COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

Good April Fool's Day yesterday for Travis County with 107 cases and 13 admits. 141 folks in the hospital.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/1 vs 3/31	0	3	9	30	30	13	8	11	3	0	107
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.80%	8.41%	28.04%	28.04%	12.15%	7.48%	10.28%	2.80%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.15%	10.40%	25.86%	20.66%	14.96%	11.33%	6.63%	3.26%	2.13%

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

24 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Good April Fool's Day yesterday for Travis County with 107 cases and 13 admits. 141 folks in the hospital.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/1 vs 3/31	0	3	9	30	30	13	8	11	3	0	107
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.80%	8.41%	28.04%	28.04%	12.15%	7.48%	10.28%	2.80%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.15%	10.40%	25.86%	20.66%	14.96%	11.33%	6.63%	3.26%	2.13%

Based on these case distributions I would guess we’d start seeing single digit daily admits within the next 10 days.

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Based on these case distributions I would guess we’d start seeing single digit daily admits within the next 10 days.

I think you are probably right. Easter could be a mini-spike however as it is one of those "multi-generational" gatherings where we could see exposure to the 60+ crowd. Given the numbers in that group that have been vaccinated (~26% of al vaccines so far have gone to 60+), I hope any infections are reduced.

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

Another strong day for Travis County with 97 cases today, 24 admits and 139 people hospitalized (11/8 was last day <140)

Cases heavily weighted where you like to see them in the 20-29 range. Considering the four college age girls in front of me at the liquor store tonight buying a fuck ton of booze and looking to make some serious bad decisions, I don't see cases dropping in this range any time soon (be careful @F250)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/2 vs 4/1	-1	6	9	36	14	12	12	6	3	0	97
% of Daily Change	-1.03%	6.19%	9.28%	37.11%	14.43%	12.37%	12.37%	6.19%	3.09%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.16%	10.40%	25.87%	20.65%	14.96%	11.34%	6.63%	3.26%	2.13%

[Kyle 207]

11 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think you are probably right. Easter could be a mini-spike however as it is one of those "multi-generational" gatherings where we could see exposure to the 60+ crowd. Given the numbers in that group that have been vaccinated (~26% of al vaccines so far have gone to 60+), I hope any infections are reduced.

I'm sure the great job being done with testing and vaccinations at the border will help.

[F250 28,777]

4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another strong day for Travis County with 97 cases today, 24 admits and 139 people hospitalized (11/8 was last day <140)

Cases heavily weighted where you like to see them in the 20-29 range. Considering the four college age girls in front of me at the liquor store tonight buying a fuck ton of booze and looking to make some serious bad decisions, I don't see cases dropping in this range any time soon (be careful @F250)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/2 vs 4/1	-1	6	9	36	14	12	12	6	3	0	97
% of Daily Change	-1.03%	6.19%	9.28%	37.11%	14.43%	12.37%	12.37%	6.19%	3.09%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.16%	10.40%	25.87%	20.65%	14.96%	11.34%	6.63%	3.26%	2.13%

They told me they were vaccinated and on birth control.

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

I'm sure the great job being done with testing and vaccinations at the border will help.

Kyle can you save it for the other thread? I'll concede that you are a super big brain guy if you stick to the DT: Covid thread

Thx kyle

[Kyle 207]

7 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Kyle can you save it for the other thread? I'll concede that you are a super big brain guy if you stick to the DT: Covid thread

Thx kyle

 

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Message Board User

[Texas Jeff 1,945]

We are playing chicken with the virus.  People are tired of living this way and looking for a reason to declare that it's over.  Hopefully vaccines will beat back the variants.  If you look at the northeast, they are clearly having an outbreak that is spreading, and they are more vaccinated that we are.

Hopefully, there is enough time for more vaccine to get in arms here before whatever is going on in the northeast arrives in Texas.

[Message Board User 12,395]

3 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

We are playing chicken with the virus.  People are tired of living this way and looking for a reason to declare that it's over.  Hopefully vaccines will beat back the variants.  If you look at the northeast, they are clearly having an outbreak that is spreading, and they are more vaccinated that we are.

Hopefully, there is enough time for more vaccine to get in arms here before whatever is going on in the northeast arrives in Texas.

Suppose at some point cases do start to rise like they are in Michigan.  All the data suggests that there is a strong seasonal and regional component, so it's certainly possible that in a week or month or 6 months cases may start rising again.

We masking up and locking down again statewide if that happens? 

Today was another good day statewide - 

 

 

[LABEVO 928]

Despite mask mandates being lifted, I am in nowhere Texas and still see 70%-80% people wearing a mask. I’d guess despite the lifting of the restrictions that the vast majority of people are playing it safe plus increasing number of individuals vaccinated. 

