COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6846]

111 cases for Travis County today with 16 admits and 129 hospitalized.

Younger groups outperforming the olds which is what you want to see (unless your South Austin's ex who chooses to defy science/data and forge her own path)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/15 vs 4/14	1	9	15	28	18	16	14	5	3	2	111
% of Daily Change	0.90%	8.11%	13.51%	25.23%	16.22%	14.41%	12.61%	4.50%	2.70%	1.80%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.93%	20.64%	14.92%	11.30%	6.59%	3.24%	2.11%

[Johnny Sack 8397]

14 hours ago, South Austin said:

Our son might die.

Does he have some sort of condition that makes him at risk?  Because otherwise risk of death to a 10 year old from Covid is equivalent to getting eaten by a shark.

[South Austin 53227]

1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Does he have some sort of condition that makes him at risk?  Because otherwise risk of death to a 10 year old from Covid is equivalent to getting eaten by a shark.

No risk conditions and he's perfectly healthy.  And I'm not going to mention to her the risk of getting eaten by a shark before our Rosemary Beach trip.

[Armybrat 41408]

17 hours ago, South Austin said:

I'm pushing sending my fourth grader back to school.  He's now one of 5 kids in his class still remote while the other 13 are in person.  I'd say easily 60-70% of the school has gone back in person.  My ex still claims she's nervous about it, even though she and I are both fully vaccinated.

I'm okay with my daughter finishing out the year remotely.  It's the opposite at her school -- relatively few kids are going back in person.  Her grades are good and she's had social interaction with a small group of girls as her pod and while paying on the varsity basketball team.

 

My youngest grandson just went back to his 5th grade Zilker classroom for the first time today to join his friends. He has been ready for quite some time.

Parents are not allowed in the building and a teacher takes temperatures before the kids go in.

 

Edited April 16, 2021 by Armybrat

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2692]

There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

On 4/15/2021 at 10:35 AM, Pig Bellmont said:

 

Over what time period?  What’s the average lifespan of someone in there?  

[BrazilHorn 6846]

3 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

This is 100% the reason. AISD fucked up by going it alone in Central Texas and among the major metros with really discouraging people coming to class even after data suggested no spread in classroom & CDC urged them back. 
AISD and many teachers kept urging people to stay home. Now droves are bailing for private school/transferring out of AISD and they are begging kids to come back to secure funding and so kids can take STARR test. Just a mess. 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2692]

They're begging remote learners to come in person to meet the whatever % metric of in-person learners TEA wants so the agency will allow us to have our captured money, it's not to do with people who have unenrolled. 

[BrazilHorn 6846]

5 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

They're begging remote learners to come in person to meet the whatever % metric of in-person learners TEA wants so the agency will allow us to have our captured money, it's not to do with people who have unenrolled. 

I know that is just an added by product that creates issues for next year.Fewer kids = fewer teachers needed.

[BrazilHorn 6846]

Nice low case day for Travis County with 93 today but holy shit a lot of admits (37 - the most since 2/26) & 138 people hospitalized.

First day of the week that the <20 school age groups haven't out performed their overall pandemic to date share.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/16 vs 4/15	0	3	9	30	22	16	4	6	3	0	93
% of Daily Change	0.00%	3.23%	9.68%	32.26%	23.66%	17.20%	4.30%	6.45%	3.23%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.93%	20.64%	14.92%	11.29%	6.59%	3.24%	2.11%

[atomheartbevo 90650]

5 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

My kids have been back the full time they were allowed, as have many of their peers, but we have seen the mass emails from the principal, and the TEA stuff has been mentioned.  Plus it's been all over the news, PTA has been sending out emails mentioning it, etc.

There are a lot more kids showing up the past few weeks at my kids' schools.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Nice low case day for Travis County with 93 today but holy shit a lot of admits (37 - the most since 2/26) & 138 people hospitalized.

