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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, XYZ said:

Unvaccinated rurals??? How dare they invade our beautiful Austin? I mean, what the fuck have those people ever done for us...other than grow the food that we eat. Fuck them!

After growing all that food they should get the fucking vaccine. Since it’s free and it works to keep you out of a hospital whether it be located in beautiful Austin or shitsville USA.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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Posted

38 cases in Travis County today. 20 admits (continuing the disconnect from case numbers) and 96 people hospitalized.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/20 vs 5/19 0 1 4 12 10 3 3 2 3 0 38
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.63% 10.53% 31.58% 26.32% 7.89% 7.89% 5.26% 7.89% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.01% 20.63% 14.85% 11.25% 6.54% 3.20% 2.08%  
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

38 cases in Travis County today. 20 admits (continuing the disconnect from case numbers) and 96 people hospitalized.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/20 vs 5/19 0 1 4 12 10 3 3 2 3 0 38
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.63% 10.53% 31.58% 26.32% 7.89% 7.89% 5.26% 7.89% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.01% 20.63% 14.85% 11.25% 6.54% 3.20% 2.08%  

We’re approaching a 1/1 case/admit ratio. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I am guaranteeing you that is the case.  It is not like Austin hospitals should refuse to treat them since they have capacity.  They are going to Austin because Austin has the better hospitals.  We have a lot of neighbors to our south who have chosen (wisely and I do not blame them) to be treated at hospitals in McAllen, Harlingen, Del Rio, Laredo and El Paso as opposed to the inferior hospitals in Matamoros, Reynosa, Acuna, Nuevo Laredo and Juarez.  You can look at the cases versus deaths ratios in those border counties compared to the rest of the state and it is obvious we have a whole lot of people getting sick in Mexico but dying in Texas.

I have argued when looking at Texas Covid stats, to get a fair picture of how the state has dealt with the disease, that folks who get sick in another country (Mexico) and come to Texas for treatment should not count as Texas hospitalizations or deaths.  Same with urban counties who treat rural county patients.

Since they have the capacity and likely will from this point forward they should of course agree to treat them.

I can pretty much guarantee you though that at this point if you have to be hospitalized for COVID in America there’s a 90 percent chance it’s because you are an anti vaxer dumbass. That seems to be what’s happening in Austin and given the case to admit ratio it’s coming from out of town idiots being brought here.

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Deej

Deej 76837

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I can pretty much guarantee you though that at this point if you have to be hospitalized for COVID in America there’s a 90 percent chance it’s because you are an anti vaxer dumbass. 

Perfect. 

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1945

Posted
Posted

BTW the fine print on the Travis County dashboard  for hospitalizations says:

"Metropolitan Statistical Area
MSA: Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, & Williamson Counties"

So it looks like that number is for the five county area.  Perhaps they are not all in Travis Co hospital beds.  Maybe they are.  But the stat appears to be for the MSA, not Travis Co.
 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

BTW the fine print on the Travis County dashboard  for hospitalizations says:

"Metropolitan Statistical Area
MSA: Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, & Williamson Counties"

So it looks like that number is for the five county area.  Perhaps they are not all in Travis Co hospital beds.  Maybe they are.  But the stat appears to be for the MSA, not Travis Co.
 

This is a good point since Williamson and hays do have good hospitals too. I doubt the rest of the counties are a factor in admits. But it still fails to explain the case to admit ratio which seems totally off.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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Posted

Another great day for Travis County. 29 cases, 91 hospitalized and 14 admits. Travis County won't report again until Monday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/21 vs 5/20 0 3 1 5 8 4 1 4 1 2 29
% of Daily Change 0.00% 10.34% 3.45% 17.24% 27.59% 13.79% 3.45% 13.79% 3.45% 6.90%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.24% 6.54% 3.20% 2.08%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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While cases aren't being updated for Travis County over the weekend, they did update the week ending May 21st mortality info.

Only two deaths this past week in Travis County. I started tracking weekly deaths by age group back in mid July and this is the lowest it has ever been.

There was one one the 40 to 49 age group and one in the 70 to 79 age group.

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23477

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Case levels below pre-1st wave levels.