[Surly Bevo 24,921]

I think the cases rising thing is obviously something to keep a good eye on, but now with it happening the big question is deaths...and to some extent hospitalizations.  If cases rise and those two don't follow at the same rate they have with past surges, then that's actually a great lithmus test for "This thing is getting a lot better" (note did not say "all is well").  

It goes back to what many has said on all the various threads....if people are getting Covid and yet not going to the hospital and or dying, then it's just another pain in the butt illness that we live with like all the rest of them.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Surly Bevo

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

Ok this is Saturday info as no update for Sunday. I was traveling yesterday so didn't pull it. Travis County had 71 cases Saturday and 26 admits. 138 hospitalized (down 1 from prior day so a bunch of folks were released)

Great news on death front with only 7 deaths week ending April 3rs (lowest since W/E 11/28)

1 death in 40 to 49

4 deaths in 60 to 69

2 deaths in 80+

Cases still skewing younger and that and the reduced deaths in 60+ overall bode well. Keep getting seniors vaccinated.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/3 vs 4/2	0	6	7	23	15	9	7	2	1	1	71
% of Daily Change	0.00%	8.45%	9.86%	32.39%	21.13%	12.68%	9.86%	2.82%	1.41%	1.41%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.16%	10.40%	25.88%	20.65%	14.95%	11.33%	6.62%	3.26%	2.13%

[CooterBrown 18,014]

When to Northwest Park for a bit. There were two big family gatherings there with easily 100 people total without one mask between them.

I’d bet that same scene happened all over town today.

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

This is a two day true up for Travis County. 153 cases over Sunday/Monday with 17 admits for Monday & 10 Sunday. Popped back over 140 hospitalized with 142.

Still skewing younger which bodes well for mortality.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/5 vs 4/3	2	14	19	49	29	15	13	7	2	3	153
% of Daily Change	1.31%	9.15%	12.42%	32.03%	18.95%	9.80%	8.50%	4.58%	1.31%	1.96%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.17%	10.41%	25.89%	20.65%	14.95%	11.33%	6.62%	3.26%	2.13%

[Anastasis 23,472]

Hospitalization data skewing younger? Indicative of VOC?

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Virus is protecting the olds or UK variant pushing things towards Gaetz land

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

It looks like 3 things happening at once: olds are protected thru vaccine, youngs are more susceptible to the new variants, and youngs are behaving recklessly.

One thing that can fuck us is if the new variant actually puts young people in the hospital.  Otherwise case numbers will trend up but won’t really warrant any restrictions other than masking.  Of course that risk should be mitigated  by the vaccine within 60 days assuming 70+% of youngs are willing to get it.

Still very disappointed in lack of effort to address vaccine hesitation and lack of effort to implement more robust test/trace.

Despite all that, I continue to expect the number of hospitalizations to be back to pre-pandemic numbers by Memorial Day.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[Brisketexan 105,146]

Our governor just issued an executive order prohibiting "vaccine passports" from being required by any gov't entity for entry into a facility, including any entity that receives public funds in any way.  So, don't expect UT to be able to require vaccines to go to a football game next season.

Oh, and his statement is loaded with "personal freedom" rhetoric and shit -- one throwaway line about how vaccines are safe and you're encouraged to get one....and the rest of it is functionally "but if you do, you're a freedom-hating pussy communist, and you're not a freedom-hating pussy communist, are you?  ARE YOU?"

Sigh.

[Anastasis 23,472]

I am having my CDC card blown up and printed on a T shirt. 

[XYZ 2,154]

I’m having mine tattooed on my forehead.

[InkaUtexas 25,950]

30 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I am having my CDC card blown up and printed on a T shirt. 

Getting a barcode. 

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

15 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Hospitalization data skewing younger? Indicative of VOC?

There just isn't great data that matches exactly hospitalizations by age. Last update for Travis County shows w/e 3/28 and breaks down as follows:

< 1 (0)

1 to 9 (1)

10 to 19 (2)

20 to 29 (8)

30 to 39 (9)

40 to 49 (12)

50 to 59 (17)

60 to 69 (18)

70 to 79 (19)

>80 (15)

This only sums to 101 and there were 148 people hospitalized on 3/28 so I am unsure exactly how they are pulling data to get to their numbers but if we assume it is at least somewhat directionally correct then you can see hospitalizations are still skewing older.

[South Austin 52,511]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I am having my CDC card blown up and printed on a T shirt. 

Same, but am including a picture of Greg Abbott on the t-shirt.

[gyroprotagonist 2,592]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Getting a barcode. 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Our governor just issued an executive order prohibiting "vaccine passports" from being required by any gov't entity for entry into a facility, including any entity that receives public funds in any way.  So, don't expect UT to be able to require vaccines to go to a football game next season.

