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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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40 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Lobo....What’s the protocol when meeting a jerk like that?

you interrupt them. so when they say:

54 minutes ago, Lobo said:

The "reason why I haven't gotten the vaccine yet is because..."

You finish the sentence by saying:

"...you're lazy or an idiot."

OK maybe not the most polite thing to say...

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54 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Man, some of y'all are still really careful after getting the vaccine. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I'm not going to lose any sleep worrying about who is and isn't vaccinated. My wife and I started getting a babysitter on Saturday nights so we can go to bars again. It's fucking great. 

This.  I will still wear a mask if other people require it or prefer it.  But we are fully vaxxed and immune.  I intend to act like it.  I am also encouraging everyone I know to get the vaccine.

I think by the 4th there needs to be no precautions at all.  Because by then anyone who wants the vaccine has had plenty of time to get it and be two weeks past the second shot.

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1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

This.  I will still wear a mask if other people require it or prefer it.  But we are fully vaxxed and immune.  I intend to act like it.  I am also encouraging everyone I know to get the vaccine.

I think by the 4th there needs to be no precautions at all.  Because by then anyone who wants the vaccine has had plenty of time to get it and be two weeks past the second shot.

I've started to "forget" my mask on outings to stores and restaurants.

Masks at restaurants seemed silly to me anyways:

  • You walk in the restaurant, put the mask on
  • Keep the mask on for the 15-20 seconds it takes you to walk to your table
  • Sit down, then take off the mask
  • Keep the mask off for the 45-60 minutes you are at the restaurant
  • After you are done with the meal, put the mask back on for the 15-20 seconds it takes you to walk to the door
  • Then take off mask

🤪

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3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I've started to "forget" my mask on outings to stores and restaurants.

Masks at restaurants seemed silly to me anyways:

  • You walk in the restaurant, put the mask on
  • Keep the mask on for the 15-20 seconds it takes you to walk to your table
  • Sit down, then take off the mask
  • Keep the mask off for the 45-60 minutes you are at the restaurant
  • After you are done with the meal, put the mask back on for the 15-20 seconds it takes you to walk to the door
  • Then take off mask

🤪

I will wear one if there is a sign requiring or encouraging mask usage, because despite what people on this board think of me, I actually try really hard not to be a dick in real life.  It was nice at church Sunday in bible class everyone took off their masks.  I think everyone in the room, which spans the political spectrum evenly but is almost exclusively professionals and corporate executives from 30 to 50, had been vaccinated. I actually have missed seeing the faces of my church friends.

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5 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I went to my first "party" in over a year last weekend.  Until I got there I thought it was going to be <15 people from 3 households with all adults vaxxed and everyone staying outside.  It turned out it was ~25 people from 5 different households mingling indoors.  Of the 10 adults, 6 were fully vaxxed.  I was introduced to one of the unvaxxed guys and he brings it up, saying "I'm just too stubborn and just don't want to be told what to do.  Besides, I am pretty sure I had it in FEBRUARY 2020, so what could be better than the immunity I got from that?"  This is a college educated professional.  Fuck me.

Sorry bro, I don't like listening to "the man."  That was you with the hazmat suit and 4 masks on?  

Also, I thought you'd be taller.  

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4 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Man, some of y'all are still really careful after getting the vaccine. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I'm not going to lose any sleep worrying about who is and isn't vaccinated. My wife and I started getting a babysitter on Saturday nights so we can go to bars again. It's fucking great. 

I’m not careful now that I’m vaxxed.  I am immune, I do what I want; that’s why I went to a party and didn’t leave even after realizing it was ignoring all covid considerations.  But fuckheads like that guy at that party are extending the pandemic by choosing not to gain immunity.

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On 4/19/2021 at 6:40 AM, Armybrat said:

We (both vaccinated by early March) have made 3 trips to Costco in the past six months. The first two were early in the morning, so very few customers were there. Last week we made the mistake of going Thursday afternoon, as there were a lot of them in the store. But we still managed to avoid any close contact. 

an hour before closing on a weekday is when you want to visit Costco if you want to avoid the crowds.

