COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BonzoMontreaux 1,114]

Wife and I are both vaccinated, no boosters.  No known cases before these.  Both had it starting around the second week of January.  Thought it was Cedar Fever or even the flu.  Did not really suffer a lot.  My taste buds went out of whack and we both felt like we could not get enough sleep and did feel weak.  Have made it through about a week of not needing a nap about two hours after getting up.

Anyways, fuck this stuff.

 

[Anastasis 23,508]

Paging @BrazilHorn.

ATX showed 10k new cases today.  Must be a massive data dump, right? 

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Paging @BrazilHorn.

ATX showed 10k new cases today.  Must be a massive data dump, right? 

It would look so and that's a challenge with Travis County is they will do catch up etc.

It used to be Tuesdays were the "true-up" days.  Prior high day was 6,721 on Jan 25th, but since Jan 17th there have been five days (including today with over 2,000 cases) so some big spike days over the past couple of weeks.

[atomheartbevo 90,054]

Whole shitload of people just got free COVID tests in the mail.  But yeah, that seems like a catchup day, because no way thousands got a positive on their test and then registered it with the county or whatever.

[smoky 842]

Maybe that's AISD dumping their clinic scores into the pot?

[LurkingHorn 1,074]

What the hell is going on in Tarrant county? All the other major counties are in a nice nose dive but Tarrant has had rising cases the past few days. 

[South Austin 52,688]

12 hours ago, smoky said:

Maybe that's AISD dumping their clinic scores into the pot?

Maybe. But the district just announced its first significant decrease in cases.

[dmtx 159]

45 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

What the hell is going on in Tarrant county? All the other major counties are in a nice nose dive but Tarrant has had rising cases the past few days. 

maybe more testing????

Tarrant County Public Health reported Wednesday there are currently 1,118 people hospitalized with COVID-19. There were 1,149 hospitalizations the previous day.

This is the sixth time in the last seven days hospitalizations have decreased in Tarrant County.

 

Number of cases the last 14 days 1/20 to 2/2

2111

5034

3945

4306

2489

2595

1990

2124

1914

2175

1125

2040

1531

1718

[Anastasis 23,508]

These mofos drop a 10k number and then just take the day off cause it is cold.  I guess they drive the data over to APH every day and drop it off. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,878]

7 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

What the hell is going on in Tarrant county? All the other major counties are in a nice nose dive but Tarrant has had rising cases the past few days. 

Did a bunch of realtors recently take a little trip to Conroe?

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

How likely is it that you can have omicron but have both negative rapid and PCR tests?  My daughter had textbook symptoms for 6 days but tested negative at her doctor's office on day 4.  She also passed the free cheese test we just got from the FDA on day 3.  

[Pato del Muerto 52,878]

I don’t know, but my sil can’t buy a negative test. 
 

you’d think someone that absolutely hates the quarantine and missing her in-person work stuff would make a modicum of effort to not catch it, but nope.  She was a school teacher 10 years ago and therefore is immune to all things- even things that weren’t around 10 years ago. 

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t know, but my sil can’t buy a negative test. 
 

you’d think someone that absolutely hates the quarantine and missing her in-person work stuff would make a modicum of effort to not catch it, but nope.  She was a school teacher 10 years ago and therefore is immune to all things- even things that weren’t around 10 years ago. 

Maybe I got all the negative ones.

[InkaUtexas 26,356]

Friend goes to work on Sunday. 102 fever. Tests negative. They send her home for the day. Monday comes back, lower fever, tests negative they let her work. Off Tuesday. Wednesday tests positive. They tell her not only is she off for 10 days, she could be responsible for spreading it to kids and this threatens her job status. Hmmmmmmmm. 

 

[XYZ 2,154]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Friend goes to work on Sunday. 102 fever. Tests negative. They send her home for the day. Monday comes back, lower fever, tests negative they let her work. Off Tuesday. Wednesday tests positive. They tell her not only is she off for 10 days, she could be responsible for spreading it to kids and this threatens her job status. Hmmmmmmmm. 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Friend goes to work on Sunday. 102 fever. Tests negative. They send her home for the day. Monday comes back, lower fever, tests negative they let her work. Off Tuesday. Wednesday tests positive. They tell her not only is she off for 10 days, she could be responsible for spreading it to kids and this threatens her job status. Hmmmmmmmm. 

 

Your friend also makes up stories 

[4th_and_18 702]

Your friend also makes up stories 

[Bookman 4,726]

I don't understand why anyone would go to work sick right now.

[InkaUtexas 26,356]

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Your friend also makes up stories 

Nah.She works at a shitty place that would pull shit like this. 

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

16 hours ago, Anastasis said:

These mofos drop a 10k number and then just take the day off cause it is cold.  I guess they drive the data over to APH every day and drop it off. 