First day of the week that the <20 school age groups haven't out performed their overall pandemic to date share.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/16 vs 4/15	0	3	9	30	22	16	4	6	3	0	93
% of Daily Change	0.00%	3.23%	9.68%	32.26%	23.66%	17.20%	4.30%	6.45%	3.23%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.93%	20.64%	14.92%	11.29%	6.59%	3.24%	2.11%

Is that admit number some kind of correction?  Holy shit.

[BrazilHorn 6846]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Is that admit number some kind of correction?  Holy shit.

Don't know. I have seen that Tuesdays are true up days for cases, I haven't seen such for admits. I hope this is a one off as it is a big jump from what we have seen the past couple of months.

[BrazilHorn 6846]

Not a great day for admits (30) or hospitalizations (145). This time a week ago we were at 127 in Travis County.

136 cases today, big jump in the 20 to 29 group vs normal compare.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/17 vs 4/16	0	3	13	53	26	16	15	7	2	1	136
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.21%	9.56%	38.97%	19.12%	11.76%	11.03%	5.15%	1.47%	0.74%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.96%	20.64%	14.92%	11.29%	6.59%	3.24%	2.11%

[BrazilHorn 6846]

14 deaths last week in Travis County. Highest since W/E 3/20. We had been on a nice steady 3 week decline until this week. Here is breakdown by age group

40 to 49 (4)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (1)

70 to 79 (5) Had gone 4 straight weeks with zero deaths in this age group

80+ (2)

[Snake Diggity 4714]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Not a great day for admits (30) or hospitalizations (145). This time a week ago we were at 127 in Travis County.

136 cases today, big jump in the 20 to 29 group vs normal compare.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/17 vs 4/16	0	3	13	53	26	16	15	7	2	1	136
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.21%	9.56%	38.97%	19.12%	11.76%	11.03%	5.15%	1.47%	0.74%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.96%	20.64%	14.92%	11.29%	6.59%	3.24%	2.11%

Admits becoming worrisome.  I did not expect to see any more 25+ days.  The % of admits against the 2 week lag of daily cases is exorbitant.  And odd considering the positivity rate hasn’t skyrocketed.  Hate that we don’t get direct insight into the admit ages.  If most of these admits are people <50 then that spells trouble. 

[bschoolprof 6342]

One thing that's interesting is that the recent uptick in the overall hospital census has not been mirrored in the ICU census - it continues to go down (at least for now).  Thus, these new admits appear less serious, which is a good sign.  

[XYZ 2154]

5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

One thing that's interesting is that the recent uptick in the overall hospital census has not been mirrored in the ICU census - it continues to go down (at least for now).  Thus, these new admits appear less serious, which is a good sign.

Which I think is to be expected. The virus tends to mutate into more contagious and less deadly varieties.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Pato del Muerto 53504]

And testing is still adequate to validate that info?

[Armybrat 41408]

It appears the chart is referring to hospitalizations/deaths?

[BrazilHorn 6846]

20 admits, 61 cases and 146 hospitalized today.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/18 vs 4/17	2	2	7	15	13	15	5	2	0	0	61
% of Daily Change	3.28%	3.28%	11.48%	24.59%	21.31%	24.59%	8.20%	3.28%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.95%	20.64%	14.93%	11.29%	6.59%	3.24%	2.10%

[Hate 20249]

I went to a friend's surprise birthday party this weekend in Austin.   There were no masks to be found anywhere and there were probably about 50 people there.  It was awesome to feel normal again.  They had "casino night" so we were playing craps and I never even thought about Covid (vaccinated).  Things are beginning to return to normal again and I like it...a lot.

[El Diablo 4232]

I went to Walmart yesterday, showed up as the doors were opening. Still felt like I was playing craps. 

[utee94 16088]

18 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

I went to Walmart yesterday, showed up as the doors were opening. Still felt like I was playing craps. 

I mean, to be fair, stepping foot into a Walmart felt like that long before COVID...

 

 

[Armybrat 41408]

31 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

I went to Walmart yesterday, showed up as the doors were opening. Still felt like I was playing craps. 

