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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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On 9/7/2021 at 9:02 AM, Brisketexan said:


Dude….it’s around 35% of our economy. Without petroleum, we’re shit. Texas before the discovery of oil was a poor agricultural (lotta cotton), state. Just like Mississippi.

So with  "35% of our economy" as Petroleum based here is some basic data.  Including petroleum Texas has 2nd largest GDP behind California at about $1.8 Trillion which would be the 9th largest country in the world.  65% of that would be $1.17 Trillion.  $1.17 Trillion would rank us as the 4th highest state and 15th highest country, just behind Florida and Spain respectively.  Louisiana is 25th at over $250 Billion. Mississippi is 37th at $117 Billion.

This of course does not alter Louisiana's (26% Petroleum based), Mississippi (6% Petroleum based) or other state/country economies by removing any Petroleum/Oil  revenue.

Edited by ABSR
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6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


And fuck Mr. Kim...I've lost all respect for that guy. He's throw up his hands and says this all we're allowed to do because some fucking guy in a wheelchair said so.

My wife works one day a week in Johnson city ISD. Shares an office with some bitch that just has allergies. Yep. Tested positive today. My wife is in the Pfizer study and got her booster about a month ago. We'll see how this goes.

Andrew Kim has been worthless throughout the pandemic. Last year the Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff ordered all schools in Bexar County to delay the start of the school year until a plan for returning was put in place. Kim tried to override it but ended up having to let the CISD schools in Bexar County have a delayed start. Nelson Wolff does not fuck around and has been very proactive throughout the pandemic.

Kim has done his best not to upset the leadership in Austin. Which seems weird for a Superintendent but Kim has sat on a number of state boards and commissions that either Abbott or Patrick has appointed him to serve on. He is political animal furthering his career so he will never give any push back on Abbott.

 

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4 minutes ago, F250 said:

Andrew Kim has been worthless throughout the pandemic. Last year the Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff ordered all schools in Bexar County to delay the start of the school year until a plan for returning was put in place. Kim tried to override it but ended up having to let the CISD schools in Bexar County have a delayed start. Nelson Wolff does not fuck around and has been very proactive throughout the pandemic.

Kim has done his best not to upset the leadership in Austin. Which seems weird for a Superintendent but Kim has sat on a number of state boards and commissions that either Abbott or Patrick has appointed him to serve on. He is political animal furthering his career so he will never give any push back on Abbott.

 

I think it probably has more to do with the school board that employs him being very red. I will actually give him credit for pushing ahead with school last year. Our kids were in person the entire time and had a very positive experience. This year is presenting more challenges to be sure though. 

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15 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

I think it probably has more to do with the school board that employs him being very red. I will actually give him credit for pushing ahead with school last year. Our kids were in person the entire time and had a very positive experience. This year is presenting more challenges to be sure though. 

Oh yeah the bright red district definitely has something to do with it.

 

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Andrew Kim has been worthless throughout the pandemic. Last year the Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff ordered all schools in Bexar County to delay the start of the school year until a plan for returning was put in place. Kim tried to override it but ended up having to let the CISD schools in Bexar County have a delayed start. Nelson Wolff does not fuck around and has been very proactive throughout the pandemic.
Kim has done his best not to upset the leadership in Austin. Which seems weird for a Superintendent but Kim has sat on a number of state boards and commissions that either Abbott or Patrick has appointed him to serve on. He is political animal furthering his career so he will never give any push back on Abbott.
 
