COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BradInATX 9208]

The 53 in Austin isn't a surprise. Adler said that they didn't get through all the Monday cases yesterday. 53 plus yesterday's 22 means 37 or so per day. But either way our 7 day average is almost 40, which is almost 4x what it was three weeks ago.

Also, some of you guys need to figure out whether we're blaming the blacks or the Mexicans on any given day. It can't simultaneously be the protests and the working Hispanic community. The overlap of those two groups is essentially nil.

 

 

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26108]

12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Wait, what?  We're getting G.I. Joe guys again?  I just got my old box of 'em out for my daughter because she wanted to play Star Wars and I don't have those guys anymore, just G.I. Joe but we're coming up with decent replacements.  For some reason, she has chosen Snake Eyes to play Bubba Fett. 

cuz they are the two coolest. Smart kid. 

[atomheartbevo 89799]

12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Wait, what?  We're getting G.I. Joe guys again?  I just got my old box of 'em out for my daughter because she wanted to play Star Wars and I don't have those guys anymore, just G.I. Joe but we're coming up with decent replacements.  For some reason, she has chosen Snake Eyes to play Bubba Fett. 

PM sent.  

[gmr548 16616]

I don't want to jinx it

56 new ATX MSA hospitalizations today.  FUCK EVERYTHING. 

Well what do you have to say for yourself?

[Anastasis 23485]

Not quite a jinx. 

[BradInATX 9208]

58 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here is slice of the demographic chart with the total numbers hospitalized vs the percentages that TCAD shows.

Put it in a table so you can see the numbers easier. Will be curious to see what next week's data looks like. On TCAD chart all of the Races besides Hispanic are labeled "Non-Hispanic" afterwards (I shortened as just a pain to add for table)

 

	Asian	Black	White	Hispanic	Other
3/15/20	0	0	1	1	0
3/22/20	1	2	8	6	1
3/29/20	0	1	7	12	0
4/5/20	0	3	6	13	1
4/12/20	1	2	13	13	2
4/19/20	0	2	6	7	1
4/26/20	0	2	3	9	0
5/3/20	1	3	11	27	0
5/19/20	1	7	12	36	3
5/26/20	0	4	11	35	1
6/1/20	0	10	15	62	1
6/9/20	2	18	40	95	6
6/16/20	1	10	24	70	3

 

Similar data here: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

 

 

To sum it up:

- In Austin, since the protests, black/hispanic hospitalizations are down; white hospitalizations are way up.

- Majority of other cities in the country where there were huge protests are not seeing the same spikes, including the epicenter of it all in Minneapolis.

- The five cities in the country that are seeing the biggest increases right now are all in states that were on the very forefront of re-opening and rolling back facemask restrictions. 

 

Time to bury the political bullshit and stop trying to force a square peg into a round hole with the "but the protests!" nonsense, folks.

Edited June 23, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23485]

In Travis county we were relatively good with mask wearing and social distancing. I think every thing needs to be analyzed regionally as no regions are exactly alike. The time frame of the spike we are seeing in cases as well as the lag to hospitalization are in range to be tied back to mass gatherings corresponding with the protests. There are reports from SC and LA and DC linking transmission to protests. I think it’s political bias that leads one to dismiss the potential impact of mass gathering in the tens of thousands in ATX before the data are all in. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Anastasis

[Skipper 6200]

All the Tues Dallas data is in. I don't have time to do a ton of analysis or a long post but very high level trend isn't great but not as bad as I expected based on Friday's numbers.  Specifically, the hospitalization 'trend' wasn't as sharp as I feared.  Part of that may be that we are finally reducing our reporting lag time (so 'most' of the bad data was actually in by last Friday rather than trailing a week or more) which would be nice.  Or it could be an anomaly.  Guess we'll see.  This Friday's data will be much more telling as it 'should' include positive test percentage through week ending 6/20.  The jump to 23.2 percent for week ending 6/13 was a big red flag.  The aggregate positives continue to be relatively huge but we don't have a sense how much more increased testing is being done.  Friday should give us a better idea.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Skipper

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 I think it’s political bias that leads one to dismiss the potential impact of mass gathering in the tens of thousands in ATX before the data are all in. 

