COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6586]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

This post has aged well.

No shit. Crazy to me people aren’t getting vaccinated. This shit was under control. 

[Brisketexan 105095]

No shit. Crazy to me people aren’t getting vaccinated. This shit was under control. 

The real virus is stupidity, and there is no cure.

It’s so fucking maddening.

[South Austin 52463]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The real virus is stupidity, and there is no cure.

Pandemic motto.

[MissingInAction 25036]

Top level leadership was forced back into the office Monday. Got a photo of all of them packed into a conference room with not a mask in site. My boss already put in her 2 weeks and refuses to go in. 

Luckily I was hired as 100% teleworking so I should be good. Getting my resume ready though.

[mchookem 16327]

30 minutes ago, South Austin said:

This post has aged well.

 

[SquishMitten 10403]

20 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And I'll be an asshole and say that I hope a bunch of those anti-vaxx/conspiracy and Qanon types get it and scare the shit out of their fellow anti-vaxx/conspiracy/qanon friends.

It's very easy for those fuckheads to pretend it's not any worse than the flu, and that it's no big deal, but start having their friends/family drop like flies and end up in the hospital, and see how fast their anuses pucker up

You should look into stories about former anti-vaxxer parents who eventually lost a child. They get viciously attacked for coming out and saying they were wrong. The anti-vax community turns on them and says they are fake, their children never actually existed, etc. It's unbelievable

 

ETA - Point being, it doesn't change shit for a lot of folks.

Edited July 21, 2021 by SquishMitten

[Surly Bevo 24908]

That’s fine but insurance could deny all claims for COVID expenses from the unvaccinated.

Let’s bomb the shit out of em. It sure would feel good.

Except the only problem with that approach is that unexpected medical issues and bills is and always has been a significant driver of debt defaults (mortgage, auto, credit card etc etc) usually behind things like loss of employment/income, divorce.

Like it or not there are a whole lot more issues that start to come in to play if those types of defaults start spiking (as we learned all too well a decade or so ago) and the economy is still already on enough uneven ground that to ratchet that shit up and throw it in the fire would be…..bad.

[CooterBrown 18006]

Let’s bomb the shit out of em. It sure would feel good.

Except the only problem with that approach is that unexpected medical issues and bills is and always has been a significant driver of debt defaults (mortgage, auto, credit card etc etc) usually behind things like loss of employment/income, divorce.

Like it or not there are a whole lot more issues that start to come in to play if those types of defaults start spiking (as we learned all too well a decade or so ago) and the economy is still already on enough uneven ground that to ratchet that shit up and throw it in the fire would be…..bad.

Two word solution: debtors prison.

[InkaUtexas 25906]

40 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Two word solution: debtors Dumbass  prison.

FIFY

[MissingInAction 25036]

Aaaaand we just got notice about first covid case on site. 2 days is all it took.

[Homercles 10205]

Should we change the title…what is this, wave four now?

[South Austin 52463]

So with a move to Stage Four supposedly coming in the next days, what are we really afraid of? 

I mean, while the numbers don't appear to be good right now, doesn't the anecdotal evidence show that the vaccine is doing what we expected it to do?  We all were told before getting our shots that vaccines had a high efficacy rate, but not 100%, and even if they didn't ward off COVID, they would minimize symptoms and prevent hospital admittance.  And by and large those currently getting fucked up by COVID are the unvaccinated folks.  My knee-jerk reaction, like that of many others, is "fuck 'em." 

For me, I guess the real concern is the vaccinated population of (1) children under 12 who can't get vaccinated (I have one), and (2) older or immunocompromised people who are better off for getting the shots but still susceptible to more severe symptoms and hospitalizations.  I don't take those folks likely, but how at risk are those groups to COVID and its variants? 

I wish we had that data, but I guess it's hard to assemble and evaluate as we're going through this next wave bullshit in real time.

[Guest Lobo]

I think it's kinda wave 4.5   

I've noticed the defenders of stupidity have been a little quieter than usual lately.  The overwhelming mutation was inevitable, but it's scope didn't have to be.  

