COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[XYZ 2,154]

Somebody I know who was fully vaccinated went from “fine” to having difficulty breathing in 1.5 hours. His oxygen saturation had dropped into the high 80s very fast.

[bolverk 29,659]

6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Somebody I know who was fully vaccinated went from “fine” to having difficulty breathing in 1.5 hours. His oxygen saturation had dropped into the high 80s very fast.

Cool. I know at least a half dozen unvaccinated people who are dead from the disease.

[Snake Diggity 4,620]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Somebody I know who was fully vaccinated went from “fine” to having difficulty breathing in 1.5 hours. His oxygen saturation had dropped into the high 80s very fast.

What is the point of this comment?  Because on first read it seems like just  a ridiculously vague anecdote aimed at lessening confidence in the vaccine.  In which case, stfu.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[AUS-97HORN 11,757]

5 hours ago, bolverk said:

Cool. I know at least a half dozen unvaccinated people who are dead from the disease.

 

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

What is the point of this comment?  Because on first read it seems like just  a ridiculously vague anecdote aimed at lessening confidence in the vaccine.  In which case, stfu.

I am guessing Bolverk was trying to point out that the friend got off "easy" by still being alive.... but in an incredibly condescending tone. 

bascically being a bit a dick for no reason. 

[bolverk 29,659]

5 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I am guessing Bolverk was trying to point out that the friend got off "easy" by still being alive.... but in an incredibly condescending tone. 

bascically being a bit a dick for no reason. 

If you hadn't noticed, that particular poster has consistently downplayed the importance of getting the vaccine the last few months.

Edited September 14, 2021 by bolverk
the not a

[Bookman 4,638]

5 hours ago, XYZ said:

Somebody I know who was fully vaccinated went from “fine” to having difficulty breathing in 1.5 hours. His oxygen saturation had dropped into the high 80s very fast.

It sucks that the unvaccinated have fucked up so badly, but hey this is a pretty stupid country.

[Anastasis 23,465]

6 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

bascically being a bit a dick for no reason. 

New motto. 

[XYZ 2,154]

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

What is the point of this comment?  Because on first read it seems like just  a ridiculously vague anecdote aimed at lessening confidence in the vaccine.  In which case, stfu.

The point of this comment is that if you are fully vaccinated, be alert, because if you happen to be one of the unlucky few who get hit hard by delta, it tends to strike fast. The hospital doctors who took care of my acquaintance told him that that’s more the norm than the exception with vaccinated people and this current delta wave. But you know what, if you get triggered by anything that may remotely lessen your confidence in the vaccine, then I suggest you put me on ignore.

[Eskimohorn 5,633]

The point of this comment is that if you are fully vaccinated, be alert, because if you happen to be one of the unlucky few who get hit hard by delta, it tends to strike fast. The hospital doctors who took care of my acquaintance told him that that’s more the norm than the exception with vaccinated people and this current delta wave. But you know what, if you get triggered by anything that may remotely lessen your confidence in the vaccine, then I suggest you put me on ignore.

Unvaccinated are:

4x more likely to get covid
10x more likely to get hospitalized
11x more likely to die

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

The hospital doctors who took care of my acquaintance told him that that’s more the norm than the exception with vaccinated people and this current delta wave. 

Horseshit. Fucking liar.

[yoladu 4,093]

On 9/8/2021 at 4:22 PM, High Plains Drifter said:

 

A couple of weeks back we went to my daughter's open house/meet the teacher/whatever-the-fuck. Four grades (5-8), plus all their parents crammed into one cafeteria that was standing room only. <10% mask wearing in the parents, not a single school administrator and very few teachers had masks. Crowded, hot, AC obviously not up to the task.

I noped right the fuck out of there. (I would have noped right the fuck out of there even if we weren't in a pandemic). I don't see my public school doing jack shit, not even making a token effort.

Fucking enraging.

 

Open House at Austin High yesterday evening. Parents. Teachers, Administrators, Kids - EVERYONE was masked.

Was heartening to see.

[High Plains Drifter 11,035]

 

My wife's old secretary died of covid a few days back. She was vaxxed, but had a kidney transplant 5 years ago or so (so maybe she had a diminshed immune system, I dunno). She had been very careful (always wore a mask outside of the house, yadda yadda yadda).

[High Plains Drifter 11,035]

24 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Open House at Austin High yesterday evening. Parents. Teachers, Administrators, Kids - EVERYONE was masked.

Was heartening to see.

 

Yeah, that's the difference between commie Austin and freedom-loving, small, rural town.

[sidis 9,825]

12 hours ago, XYZ said:

The hospital doctors who took care of my acquaintance told him that that’s more the norm than the exception with vaccinated people and this current delta wave.

dude, come on...