Edited by Chewbacca
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81 new cases and 25 admits for Travis County today (as noted above), what is a little concerning is the day over day jump in hospitalizations. Travis Co is now at 151 (1st time since 3/26 to be over 150). This is up 14 in the hospital day over day, this is one of our highest single day increases since late Feb.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/21 vs 4/20 1 7 11 25 15 5 10 1 5 1 81
% of Daily Change 1.23% 8.64% 13.58% 30.86% 18.52% 6.17% 12.35% 1.23% 6.17% 1.23%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.22% 10.47% 25.96% 20.63% 14.91% 11.28% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  
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22 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I went to my first "party" in over a year last weekend.  Until I got there I thought it was going to be <15 people from 3 households with all adults vaxxed and everyone staying outside.  It turned out it was ~25 people from 5 different households mingling indoors.  Of the 10 adults, 6 were fully vaxxed.  I was introduced to one of the unvaxxed guys and he brings it up, saying "I'm just too stubborn and just don't want to be told what to do.  Besides, I am pretty sure I had it in FEBRUARY 2020, so what could be better than the immunity I got from that?"  This is a college educated professional.  Fuck me.

The vaccine has shed light on some odd opinions from people. I learned that some friends of mine believe that healthcare overall conspires to keep people sick to continue making $$$ from them.

And even stranger how the anti-covid-vaxxers don't mind sharing their odd reasons why. I guess they are just really honest and/or think they're talking to kindred spirits.

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41 minutes ago, kevwun said:

We're not getting to herd immunity because we will be lucky to crack 50% vaccinated in people under 65 in wide swaths of the country.

 

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

This is the concern.

There are two paths to herd immunity-- vaccination, or infection.  Those that eschew the former are tacitly choosing the latter.

But one way or the other, we'll get to herd immunity.

 

 

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16 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

81 new cases and 25 admits for Travis County today (as noted above), what is a little concerning is the day over day jump in hospitalizations. Travis Co is now at 151 (1st time since 3/26 to be over 150). This is up 14 in the hospital day over day, this is one of our highest single day increases since late Feb.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/21 vs 4/20 1 7 11 25 15 5 10 1 5 1 81
% of Daily Change 1.23% 8.64% 13.58% 30.86% 18.52% 6.17% 12.35% 1.23% 6.17% 1.23%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.22% 10.47% 25.96% 20.63% 14.91% 11.28% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  

While not a great sign, if this is our new peak level, with opening up, that is great sign 

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59 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

There are two paths to herd immunity-- vaccination, or infection.  Those that eschew the former are tacitly choosing the latter.

But one way or the other, we'll get to herd immunity.

 

 

Not necessarily.  High enough vaccinated % surely gets herd immunity, and if everyone was on board could be done by Memorial Day.  Herd immunity thru infection is no guarantee, as it could move slowly enough to allow for the introduction of vaccine resistant variants and/or outlast existing immunity (anecdotally I know someone who was infected early summer last year and had antibodies tested afterward then again recently; the recent test showed no antibodies).

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41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Not necessarily.  High enough vaccinated % surely gets herd immunity, and if everyone was on board could be done by Memorial Day.  Herd immunity thru infection is no guarantee, as it could move slowly enough to allow for the introduction of vaccine resistant variants and/or outlast existing immunity (anecdotally I know someone who was infected early summer last year and had antibodies tested afterward then again recently; the recent test showed no antibodies).

Reinfection is still infection, and is a path to herd immunity.  

I never said it would happen quickly.

But eventually it WILL happen, one way or another.

And antibodies are just one component of the human body's immune response, the t-cells and b-cells also help fight off infection and some studies have shown they remain longer than antibodies.

But really, I don't believe this coronavirus is EVER going to be eradicated.  I do however believe that ultimately humans will develop enough resistance to it, that it will eventually become just another in a long list of viruses that attack humans on an annual basis, and can make us mildly sick, but aren't near the killer the C19 currently is.

Edited by utee94
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Only 49 cases and 15 admits in Travis County today. There are currently 146 people hospitalized. Only 34 people in ICU (of the 146). This is lowest since mid October.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/22 vs 4/21 2 3 10 15 9 4 3 0 1 2 49
% of Daily Change 4.08% 6.12% 20.41% 30.61% 18.37% 8.16% 6.12% 0.00% 2.04% 4.08%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.22% 10.48% 25.97% 20.63% 14.91% 11.28% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  
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On 4/21/2021 at 11:31 AM, Snake Diggity said:

I went to my first "party" in over a year last weekend.  Until I got there I thought it was going to be <15 people from 3 households with all adults vaxxed and everyone staying outside.  It turned out it was ~25 people from 5 different households mingling indoors.  Of the 10 adults, 6 were fully vaxxed.  I was introduced to one of the unvaxxed guys and he brings it up, saying "I'm just too stubborn and just don't want to be told what to do.  Besides, I am pretty sure I had it in FEBRUARY 2020, so what could be better than the immunity I got from that?"  This is a college educated professional.  Fuck me.