Oh, and his statement is loaded with "personal freedom" rhetoric and shit -- one throwaway line about how vaccines are safe and you're encouraged to get one....and the rest of it is functionally "but if you do, you're a freedom-hating pussy communist, and you're not a freedom-hating pussy communist, are you?  ARE YOU?"

Sigh.

had not seen that yet.  I am fairly ambivalent about it.  I honestly don't think that a passport will really incentivize someone, who otherwise would not get a vax, to get a vax.  The biggest loss here is feeding the antivax crowd more red meat.  I am guessing the EO was specific to C19 otherwise we will be having measles outbreak in schools next fall.

[Brisketexan 105,146]

7 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

had not seen that yet.  I am fairly ambivalent about it.  I honestly don't think that a passport will really incentivize someone, who otherwise would not get a vax, to get a vax.  The biggest loss here is feeding the antivax crowd more red meat.  I am guessing the EO was specific to C19 otherwise we will be having measles outbreak in schools next fall.

It was specific to COVID 19.  And it was a huge serving of antivax red meat -- that's all it was.

We have a really big fucking problem with antivaxxers and empowered stupidity.  We are absolutely going to stall out on a path that otherwise would knock this virus the fuck out as a force that interferes with our lives and commerce.  We're going to stall, and it's going to be because of idiots pandering to the dumbest among us for political points, further empowering and glorifying their stupidity.  It's absolutely fucking amazing, and absolutely fucking awful, and here we go.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Brisketexan

[IDIOTsavant 8,483]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It was specific to COVID 19.  And it was a huge serving of antivax red meat -- that's all it was.

We have a really big fucking problem with antivaxxers and empowered stupidity.  We are absolutely going to stall out on a path that otherwise would knock this virus the fuck out as a force that interferes with our lives and commerce.  We're going to stall, and it's going to be because of idiots pandering to the dumbest among us for political points, further empowering and glorifying their stupidity.  It's absolutely fucking amazing, and absolutely fucking awful, and here we go.

TBF there's a strong argument this is the reason for the pandemic in the first place.

[Newdoc 3,440]

3 hours ago, XYZ said:

I’m having mine tattooed on my forehead.

 

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Getting a barcode. 

The chip in your arm can be read by surveillance cameras anyway. Big bother knows who’s been vaccinated. 😉

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

We aren't going to stall. 

[dcar00 14,210]

15 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

We aren't going to stall. 

apparently you aren't far enough out on the ledge to see the bottom of the pit...

[XYZ 2,154]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

The chip in your arm can be read by surveillance cameras anyway. Big bother knows who’s been vaccinated. 😉

I thought the chip would have found its way to my brain by now.

[Paper_jam 831]

Does the Governor's order against "vaccine passports" (I hate that term) just apply to government entities? So, I would hope, a private business such as a restaurant or retail store could still limit customers to "vaccinated only" if they so choose?  If a restaurant can kick you out for not wearing a tie, I think it's more than reasonable that they can refuse to serve you if you can't show a record of vaccination.  I know I'd be more likely to frequent establishments if I knew that the other customers were vaccinated.

Of course, I fully expect a world of shit to come down on businesses or companies that try to implement such a policy, plus the general difficulty of figuring out if someone's record of vaccination is authentic.

 

 

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11,819]

6 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

Does the Governor's order against "vaccine passports" (I hate that term) just apply to government entities? So, I would hope, a private business such as a restaurant or retail store could still limit customers to "vaccinated only" if they so choose?  If a restaurant can kick you out for not wearing a tie, I think it's more than reasonable that they can refuse to serve you if you can't show a record of vaccination.  I know I'd be more likely to frequent establishments if I knew that the other customers were vaccinated.

Of course, I fully expect a world of shit to come down on businesses or companies that try to implement such a policy, plus the general difficulty of figuring out if someone's record of vaccination is authentic.

 

 

 

The governors proclamation only applies if he could actually tread on you, and he doesn’t have four wheel drive.  So it’s meaningless much like any other proclamation.  

[Brisketexan 105,146]

9 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

Does the Governor's order against "vaccine passports" (I hate that term) just apply to government entities? So, I would hope, a private business such as a restaurant or retail store could still limit customers to "vaccinated only" if they so choose?  If a restaurant can kick you out for not wearing a tie, I think it's more than reasonable that they can refuse to serve you if you can't show a record of vaccination.  I know I'd be more likely to frequent establishments if I knew that the other customers were vaccinated.

Of course, I fully expect a world of shit to come down on businesses or companies that try to implement such a policy, plus the general difficulty of figuring out if someone's record of vaccination is authentic.

