COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[texasdago 7587]

Well, here's what I came to realize in our brief trip to Houston... this MF'er is spreading like wildfire.  We have a certain group of friends that tends to be our more trusted "circle of friends" so to speak... it is not tearing through that circle.  Five (known) cases across four families... never seen spread like this.  Get ready (and I'm sure the usual suspects will keep denying its happening) 

 

[BrazilHorn 6636]

2 minutes ago, Bravo said:

like a UT game?

Except that is heavily outdoors vs queuing up for a long time in an indoor setting (like an airport). Feel free to argue spread of a respiratory illness being spread the same indoor vs outdoors if you'd like.

I am just making point that these are some heavy indoor crowds with a variant being described as ~10x more infectious than the earlier variants (though looking to be less severe in terms of hospitalizations etc).

 

[alincoln 2385]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

UK also has much better immunization rates than we do and a much lower obesity and chronic disease burden. I wish we were comparing apples to apples but we still have a cross the fingers and hail Mary for Omicron in the U.S.

Exactly.  Omicron will hit the US harder than other Western democracies because of the lower vaccination rates and higher obesity rates.  The early data certainly suggests that Omicron is accompanied by less severe symptoms than previous variants (potentially significantly less severe) despite its virulence but fatties and the unvaccinated remain at high risk.  For boosted individuals in relatively good shape, omicron looks like a mild cold if you even experience symptoms at all..  

[gurt 751]

9 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Not sure where you saw this, but it's plausible this combo was a winner in India as it could be in other developing countries, but not by directly treating Covid. It also would have much less success in this country due to overall greater health.

Lots of people in India and elsewhere without proper sanitation have parasitic diseases. Worms cause all sorts of systemic havoc and can inhabit the body long-term by suppressing the immune system. Worms plus any viral illness is a really bad combination. To treat Covid it would make lots of sense to first get rid of the worms. Hence Ivermectin.

I could see a broad spectrum antibiotic like azithromycin being useful for similar reasons. Even things like tooth abscesses are comorbidities that should be treated to increase the survival rates of Covid patients. Doctors shouldn't just be throwing around antibiotics, but last spring was an extraordinary circumstance, so why not? Worry about resistant germs later.

Not sure about vitamin D but much of the world is chronically deficient so it can't hurt.

tl;dr Throw that cocktail at your random developing world resident and watch their survivability skyrocket.

The Economist reported exactly this recently: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/11/27/ivermectin-may-help-covid-19-patients-but-only-those-with-worms

[texasdago 7587]

1 minute ago, alincoln said:

Exactly.  Omicron will hit the US harder than other Western democracies because of the lower vaccination rates and higher obesity rates.  The early data certainly suggests that Omicron is accompanied by less severe symptoms than previous variants (potentially significantly less severe) despite its virulence but fatties and the unvaccinated remain at high risk.  For boosted individuals in relatively good shape, omicron looks like a mild cold if you even experience symptoms at all..  

First Omicron death in the US happened in Harris County this week... unvaxxed dude in his 50s.  One of my friends who is fully vaxxed and has a breakthrough case told me he feels like he has allergies.  Get that booster, yo.

[babysdaddy 2728]

49 minutes ago, Bravo said:

they're wearing masks. 

 

cloth masks are useless

[texasdago 7587]

BTW, those talking about obesity in US vs UK... don't assume the Brits are slender because they are within shouting distance of France.  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5750341/Bigger-11-year-olds-England-obese-United-States.html

 

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/two-maps-and-one-graph-comparing-obesity-in-america-and-europe/

 

Woot Woot Italy but unfortunately the number of elderly wipes out that advantage with Covid.

[TexArcher 38080]

36 minutes ago, Bravo said:

Maybe omicron is actually the best thing during this pandemic to happen with it appearing to be milder?

Pretty sure the jury is still out on the milder part.

If it's even half as deadly as Delta, but also much more contagious, then the unvaxxed are still in a world of shit.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Pretty sure the jury is still out on the milder part.

If it's even half as deadly as Delta, but also much more contagious, then the unvaxxed are still in a world of shit.

Exactly.  The British say no.

[TexArcher 38080]

8 minutes ago, Bravo said:

The S. Africa number for death with a low vax rate indicate initially otherwise.

Counterpoint:

 

Infections caused by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus do not appear to be less severe than infections from Delta, according to early data from the UK.

Researchers at Imperial College London compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections with nearly 200,000 people infected with other variants. So far, according to a report issued ahead of peer review and updated on Monday, they see "no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection."

 

From:  Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility | Reuters

 

Bottom line: we really don't know yet.

Edited December 21, 2021 by TexArcher

[texasdago 7587]

But we are starting to see that the ones ending up in the hospital are...

drumroll.........

Unvaccinated.

