COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[South Austin 52456]

I'll be interested to see if those case numbers hold steady over the next couple days.  If they do, in light of the mass Memorial Day gatherings, it's further evidence that the vaccines are working.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Just now, South Austin said:

I'll be interested to see if those case numbers hold steady over the next couple days.  If they do, in light of the mass Memorial Day gatherings, it's further evidence that the vaccines are working.

Yep - agree - it was jam packed this weekend all around Austin. I had to go to Dick's in the Domain to get my son a new bat and then we grabbed an early dinner and I have never seen it busier.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

65 cases yesterday in Travis County, 78 hospitalized and finally a rational amount of admits with 6.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/2 vs 6/1	0	6	5	12	22	12	2	4	1	1	65
% of Daily Change	0.00%	9.23%	7.69%	18.46%	33.85%	18.46%	3.08%	6.15%	1.54%	1.54%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.27%	10.56%	26.00%	20.65%	14.85%	11.23%	6.54%	3.20%	2.08%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

48 new cases yesterday in Travis County, with 12 admits and 78 people hospitalized.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/3 vs 6/2	1	5	4	17	8	4	4	3	1	1	48
% of Daily Change	2.08%	10.42%	8.33%	35.42%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	6.25%	2.08%	2.08%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.28%	10.56%	26.00%	20.65%	14.84%	11.23%	6.54%	3.20%	2.08%

[South Austin 52456]

So maybe slight post-Memorial Day bump for those who haven’t been vaccinated?

[StruggleBus 3922]

22 minutes ago, South Austin said:

So maybe slight post-Memorial Day bump for those disgusting plebs who haven’t been vaccinated?

Agreed

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Cases don't update on weekends but deaths do. 3 deaths for the week ending June 3rd for Travis County. They break down as:

40 to 49 (1)

60 to 69 (2)

Another good week for Travis County in terms of deaths.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

This is update comparing 6/7 to 6/3. Only 84 cases in Travis County over that span. 10 admits today and 78 people hospitalized. Good livin in Travis Co right now.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/7 vs 6/3	3	5	9	27	14	11	5	6	4	0	84
% of Daily Change	3.57%	5.95%	10.71%	32.14%	16.67%	13.10%	5.95%	7.14%	4.76%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.28%	10.56%	26.01%	20.65%	14.84%	11.22%	6.54%	3.20%	2.08%

[VelvetFreeze 114]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:04 AM, South Austin said:

So maybe slight post-Memorial Day bump for those who haven’t been vaccinated?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

85 cases yesterday with 82 hospitalized & 14 admits.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/8 vs 6/7	-1	5	11	24	15	15	8	5	1	2	85
% of Daily Change	-1.18%	5.88%	12.94%	28.24%	17.65%	17.65%	9.41%	5.88%	1.18%	2.35%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.28%	10.57%	26.01%	20.65%	14.84%	11.22%	6.54%	3.19%	2.08%

[babysdaddy 2721]

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

[NoRagrets 1125]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

Anti-Vaxxers that read on the internet that the vaccines are made with (I’m not kidding) aborted baby parts.

I had a guy at work tell me that. He’s a moron that is also full Q.

[The Dog 44019]

4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

unvaccinated assholes. 

[Armybrat 40824]

[HouTex 1866]

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

Well, my 91 year old father was fully vaccinated in mid February and got Covid in late April from a caregiver (we think but can’t be sure). He had no symptoms though and was only tested because he went to the hospital for other issues. So he was one of the new cases that day.

New case numbers are interesting, but I’m mainly concerned about hospitalisation and ICU stats. Both are near the early April 2020 numbers in SE Texas. I’m guessing it’s the same throughout Texas.

[After irth 1243]

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

I gave it to your mom last night. 

[Deej 76755]

6 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

[bschoolprof 6252]

2 hours ago, HouTex said:

Well, my 91 year old father was fully vaccinated in mid February and got Covid in late April from a caregiver (we think but can’t be sure). He had no symptoms though and was only tested because he went to the hospital for other issues. So he was one of the new cases that day.

New case numbers are interesting, but I’m mainly concerned about hospitalisation and ICU stats. Both are near the early April 2020 numbers in SE Texas. I’m guessing it’s the same throughout Texas.