[Captainant 27,644]

10 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

My wife's old secretary died of covid a few days back. She was vaxxed, but had a kidney transplant 5 years ago or so (so maybe she had a diminshed immune system, I dunno). She had been very careful (always wore a mask outside of the house, yadda yadda yadda).

this jives with the reporting I've seen around vaccinated deaths/hospitalizations - it's predominantly the folks who are in a weakened state or otherwise immunocompromised who are getting the worst of the breakthrough infections

[High Plains Drifter 11,035]

20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

this jives with the reporting I've seen around vaccinated deaths/hospitalizations - it's predominantly the folks who are in a weakened state or otherwise immunocompromised who are getting the worst of the breakthrough infections

 

And I wonder how many of those infections could have been prevented if we had a vaccination rate of 90+%.

 

[UTHornFan014 710]

 
My wife's old secretary died of covid a few days back. She was vaxxed, but had a kidney transplant 5 years ago or so (so maybe she had a diminshed immune system, I dunno). She had been very careful (always wore a mask outside of the house, yadda yadda yadda).

Yeah... She would have been on immunosuppressants after a transplant.

That is what I'm worried about with my dad. He has had a liver transplant due to Liver cancer 8+ years ago and is on a couple immunosuppressants (Prograf and Cellcept). He is fully vaccinated (along with a booster), but is 70+ years old with a compromised immune system.

How old was your wife's secretary?

[High Plains Drifter 11,035]

 

not sure, I'm going to guestimate about 60 or so.

 

[Born to Run 6,569]

Open House at Austin High yesterday evening. Parents. Teachers, Administrators, Kids - EVERYONE was masked.
Was heartening to see.

Same at Anderson. There were maybe two dumbass dudes not masked.

They have had 10 cases total so far this year between staff and students. 2200 Students. Compare that to schools without mandates.

[fuggled 576]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

this jives with the reporting I've seen around vaccinated deaths/hospitalizations - it's predominantly the folks who are in a weakened state or otherwise immunocompromised who are getting the worst of the breakthrough infections

jibes

[smoky 840]

412 cases today (plus weekend) for Travis County. I don't like seeing the 70 to 79 & 80+ groups outpacing their pandemic to date share as that does not bode well for deaths.

Age Bracket		1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 9/13 vs 9/10	3	47	72	86	72	44	43	19	15	11	412
% of Daily Change	0.73%	11.41%	17.48%	20.87%	17.48%	10.68%	10.44%	4.61%	3.64%	2.67%
% of Total Cases	0.74%	5.29%	11.16%	25.45%	20.78%	14.67%	10.72%	6.31%	2.99%	1.87%

Hey Brazil, On Austin's surveillance dashboard, they have a map that shows zip codes with the highest counts in the past 7, 14 and 21 days. (Spoiler, it's always Pflugerville)

In your reporting to us, are you able to find that dataset of positives by zip?

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

Quote

The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.

A lot of people are hospitalized with covid and are mild and asymptotic and not because of Covid.  This article in The Atlantic discusses it.  And the percentage of people hospitalized with Covid and not because of it has increased.  
 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/

 

[dcbc 14,468]

3 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

My wife's old secretary died of covid a few days back. She was vaxxed, but had a kidney transplant 5 years ago or so (so maybe she had a diminshed immune system, I dunno). She had been very careful (always wore a mask outside of the house, yadda yadda yadda).

I believe the antirejection drugs reduce the efficacy of the vaccine.  My niece, (older half-niece I guess) just had a transplant in June and is dealing with the same thing.

[hookemATL 11,711]

3 hours ago, UTHornFan014 said:

Yeah... She would have been on immunosuppressants after a transplant.

That is what I'm worried about with my dad. He has had a liver transplant due to Liver cancer 8+ years ago and is on a couple immunosuppressants (Prograf and Cellcept). He is fully vaccinated (along with a booster), but is 70+ years old with a compromised immune system.

How old was your wife's secretary?

Brother?  This is my dad as well. Scares the shit out of me. 

[BrazilHorn 6,586]

3 hours ago, smoky said:

Hey Brazil, On Austin's surveillance dashboard, they have a map that shows zip codes with the highest counts in the past 7, 14 and 21 days. (Spoiler, it's always Pflugerville)

In your reporting to us, are you able to find that dataset of positives by zip?

Let me take a look and see if I can pull this set out of what they are putting online. I am on road this week so it'll be next week before I can dig deep into this stuff.

Welp - you got me curious so I said "Fuck it" and looked.