So are you dead yet?

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8 hours ago, utee94 said:

 

There are two paths to herd immunity-- vaccination, or infection.  Those that eschew the former are tacitly choosing the latter.

But one way or the other, we'll get to herd immunity.

 

 

Inoculation is preferred to infection because infection gives the virus that many million more chances to incorrectly replicate and develop a beneficial (to it) mutation that sidesteps our vaccine prophylaxis. 

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22 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Inoculation is preferred to infection because infection gives the virus that many million more chances to incorrectly replicate and develop a beneficial (to it) mutation that sidesteps our vaccine prophylaxis. 

Sure.  I'm not disagreeing with that at all.  But there are millions of people in the US, and much worse, hundreds of millions globally, that aren't ever going to get vaccinated. So that's the direction we're headed.

Two paths, we'll get there one way or the other.  

Edited by utee94
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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Only 49 cases and 15 admits in Travis County today. There are currently 146 people hospitalized. Only 34 people in ICU (of the 146). This is lowest since mid October.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/22 vs 4/21 2 3 10 15 9 4 3 0 1 2 49
% of Daily Change 4.08% 6.12% 20.41% 30.61% 18.37% 8.16% 6.12% 0.00% 2.04% 4.08%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.22% 10.48% 25.97% 20.63% 14.91% 11.28% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  

Now that’s more like it. 

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While not a great sign, if this is our new peak level, with opening up, that is great sign 

What kind of sign would you say it is?
Sure.  I'm not disagreeing with that at all.  But there are a hundred million plus people in the US, and much worse, billions globally, that aren't ever going to get vaccinated. So that's the direction we're headed.
Two paths, we'll get there one way or the other.  It’ll just be longer and far more costly than it should be.

FIFY.
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Only 49 new cases yesterday in Travis County.  That's some good news.  But 4 deaths, I think that's the most we've had in well over a week.  

Feels like an uptick in vaccinations again back half of this week, which is nice.  

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Only 49 new cases yesterday in Travis County.  That's some good news.  But 4 deaths, I think that's the most we've had in well over a week.  

Feels like an uptick in vaccinations again back half of this week, which is nice.  

We just have to keep the vaccinations going.  Push them, tell anyone you can where and how to get them, tell them that everyone you know has gotten one, tell them that it made your dick grow two inches -- whatever it takes.

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19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We just have to keep the vaccinations going.  Push them, tell anyone you can where and how to get them, tell them that everyone you know has gotten one, tell them that it made your dick grow two inches -- whatever it takes.

It's the only way to end this thing.  Could not agree more.  I wish airlines would require it for flights. Shit, once everyone but the stubborn have taken it, offer up $100 for the J&J or second shot of the others.

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I was at Lake Granbury for the weekend so here is a two day view of cases. It was amazing how zero masks were worn or fucks given in Granbury. Was a bit jarring coming from Austin.

Past two days have seen 141 cases in Travis County and a combined 45 admits across the two days. There are 137 hospitalized at this time.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/24 vs 4/22 2 6 17 37 31 10 20 12 1 5 141
% of Daily Change 1.42% 4.26% 12.06% 26.24% 21.99% 7.09% 14.18% 8.51% 0.71% 3.55%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.22% 10.48% 25.97% 20.63% 14.89% 11.29% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  

 

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

I was at Lake Granbury for the weekend so here is a two day view of cases. It was amazing how zero masks were worn or fucks given in Granbury. Was a bit jarring coming from Austin.

Past two days have seen 141 cases in Travis County and a combined 45 admits across the two days. There are 137 hospitalized at this time.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/24 vs 4/22 2 6 17 37 31 10 20 12 1 5 141
% of Daily Change 1.42% 4.26% 12.06% 26.24% 21.99% 7.09% 14.18% 8.51% 0.71% 3.55%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.22% 10.48% 25.97% 20.63% 14.89% 11.29% 6.58% 3.23% 2.10%  

 

Outside of the major metro areas, covid precautions are pretty much over.  Folks have moved on.  

 

Hell, in the select baseball world (which I think you're part of), it's like there never was a pandemic for most.   

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54 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Outside of the major metro areas, covid precautions are pretty much over.  Folks have moved on.  

 

Hell, in the select baseball world (which I think you're part of), it's like there never was a pandemic for most.   

True that on select baseball. Crazy thing is with the teams from some of the smaller towns (her's looking at you Liberty Hill type teams). The folks saying "fuck it" to Covid are those that are in the high risk category due to obesity.