 

Saw numbers from a hospital system in the New York City area where the surge is taking place that 80% of patients are unvaxxed.  Here's an article about PA which refers to 80-90%

https://www.witf.org/2021/12/13/hospitals-across-pa-are-overflowing-with-mostly-unvaccinated-patients/

MA - paywall - https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/13/nation/mass-rise-covid-19-hospitalizations-is-driven-by-those-who-are-unvaccinated-baker-says/

Also... At Tufts Medical Center, 25% of COVID patients are vaccinated. None are in an ICU. At Boston Medical Center, 32% of COVID patients are vaccinated, and just one is the ICU.

[Pato del Muerto 52625]

4 minutes ago, Bravo said:

we don't know yet but the huge separation in deaths from the highest surge of cases ever in S. Africa where it has been present in a low vaxxed population for several weeks is interesting and promising.

Well a lot more of the world has now been de-wormed and better able to fight off a viral infection. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Pato del Muerto

[Hmbre97 6333]

I'm done caring about the unvaxxed. They've had a year to get their shit together.

[Bevo 13602]

1 hour ago, alincoln said:

Exactly.  Omicron will hit the US harder than other Western democracies because of the lower vaccination rates and higher obesity rates.  The early data certainly suggests that Omicron is accompanied by less severe symptoms than previous variants (potentially significantly less severe) despite its virulence but fatties and the unvaccinated remain at high risk.  For boosted individuals in relatively good shape, omicron looks like a mild cold if you even experience symptoms at all..  

Well, if it actually is weaker (hopefully a lot weaker), it could be just what we need. Wishful thinking, but an attenuated virus might provide a robust adjuvant to vaccines that target the spike protein. So instead of being a killer, it might assist our vaccination efforts. Wishful thinking

[Hefeweizen 5340]

Normally I oppose quadruple posts but in this case have my rep.

[Hmbre97 6333]

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Normally I oppose quadruple posts but in this case have my rep.

lol, fucking tapa. I wish I could quit it but like a crazy ex who likes anal, I just keep going back.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

 

 

[Bevo 13602]

1 minute ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

 

declining U.S. population growth or declining US population - two very different things.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

9 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

lol, fucking tapa. I wish I could quit it but like a crazy ex who likes anal, I just keep going back.

I'm not sure this was written exactly how you meant it.

[Pato del Muerto 52625]

22 minutes ago, Bravo said:

This is lagging data though and likely almost all delta variant patients as they likely contracted it in Nov.

compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections

I am assuming they correctly vetted the people via conformational testing or contact tracing leading to a confirmed omicron case. 

[GreenspointTexas 9686]

Silver lining: a lot of the people that were gonna die from covid already died over the past 22 months?

[Skipper 6210]

1 hour ago, Bravo said:

The S. Africa number for death with a low vax rate indicate initially otherwise.

I think one reason why the jury is still out is that S. Africa has a much younger population than most places  So statistically their death rate would have been significantly lower with any variant given that age has proven to be the single greatest risk factor for poor outcomes.

[Newdoc 3453]

16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think one reason why the jury is still out is that S. Africa has a much younger population than most places  So statistically their death rate would have been significantly lower with any variant 

The suggestion that a bunch of them have natural immunity from previous infections is also a variable bc their immunization rates make Texas look responsible.

[Pato del Muerto 52625]

@Bravo it seems like you are simultaneously saying omicron hasn’t been around long enough for us to know the lagging effects such as hospitalization and death, and using the lack of a death spike as evidence that it isn’t as deadly. Am I misreading your posts?

[Ghost of LL 15545]

1 hour ago, Hmbre97 said:

I'm done caring about the unvaxxed. They've had a year to get their shit together.

That's where I am.  I may take a precaution to protect myself, but I'm not doing a single goddamned thing to protect the unvaccinated.  Fuck them.

[texasdago 7587]

Here's Italy...

[DDD Dad 14358]

1 minute ago, texasdago said:

Here's Italy...

Username checks out.

[Skipper 6210]

I'll agree all the data I've seen so far seems to indicate Omicron isn't as bad as it could have been although I guess we'll see how the older unvaxed Americans fare.  Unfortunately far too many in this country. It's going to be fascinating to watch this play out.   All the nerds/scientist seem to be amazed at how quickly this spreads.  

I'm starting to wonder if we had it sweep through our house a couple of weeks back.  Kids were sent home from school with a cough that developed on a Tues with 5 year old.  Kept them both home Weds as 2 year old developed cough as well.  Then Thurs 2 year old woke up with a fever Thurs and did 1 home rapid test and it was negative so assumed a cold. Both kids seemed fine by Fri, but both my wife and I woke up with it that morning.  Mine was super mild and felt fine by Sunday.  Wife's was less mild, lingered a few more days and was tired for about a week.  Maybe it was just a cold but I was boosted 2.5 months ago and wife was just boosted on same day kids were sent home (so if it was Covid booster didn't help).  I'm hoping that was it at least.  

