COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[utee94 15841]

2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

That's 8% of students who reasonably believed they had a chance of testing negative.

Eh.  It's 8% of students that are willing enough  to interact closely with other human beings that they want to go sit with 25,000 of them, which implies they've likely already been closely interacting with other human beings.  They're a self-selecting sample that is likely to trend higher toward infection and I'm honestly surprised it was only 8% of this group that tested positive.

The students that are being careful and steering clear of interaction, aren't going to want to go to a football game with 25,000 other people, so they're not going to come in for the test at all.

Edited September 13, 2020 by utee94

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Nice low case numbers yesterday in Travis County with only 53 cases. still high % wise in the 10-19 age group but based off low count so still a small # of cases there.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/12 vs 9/11	2	4	8	10	15	9	3	0	2	0	53
% of Daily Change	3.77%	7.55%	15.09%	18.87%	28.30%	16.98%	5.66%	0.00%	3.77%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.95%	8.42%	26.74%	21.40%	16.32%	11.49%	6.55%	3.23%	2.37%	27,578

[BradInATX 9208]

Hospitalizations still looking great. Seems like if Labor Day was going to be a major problem we'd start seeing a little bit of upward movement from that, but we're not. That's really encouraging. If Austin still looks good over the next week, that's a really great sign. 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Travis County saw the biggest day in 10-19 since Mind July with 48 cases and a whopping 39.02% share of daily cases (there were 123 cases yesterday (high for a Sunday)).

A number of private schools in Austin went to in person schooling this past week so I am wondering if that is what we are seeing (along with Freshmen at UT).

Nice low numbers in the 60+ categories which will help with hospitalizations as well the combined 10-19 & 20 - 29 being ~73% of all cases yesterday (vs their normal share of ~34%). 10 new admits in hospital yesterday for those of you holding out hopes AISD plays fall sports.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/13 vs 9/12	0	3	48	42	10	7	8	3	1	1	123
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.44%	39.02%	34.15%	8.13%	5.69%	6.50%	2.44%	0.81%	0.81%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.95%	8.55%	26.77%	21.35%	16.28%	11.47%	6.53%	3.22%	2.36%	27,701

[atomheartbevo 89771]

We saw 95 UT students trying to attend the football game, test positive.  That could have spiked yesterday.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Good news on mortality for Travis County. They finally unborked their mortality tracker (had been pointing to single gender vs all across multiple categories).

Still seeing ~82% of all deaths from 60 years old and up. Encouraging thing is the last two weeks we have only seen 22 deaths in total which is down by ~50% from prior couple of weeks and even more than that from Mid July onwards. All in all things are moving in right direction. Mortality rates are improving even at the 80yo+ levels (down below 20% for 1st time in a long time)

Kids still VERY unlikely to die from this disease. 0% for 1-9 & 0.04% for 10-19 (since March for Travis County). Again there is gap between 8/29 & 9/12 due to TCAD issues. Any numbers for 9/12 are over a 2 week period vs 1 week.

	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total Deaths	WoW Change
W/E 7/11	0	3	4	7	17	34	45	58	168
W/E 7/18	0	2	4	9	21	37	55	75	203	35
W/E 7/25	0	2	4	10	27	47	58	93	241	38
W/E 8/1	0	2	6	11	35	56	63	103	276	35
W/E 8/8	1	2	6	11	36	64	65	113	298	22
W/E 8/15	1	2	6	13	39	74	77	124	336	38
W/E 8/22	1	2	6	14	43	78	84	130	358	22
W/E 8/29	1	2	7	14	46	80	93	138	381	23
W/E 9/12	1	2	7	15	47	88	98	145	403	22
Total Cases as of 9/12	2,321	7,374	5,903	4,502	3,170	1,807	890	654
Mortality Rate as of 9/12	0.04%	0.03%	0.10%	0.31%	1.36%	4.32%	9.44%	19.88%

[texasdago 7576]

"Barton Creek spillway, aka “Barking Springs.” now open

 

ha... anyone seen it lately?  Its been open.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Another really good day for Travis County yesterday with 75 cases. Couple of fallouts in the <1 & >80 cohorts (this is happening weekly now as TCAD changes numbers fairly regularly). Again seeing over representation in the 10-19 age group compared to their normal share of cases. 11 new admits yesterday (10 the day prior).

