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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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I'm at the point where I'm willing to sign up to gang tackle any morons refusing vaccination and hold them down while someone administers the shot.  Fuck those morons.  As a large number of them are apparently evangelicals and antigovernment conspiracy nuts, they can use the experience to feed their victimhood complex.  The granola eating yoga instructors that apparently make up the rest of the antivax crowd can simply go cry in their leotards afterwards or maybe burn some sage to cleanse their unclean blood. 

The win here is two-fold.  We'll stop further spread and mutation of this virus, and maybe, maybe, these yahoos will realize vaccinations won't kill you after they've been force fed a couple of doses.

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Guest Lobo

So y'all think that the same people refusing the vaccine because they don't think it's necessary for the first Coronavirus are gonna suddenly get science and go get it because it's necessary for a variant of a thing they don't really believe in in the first place?  Yeah, good luck with that. 

I don't think cigarettes are bad for me at all.  I won't be told about the risks of smoking.  You then come along with an even more dangerous cigarette (twice the tar in a more lethal deliverable mechanism) and think that'll scare me into believing the risks of smoking?  No, it'll only confirm what I thought about the first cigarette---it's fine and looks even less harmful in comparison to this new thing you're shouting about.  It's not confirmation bias.  It's Empowered Stupidity Bias.  That which does not kill me can only be repackaged to kill somebody else, but not me.  'Cause I'm strong and smart.  Not dumb like everybody says, I'm smart.  

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20 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

I'm at the point where I'm willing to sign up to gang tackle any morons refusing vaccination and hold them down while someone administers the shot.  Fuck those morons.  As a large number of them are apparently evangelicals and antigovernment conspiracy nuts, they can use the experience to feed their victimhood complex.  The granola eating yoga instructors that apparently make up the rest of the antivax crowd can simply go cry in their leotards afterwards or maybe burn some sage to cleanse their unclean blood. 

The win here is two-fold.  We'll stop further spread and mutation of this virus, and maybe, maybe, these yahoos will realize vaccinations won't kill you after they've been force fed a couple of doses.

I’ve seen some stuff out there that they are trying to claim that vaccinations are what drive mutation. 
 

apparently they are willing to believe that these little bugs realize that they aren’t infecting enough people and forcibly mutate themselves in order to counteract the vaccinated immune system. 
 

as opposed to the truth, which is genetic mutations are all random replication errors that occur as the virus replicates itself, and any that happen to be viable mutations live on. So the more we allow it to replicate, the more mutations occur and the more that are viable and beneficial to the virus.  
 

so yes, it’s the unvaccinated allowing this thing to burn through generation after generation that is leading to mutations and variants. 

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2 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

The Brits provide something like what you are talking about, but not broken out further by seriousness of cases (that I could find).  

Untitled

My good buddy lives in London, his wife had the first shot and then got covid. She is over it now but was in pretty bad shape for a few days.

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

So y'all think that the same people refusing the vaccine because they don't think it's necessary for the first Coronavirus are gonna suddenly get science and go get it because it's necessary for a variant of a thing they don't really believe in in the first place?  Yeah, good luck with that. 

I don't think cigarettes are bad for me at all.  I won't be told about the risks of smoking.  You then come along with an even more dangerous cigarette (twice the tar in a more lethal deliverable mechanism) and think that'll scare me into believing the risks of smoking?  No, it'll only confirm what I thought about the first cigarette---it's fine and looks even less harmful in comparison to this new thing you're shouting about.  It's not confirmation bias.  It's Empowered Stupidity Bias.  That which does not kill me can only be repackaged to kill somebody else, but not me.  'Cause I'm strong and smart.  Not dumb like everybody says, I'm smart.  

That's why they need to be tackled and force fed vaccines.  They're too stupid to function on their own and will take the rest of us down with them.

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6 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

That's why they need to be tackled and force fed vaccines.  They're too stupid to function on their own and will take the rest of us down with them.

Yeah it’s too bad the virus can’t just mow them down and be happy about it like most of us. It has to come after us as well. 

