COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Trey3216 15325]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

This reminds of the John Mulaney bit about seeing old photographs from the turn of the last century, and realizing the dumb shit people used to think up to do to just pass the time. 

(Calling up his friend), "Hey, tomorrow...do you want to get dressed up and go to the docks to wave at boats as they disappear over the horizon?  (pauses) No, I don't know anybody on the boats...it's just something to do from 1-4pm." 

I love boating, but how sad is your life that you didn't even get on a boat for a boat parade?  You watched longingly from a half mile away, and what the fuck---it's Saturday on Lake Travis and nobody is drinking?  At least if they were drunk they'd have an excuse for being packed in like that.  And considering maybe 25% of the people in that photo are not overweight, that's probably not a good play considering Covid-19 likes the chubby olds.  Good news for these people are there are now four free boats for use in the next parade if they work together to pull them off the lake bottom.  At least these people are outdoors, but not really.  I mean it's covered on top, it opens back into the packed restaurant, they're way too many people per square foot, and that balcony is only maybe 5' deep.  That ain't a good recipe for staying safe.  

I hope somebody has a photo of their facial expressions when the boats started sinking one another.  I would imagine it's like that famous Surly meme where the two women gasp in horror, and the tall dude behind them slowly reveals a massive grin.  

 

I don’t like trump, by a damn sight, but I’m as afraid of Covid as I am of food poisoning.  I’m not going to let it run my life 

[Guest Lobo]

As I am, I doing about 5 meals out per business week for business purposes.  My meetings just don't involve me crowding up against older, obese people for on reason.  You gotta pick your battles.  

[atomheartbevo 89429]

7 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Guy next to 4th vertical pole is wearing a camo bandanna as a mask. I loved Where’s Waldo 

Impressively most of these people are in the high risk category ie olds

Yeah, and given that it's September, you know most of them probably know somebody who went in the hospital or who died from it.  Putting aside celebrities.

If it goes through that group, and I see no reason why we won't see quite a few cases from it, you can bet they will not admit to the contact tracers half the places they went, for fear of looking like idiots.  Apparently plenty of people are balking about where they've been/who they've been around when talking to contact tracers.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

38 cases yesterday for Travis County but the ~58% of these were from the 10 to 19 & 20 to 29 cohorts. (Off small overall number but still)

The 10-19 cohort in particular is far over their normal share of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/6 vs 9/5	1	0	13	9	4	4	3	2	0	2	38
% of Daily Change	2.63%	0.00%	34.21%	23.68%	10.53%	10.53%	7.89%	5.26%	0.00%	5.26%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	8.32%	26.70%	21.40%	16.35%	11.54%	6.58%	3.26%	2.41%	26,961

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[atomheartbevo 89429]

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/investigations/defenders/texas-child-care-facilities-exceed-3600-covid-19-cases/269-4b09817c-624f-44c4-92d1-64540c9aa5a7

Note: This is cumulative, not current

Quote

More than 1,200 kids and almost 2,400 staff in Texas child care centers have tested positive for COVID-19, according to new numbers from the Department of State Health Services.

After multiple requests from the KVUE Defenders, DSHS started publishing the names of child care centers with cases of the virus about two weeks ago.

Top 5 in the Austin area - not too shabby if only 12 cases in the #1 facility

[GRHorn 105]

On 9/5/2020 at 5:07 PM, atomheartbevo said:

We went to the neighorhood park this morning, because I don't get enough humidity in my life, and plenty of folks seemed to have ditched masks and all pretenses of social distancing.   Well, not the olds, the olds out walking around had their masks.

Anyways, I'd like to believe this was just a Labor Day weekend thing and these were all folks who already had it and were somewhat immune to catching it again, and they normally don't do this kind of stuff, but yeah, it's people I recognize from the neighborhood.

Frustrating, because they all know better, and they are not helping us keep it down to the point where we can do sports, etc. again.

Serious question.  Are we supposed to be wearing masks when we go to parks?  If we’re outside, only with family.  

[Message Board User 12389]

18 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Are we supposed to be wearing masks when we go to parks?

Yes.  And faceshield.  And gloves.  And longjohn underwear.  And hazmat suit.  And you should definitely open carry so that you'll be able to defend yourself in case the Covid attacks you.

Just to be safe.  

Edited September 7, 2020 by Message Board User

[BradInATX 9208]

Serious question.  Are we supposed to be wearing masks when we go to parks?  If we’re outside, only with family.  