We (both vaccinated by early March) have made 3 trips to Costco in the past six months. The first two were early in the morning, so very few customers were there. Last week we made the mistake of going Thursday afternoon, as there were a lot of them in the store. But we still managed to avoid any close contact. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Armybrat

[Okie State 3889]

I went into Walmart a few months back and bailed after I saw some lady pull down her mask to hack up a lung. That place always just has a weird vibe regardless of which location.

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2692]

Spouse got the shot at the super Walmart in Round Rock, and said everyone in the store shopping was either limping or hunchbacked.

Is it the gateway to gimpsville or something?

[Message Board User 12405]

19 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Spouse got the shot at the super Walmart in Round Rock, and said everyone in the store shopping was either limping or hunchbacked.

Is it the gateway to gimpsville or something?

The lesson is, as always, avoid Walmart like the plague.  

Especially in the afternoons and weekends.

[gmr548 16701]

Spouse got the shot at the super Walmart in Round Rock, and said everyone in the store shopping was either limping or hunchbacked.
Is it the gateway to gimpsville or something?

I remember my first trip to Walmart

[StruggleBus 3922]

There is literally zero reason to ever shop at a Walmart if you live in a major metro areas. 

[BrazilHorn 6846]

153 cases today in Travis County with 12 admits and 144 hospitalized. Higher share in younger ages as we have seen. Latest age breakout on hospitalizations still skews in the 50+ groups so while cases are running high in younger it's still the olds going to the hospital.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/19 vs 4/18	1	10	23	47	25	16	18	8	4	1	153
% of Daily Change	0.65%	6.54%	15.03%	30.72%	16.34%	10.46%	11.76%	5.23%	2.61%	0.65%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.45%	25.96%	20.63%	14.92%	11.29%	6.59%	3.23%	2.10%

[Pato del Muerto 53504]

Do you have all this info saved anywhere that you could quickly produce a graph of age group % over time in the past 3 months to see any shift youthward after vaccines started?

[BrazilHorn 6846]

15 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you have all this info saved anywhere that you could quickly produce a graph of age group % over time in the past 3 months to see any shift youthward after vaccines started?

Not sure if this gets to what you are looking for but here is compare in % increase in case counts from Oct 1st, 2020 to Dec 31st, 2020 vs Jan 2nd, 2021 to April 19th, 2021. Cases have always skewed younger in terms of total count.

As of 4/19 76% of all cases to date are <50 years old. It was the same share on Jan 2nd.

	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	80+
% Increase from Jan 2 to Apr 19	79%	94%	69%	50%	55%	55%	56%	58%	62%	52%
% Increase from Oct 1st to Dec 31st	75%	105%	78%	73%	70%	62%	71%	73%	69%	58%

[Guest Lobo]

I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

Speaking of Covid stats though, drove by the Burger Center after my mulch pickup.  It was completely staffed, dozens of workers at the ready and cops to guide traffic flow.  And I saw one car in that whole parking lot for vaccines.  thought that was weird.  The place has been jam packed for months.  

Edited April 20, 2021 by Lobo

[BrazilHorn 6846]

18 admits, 137 hospitalized and 118 cases today (not bad for a Tuesday case true-up day)

Cases higher than normal amongst younger folks

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/20 vs 4/19	0	7	22	27	26	19	9	7	0	1	118
% of Daily Change	0.00%	5.93%	18.64%	22.88%	22.03%	16.10%	7.63%	5.93%	0.00%	0.85%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.21%	10.47%	25.96%	20.63%	14.92%	11.28%	6.59%	3.23%	2.10%

[Armybrat 41408]

Oldfarts ftw 🤘

[dcar00 14971]

7 hours ago, Lobo said:

I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

 

we all have our price...