Good news based on symptom timelines. Outside of that one bump back to 218 cases four days ago there doesn't appear to be a spike related to Labor Day.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/14 vs 9/13	-1	3	12	15	10	16	14	7	0	-1	75
% of Daily Change	-1.33%	4.00%	16.00%	20.00%	13.33%	21.33%	18.67%	9.33%	0.00%	-1.33%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.95%	8.57%	26.75%	21.32%	16.29%	11.49%	6.54%	3.21%	2.35%	27,776

[Neonmoon 38130]

Good. Austin seems to have things going in the right direction. I even think we’re getting past the potential labor day spike right? Anyway. Good job everyone. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Good. Austin seems to have things going in the right direction. I even think we’re getting past the potential labor day spike right? Anyway. Good job everyone. 

Hospital admits take around 10 days or so based off the past but I'd think we'd be seeing a little bit of an uptick already. If we stay flat through the weekend then there is no labor day spike. I'm optimistic.

 

At some point we've got to open things back up with the mask mandate still in place and enforced. Not only just because living life is good for people, but because we're going to end up with a lot of people already on the tipping point of being "over" the covid thing thinking it's nothing but a boy who cried wolf situation. I can't think of much reason to not open things pretty quickly if we stay flat, outside of political motivations.

 

Restaurants bars and gyms didn't spike it. Labor day didn't spike it. School didn't spike it. Let's keep masks on and live life, with the caveat that we'll act fast to ramp restrictions back up if the numbers turn bad.

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020

But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.

[Hate 20130]

This all hit a little to close recently. My wife works at an elementary school and came home not feeling well yesterday. The school district contacted her and arranged a COVID test for her yesterday afternoon which was negative. A lady she works with on a regular basis also was tested and she was positive and also now has pneumonia.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Big day yesterday (189) for Travis county but still in the unofficial BrazilHorn 100-200 Buoyancy Range. that we have seemed to have moved into the past two weeks.

Very large uptick in the 10-19 cases with a whopping 30.27% of yesterday's numbers being in this range. (~3.7x their normal share of cases). Many private schools started in person last week so this could be rearing its head now. One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June. One positive side effect of the new cases skewing younger is that these folks by and large don't end up in the hospital. Around half of the normal case load yesterday came from 60+ groups which bodes well for deaths down the line.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/15 vs 9/14	1	5	56	58	29	10	17	6	3	0	185
% of Daily Change	0.54%	2.70%	30.27%	31.35%	15.68%	5.41%	9.19%	3.24%	1.62%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.95%	8.72%	26.78%	21.29%	16.22%	11.48%	6.52%	3.20%	2.34%	27,961

 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

12 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020

But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.

This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.

[Neonmoon 38130]

12 hours ago, Hate said:

This all hit a little to close recently. My wife works at an elementary school and came home not feeling well yesterday. The school district contacted her and arranged a COVID test for her yesterday afternoon which was negative. A lady she works with on a regular basis also was tested and she was positive and also now has pneumonia.

Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

13 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June

[utee94 15841]

10 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.

Yup.

As I've pointed out before, our healthcare processes and legacy IT systems were never designed to report this type of data in real time.  The fact that municipalities, counties, and states are attempting to use this data as a metric to make real-time decisions with significant social and economic impacts, is a problem.  And it's a problem that can't and won't go away in the next 18-24 months.

But maybe we'll be better prepared for the next one...

[Hate 20130]

Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

Thanks, I appreciate it. The person that gave the test said they only have false positives. She said that if the test is negative then you absolutely positively do not have it, so that was good to hear.

 

I honestly think it is just bad allergies as the tree and ragweed pollens have gone through the roof in our area. The person that actually performed the swan test even asked her is she has allergies when they swabbed as they could see the inflammation in her nose.

[bschoolprof 6271]

After declining steadily for some time, rona hospitalizations at the med center in Houston have started to plateau, but not quite at Mayish levels.  Not great, not terrible, like 3.6 roentgen 

[bschoolprof 6271]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

From what I am reading (conspiracy sites like the NYT), the biggest issue with tests now is false positives - they do so many "cycles" to test for fragments of the virus, that we may not be picking up "real" and/or active infections.  

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

But maybe we'll be better prepared for the next one...