Crazy shit sometimes.

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13 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

True that on select baseball. Crazy thing is with the teams from some of the smaller towns (her's looking at you Liberty Hill type teams). The folks saying "fuck it" to Covid are those that are in the high risk category due to obesity.

Crazy shit sometimes.

Dude, doctors have been dealing with this, talking to brick walls, forever. Welcome to the world of medicine.

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31 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

True that on select baseball. Crazy thing is with the teams from some of the smaller towns (her's looking at you Liberty Hill type teams). The folks saying "fuck it" to Covid are those that are in the high risk category due to obesity.

Crazy shit sometimes.

If they are young enough to have youth baseball players, even if fat as shit, they have a 99 percent chance of surviving if they get COVID.  It isn’t all that deadly for the 45 and younger crowd.  Even the fat ones.  
 

And that small town demographic has kids young.  So it’s probably 35 average age. 

Edited by Johnny Sack
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3 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

If they are young enough to have youth baseball players, even if fat as shit, they have a 99 percent chance of surviving if they get COVID.  It isn’t all that deadly for the 45 and younger crowd.  Even the fat ones.  
 

And that small town demographic has kids young.  So it’s probably 35 average age. 

I hope it’s more than 99% because 1 in 100 aren’t odds I’d take with my life if I didn’t have to. I also don’t want to pay my insurance max out of pocket that would come with a week long hospital stay, nor do I want to take my chances on the long term respiratory issues that present in some of the patients.  
 

quite a few unlikely adverse outcomes that add up to some likelihood of one of them happening to you. 

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Dude, doctors have been dealing with this, talking to brick walls, forever. Welcome to the world of medicine.

If you’re trying to tell me that a triple triple at Whataburger followed by a can of Copenhagen is bad for your health, you can take your Nazi socialism back to China 

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My kids have played in 5 youth sports leagues during course of pandemic, all outdoor sports. Mask wearing soccer > football > baseball. Across all five, only one kid case we are aware of (asymptomatic, no secondary spread). One parent ended up in the hospital (wasn't tied back to sports). 

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8 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

So what’s the take on Texas opening up now? Good idea or bad?

Georgia has been pretty open and I’ve been happy about it.

It don't make a shit -- it's what is happening, so we have to roll with it.

I will say that EXACTLY what I was afraid of is happening -- we're hitting the stall.  Texas has fewer than 50% of eligible adults vaccinated, and demand has fucking PLUMMETED.  Places are begging walk-ins to get a shot.

Between anti-vaxxers and an uneducated/hard to reach segment of the population (think "really poor people"), we're going to have to struggle to get shots in arms.  I'm dead serious in saying that the HEB at Lamar and Rundberg ought to have someone standing on the corner with a bright orange sign in English and Spanish saying that vaccines are available right now, come in and get $10 in FREE lottery ticket credits!  Or some shit like that.  And maybe in multiple languages, at that particular corner.  We are now to the point where we need to do affirmative outreach, and offer incentives (I offered up the lottery ticket idea as a funny, but fuck it, if that would work, DO IT).

Because stalling at around 50%, even knowing some of the remainder has some immunity because they're also members of the groups who have been most likely to catch the disease, ain't gonna get us there.

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Same or worse here. But my take is: once everyone who wants a shot has gotten it we’re done. Open back up fully. If dumbasses want to remain vulnerable then fine. Let them all give it to each other. Their kids are fortunately not really at risk.

Thin the herd.

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26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I will say that EXACTLY what I was afraid of is happening -- we're hitting the stall.  Texas has fewer than 50% of eligible adults vaccinated, and demand has fucking PLUMMETED.  Places are begging walk-ins to get a shot.

image.thumb.png.a252df597f0b596cd04dead3de5cfc03.png

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/#new-vaccine-doses-anchor

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

It don't make a shit -- it's what is happening, so we have to roll with it.

I will say that EXACTLY what I was afraid of is happening -- we're hitting the stall.  Texas has fewer than 50% of eligible adults vaccinated, and demand has fucking PLUMMETED.  Places are begging walk-ins to get a shot.

Between anti-vaxxers and an uneducated/hard to reach segment of the population (think "really poor people"), we're going to have to struggle to get shots in arms.  I'm dead serious in saying that the HEB at Lamar and Rundberg ought to have someone standing on the corner with a bright orange sign in English and Spanish saying that vaccines are available right now, come in and get $10 in FREE lottery ticket credits!  Or some shit like that.  And maybe in multiple languages, at that particular corner.  We are now to the point where we need to do affirmative outreach, and offer incentives (I offered up the lottery ticket idea as a funny, but fuck it, if that would work, DO IT).

