COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BabaYaga 15299]

24 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Survival of the fittest is nothing new

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

Austin changed up their dashboard again, removing the stage portion and descriptors and putting all of the trend lines onto one chart.  It feels less informative now, which I assume was the purpose of the change. 
 

looks like cdc put out a low/medium/high community risk measurement system that got adopted into the austin system in lieu of the stages.  

Edited March 30, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[DaysOff 7951]

31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think this is the most likely outcome.  We have long had one respiratory virus that can kill 80k a year in a bad year.  Now, we're going to add another that, going forward, may kill twice that in a year.  And we'll learn to live with that way of things.

And as to both, there will be an easy, safe vaccine available that will dramatically increase the survivability, and millions upon millions will refuse to get it, because reasons.

How we made it this far as a species is a mystery to me.

 

I give us 150 more years.

[Napoleon 8682]

1 minute ago, DaysOff said:

 

I give us 150 more years.

I’ll take that bet. 

[Napoleon 8682]

On 3/23/2022 at 7:32 PM, South Austin said:

…And my son’s friend’s mom tested positive today.

Pics?

 

39 minutes ago, Homercles said:

If your experience is anything like my wife and I, you’ll get over it quickly with a lingering week of not being 100%

Apparently the effect on one’s grammar lingers much longer than a week. 

Fucking modern viruses. 😣

[DDD Dad 14339]

NYT: Ivermectin Does Not Reduce Risk of Covid Hospitalization, Large Study Finds

Quote

“At some point it will become a waste of resources to continue studying an unpromising approach,” one expert said.

The anti-parasitic drug ivermectin, which has surged in popularity as an alternative treatment for Covid-19 despite a lack of strong research to back it up, showed no sign of alleviating the disease, according to results of a large clinical trial published on Wednesday.

The study, which compared more than 1,300 people infected with the coronavirus in Brazil who received either ivermectin or a placebo, effectively ruled out the drug as a treatment for Covid, the study’s authors said.

“There’s really no sign of any benefit,” said Dr. David Boulware, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota.

The researchers shared a summary of these results in August during an online presentation hosted by the National Institutes of Health, but the full data set had not been published until now in The New England Journal of Medicine.

“Now that people can dive into the details and the data, hopefully that will steer the majority of doctors away from ivermectin towards other therapies,” Dr. Boulware said.

For decades, Ivermectin has been widely used to treat parasitic infections. Early in the pandemic, when researchers were trying thousands of old drugs against Covid-19, laboratory experiments on cells suggested that ivermectin might block the coronavirus.

At the time, skeptics pointed out that the experiments worked thanks to high concentrations of the drug — far beyond safe levels for people. Nevertheless, some doctors began prescribing ivermectin for Covid-19, despite a warning from the Food and Drug Administration that it was not approved for such use.

Around the world, researchers carried out small clinical trials to see if the drug treated the disease. In December 2020, Andrew Hill, a virologist at the University of Liverpool in England, reviewed the results of 23 trials and concluded that ivermectin appeared to significantly lower the risk of death from Covid-19.

If larger trials confirmed those findings, Dr. Hill said in a presentation at the time, “this really is going to be a transformative treatment.”

Ivermectin’s popularity continued to climb in the pandemic’s second year. The podcaster Joe Rogan promoted it repeatedly on his shows. In a single week in August, U.S. insurance companies spent $2.4 million paying for ivermectin treatments

But not long after Dr. Hill published his review last summer, reports surfaced that many of the studies he included in the analysis were flawed and, in at least one case, alleged to be fraudulent. Dr. Hill retracted his original study and started a new one, which he published in January.

On their second review, Dr. Hill and his colleagues focused on the studies least likely to be biased. In that stricter survey, ivermectin’s benefit vanished.

Still, even the best studies on ivermectin and Covid were small, with a few hundred volunteers at most. Small studies can be vulnerable to statistical flukes that suggest positive effects where none actually exist. But larger studies on ivermectin were underway at the time, and those promised to be more rigorous.