Here is link to dataset:

https://atc-covid19data-austin.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/austin-travis-zip-code-counts-public-view/explore

78660 is the largest zip accounting for 10.12% of all Covid Cases to date

Here is a list of the top zip codes in terms of their overall share of cases. I used whatever neighborhood names popped up on zipcode lookup and/or looked at what High School was zoned to that zip code.

78660	10.12%	Pfluger
78744	6.10%	Right by ABIA
78753	5.18%	Pflugerville (Zones to Connolly)
78741	5.03%	Pleasant Valley
78745	4.54%	Garrison Park
78758	4.54%	North Austin (Zones to Lanier HS)
78748	4.07%	South Austin (Zones to Akins HS)
78704	3.60%	Westlake/Rollingwood
78653	3.34%	Webberville
78724	3.29%	East Austin (Zones to LBJ HS)
78617	3.20%	Del Valle
78723	2.47%	Windsor Park
78702	2.45%	East Austin
78705	2.38%	Hyde Park/UT

Edited September 14, 2021 by BrazilHorn

[BrazilHorn 6,586]

Travis co cases for today 676 with 537 hospitalized. If I add yesterday's cases and today's together (to equate last Tuesday's numbers which included labor day) we are ~200 below so ideally that trend holds.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 9/14 vs 9/13	6	77	126	145	126	74	63	33	19	7	676
% of Daily Change	0.89%	11.39%	18.64%	21.45%	18.64%	10.95%	9.32%	4.88%	2.81%	1.04%
% of Total Cases	0.74%	5.33%	11.21%	25.43%	20.77%	14.65%	10.71%	6.30%	2.99%	1.86%

[Gatorubet 30,189]

Hopefully the widow can find someone new that can be a better husband and father to her/her kids.

Widow pics not loading…

[atomheartbevo 89,635]

Up to over 60,000 participants in a fairly short time ( a week or two ago, it seemed to be around 24,000).

https://sph.uth.edu/projects/texascares/dashboard

Way too many numbers to post.  Maybe the Surly Math Brigrade can pull interesting stuff out of there.

 

[Brisketexan 105,090]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Up to over 60,000 participants in a fairly short time ( a week or two ago, it seemed to be around 24,000).

https://sph.uth.edu/projects/texascares/dashboard

Way too many numbers to post.  Maybe the Surly Math Brigrade can pull interesting stuff out of there.

 

So, looks like among survey participants, total seropositivity is around 76% -- does that include BOTH COVID+ folks and vaccinated, so that's a combined seropositivity?  Not sure I understand how they're using the term throughout.

[Eskimohorn 5,633]

The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.

A lot of people are hospitalized with covid and are mild and asymptotic and not because of Covid.  This article in The Atlantic discusses it.  And the percentage of people hospitalized with Covid and not because of it has increased.  
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/
 

A lot of unvaccinated folks are slipping on their tea.

[South Austin 52,460]

I’ve always been amused with the reference to a patient “presenting” at a hospital. Like somebody just strolls into the ER with a Power Point discussing their symptoms.

[Pato del Muerto 52,488]

20 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’ve always been amused with the reference to a patient “presenting” at a hospital. Like somebody just strolls into the ER with a Power Point discussing their symptoms.

[DDD Dad 14,331]

The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.

A lot of people are hospitalized with covid and are mild and asymptotic and not because of Covid.  This article in The Atlantic discusses it.  And the percentage of people hospitalized with Covid and not because of it has increased.  
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/
 

From the article—
“One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.””

[Bozo_Casanova 26,440]

22 hours ago, Captainant said:

this jives with the reporting I've seen around vaccinated deaths/hospitalizations - it's predominantly the folks who are in a weakened state or otherwise immunocompromised who are getting the worst of the breakthrough infections

Jibes. 

[Armybrat 40,827]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

I’ve always been amused with the reference to a patient “presenting” at a hospital. Like somebody just strolls into the ER with a Power Point discussing their symptoms.

I have walked into hospital ERs twice doing similar.

The first time turned out to be an angina attack, resulting in 2 stent implants (100% blockage).

The second time turned out to be an actual heart attack resulting in another stent implant (inside an older stent) for 80% blockage.

Not amusing at the time, but provided a lot of fodder for jokes later on. 

[texasdago 7,570]

About the zip codes in Travis county... its always Pflugerville.  Every week.  Week over week.... Covid champion!

[gyroprotagonist 2,592]

22 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I have walked into hospital ERs twice doing similar.

The first time turned out to be an angina attack, resulting in 2 stent implants (100% blockage).

The second time turned out to be an actual heart attack resulting in another stent implant (inside an older stent) for 80% blockage.

Not amusing at the time, but provided a lot of fodder for jokes later on. 

