COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[kevwun 15647]

You aren't in Texas.  We've had 10% of the total US cases and most of those were just in the last 3 months.

Edited September 3, 2020 by kevwun

[atomheartbevo 89430]

30 minutes ago, smoky said:

Agree with Brad that every metric is looking great currently.  We need to use that momentum as advertising that what everyone has been doing over the past month is working and to keep it up.  

Carrots need to be dangled in front of people to keep them moving in the right direction.  We need to be marketing this situation as "You want that?  Keep doing this."

This is where we need a full-court press from all levels of government, from city to county to state, where all of the leaders are unified and saying "hey guys, we are getting this under control, if you keep wearing masks, keep your distance when you can, wash your hands, we can do sports again, we can open up more, we can get the kids out of the house" and it needs to be shouted from the rooftops.

But we're Texas, so we're going to shoot ourselves in the dick.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

You aren't in Texas.  We've had 10% of the total US cases and most of those were just in the last 3 months.

That’s true, it’s definitely hit Texas more than my neck of the woods.

[Sawbonz 27429]

16 hours ago, dcar00 said:

japan's numbers are suspect.  but South Korea did an amazing job.  their sars experience and contact tracing were IMO the biggest reason.  being able to quarantine quickly is a huge difference maker.

Interestingly, south Korea is seeing a case spike, not sure why

Almost every published epidemiological study of SARS and MERS finds mask usage one of if not the main determinant of containment. But I’m sure for COVID-19 its impact is trivial

[elguapo 4583]

17 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not anti mask.  I'm saying it doesn't help as much as people like to think.  of course this is my opinion.

I'm not anti-mask! I just don't think they really help that much! Who cares what doctors and scientists say I'm entitled to my opinion or something!

[atomheartbevo 89430]

UT only reported 42 new cases yesterday.   

[BrazilHorn 6576]

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

UT only reported 42 new cases yesterday.   

Is that new in total or cumulative? Reason I ask is Travis county had 57 yesterday in total so I cannot imagine UT made up 42 of them. (also Travis reported only 27 cases from people between 10-29 years of age)

Unless cases are somehow being counted back in the student's home county/city etc

-edit (It is Cumulative)

Edited September 3, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[dcar00 14035]

UT is going to start to pop.  

[kevwun 15647]

I know with deaths, the County can be a crap shoot because of nursing homes, hospitals and prisons.  I don't know if cases have the same issue.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here is view of UT's contribution to total Covid Cases for Travis County. I will keep tracking this as it will be interesting to see going forward. I used the count of UT & Travis Co for the time period UT is tracking which barring one weird rolling 14 day period has been a rolling 7 day count. Then I simply divide UT's Positive Cases into Travis County's.

Date	UT Pos.	Travis Pos	UT % TC
7-Jun	3	35	8.57%
14-Jun	14	848	1.65%
21-Jun	3	1665	0.18%
28-Jun	0	2434	0.00%
5-Jul	1	3218	0.03%
19-Jul	0	5972	0.00%
26-Jul	0	1834	0.00%
2-Aug	0	1734	0.00%
9-Aug	0	1510	0.00%
16-Aug	0	1420	0.00%
23-Aug	1	1592	0.06%
30-Aug	18	698	2.58%

[bschoolprof 6232]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Is that new in total or cumulative? Reason I ask is Travis county had 57 yesterday in total so I cannot imagine UT made up 42 of them. (also Travis reported only 27 cases from people between 10-29 years of age)

Unless cases are somehow being counted back in the student's home county/city etc

-edit (It is Cumulative)

per the dash board, ut reported 42 cases on 9/2 (click on the graph in the top left).  I don't think that is a cumulative number.  They are testing like mofos though.  I highly doubt this has been included in any of the travis county data yet.  That stuff is often on a lag.

[XYZ 2154]

27 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

per the dash board, ut reported 42 cases on 9/2 (click on the graph in the top left).  I don't think that is a cumulative number.  They are testing like mofos though.  I highly doubt this has been included in any of the travis county data yet.  That stuff is often on a lag.

In other words, it’s a clusterfuck.