We don't. As long as we can be a reasonable distance from others. If we can't, we would leave, not sit around in Texas summer wearing masks. My family is approaching it as if extraordinarily unlikely that you're going to catch it outdoors unless you're in very close quarters for extended periods of time. I feel that we're supported by the evidence there.

[Anastasis 23395]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

My family is approaching it as if extraordinarily unlikely that you're going to catch it outdoors unless you're in very close quarters for extended periods of time.

Yeah, were we are at as well. 

I don't do my neighborhood walk with a mask on, but see some folks who do. Certain demographics in particular, Asians and olds in my hood mask up on their 6AM walks. If I take the boys out to fish at the park we aren't gonna wear masks. But 100% in any enclosed or crowed space.  We're wearing masks at soccer games, only breaking from habit when we are well distanced. 

[GRHorn 105]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Serious question.  Are we supposed to be wearing masks when we go to parks?  If we’re outside, only with family.  

We don't. As long as we can be a reasonable distance from others. If we can't, we would leave, not sit around in Texas summer wearing masks. My family is approaching it as if extraordinarily unlikely that you're going to catch it outdoors unless you're in very close quarters for extended periods of time. I feel that we're supported by the evidence there.

I’m with you.
 

AtomHeart just seems to have a real bug up his ass about parks. Maybe I’m mistaken but I think he’s the one that was upset about a couple soccer moms talking at a park without masks. He’s keeping receipts.  
 

Anyway we don’t wear masks at the park. Was just at park last week for my son’s first youth football practice. Only adults wearing masks were coaches. None of the parents, but we’re all kind of spread out. Probably about 6 feet but nobody has a tape measure or anything. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Yeah, were we are at as well. 
I don't do my neighborhood walk with a mask on, but see some folks who do. Certain demographics in particular, Asians and olds in my hood mask up on their 6AM walks. If I take the boys out to fish at the park we aren't gonna wear masks. But 100% in any enclosed or crowed space.  We're wearing masks at soccer games, only breaking from habit when we are well distanced. 

Definitely some fascinating social dynamics in play. I was walking back to the truck in the parking lot at academy and had my mask off. As I was passing a little old lady at about 10 feet, I suddenly felt a sneeze coming. So I put my mask on. Didn't sneeze, but the lady gave me a heartfelt thanks. So I felt like an asshole because I wasn't actually being as courteous as she thought. At least not intentionally. Realized my "member of society" game was slipping a bit, so I've tried to be more aware of my surroundings, particularly for the olds.

[BradInATX 9208]

I’m with you.
 
AtomHeart just seems to have a real bug up his ass about parks. Maybe I’m mistaken but I think he’s the one that was upset about a couple soccer moms talking at a park without masks. He’s keeping receipts.  
 
Anyway we don’t wear masks at the park. Was just at park last week for my son’s first youth football practice. Only adults wearing masks were coaches. None of the parents, but we’re all kind of spread out. Probably about 6 feet but nobody has a tape measure or anything. 

I probably wouldn't want anyone outside of my family group talking to me from closer than 6 feet. I think that's mostly his objection, but I don't presume to speak for him.

[Anastasis 23395]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Realized my "member of society" game was slipping a bit, so I've tried to be more aware of my surroundings, particularly for the olds.

Member of society game has been shit for a long fucking time. Most of these assholes can't even return their shopping cart to the corral pandemic or not.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Serious question.  Are we supposed to be wearing masks when we go to parks?  If we’re outside, only with family.  

I don’t wear mask at all if I’m outdoors. I’ve been to the local zoo like 45 times this summer and some people wear them but not our fam. We just keep a distance or try to.

 

Didn’t wear a mask for beer league softball either, in fact nobody did.

[atomheartbevo 89429]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

AtomHeart just seems to have a real bug up his ass about parks. Maybe I’m mistaken but I think he’s the one that was upset about a couple soccer moms talking at a park without masks. He’s keeping receipts.  

You don't need a mask if you're far enough part outside - I don't wear one when jogging or biking.  When people are shoulder-to-shoulder or facing each other for an extended period of time and not even three feet apart, it's a fucking problem, even outdoors.  

But then again, given the neighborhood I'm in, based on Nextdoor and Facebook, we seem to have a lot of anti-vaccine types mixed in with all of the doctors/nurses/admins/etc. from the nearby hospitals.

If everybody would do their little part, we could get shit back down enough, that we could get a lot more stuff going again.