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1 hour ago, Samson's Wig said:

I'm at the point where I'm willing to sign up to gang tackle any morons refusing vaccination and hold them down while someone administers the shot.  Fuck those morons.  As a large number of them are apparently evangelicals and antigovernment conspiracy nuts, they can use the experience to feed their victimhood complex.  The granola eating yoga instructors that apparently make up the rest of the antivax crowd can simply go cry in their leotards afterwards or maybe burn some sage to cleanse their unclean blood. 

The win here is two-fold.  We'll stop further spread and mutation of this virus, and maybe, maybe, these yahoos will realize vaccinations won't kill you after they've been force fed a couple of doses.

Blacks and Mexicans are lagging both those groups FYI. 

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

So y'all think that the same people refusing the vaccine because they don't think it's necessary for the first Coronavirus are gonna suddenly get science and go get it because it's necessary for a variant of a thing they don't really believe in in the first place?  Yeah, good luck with that. 

I don't think cigarettes are bad for me at all.  I won't be told about the risks of smoking.  You then come along with an even more dangerous cigarette (twice the tar in a more lethal deliverable mechanism) and think that'll scare me into believing the risks of smoking?  No, it'll only confirm what I thought about the first cigarette---it's fine and looks even less harmful in comparison to this new thing you're shouting about.  It's not confirmation bias.  It's Empowered Stupidity Bias.  That which does not kill me can only be repackaged to kill somebody else, but not me.  'Cause I'm strong and smart.  Not dumb like everybody says, I'm smart.  

Where can I buy that second ciggy you described? It sounds awesome. 

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9 hours ago, orange dream said:

  Parents were tested and were positive also.  The mom and dad both developed a cough and the dad even ended up with a 104 fever.  County health tested them all again to confirm it was the Delta variant and it was.  They're in Kerr county.

This shit concerns me.  I'm vaccinated, but I'm still wearing a mask in stores and around large groups.  

 

 

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14 hours ago, utee94 said:

I disagree, I think society at large made tremendous sacrifices to prevent the spread of the illness-- for a couple of months.  

 

Society did make sacrifices, but not the ones required to eradicate the virus.  The response in most areas was adequate to slow the initial curve (“most areas” not being good enough to do the job, we needed a complete response), but our test and trace programs have been a joke from the beginning.  I don’t get the sense that there’s an adequate test and trace response now, even with such manageable/low case numbers and hospitalizations.

Either way, I agree with you that in hindsight, given the political climate since the onset of the pandemic that containing COVID was hopeless, and that if the vaccines are not effective against variants, we’re not going to contain it anytime soon.

My only current source of optimism is that the vaccines still appear effective against serious illness even if they aren’t effective against infection or mild illness.

Herd immunity is not possible in a scenario where a virus is mutating quickly and vaccines don’t work.

To say it’s impossible in theory to eradicate a virus is wrong.  The mechanics of stopping a virus entirely is pretty straightforward.  To say it’s impossible to eradicate in practice is correct, but only because people are selfish and stupid and governments are weak and inefficient.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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15 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Do not like.  If a variant infects vaccinated people resulting in severe illness, we are fucked.  It would be like the vaccines are worthless, and if we’ve learned one thing during the last 18 months it’s that society at large is unwilling to make the sacrifices necessary to prevent the spread of severe illnesses.  We’re fucked.

Nothing is fucked. Has there been a huge spike of hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated people? If not, then it don’t make a shit 

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36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Society did make sacrifices, but not the ones required to eradicate the virus.  The response in most areas was adequate to slow the initial curve (“most areas” not being good enough to do the job, we needed a complete response), but our test and trace programs have been a joke from the beginning.  I don’t get the sense that there’s an adequate test and trace response now, even with such manageable/low case numbers and hospitalizations.

Either way, I agree with you that in hindsight, given the political climate since the onset of the pandemic that containing COVID was hopeless, and that if the vaccines are not effective against variants, we’re not going to contain it anytime soon.

My only current source of optimism is that the vaccines still appear effective against serious illness even if they aren’t effective against infection or mild illness.

Herd immunity is not possible in a scenario where a virus is mutating quickly and vaccines don’t work.

To say it’s impossible in theory to eradicate a virus is wrong.  The mechanics of stopping a virus entirely is pretty straightforward.  To say it’s impossible to eradicate in practice is correct, but only because people are selfish and stupid and governments are weak and inefficient.

