COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[utee94 15862]

31 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Based on hospitalization rates of the various age groups, from that group of 92 cases, we would expect about 3 admits.  And that’s been the rough number and distribution for a few weeks now, which is why I’m confused as to why we are still seeing 15-20 admits every day.  Hell, from the previous day’s 40 cases, we should expect only 1 admit based on the age distribution.

Either the variant is hospitalizing younger people at a MUCH higher rate than before, or the data is wonky.  Because it’s not that people aren’t getting tested until they are very sick because the positivity rate has stayed low (~4%).

It was speculated earlier, that as the number of severe cases has fallen,  hospitals are now admitting somewhat less severe cases, that previously had been turned away.  I obviously don't have any idea whether or not that is true, but it's one possible explanation for wonky data.

[BrazilHorn 6633]

4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

It was speculated earlier, that as the number of severe cases has fallen,  hospitals are now admitting somewhat less severe cases, that previously had been turned away.  I obviously don't have any idea whether or not that is true, but it's one possible explanation for wonky data.

That's what my thought is. Is that now we have the ability to care for folks of moderate severity that during the peak were told to convalesce at home.

No way to really prove this but it would seem to explain some of the admit numbers vs cases.

[utee94 15862]

5 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

That's what my thought is. Is that now we have the ability to care for folks of moderate severity that during the peak were told to convalesce at home.

No way to really prove this but it would seem to explain some of the admit numbers vs cases.

If ICU/vent/death numbers continue to decline, while admit numbers stay relatively steady, that would be a logical conclusion.  Or perhaps there's been some change to the way they're categorizing admits, but that seems less likely.

 

[smoky 840]

Do they publish zip codes of where the new positive cases / hospital admits are coming from?

If so, let's retrofit the ice cream trucks with moderna freezers and drive around.

[BrazilHorn 6633]

15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

If ICU/vent/death numbers continue to decline, while admit numbers stay relatively steady, that would be a logical conclusion.  Or perhaps there's been some change to the way they're categorizing admits, but that seems less likely.

 

Looks like that may be case for a month over month compare of 7 day averages for various metrics. You can see admits holding steady May vs April while all other measures declining. Looking at June for this will be good tell to see if trend continues.

7 Day Avg	Cases	Admits	Hosp	ICU	Vent
1-Jan	479.57	69.28	422.14	133.43	76.57
1-Feb	557.28	68.42	538.14	157	97
1-Mar	242.14	29.42	284.28	93.28	68.42
1-Apr	103	16.42	146.14	53.57	30.57
1-May	94.71	17	132.86	45.29	23.27

[bschoolprof 6272]

Similar to the above, my recent thought on the hospitalization numbers is perhaps hospitals are increasingly "admitting" more mild cases (even on an outpatient basis) in order to give treatments like drugs or plasma. But the problem with this theory is that the ICU census has remained stubbornly flat statewide for over a month, and it has even ticked up locally in the last week.  

Another, uncomfortable, possibility is perhaps the vaccines aren't as effective in the real world in preventing severe disease as they were in the trials. I hope that's not the case.  

[The Dog 44140]

11 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Another, uncomfortable, possibility is perhaps the vaccines aren't as effective in the real world in preventing severe disease as they were in the trials. I hope that's not the case.  

It's not.

Here's just one example from Qatar. Similar results have been observed in real world studies elsewhere:

these aren't vaccinated people going to the hospital with COVID. There are still a LOT of people in Travis and Williamson counties who have yet to get fully vaccinated.

[utee94 15862]

22 minutes ago, The Dog said:

these aren't vaccinated people going to the hospital with COVID. There are still a LOT of people in Travis and Williamson counties who have yet to get fully vaccinated.

That's certainly true.  I'm under 50 so without lying about nonexistent medical conditions, I wasn't even allowed to sign up until 3/29 and I couldn't find an available appointment within 15 miles of my house until 4/19.  I won't get shot #2 until 5/17 and so won't be fully vaccinated until two weeks later on 5/31.