[Guest Lobo]

5 minutes ago, Bravo said:

I agree. Let's stop obsessing about getting people to do what they're not going to do by now. 

I disagree.  There's one more thing those people who aren't doing to do by now, can still do for the common good.  

[Foosters 17889]

2 minutes ago, Bravo said:

How do you force people who haven't taken the vax for a yr now? I'd think short of doing something completely outside the constitution that isn't going to happen. 

You have people show proof of vaccine to enter certain establishments. Like several jurisdictions are already doing.

[The Ace of Aces 5194]

35 minutes ago, Bravo said:

How do you force people who haven't taken the vax for a yr now? I'd think short of doing something completely outside the constitution that isn't going to happen. 

Insurence companies should drop all unvaxxed customers. 

[royiv 9387]

1 minute ago, Bravo said:

Sounding unconstitutional 

Please point me to the section of the constitution that addresses insurance.

Edited December 21, 2021 by royiv

[Guest Lobo]

Insurance companies dropping people for health choices they make is unconstitutional?  Okay, cool.  I’m gonna go take up black tar heroin and assume my coverage will continue unabated.  

[LurkingHorn 1072]

I do wish, at the very least, insurance companies would raise premiums on the unvaccinated like Delta Airlines did. You want to be unvaccinated? Fine. But it's going to cost you. 

[HRSchenker 2275]

14 minutes ago, Bravo said:

Sounding unconstitutional and creating an even bigger problem. 

If anything, it solves a problem that we as a country have created as policy. We have fundamentally changed the way health insurance companies operate as compared with every other insurance provider. 

[Surly Bevo 25216]

58 minutes ago, Bravo said:

How do you force people who haven't taken the vax for a yr now? I'd think short of doing something completely outside the constitution that isn't going to happen. 

Mutation with 50+% unvaxxed kill rate while vaxved kill rate remains close to 0.   Freedom and shit would get real shaky real quick.

[Don Johnson 4757]

9 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Mutation with 50+% unvaxxed kill rate while vaxved kill rate remains close to 0.   Freedom and shit would get real shaky real quick.

Well, of course you would see an increase in vaccinations.  1) I hope that doesn't happen.  2) If it did, their freedoms wouldn't change.  Something they see as unnecessary would simply become necessary.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Don Johnson

[South Austin 52634]

44 minutes ago, Bravo said:

Sounding unconstitutional and creating an even bigger problem. 

Tell me you're a moron without telling me you're a moron.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

On 12/17/2021 at 11:13 PM, Slice said:

 

 

You’re evidently mocking this person, but she is a perfect example. No matter what you do Covid is hard to avoid. In that case the most important thing is to get vaccinated. She’s very unlikely to be hospitalized despite her obvious risk factors. Good for her. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

4 hours ago, Bevo said:

declining U.S. population growth or declining US population - two very different things.

 

[InkaUtexas 26181]

Judging from that chart, post war is good for making babies. Must be some science there. 

[Deej 76972]

Five new cases at work since Friday. Glad I'm on vacation.

[Ghost of LL 15545]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

I disagree.  There's one more thing those people who aren't doing to do by now, can still do for the common good.  

I think you and Dan Patrick are on the same page.

3 hours ago, Bravo said:

How do you force people who haven't taken the vax for a yr now? I'd think short of doing something completely outside the constitution that isn't going to happen. 

That's . . . not what Lobo was suggesting.

[Guest Lobo]

Ding.  Ding.  Ding.  

The poster with a swordsmen for an avatar realized the correct answer.  We were looking for "What is 'fall on the sword'?"  

And I just realized after all this time, that's Dominic West.  I thought it Kenneth Brannagh (sp?)  

[Bevo 13602]

53 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

Having been to South Texas hunting recently,  I don't believe those numbers.

[Ghost of LL 15545]

28 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Ding.  Ding.  Ding.  

The poster with a swordsmen for an avatar realized the correct answer.  We were looking for "What is 'fall on the sword'?"  

And I just realized after all this time, that's Dominic West.  I thought it Kenneth Brannagh (sp?)  

You're thinking of Malcolm McDowell, who made that horrid movie in the 70's.

I wish they would do a new Flashman movie.  The character is a perfectly awful as a human being, but is somehow sympathetic because of his humor and dumb luck.

But back to the point--yeah, the unvaxxed could do one final service to King and Empire by just fucking dying already.

[Deej 76972]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But back to the point--yeah, the unvaxxed could do one final service to King and Empire by just fucking dying already.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Having been to South Texas hunting recently,  I don't believe those numbers.

It's by far the worst we've ever seen down there. 

[We’reTexas 1473]

16 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

It's by far the worst we've ever seen down there. 

Brown people reproducing?

[Telegraph_it 3359]

5 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

Brown people reproducing?

The preferred term is Latinx.