 

More and more I have been thinking if there will be an “official” recognition of the end of the pandemic in the US, and what the criteria for that should be.

Not sure but I like topols goal of <1 case per 100k. Aggressive but fair. 

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utee94

utee94 15835

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Not sure but I like topols goal of <1 case per 100k. Aggressive but fair. 

I'm not sure it needs to be a hard and fast number, and case counts are always questionable to me due to increased testing at times, and decreased testing at times.

I think I'd go with something along the lines of what @Brisketexan has suggested, based on comparing it to the seasonal flu.  Once it has decreased below the threshold for hospitaliztions/deaths that we see in an average (or maybe even a bad) flu year, then it's officially reduced to nothing worse than other risks we've willingly accepted as a society, and therefore it's effectively over.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19122

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28 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I'm not sure it needs to be a hard and fast number, and case counts are always questionable to me due to increased testing at times, and decreased testing at times.

I think I'd go with something along the lines of what @Brisketexan has suggested, based on comparing it to the seasonal flu.  Once it has decreased below the threshold for hospitaliztions/deaths that we see in an average (or maybe even a bad) flu year, then it's officially reduced to nothing worse than other risks we've willingly accepted as a society, and therefore it's effectively over.

 

Probably close to 300 kids have died of Covid this year (maybe less- I saw 175 as of December 29th in my quick google).  

Strep throat kills like 1,000 kids a year. I've never heard anyone say that we need to mask kids up or distance learn b/c they have a 1,000 in 74,000,000 chance of dying of strep that school year.  That works out to a .00135% chance that your kid will die of strep, or 1 out of 77,923.  COVID right now is 1 out of 246,913.  

142 people die every year in transportation to school related events.  So- your chance of your kid dying of Covid slots somewhere in between school related transportation events and strep throat.  Nobody gives a second thought to that stuff.  Kids need to be in school and they need to be in school without masks. This thing, unless it mutates into something much much different, just doesn't need to have schools change how they would normally operate. We already have faced much higher death rate activities than this and shrug them off.  In other words we are there as it relates to kids.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

Posted
Posted
Case levels below pre-1st wave levels.
 
More and more I have been thinking if there will be an “official” recognition of the end of the pandemic in the US, and what the criteria for that should be.

Pandemic is by definition a global event so that’s probably a long way off. It’s not going anywhere in the developing world
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

Posted
Posted
On 5/23/2021 at 3:10 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, an amazing job and should get all the rep for it. Or perhaps we can send him tree fiddy. 

@BrazilHorn  Still got a few beers waiting for you. Name the day.  

 

Let me just get through this week and I will shoot you a couple of times for next week. Would be good to meet.

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CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2972

Posted
Posted

I will also say that I've followed this thread, and BrazilHorn's very thorough documentation of the daily numbers as a proxy for the state of Texas.  I live in the Houston area, but this has been the best place to get a thumbnail sketch of the trends in Texas, so another round of thanks to BrazilHorn.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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This is data that includes the weekend (as Travis County no longer does the weekend case updates), Monday & Tuesday. 91 cases in Travis County from May 21st to May 25th. Just crazy low case numbers. There are currently 95 people hospitalized and we have seen 16 admits yesterday, 14 admits Monday, 13 Sunday and 14 Saturday. So even with admit numbers over the past 4 days equaling 2/3rds of the current number hospitalized they aren't sticking and making hospitalizations grow.

We are back to late March/Early April of LAST year to see cases in the daily range where we are now.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/25 vs 5/21 0 7 9 21 20 11 14 9 0 0 91
% of Daily Change 0.00% 7.69% 9.89% 23.08% 21.98% 12.09% 15.38% 9.89% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.25% 6.55% 3.20% 2.08%  
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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1746

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Posted
On 5/24/2021 at 10:42 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Probably close to 300 kids have died of Covid this year (maybe less- I saw 175 as of December 29th in my quick google).  

Strep throat kills like 1,000 kids a year. I've never heard anyone say that we need to mask kids up or distance learn b/c they have a 1,000 in 74,000,000 chance of dying of strep that school year.  That works out to a .00135% chance that your kid will die of strep, or 1 out of 77,923.  COVID right now is 1 out of 246,913.  

