COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[dcar00 14,035]

Just now, Anastasis said:

Looks to be a UT West Campus human centipede thing.

https://www.kut.org/post/ut-austin-says-100-people-three-west-campus-clusters-have-covid-19

 

UT is going to pop just like bama and others.  its inevitable.

[Message Board User 12,389]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

LOL. You're turning yourself into a joke. All you do is run around complaining that the media jumps to conclusions without proper fact gathering, and then you run around this board jumping to conclusions without proper fact gathering.

Settle down Beavis. Try to expand your horizons as a poster a bit. 

If there's a good explanation for the outcome of Sweden relative to other countries, again I'm open to other explanations.  

[Anastasis 23,395]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

UT is going to pop just like bama and others.  its inevitable.

UT requiring testing to pull a game ticket for Saturday is going to spike the numbers as well. 

 

Doesn't really reflect what is going on in ATX more broadly. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

If there's a good explanation for the outcome of Sweden relative to other countries, again I'm open to other explanations.  

It could be herd immunity. It could also be a multitude of other things. Social distancing. Lack of testing (Sweden's test per capita is very very low). 

The head of Sweden's Public Health microbiology department doesn't believe they're anywhere near herd immunity:

"“We know that large parts of the population are unprotected, as they haven’t been infected,” Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the Public Health Agency’s microbiology department, said on Tuesday. That means there remains a “large susceptibility in the population,” she said." (https://fortune.com/2020/07/16/sweden-covid-strategy-herd-immunity-elusive/)

All I'm saying is that you are doing exactly what you bitch and moan about the media doing constantly. You are reporting things as true (in a combative and cocksure way - not that I have room to talk there), when in reality we are nowhere near a point where we can say with any confidence that declining cases are because of some sort of herd immunity. There are a million things it could be. It could be seasonality. It could be a weakening virus strain. We understand almost nothing about this virus. Acting like you can definitively state really anything about it is as silly as the media that you hate. That's all I'm saying.

[South Austin 52,144]

27 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Hopefully it’s just some reporting glitch.  

[Message Board User 12,389]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It could be herd immunity. It could also be a multitude of other things. Social distancing. Lack of testing (Sweden's test per capita is very very low). 

The head of Sweden's Public Health microbiology department doesn't believe they're anywhere near herd immunity:

"“We know that large parts of the population are unprotected, as they haven’t been infected,” Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the Public Health Agency’s microbiology department, said on Tuesday. That means there remains a “large susceptibility in the population,” she said." (https://fortune.com/2020/07/16/sweden-covid-strategy-herd-immunity-elusive/)

All I'm saying is that you are doing exactly what you bitch and moan about the media doing constantly. You are reporting things as true (in a combative and cocksure way - not that I have room to talk there), when in reality we are nowhere near a point where we can say with any confidence that declining cases are because of some sort of herd immunity. There are a million things it could be. It could be seasonality. It could be a weakening virus strain. We understand almost nothing about this virus. Acting like you can definitively state really anything about it is as silly as the media that you hate. That's all I'm saying.

Understood.  And if this board is known for anything, it's for its respectful, cordial, peaceful ways to resolve differences and disagreements.  So I will try to be less combative.

But seriously, I'm trying to come up with alternative explanations for Sweden's and the Northeasts extremely low positivity rate and I just can't.  Even Cuomo couldn't (in the clip above).  The weakening of the virus is the other possible explanation, though that would explain declining hospitalizations (not declining positivity).

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, Message Board User said:

Understood.  And if this board is known for anything, it's for its respectful, cordial, peaceful ways to resolve differences and disagreements.  So I will try to be less combative.

 

LOL. That's why I said I didn't have any room to talk in regards to being combative. By no means am I telling you not to be a dick, that's what we're here for.

Quote

But seriously, I'm trying to come up with alternative explanations for Sweden's and the Northeasts extremely low positivity rate and I just can't.  Even Cuomo couldn't (in the clip above).  The weakening of the virus is the other possible explanation, though that would explain declining hospitalizations (not declining positivity).

I get it. I mean, on surface, I tend to wander towards the "herd immunity is lower than we thought" answer as well. It fits. But there's so much we don't know about this thing. I mean at one point the scientists believed, confidently, that it was a respiratory disease. Now we know it's a cardiovascular disease. There's nothing really but anecdotal data and we don't have adequate controls to say "yeah, it's herd immunity".