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

6 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Not great, not terrible, like 3.6 roentgen 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Travis County yesterday at 142 cases so well within the 100-200 "new normal". One thing that is becoming really obvious is that the 10-19 age group is spiking. I know St. Andrews/Hyde Park etc are back in person as of a couple of weeks ago so I am assuming that this is a driver. The last two days of case count in this group is the biggest two day stretch to date and this group is on a 7 day run of being well over their normal share of cases. Good news is this should reduce hospitalization rate which should drop admits down. If you have kids in this age group (I have two) -  make sure they are wearing masks & washing hands.  (just checked only 5 admits yesterday)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/16 vs 9/15	0	2	57	33	18	12	10	3	3	4	142
% of Daily Change	0.00%	1.41%	40.14%	23.24%	12.68%	8.45%	7.04%	2.11%	2.11%	2.82%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.94%	8.87%	26.77%	21.24%	16.18%	11.45%	6.50%	3.19%	2.34%	28,103

Edited September 17, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[atomheartbevo 89771]

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-group-of-state-officials-to-hold-covid-19-press-conference-at-12-p-m-thursday/
 

Quote

Businesses across much of Texas will be allowed to expand capacity restrictions starting as early as Sept. 21, Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday.

For the state’s 19 hospital regions where coronavirus hospitalizations are less than 15% industries that were limited to 50% capacity may now expand to 75% capacity starting Sept. 21, including all retail stores, all restaurants, all office buildings, all manufacturing, all museums and libraries, and all gyms.

Hospitals in those regions may return to ordinary elective surgical procedures immediately, Abbott also stated.

Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:

Quote

Starting Sept. 24, Abbott said all nursing home facilities, assisted living centers, state supported living centers, and other long-term care facilities are allowed to reopen for visitation, providing that they comply with certain health protocols and there must not be a COVID-19 outbreak in the facility. All of those facilities are now allowed to offer essential caregiver visits, he said.

Quote

Abbott indicated bars are nationally recognized as COVID-19 spreading locations, and will not be allowed to reopen at this time. He acknowledged that the state is focused on finding ways to get them open, and leaders have been working with bar owners and associations on methods of reopening.

Quote

Abbott said the metric he’s relying most heavily on is hospitalizations. Medical experts have warned about increased spread in regions where 15% or more of hospitalizations are coronavirus-related.

“Hospitalizations is the most important information about the severity of COVID-19 in any particular region,” Gov. Abbott said. “It is also the most accurate information available on a regular basis.”

If a region experiences less than 15% of all hospitalizations being coronavirus-related for seven consecutive days, then the region is safe enough to allow additional openings, Abbott said.

All Texas regions, except Victoria, Laredo and the Lower Rio Grande Valley have COVID-19 hospitalizations less than 15%, according to data provided by the Governor’s office.

Quote

Texas is scheduled to receive millions of 15-minute tests per month that will more quickly notify people if they are infected with COVID-19.

The biggest reason for the improvements in Texas, doctors advised Abbott, is because Texans are taking COVID-19 seriously. The best practices that leaders have put in place, including social distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing, are the best defense against the virus until vaccines are available.

Some interesting things:

• fuck you bars
• nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
• wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
• the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics 
• they are following hospitalizations as an indicator

Edited September 17, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[BrazilHorn 6628]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-group-of-state-officials-to-hold-covid-19-press-conference-at-12-p-m-thursday/
 

Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:

Some interesting things:

• fuck you bars
• nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
• wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
• the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics 
• they are following hospitalizations as an indicator

I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.

Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.

[Brisketexan 105192]

6 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.

Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.

This.  I don't have any major problems with this approach.  We just need to follow the numbers, particularly hospitalizations, closely.

[Shaggybevo 353]

Abbott's decision today makes sense.   After all, if the experts in the Big 10 tell us the science says it's safe to play football, why can't I go to a restaurant?

[PantsTent 2002]

I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits.  Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?

 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

18 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits.  Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?

 

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)

You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).

edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th

Edited September 17, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

Monday morning I fully expect Abbott to say "Alright y'all, the last reopening/expansion looks to be going well, so let's open up bars as well."

[texasdago 7576]

I'm amazed how people people are hospitalized in Austin vs some other cities.  Really seem to have gotten it under control.

