had to stop by the grocery store yesterday real quick for two things, couldn't wait for curbside.  Was very pleased to see only one person unmasked out of probably 100 people inside. And it was a guy who was probably 65 and didn't look so great to begin with.  Everybody at CVS when I got my shot was masked up except the woman who administered my wife's shot.  She was doing the chin diaper thing telling my wife she was one of the first front-liners in Texas to get the shots back in December/January.  Cold comfort to my wife who is sharing this cubicle that's about the size of a regional jet lavatory with a woman who exchanges air all day with the most extremely at-risk groups.  

We got six more months of this at least, and more...not fewer businesses are gonna shut down because the complete removal of restrictions also means the complete removal of forbearance/forgiveness.  

[Anastasis 23469]

@BrazilHorn have you seen any good surveillance numbers on variants in Texas, in particular B117? 

[BrazilHorn 6608]

42 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

@BrazilHorn have you seen any good surveillance numbers on variants in Texas, in particular B117? 

CDC is showing reporting by state for the various variants

B117 (UK), P1 (Brazil) & B1351 (S. Africa)

So far Texas is reporting 101 cases of B117, 0 of P1 & 1 of B1351.

Cannot verify how often/readily Texas clinics/doctors etc are testing for these respective variants so to what degree they are under/over reported is hard to say.

[Hate 20108]

I just signed up on the Houston registration site and lied about being an essential worker on the form.
I would feel pretty bad if I got the last vaccine of the day and there was an old lady behind me with cancer. However I would just tell her to blame our great governor of Texas. It's every man for himself now that the mask mandate is gone.

I just said I had an underlying condition, which is at least partially true as I am a little overweight (I got the Covid 15...pounds) and my blood pressure is a little higher than it should be. I was prepared to wait until it was opened to everyone, but when the mask mandate was lifted the vaccine is the only real defense I had. I am scheduled to get my first shot next Thursday. Can’t wait.

[4HE 156]

10 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Which county is this? Asking for my son and his fiancée. Seriously.

Check your PM. 

[BradInATX 9208]

The 7 day moving average reporting around the storm is pretty trippy. The dashboard would have you believe we had an off-schedule upward wobble in hospitalizations. Pretty obviously a data lag then a data reconciliation/catchup. You can see it in the 7 day average for hospitalizations (white). If you just drew it on a normal curve (which I did in purple), it would look like a nice, normal sloping trend back towards the bottom; the same way it came up but in reverse.

Austin is looking really good. We are headed in the right direction and fast. It's going to slow down some, but I'm sticking with my "basically normal by Memorial Day" prediction.

If you run the purple line out, continuing the gradual flattening, we're back in the blue, which represents basically March of 2020, in May.

Edited March 5, 2021 by BradInATX

[utee94 15823]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

The 7 day moving average reporting around the storm is pretty trippy. The dashboard would have you believe we had an off-schedule upward wobble in hospitalizations. Pretty obviously a data lag then a data reconciliation/catchup. You can see it in the 7 day average for hospitalizations (white). If you just drew it on a normal curve (which I did in purple), it would look like a nice, normal sloping trend back towards the bottom; the same way it came up but in reverse.

Austin is looking really good. We are headed in the right direction and fast. It's going to slow down some, but I'm sticking with my "basically normal by Memorial Day" prediction.

If you run the purple line out, continuing the gradual flattening, we're back in the blue, which represents basically March of 2020, in May.

Well, run it out then, as a forecast.  We'll allow you to include error bars if you're not really all that confident...

 

 

[Brisketexan 105143]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

The 7 day moving average reporting around the storm is pretty trippy. The dashboard would have you believe we had an off-schedule upward wobble in hospitalizations. Pretty obviously a data lag then a data reconciliation/catchup. You can see it in the 7 day average for hospitalizations (white). If you just drew it on a normal curve (which I did in purple), it would look like a nice, normal sloping trend back towards the bottom; the same way it came up but in reverse.

Austin is looking really good. We are headed in the right direction and fast. It's going to slow down some, but I'm sticking with my "basically normal by Memorial Day" prediction.

If you run the purple line out, continuing the gradual flattening, we're back in the blue, which represents basically March of 2020, in May.

Counterpoint....the predicted value of Gamestop stock based on past trendlines up to a coupla months ago.....

Just to be a Debbie Downer.  And to make a Gamestop reference.

[Message Board User 12395]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint....the predicted value of Gamestop stock based on past trendlines up to a coupla months ago.....

Just to be a Debbie Downer.  And to make a Gamestop reference.

That slight uptick in Feb is almost certainly due to the Feb 14-16 winter storm which messed up data state-wide.

[Brisketexan 105143]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

That slight uptick in Feb is almost certainly due to the Feb 14-16 winter storm which messed up data state-wide.

Or a lotta people went around licking each other those days.

I have my theories......

[lmao 178]

17 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Not sure what in my post was walking on eggshells. I called out fact that it’d been since Halloween that Travis co was <100 cases, made an estimate that hospitalizations would drop <200 by mid next week, I said I was really glad to see the low cases, said Wow with an extra exclamation point just for good measure. Not sure how that is eggshells. I felt my exuberance practically leapt off the screen. I’m a bit of an introvert so my read could be wrong. 

Sorry, more of a rhetorical question. Seems people are restrained when talking about positive news related to the pandemic bc of all the political binary bs involved. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

25 minutes ago, lmao said:

bc of all the political binary bs involved. 

You answered your own question

[scottsins 1966]

Sorry, more of a rhetorical question. Seems people are restrained when talking about positive news related to the pandemic bc of all the political binary bs involved. 

Correct, just as observed in some being reluctant to discuss negative news.

People suck generally.

[BrazilHorn 6608]

Nice low day in terms of cases for Travis County with only 82 cases today. 35 admits and 233 people hospitalized. We need to be in a steady run <30 admits for several days to move out of Stage 4 into Stage 3 in Travis County. Fingers crossed if cases counts stay low, admits will drop starting middle next week (admits tend to lag cases)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 3/5 vs 3/4	0	2	12	26	21	7	5	5	2	2	82
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.44%	14.63%	31.71%	25.61%	8.54%	6.10%	6.10%	2.44%	2.44%
% of Total Cases	0.57%	4.12%	10.11%	25.56%	20.85%	15.08%	11.44%	6.75%	3.31%	2.20%

[Captainant 27671]

'It was horrific': Houston restaurants brace for threats after sticking with masks

The past three days have been difficult for Monica Richards, a co-owner of Picos restaurant in Upper Kirby. After Gov. Greg Abbott announced he is reopening Texas on March 10, the restaurant told its customers its own COVID-19 restrictions will stay the same. Picos received many messages of support, but then it got ugly.

“It was horrific,” said Richards. Picos received calls, private messages on social media and emails threatening to call U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the restaurant’s staff and saying their green cards and paperwork need to be checked. “I never imagined that they would go that far,” she said, adding that Picos has “always been by the book.”

...

“This weekend will be telling,” he said. “I imagine there will be a contingent of people that are going out specifically to prove a point and pick a fight about it.”

Weber said he is having conversations with his staff on how to de-escalate potential situations.

[Armybrat 40849]

The ICE threat is an empty one nowadays. Lol /cr

[Deej 76796]

Pay an off-duty cop to work security at the door. They're usually pretty trigger-happy.