Just saw that the 10k cases were due to a new automated data entry process doing mass dumps. Real number was ~900 cases.

[BrickHorn 18,318]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Just saw that the 10k cases were due to a new automated data entry process doing mass dumps. Real number was ~900 cases.

So was that 10k redundant with the past couple weeks or something?

[Hefeweizen 5,357]

14 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nah.She works at a shitty place that would pull shit like this. 

She seems shitty for showing up with a 102 fever.  Fuck that, she should be fired for pulling that shit right now.

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

So was that 10k redundant with the past couple weeks or something?

That's what it looks like. They are updating their entry into this new system so it may take some time to get all the info put in. There was not a 10k case day though.

This is why I quit doing the daily pull as they were so slipshod historically and I would consistently see movement between age buckets up/down do to "fast fingering"

 

[InkaUtexas 26,356]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

She seems shitty for showing up with a 102 fever.  Fuck that, she should be fired for pulling that shit right now.

Agree. I would have fired her as well. Young, dumb and hourly. 

[South Austin 52,688]

For what it’s worth, McCallum High just reported 26 cases for Jan. 30 - Feb. 4. Granted, that’s without two days of testing because of the weather closure. But still, because it’s a testing site the numbers have been pretty sky high since the first of the year, so hopefully this is part of the greater downward trend.

[Homercles 10,206]

Absolutely love working from home…wear comfy shit clothes all day, run errands as needed, get some exercise, nurse a hangover, whatever.  But damn when I had Covid I only missed one day when I was really feeling total shite, in a normal office I’d have had another 3-4 days to reasonably shake off the cough/temp/fatigue but instead was fucking with excel formulas running a 100.5F snot factory.  Also no meeting cancellations due to the past two snow days.  

[dcbc 14,568]

7 hours ago, South Austin said:

For what it’s worth, McCallum High just reported 26 cases for Jan. 30 - Feb. 4. Granted, that’s without two days of testing because of the weather closure. But still, because it’s a testing site the numbers have been pretty sky high since the first of the year, so hopefully this is part of the greater downward trend.

Our district's cases fell off a cliff about two weeks ago.  We were seeing 11 or twelve cases per day per some campuses and, now, only a handful reported each week. 

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

Due to ice storm Travis County didn't update deaths for last week until today.

There were 21 deaths between 1/29 & 2/7.

They break down as follows by age group:

40 to 49 (3)

50 to 59 (3)

60 to 69 (6)

70 to 79 (4)

80+ (5)

Per State of Texas data you are 17x more likely to die if you catch Covid 19 and aren't vaccinated than if you are. At this point it is a moot point as people are entrenched in their beliefs as to vaccine efficacy but jeez it is silly that people aren't getting vaccinated that are in high risk groups (>60 and/or BMI >40)

[Snake Diggity 4,628]

CVS stock way down today as they announce they expect a huge reduction in sales of tests and vaccines.  Hoping these are the kinds of signals we can actually trust send an end to the pandemic.

Edited February 9, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Pato del Muerto 52,878]

Looking at the argis dashboard, Austin should be dropping to stage 4 by the end of the week. The 7 day new hospital admissions is at 58, has been dropping ~5 per day, and 50 is the 5/4 threshold. 
 

if that rate holds on the way down as long as it held on the way up, will hit stage 3 a week later at <25. 
 

looks like icu and vent patients are dropping too, though vent seems to have hit a plateau around 60 from a high of 72.  I assume that treatment tends to lag as people are on them for a while before they get better or expire. 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Brisketexan 105,576]

14 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

CVS stock way down today as they announce they expect a huge reduction in sales of tests and vaccines.  Hoping these are the kinds of signals we can actually trust send an end to the pandemic.

Honestly, while it's not perfect, "track the economic forecasts/planning" is a good tool in the toolbox to determine whether something is a credible trend.

People as a whole can push for things, or buy into an approach, for emotional reasons (because we WANT it to be true, or because it aligns with our political team, etc.).  Businesses?   They are cold and calculating, because their reasons are entirely $$$.  E.g., I think the book on anthropogenic global warming was officially closed once large corporations started changing their strategies -- including the investment and direction of billions of dollars -- accounting for the effects of same.

When Al Gore says AGW is real, who cares?  When Tucker Carlson says it's fake, who cares?  When Exxon makes multi-billion dollar investment decisions one way or the other, the issue is decided.

Here, when businesses are starting to make firm decisions based on expectations of where COVID goes, that isn't written in stone, but it's a strong piece of evidence that cuts through a lot of the noise.

[Storm the Field 5,305]

Texas 7-day moving average of reported cases has come back down to 25K/day from the peak of 65K/day back on 1/17. 