Most of us are just worried about anything spreading to our unvacc'd children.  And probably well beyond giving fuck one about what happens to those adults who chose not to get vaccinated.  I hope they have Chicken Pox parties in one spot and bring back the mass grave trend.  It really is more eco-friendly when you think about it. 

Edited July 21, 2021 by Lobo

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

If local/regional pockets are 40/50% vaccinated, shouldn’t that ratio show in the peak of this spike?  And if so, can we handle it?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33868]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

So with a move to Stage Four supposedly coming in the next days, what are we really afraid of? 

I mean, while the numbers don't appear to be good right now, doesn't the anecdotal evidence show that the vaccine is doing what we expected it to do?  We all were told before getting our shots that vaccines had a high efficacy rate, but not 100%, and even if they didn't ward off COVID, they would minimize symptoms and prevent hospital admittance.  And by and large those currently getting fucked up by COVID are the unvaccinated folks.  My knee-jerk reaction, like that of many others, is "fuck 'em." 

For me, I guess the real concern is the vaccinated population of (1) children under 12 who can't get vaccinated (I have one), and (2) older or immunocompromised people who are better off for getting the shots but still susceptible to more severe symptoms and hospitalizations.  I don't take those folks likely, but how at risk are those groups to COVID and its variants? 

I wish we had that data, but I guess it's hard to assemble and evaluate as we're going through this next wave bullshit in real time.

I go on my first real trip/vacation in over 3 years in about 3 weeks. I have been fully vaxed (Moderna Mafia holla!) but with more and more stories about vaxed peeps testing positive, I don't want to take a chance on testing positive as well (have to submit a negative test 5 days prior to trip). It's fucked that I may have to spend the next few weeks self-quarantining, but if that's what it takes to go on my trip, so be it. It should be the other way around. You should be required to show your vax card to be out of the house right now. 

[South Austin 52463]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I go on my first real trip/vacation in over 3 years in about 3 weeks. I have been fully vaxed (Moderna Mafia holla!) but with more and more stories about vaxed peeps testing positive, I don't want to take a chance on testing positive as well (have to submit a negative test 5 days prior to trip). It's fucked that I may have to spend the next few weeks self-quarantining, but if that's what it takes to go on my trip, so be it. It should be the other way around. You should be required to show your vax card to be out of the house right now. 

I totally understand that.  Separate from one's health, it's a logistical/financial consequence of all those fuckers who aren't getting vaccinated but behaving like they have been.  All I can say is mask up your family and quarantine to be safe.  Hope everything works out for you.

[Captainant 27653]

My father in law just popped positive w/ mild symptomatic COVID, 3 or so months after his second dose of Pfizer. He had a fever and felt like shit yesterday but is mostly back to OK today. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33868]

^ffs, see what I mean?

btw, I've noticed in every case people testing positive have taken Pfizer (not saying that it's only Pfizer, but both news stories and FB friend anecdotes point to this being a Pfizer problem). Does anyone have evidence on whether those with Moderna vax are experiencing similar infection rates? 

[Brisketexan 105095]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I totally understand that.  Separate from one's health, it's a logistical/financial consequence of all those fuckers who aren't getting vaccinated but behaving like they have been.  All I can say is mask up your family and quarantine to be safe.  Hope everything works out for you.

My kids are both set to leave the country for their studies in the next 4-6 weeks.  If that gets fucked up for either one of them because other countries say "well, the US is full of brainless fucks who can't help but spread the Delta, and we can't risk even vaccinated Americans living in proximity to such dipshittery to enter our country," we'll all be rip-shit pissed.  

We've done what is necessary for us to pursue our business and educational interests.  If that is blown up by mouthbreathing morons, fuck those fucking fucks.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33868]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

My kids are both set to leave the country for their studies in the next 4-6 weeks.  If that gets fucked up for either one of them because other countries say "well, the US is full of brainless fucks who can't help but spread the Delta, and we can't risk even vaccinated Americans living in proximity to such dipshittery to enter our country," we'll all be rip-shit pissed.  