In Brazil, researchers set up a clinical trial known as TOGETHER in June 2020 to test Covid patients with a number of widely used drugs, including ivermectin. The treatments were double-blinded, meaning that neither the patients nor their medical staff knew whether they received a Covid treatment drug or a placebo.

In one round of the trial, the researchers found promising evidence that an antidepressant drug called fluvoxamine reduced the need for hospitalization by one-third. The researchers published their results in October in The Lancet Global Health.

In a new study published on Wednesday, the TOGETHER team reported on its ivermectin data. Between March and August 2021, the researchers provided the drug to 679 patients over the course of three days.

The results were clear: Taking ivermectin did not reduce a Covid patient’s risk of ending up in the hospital.

The researchers zeroed in on different groups of volunteers to see if they experienced benefits that others didn’t. For example, it might be possible that ivermectin only worked if taken early in an infection. But volunteers who took ivermectin in the first three days after a positive coronavirus test turned out to have worse outcomes than did those in the placebo group.

Dr. Hill was impressed with the results. “They have run a high-quality, placebo-controlled trial,” he said. He also expressed impatience with the New England Journal of Medicine for taking months to publish the results: “I don’t understand the delay with this trial from NEJM.”

Julia Morins, a spokeswoman for the journal, declined to comment on the delay. “We don’t comment on the editorial process, as it’s confidential,” she said in an email.

Dr. Hill has run his analysis of ivermectin studies again, this time including the new data from the TOGETHER trial. All told, his analysis included more than 5,000 people. And once more, he saw no benefit from ivermectin.

Still, there are several ongoing randomized trials of ivermectin, with thousands of volunteers, that have yet to share their results. The National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, which is part of the N.I.H., has for more than a year been running one closely watched trial of ivermectin and several other drugs for Covid patients. But it has yet to release results.

Dr. Sarah Dunsmore, a program director in the clinical innovations division at NCATS, said that researchers were analyzing the first batch of results on ivermectin and would release them in two to three months.

Dr. Boulware doubted that the additional trials would come to a different conclusion, since the TOGETHER trial was so large and carefully designed. “Rarely would you expect to find something different,” he said.

Dr. Paul Sax, an infectious-disease expert at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston who was not involved in the TOGETHER trial, shared Dr. Boulware’s view.

“I welcome the results of the other clinical trials and will view them with an open mind, but at some point it will become a waste of resources to continue studying an unpromising approach,” he said.

 

[Anastasis 23472]

57 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

At some point it will become a waste of resources to continue studying an unpromising approach

"At some point"?  We are long past that point.  

 

But on a happy note a bunch of people have been dewormed. 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

4 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

NYT: Ivermectin Does Not Reduce Risk of Covid Hospitalization, Large Study Finds

If there had been any truth to it, Merck would have been the first one to let everybody know.

Speaking of studies, the good news is that there will be a lot more treatments coming online this year. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

Tested positive today. Feel like shit. Vaxxed and boosted in December. This bug really sucks. My wife quarantined me to the bedroom so I have a five day vacation from the family. On one hand there will be peace and quiet. On the other, I'm going to go stir crazy. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

And for the record, I feel much better today. The first two days were a little rough with fever and chills, but now it's just a bit of a stuffy head. I honestly don't know if I'm having more of a reaction to the oak pollen or the rona right now. 

Still imprisoned in my bedroom but I couldn't be happier that I'm vaxxed. 

[Armybrat 40850]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

And for the record, I feel much better today. The first two days were a little rough with fever and chills, but now it's just a bit of a stuffy head. I honestly don't know if I'm having more of a reaction to the oak pollen or the rona right now. 

Still imprisoned in my bedroom but I couldn't be happier that I'm vaxxed. 

Good to hear.

I’m sure Mrs. Cumsteen’s artistic decorating skills made your confinement more endurable.

[Armybrat 40850]

2 hours ago, CommonSense said:

and believing one size fits all is inane.

It's not a vaccine.  People still transmit and get ill if they choose to get a shot amd then more shots.

The shots are prophylactics, not vaccines.

Unfortunately your parents didn’t use prophylactics either.

[utee94 15824]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Good to hear.

I’m sure Mrs. Cumsteen’s artistic decorating skills made your confinement more endurable.