I certainly hope it is. I need some Vegas and/or NOLA in my life.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Understood.  And if this board is known for anything, it's for its respectful, cordial, peaceful ways to resolve differences and disagreements.  So I will try to be less combative.

But seriously, I'm trying to come up with alternative explanations for Sweden's and the Northeasts extremely low positivity rate and I just can't.  Even Cuomo couldn't (in the clip above).  The weakening of the virus is the other possible explanation, though that would explain declining hospitalizations (not declining positivity).

It’s the end of the summer.  I hope you are saying something similar six weeks from now.

[bolverk 29,399]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah.  And there's data from France showing where required mask usage inside anywhere is followed by a massive spike in new cases.  Is it because the masks limited the spike from going further, or is it because a virus will do virus things?  I'm not saying masks don't help.  I never have.  I wear a mask inside the grocery, walking to my table at the restaurant and from my table to the pisser.  I wear one walking into my office building and take it off once in my office and the door is shut.  I also spend less time in the office than normal.  I wash my hands all the time and have for years.   I'm saying that masks alone, and shutdowns alone, and other shit alone aren't the singular or combined reasons for the thing decreasing.  It's a large combination of that and the science of how viruses work and how our bodies work.  I'm not the one lacking nuance here.  

 

 

I'm not going to argue with you about "herd immunity," because there's likely something to it. The only real question would be at what level it’s achieved.

According to these data, the total known case rate in the US has been 1,960/100,000 population (roughly 2 percent of the population and assume x10 gets us to 20 percent total infected). Personally, I don't think that's high enough to get to herd immunity, but I could very well be wrong. At the same time, it has diminished the sheer number of people who are "infectable."

In France, 528/100,000 are known to be infected (x10 = roughly 5 percent total infected). That's definitely not enough for herd immunity.

It should be noted that most French people take nearly the entire month off for vacation during the month of August. But, like here, young people have been lax about using them and now they've started school back up. And, now, most new cases are among the young who aren't going to the hospital or dying. The rise of cases has been especially sharp in the south of France which is where a shit ton of Parisians and northern French go on vacation and have brought it back to the north, which is where the previous rise occurred.

One curious thing is that they seem to have had two levels of mask mandates: One for public spaces in doors on July 20 and the latest includes workplaces on August 18. So, it seems, a lot of folks may have been working indoors without masks, which seems totally idiotic.

I’ll reach out to a couple of old friends in France to ask about the two different mandates. I've noticed them posting complaints on FB about how Macron has been managing over last few weeks. There's a lot of nuance to uncover here.

Edit: Prior to the recent rise in cases, the only places that were orange on this map (click the per capita button) were in the northeast part of the country, stretching from Strasbourg on the German border to Paris. Absolutely everything outside of that was yellow. Now, we see the orange has traveled down the Rhone Valley and into the Alps (skiers) and down to Marseilles on the coast heading east from there all along the Riviera.

I really think the rise in cases was attributable to vacationers acting to like fucking lazy tourists spreading the virus.

Edited September 11, 2020 by bolverk

[Message Board User 12,389]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

It’s the end of the summer.  I hope you are saying something similar six weeks from now.

On that I think we can all agree.

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Hopefully it’s just some reporting glitch.  

ATX will have a "glitch" come Monday or Tuesday, because

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

UT requiring testing to pull a game ticket for Saturday is going to spike the numbers as well. 

I don't personally care how many there are, as long as hospitalizations are down.

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I'm not going to argue with you about "herd immunity," because there's likely something to it. The only real question would be at what level it’s achieved.

According to these data, the total known case rate in the US has been 1,960/100,000 population (roughly 2 percent of the population and assume x10 gets us to 20 percent total infected). Personally, I don't think that's high enough to get to herd immunity, but I could very well be wrong. At the same time, it has diminished the sheer number of people who are "infectable."

In France, 528/100,000 are known to be infected (x10 = roughly 5 percent total infected). That's definitely not enough for herd immunity.