Because stalling at around 50%, even knowing some of the remainder has some immunity because they're also members of the groups who have been most likely to catch the disease, ain't gonna get us there.

Seems like we are still running pretty strong.  But I agree we need to incentivize people.  Give them $50 for the shot.  Do J&J so you only have to do it once.

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1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

Seems like we are still running pretty strong.  But I agree we need to incentivize people.  Give them $50 for the shot.  Do J&J so you only have to do it once.

seems like that could save money in the long run.  from the web, it said avg cost of C19 hospital stay with no insurance was between $35K-70K.  

- you have 550K deaths.  Let's just cut it in 1/3 and say 185K were in a hospital at time of death and received expensive care as the worst of the worst cases.

185K * $35K = $6.48B.  take that money / $50 incentive and you have a max potential of getting another ~125M vaxxed to save money on any hospital stays.  Insurance companies should be righting over to right to pay people to get vaxxed.  Some are, i think in forms of rebates or less taken out of your check for company provided ins.  But we as taxpayers who foot the bill for emergency room primary care should want to spend money to save lives and money by paying people to get vaxed. 

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3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

Same or worse here. But my take is: once everyone who wants a shot has gotten it we’re done. Open back up fully. If dumbasses want to remain vulnerable then fine. Let them all give it to each other. Their kids are fortunately not really at risk.

Thin the herd.

Well Yes But Actually No GIF by walter_

The problem with a large (read: >30%) chunk of unvaccinated people is that it gives COVID enough breathing room and space to stick around and potentially mutate and generally remain a nuisance, rather than getting stamped out all the way. If it sticks around longer, and has a bigger population to mutate in, then we're necessarily going to have a greater risk of it fucking our shit up again.

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Here is two day view of Sunday/Monday for Travis County. 165 cases combined over last two days, 31 admits and 138 people hospitalized.

Looks like some true up in the 80+ took place as they've dropped by two.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/26 vs 4/24 1 8 24 49 44 19 12 7 3 -2 165
% of Daily Change 0.61% 4.85% 14.55% 29.70% 26.67% 11.52% 7.27% 4.24% 1.82% -1.21%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.22% 10.49% 25.97% 20.65% 14.89% 11.28% 6.57% 3.22% 2.10%  
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9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It don't make a shit -- it's what is happening, so we have to roll with it.

I will say that EXACTLY what I was afraid of is happening -- we're hitting the stall.  Texas has fewer than 50% of eligible adults vaccinated, and demand has fucking PLUMMETED.  Places are begging walk-ins to get a shot.

Between anti-vaxxers and an uneducated/hard to reach segment of the population (think "really poor people"), we're going to have to struggle to get shots in arms.  I'm dead serious in saying that the HEB at Lamar and Rundberg ought to have someone standing on the corner with a bright orange sign in English and Spanish saying that vaccines are available right now, come in and get $10 in FREE lottery ticket credits!  Or some shit like that.  And maybe in multiple languages, at that particular corner.  We are now to the point where we need to do affirmative outreach, and offer incentives (I offered up the lottery ticket idea as a funny, but fuck it, if that would work, DO IT).

Because stalling at around 50%, even knowing some of the remainder has some immunity because they're also members of the groups who have been most likely to catch the disease, ain't gonna get us there.

You can't make a Rundberg HEB employee take the risk of being shot while standing out on that corner. 

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11 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Do J&J so you only have to do it once.

Is J&J an option again?  I’m coming home for a few days and want to get vaccinated, but will not be able to guarantee I’ll make it back for a second. In fact I’m certain I won’t.  And not really excited about catching the second shot ass whipping in a crappy hotel across the country.   Kinda stuck and it’s starting to piss me off. 

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After thinking about it, I’m not sure how much risk of mutation it adds to have 100M unvaccinated Americans. There are going to be BILLIONS of unvaxxed people around the world till at least November 2022. The US unvaxxed are just a drop in the bucket.

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10 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Is J&J an option again?  I’m coming home for a few days and want to get vaccinated, but will not be able to guarantee I’ll make it back for a second. In fact I’m certain I won’t.  And not really excited about catching the second shot ass whipping in a crappy hotel across the country.   Kinda stuck and it’s starting to piss me off. 

Turned back on in Texas.  A couple of CVS locations have appointments for J&J available tomorrow.

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