He's going to emerge to a wonderland of brand new knick knacks and tchotchkes.

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

He's going to emerge to a wonderland of brand new knick knacks and tchotchkes.

That and/or “now is the perfect time to do that <whatever hideous color> accent wall I saw Chip and Joanne do on that house in Mabank that he’s been pushing back on” was in her head immediately post diagnosis. Once he sees it, he’ll love it she says to herself. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Scheiss Meister 8408]

I breathlessly await the "Shit My Wife Bought While I Had Covid" thread.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Scheiss Meister
Dammit

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Good to hear.

I’m sure Mrs. Cumsteen’s artistic decorating skills made your confinement more endurable.

Keep my wife's name out your fucking mouth. 

 

 

*Not really, I've just been wanting to say that all week in any sort of context. 

[Brisketexan 105151]

Just now, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Keep my wife's name out your fucking mouth. 

 

 

*Not really, I've just been wanting to say that all week in any sort of context. 

Save it for the operator of every flea market and thrift shop within a 200 mile radius of your casa.

[Armybrat 40850]

9 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Keep my wife's name out your fucking mouth. 

 

 

*Not really, I've just been wanting to say that all week in any sort of context. 

Don’t slap me, bitch.

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

5 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Don’t slap me, bitch.

Hell shoot ya dead with a one owner wheel gun that was manufactured when Colorado was still a territory. 

Edited March 31, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

9 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Don’t slap me, bitch.

Full disclosure: I also used the "keep my wife's name out your fucking mouth" line with my kids. I think they were asking what time mom was finished with work. 

[Armybrat 40850]

56 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Hell shoot ya dead with a one owner wheel gun that was manufactured when Colorado was still a territory. 

Nah, my wee little penis extension was made just last year...

[wildcat09 29354]

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Nah, my wee little penis extension was made just last year...

Where's the purse it goes in?

[Armybrat 40850]

13 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Where's the purse it goes in?

 

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

20 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Nah, my wee little penis extension was made just last year...

I like the reliability of a revolver, but want the comfort of high capacity.  So I compromise slightly on the area of concealability.

Edited March 31, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Guest Lobo]

34 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Nah, my wee little penis extension was made just last year...

Not 'Nah', it's 'Naa.'  

Mine's bigger...from Provo, Spain.  Metric system and what-not.  All ball bearings anyways.

[Armybrat 40850]

22 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Not 'Nah', it's 'Naa.'  

Mine's bigger...from Provo, Spain.  Metric system and what-not.  All ball bearings anyways.

I thought the Japanese bombed that ball bearing plant.

[Guest Lobo]

No, no, no.  The Japanese were never in Spain.  You're thinking of the Pearl Bering Harbor in Alaska.  

[BabaYaga 15299]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Nah, my wee little penis extension was made just last year...

Needs a red dot, threading for a can,  and a kydex holster

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Needs a red dot, threading for a can,  and a kydex holster

And belly rail 

[BabaYaga 15299]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And belly rail 

[dcbc 14486]

This became the tiny penis thread really quickly.

 

/I kid.  I kid. 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I like the reliability of a revolver, but want the comfort of high capacity.  So I compromise slightly on the area of concealability.

We're talking armybrat.......so a 14-barrel flintlock is more appropriate.

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Save it for the operator of every flea market and thrift shop within a 200 mile radius of your casa.

Covid crab.  Dad-a-chack, dum-a-chum, and all that shit, the Far West HEB will never be the same.  

[CooterBrown 18014]

I guess COVID is officially over. TacoDeli is getting rid of curbside pickup on Monday.

[utee94 15824]

30 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I guess COVID is officially over. TacoDeli is getting rid of curbside pickup on Monday.

It's too bad, curbside pickup was one of the great positive outcomes of the pandemic.  The less I must interact with people, the better.

 

[Deej 76797]

2 hours ago, utee94 said:

The less I must interact with people, the better.

We know. 

[texasdago 7573]

I keep hearing from clients about big meetings that turn into super spreader events.  

At least these numbers are staying very mellow...