He was also counted as a hospital admit then I'm guessing.  Those numbers are less meaningful than they used to be, at least locally.  

[atomheartbevo 89630]

6 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

what kind of an asshole is still catching covid at this point?  

The kind that doesn't want to be turned into a human magnet?

Edit: Serious answer: There's a shitload that's still not vaccinated, and we have the Delta variant taking off in the US.  I know way too many that aren't vaccinated, even though they have access to the vaccine.

Edited June 9, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[HouTex 1866]

He was also counted as a hospital admit then I'm guessing.  Those numbers are less meaningful than they used to be, at least locally.  

Presumably. He was only in the hospital for a couple of days. The % of Covid patients in ICU is still a good indication of where we are. He was never in the ICU.

[Anastasis 23463]

25 today, so less fucked. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Over 9000 new cases in Texas yesterday. Lowest was Memorial Day with only a little over 100. Seems to be heading in the wrong direction. 

[Heme Doc 417]

18 hours ago, HouTex said:

Well, my 91 year old father was fully vaccinated in mid February and got Covid in late April from a caregiver (we think but can’t be sure). He had no symptoms though and was only tested because he went to the hospital for other issues. So he was one of the new cases that day.

New case numbers are interesting, but I’m mainly concerned about hospitalisation and ICU stats. Both are near the early April 2020 numbers in SE Texas. I’m guessing it’s the same throughout Texas.

He didn’t get COVID.  “COVID” is the illness you get from the virus.

He breathed in some SARS-COV2 virus.  But it didn’t make him sick.  Because he was vaccinated.  And his immune system kicked the shit out of the virus.  And they found dead virus pieces in his nose.  Which he can’t transmit to anyone.  Hospitals need to quit this dumbass policy of testing asymptomatic fully vaccinated individuals.  All his positive test tells you is that his vaccine WORKED.  

[CooterBrown 18004]

He didn’t get COVID.  “COVID” is the illness you get from the virus.
He breathed in some SARS-COV2 virus.  But it didn’t make him sick.  Because he was vaccinated.  And his immune system kicked the shit out of the virus.  And they found dead virus pieces in his nose.  Which he can’t transmit to anyone.  Hospitals need to quit this dumbass policy of testing asymptomatic fully vaccinated individuals.  All his positive test tells you is that his vaccine WORKED.  

I thought that vaccinated folks could still get and transmit Covid. Is that not correct? There was someone upthread or on another thread who is vaccinated, got covid, and quarantined. Was there no need for that precaution?

[idigTexas 2284]

37 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

He didn’t get COVID.  “COVID” is the illness you get from the virus.

He breathed in some SARS-COV2 virus.  But it didn’t make him sick.  Because he was vaccinated.  And his immune system kicked the shit out of the virus.  And they found dead virus pieces in his nose.  Which he can’t transmit to anyone.  Hospitals need to quit this dumbass policy of testing asymptomatic fully vaccinated individuals.  All his positive test tells you is that his vaccine WORKED.  

 

8 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I thought that vaccinated folks could still get and transmit Covid. Is that not correct? There was someone upthread or on another thread who is vaccinated, got covid, and quarantined. Was there no need for that precaution?

This is the issue in a nutshell.  What any of us does to fight this thing depends entirely on where we put our trust in the myriad sources of (mis)information.  Even for the level-headed well-informed unselfish follow the science types, getting to the cat fax of the matter is way more challenging than it should be.  It is way too easy for any mouthpiece to come across as authoritative and credible, and when you combine this with how quickly the guidance can change, it's an extremely frustrating situation.

I'm not trying to call into question any of the information quoted above.  I honestly don't know which is correct, but I should, and that's the problem.

[HouTex 1866]

He didn’t get COVID.  “COVID” is the illness you get from the virus.
He breathed in some SARS-COV2 virus.  But it didn’t make him sick.  Because he was vaccinated.  And his immune system kicked the shit out of the virus.  And they found dead virus pieces in his nose.  Which he can’t transmit to anyone.  Hospitals need to quit this dumbass policy of testing asymptomatic fully vaccinated individuals.  All his positive test tells you is that his vaccine WORKED.  

Yep. That was my point. Just because we see new cases, i.e. positive Covid test results, it does not mean people are “getting Covid”. That’s why I pay particular attention to the ICU surveys which are updated daily. Per Setrac, SE Texas ICU Covid numbers are near the lowest they’ve been since early April 2020.