You think that the numbers and facts that I stated above are politically biased? Care to explain why? Do you disagree with any of the following?

- In Austin, hospitalization of white people is up since the protests, and black/hispanic down. 
- There is no consistent trend that protest cities had rises in cases; AKA no correlation. 
- The cities struggling right now (Phoenix, Austin, SA, and two Florida cities) are all in three of the four bleeding edge re-opening states.
- Any of those individually would cast doubt on the "but the protests!" nonsense. All three combined pretty much make it an absurd argument.

Of course the protests contributed some, but the data and the facts are very obviously showing that they're not the primary driver. I'm sorry that it's not turning out how the narrative you had built in your head was steering you, but the ball don't lie.

Edited June 24, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23485]

The only thing that you said that was relevant to Austin was "In Austin, since the protests, black/hispanic hospitalizations are down; white hospitalizations are way up."

 

I don't think that this is politically biased, but I do think that it is an irrelevant red herring. 

[B00M 6463]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm sorry that it's not turning out how the narrative you had built in your head was steering you, but the ball don't lie.

I mean, his outlook is an optimistic one if you're hope is that the economy won't go into total freefall soon.

[F250 28818]

I got this from Comal ISD a few minutes ago. Sounds like the school's are preparing for a remote school year.

Earlier today, the Texas Education Agency (TEA) provided guidance related to the reopening of schools for the 2020-21 school year, specifically with regards to remote instruction. Over the coming weeks we will take time to interpret what we learned and determine what this means for us from an operational standpoint.

What we do know is that we have been given the green light to provide instruction via three methods:

In-Person Instruction (previously referred to as face-to-face), which will start on Aug. 25 per our adopted calendar;

Remote Synchronous Instruction, defined as two-way, live virtual instruction between teachers and students; and

Remote Asynchronous Instruction, which may include various forms of digital and online learning such as prerecorded video lessons and pre-assigned work.

We are currently working on the technological structures related to remote learning as well as professional development for our teachers.

Also addressed in today’s guidance was the issue of attendance. Unlike this past spring when the TEA loosened its rules on daily attendance, the TEA has now provided specific guidelines about student attendance when receiving either synchronous or asynchronous instruction in 2020-21. This means that regardless of which format you choose, daily attendance will be taken and truancy policies will be in effect.

While we were hoping to learn about the health guidelines for in-person instruction, those are still being developed by the TEA and will be shared with us soon. Our current expectation is to come back to you in July with detailed information about what each of the three methods of instruction will look like from a practical point of view.

Please know that we are committed to providing information to you as early as possible so you do not have to turn to other sources such as social media chat sites or even local media. Until then, be patient with us as we continue to prepare for the 2020-21 school year, and please stay safe as you continue to enjoy your summer break.

Thank you for your continued support.

 

Andrew Kim
Superintendent, Comal ISD

 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

The only thing that you said that was relevant to Austin was "In Austin, since the protests, black/hispanic hospitalizations are down; white hospitalizations are way up."

 

I don't think that this is politically biased, but I do think that it is an irrelevant red herring. 

Austin is part of a larger data set that continues to show zero correlation between cities with large protests and cities with rising Covid cases. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, B00M said:

I mean, his outlook is an optimistic one if you're hope is that the economy won't go into total freefall soon.

Let's all be hopeful that the reinstatement of mask guidelines will help. 

[Anastasis 23485]

God damn it Texas. 

 

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/02/27/texas-police-say-local-meth-is-contaminated-with-coronavirus-offer-test-it/

JOHNSON CITY, Texas (Gray News) – Police in central Texas say they have reason to believe methamphetamine in Blanco County may be contaminated with the coronavirus and should be checked.