[Pato del Muerto 52503]

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I keep hearing from clients about big meetings that turn into super spreader events.  

At least these numbers are staying very mellow...

Yeah when I go to cdc and look at nationwide graphs, there’s an upward trend in cases despite a downward trend in testing. 
 

but in Austin msa it’s been pretty stable, also with downward testing. 
 

no uptick in hospitalizations that I’ve noticed with either, still hoping that vaccines and previously infected are in high enough numbers that it stays that way. 

[Homercles 10205]

I feel like this fall/winter will tell the tale.  Waning immunity from omicron and boosters, indoor crowds without any mask mandates, and massive travel spike = if there’s not another wave, may be in the clear.  
 

Something tells me we will get yet another surge

[UnivTex34 1763]

Kiddo got sent home from daycare this week, had to close his class due to a positive. He can go back Monday with a negative PCR taken over the weekend, or Thursday without one. Not much work getting done this week remotely.

[After irth 1243]

6 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Something tells me we will get yet another surge

I hate hearing that. My wife just said something similar to me an hour ago. I just rolled my eyes and sweared profusely, but she’s always right about shit like this. 

I’m spending time in Austin for the first time in 3 years and realized that I completely forgot to bring any kind of mask (ya know…just in case it’s needed). 

It’s glorious.

COVID needs to eat a bag of dicks then die. 

[South Austin 52515]

I keep hearing more cases anecdotally, so maybe we're in a bit of a surge.  McCallum has been cranking out more daily notices of positives, and not just 1 or 2, but 4-6.  Someone in my son's fifth grade class tested positive this morning.  A judge who was presiding over a trial I had set for this week tested positive Monday morning so we had to re-set.  This after a quiet couple of months where I didn't hear shit about COVID.

Edited May 13, 2022 by South Austin

[Paper_jam 831]

It looks to me like Travis County new cases are creeping up to (very roughly) 200+/day, where we were more like 100/day a month ago. That's based on the DSHS data in the lower left panel of the site linked below. I hate to see the trend inching up, but I'm certainly not surprised given that so many people, including me, are back in the office, starting to dine out, travel, etc.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

 

 

[dcbc 14486]

Here in unvaxxed land, we saw a slight spike a couple of weeks ago, but as of this week, we are averaging fewer than three cases per day in a county of 250K.  How much of that is due to laziness in testing, I don't know.  But I'm not worried about it.

[bschoolprof 6255]

There’s definitely been an uptick among faculty and grad students.

Yes, we will have waves of covid for some time. I think they will be mild, and people will kinda shrug it off. I think we’ve moved on.

[4th_and_18 687]

There’s definitely been an uptick among faculty and grad students.

Yes, we will have waves of covid for some time. I think they will be mild, and people will kinda shrug it off. I think we’ve moved on.

Maybe, just maybe, when someone tests positive they shouldn’t risk everyone else at lunch and then laugh it off when everyone gets sick. But hey he has tenure so who gives a fuck right?

[Don Johnson 4754]

20 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

Kiddo got sent home from daycare this week, had to close his class due to a positive. He can go back Monday with a negative PCR taken over the weekend, or Thursday without one. Not much work getting done this week remotely.

They can't keep doing this.

[UnivTex34 1763]

4 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

They can't keep doing this.

Just his class, and is the 2-1 year old room. Not vax eligible and not yet wearing masks. Not saying I disagree with you, but I also understand.

 

edit to add, this is only our first shutdown in his class since the original shutdown in March 2020, so we have been very lucky.

Edited May 13, 2022 by UnivTex34

[Samson's Wig 3192]

Everyone in our house has dodged this shit through the entire pandemic, until today.  Son (4th grader) woke up this morning with 102.5 fever, sore throat, head congestion, and a sore neck.   Tested positive for Covid.  He's vaxxed but it's hitting him pretty hard.

His pediatrician had to remind herself how long he should quarantine, etc. as she hadn't dealt with a Covid patient in so long.

 

[CooterBrown 18014]

Took the 9YO in for a test this morning due to symptoms. Came back positive for flu A. Apparently, the flu burned through a bunch of kids in April, went into a lull, and came back with a vengeance this week.