[LurkingHorn 1066]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Over 9000 new cases in Texas yesterday. Lowest was Memorial Day with only a little over 100. Seems to be heading in the wrong direction. 

This has to be a true up, right? Perhaps there were some delays from Memorial Day weekend? If that is a true number, then that's pretty concerning. 

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

Well 95% effective also means 5% ineffective.  My understanding is that the vaccine works as a prophylaxis, such that your body can squash the virus, not just prevent you from being symptomatic.  But there’s that 5%. 

[VelvetFreeze 114]

19 hours ago, HouTex said:

Well, my 91 year old father was fully vaccinated in mid February and got Covid in late April from a caregiver (we think but can’t be sure). He had no symptoms though and was only tested because he went to the hospital for other issues. So he was one of the new cases that day.

New case numbers are interesting, but I’m mainly concerned about hospitalisation and ICU stats. Both are near the early April 2020 numbers in SE Texas. I’m guessing it’s the same throughout Texas.

more proof it's not a vaccine.  the jab you get is basically a thera flu for COVID remedy

when you get a measles or polio vaccine you don't get polio or the measles because it's a vaccine.

Everything about this event is backwards.  Close parks and pools last year because the fear of congregation.  Yet the protesters and the homeless around town escaped the disease while outdoors.  

 

 

[kevwun 15766]

No vaccine is 100% effective.  That's not how they work.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Only 25 cases in Travis County yesterday. Another great day. Last year on June 9th there were a 161 cases. (I thought it would be fun to start looking at YoY)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/9 vs 6/8	0	0	5	9	5	2	3	1	0	0	25
% of Daily Change	0.00%	0.00%	20.00%	36.00%	20.00%	8.00%	12.00%	4.00%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.28%	10.57%	26.01%	20.65%	14.84%	11.22%	6.54%	3.19%	2.08%

[Texas Jeff 1945]

1 hour ago, LurkingHorn said:

This has to be a true up, right? Perhaps there were some delays from Memorial Day weekend? If that is a true number, then that's pretty concerning. 

The Texas 7 day new case average bottomed out about a week ago but has doubled since then.  Hopefully it's a glitch in the data but it could be the start of a wave.  People of Texas, get vaccinated ...

[BrazilHorn 6586]

2 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

The Texas 7 day new case average bottomed out about a week ago but has doubled since then.  Hopefully it's a glitch in the data but it could be the start of a wave.  People of Texas, get vaccinated ...

For Travis County part of the ups and downs on the 7 day is we are dealing with fairly low case numbers so any spike up/down can cause a shift.

For example on 6/8 we had 85 cases vs 43 on 6/1 so that jumped 7 day up from 34.29 the prior day to 40.29 on the 8th.

Then on 9th we only had 25 cases vs 65 on June 2nd, so that reduction took us back down to 34.57 as the 7 day.

We are dealing with such relative small case numbers that a slight move up/down can really swing data.

Everyone still should get vaccinated as that is what is driving smaller case numbers (along with prior exposure etc), but I wouldn't freak out about the 7 day moving up/down 5-10 on a given day.

If it gets back to triple digits then it is time for worry IMO

[CycleTex87 2967]

One of the other sites I look at regularly is the Johns Hopkins map of the US. Troubling trend for Texas, and several other states, but Texas is bright red.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

[kevwun 15766]

At this point, a large party where there are lots of unvaccinated people could cause a notable spike all by itself.

[Anastasis 23463]

2 hours ago, VelvetFreeze said:

more proof it's not a vaccine.  the jab you get is basically a thera flu for COVID remedy

JFC. 

[The Dog 44019]

1 hour ago, CycleTex87 said:

One of the other sites I look at regularly is the Johns Hopkins map of the US. Troubling trend for Texas, and several other states, but Texas is bright red.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

Looks like the panhandle is driving it: 

And guess which part of the state has one of the lowest vaccination rates?

 

I think Williamson County had a big "true-up" the other day that is skewing the numbers. 

I also believe that a lot of the reporting for the border counties are routed through the HHSC Region 8 office in Dimmit county which is why they always seem to report high numbers. Just a theory though.