It should be noted that most French people take nearly the entire month off for vacation during the month of August. But, like here, young people have been lax about using them and now they've started school back up. And, now, most new cases are among the young who aren't going to the hospital or dying. The rise of cases has been especially sharp in the south of France which is where a shit ton of Parisians and northern French go on vacation and have brought it back to the north, which is where the previous rise occurred.

One curious thing is that they seem to have had two levels of mask mandates: One for public spaces in doors on July 20 and the latest includes workplaces on August 18. So, it seems, a lot of folks may have been working indoors without masks, which seems totally idiotic.

I’ll reach out to a couple of old friends in France to ask about the two different mandates. I've noticed them posting complaints on FB about how Macron has been managing over last few weeks. There's a lot of nuance to uncover here.

Edit: Prior to the recent rise in cases, the only places that were orange on this map (click the per capita button) were in the northeast part of the country, stretching from Strasbourg on the German border to Paris. Absolutely everything outside of that was yellow. Now, we see the orange has traveled down the Rhone Valley and into the Alps (skiers) and down to Marseilles on the coast heading east from there all along the Riviera.

I really think the rise in cases was attributable to vacationers acting to like fucking lazy tourists spreading the virus.

And I’m not disagreeing with that, it’s just weird how this shit works.   Regarding herd immunity, I find it highly interesting how communities that had over a 20% positive test rate for a decent percentage rate of time have all had a major collapse in hospitalizations/deaths/positivity rate afterward.    It’s stuff we’re not used to.   But it’s fascinating. 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

Worst day in a while as Travis County came in at 218 cases yesterday. Hopefully this isn't a sign of early Labor Day Weekend impact.

Big spikes in 20-29 (possibly UT related) with 71 cases  and unfortunately 80+ with 7. For those 80+ it is a hair over 20% mortality rate so anytime there is a spike there it is not a good day.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/10 vs 9/9	2	8	27	71	50	27	18	9	-1	7	218
% of Daily Change	0.92%	3.67%	12.39%	32.57%	22.94%	12.39%	8.26%	4.13%	-0.46%	3.21%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.94%	8.38%	26.71%	21.39%	16.32%	11.54%	6.57%	3.23%	2.39%	27,424

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

14 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

okay with thousands of your fellow citizens dying

Yeah. But only if I get to choose who.

[bolverk 29,399]

24 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Big spikes in 20-29 (possibly UT related) with 71 cases

UT Austin Says 100 People In Three West Campus Clusters Have COVID-19

[Bevo 13,527]

11 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

And I’m not disagreeing with that, it’s just weird how this shit works.   Regarding herd immunity, I find it highly interesting how communities that had over a 20% positive test rate for a decent percentage rate of time have all had a major collapse in hospitalizations/deaths/positivity rate afterward.    It’s stuff we’re not used to.   But it’s fascinating. 

I think it will turn out to be that the effective R is closer to 1 than R0 which was estimated in the 3.5 range. I also believe some people have innate immunity and some people show no symptoms upon infection. If 20% of the population has had the disease and another 15% are not susceptible and the 20% infected contain the main spreaders and the remaining population is doing social distancing and masks, the disease will spread very slow.

[Message Board User 12,389]

 

[South Austin 52,144]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

We did it! High fives all around!!!!

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

https://www.kxan.com/news/education/we-need-100-compliance-leander-isd-says-families-are-failing-to-reliably-complete-daily-self-assessments/

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This ongoing threat is one reason why LISD officials are asking families to accurately and reliably fill out a daily self-assessment for their kids every morning before heading into school.

However, they are finding that very few are cooperating.

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One teacher at an LISD elementary school said less than 20% of the student body completed its daily self-assessment for that day. Administrators are asking staff to be more diligent in ensuring the screenings are being completed.

“We need 100% compliance. We need all parents and families to say ‘my student is not symptomatic today that is coming in for in-person learning,'” district spokesperson Corey Ryan said.

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Some parents KXAN spoke to admitted it felt like an unnecessary step and was often a daily annoyance in the hectic bustle of preparing for the morning.

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Other parents shared different reasons why their self-assessments weren’t being completed. One mom said the 30 minute time-limit requested from the district was too strict. A different parent said it was confusing and the instructions weren’t clear. Another parent said they didn’t even realize they had to fill out a form, altogether.