...and that concludes my TED talk

[Armybrat 40,827]

3 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

...and that concludes my TED talk

No extra charge tho.

[DDD Dad 14,331]

48 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Jibes. 

[South Austin 52,460]

53 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I have walked into hospital ERs twice doing similar.

The first time turned out to be an angina attack, resulting in 2 stent implants (100% blockage).

The second time turned out to be an actual heart attack resulting in another stent implant (inside an older stent) for 80% blockage.

Not amusing at the time, but provided a lot of fodder for jokes later on. 

I'm guessing that instead of a Power Point you used a transparency projector.

[BabaYaga 15,290]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'm guessing that instead of a Power Point you used a transparency projector.

Probably used more overt, visual aids

[Brisketexan 105,090]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'm guessing that instead of a Power Point you used a transparency projector.

Bullshit.  He can't handle such technology.  Which makes it all the more admirable that he hauled in an entire cave wall to explain his situation in pictographs.

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

3 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

A lot of people are hospitalized with covid and are mild and asymptotic and not because of Covid.  This article in The Atlantic discusses it.  And the percentage of people hospitalized with Covid and not because of it has increased.  
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/
 

From the article—
“One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.””

That is awesome and why everyone should be vaccinated.

I do not understand though, why, we would count someone who is asymptomatic or with the sniffles, who is in the hospital for other reasons as a "Covid" hospitalization.  It is misleading.  Covid hospitalizations should be limited to those who are in the hospital because of Covid.

[Brisketexan 105,090]

7 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Covid hospitalizations should be limited to those who are in the hospital because of Covid.

That, I generally agree with.  That said, if you end up in the  hospital for something else, but you pop COVID positive, they have to isolate and treat you as any other infectious COVID patient.  So, the hospital has to burn the room and follow the burdensome COVID practices, so from their administrative perspective, maybe it's not a meaningful difference.

But from an epidemiology, vaccine-effectiveness perspective, it sure as shit matters.  How many people got sick enough from COVID that they had to go to the hospital?  That's the valuable number.

[Captainant 27,644]

10 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I do not understand though, why, we would count someone who is asymptomatic or with the sniffles, who is in the hospital for other reasons as a "Covid" hospitalization.  It is misleading.  Covid hospitalizations should be limited to those who are in the hospital because of Covid.

yes and no - if someone is COVID positive in a hospital, even if they're not sick from it, they're gonna take up a ton more time and resources just dealing with infectious disease protocols that further increases the strain on that hospital's staff and PPE supplies.

Even if those people weren't hospitalized because of COVID, it's still a major risk factor that the hospital has to spend effort mitigating.

[Brisketexan 105,090]

26 minutes ago, Captainant said:

yes and no - if someone is COVID positive in a hospital, even if they're not sick from it, they're gonna take up a ton more time and resources just dealing with infectious disease protocols that further increases the strain on that hospital's staff and PPE supplies.

Even if those people weren't hospitalized because of COVID, it's still a major risk factor that the hospital has to spend effort mitigating.

Agreed, but see my post above.  It tells us something from a hospital management standpoint, but it doesn't tell us anything accurately regarding "how many COVID infections require hospitalizations for treatment of that infection."

[Huckleberry 32,850]

All good points. It would be nice if both were tracked. The information they're tracking now is important for hospital operations but not helpful for other purposes. 

I like it when people agree on obvious stuff instead of the usual bullshit so I thought I'd pile on. But just to be clear you're all wrong and evil and I hate you anyway because you're in the pocket of Big Wrongness.

[ABSR 5,308]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Bullshit.  He can't handle such technology.  Which makes it all the more admirable that he hauled in an entire cave wall to explain his situation in pictographs.

To be fair, he had the Powerpoint, it was just upside down.

[Brisketexan 105,090]

36 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

All good points. It would be nice if both were tracked. The information they're tracking now is important for hospital operations but not helpful for other purposes. 

I like it when people agree on obvious stuff instead of the usual bullshit so I thought I'd pile on. But just to be clear you're all wrong and evil and I hate you anyway because you're in the pocket of Big Wrongness.

So long as it's a Hot Pocket.

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

On 9/13/2021 at 11:01 PM, Eskimohorn said:

Unvaccinated are:

4x more likely to get covid
10x more likely to get hospitalized
11x more likely to die

Those numbers are narrowing from before then- right?  At one point in time we were over 99% of deaths from unvax v vax, right?  Now we are at 91/9?  Is that because more vax are dying with delta or just b/c there are more people getting shots so fewer unvaxed people to get it?

My best friends MIL just died.  She was relatively young (like early 60's). Such a waste. I will never understand grown up people not getting the vaccine.