Dr. Maika of NEISD has taken a similar approach in that he leans on the current legal landscape. He says that the district's legal counsel has advised him to follow the state government rather than the local government, but then, unless I misheard, the lawyer that presented at a school board meeting stated that the San Antonio suit would eventually reach the US Supreme Court. I didn't see a federal question in the suit and the suit relied on Texas law and the Texas Constitution only, so I don't see how it would reach the Supreme Court after the Texas Supreme Court rules on it.
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647 cases today in Travis County. Still skewing younger as always.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/8 vs 9/7 6 82 105 134 120 94 52 31 15 8 647
% of Daily Change 0.93% 12.67% 16.23% 20.71% 18.55% 14.53% 8.04% 4.79% 2.32% 1.24%  
% of Total Cases 0.73% 5.17% 11.07% 25.55% 20.83% 14.71% 10.76% 6.33% 3.00% 1.87%  
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In late July, many were pointing to the UK as how the delta wave will suddenly go away after it hits a certain point. Now we're 45 days later, and the UK is once again approaching their daily new case peak. They're still 20% lower than their July peak but cases are going in the wrong direction. 

Point being that any community shouldn't let its guard down just because cases are dropping. But when I go out in Houston, I basically see fewer masks than I saw early in the summer.

 

Capture - Copy (5).JPG

The UK's hospitalizations are not even close to following cases so it really doesn't matter that much. They are still way below the winter peak. This is the way it should have been here. 

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2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

647 cases today in Travis County. Still skewing younger as always.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/8 vs 9/7 6 82 105 134 120 94 52 31 15 8 647
% of Daily Change 0.93% 12.67% 16.23% 20.71% 18.55% 14.53% 8.04% 4.79% 2.32% 1.24%  
% of Total Cases 0.73% 5.17% 11.07% 25.55% 20.83% 14.71% 10.76% 6.33% 3.00% 1.87%  

 

Cases appear to be plateauing, hospitalizations starting to trend down.

Screenshot-2021-09-08-141959.jpg

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12 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

The UK's hospitalizations are not even close to following cases so it really doesn't matter that much. They are still way below the winter peak. This is the way it should have been here. 

Not close to last winter but hospitalization is still 8x higher than was in the spring so I don't agree that it doesn't matter much.  And the death rate is 10x over the spring so not nothing.

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5 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I'm hopeful that as back to school is further along etc that things will start to drop down.

Do you have ability to plot total number of cases over timg by age group; and total number of hospitalized cases over time by age group with your data?  Or if there is a better way to look at the time trends by age in your opinion. 

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18 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

647 cases today in Travis County. Still skewing younger as always.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/8 vs 9/7 6 82 105 134 120 94 52 31 15 8 647
% of Daily Change 0.93% 12.67% 16.23% 20.71% 18.55% 14.53% 8.04% 4.79% 2.32% 1.24%  
% of Total Cases 0.73% 5.17% 11.07% 25.55% 20.83% 14.71% 10.76% 6.33% 3.00% 1.87%  

Dammit. I was really hoping we would start to see a downward trend.  At least positivity rate has fallen from early last week, but i was hoping we would be in the high 9s and we're still at 10.1%

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Do you have ability to plot total number of cases over timg by age group; and total number of hospitalized cases over time by age group with your data?  Or if there is a better way to look at the time trends by age in your opinion. 

I can show total # of cases no issue, I don't have hospitalization by age group as the Travis County site doesn't show that very well at all. I can look at cases and the table I show shows the share of the daily cases vs the share of overall cases. I have the data by day going back to last year that can show ebb and flow by age

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not close to last winter but hospitalization is still 8x higher than was in the spring so I don't agree that it doesn't matter much.  And the death rate is 10x over the spring so not nothing.

My point is that approaching record cases doesn't matter as much as hospitalizations at this point. Their healthcare system isn't being overran. We are roughly 3x the number of hospitalized per million. 

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10 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

My point is that approaching record cases doesn't matter as much as hospitalizations at this point. Their healthcare system isn't being overran. We are roughly 3x the number of hospitalized per million. 

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/healthcare/2021/09/06/covid-central-texas-hospital-capacity-no-icu-beds/5746524001/

???

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20 hours ago, F250 said:

Just got Covid 19 notifications from my kid's schools. The numbers are higher than any school day last year and I expect them to keep going up like the National Debt Clock. It's fucking insane that the school district is just cruising along as if this is no big deal.