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Ryan admits the Google Spreadsheet most schools are using for the self-assessment is not foolproof. There’s no way to guarantee an asymptomatic student won’t enter the building. But Ryan says it holds everyone accountable for the health of the student population.

“It minimizes the spread in our schools and allows us to stay open and stay doing what we do best,” Ryan said.

Ryan underlined the importance of ensuring your kids are symptom-free: If your kid feels sick and needs to come home from a Leander ISD school — for whatever reason, be it a stomach ache, allergies, etc. — they will not be allowed back in the building until they get a negative COVID-19 test.

Damnit parents, get your shit together so we can keep the schools open.

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

Lawsuits filed to change the state's rules on nursing home visitors

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/families-sue-gov-abbott-claim-texas-is-violating-constitutional-rights-of-nursing-home-residents/

Quote

Renneberg said her father remained healthy for four months after the pandemic began, but he ultimately tested positive for the virus and later died. 

“To know they’ve suffered months of cruel isolation, and you’ve had your heart ripped out? It’s a tormenting process that you weren’t able to be there with them for their last months. Their last months,” she cried. “The government has taken that away from us. The government is the one that’s responsible for the cruelty to my family.” 

Her attorney, Warren Norred, said they are concerned about how long these restrictions have been in place. 

“We wouldn’t have filed this a day into this or a week into this,” Norred said. “We’ve had multiple plaintiffs die and pass away while we are trying to find some remedy for them.”

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....the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) restricted access to vulnerable long-term care facilities — banning any non-essential visitors, including family members.

If they are successful, they'll get access to relatives.  @TwiceHorn or @Ghost of LL or the other 48% of Surly posters who are lawyers perhaps have a better take on it.

I see both sides.  On the one hand, you want to limit access and protect those relatives who need a nursing home.

On the other hand, like this lady, her dad was in there 4 months after the pandemic began, and even "isolated" from family/friends, he still got it and basically died alone.

And that kicked in back in March, and we are closing in on October.  How long can you prevent family members from having access to those folks?

[Message Board User 12,389]

28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/education/we-need-100-compliance-leander-isd-says-families-are-failing-to-reliably-complete-daily-self-assessments/

Damnit parents, get your shit together so we can keep the schools open.

100% compliance is the expectation?  From parents of public school students?  

Some of the Surly teachers like @Knoxtnhorn can chime in here with his horror stories, but let's just say there is a wide range of functioning among all parents of public school students. 

When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before and the parent(s) not bothering to wash or change clothes.  And kids who would show up with nothing in their lunchbox and no money for lunch.  Or the mother (who didn't work) who sent her kid to school with a 105 temperature.

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

[TwiceHorn 31,272]

I guess it's going to boil down to weighing the governmental interest in keeping olds safe/preventing virus spread in facilities versus the individual right to visitors.  The key is probably how that individual right is characterized.  The right could be characterized as a fundamental one, akin to freedom of travel or association, or something less fundamental.  The more fundamental the right, the more scrutiny the government action is going to receive.

Norred is kind of a goofball and right-wing gadfly.  He's aggy if that's any surprise.  But he's had some success.

I don't have a good feel for how this might come out.

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

Oh, my wife was a teacher, and time and again she had to deal with people who sent their blatantly obviously sick kids to school. 

Hell, there's a Surly poster whose wife is a school nurse, and she's dealt with plenty of parents who gave their kids Tylenol or whatever to help keep the fever down long enough to get them in school, so they could go work/do whatever.  Flu wouldn't go through kids like it does, if more families would/could keep their kids home when they are sick.

100% is not realistic, but if you can get enough folks to do this, it doesn't have to get fucked up for every other kid/family.

And you can't say "we are trying to get 90% to do this", because then a shitload of people will think they can be a part of that 10% that isn't doing it.

[Message Board User 12,389]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And you can't say "we are trying to get 90% to do this", because then a shitload of people will think they can be a part of that 10% that isn't doing it.

Good point - if you're going to do the form (which is in itself a questionable practice as how do you know truthiness of the respondent) this is the best argument.

[Anastasis 23,395]

ATX new cases back down to 101, but bad news on the new hospitalizations, up to 18 new admits. 