[atomheartbevo 89430]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Is that new in total or cumulative? Reason I ask is Travis county had 57 yesterday in total so I cannot imagine UT made up 42 of them. (also Travis reported only 27 cases from people between 10-29 years of age)

Unless cases are somehow being counted back in the student's home county/city etc

Some local/student-to-student transmission, some were the anticipated "they had it at home and brought it here!"  Still, shouldn't impact hospitalization too much unless they spread it to the profs.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/ut-reports-42-positive-covid-19-student-cases-wednesday-up-from-17-the-day-before/

Quote

Also for Wednesday, Travis County reported 59 new COVID-19 cases. On the surface, it appears that 71% of the county’s COVID-19 cases for the day came UT, but that may not be the case. Austin Public Health said while all cases in the county, including those at UT, are included in total case counts, the agency can’t necessarily tell when the UT cases showed up in counts.

Quote

“We cannot be certain exactly what date the positives for UT students would have showed up in the case count,” APH said. The agency also said it couldn’t speak to the breakdown of cases by specific source.

On the UT dashboard, eight cases were reported in students from Aug. 27-28, four on both days, then no cases were reported until Aug. 31.

Quote

University Health Services released a statement on the number of COVID-19 cases Thursday:

“Some of these numbers reflect case increases the university anticipated as students arrived in Austin. The numbers also appear to reflect increased local transmission since the start of classes. This underscores how vital it is for all members of our community to comply with health protocols and with local and state orders on gatherings and social distancing. This is especially critical at this early stage in the semester and heading into the Labor Day weekend, as people make important health decisions about gathering with friends and family. Anyone who has had difficulty being consistent with safe social distancing, masking or other preventive measures should be especially cautious about visiting loved ones or other people vulnerable to the disease over the holiday.”

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Some local/student-to-student transmission, some were the anticipated "they had it at home and brought it here!"  Still, shouldn't impact hospitalization too much unless they spread it to the profs.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/ut-reports-42-positive-covid-19-student-cases-wednesday-up-from-17-the-day-before/

 

UT has a good website that they are publishing their info on, looks like considering they are publishing weekly that it was a batching of cases vs all on one day (but who knows).

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

 

[atomheartbevo 89430]

Anybody else in Austin get a robocall from the city asking them not to party this weekend and wrap your peckers if you do*?

*Last part may not have happened, I deleted the voicemail 10-15 seconds in.

[atomheartbevo 89430]

10 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

UT has a good website that they are publishing their info on, looks like considering they are publishing weekly that it was a batching of cases vs all on one day (but who knows).

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

Yeah, and they have free testing on campus, so numbers will probably shoot way up in the next week as more students get nagged by their parents to get tested.

[Anastasis 23395]

104 new fucking cases today.

Sure send all your dumb fuck 20 year old college kids to Austin to human centipede beer bong rips down each others asses while my kindergartener has to fucking zoom into his classes from the game room. Why the fuck not. 

 

[utee94 15745]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

104 new fucking cases today.

Sure send all your dumb fuck 20 year old college kids to Austin to human centipede beer bong rips down each others asses while my kindergartener has to fucking zoom into his classes from the game room. Why the fuck not. 

 

Sorry for partying.

 

[ABSR 5289]

10 hours ago, kevwun said:

You aren't in Texas.  We've had 10% of the total US cases and most of those were just in the last 3 months.

Everything is bigger in Texas!

[Anastasis 23395]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Sorry for partying.

oh good, new admissions also moving in the wrong direction @ 28. Bodes well for college football. LOL AISD. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89430]

[Trey3216 15325]

19 hours ago, kevwun said:

People will latch on to anything that makes the numbers seem better, not matter how silly it is.

And a lot of others will shift goalposts to make things seem worse in order to achieve a certain goal or narrative.  See Gavin Newsom. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

While increase in new cases is not good news, I don’t think we should be concerned until we see an increasing trend in hospitalizations 

[South Austin 52144]

Well fuck me, I'm going to be pallbearer at a funeral tomorrow in deep East Texas.  Aside from the fact that funerals are one of the last places you should be during a pandemic, it comes right before my son starts fourth grade in AISD with a pod of three other boys.  I've already told the family that I'm going to be extra cautious -- mask on at all times, no hugging or hand shakes, hand sanitizer, keeping my distance -- and asked that they don't confuse the need to be safe with me being unfriendly or stand-offish.  At least they're making it a private, family-only (and in East Texas, that means about 30-40 people), outdoor gravesite service.   

Oh, and for extra-good measure, it's the funeral for my ex-wife's grandmother, who died at 103.  She was actually more like a grandmother to me than my actual blood grandparents.  She loved me so much that the family never told her about the divorce because they thought it would kill her.  When she was going downhill a few weeks ago I called her to say my good-bye, and she was talking as if I was still married for to her granddaughter, so I just went along with the lie.  That fucking sucked.  I might have leaned against attending the funeral, but her son -- my former father-in-law -- said she specifically said before she died that she wanted me to be a pallbearer.

