COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6636]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid19-hospitalizations-austin-icu-stage-4/269-4d11f1b7-52b6-4b48-a660-1130629c4bd0

@BrazilHorn that jives with what you said about younger.

Yep - This is a 100% fucking preventable surge from people that have either politicized vaccinations or believe they are too young to worry about it.

I really feel for health care professionals as they are just being ground up when it seemed like we had hit some serious light at the end of the tunnel.

Going to be really shitty if everything shuts down again due to selfishness.

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Well the older set have a very high level of vaccination, don’t they?

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Well the older set have a very high level of vaccination, don’t they?

Yes - this is showing it overall reduction in their share of cases and in reduction in deaths in the 60+ category,

[bschoolprof 6273]

This thread needs moar pics.  Exponential hospitalization growth a statewide phenomenon.  Beginning of our wave 3 looks a lot like beginning of waves 1 and 2.  Hopefully, with ~50% of adults vaccinated, the area under the curve will be smaller.  

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

Yes - this is showing it overall reduction in their share of cases and in reduction in deaths in the 60+ category,

Yeah my takeaway is that all age groups could be performing similarly if they had bothered to get to the same level of coverage. 

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Just now, bschoolprof said:

This thread needs moar pics.  Exponential hospitalization growth a statewide phenomenon.  Beginning of our wave 3 looks a lot like beginning of waves 1 and 2.  Hopefully, with ~50% of adults vaccinated, the area under the curve will be smaller.  

Between that and the apparent increased infectiousness of delta, should be a sharper, narrower peak. But will it be any lower at its peak than the others, or just shorter lived?

[Newdoc 3453]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Between that and the apparent increased infectiousness of delta, should be a sharper, narrower peak. But will it be any lower at its peak than the others, or just shorter lived?

Depends on how fast it burns through the unvaccinated. It will find them. I think I said earlier that the delta variant has pushed severity down into the lower age groups. We just don't know how aggressive it will be causing serious disease in the younger population. Although in our southern states with lower vaccination rates,  there are plenty of obese, diabetic people in the 30-50+ age range.

[UT_OB1 2225]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yes - this is showing it overall reduction in their share of cases and in reduction in deaths in the 60+ category,

 

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yeah my takeaway is that all age groups could be performing similarly if they had bothered to get to the same level of coverage. 

Per the Mayo Clinics website, the 40-49 year old group is at 65% for the whole nation, and even Texas has 60% of its 18-64 group vaccinated (90% for 65+). We are not all that far off from the numbers everyone kept telling us we needed to hit. We (nation, everyone) lag quite a bit in the under 18 group because half of them can’t get it, and the other half just got approved within the last couple months. 
 

we need to get the authorization for the younger ages. 

[Stringer 1439]

Someone on my team had a breakthrough case he found out about yesterday.  He got it from his cousin who was in town from Amsterdam.  Apparently, he wasn't vaxxed and they were out all last weekend.  

I'm out at my in-laws house in Steiner since they are at their place in CO.  So, because this prick from Amsterdam wanted to party in Austin, I have to rearrange my life, leaving my two young kids and wife who works past midnight every night.  It's not awful having a quiet house to myself, but definitely feel helpless right now.

Getting a test tomorrow, so fingers crossed.  From what I understand, vaxxed breakthrough transmission to other vaxxed people is extremely rare.  We'll see.  I hope I can go home tomorrow.

[washparkhorn 9939]

5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

This thread needs moar pics.  Exponential hospitalization growth a statewide phenomenon.  Beginning of our wave 3 looks a lot like beginning of waves 1 and 2.  Hopefully, with ~50% of adults vaccinated, the area under the curve will be smaller.  

I didn't know Texas had only two waves. That's not good. Looks like a deadly head and shoulders pattern forming. 

So much unnecessary death, pain, and permanent damage. 

 

[Anastasis 23489]

11 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

This thread needs moar pics.  Exponential hospitalization growth a statewide phenomenon.  Beginning of our wave 3 looks a lot like beginning of waves 1 and 2.  Hopefully, with ~50% of adults vaccinated, the area under the curve will be smaller.  

Hopefully we start to see some decoupling of the hospitalization numbers from case counts. 

[Muy Frio 182]

On 7/21/2021 at 8:26 PM, Anastasis said:

I don't see any obvious reason why PFE would be meaningfully different than MRNA. They both use the exact same spike protein sequence, and extremely similar delivery technology. Maybe some differences in proprietary lipid nano partical tech, but i would think that the impact should be minimal.  I think that the two should be viewed as functionally equivalent.  Maybe something in the dosing regimen? 21d 2nd dose vs. 28 day?  That might make some sense.  There is evidence that extended 2nd dose intervals generall produce better immune response (outside COVID setting). Maybe that could be it?  Meh, I don't think so. JNJ uses same spike, but different delivery mechanism, so can buy a difference there.  AZN uses different spike and different delivery than PFE and MRNA, but similar to JNJ (but still slightly different).