We've done what is necessary for us to pursue our business and educational interests.  If that is blown up by mouthbreathing morons, fuck those fucking fucks.

if? oh, it's already been done did.

[Brisketexan 105095]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

if? oh, it's already been done did.

I'm just hoping that they get to their planned destinations before the more advanced nation states start locking us out/making us quarantine for 14 days again.

[Gatorubet 30209]

Lambda Lambda Lambda in Houston.

Even the rape motif is apt.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33868]

 

[4th_and_18 687]

^ffs, see what I mean?

btw, I've noticed in every case people testing positive have taken Pfizer (not saying that it's only Pfizer, but both news stories and FB friend anecdotes point to this being a Pfizer problem). Does anyone have evidence on whether those with Moderna vax are experiencing similar infection rates? 

Maybe this is why Pfizer is insisting on a booster and everyone else (moderna/fda) is saying “let’s see what happens.”

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County had 163 cases today with 203 hospitalizations and 41 admits.

There are 74 people in ICU as well.

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

^ffs, see what I mean?

btw, I've noticed in every case people testing positive have taken Pfizer (not saying that it's only Pfizer, but both news stories and FB friend anecdotes point to this being a Pfizer problem). Does anyone have evidence on whether those with Moderna vax are experiencing similar infection rates? 

I've noticed the exact same thing. Assuming more in the US have had Pfizer, but it seems like that's what every person I hear with a breakthrough infection had. 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If local/regional pockets are 40/50% vaccinated, shouldn’t that ratio show in the peak of this spike?  And if so, can we handle it?

The problem is the Delta variant is so much more contagious than what we experienced last year, combined with a bunch of people who have gone into "fuck it, it's nothing/I don't care" mode.  Also, it's apparently quicker-acting when it hits the lungs, so it fucks you up fast.

The fact that it's now well over 80% of all US cases shows how contagious it is.

[Post Oak 20209]

I wish they had a vax eta on kids younger than 12

Edited July 21, 2021 by Post Oak

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

btw, I've noticed in every case people testing positive have taken Pfizer (not saying that it's only Pfizer, but both news stories and FB friend anecdotes point to this being a Pfizer problem). Does anyone have evidence on whether those with Moderna vax are experiencing similar infection rates? 

2 hours ago, 4th_and_18 said:

Maybe this is why Pfizer is insisting on a booster and everyone else (moderna/fda) is saying “let’s see what happens.”

11 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I've noticed the exact same thing. Assuming more in the US have had Pfizer, but it seems like that's what every person I hear with a breakthrough infection had. 

 

[Captainant 27653]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The problem is the Delta variant is so much more contagious than what we experienced last year, combined with a bunch of people who have gone into "fuck it, it's nothing/I don't care" mode.  Also, it's apparently quicker-acting when it hits the lungs, so it fucks you up fast.

The fact that it's now well over 80% of all US cases shows how contagious it is.

The fact that it's breaking through vaccinated people and causing them to be infectious is also driving much of the wave I think. Granted, it's a minor sickness if vaccinated, but since most places don't require vaccinated people to wear a mask... It's got more opportunities to spread. 

Covid, you bitch. 

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

Cases jumped by over 20% from yesterday to today in the US

[Anastasis 23469]

I don't see any obvious reason why PFE would be meaningfully different than MRNA. They both use the exact same spike protein sequence, and extremely similar delivery technology. Maybe some differences in proprietary lipid nano partical tech, but i would think that the impact should be minimal.  I think that the two should be viewed as functionally equivalent.  Maybe something in the dosing regimen? 21d 2nd dose vs. 28 day?  That might make some sense.  There is evidence that extended 2nd dose intervals generall produce better immune response (outside COVID setting). Maybe that could be it?  Meh, I don't think so. JNJ uses same spike, but different delivery mechanism, so can buy a difference there.  AZN uses different spike and different delivery than PFE and MRNA, but similar to JNJ (but still slightly different).