 

 

A couple of weeks back we went to my daughter's open house/meet the teacher/whatever-the-fuck. Four grades (5-8), plus all their parents crammed into one cafeteria that was standing room only. <10% mask wearing in the parents, not a single school administrator and very few teachers had masks. Crowded, hot, AC obviously not up to the task.

I noped right the fuck out of there. (I would have noped right the fuck out of there even if we weren't in a pandemic). I don't see my public school doing jack shit, not even making a token effort.

Fucking enraging.

 

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

image.thumb.png.871d45ca15f5806ff9f7a40f9d06bc6e.png

That big blip down in March was an error on TCAD site. I should have excluded in chart, but just did this down/dirty

 

Sorry, is this total cases from 7/24/2020 to 9/7/2021? So as of yesterday, 11,836 total kids aged 10-19 have contracted covid? The colors represent the age brackets?

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

UK population must be healthier overall than the USA. I just can’t think of another explanation for the difference in hospitalization rates. Maybe we admit for lesser cases. Derp. 

They have a significantly higher vaccination rate.

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3 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Sorry, is this total cases from 7/24/2020 to 9/7/2021? So as of yesterday, 11,836 total kids aged 10-19 have contracted covid? The colors represent the age brackets?

Yes. I started tracking age groups July of last year. It’s through today. 
Roughly 107k cases overall across all age groups 

 

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This thread is depressing. This and the vax thread are my primary news sources for local covid issues (Texas and Travis county) and every time I come here I hope for good news - nope. Yeah it *might* be trending down soon but the school news overshadows any overall good news.

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Looks like 5-11 EUA is coming in November with deployment in arms beginning in December.  full disclosure-intel is not from the CDC but rather from heads of some very large hospital groups around Texas and Minnesota.  

Like Troph, I'm seeing overall cases finally leveling off, but it's cold comfort to us with smaller kids where cases are blazing at the elementary school level.  I'm glad for the overall health care system and our over-taxed workers, but every class our elementary has 4 or 5 empty chairs every single day. It's starting to fuck with the kids psychologically.  

Case load may be finally trending downward, but we're just outta fucking ICU beds.  And we're outta staff.  There is not the deep bench of workers and makeshift hospitals we had a year ago.  90% of people in hospital are unvaccinated.  95% of ICU and ventilators are unvaccinated. Those are just apolitical facts.  We need to have space for people who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons and children.  THat's it, nobody else.  The system doesn't have more capacity than that.  I get that science isn't cool right now, but how about basic arithmetic?  

Remember how we used to worry (and I still do) about people we'd lose to suicide because of Covid?  Now think about how many more are dying needlessly because they can't get a hospital bed for their non-Covid illness/accident/injury because their local hospital is overrun with unvaccinated patients who somehow get to skip the triage line in the name of freedom.  

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8 minutes ago, troph said:

This thread is depressing. This and the vax thread are my primary news sources for local covid issues (Texas and Travis county) and every time I come here I hope for good news - nope. Yeah it *might* be trending down soon but the school news overshadows any overall good news.

Yeah. I check the NYT Texas COVID page each morning. The post-Labor Day #s are coming in, and look bad in several counties. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/texas-covid-cases.html

It worries me that I see rising #s in counties that surround the larger cities. The question is whether the smaller pop counties will impact the cities tomorrow, or vice versa. An example is Montgomery county (The Woodlands) which is effectively an extension of Houston, and Montgomery is at their all-time high for new case averages.

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40 minutes ago, troph said:

This thread is depressing. This and the vax thread are my primary news sources for local covid issues (Texas and Travis county) and every time I come here I hope for good news - nope. Yeah it *might* be trending down soon but the school news overshadows any overall good news.

This thread will always be depressing if you expect that our society won't have to substantially deal with COVID in our lives for the next several years.  There will continue to be variants and mutations, our global population is way too large and mobile, and we're way too diverse in terms of our willingness to use mitigation efforts (i.e., vaccines, masks, etc.).  This herd immunity bullshit is a pipe dream. 