And I'm someone that started looking for appointments on the first day I was eligible to sign up for one.

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of just how many people haven't yet had the chance to get fully vaccinated.  And I understand that the numbers are declining, but they're not zero.  This is going to take a while.

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by utee94

[South Austin 52604]

38 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Another, uncomfortable, possibility is perhaps the vaccines aren't as effective in the real world in preventing severe disease as they were in the trials. I hope that's not the case.  

Do we know whether any of these admits are patients who have been fully-vaccinated?

[bschoolprof 6272]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Do we know whether any of these admits are patients who have been fully-vaccinated?

Nope - wish we did. 

I agree with the dog BTW.  

I was just hopeful that with a substantial part of the population vaccinated and substantial part that's already had Covid, the ICU numbers would fall off more than they have.  I guess the unvaccinated/uninfected are partying enough like rockstars to keep that from happening.  

[The Dog 44140]

6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think a lot of people have an unrealistic view of just how many people haven't yet had the chance to get fully vaccinated.  And I understand that the numbers are declining, but they're not zero.  This is going to take a while.

 

Yup. And remember most of the country didn't open up vaccines to all adults until April 1st. That means that the earliest many people will be eligible is a week from now and keep in mind many weren't able to get in for just the first shot until recently. The west coast states (California, Oregon, and Washington) only made all adults eligible 3 weeks ago, so even though they have done a great job with their initial roll outs they still have large groups who are yet to even benefit from the first shot as of yet.

[dcar00 14365]

4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Looks like that may be case for a month over month compare of 7 day averages for various metrics. You can see admits holding steady May vs April while all other measures declining. Looking at June for this will be good tell to see if trend continues.

7 Day Avg	Cases	Admits	Hosp	ICU	Vent
1-Jan	479.57	69.28	422.14	133.43	76.57
1-Feb	557.28	68.42	538.14	157	97
1-Mar	242.14	29.42	284.28	93.28	68.42
1-Apr	103	16.42	146.14	53.57	30.57
1-May	94.71	17	132.86	45.29	23.27

good stuff BH.  do you have the death numbers for this set?

[BrazilHorn 6633]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

good stuff BH.  do you have the death numbers for this set?

Got deaths as close to dates as I could. Travis County reports deaths on Saturdays typically as an aggregated weekly number. I put the date the deaths are reported next to the number of deaths.

7 Day Avg	Cases	Admits	Hosp	ICU	Vent	Deaths
1-Jan	479.57	69.28	422.14	133.43	76.57	19	w/e Jan 2nd
1-Feb	557.28	68.42	538.14	157	97	29	w/e Feb 6th
1-Mar	242.14	29.42	284.28	93.28	68.42	23	w/e Mar 6th
1-Apr	103	16.42	146.14	53.57	30.57	7	w/e Apr 3rd
1-May	94.71	17	132.86	45.29	23.27	9	w/e May 1st

[BrazilHorn 6633]

Another good day for Travis County, 75 cases, 15 admits & 105 hospitalized. (37 ICU & 18 Vent). We haven't been <100 hospitalized since last Halloween.

Fingers crossed we get there in next couple of days.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/6 vs 5/5	0	2	8	24	15	5	12	6	1	2	75
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.67%	10.67%	32.00%	20.00%	6.67%	16.00%	8.00%	1.33%	2.67%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.87%	11.28%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

[Snake Diggity 4627]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another good day for Travis County, 75 cases, 15 admits & 105 hospitalized. (37 ICU & 18 Vent). We haven't been <100 hospitalized since last Halloween.

Fingers crossed we get there in next couple of days.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/6 vs 5/5	0	2	8	24	15	5	12	6	1	2	75
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.67%	10.67%	32.00%	20.00%	6.67%	16.00%	8.00%	1.33%	2.67%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.87%	11.28%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

Again, from this data set based on reported hospitalization rates by age group we should expect ~2 admits.