Long story short...fuck all the navel gazing, any shot better than no shot.  But I were to get a shot I'd want the mRNA based one and would not care if it was PFE or MRNA. 

 

[Snake Diggity 4627]

What’s everyone’s guess for TC hospitalization peak for this wave?  If vaccinated people are highly unlikely to be hospitalized then we should see a much lower peak from the previous waves despite Delta’s increased rate of transmission.  I’m going with 350 (peak of 1st wave was ~500, 2nd wave ~600).

[crash_davis 23115]

Austin moves to Stage 4.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/stage-4-austin-covid19/269-1761d1a2-8ff9-4f0e-b7da-4054741e5d45

Under Stage 4, APH recommends everyone wear a mask, even if they’re fully vaccinated. Fully vaccinated people should wear a mask when participating in indoor private gatherings, traveling and dining or shopping and should wear a mask for outdoor gatherings if they are unable to socially distance. Partially or unvaccinated individuals should avoid private gatherings, travel, dining and shopping unless essential and should wear a mask when conducting essential activities.

The Stage 4 guidelines are recommendations, not a mandate. Under Gov. Greg Abbott's most recent executive order, masks are not required in the state of Texas, though businesses and other establishments may require employees or customers to wear masks. 

 

 

[Muy Frio 182]

 

[atomheartbevo 89844]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

The Stage 4 guidelines are recommendations, not a mandate. Under Gov. Greg Abbott's most recent executive order, masks are not required in the state of Texas, though businesses and other establishments may require employees or customers to wear masks. 

And schools cannot take temperatures, and have to allow exposed/positive kids to attend in-person because they are not allowed to force kids to quarantine (and schools are going to have to setup areas for those kids who attend in-person and are exposed or test positive).

They are waiting on legal opinions as to whether the schools can quarantine positive/exposed kids.  With other illnesses, school districts were allowed to force kids to stay home until they had a note from the doctor, etc. and nobody can figure out why covid is different.

Hopefully some things can change and we don't see it spread in the schools.

Edited July 23, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[Catpfish 618]

The Travis County text messages have started up again

[Armybrat 40932]

3 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

 

Four of those employees of the assisted living & memory care facility are not vaccinated? WTF is wrong with that place, and those numbnut employees?

[Texas Jeff 1945]

This just in, from 1918.  Starting to look familiar?

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Sitting in United Club Denver relishing Aggy tears at the thought of Texas joining the SEC.

299 cases today in Travis County with 220 people hospitalized (this stayed flat day over day). 37 admits.

Cases still skewing younger. Get vaccinated mofos

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 7/23 vs 7/22	1	27	27	83	71	51	14	15	6	4	299
% of Daily Change	0.33%	9.03%	9.03%	27.76%	23.75%	17.06%	4.68%	5.02%	2.01%	1.34%
% of Total Cases	0.63%	4.35%	10.58%	26.00%	20.71%	14.87%	11.15%	6.50%	3.16%	2.04%

[Muy Frio 182]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Four of those employees of the assisted living & memory care facility are not vaccinated? WTF is wrong with that place, and those numbnut employees?

I wondered that as well, but healthcare is like seemingly every other industry in that there’s a massive shortage of labor. Probably couldn’t afford to cut loose those 4 workers or have the threat of them walking. Just a guess. 

[atomheartbevo 89844]

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/im-really-concerned-mayor-adler-reacts-to-icu-numbers-for-austin-area/269-7779ec02-1710-4d9a-baf7-f1215e3efae0

Quote

The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported there are 244 COVID-19 patients in Austin-area hospitals. That number increased 52.5% from a week ago. 

Austin-area ICU's are seeing even more of an increase, according to DSHS. It reported 31 ICU beds are available in the Austin area, which is the fewest since New Year's Eve. It's the third-lowest point since the start of the pandemic. 

[smoky 840]

What's Austin's vaccination percentage for those over 18?

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Is it wrong to think that austin shouldn’t be taking rural fucknut cases so that the hospitals have availability for local icu needs of all flavors. 

[Muy Frio 182]

11 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is it wrong to think that austin shouldn’t be taking rural fucknut cases so that the hospitals have availability for local icu needs of all flavors. 