There are billions of people on this planet that will never have the means, opportunity, access, and capability, to get a vaccine.  Billions. 

It will continue to spread and mutate in that population, and will continue to be reintroduced into the vaccinated population, because there is absolutely no way to isolate those populations from one another.

 

 

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Looks like a little more "normalcy" for Travis County yesterday with 80 cases.

Hospitalizations dropped by 4 as well to 87, still much higher than July 1st but hopefully we will see a couple more days of decline.

Only 11 admits yesterday but admits have been decoupled from cases for some time.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 7/8 vs 7/7 0 6 4 14 17 8 12 14 3 2 80
% of Daily Change 0.00% 7.50% 5.00% 17.50% 21.25% 10.00% 15.00% 17.50% 3.75% 2.50%  
% of Total Cases 0.63% 4.30% 10.57% 26.00% 20.65% 14.86% 11.20% 6.55% 3.17% 2.06%  
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13 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Blacks and Mexicans are lagging both those groups FYI. 

This is no longer the case, although it was early on.  The last two or three months have almost completely closed any gap in vaccination rate based on race or ethnicity (I'm going to assume you were speaking about Latinos/Hispanics and not Mexican nationals).  The holdouts now appear to be die hard Trumpers, evangelicals, and the new age yoga crowd.  These three groups include members of all races/ethnicities.  

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1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Nothing is fucked. Has there been a huge spike of hospitalizations and deaths among vaccinated people? If not, then it don’t make a shit 

Not yet.  The point is that the longer this shit floats around the more likely new variants emerge.  The right shift in makeup and the vaccinations become a complete waste of money and effort.  And we'll all end up right back where we were a year ago.

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23 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

This is no longer the case, although it was early on.  The last two or three months have almost completely closed any gap in vaccination rate based on race or ethnicity (I'm going to assume you were speaking about Latinos/Hispanics and not Mexican nationals).  The holdouts now appear to be die hard Trumpers, evangelicals, and the new age yoga crowd.  These three groups include members of all races/ethnicities.  

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
 

catching up a little but as of July 6th still 8 and 13 points behind (with everyone way behind the Asians). And guess what/ the blacks and Hispanics aren’t behind the whites because they are disproportionately evangelical, Trumpers or crunchies. That’s the talking points but it’s not reality. 
If we care to actually fix this and get this right (I’m not sure that we should, I’m not sure that it matters) we probably ought to tailor this thing to be persuasive to the groups that are holding out, which means, you know, accurately identifying who those groups are and then messaging in such a way that could be helpful. 
 

Also- I don’t think it’s likely that any more vaccinations will be particularly helpful from a group perspective. My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine. I’m sure there’s a decent chunk of people there. Combine that with 67% of the total adult population being vaccinated and we should be well over the 70% that was touted as being necessary for hers immunity.  
If the Delta variant doesn’t stop because of vaccines then getting people vaccinated isn’t going to stop it and that horse is probably already out of the barn. If the delta strain isn’t sending vaccinated people to the hospital or morgue then it becomes a minor inconvenience on the same level as the flu or cold or some other irritation that we deal with that doesn’t involve us freaking the hell out. 
If the delta variant is sending people to the hospital and morgue (which doesn’t appear like the case right now- wishcasting from some in the media and authority aside) then I guess we are right back to March of 2020 with half or more of society opting out. Which would, quite obviously, suck donkey balls. 

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10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine.

This is inaccurate (source: NIH, study). Clinical data has shown that (at least the mRNA) vaccines offer more broad protection from COVID and its variants than simple natural immunity. 

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16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is inaccurate (source: NIH, study). Clinical data has shown that (at least the mRNA) vaccines offer more broad protection from COVID and its variants than simple natural immunity. 

I gave him the side eye and said why not do it (I would have) but it’s still conferring some benefit as opposed to optimal benefit. Those guys have some immunity even if not the greatest amount. It should be enough to get from 67 over 70 in the adult population. 

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My boss and his wife both tested positive yesterday. They were vaccinated. Her condition is currently very serious and she is on her way to the hospital. I don't know if it is the Delta variant or not, but would guess so. She is high-risk with some other immuno-diseases, so I'm sure that is playing a part in the severity. My boss says he feels tired like he has a cold but is otherwise ok.