[Johnny Sack 8397]

19 hours ago, Lobo said:

I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

Speaking of Covid stats though, drove by the Burger Center after my mulch pickup.  It was completely staffed, dozens of workers at the ready and cops to guide traffic flow.  And I saw one car in that whole parking lot for vaccines.  thought that was weird.  The place has been jam packed for months.  

Dude, buy mulch in bulk.

[Guest Lobo]

i priced it but the delivery fee outweighed the savings on the mulch itself.  Unless you're going really crazy, but I only need 100-150 cubic feet each year.  It's fine to break up into a couple trips with at truck.  2021 mulch talk not going away.  

UT expanding their vaccination program today.  Anybody over 16, no appointment necessary.  Come one, come all.  Not sure which shot they're using though.  

[kevwun 16438]

UT is pfizer I believe.

[4th_and_18 709]

Buy mulch? I already pay for that in taxes. I just pick it up at Austin recycling. Takes a bit of work to load and unload but I get a truck bed full of mulch.

[StruggleBus 3922]

Speaking of Austin recycling, that Dillo Dirt stuff that hope depot sells will make your yard greener than a mother fucker

[InkaUtexas 26891]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Speaking of Austin recycling, that Dillo Dirt stuff that hope depot sells will make your yard greener than a mother fucker

Homeless poo FTW. 

[kevwun 16438]

With the added benefit that your yard will smell faintly of shit whenever it rains or your sprinkler runs.

[Guest Lobo]

25 minutes ago, 4th_and_18 said:

Buy mulch? I already pay for that in taxes. I just pick it up at Austin recycling. Takes a bit of work to load and unload but I get a truck bed full of mulch.

I used that stuff for a few years but I don't like the consistency of it.  We have a dramatic North to South slope to our lot of almost 15 degrees (thankfully it's very gradual over the course of 60 yards), and the free mulch just runs off like a mo-fo after heavy rains down to the creekbed.  I found two brands I like that are more coarse (I guess, is that a word for mulch?).  Plus I had to get rid of my wheelbarrow to make room in the garage for multiple kiddie vehicles and bikes.  I think my smoker box is up next.  

Back to Covid in Texas.  Only 4 Covid-19 deaths in Austin since Monday morning.  250 new cases since then as well.  60 more days and I think we can take a breath.  A mother of a girl in our kinder class invited herself, her other child, and her father over to the girls' playdate in our backyard this weekend.  Which I thought was very presumptive of her, especially since she added that neither her nor her father have had the vaccine but did test positive awhile back for anitbodies.  Dah Fuh?  Who brings 3 extra people to a playdate during a pandemic?  Especially if you don't know how long ago the antibodies formed, could be well over a year.  How is this a thing? 

[Snake Diggity 4714]

I went to my first "party" in over a year last weekend.  Until I got there I thought it was going to be <15 people from 3 households with all adults vaxxed and everyone staying outside.  It turned out it was ~25 people from 5 different households mingling indoors.  Of the 10 adults, 6 were fully vaxxed.  I was introduced to one of the unvaxxed guys and he brings it up, saying "I'm just too stubborn and just don't want to be told what to do.  Besides, I am pretty sure I had it in FEBRUARY 2020, so what could be better than the immunity I got from that?"  This is a college educated professional.  Fuck me.

[Guest Lobo]

^

This shit is happening everywhere, every single day.  Makes you miss the guy who opened up the party conversation with, "As a vegan...I just want to say..." or "So this woman from my cross-fit class.  Well I can't remember if she's from my MWF class or my weekend advanced class" or "Let me just add, as someone who has lived in New York..."

The "reason why I haven't gotten the vaccine yet is because..." stories are somehow considered interesting by the speaker.  Da fuh? 

[StruggleBus 3922]

Man, some of y'all are still really careful after getting the vaccine. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I'm not going to lose any sleep worrying about who is and isn't vaccinated. My wife and I started getting a babysitter on Saturday nights so we can go to bars again. It's fucking great. 

[Armybrat 41408]

Lobo....What’s the protocol when meeting a jerk like that?

Edited April 21, 2021 by Armybrat