One thought I did have is that maybe admits are coming from out of area (meaning people who get really sick from Hays or Williamson are being admitted to Austin hospitals).  So they’re not being counted in the preceding case count (or are in the case count for another area).  That would explain the high admit rate relative to case count.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[BrazilHorn 6633]

This is a two day combo on cases for Travis County as I am "Mr. Mom'ing" it this weekend as my wife (no pics) is out of town.

Travis County over past two days has had 149 cases (so not too shabby).

Deaths for w/e May 8 were: 7. They broke down as follows:

50 to 59 (3), 60 to 69 (2), 70 to 79 (1), 80+ (1)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/8 vs 5/6	1	18	19	38	28	27	8	4	4	2	149
% of Daily Change	0.67%	12.08%	12.75%	25.50%	18.79%	18.12%	5.37%	2.68%	2.68%	1.34%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.24%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.27%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

[Snake Diggity 4627]

55 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

This is a two day combo on cases for Travis County as I am "Mr. Mom'ing" it this weekend as my wife (no pics) is out of town.

Travis County over past two days has had 149 cases (so not too shabby).

Deaths for w/e May 8 were: 7. They broke down as follows:

50 to 59 (3), 60 to 69 (2), 70 to 79 (1), 80+ (1)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/8 vs 5/6	1	18	19	38	28	27	8	4	4	2	149
% of Daily Change	0.67%	12.08%	12.75%	25.50%	18.79%	18.12%	5.37%	2.68%	2.68%	1.34%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.24%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.27%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

So based on that spread, a few weeks from now we should see two days with 2-5 admits each.

Austin MSA has been down to Stage 2 (7 day moving average of daily new hospital admissions <15) for the last 2 days.

7 day moving average of cases in Austin MSA is lower than it has been at any point since before the first wave.

Edited May 9, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[XYZ 2154]

Yeah, but Texas didn’t really open “100%”.

[Bookman 4642]

I don't think fewer than 2,000 Covid cases/day is anything to brag about.

[Snake Diggity 4627]

There is just so very much wrong with that. What’s the message?  Is it just talkin shit to people who wanted to keep the restrictions?  Is he saying opening is the reason for the reduced cases/etc.?  Why use vague terms like “in forever” when the actual data is available and not hard to calculate?    Wtf is he trying to achieve with that tweet?

[Bookman 4642]

46 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

There is just so very much wrong with that. What’s the message?  Is it just talkin shit to people who wanted to keep the restrictions?  Is he saying opening is the reason for the reduced cases/etc.?  Why use vague terms like “in forever” when the actual data is available and not hard to calculate?    Wtf is he trying to achieve with that tweet?

I think he's trying to say that things didn't get worse.

[Deej 76920]

2 hours ago, Bookman said:

I don't think fewer than 2,000 Covid cases/day is anything to brag about.

 

[BrazilHorn 6633]

19 cases today in Travis County with 101 hospitalized and 12 admits. If we can drop <100 hospitalized it will be first time since mid October. Hopefully these 19 cases are real and not just a bad data day that will show up as a big bang on Tuesday (traditional true up day)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/9 vs 5/8	0	3	2	7	4	1	2	0	0	0	19
% of Daily Change	0.00%	15.79%	10.53%	36.84%	21.05%	5.26%	10.53%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.25%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.27%	6.55%	3.20%	2.09%

[InkaUtexas 26108]

I know it has been said before, but just want to reiterate. Appreciate the information you have compiled and provided. Will happily buy you a beer. Just bring your vaccination card......   

[Snake Diggity 4627]

2 hours ago, Bookman said:

I think he's trying to say that things didn't get worse.

Ok.  And?

[BrazilHorn 6633]

11 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I know it has been said before, but just want to reiterate. Appreciate the information you have compiled and provided. Will happily buy you a beer. Just bring your vaccination card......   

Happy to take you up on it and will bring proof of vaccination 🙂

[TexasPride10 577]

12 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Ok.  And?

He was called a Neanderthal for removing the restrictions, and many predicted that cases/hospitalizations/deaths would skyrocket because of his actions. He's defending himself by pointing out that those people were wrong.  