[Knoxtnhorn 5,930]

49 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

100% compliance is the expectation?  From parents of public school students?  

Some of the Surly teachers like @Knoxtnhorn can chime in here with his horror stories, but let's just say there is a wide range of functioning among all parents of public school students. 

When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before and the parent(s) not bothering to wash or change clothes.  And kids who would show up with nothing in their lunchbox and no money for lunch.  Or the mother (who didn't work) who sent her kid to school with a 105 temperature.

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

(Disclaimer: 3rd glass of bourbon; please forgive my grammar below.)

I taught for 5 years in the poorest school in Knoxville.  Going off memory, the breakdown was something along the lines of...

1) 5% fully functioning, always fed, always dressed in clean clothes, always did homework.

2) 20% really low income/low education level, tried their best, did what they could but were still at a disadvantage monetarily/socially/academically

3) 25% just going through the motions, if I asked them to do something, they would, but would do the bare minimum

4) 50% complete clusterF, no future whatsoever, most fathers missing or in prison, many moms missing or too busy effing around, etc...

Though the socioeconomic level is not that much higher where I currently teach (near suburb of Dallas), I have MUCH better family support here.  All of my current students have families that fall into either Category 1 or 2.   I believe teachers have a huge hand in how much the families support their children.  Many parents have no idea what to do or how to help their kids - especially foreign language speakers. I've made it a point to do everything I can to welcome and embrace each and every one of them.  Instead of the, "Your child needs to do this" which I see far too often in my school, I've always made it a point to say, "This is what we need to do.  How can I help you and your child?"  And, Good Lord, I really did spend 3 straight hours the other night texting with a Vietnamese parent with each text requiring the Google Translate app.

I'll give you an example.  Before face-to-face, I was in the office a couple of weeks ago when a mom of a child showed up to ask how/what to do with her child's distance learning.  She was a kindergarten student, so she didn't have anything to draw on from last year.  Anyway, our secretary called the teacher, who was at lunch.  Teacher said she'd be down in a bit.  10 minutes later, the mom is still sitting out front, waiting for the teacher.  I go outside and introduce myself, talk to the mom, welcome her child to school, etc... This is not a "Hey look at how cool I am" point.  The point is that I can easily see the mom being discouraged from interaction in the future because she's just made to wait while the teacher finishes lunch.  

I guess I didn't really address your @Message Board User point.  Yes, there are quite a few folks that probably shouldn't have had kids.  But, it's been my experience that you can alleviate a lot of that by building relationships at the outset of each school year.  Unfortunately, it probably only takes one year of bad teaching to screw up this ideal.

 

[Knoxtnhorn 5,930]

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Knoxtnhorn

[Message Board User 12,389]

5 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some everybody on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

Rings a bell, but can't recall the details.

And fixed.

[Neonmoon 38,127]

9 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

I remember that. I think I donated but fuck I can’t remember last week. I hope I did. Willing to again 

[Trey3216 15,325]

17 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

It was pretty damn cool.  

[DDD Dad 14,251]

Daughter who teaches third grade informed me today that 1/3 of her class is remote.

Sounds good until you hear the details. 1/3 constitutes one of the 3 third grade home rooms. She still has two full classes of 20+students face to face. The other group she teaches by zoom for a third of the day.

How is that okay? Full fucking classrooms with kids who can’t keep masks on etc.

JFC.

[Knoxtnhorn 5,930]

Apologies for the tl;dr.  I get talkative when I drink.

So going back to my 2nd post.  It was nearing the end of my last year in Knoxville.  I had this kid in my class that had - quite literally - the worst home life you could imagine.   The worst (or best) part was that the kid was as happy as can be.  Kind of like Charlie in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.  Horrible life but very positive personality.  Well, one day the kid comes in with a badly bruised and knotted forehead.  He told me his stepmom had slammed his head into a table.  The way he told it was so matter of fact.  Kind of like, "Why is there chocolate on your face?"  "Because I just ate a chocolate bar."  The poor kid never stopped smiling even when abused.  It absolutely destroyed me.  That day happened to be standardized test day and I was to proctor another class.  I hid in the bathroom for 2 hours because I couldn't maintain myself.  Hell, I'm tearing up now.