Fuck you, COVID.

[Guest Lobo]

Sorry to hear that, man.  If it's any consolation...I think you did the right thing in keeping up the facade with her.  Nothing to be gained by breaking the heart of a 103 year old woman who apparently loved you like a grandson.  When you lift the casket (with your mask on!) this weekend, know you were also lifting a burden off of her by keeping her at peace at the end.  You'll carry a little bit of guilt with you for awhile, but in the end---during some random sunrise a few months from now---you'll feel her smiling at you from behind the star;  letting you know..."It's cool...I get it.  Thank you, move on son..."  

Hey, how's your mom taking this?  I could check in on her, if you like  

[Hate 20103]

What Lobo said...and grief is nature’s best aphrodisiac. Maybe you can make the sex with one of you ex-wife’s cousins or something .

[South Austin 52144]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

What Lobo said...and grief is nature’s best aphrodisiac. Maybe you can make the sex with one of you ex-wife’s cousins or something .

It's East Texas.  They're all punching well above my weight class.

[VolenteHawk 495]

[BrazilHorn 6576]

The 104 while higher than the handful of prior days is still well below the 200-300 range of daily cases that Travis Co was in early August. One more day <200 and I plan on moving the "buoyancy" point for cases down to the 100-200 range.

The age group data is offline as someone at TCAD is pointing the 50-59 bucket to just females vs all. Once that remedied I will post. Encouraging thing (from potential deaths perspective) is only 6 of the 104 cases were from 60 years old & higher.

[Texas Jeff 1932]

I would expect UT to have a COVID curve similar to almost all of the other COVID curves out there.  They brought together a mix of people who were sitting at home for most of the late spring/summer and now they are all living pretty close together.  The UT campus is in the fourth most dense zip code in Texas.  There is going to be an outbreak.

It should have a sharp rise over maybe 4-6 weeks and then a peak and then tail off over maybe 8-12 weeks.  If you look around the world, this seems to be the experience of almost every population out there.  I would be surprised if UT is any different.  If they have a small, contained outbreak with good isolation and contract tracing we should applaud them for being competent.

Hopefully they don't decide to send everyone home to give it to Mom, Dad and the rest of their hometown.

[Anastasis 23395]

44 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Hopefully they don't decide to send everyone home to give it to Mom, Dad and the rest of their hometown.

Happy Thanksgiving mom!

[South Austin 52144]

I'm actually surprised we haven't had a few cases from the football team at this point.  [ducks]

[Hefeweizen 5307]

7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'm actually surprised we haven't had a few cases from the football team at this point.  [ducks]

When have they been good at catching anything?

[Lerka Lerka 1086]

Devin Duvernay would like a word with you. 

[South Austin 52144]

Yeah, good for the quick laugh, but not sure Devin and the other receivers have really been the problem with Herman's teams.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

3 hours ago, South Austin said:

Yeah, good for the quick laugh, but not sure Devin and the other receivers have really been the problem with Herman's teams.

I'm here for the easy low hanging fruit.

[After irth 1243]

10 hours ago, South Austin said:

Well fuck me, I'm going to be pallbearer at a funeral tomorrow in deep East Texas.  Aside from the fact that funerals are one of the last places you should be during a pandemic, it comes right before my son starts fourth grade in AISD with a pod of three other boys.  I've already told the family that I'm going to be extra cautious -- mask on at all times, no hugging or hand shakes, hand sanitizer, keeping my distance -- and asked that they don't confuse the need to be safe with me being unfriendly or stand-offish.  At least they're making it a private, family-only (and in East Texas, that means about 30-40 people), outdoor gravesite service.   

Oh, and for extra-good measure, it's the funeral for my ex-wife's grandmother, who died at 103.  She was actually more like a grandmother to me than my actual blood grandparents.  She loved me so much that the family never told her about the divorce because they thought it would kill her.  When she was going downhill a few weeks ago I called her to say my good-bye, and she was talking as if I was still married for to her granddaughter, so I just went along with the lie.  That fucking sucked.  I might have leaned against attending the funeral, but her son -- my former father-in-law -- said she specifically said before she died that she wanted me to be a pallbearer.

Fuck you, COVID.

Not exactly sure where you might be, but bar tab is on me if you're in the area and need a friendly face.  Just sayin'.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

ok so I am back-ending into the 50-59 cohort as Travis county still has their data table for that cohort pointed to just female positive CV19 cases. Will have the daily age compare back tomorrow.