The offer comes in a public service announcement posted by the Johnson City Police Department to Facebook.

“If you have meth with you, please get it tested prior to use,” the post says, offering addresses where people can take their drugs for testing.

“If you prefer to keep your meth in the privacy of your own home you may contact Blanco County Dispatch … and have an officer come to your house to test your meth for contamination."

 

[BradInATX 9208]

How the hell does Covid live in meth? This is worse than meth gators.

[BradInATX 9208]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

There are reports from SC and LA and DC linking transmission to protests.

Also, I meant to ask, can you source this? I saw the LA thing, but as far as I can tell that was purely speculation and not from any sort of contact tracing, etc.

[hornian 5223]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

How the hell does Covid live in meth? This is worse than meth gators.

Pretty sure that is just the cops being lazy. 

[Anastasis 23485]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Also, I meant to ask, can you source this? I saw the LA thing, but as far as I can tell that was purely speculation and not from any sort of contact tracing, etc.

WApo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/activists-halt-street-protests-in-south-carolina-as-some-demonstrators-become-infected/2020/06/22/cf8afa6a-b4c2-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/06/09/dc-guard-members-test-positive-for-covid-after-protests/

 

[Anastasis 23485]

The LA one was an "extremely likely" from their public health director.  Again, I find it curious that APH has not updated on their tracing findings in the last 13 days. 

[GRHorn 105]

38 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

You think that the numbers and facts that I stated above are politically biased? Care to explain why? Do you disagree with any of the following?

- In Austin, hospitalization of white people is up since the protests, and black/hispanic down. 
- There is no consistent trend that protest cities had rises in cases; AKA no correlation. 
- The cities struggling right now (Phoenix, Austin, SA, and two Florida cities) are all in three of the four bleeding edge re-opening states.
- Any of those individually would cast doubt on the "but the protests!" nonsense. All three combined pretty much make it an absurd argument.

Of course the protests contributed some, but the data and the facts are very obviously showing that they're not the primary driver. I'm sorry that it's not turning out how the narrative you had built in your head was steering you, but the ball don't lie.

What was the racial makeup of protestors in Austin? Young white people certainly took part. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, GRHorn said:

What was the racial makeup of protestors in Austin? Young white people certainly took part. 

Are you going to put forward a theory that only the white protestors caught it and it sorta avoided the black folks in attendance?

 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

What she described was full now, not soon.

 

Not Austin, but in San Antonio I work in one  hospital system that has plan in place for almost double the current number of Covid hospitalizations. 
 

On the plus side, both the gas station and my HEB had mask usage over 80% today. I think people are getting the picture. 

[BradInATX 9208]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

WApo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/activists-halt-street-protests-in-south-carolina-as-some-demonstrators-become-infected/2020/06/22/cf8afa6a-b4c2-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/06/09/dc-guard-members-test-positive-for-covid-after-protests/

 

First link is 13 cases. Cases. Not hospitalizations.

Second link is "She said the Guard will not release the exact total, but U.S. officials said they believe it is not a large number, at least so far."

Don't bring that weak stuff. Of course the protests would create some cases. We're talking about the protests being a primary driver. 13 cases is roughly 1% of new cases for a single day in South Carolina. That's statistical noise. The second article has absolutely no fact-backing or objective proof behind it. Just some lady in leadership saying "some of the guardsmen there caught it but I'm not telling you how many or anything else". For all we know it's as credible as the cops who got poisioned in NYC.

Edited June 24, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23485]

Ok. Let’s let the tracing mature. I’m pointing you to early reports that you asked for. 

[justhookit 4191]

43 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Let's all be hopeful that the reinstatement of mask guidelines will help. 

That, and we need to completely close down the bars. Like yesterday.

[SHOOTER12 8828]

35 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

God damn it Texas. 