Long story short...fuck all the navel gazing, any shot better than no shot.  But I were to get a shot I'd want the mRNA based one and would not care if it was PFE or MRNA. 

[mchookem 16327]

SIAP

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1626905343&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

43 out of 9,000 deaths were vaccinated. gotdammit.

fuck you if you won't get vaccinated. seriously.

[scottsins 1966]

What is going on around Temple? They've had 2 days in the past week with over 300 new cases. Is that Ft Hood or citizens?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/bell-texas-covid-cases.html

I work in Bell County. The approach to science, math and basic logic is really a spectacle. The entire universe changes when you go 30 miles north on I35.

[Skipper 6133]

Considering this was pretty much inevitable with Delta, I tend to think it's a good thing that it is happening now so that it (i) hopefully drives vaccine hesitant people to get the vaccine (although it will be too late for many) and (ii) pushes us closer to herd immunity before the fall.   What sucks is that it's also spreading through plenty of vaccinated people so herd immunity probably not realistic but better to have this peak in the summer than the fall when kids are back in school, etc.    I told my wife yesterday to go ahead and prepare for another year of Pre-K with kids getting sent home for sniffles and a lockdown if someone tests positive.    Fucking anti-vax morons.   Zero sympathy for them making everyone else deal with this shit.

[kevwun 15774]

I know of someone in his 50's who didn't get vaccinated and caught it in the last couple of weeks.  He just got transferred to Austin from his local hospital with double pneumonia.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

27 minutes ago, Skipper said:

 I told my wife yesterday to go ahead and prepare for another year of Pre-K with kids getting sent home for sniffles and a lockdown if someone tests positive.    Fucking anti-vax morons.   Zero sympathy for them making everyone else deal with this shit.

Oh it gets better.  TEA/Texas Education Commissioner has told school districts that schools can't enforce quarantines.  So if a kid is exposed, possibly even has it, schools can't make them stay home.

School districts in the state are getting the lawyers involved, because they (rightfully) feel it's a public health issue, and because schools pre-covid had no problem forcing kids to stay home who presented a health risk.  

If they don't get a ruling before school starts, schools may have to have a special room set aside for kids who actively have covid or who were exposed.

Edited July 22, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[BonzoMontreaux 1038]

I have been told that Austin's Seton Main is the go to spot for treating ambulatory Covid patients in the area.  I know of two cases where this is to be true.  One lady, unvaccinated, has been in ICU for awhile.  

[crash_davis 23107]

16 hours ago, mchookem said:

SIAP

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_content=1626905343&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

43 out of 9,000 deaths were vaccinated. gotdammit.

fuck you if you won't get vaccinated. seriously.

I am mildly upset by the 43. The rest of em, I'm grinning. I guess they fucked around and found out. This trend will continue. Darwin is going to do his thing, regardless of whether or not people are afraid of 5G, microchips, whateverthefuck. Darwin don't give a fuck about your stupid reasons.

[Captainant 27653]

4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

I am mildly upset by the 43. The rest of em, I'm grinning. I guess they fucked around and found out. This trend will continue. Darwin is going to do his thing, regardless of whether or not people are afraid of 5G, microchips, whateverthefuck. Darwin don't give a fuck about your stupid reasons.

It's important to remember that a vaccine isn't some magical cheat code to beat COVID. It's a means to train your body's immune system to effectively fight off virus. But if your immune system is already at a low point, or if you've got other health complications, COVID could still get ya.

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

This is not helping either given the record levels of crossings. It does not feel like we have a comprehensive strategy.

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

Waiting too long to edit so apologies for the double post. Bret Weinstein makes some interesting arguments in favor or more focus on prophylactic care. It is a little wonky for non-academics but some interesting ideas.

Trigger Warning Below

Spoiler

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/87-we-must-drive-this-virus-to-extinction-bret-weinstein/id1471581521?i=1000528685411

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

32 minutes ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

It does not feel like we have a comprehensive strategy.