Another good day for Travis County in that we have now had 14 days in a row of <200 cases/day.(128)  We had seen a "buoyancy" point where we could count on between 200-300 cases a day, it is now squarely in the 100-200 a day range and the low end of that range to boot.

So the official (which is totally unofficial) BrazilHorn CV19 Daily Buoyancy range for Travis County is now moved from 200-300 to 100-200 cases a day. (after 14 days of being <200/day)

For those of you who care about AISD playing sports this fall, I am not saying give up hope as you never know but yesterday's hospital admits were 21 and the rolling 7 day average for hospital admits is 18.71. It needs to be <10 for a sustained (at least 2-3 weeks for AISD to play fall sports etc)

[atomheartbevo 89430]

We went to the neighorhood park this morning, because I don't get enough humidity in my life, and plenty of folks seemed to have ditched masks and all pretenses of social distancing.   Well, not the olds, the olds out walking around had their masks.

Anyways, I'd like to believe this was just a Labor Day weekend thing and these were all folks who already had it and were somewhat immune to catching it again, and they normally don't do this kind of stuff, but yeah, it's people I recognize from the neighborhood.

Frustrating, because they all know better, and they are not helping us keep it down to the point where we can do sports, etc. again.

[atomheartbevo 89430]

There was a big parade on Lake Travis, and thousands showed up to watch.

I only see one person with a face mask/shield (somebody circled her), but supposedly there is another.  I'm not good at Finding Waldo though.  Which is weird, because I know I could spot a nipple back in the days when I used to watch scrambled Cinemax at a friend's house.

This is the kind of shit that is going to fuck us over, and fuck our numbers up, and you can bet some in this photo will be bitching when the schools shut down again or we don't get to do sports or whatever.

Edited September 5, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Anastasis 23395]

77 new cases, but 22 new admits. AISD ain't playing sports this semester. 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

Westlake HS already had 3 positives (supposedly, at least 2 are football players) and kids aren't back yet.  School year is going great!

[Hanrahan 1306]

I am impressed with my kid’s elementary school. Masks on all day including recess. Lunch in the classroom socially distanced, including putting kids in the hallway. I actually have some hope this will work.

[atomheartbevo 89430]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

77 new cases, but 22 new admits. AISD ain't playing sports this semester. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Travis Co reporting site completely borked. They are pointing to single gender vs total in the mortality page, so I cannot update deaths etc accurately and plot mortality rate. They also still have cases for 50-59 pointing to just female but I can back in to that by subtracting the total case amount vs that one hole. Just frustrating.

I have 81 cases for yesterday, which in big scheme of things is a solid number. Big volume in the 10-19 range compared to their regular contribution. Could be freshman at UT and/or back to school testing happening. Still small overall number but it is a large jump up % wise.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/5 vs 9/4	1	1	24	23	7	8	9	4	2	2	81
% of Daily Change	1.23%	1.23%	29.63%	28.40%	8.64%	9.88%	11.11%	4.94%	2.47%	2.47%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	8.28%	26.71%	21.41%	16.35%	11.54%	6.58%	3.26%	2.41%	26,923

[Neonmoon 38127]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There was a big parade on Lake Travis, and thousands showed up to watch.

I only see one person with a face mask/shield (somebody circled her), but supposedly there is another.  I'm not good at Finding Waldo though.  Which is weird, because I know I could spot a nipple back in the days when I used to watch scrambled Cinemax at a friend's house.

This is the kind of shit that is going to fuck us over, and fuck our numbers up, and you can bet some in this photo will be bitching when the schools shut down again or we don't get to do sports or whatever.

Guy next to 4th vertical pole is wearing a camo bandanna as a mask. I loved Where’s Waldo 

Impressively most of these people are in the high risk category ie olds

[Guest Lobo]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There was a big parade on Lake Travis, and thousands showed up to watch.

I only see one person with a face mask/shield (somebody circled her), but supposedly there is another.  I'm not good at Finding Waldo though.  Which is weird, because I know I could spot a nipple back in the days when I used to watch scrambled Cinemax at a friend's house.

This is the kind of shit that is going to fuck us over, and fuck our numbers up, and you can bet some in this photo will be bitching when the schools shut down again or we don't get to do sports or whatever.

This reminds of the John Mulaney bit about seeing old photographs from the turn of the last century, and realizing the dumb shit people used to think up to do to just pass the time. 