Yes

[troph 24914]

11 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is it wrong to think that austin shouldn’t be taking rural fucknut cases so that the hospitals have availability for local icu needs of all flavors. 

We can think that but as I recall - and though my memory may be hazy bad not hazy good like a hazy IPA - the hospital district by law has a multi county obligation. That doesn’t solve for all local hospitals though. 

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Just now, troph said:

We can think that but as I recall - and though my memory may be hazy bad not hazy good like a hazy IPA - the hospital district by law has a multi county obligation. That doesn’t solve for all local hospitals though. 

I just think it’s bullshit if/when a city hospital system is set up for say 200 icu beds to meet the typical icu needs of the city/district, then a bunch of rural morons flood their rural hospitals with preventable icu cases that spill over and take over 100 of the city beds, sharply decreasing the city’s ability to care for its local citizenry. 

[troph 24914]

We are masking back up, everyone is vaccinated, except my 11 year old. Counting down to December and his 12th. Vax is his primary bday present.  We are mostly outdoors rec family so that’s fine mostly but damn this delta bullshit. Ain’t no one got time for it. Pfizer booster needed ASAP. 
 

also GF got the JJ and is thinking about getting Pfizer on top of it. 

[troph 24914]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

I just think it’s bullshit if/when a city hospital system is set up for say 200 icu beds to meet the typical icu needs of the city/district, then a bunch of rural morons flood their rural hospitals with preventable icu cases that spill over and take over 100 of the city beds, sharply decreasing the city’s ability to care for its local citizenry. 

Agreed. Seton downtown though has acute care obligations for like 9 counties. The politics on the creation of the district will piss you off more, Travis county tax payers pay and 9 counties or so get the benefit. There are financial provisions but basically that’s the jist as I recall. 

[Pato del Muerto 52623]

Wonder if it works the other way. Can I get JJ on top of Pfizer and get better coverage?

[Muy Frio 182]

13 minutes ago, troph said:

We can think that but as I recall - and though my memory may be hazy bad not hazy good like a hazy IPA - the hospital district by law has a multi county obligation. That doesn’t solve for all local hospitals though. 

It may be contractual. In other metro areas the hospital systems contract out with small towns to have their patients sent in.

[Snake Diggity 4627]

18 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

 

HOW THE FUCK ARE THERE ANY UNVACCINATED PEOPLE IN A FUCKING ASSISTED LIVING FACILITY

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

My friend has her mom in one in a small town that is hard to staff. Lots of unvaxed idiot employees. She looked at moving her to a better place but it more than her entire paycheck. It’s insanity.

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

My dad just got moved from his rehab hospital to skilled assistant ljving (he’s going to rehab there for another 100 days and then come home come what may) and he has to be quarantined for 14 days. We can still visit him but he can’t go out in general pop and all the rehab has to be done in his room the next 14 days. 
thankfully we can still visit. He is vaxed so I’m not super worried about that. 

[Armybrat 40932]

54 minutes ago, troph said:

Agreed. Seton downtown though has acute care obligations for like 9 counties. The politics on the creation of the district will piss you off more, Travis county tax payers pay and 9 counties or so get the benefit. There are financial provisions but basically that’s the jist as I recall. 

IIRC, the other counties within the hospital district pay hospital taxes which are used to defray costs for the patients from those counties.

And supposedly by law, no hospital can turn away a person in need for anything.

[Muy Frio 182]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

HOW THE FUCK ARE THERE ANY UNVACCINATED PEOPLE IN A FUCKING ASSISTED LIVING FACILITY

My guess above was complacency and fear of staffing issue arising from people quitting. 

[troph 24914]

43 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

IIRC, the other counties within the hospital district pay hospital taxes which are used to defray costs for the patients from those counties.

And supposedly by law, no hospital can turn away a person in need for anything.

I think they are obligated to pay but it’s not as beneficial as being part of the tax base. I think the indigent care issue is acute only but covid probs qualifies.

Edited July 24, 2021 by troph

[BrazilHorn 6636]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

HOW THE FUCK ARE THERE ANY UNVACCINATED PEOPLE IN A FUCKING ASSISTED LIVING FACILITY

Given that like 70% or so of all cv19 deaths have occurred in a nursing home/assisted living facility having anyone there who isn’t vaccinated is reckless endangerment. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19228]

1 hour ago, troph said:

We are masking back up, everyone is vaccinated, except my 11 year old. Counting down to December and his 12th.

I'm in the exact same boat except change 'his' to 'her'.  They asked for my company insurance card when I got the oldest vaxxed so I assume that was to verify age.  If they didn't then I would have had my daughter vaxxed by now.