The parks aren't nearly the problem that little boat parade thing was - after seeing photos from the marinas where hundreds of people were shoulder-to-shoulder, elbow-to-asshole, yeah, we're going to get a bump.

[Bevo 13527]

On 9/3/2020 at 10:35 AM, VolenteHawk said:

If there is a hypothetical herd immunity number that we're approaching, I think it would be hard to tease out of the data.  Anecdotal experience is of course ripe with confirmation bias...either way, I think reasonable people can disagree.  My anecdotal experience was the mask usage was pretty good in and around Austin well before the state mandate.  It was pretty terrible in the exurbs until San Marcos had an outbreak, then even those places started having high compliance, still before it was technically mandated statewide.  Marginal differences in ubiquitous mask usage is probably swamped by the way reopening happened.

I do find it interesting, and increasingly hard to explain without some kind of existing immunity, how similar the backside of infection curves and positive test rates are.  We haven't put our finger on it via science, yet...but I'm nearly convinced that SOMETHING is going on there.

I've said it many months earlier in different forms, but what is R for the virus if there is social distancing and face coverings with the most susceptible remaining in quarantine when a decent percentage of the spreader population already have been exposed and another percentage of the population have some sort of natural immunity? Without being an epidemiologist and running the numbers, I can guarantee you that it is smaller than the original R0. And this new R may still be above 1 but would lead to more of a trickle of cases than large outbreaks.

With that said, I expect there to be a decent sized outbreak after this holiday and the opening of schools. However, I expect that this will be the last large spike until a vaccine comes out next year. Even Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks will not lead to a huge spike in places with previously high numbers like Texas and NYC.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

69 cases yesterday so well below the new buoyancy range of 100-200. Still overweight in terms of a daily % contribution vs historical in the "school age" groupings.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/7 vs 9/6	0	3	9	21	8	7	11	5	5	0	69
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.35%	13.04%	30.43%	11.59%	10.14%	15.94%	7.25%	7.25%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	8.33%	26.71%	21.37%	16.33%	11.55%	6.58%	3.27%	2.40%	27,030

[BrazilHorn 6576]

86 cases yesterday. Still seeing much higher share than their normal representation in the 10-19 age group. This makes several days in a row this has happened. May just be due to back to school etc and certainly should bode well for hospitalizations declining. (Have seen 4 straight days of decline with yesterday at 14)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/8 vs 9/7	0	1	13	19	16	18	9	9	1	0	86
% of Daily Change	0.00%	1.16%	15.12%	22.09%	18.60%	20.93%	10.47%	10.47%	1.16%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.95%	8.35%	26.70%	21.36%	16.34%	11.54%	6.59%	3.26%	2.40%	27,116

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

Still seeing much higher share than their normal representation in the 10-19 age group.

It would be more meaningful if they would split these ranges (10-15) (16-19) (20-24) (25-30)

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

It would be more meaningful if they would split these ranges (10-15) (16-19) (20-24) (25-30)

 

I agree. I will say Travis County does it better than CDC. They tend to lump huge tranches of folks together. Basically like 1-24, 25 - 50 type shit as if there aren't meaningful differences in lifestyle, health etc within those ranges.

[The Dog 43803]

3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I agree. I will say Travis County does it better than CDC. They tend to lump huge tranches of folks together. Basically like 1-24, 25 - 50 type shit as if there aren't meaningful differences in lifestyle, health etc within those ranges.

It's because the CDC gets all kinds of ranges from public health departments all over the country so they have to do it that way. They probably have standards that they want the states to follow but the states can do it any way they want and ignore them.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Every selfish pig going maskless in stores that I've seen in the last month has been women between mid-30's to mid-60's. 

Plenty of stupid men half wearing masks with their nose exposed, but the sows are quite brazen.  I'm sure they claim 'Medical reasons.'  Probably Fibromyalgia. 

Edited September 9, 2020 by clapclapclap

[BTW 370]

I have a theory regarding the photo of the lake rally posted on the last page and the discussion about all these college kids returning to campus(es) together:

These are very likely the same people have been congregating/partying all summer long with no masks and minimal social distancing, I've been told about it and I've seen it on FB, instagram, etc.  Based on their behavior throughout the summer, they have been exposed, period.  Either they are immune, they have contracted it and were asymptomatic, they got a light version of it, or they are just incredibly lucky. There just doesn't seem to be a logical explanation otherwise.  Using the example of the people watching on that deck at the lake, does anyone really believe that it is the first (or even the 10th) time that those people are in a public gathering without masks/social distancing?