That night I mentioned it on Shaggy to vent.  Someone piped up and suggested that he would like to donate money to this kid to buy him something nice.  I wasn't really comfortable with the idea; however, in knowing it would do good for the kid, I accepted.  More and more people began to donate, so it got to the point to which I asked if it was ok to split the money and buy something for each kid in the room.  More people donated, so I ended up getting stuff for each kid in the grade + a cupcake party for the entire school.  BTW, each kid got something they wanted and something educational.  I can't recall how much was raised, but my Amazon history still gives me suggestions for things like Volcano kits and educational books.  

It was pretty awesome being able to pass out the toys, books, and games.  I was able to leave a school and community on a really high note.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Knoxtnhorn

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

Not Knox, but the armchair epidimeologists on this site crack me up!  Masks don't work, herd immunity  is  here, the virus is just like  the flu!

 

Meanwhile we're headed to 400k dead, economy is in the shitter, no vaccine in sight, but everything is awesome.  Get your heads out of your ass and figure out how to live until summer 2020 with restrictions.  The state government of Texas recognizes this as they are going to continue to suspend the open meetings act rules requiring in person meetings for political subdivisions at least past the end of the year.

If you buy the bullshit that we're on the downswing and not just in another cycle, I don't know what to tell you.

[Footballpants 121]

Not Knox, but the armchair epidimeologists on this site crack me up!  Masks don't work, herd immunity  is  here, the virus is just like  the flu!
 
Meanwhile we're headed to 400k dead, economy is in the shitter, no vaccine in sight, but everything is awesome.  Get your heads out of your ass and figure out how to live until summer 2020 with restrictions.  The state government of Texas recognizes this as they are going to continue to suspend the open meetings act rules requiring in person meetings for political subdivisions at least past the end of the year.
If you buy the bullshit that we're on the downswing and not just in another cycle, I don't know what to tell you.

Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Hefeweizen 5,307]

1 hour ago, Footballpants said:

Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

You don't even know how to turn your autosig off.  Tapatalk is balls.

 

And I am definitely lightening up with football starting.  Everyone is excited to watch us stomp a mudhole in UTEP today.

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

101 cases in Austin yesterday and show data movement as tends to happen sometimes (curse you data entry clerk). Still higher school age cases as a % of yesterday's cases vs their normal representation. AISD should have turned in 1st week CV19 positives so it will be interesting to see once this becomes available.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/11  vs 9/10	-1	2	16	40	23	17	1	4	1	-2	101
% of Daily Change	-0.99%	1.98%	15.84%	39.60%	22.77%	16.83%	0.99%	3.96%	0.99%	-1.98%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.94%	8.40%	26.75%	21.39%	16.32%	11.51%	6.56%	3.23%	2.38%	27,525

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

49 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

AISD should have turned in 1st week CV19 positives so it will be interesting to see once this becomes available.

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

Good point re: AISD ( I think O'Henry had 5 kids in attendance eg). Will be interesting to see where it falls though. Fingers crossed we will be good in regards to hospitalizations & UT as there have been as of last week no hospitalizations across a large sample of college students returning this fall.

Travis had like 18 admits I believe yesterday still well over the 10 & under needed to move to Stage 2.

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Good point re: AISD ( I think O'Henry had 5 kids in attendance eg). Will be interesting to see where it falls though. Fingers crossed we will be good in regards to hospitalizations & UT as there have been as of last week no hospitalizations across a large sample of college students returning this fall.

Travis had like 18 admits I believe yesterday still well over the 10 & under needed to move to Stage 2.

From what I understand as far as kids at the physical schools, it's kids that have no other options (can't be left home alone), and it's a fairly low number.

AISD is sending out questionnaires, teachers are talking to parents, etc. like crazy to get a grasp on how many students will be back next month, and many parents are probably being pretty cagey and wanting to see what things look like in a week or two. 

If we can get to stage 2 by the end of September (I know, huge "if"), you might see more kids returning to school.  Hell, maybe the schools can open up more slots (I'm not completely sure on the 25% thing - ask @Larry T. Spider ).