 

https://www.wbtv.com/2020/02/27/texas-police-say-local-meth-is-contaminated-with-coronavirus-offer-test-it/

JOHNSON CITY, Texas (Gray News) – Police in central Texas say they have reason to believe methamphetamine in Blanco County may be contaminated with the coronavirus and should be checked.

The offer comes in a public service announcement posted by the Johnson City Police Department to Facebook.

“If you have meth with you, please get it tested prior to use,” the post says, offering addresses where people can take their drugs for testing.

“If you prefer to keep your meth in the privacy of your own home you may contact Blanco County Dispatch … and have an officer come to your house to test your meth for contamination."

 

I'm trying to remember how many thousands got busted in the '70's when law enforcement offered for free to test marijuana for the horrifically deadly paraquat contamination.

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Ok. Let’s let the tracing mature. I’m pointing you to early reports that you asked for. 

Fair enough. 

I did see the LA report where the LAPH lady said she suspected some correlation to the protests. That's another crazy thing about it is the whole super-spreader thing. I suspect we could have a city here or there where we had one super-spreader at a protest where there wasn't much wind and that one particular city saw a spike due to the protests (even if that's not really a widespread national trend). 

This whole thing just once again reinforces my frustration with the lack of information collection and distribution to the public.

[justhookit 4191]

Nueces was really late reporting tonight for some reason. 71 new cases so it’s the 2nd highest total we’ve had. Hospitalizations steady. Positive rate still climbing fast.  The 20-40 age group is going to fuck this up for all of us. We are going to see some absolutely huge new case numbers later this week and weekend.

[Dahobbs 17681]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here is slice of the demographic chart with the total numbers hospitalized vs the percentages that TCAD shows.

Put it in a table so you can see the numbers easier. Will be curious to see what next week's data looks like. On TCAD chart all of the Races besides Hispanic are labeled "Non-Hispanic" afterwards (I shortened as just a pain to add for table)

 

	Asian	Black	White	Hispanic	Other
3/15/20	0	0	1	1	0
3/22/20	1	2	8	6	1
3/29/20	0	1	7	12	0
4/5/20	0	3	6	13	1
4/12/20	1	2	13	13	2
4/19/20	0	2	6	7	1
4/26/20	0	2	3	9	0
5/3/20	1	3	11	27	0
5/19/20	1	7	12	36	3
5/26/20	0	4	11	35	1
6/1/20	0	10	15	62	1
6/9/20	2	18	40	95	6
6/16/20	1	10	24	70	3

Ah, so that is the other explanation for weird data in that chart. The hospitalization numbers early on were really small, which led to the dramatic changes in percentages. That makes sense. Still, since Hispanics made up a higher percentage of hospitalized overall, I do wonder whether that is generally true to Austin area hospitalizations or is a trend specific to Covid-19. Mexico has definitely blown up recently, so travel to/from there could somewhat explain it if it weren't for the fact that the ethnic disparity existed back in March and April before Mexico became a hot spot.  

[scottsins 1969]

God damn it Texas. 
 
https://www.wbtv.com/2020/02/27/texas-police-say-local-meth-is-contaminated-with-coronavirus-offer-test-it/
JOHNSON CITY, Texas (Gray News) – Police in central Texas say they have reason to believe methamphetamine in Blanco County may be contaminated with the coronavirus and should be checked.
The offer comes in a public service announcement posted by the Johnson City Police Department to Facebook.
“If you have meth with you, please get it tested prior to use,” the post says, offering addresses where people can take their drugs for testing.
“If you prefer to keep your meth in the privacy of your own home you may contact Blanco County Dispatch … and have an officer come to your house to test your meth for contamination."
 

Just to make sure...everyone needs to realize that the article is from February.

[Anastasis 23485]

48 minutes ago, scottsins said:

 

Just to make sure...everyone needs to realize that the article is from February.

 

Lol. I didn’t catch that. That’s even better. 