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On 9/7/2021 at 8:58 AM, Lobo said:

We've got a great diversity of industry.  I'm proud of that.  My only point was all the money, all the resources, all the talent...hasn't made us a lick smarter.  

Our greatness is a myth we perpetuate to help wash away the bitter taste of our magnitudinal stupidity.  

Two more pre-schools in Austin announced full closure this morning.  But remembestaffinr, kids can't get Covid.  

However, we remain optimistic.  For today, a whopping 2 ICU beds have become available in all of Central Texas.  Guess why?  

staffing shortages, that is why. 

Everyone will get the coronavirus that causes COVID.  Everyone.  

Now, it is encouraging that there is obviously natural immunity.

Travis County has 1,274,000 residents.  Only 1000 have succumbed to the disease.  

It's not the people who refuse to get that shots that are the problem.  Its the fat people that are the pandemic.

 

Edited by VelvetFreeze
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3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well then you're really not gonna like how many fat un-vaccinated people are in our hospital systems right now.  

The skinny ones are in there too.  A client of mine who's a family physician told me yesterday that he has two unvaccinated family friends who were hospitalized, both in their 40s, and not obese or with any underlying health conditions.  One is currently intubated, the other is dead.  He's in San Antonio and said that yesterday the city was out of ICU beds, and something like 96-98% of hospitalized COVID patients are unvaccinated.

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7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

The skinny ones are in there too.  A client of mine who's a family physician told me yesterday that he has two unvaccinated family friends who were hospitalized, both in their 40s, and not obese or with any underlying health conditions.  One is currently intubated, the other is dead.  He's in San Antonio and said that yesterday the city was out of ICU beds, and something like 96-98% of hospitalized COVID patients are unvaccinated.

always an outlier or two.

I see fat people, everywhere.  Nothing should have closed down last year, Except, any restaurant that is on a frontage road.

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33 minutes ago, South Austin said:

The skinny ones are in there too.  A client of mine who's a family physician told me yesterday that he has two unvaccinated family friends who were hospitalized, both in their 40s, and not obese or with any underlying health conditions.  One is currently intubated, the other is dead.  He's in San Antonio and said that yesterday the city was out of ICU beds, and something like 96-98% of hospitalized COVID patients are unvaccinated.

I’m not sure how the numbers are determined but we actually have fewer ICU patients in SA this week than last week. 

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56 minutes ago, VelvetFreeze said:

staffing shortages, that is why. 

Everyone will get the coronavirus that causes COVID.  Everyone.  

Now, it is encouraging that there is obviously natural immunity.

Travis County has 1,274,000 residents.  Only 1000 have succumbed to the disease.  

It's not the people who refuse to get that shots that are the problem.  Its the fat people that are the pandemic.

 

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

Every cunt in the hospital for covid is unvaccinated. They are the fucking problem and I hope they die off soon so I can get my elective penis enlargement surgery.

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image.png.71cb416bc08964bc7fac003a0c866aac.png

image.thumb.png.2f6165c47fbb2825cb6f78acfaac4c75.png

Least Vaccinated States Lead Spike in Children’s Cases, Leaving Some Hospitals Stretched

Just as millions of families around the United States navigate sending their children back to school at an uncertain moment in the pandemic, the number of children admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 has risen to the highest levels reported to date. Nearly 30,000 of them entered hospitals in August.

Pediatric hospitalizations, driven by a record rise in coronavirus infections among children, have swelled across the country, overwhelming children’s hospitals and intensive care units in states like Louisiana and Texas.

Children remain markedly less likely than adults, especially older adults, to be hospitalized or die from Covid-19. But the growing number of children entering the hospital, however small compared with adults, should not be an afterthought, experts say, and should instead encourage communities to take on more efforts to protect their youngest residents.