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
 

catching up a little but as of July 6th still 8 and 13 points behind (with everyone way behind the Asians). And guess what/ the blacks and Hispanics aren’t behind the whites because they are disproportionately evangelical, Trumpers or crunchies. That’s the talking points but it’s not reality. 
If we care to actually fix this and get this right (I’m not sure that we should, I’m not sure that it matters) we probably ought to tailor this thing to be persuasive to the groups that are holding out, which means, you know, accurately identifying who those groups are and then messaging in such a way that could be helpful. 
 

Also- I don’t think it’s likely that any more vaccinations will be particularly helpful from a group perspective. My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine. I’m sure there’s a decent chunk of people there. Combine that with 67% of the total adult population being vaccinated and we should be well over the 70% that was touted as being necessary for hers immunity.  
If the Delta variant doesn’t stop because of vaccines then getting people vaccinated isn’t going to stop it and that horse is probably already out of the barn. If the delta strain isn’t sending vaccinated people to the hospital or morgue then it becomes a minor inconvenience on the same level as the flu or cold or some other irritation that we deal with that doesn’t involve us freaking the hell out. 
If the delta variant is sending people to the hospital and morgue (which doesn’t appear like the case right now- wishcasting from some in the media and authority aside) then I guess we are right back to March of 2020 with half or more of society opting out. Which would, quite obviously, suck donkey balls. 

Then you do not want to read Covid threads on any of the gun forums. They’re riddled with bukkus of mouth-breathing morons.... as far as the pandemic goes.

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1 hour ago, HoustonHorn said:

My boss and his wife both tested positive yesterday. They were vaccinated. Her condition is currently very serious and she is on her way to the hospital. I don't know if it is the Delta variant or not, but would guess so. She is high-risk with some other immuno-diseases, so I'm sure that is playing a part in the severity. My boss says he feels tired like he has a cold but is otherwise ok.

The vaccines never claimed to prevent catching covid but they seemed to prevent hospitalizations and definitely death. Seems like this isn't working out as well as thought. Perhaps it's due to the variants. Or perhaps the vaccines don't take for some people as well. 

Makes me think that I should start wearing masks again. I'm not quite as worried about myself but I spend some time around older relatives and I wouldn't want to pass covid onto them given these latest trends.  Everyone is vaccinated.

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
 

catching up a little but as of July 6th still 8 and 13 points behind (with everyone way behind the Asians). And guess what/ the blacks and Hispanics aren’t behind the whites because they are disproportionately evangelical, Trumpers or crunchies. That’s the talking points but it’s not reality. 
If we care to actually fix this and get this right (I’m not sure that we should, I’m not sure that it matters) we probably ought to tailor this thing to be persuasive to the groups that are holding out, which means, you know, accurately identifying who those groups are and then messaging in such a way that could be helpful. 
 

Also- I don’t think it’s likely that any more vaccinations will be particularly helpful from a group perspective. My brothers family, for example, isn’t vaccinated but they’ve all had the Rona and should have natural immunity that as helpful, or more helpful, than any vaccine. I’m sure there’s a decent chunk of people there. Combine that with 67% of the total adult population being vaccinated and we should be well over the 70% that was touted as being necessary for hers immunity.  
If the Delta variant doesn’t stop because of vaccines then getting people vaccinated isn’t going to stop it and that horse is probably already out of the barn. If the delta strain isn’t sending vaccinated people to the hospital or morgue then it becomes a minor inconvenience on the same level as the flu or cold or some other irritation that we deal with that doesn’t involve us freaking the hell out. 
If the delta variant is sending people to the hospital and morgue (which doesn’t appear like the case right now- wishcasting from some in the media and authority aside) then I guess we are right back to March of 2020 with half or more of society opting out. Which would, quite obviously, suck donkey balls. 

Frank Luntz has been brought in to develop talking points that will resonate with the largest group of holdouts - evangelical conservatives.  I don't know who they need to speak to the granola eaters, Deepak Chopra?  The relatively small gap between Hispanics/blacks and whites can be attributed as much to access as anything else.  Regardless of race, or whether or not someone is into yoga and natural healing, the common thread amongst the unvaccinated is largely a lack of education, which is the common thread for many large scale health related issues.  This brings me back to my original plan - gang tackling and forced vaccinations.