[NorthLoop 14248]

New Braunfels mandating masks starting Monday. We'll see how well that goes over with the mouth breathers around here. 

[gmr548 16616]

God damn it Texas. 
 
https://www.wbtv.com/2020/02/27/texas-police-say-local-meth-is-contaminated-with-coronavirus-offer-test-it/
JOHNSON CITY, Texas (Gray News) – Police in central Texas say they have reason to believe methamphetamine in Blanco County may be contaminated with the coronavirus and should be checked.
The offer comes in a public service announcement posted by the Johnson City Police Department to Facebook.
“If you have meth with you, please get it tested prior to use,” the post says, offering addresses where people can take their drugs for testing.
“If you prefer to keep your meth in the privacy of your own home you may contact Blanco County Dispatch … and have an officer come to your house to test your meth for contamination."
 

Oklahoma just shit itself a little. They fucked

[drt 640]

Makes no sense to wait that long. 

[atomheartbevo 89799]

 

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[troph 24906]

Lake Travis Football... https://www.statesman.com/sports/20200623/summer-workouts-on-hold-at-lake-travis-after-positive-tests?utm_source=SND&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=acn&fbclid=IwAR1kUrnquDr8qMPNWrgJ9-H-6X80WdV-QSUnR4op_s5LVSqi5EDUiObYeFk

[Anastasis 23485]

Football ain't happening in 2020. 

[brakeman 28423]

5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

The Texas med center (Houston area) has been posting lots of data on their hospitalizations, ICU occupancy, etc that we've all probably seen.  Here's a not great looking trend:

They also give you a snapshot in time at what total (covid and non-covid) ICU occupancy looks like:

 

However, one thing they don't indicate (or at least I couldn't find) was what total ICU occupancy has looked like over time.  So I went to the wayback machine and pulled snapshots  of the 2nd picture at 5/5, 5/13, 5/31, 6/7, and 6/19 (the only dates I could find).  Here's the total occupancy on those dates:

5/5: 1056

5/13: 1070

5/31: 1152

6/7: 1268

6/19: 1235

6/22: 1207

Interestingly, despite covid patients increasing from about 15% of ICU patients around 6/7 to about 25% now, the total number of people in the ICU has actually fallen by about 60 patients.   What does this all mean?  I have no idea.  An artifact of more testing/classification of sick people as covid cases? Or, we are pushing out non-covid pateints to accommodate more covid patients? Or, the Russians?  

hockey stick. i'm sorry my texas family and friends.

[troph 24906]

I don’t care about that, I care about it being in our backyard.

[safe sex 11754]

My post was referencing the state of my primary hospital's ICUs as of Monday morning when I left my shift. Couldn't tell you how it is now (people come and go, obv) and I won't be back until later this week. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

4 hours ago, trauma babe said:

My post was referencing the state of my primary hospital's ICUs as of Monday morning when I left my shift. Couldn't tell you how it is now (people come and go, obv) and I won't be back until later this week. 

Will you be returning tanned, rested and ready?

Edited June 24, 2020 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[Captain Ron 12921]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Football ain't happening in 2020. 

Not with the way this is being handled in a lot of places. Not high school, not college, not the NFL.

In states that shutdown completely, it took a month to finally see things start to curve back down. And another month to get back to manageable levels. Again with total shutdown.

 So Texas is looking at best this being back down to manageable in early September. And that’s if quick and drastic action takes place. There is no timetable that a football season is feasible with that.

And honestly, the way things are right now, does football really matter?

[Bartles 769]

The northeast didn't ever shut down completely. It was actually pretty similar rules to the south until around 4-6 weeks ago. And even then the main difference has been when states started allowing indoor social activities like bars/restaurants/churches. Oh and the NE adopted face masks earlier and continues to wear them today.