Our strategies, for better or for worse, all seem to originate and rotate around the local level these days.

Austin Public Health is trying to come up with a strategy to get more local folks vaccinated, and it may even involve financial incentives.

Fitlump of all people has been pushing vaccinations.

Speaking of vaccinations, I think it was mentioned earlier, but if not, the reason why more folks in the Austin area are having breakthrough infections with Pfizer, is that more people in the Austin area had Pfizer vaccines.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13510]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's important to remember that a vaccine isn't some magical cheat code to beat COVID. It's a means to train your body's immune system to effectively fight off virus. But if your immune system is already at a low point, or if you've got other health complications, COVID could still get ya.

That's a good point the vaccine isn't some shield around your body that prevents someone from coughing the virus onto you. I assume the immune system detects that the virus is in your system and multiplying. Then your immune system kicks it into gear to fight it. 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's important to remember that a vaccine isn't some magical cheat code to beat COVID. It's a means to train your body's immune system to effectively fight off virus. But if your immune system is already at a low point, or if you've got other health complications, COVID could still get ya.

I've been telling the anti-vaxxers in my family who keep pulling the "HAH PEOPLE WITH THE VACCINE ARE GETTING IT" shit, that we would still get the flu even with our flu vaccinations, but the difference was we could fight it off fairly fast.

Now I'm telling that that of the 9,000 or so dead of covid since February, less than 50 were vaccinated, so they can do their own research and get their calculator out and play with those numbers.

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Now I'm telling that that of the 9,000 or so dead of covid since February, less than 50 were vaccinated, so they can do their own research and get their calculator out and play with those numbers.

you do realize that the only words they will hear or heard were 50 people who were vaccinated have died.         

confirmation bias is a real fucking issue.    They will convienently ignore that 8950 people who werent vaxxed  died. 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

12 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

you do realize that the only words they will hear or heard were 50 people who were vaccinated have died.         

confirmation bias is a real fucking issue.    They will convienently ignore that 8950 people who werent vaxxed  died. 

I know.  I made the mistake of taking another philosophy class recently, and spent a chunk of the class on heuristics like confirmation bias, and now I see this shit everywhere.  I wish I could forget it.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Welp - pretty shitty day in Travis County with 302 cases. 1st day since 2/26 with >300 cases. Fucking A. 220 people hospitalized.

Here is break down by age. Bear in mind this is a multi-day breakout as I am on vacation but this is getting so shitty I feel compelled to pull it and my family are all in process of getting ready for dinner.

We have had a little over 1000 cases in the past week with them predominantly skewing younger (bodes well for deaths).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 7/22 vs 7/15	10	65	114	270	245	163	98	40	24	10	1039
% of Daily Change	0.96%	6.26%	10.97%	25.99%	23.58%	15.69%	9.43%	3.85%	2.31%	0.96%
% of Total Cases	0.63%	4.34%	10.58%	25.99%	20.70%	14.87%	11.17%	6.51%	3.16%	2.04%

[atomheartbevo 89648]

Oh good, we're lumped in with Florida and Missouri.  The three of us are accounting for 40% of new cases.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/22/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[atomheartbevo 89648]

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid19-hospitalizations-austin-icu-stage-4/269-4d11f1b7-52b6-4b48-a660-1130629c4bd0

Quote

'We never thought we would get back to this level this soon' | Doctor says Austin hospitalizations starting to look like exponential growth

The seven-day moving average for new hospital admissions continues to rise in Austin-Travis County, surpassing Stage 4 COVID-19 levels.

Quote

As the seven-day moving average for new hospital admissions continues to rise in Austin-Travis County, surpassing Stage 4 COVID-19 levels, an emergency room physician in Austin said it's starting to look like exponential growth.

Dr. Natasha Kathuria said the surge of hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Austin is surprising. She said an overwhelming number of patients are unvaccinated. Also, she said instead of elderly patients, the bulk are between 20 and 50 years old.

@BrazilHorn that jives with what you said about younger.