Edited September 12, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

The city must be happy with the trends.  Austin Parks and Rec are opening up more facilities (as is San Marcos)

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200911/austin-san-marcos-to-reopen-parks-amenities-rec-facilities

Quote

Austin’s Parks and Recreation Department on Friday said more park amenities would be made available and some programs would restart as early as Saturday. In San Marcos, city officials announced that parks would reopen starting Wednesday.

Quote

The Parks Department said the decision to reopen Austin’s park amenities was made in consultation with Austin Public Health and city leaders. As of Friday, Austin-Travis County’s weekly average number of new hospital admissions for the coronavirus has stayed below 20 since late August, down from a peak of 75 on July 8.

Quote

In Hays County, San Marcos city officials plan to reopen all public facilities, riverfront parks, neighborhood park playgrounds, athletic complexes, and tennis and basketball courts Wednesday, starting at 8 a.m. But Children’s Park Playscape won’t reopen until Sept. 18 because of previously scheduled tree work, officials said.

These locations and facilities will be available for public use Saturday:

• ‒ Barton Creek spillway, aka “Barking Springs.”
• ‒ Disc golf courses.
• ‒ Neighborhood tennis courts.
• ‒ Outdoor adult exercise equipment.
• ‒ Campsites at Emma Long Metropolitan Park.

Hell yeah - the kids like camping there, and it's close by, and it's getting cooler.

Edited September 12, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Deej 76,566]

21 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before

 

Kid has Surly poster potential written all over him. 

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

17 minutes ago, Deej said:

Kid has Surly poster potential written all over him. 

Or aggy football fan.

[Message Board User 12,389]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

Then data out of Georgia should be very encouraging.

Hospitalizations continue to decrease (K-12 in-person since early August) and then after an initial surge in cases among 18-29 year olds likely due to mass testing, cases have also started to decrease, suggesting those positive cases have been isolating OR those positive cases weren't contagious.

 

[Anastasis 23,395]

Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population. Anyways, I assume that these counts will hit the ATX numbers at some point.

 

 

 

 

[Message Board User 12,389]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population.

It doesn't.

Most updated numbers from UT indicates positivity rate is between 1-2%.

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,968]

That's 8% of students who reasonably believed they had a chance of testing negative.

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population. 

Well, covid does make you want to get out and go do stuff.

[Surly Bevo 24,696]

Has there been any more scuttlebutt on tests leaning too hard on what they call positive?  I recall even NYT was on that trail a few weeks ago something about cycles and what not but at least for me it's gone cold.

[Message Board User 12,389]

36 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Has there been any more scuttlebutt on tests leaning too hard on what they call positive?  I recall even NYT was on that trail a few weeks ago something about cycles and what not but at least for me it's gone cold.

Of course there has...but...well...I've ranted enough on this subject and most of the denizens on this thread know my feelings.

But yes...

 

[atomheartbevo 89,429]

"An image of SARS-COV-2 virions infecting the cells that line the airways of our lungs. The image is taken at 1 micrometer magnification. Image: Camille Ehre/The New England Journal of Medicine"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMicm2023328

https://gizmodo.com/horrifying-images-show-how-the-coronavirus-ravages-our-1844946904

Quote

The ball-looking things are SARS-CoV-2, while the bendy churro-looking structures are cells with cilia, the hair-like projections that move in rhythm to clear debris, mucus and microbes from the airways, allowing us to breathe normally. Ehre found that SARS-CoV-2 was particularly fond of infecting these cililated cells, and that once it did, it went to town making more of itself.

Quote

“When we looked at these infected cultures under an SEM microscope, the most striking observation was the astonishing number of virions produced by a single infected cell,” Ehre said over email. “Some of these infected cells were so engorged with viruses that they rounded up and detached from the epithelium, giving the impression that they were about to burst.”

The high levels of SARS-CoV-2 produced by airway cells (a 3-to-1 ratio in the study) aptly helps explain why the coronavirus can so greatly affect different parts of the body nearby, like the lining of our nasal cavity, which is crucial to our sense of smell, according to Ehre.

The loss of smell?

Quote

“A huge viral load is available to spread within an infected individual and infect the olfactory epithelium, explaining the common symptom of loss of smell, and also infect the salivary glands, which would explain the symptom of dry mouth,” she said. “The worst is when viruses go to the lungs and produce pneumonia that causes shortness of breath and ultimately can lead to death.”