As for football - and all sports, especially pro - there is enough money to keep players/staff out of harm's way to have a season. They have money for frequent testing and to isolate positive cases. It can be done even if the numbers in the community are running high. College sports will be tougher for reasons obvious to any male who has set foot on campus.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

10 hours ago, justhookit said:

Nueces was really late reporting tonight for some reason. 71 new cases so it’s the 2nd highest total we’ve had. Hospitalizations steady. Positive rate still climbing fast.  The 20-40 age group is going to fuck this up for all of us. We are going to see some absolutely huge new case numbers later this week and weekend.

The under 20 crowd should also be looked at for horrible social distancing. I live near a school that hosts kids sports over the weekends. They appeared to have a baseball tourney and a basketball tourney/camp running this past weekend. Very few masks and no social distancing. Perhaps on average, kids don’t get sick from covid, but I haven’t read they can’t transmit it.

[GreenspointTexas 9664]

Most hospitals in Houston arent doing surgeries that require or possibly will require ICU stay right now

 

thats most likely why ICU usage is not overwhelmed just yet

[B00M 6463]

45 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The under 20 crowd should also be looked at for horrible social distancing. I live near a school that hosts kids sports over the weekends. They appeared to have a baseball tourney and a basketball tourney/camp running this past weekend. Very few masks and no social distancing. Perhaps on average, kids don’t get sick from covid, but I haven’t read they can’t transmit it.

 

This is your example of under 20 misbehaving? Not the high school keg parties, but team sports? And baseball is social distancing nearly by definition. MLB is blowing the opportunity of a lifetime not being the only sport going right now. Anyway, you blame the children in youth sports instead of the parents and organizers? 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

11 minutes ago, B00M said:

 

This is your example of under 20 misbehaving? Not the high school keg parties, but team sports? And baseball is social distancing nearly by definition. MLB is blowing the opportunity of a lifetime not being the only sport going right now. Anyway, you blame the children in youth sports instead of the parents and organizers? 

 

By definition kids behavior is the blame of the parents. Didn’t realize I had to spell that out. And no I don’t think kids in the outfield are spreading Covid to each other. But kids in a dugout and all of the activities around this can. And packed basketball camps and tourneys shouldn’t be out there at all.

sorry I hit a nerve with your kid playing little league. 

[whithou 149]

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Most hospitals in Houston arent doing surgeries that require or possibly will require ICU stay right now

 

thats most likely why ICU usage is not overwhelmed just yet

Long time lurker but decided to bite the bullet and register since I can offer some perspective on this.  I'm an ICU RN in Houston and the ICUs at my hospital are definitely overwhelmed. Elective procedures had started back up at my hospital that required ICU admission afterwards but I have a feeling that will come to a halt now with us having no empty beds. My ICU became a COVID overflow unit in March but we are now at capacity with the majority of our patients with COVID and intubated. The main ICU where COVID patients go has been full for awhile now but they have been able to always downgrade a patient just in time for them to take another sick one. That is not the case anymore as the intubated COVID patients are not getting better and stay for several weeks. The last shift I worked they had intubated patients just chilling in the EC because we were out of beds. Texas Children's and MD Anderson are going to start taking patients from at capacity hospitals since certain hospitals are out of space. 

[Texaus 377]

Long time lurker but decided to bite the bullet and register since I can offer some perspective on this.  I'm an ICU RN in Houston and the ICUs at my hospital are definitely overwhelmed. Elective procedures had started back up at my hospital that required ICU admission afterwards but I have a feeling that will come to a halt now with us having no empty beds. My ICU became a COVID overflow unit in March but we are now at capacity with the majority of our patients with COVID and intubated. The main ICU where COVID patients go has been full for awhile now but they have been able to always downgrade a patient just in time for them to take another sick one. That is not the case anymore as the intubated COVID patients are not getting better and stay for several weeks. The last shift I worked they had intubated patients just chilling in the EC because we were out of beds. Texas Children's and MD Anderson are going to start taking patients from at capacity hospitals since certain hospitals are out of space. 

Thanks for sharing.