I guess we'll know if there's another spike in cases in the next week or two and in hospitalizations in the next few weeks.  Assuming those would correlate to the return to college campuses and the public events associated with Labor Day. 

[dcbc 14407]

Deadline for schools to submit covid case counts was yesterday.  Anyone have a line on where we might be able to access that data?  Couldn't find anything on TEA's or DHHS's website. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

21 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Deadline for schools to submit covid case counts was yesterday.  Anyone have a line on where we might be able to access that data?  Couldn't find anything on TEA's or DHHS's website. 

There’s that NEA site by school district and state. Don’t know how current. 
https://app.smartsheet.com/b/publish?EQBCT=00a2d3fbe4184e75b06f392fc66dca13

[dcbc 14407]

3 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

There’s that NEA site by school district and state. Don’t know how current. 
https://app.smartsheet.com/b/publish?EQBCT=00a2d3fbe4184e75b06f392fc66dca13

Thanks.  Not terribly current, but hopefully updated soon. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

9 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Thanks.  Not terribly current, but hopefully updated soon. 

Schools are to start supplying data this week I believe. They can add retroactive data if applicable.

Here is site that details process etc

https://tea.texas.gov/about-tea/news-and-multimedia/correspondence/taa-letters/2020-2021-covid-19-public-school-case-reporting

 

[InkaUtexas 25517]

22 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Thanks.  Not terribly current, but hopefully updated soon. 

Shit, I must live in paradise. My ISD is not even listed. 

[Rip76 4914]

Nice.......

Houston’s Daily Covid-19 Tally Inflated by Months-Old Cases 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/houston-s-daily-covid-19-tallies-inflated-by-months-old-cases

[Anastasis 23395]

1 minute ago, Rip76 said:

Nice.......

Houston’s Daily Covid-19 Tally Inflated by Months-Old Cases 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/houston-s-daily-covid-19-tallies-inflated-by-months-old-cases

On Tuesday, for example, more than 70% of the new cases disclosed actually were detected prior to this month and some dated as far back as June.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

Deleted.  Caught myself with a political take.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Texas St. Armadillos

[Rip76 4914]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

On Tuesday, for example, more than 70% of the new cases disclosed actually were detected prior to this month and some dated as far back as June.

The confusion means authorities may be exaggerating the current severity of the outbreak -- and were unknowingly understating the extent of the crisis in June and July, when hospitals were stretched to their limits. The situation also highlights the dilemma facing political leaders imposing mask mandates and other restrictions based on what they presume is accurate, timely data.

[MissingInAction 24816]

I wonder how many thousands will be traced back to the football game.

[utee94 15745]

5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I wonder how many thousands will be traced back to the football game.

I'd guess about 250,000.

 

 

[Trey3216 15325]

59 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I'd guess about 250,000.

 

 

Billions in damages.  We want da gold 

[Anastasis 23395]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I wonder how many thousands will be traced back to the football game.

[Hate 20103]

What football game?

[Surly Bevo 24696]

What football game?

THE football game.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Some typical Travis County weirdness where it looks like they moved some cases into different age brackets.  1 to 9 dropped day over day while there was a big increase in <1. I think had we really had 6 kids <1 year in a single day that would have been all over local news as that would be from what I can see the largest single day increase for that age bracket ever. Low overall case count with just 90 new cases yesterday. Also nice drop (except for <1) in the younger brackets reversing the week long trend we had been seeing. For those that hope to see AISD play sports this fall for the FIRST time since June 6th Austin had <10 hospital admissions with 9 yesterday. That is a HUGE step and marks 5 straight days of decline there.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/9 vs 9/8	6	-2	6	14	22	17	18	6	4	-1	90
% of Daily Change	6.67%	-2.22%	6.67%	15.56%	24.44%	18.89%	20.00%	6.67%	4.44%	-1.11%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.94%	8.34%	26.66%	21.37%	16.35%	11.57%	6.59%	3.26%	2.39%	27,206

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

10 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Some typical Travis County weirdness where it looks like they moved some cases into different age brackets.

It took them so long to put the numbers together that people aged.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It took them so long to put the numbers together that people aged.

Yep, this happens I'd say at least once every couple of weeks. I am sure it happens across all age buckets but it is really noticeable in the smaller volumes ones like with the young kids or 80 +. Since I track change daily I can see it when it does this. Then I think they just move it to bucket that they feel it belongs to or just remove altogether.