“It should concern us all that hospitalizations — indicators of severe illness — are rising in the pediatric population, when there are a lot of steps we could take to prevent many of these hospitalizations,” said Jason L. Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, who tracks Covid-19 hospitalization data.

Public health officials and experts also caution that even small increases in the number of pediatric Covid-19 patients can put a major strain on pediatric hospitals and I.C.U.s, many of which are already overstretched with nursing shortages and an unusual summer surge of respiratory syncytial virus or R.S.V.

“The average pediatric I.C.U. in the U.S. has 12 beds,” said Dr. Christopher Carroll, a pediatric intensivist at Connecticut Children’s Medical Center. “In a system that small, even a few patients can quickly overrun the capacity. And there are fewer specialty trained pediatric clinicians to pick up the slack.”

The strain on hospital resources for children has prompted doctors and hospital executives to plead with adults to get vaccinated and return to mask wearing and social distancing to protect children, especially those under 12, who cannot yet be vaccinated.

“What really protects children are the interventions directed at the rest of society,” said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor in the health policy department at Harvard University.

State-level vaccination coverage appears to be making a difference. States with the highest vaccination rates in the country have seen relatively flat pediatric hospital admissions for Covid-19 so far, while states with the lowest vaccine coverage have child hospital admissions that are around four times as high.

During the summer surge, the hospitalization rate was about 10 times as high in unvaccinated adolescents as in those who were vaccinated, according to a recent federal study. But data on hospitalizations among children of different ages is limited. A federal survey offers a breakdown for infants, children and adolescents, but it is based on 14 states, many of which have not experienced the worst of the Delta-led wave.

Scientists have said that there is not yet enough evidence to determine whether the Delta variant causes more severe disease in children than other variants.

There is no doubt, on the other hand, that pediatric hospitalizations have been pushed to new highs because Delta’s greater transmissibility has led to record levels of adult and pediatric cases of coronavirus across the country.

More child coronavirus cases — greater than 250,000 — were recorded in the past week than at any previous point in the pandemic, according to the most recent American Academy of Pediatrics survey of state data. More than five million children have tested positive for coronavirus since the pandemic’s start.

Public health experts caution that the magnitude of childhood infections matters even if most cases are mild, because scientists are still working to understand the long-term impacts of the disease, including “long Covid,” the presence of lingering neurological, physical or psychiatric symptoms after Covid infection.

“These are children whose development and futures may be compromised,” said Dr. James Versalovic, the interim pediatrician in chief at Texas Children’s Hospital. “The collective impact when we look ahead is significant.”

He added: “Children are our future adults.”

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3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

Every cunt in the hospital for covid is unvaccinated. They are the fucking problem and I hope they die off soon so I can get my elective penis enlargement surgery.

everyone will get the coronavirus.  Now with natural immunity, most will not get the disease, COVID 19, caused by the coronavirus.

Just like when one of the 367 other known coronavirus' go through a classroom or an office.  The majority are not affected.  A large majority.  

Get out in the Sun.  Eat healthy and you'll be fine.

Fat peoole suck.

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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

image.png.71cb416bc08964bc7fac003a0c866aac.png

image.thumb.png.2f6165c47fbb2825cb6f78acfaac4c75.png

Least Vaccinated States Lead Spike in Children’s Cases, Leaving Some Hospitals Stretched

Just as millions of families around the United States navigate sending their children back to school at an uncertain moment in the pandemic, the number of children admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 has risen to the highest levels reported to date. Nearly 30,000 of them entered hospitals in August.

Pediatric hospitalizations, driven by a record rise in coronavirus infections among children, have swelled across the country, overwhelming children’s hospitals and intensive care units in states like Louisiana and Texas.

Children remain markedly less likely than adults, especially older adults, to be hospitalized or die from Covid-19. But the growing number of children entering the hospital, however small compared with adults, should not be an afterthought, experts say, and should instead encourage communities to take on more efforts to protect their youngest residents.