 

 

 

People are trying to figure this out.  It includes any entity that receives government funds.  In the order, that is undefined, as I understand it.  So, if a restaurant has catered a public event, are they included?  If they get a tax credit of some sort?  That's PROBABLY not what he meant, but gee, nobody can imagine Abbott and Paxton arguing for a tremendous overreach of state power, can they?

[BrazilHorn 6,609]

142 cases today in Travis County along with 19 admits and 136 hospitalized (down 6 from yesterday)

Cases skewing younger which is good all things being equal.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/6 vs 4/5	1	4	17	42	29	24	11	9	4	1	142
% of Daily Change	0.70%	2.82%	11.97%	29.58%	20.42%	16.90%	7.75%	6.34%	2.82%	0.70%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.17%	10.41%	25.90%	20.64%	14.95%	11.32%	6.62%	3.26%	2.13%

[Anastasis 23,472]

9 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

142 cases today in Travis County along with 19 admits and 136 hospitalized (down 6 from yesterday)

Cases skewing younger which is good all things being equal.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/6 vs 4/5	1	4	17	42	29	24	11	9	4	1	142
% of Daily Change	0.70%	2.82%	11.97%	29.58%	20.42%	16.90%	7.75%	6.34%	2.82%	0.70%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.17%	10.41%	25.90%	20.64%	14.95%	11.32%	6.62%	3.26%	2.13%

Very meh. 

[Armybrat 40,850]

We went to Fredericksburg today - first road trip in 16 months. Light crowd of tourists, maybe a third walking around unmasked, but masks required to shop in the stores. Some restaurants required masks to enter, but everyone took them off at the tables. All staff were masked. We walked around everywhere with masks but took them off to eat.

The Schnitzel & beer were excellent, but no draft was available because of some problem.

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by Armybrat

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Vaccine passports are working in Israel. 

Why does Abbott think Israel is wrong?  

Primer: https://www.kqed.org/news/11867934/covid-vaccine-passports-how-they-could-work-when-you-might-need-one

 

Edited April 6, 2021 by washparkhorn

[Anastasis 23,472]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Vaccine passports are working in Israel. 

Why does Abbott think Israel is wrong?  

Primer: https://www.kqed.org/news/11867934/covid-vaccine-passports-how-they-could-work-when-you-might-need-one

Is this the only drum you can beat?

[smoky 840]

It takes 10-12 weeks to get a regular passport.

Yall are out of your mind if you think vaccine passports will even be relevant by the time they can figure out what it would look like.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Is this the only drum you can beat?

I am keen on intersectionality analysis - and where the cleavage fails.  The problem of stickiness, in a manner of speaking.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 minute ago, smoky said:

It takes 10-12 weeks to get a regular passport.

Yall are out of your mind if you think vaccine passports will even be relevant by the time they can figure out what it would look like.

It's a barcode one carries on a phone.

[South Austin 52,511]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Vaccine passports are working in Israel. 

Why does Abbott think Israel is wrong?  

[smoky 840]

2 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

It's a barcode one carries on a phone.

You'll have to have a smart phone to go do stuff that you can do for free today?

Why do you hate the olds and the poors?

[Anastasis 23,472]

8 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

I am keen on intersectionality analysis - and where the cleavage fails.  The problem of stickiness, in a manner of speaking.

Whatever man. This is wrongheaded approach to messaging that will get no where. But good for jerkoff theatre. Still the problem of stickiness. 

[rpspeed 1,363]

Yall seriously think a lot of businesses will require a vaccine passport to enter?  95% of the places here dont even require a mask, including some school districts.  Went to the fair tonight, hardly a mask to be found. On another note, wife told me they havent had anybody in the covid ICU unit in over two weeks.

Edited April 7, 2021 by rpspeed

[dcar00 14,210]

39 minutes ago, smoky said:

You'll have to have a smart phone to go do stuff that you can do for free today?

Why do you hate the olds and the poors?

poors have smartphones.

[dcar00 14,210]

44 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

It's a barcode one carries on a phone.

can we get that for regular passports?  I'd like to bypass all the bullshit and 10-12 weeks for a book of paper.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

29 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

Yall seriously think a lot of businesses will require a vaccine passport to enter?  95% of the places here dont even require a mask, including some school districts.  Went to the fair tonight, hardly a mask to be found. On another note, wife told me they havent had anybody in the covid ICU unit in over two weeks.

I think it won’t matter after everyone is eligible to get a vaccine. Planes might require it, I’m sure foreign countries will since their behind us in vaccines and will be for a long time. Schools will require it. Some employers.  As long as huge crowds don’t restart this madness with variants, the talk will go away.