There are some definite data issues with Travis Co

[orange dream 1241]

On 9/9/2020 at 9:20 AM, BTW said:

I have a theory regarding the photo of the lake rally posted on the last page and the discussion about all these college kids returning to campus(es) together:

These are very likely the same people have been congregating/partying all summer long with no masks and minimal social distancing, I've been told about it and I've seen it on FB, instagram, etc.  Based on their behavior throughout the summer, they have been exposed, period.  Either they are immune, they have contracted it and were asymptomatic, they got a light version of it, or they are just incredibly lucky. There just doesn't seem to be a logical explanation otherwise.  Using the example of the people watching on that deck at the lake, does anyone really believe that it is the first (or even the 10th) time that those people are in a public gathering without masks/social distancing?

I guess we'll know if there's another spike in cases in the next week or two and in hospitalizations in the next few weeks.  Assuming those would correlate to the return to college campuses and the public events associated with Labor Day. 

Had lunch with a friend yesterday who told me that his daughter who is a college Freshman (not UT) tested positive last Friday.  She and her roommate and suitemates have been hanging out with 4 or 5 others for the last few weeks.  Mid-week last week (Sept 1st or 2nd) one of the guys started having symptoms and tested positive.  The rest of the group got tested (no symptoms) and all but one tested positive.  Now they have all been moved to the "isolation" apartments on campus where they continue to hang out, do virtual class and have meals delivered to them multiple times per day. The original guy who tested positive is still the only one with any symptoms. None of the others would have been tested had the first one not had symptoms and tested positive.  Strangely the positive cases are isolated for 10 days or 3 days after symptoms cease (whichever is longer) but the negative case is isolated for 14 days.

Edited September 10, 2020 by orange dream

[kevwun 15647]

Those are the recommended quarantine times.  The incubation period can be up to 14 days, so that's why it's longer for people who have been exposed but tested negative.

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Travis County Breaks 100!

Hospitalizations down to :99

ICU: 40

Ventilator: 24

Down Down Down

 

[rpspeed 1351]

39 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Travis County Breaks 100!

Hospitalizations down to :99

ICU: 40

Ventilator: 24

Down Down Down

 

You're gonna upset some people with more positive news. They'll demand we wear masks in the shower now.

[Brisketexan 104607]

3 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

You're gonna upset some people with more positive news. They'll demand we wear masks in the shower now.

I'm thrilled with it.  I hope it keeps up. I hope we can come up with a good transition back to in-person schooling plan, that provides for isolating and contact tracing any positives.  We've got to do everything we can to move society forward, while reasonably balancing the risks.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I'm thrilled with it.  I hope it keeps up. I hope we can come up with a good transition back to in-person schooling plan, that provides for isolating and contact tracing any positives.  We've got to do everything we can to move society forward, while reasonably balancing the risks.

no no no. you see, everyone who has not dismissed this virus as a hoax, but instead has stressed the importance of taking preventative measures that once enacted reduced its spread, are actually upset that what they were screaming for worked.

the amount of brain worms in this thread is terrifying.

[Brisketexan 104607]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

no no no. you see, everyone who has not dismissed this virus as a hoax, but instead has stressed the importance of taking preventative measures that once enacted reduced its spread, are actually upset that what they were screaming for worked.

the amount of brain worms in this thread is terrifying.

I really don't get it.

The virus isn't a hoax, real-deal measures needed to be taken and still need to be taken.  Minimizing large group activities that can be limited, and wearing masks, seem to be two obvious ones.

Life, education, and business must go on to the extent possible.  If we can take reasonable protective measures that will allow things to proceed at a relatively low risk (masks, plexiglass dividers in some places, etc.), we should do that -- that way, we can go forward with important activities.

The virus is real, and a significant threat to life and health.  Continuing to live our lives is very important.  Accepting that both of those things are true, there are ways to forge a good path.  But we can't do that.  Because teams, tribes, etc.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I really don't get it.

The virus isn't a hoax, real-deal measures needed to be taken and still need to be taken.  Minimizing large group activities that can be limited, and wearing masks, seem to be two obvious ones.

Life, education, and business must go on to the extent possible.  If we can take reasonable protective measures that will allow things to proceed at a relatively low risk (masks, plexiglass dividers in some places, etc.), we should do that -- that way, we can go forward with important activities.

The virus is real, and a significant threat to life and health.  Continuing to live our lives is very important.  Accepting that both of those things are true, there are ways to forge a good path.  But we can't do that.  Because teams, tribes, etc.

it's complete insanity.

we are in a simulation.