“It should concern us all that hospitalizations — indicators of severe illness — are rising in the pediatric population, when there are a lot of steps we could take to prevent many of these hospitalizations,” said Jason L. Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, who tracks Covid-19 hospitalization data.

Public health officials and experts also caution that even small increases in the number of pediatric Covid-19 patients can put a major strain on pediatric hospitals and I.C.U.s, many of which are already overstretched with nursing shortages and an unusual summer surge of respiratory syncytial virus or R.S.V.

“The average pediatric I.C.U. in the U.S. has 12 beds,” said Dr. Christopher Carroll, a pediatric intensivist at Connecticut Children’s Medical Center. “In a system that small, even a few patients can quickly overrun the capacity. And there are fewer specialty trained pediatric clinicians to pick up the slack.”

The strain on hospital resources for children has prompted doctors and hospital executives to plead with adults to get vaccinated and return to mask wearing and social distancing to protect children, especially those under 12, who cannot yet be vaccinated.

“What really protects children are the interventions directed at the rest of society,” said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor in the health policy department at Harvard University.

State-level vaccination coverage appears to be making a difference. States with the highest vaccination rates in the country have seen relatively flat pediatric hospital admissions for Covid-19 so far, while states with the lowest vaccine coverage have child hospital admissions that are around four times as high.

During the summer surge, the hospitalization rate was about 10 times as high in unvaccinated adolescents as in those who were vaccinated, according to a recent federal study. But data on hospitalizations among children of different ages is limited. A federal survey offers a breakdown for infants, children and adolescents, but it is based on 14 states, many of which have not experienced the worst of the Delta-led wave.

Scientists have said that there is not yet enough evidence to determine whether the Delta variant causes more severe disease in children than other variants.

There is no doubt, on the other hand, that pediatric hospitalizations have been pushed to new highs because Delta’s greater transmissibility has led to record levels of adult and pediatric cases of coronavirus across the country.

More child coronavirus cases — greater than 250,000 — were recorded in the past week than at any previous point in the pandemic, according to the most recent American Academy of Pediatrics survey of state data. More than five million children have tested positive for coronavirus since the pandemic’s start.

Public health experts caution that the magnitude of childhood infections matters even if most cases are mild, because scientists are still working to understand the long-term impacts of the disease, including “long Covid,” the presence of lingering neurological, physical or psychiatric symptoms after Covid infection.

“These are children whose development and futures may be compromised,” said Dr. James Versalovic, the interim pediatrician in chief at Texas Children’s Hospital. “The collective impact when we look ahead is significant.”

He added: “Children are our future adults.”

Can I get your post on Books on Tape?

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19 minutes ago, VelvetFreeze said:

everyone will get the coronavirus.  Now with natural immunity, most will not get the disease, COVID 19, caused by the coronavirus.

Just like when one of the 367 other known coronavirus' go through a classroom or an office.  The majority are not affected.  A large majority.  

Get out in the Sun.  Eat healthy and you'll be fine.

Fat peoole suck.

GTFO here with your Facebook misinformation bullshit.

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45 minutes ago, VelvetFreeze said:

everyone will get the coronavirus.  Now with natural immunity, most will not get the disease, COVID 19, caused by the coronavirus.

Just like when one of the 367 other known coronavirus' go through a classroom or an office.  The majority are not affected.  A large majority.  

Get out in the Sun.  Eat healthy and you'll be fine.

Fat peoole suck.

Not as much as you suck, dumas.

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Big case day in Travis County today - 1037 cases - hair over 300 more vs this day last week. 549 hospitalized. This sucks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/9 vs 9/8 12 103 154 223 203 128 93 69 32 20 1037
% of Daily Change 1.16% 9.93% 14.85% 21.50% 19.58% 12.34% 8.97% 6.65% 3.09% 1.93%  
% of Total Cases 0.74% 5.22% 11.10% 25.51% 20.81% 14.68% 10.74% 6.33% 3.00% 1.87%  
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