(Calling up his friend), "Hey, tomorrow...do you want to get dressed up and go to the docks to wave at boats as they disappear over the horizon?  (pauses) No, I don't know anybody on the boats...it's just something to do from 1-4pm." 

I love boating, but how sad is your life that you didn't even get on a boat for a boat parade?  You watched longingly from a half mile away, and what the fuck---it's Saturday on Lake Travis and nobody is drinking?  At least if they were drunk they'd have an excuse for being packed in like that.  And considering maybe 25% of the people in that photo are not overweight, that's probably not a good play considering Covid-19 likes the chubby olds.  Good news for these people are there are now four free boats for use in the next parade if they work together to pull them off the lake bottom.  At least these people are outdoors, but not really.  I mean it's covered on top, it opens back into the packed restaurant, they're way too many people per square foot, and that balcony is only maybe 5' deep.  That ain't a good recipe for staying safe.  

I hope somebody has a photo of their facial expressions when the boats started sinking one another.  I would imagine it's like that famous Surly meme where the two women gasp in horror, and the tall dude behind them slowly reveals a massive grin.  

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

15 minutes ago, Lobo said:

This reminds of the John Mulaney bit about seeing old photographs from the turn of the last century, and realizing the dumb shit people used to think up to do to just pass the time. 

(Calling up his friend), "Hey, tomorrow...do you want to get dressed up and go to the docks to wave at boats as they disappear over the horizon?  (pauses) No, I don't know anybody on the boats...it's just something to do from 1-4pm." 

I love boating, but how sad is your life that you didn't even get on a boat for a boat parade?  You watched longingly from a half mile away, and what the fuck---it's Saturday on Lake Travis and nobody is drinking?  At least if they were drunk they'd have an excuse for being packed in like that.  And considering maybe 25% of the people in that photo are not overweight, that's probably not a good play considering Covid-19 likes the chubby olds.  Good news for these people are there are now four free boats for use in the next parade if they work together to pull them off the lake bottom.  At least these people are outdoors, but not really.  I mean it's covered on top, it opens back into the packed restaurant, they're way too many people per square foot, and that balcony is only maybe 5' deep.  That ain't a good recipe for staying safe.  

I hope somebody has a photo of their facial expressions when the boats started sinking one another.  I would imagine it's like that famous Surly meme where the two women gasp in horror, and the tall dude behind them slowly reveals a massive grin.  

 

We will see impact from this a couple of weeks from now if 50 year old + cases sky rocket

[Guest Lobo]

Oh, I don't seriously think there's gonna be marked county-wide rise because of this one incident.  I think we'll continue to see the macro spikes in 18-29, and then also in 65+.  I gotta find the article, or you've probably seen it, nearly 30% of households where both parents/or the one parent who lives with the kids have had to go back to work full-time, or part-time as kids are doing remote learning from home......so that has to be in the tens of millions of households.  30% of those homes, and probably rising as our frustration levels with the volatility of remote learning schedules and efficacy...have a grandparent(s) of the child now either living there or (if they are within an hour's drive) coming over the balance of the school day while the 1 or 2 parents are at work.  So that's millions of 50+ folks, and still millions of over 65+ folks.  They've gone from seeing the grandkids once a month, to now seeing them for 7 hours a day/5 days a week/for months on end.  I think you'll see, unfortunately, a lot of transmission from those school aged kids who are still doing learning pods/play with neighbors/organized sports and bring it back into the house and infect Grandma and/or Grandpa because they'll just be around each for so long indoors.  

I don't fault the families, if my mom could get on a plane right now, she'd come help out my daughters in a heartbeat but she'd probably pickup Covid-19 with her comorbidities.  They're trying to watch over their kids while they're out and earn a living while they still have a job.  But it's adding up to millions of older folks spending way more time than they used to with kids who may be fine with the virus, but who will transfer it to this new school/living dynamic to older folks.  Could be a recipe for disaster, particularly as we head into viral transmission season. 

I think of my mom around my kids.  She's always, long before pandemic---made them wash hands, cough into sleeve/kleenex, stay home if not feeling well, not touch things at other people's homes or in public, etc.  All those good manners.  However, if after a meal...my kids have left something on their plates...my mother will sweep it into her mouth on the way to the sink like it was dessert.  So yeah, that's how she'd get coronavirus.  

Anyway, the new and modified school year is gonna prevent a lot of transmission at the actual school, but it's also gonna have some unintended consequences at home with Gam-Gam and Paw-Paw.