142 people die every year in transportation to school related events.  So- your chance of your kid dying of Covid slots somewhere in between school related transportation events and strep throat.  Nobody gives a second thought to that stuff.  Kids need to be in school and they need to be in school without masks. This thing, unless it mutates into something much much different, just doesn't need to have schools change how they would normally operate. We already have faced much higher death rate activities than this and shrug them off.  In other words we are there as it relates to kids.  

The issue was the adults in the building. Offer them vaccines first, along with medical professionals, and it’s easy to get reopened with fewer precautions. 

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WBT

WBT 20621

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

If you haven't read this yet, make it the next thing you read:

0393881555.01._SCLZZZZZZZ_SX500_.jpg

Maybe his best book, which is saying a lot.  

Does it have chapters devoted to Chad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg?  Didn't think so.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19122

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The issue was the adults in the building. Offer them vaccines first, along with medical professionals, and it’s easy to get reopened with fewer precautions. 

Yeah but they weren’t spreading and all the data said that (at least elementary school level). 
Lots of people had to go do their jobs with way more risk, at this point in time if they aren’t vaxed that’s on them. And I was in favor of teachers at front of the line. Deem it essential and treat them like medical professionals (and I’d have done the same for gas station clerks, HEB people etc. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

Posted
Posted

This is data for Wednesday for Travis County. Only 34 cases yesterday, 96 people hospitalized with 12 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/26 vs 5/25 0 0 4 8 5 9 2 4 1 1 34
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 11.76% 23.53% 14.71% 26.47% 5.88% 11.76% 2.94% 2.94%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.25% 6.55% 3.20% 2.08%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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Posted

Thursday data for Travis County, 43 cases, 90 hospitalized & 11 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/27 vs 5/26 0 3 7 10 12 5 3 2 1 0 43
% of Daily Change 0.00% 6.98% 16.28% 23.26% 27.91% 11.63% 6.98% 4.65% 2.33% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.24% 6.55% 3.20% 2.08%  
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4625

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Posted
3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Thursday data for Travis County, 43 cases, 90 hospitalized & 11 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/27 vs 5/26 0 3 7 10 12 5 3 2 1 0 43
% of Daily Change 0.00% 6.98% 16.28% 23.26% 27.91% 11.63% 6.98% 4.65% 2.33% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.26% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.24% 6.55% 3.20% 2.08%  

At this point 90%+ of daily admits have to be coming in from other areas that are not included in the case counts.

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utee94

utee94 15835

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

At this point 90%+ of daily admits have to be coming in from other areas that are not included in the case counts.

Yeah, I'd really like to see the numbers of Travis-only admits.  Ultimately it doesn't matter,  but it would be nice to be able to track the tail of this thing more cleanly, so we REALLY know when to give it a swift kick in the ass and tell it "buh-bye."

 

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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Posted

I can practically guarantee you that admits are being counted in Travis County from cases originating outside Travis County.

30 cases today, 19 admits & 89 hospitalized.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/28 vs 5/27 0 3 2 12 6 4 1 2 0 0 30
% of Daily Change 0.00% 10.00% 6.67% 40.00% 20.00% 13.33% 3.33% 6.67% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.27% 10.56% 26.00% 20.64% 14.85% 11.24% 6.55% 3.20% 2.08%  
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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6264

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This reporting is so fucking stupid and yields zero insight into COVID impacts in Travis County.  

Agreed. Whether it's an out-of-county issue or the criteria for "admissions" have been changed drastically, or something else, the hospital admission/census numbers are no longer such a meaningful indicator of the severity of COVID in a locality or the impacts it has on the hospital system.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6618

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Posted

This is weekend/memorial day true up. From Saturday to Tuesday Travis County had 43 cases. Just unreal.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 5/28 vs 5/27 0 4 10 12 13 2 2 0 0 0 43
% of Daily Change 0.00% 9.30% 23.26% 27.91% 30.23% 4.65% 4.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.62% 4.27% 10.57% 26.00% 20.64% 14.84% 11.24% 6.54% 3.20% 2.08%  
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