[JimmyJames 12271]

29 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Looks like the panhandle is driving it: 

And guess which part of the state has one of the lowest vaccination rates?

 

I think Williamson County had a big "true-up" the other day that is skewing the numbers. 

I also believe that a lot of the reporting for the border counties are routed through the HHSC Region 8 office in Dimmit county which is why they always seem to report high numbers. Just a theory though.

Specifically Lubbock and Amarillo. 

[The Dog 44019]

On Wilco - something is fucky with the NYT numbers. The official data from the Wilco PH department and HHSC doesn't match what NYT has at all. 

[Heme Doc 417]

9 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I thought that vaccinated folks could still get and transmit Covid. Is that not correct? There was someone upthread or on another thread who is vaccinated, got covid, and quarantined. Was there no need for that precaution?

I think the data shows fairly convincingly that a vaccinated person who is asymptomatic is not generating enough viral load to transmit.  If you’re symptomatic, that may be another story.  
 

So testing symptomatic folks:  fine.  If you test positive and have symptoms, then quarantine.  Vaccines only 95% effective at preventing symptomatic disease

Testing asymptomatic people:  dumb

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

Friend went in for a procedure and tested positive. She’s been vaccinated, only around other vaccinated people, wears a mask, and has no symptoms. Went and got a second rapid test which was negative. She is waiting on the results of a pcr test that we also expect to be negative. I’m guessing she will still be reported as a Travis county positive case. Second and third tests were done by a different group.

[HookEm 2463]

It annoys me that we sent so many vaccines up to the panhandle during the early vaccine rollout and had to wait months for them elsewhere. Many of those counties were giving them to young people because they ran out of olds who wanted them. Meanwhile in the Austin area we had old people waiting months (and likely dying).

Get vaccinated, moerans.

[Heme Doc 417]

8 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Friend went in for a procedure and tested positive. She’s been vaccinated, only around other vaccinated people, wears a mask, and has no symptoms. Went and got a second rapid test which was negative. She is waiting on the results of a pcr test that we also expect to be negative. I’m guessing she will still be reported as a Travis county positive case. Second and third tests were done by a different group.

They need to STOP TESTING ASYMPTOMATIC VACCINATED PEOPLE!  This pre procedure testing actually go against CDC guidance

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Only 32 new cases in Travis County yesterday. There were 133 on June 10th last year.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 6/10 vs 6/9	0	2	5	6	5	8	2	2	2	0	32
% of Daily Change	0.00%	6.25%	15.63%	18.75%	15.63%	25.00%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.28%	10.57%	26.01%	20.64%	14.85%	11.22%	6.54%	3.19%	2.07%

[South Austin 52456]

I spent all last week in Rosemary Beach, and nobody there is wearing masks. Not in restaurants, not in shops, not in grocery stores.  We didn’t wear masks from the time we stepped out of the airport until we returned. 

I come back to Austin, and this morning in Central Market maybe 25% of the folks were wearing masks, including both employees and customers in that figure. It wasn’t like that before I left for vacation. I don’t mind continuing to mask up, but is Austin starting to say fuck it with the masks?

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

Yes based on my experience as well

[Brisketexan 105079]

Based on just observations….last Monday was the turning point day for Austin, when the bulk of the population said fuck it, no more masks. And it was really almost overnight. Friday lunch downtown, most people wore masks. Monday lunch, very few masks.

I shopped at HEB yesterday for the first time without a mask, and I was far from alone, although there were still plenty of masks. But elsewhere, very few masks.

[Anastasis 23463]

Wife took the kids by quacks the other day and said it resembled nazi soup line germany.

[Viper 12104]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Based on just observations….last Monday was the turning point day for Austin, when the bulk of the population said fuck it, no more masks. And it was really almost overnight. Friday lunch downtown, most people wore masks. Monday lunch, very few masks.

I shopped at HEB yesterday for the first time without a mask, and I was far from alone, although there were still plenty of masks. But elsewhere, very few masks.

Similar for me in Houston this week. The stores have signs now that say masks are optional for the vaccinated so I went without. 

[Anastasis 23463]

Got some side eyes for going mask less in the Whole Foods out here the other day.  I still wear one in grocery stores typically, but for the first time in a year actually didn't have one in the car, got to the door before I thought about it, then realized how broken my brain has become.