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The vaccines never claimed to prevent catching covid but they seemed to prevent hospitalizations and definitely death. Seems like this isn't working out as well as thought

Based on what?

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3 hours ago, Samson's Wig said:

This is no longer the case, although it was early on.  The last two or three months have almost completely closed any gap in vaccination rate based on race or ethnicity (I'm going to assume you were speaking about Latinos/Hispanics and not Mexican nationals).  The holdouts now appear to be die hard Trumpers, evangelicals, and the new age yoga crowd.  These three groups include members of all races/ethnicities.  

Donald Trump GIF by Election 2016

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1 hour ago, Samson's Wig said:

Frank Luntz has been brought in to develop talking points that will resonate with the largest group of holdouts - evangelical conservatives.  I don't know who they need to speak to the granola eaters, Deepak Chopra?  The relatively small gap between Hispanics/blacks and whites can be attributed as much to access as anything else.  Regardless of race, or whether or not someone is into yoga and natural healing, the common thread amongst the unvaccinated is largely a lack of education, which is the common thread for many large scale health related issues.  This brings me back to my original plan - gang tackling and forced vaccinations.

Jesus Christ I didn't realize they made people this fucking stupid. How far up the government's ass do you have your head? Surely by now you have perforated their colons.

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21 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Jesus Christ I didn't realize they made people this fucking stupid.

Mixture of stupidity and mental illness. I have a Qanon in-law and her bf who think vaccines are all about mind control (or conditioning you for future "vaccines"), along with things like chemtrails.  For reference, they take their trash somewhere out in the country and burn it, because they don't want somebody getting their DNA from it.

The family is somewhat concerned that she's liable to catch the Delta variant and end up in the hospital, and of course she has no healthcare, and has  underlying conditions.  They are concerned, because once things opened up, she made it a point to go everywhere without a mask and to brag to everybody she knew about going everywhere without a mask. 

I really don't know what it will take for these people to get their shit together.  Like @Samson's Wig said, education is the problem (look at the obesity problem in the US).

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I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

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6 minutes ago, HouTex said:

I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

If they think that already having had it is reason enough to skip vaccination, they’re stupid or mentally ill.  It’s not chicken pox. 

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6 minutes ago, Okie State said:
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:
I kind of wonder if we had to go through another shutdown phase (we won't), with the message being "okay, enough of you didn't get vaccinated, so we have to do this again", if that would drive up vaccinations.

No

Yea I don’t think so either. Warranted or not, another shutdown would likely result in some pretty nasty objections/protests.

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Just found out today that my kids piano teacher tested positive for Covid. She has had both Pfizer vaccines and tested positive for the Delta variant. Luckily my daughter and her teacher both wore their masks during the lesson on Monday. Hopefully since the instructor did not start having symptoms until Wednesday, my daughter was not exposed. Now if we can make it through the RSV that they were exposed to at the sitters unscathed we should be in good shape.

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4 hours ago, HouTex said:

 Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

Ask them why they aren't vaccinated.

"Already having covid" is a reason I've seen, but I'm willing to bet these people you know have some really dumbass reasons.  The anti-vcxx crowd has plenty of "successful" people who have dumbass reasons.  And I know a few who have no problem getting a pneumonia shot, a flu shot, or getting shots when they travel, but they balk at this.

Edit: Here's the thing:  The big clusters popping up are centered around areas with lower vaccination rates.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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7 hours ago, HouTex said:

I'm vaxxed, my entire family is vaxxed and the vast majority of my friends and coworkers are vaxxed.  I believe everyone who is eligible should get vaxxed.  But I know a great many people who are not vaxxed and they don't plan to get it.  Many here will think otherwise, but they are not idiots.  They are professionals (lawyers, financial types, etc.) or business owners and they are successful.  They have their reasons for not getting vaccinated--some have already had COVID, but calling them stupid or mentally ill is not helpful or correct.

Doing stupid shit isn't exclusive to dumb people. 

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