[scottsins 1976]

My guess above was complacency and fear of staffing issue arising from people quitting. 

Y’all are over-analyzing this whole issue.
These CNA’s are people with online/bullshit certificates. They get paid less than employees starting at Dairy Queen…to change adult diapers, etc.

Broad brush and all, but it’s not hard to fathom these people being clueless AF.

Fun fact: when I used to have to handle hiring for my office, I automatically tossed every resume with “CNA” on it, straight into the trash.

[troph 24914]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm in the exact same boat except change 'his' to 'her'.  They asked for my company insurance card when I got the oldest vaxxed so I assume that was to verify age.  If they didn't then I would have had my daughter vaxxed by now.

I’ve thought about doing the same thing. 

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Some encouraging news is that while cases are spiking deaths are still very low. Only 3 deaths last week (week ending July 23rd)

80+ (1)

60 to 69 (1)

50 to 59 (1)

Get the fuck vaccinated. It may save your life. (if you have BMI >40 lose some weight also)

[Nicole44 22079]

Found out that a friend of mine and their family (from Texas) all had the vaccination . They went to Alabama this past week. All came down with Covid and the father died Friday. They were driving back to Texas and he was having a ton of trouble breathing and they took him to a hospital. All tested positive. His signs never improved from when he was admitted. Sad stuff. It pisses me off because once again people getting their vaccinations are suffering because others refuse to (for their reasons.) damn that’s sad. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Nicole44

[Texas Jeff 1945]

On 7/23/2021 at 8:29 PM, smoky said:

What's Austin's vaccination percentage for those over 18?

Don't have over 18 numbers, but I do have over 12 numbers (everyone eligible)

First shot: 70.5%
Fully vaccinated: 61.3%

Some first shot folks did not show up for the second one, that fully vaxxed number should be 67% by now.

About 330k folks in Travis Co are eligible but still have yet to get even one shot, using 2021 population estimates.

[atomheartbevo 89844]

9 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

About 330k folks in Travis Co are eligible but still have yet to get even one shot, using 2021 population estimates.

I'm surprised it's that low.

[GTX Horn 1710]

Is there a correlation between people who have severe breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalization or death and not having any of the severe symptoms associated with the 2nd Pfizer or Moderna shot? It seems that a lot of the anecdotal evidence I’ve heard of breakthrough cases seems to be spread pretty evenly among the different shots, but I wonder if not having the reaction to to 2nd shots means one is more susceptible to severe breakthrough infections.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

4 hours ago, GTX Horn said:

Is there a correlation between people who have severe breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalization or death and not having any of the severe symptoms associated with the 2nd Pfizer or Moderna shot? It seems that a lot of the anecdotal evidence I’ve heard of breakthrough cases seems to be spread pretty evenly among the different shots, but I wonder if not having the reaction to to 2nd shots means one is more susceptible to severe breakthrough infections.

Great question. When I had my first shots, I voluntarily signed up for the cdc vaccine tracking system. They prompted me to answer questions, for several weeks, regarding reactions. Assuming other people also answered those types of questions, the cdc has info on that side of the equation. Whether they could easily match that up with patients records who knows.  

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Here are cases inclusive of weekend. 446 cases in Travis County "today".  There are 265 people hospitalized & there were 39 admits today. There were 41 Sunday & 36 Saturday.

Cases still skewing younger which is a good thing in terms of mortality.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 7/26 vs 7/23	4	28	60	125	107	59	34	18	9	2	446
% of Daily Change	0.90%	6.28%	13.45%	28.03%	23.99%	13.23%	7.62%	4.04%	2.02%	0.45%
% of Total Cases	0.63%	4.36%	10.59%	26.01%	20.73%	14.87%	11.13%	6.49%	3.15%	2.03%

[atomheartbevo 89844]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Cases still skewing younger which is a good thing in terms of mortality.

I know a huge chunk of this is that younger folks make up a large chunk of the unvaccinated population, but I'm also curious if it's because, putting aside vaccination status, they are willing to be a little more risky in their behavior (getting together in maskless groups, etc.).  

It seems like a lot of the older folks I know are still being careful, still not mingling in large crowds, still wearing masks, have cut down on errands/etc..

Again, I understand that it's a huge function of being unvaccinated here in July of 2021, but I just know quite a few olds that have changed up their daily habits.

[Biff Tannen 45750]

23 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

About 330k folks in Travis Co are eligible but still have yet to get even one shot, using 2021 population estimates.

I am in Travis, but drove out of county (grimes) to get my j&j shot in March. Wonder how many people have similar issues that are skewing the stats.