Nationally, it has dropped from 805K to 247K over that same timeframe. We're now back down just slightly below our previous high water mark of 250K/day back on 1/11/21.

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

Travis County just released data that 95% of all Covid deaths in Travis county area had a pre-existing condition.

[mchookem 16,519]

i wonder if they could cross that data with vaccination status...or do we already know that like 98% of deaths were also unvaccinated? 🤔

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

24 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Travis County just released data that 95% of all Covid deaths in Travis county area had a pre-existing condition.

Poor journalism, imo. Note that None and Unknown are different entries, and the effect of 5% None is to treat all Unknowns as yes.

[smoky 842]

i wonder if they could cross that data with vaccination status...or do we already know that like 98% of deaths were also unvaccinated?

Looking at the data, about half of Travis county's deaths happened before widespread rollout of vaccinations.

If I'm reading the data right, we were at 684 total, this time last year.

From then to now, 237 deaths were aged 70 and up. Add in 60+ and you're at 382 total.

That group was highly vaxxed, but older... And apparently had some other things going on.

It's probably a decent bet that the other 300 deaths were unvaccinated and had comorbities.

[mchookem 16,519]

oh. yeah... thanks, i just whiffed on the fact this was ALL deaths and not just Omicron 😜 duh lol

Edited February 9, 2022 by mchookem

[South Austin 52,688]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Looking at the argis dashboard, Austin should be dropping to stage 4 by the end of the week. The 7 day new hospital admissions is at 58, has been dropping ~5 per day, and 50 is the 5/4 threshold. 
 

if that rate holds on the way down as long as it held on the way up, will hit stage 3 a week later at <25.

[Pato del Muerto 52,878]

12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

End of the race or end of the stage, though?

[South Austin 52,688]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

End of the race or end of the stage, though?

 

And we mean it this time.

[BrazilHorn 6,651]

20 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

And we mean it this time.

Until the next variant "Whack-a-mole". Although I do think people 2 years in are now officially fucking over it. Those that were going to get vaxxed have, those that won't, haven't and we are in "it is what it is" land.

[Captainant 27,972]

36 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

And we mean it this time.

It'll be over by Easter! Third time's the charm

[Guest Lobo]

(checks spring equinox, lunar calendar, and other papacy witchcraft)....Easter falling in the middle week of the five weeks in which it can potentially occur.  

Yes, yes.  Pandemic will move to Endemic by Easter.  Of this year.  Or 2023.  Again, depends almost completely on the moon being vaxxed or not at this point.

[Pato del Muerto 52,878]

11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

(checks spring equinox, lunar calendar, and other papacy witchcraft)....Easter falling in the middle week of the five weeks in which it can potentially occur.  

Yes, yes.  Pandemic will move to Endemic by Easter.  Of this year.  Or 2023.  Again, depends almost completely on the moon being vaxxed or not at this point.

But the moon is made of cheese, and cheese breeds bacteria for flavor/texture. So we are goners either way. 

[Skipper 6,319]

41 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It'll be over by Easter! Third time's the charm

IF things are in good shape at Easter this year, this bit/meme will be all over the place.  And it will be great.

[dcar00 14,608]

the strange thing about this hospitalization and death spike in US is I never heard anything about hospitals being overrun even though the hospitalizations were much higher.

[bschoolprof 6,280]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

the strange thing about this hospitalization and death spike in US is I never heard anything about hospitals being overrun even though the hospitalizations were much higher.

It's because the overall hospital census didn't rise nearly as much - lots more "with" covid hospitalizations due to the mildness and contagiousness of omicron.   

[dcar00 14,608]

1 minute ago, bschoolprof said:

It's because the overall hospital census didn't rise nearly as much - lots more "with" covid hospitalizations due to the mildness and contagiousness of omicron.   

how do you know?

[Skipper 6,319]

43 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

how do you know?

I think that's technically speculation on a large scale but the handful of hospitals that I did see tracking that (NY for example) seemed to be ~ 40% "with" COVID.  I never did see any Texas hospitals breaking that down which was disappointing.

[Samson's Wig 3,195]

Family member died yesterday.  Pneumonia brought on by COVID.  Doctor told her not to get vaccinated due to MS.  We begged her to get a second opinion on that one, as there seems to be conflicting opinions, but ultimately she's the exact type of person everyone else should be mindful for.  She couldn't get vaccinated for medical reasons and ultimately died early after an already difficult life.  She lives in an area with low vaccination rates and low participation in any kind of mitigation.  She was wheelchair bound for years, but largely self sufficient.  Has hid inside for the last couple of years, including avoiding church.  Only went one place, ever, and that was to Sonic to get something to drink a couple of time a week.  Omicron is contagious as hell and people are still dying.  I'm as guilty as anyone of wanting this shit to just be over.  But it isn't over.