[XYZ 2154]

He’s talking shit, basically.

[utee94 15862]

9 minutes ago, XYZ said:

He’s talking shit, basically.

In response to the shit-talking initiated toward him, sure.  That's politics in the USA.  Each team constantly shit-talking the other one.  Tribal behavior at its very best.

[kevwun 15897]

It's like a blind man bragging about successfully crossing the street during rush hour.  Congrats, you got really fucking lucky through no skill of your own.

Edited May 10, 2021 by kevwun

[Texas Jeff 1945]

16 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Since the re-opening we have gone from a plane crash every two days to a plane crash once a week or so.  We've got that going for us, which is nice ... but still ... plane crashes, make 'em stop.

We have this magical potion available for free in stores near you that can stop the plane crashes ... enough for everyone over 16 to be covered by July 4th.  And it's sitting in fridges.

[Neonmoon 38130]

In hindsight, he was right. Vaccines work. Get your vaccines. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

16 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

There is just so very much wrong with that. What’s the message?  Is it just talkin shit to people who wanted to keep the restrictions?  Is he saying opening is the reason for the reduced cases/etc.?  Why use vague terms like “in forever” when the actual data is available and not hard to calculate?    Wtf is he trying to achieve with that tweet?

I think he's trying to say fuck you to Beto O'Rourke and others who said shit like Abbott lifting the face mask mandate is a “death warrant” for the state of Texas.

[Message Board User 12396]

21 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think he's trying to say fuck you to Beto O'Rourke and others who said shit like Abbott lifting the face mask mandate is a “death warrant” for the state of Texas.

Pretty much this.

Go to page about 1078 or 1079 in the main COVID thread to see all of the doomsayers predicting mass calamity and how the blood of Texans will be on Abbott’s hands.  

It was a bunch of Eric Feigel Dings up in here.

[Armybrat 40911]

56 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think he's trying to say fuck you to Beto O'Rourke and others who said shit like Abbott lifting the face mask mandate is a “death warrant” for the state of Texas.

Beto is nothing but a pandering little motherfucker peddling a big load of bullshit.

[Hate 20145]

Beto is nothing but a pandering little motherfucker peddling a big load of bullshit.

But that skateboard, though!

[Armybrat 40911]

Well hell, I had a wheelchair.

[Deej 76920]

32 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Beto is nothing but a pandering little motherfucker peddling a big load of bullshit.

I think the word you are looking for is "politician."

[Snake Diggity 4627]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

In hindsight, he was right. Vaccines work. Get your vaccines. 

Did I miss all of Abbot's tweets/speeches encouraging vaccinations and pointing to Texas' vaccinated % as the reason for opening up?

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Beto is nothing but a pandering little motherfucker peddling a big load of bullshit.

That’s a pretty good insult.

[Armybrat 40911]

20 minutes ago, XYZ said:

That’s a pretty good insult.

Well, I’ve had experience doing some of that myself.

[InkaUtexas 26108]

8 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Happy to take you up on it and will bring proof of vaccination 🙂

Pitcher of beer at the Posse East. 

[Message Board User 12396]

Just 651 cases today.  Yeah I know it's a Monday, but still.

 

[Anastasis 23485]

[Footballpants 121]

Did I miss all of Abbot's tweets/speeches encouraging vaccinations and pointing to Texas' vaccinated % as the reason for opening up?

Um yeah, you kind of did miss them. His Twitter feed is literally filled with the tweets you mention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Snake Diggity 4627]

10 minutes ago, Footballpants said:

Um yeah, you kind of did miss them. His Twitter feed is literally filled with the tweets you mention.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I just went and checked his feed and I had no idea he tweeted that often.  Too much for me to audit.  But he opened 100% back up when just 7% of Texans had been vaccinated, so the notion that completed vaccinations were part of his logic is fucking ridiculous.

 

[Hate 20145]

So in other words, you just want to be outraged? 

[Snake Diggity 4627]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

So in other words, you just want to be outraged? 

Who is this reply to? If me, you got a funny definition of “outrage”.