[PantsTent 2002]

58 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)

You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).

edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th

It's worded as % of total hospitalized so 94/2549 or 3.7%.  But that would mean if we hover around 2600 total hospitalized, then 15% would allow up to 390 COVID paintents, which July type numbers.  I'm glad we're looking at hospital metrics instead of some stupid number of cases or % positive.  Just trying to gauge where we have been on this metric.  Seems like June/August numbers are ok and July is not.

[dcar00 14321]

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

[Brisketexan 105192]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

Yeah, I can see that.  Of course, from my perspective as a parent of a high schooler, him NOT having the freedom to get up and do something else would be helpful.  Focus is a challenge.

[atomheartbevo 89771]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.

to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

Probably depends on grade and district - here in AISD, both my pre-K and 2nd-grader are going to have actual instruction.   There will be a teacher and possibly TA dedicated to the online/home kids, but in-person they get regular instruction, just behind little shields, and with extra hand washing.  We've already discussed it with the teachers.  If they are going to just sit there on Zoom, then we will bring them home.

Edited September 17, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

I'm amazed how people people are hospitalized in Austin vs some other cities.  Really seem to have gotten it under control.

I'm not. Austin has almost universal mask adoption as well as social pressure to wear them for those who want to try to buck the system.

[dcar00 14321]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, I can see that.  Of course, from my perspective as a parent of a high schooler, him NOT having the freedom to get up and do something else would be helpful.  Focus is a challenge.

agreed. from what I hear they go to one classroom and don't go to another classroom so they are in the classroom all day doing zoom whether the teacher in that class is doing zoom for them or not.  my 2 are in college so it isn't first hand but 2 close friends who told me the same story.

sitting at one desk all day in a school classroom is going to get real boring real fast for a middle schooler.  this is RRISD BTW.

both kids said if I'm going to just sit and watch zoom I'd rather do it at home.

Elementary is probably better because kids might be used to being in one classroom for more of the day and elementary schools might  have more TA's to help.

I understand the concern of the teachers and the parents.  there really is no good option unless teachers/coaches/etc. are willing to take the risk. I think the risk is low(assuming the teacher is sub 40 and healthy) given the data but then again I'm not a teacher.

[dcar00 14321]

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

I'm amazed how people people are hospitalized in Austin vs some other cities.  Really seem to have gotten it under control.

the employers being hi tech, govt, and university helps.  lots of work from home.

[Brisketexan 105192]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agreed. from what I hear they go to one classroom and don't go to another classroom so they are in the classroom all day doing zoom whether the teacher in that class is doing zoom for them or not.  my 2 are in college so it isn't first hand but 2 close friends who told me the same story.

sitting at one desk all day in a school classroom is going to get real boring real fast for a middle schooler.  this is RRISD BTW.

both kids said if I'm going to just sit and watch zoom I'd rather do it at home.

Elementary is probably better because kids might be used to being in one classroom for more of the day and elementary schools might  have more TA's to help.

I understand the concern of the teachers and the parents.  there really is no good option unless teachers/coaches/etc. are willing to take the risk. I think the risk is low(assuming the teacher is sub 40 and healthy) given the data but then again I'm not a teacher.

Yeah, my son's high school (private) is hybrid, with I think around 1/3 of the kids in person thus far.  All but one of his teachers is in the classroom -- one of them is staying remote because of personal health risks.  

I just think there's some value in a routine of getting up and going someplace other than his room, which is a cave, and being forced to be in a "school" environment.  Not to mention even the little bit of social connection he can have by being around some other students.  He's a bit of an introvert, so social interaction that happens around him is important.  We're working on his path to get back to the classroom.

[dcar00 14321]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, my son's high school (private) is hybrid, with I think around 1/3 of the kids in person thus far.  All but one of his teachers is in the classroom -- one of them is staying remote because of personal health risks.  

I just think there's some value in a routine of getting up and going someplace other than his room, which is a cave, and being forced to be in a "school" environment.  Not to mention even the little bit of social connection he can have by being around some other students.  He's a bit of an introvert, so social interaction that happens around him is important.  We're working on his path to get back to the classroom.

agreed on both of these. get the fuck up and make your bed..ha. its actually hurting my daughter at UT.  sitting in a dorm too much and they are pushing close to zero interaction, hanging out at the dorm.  we are going to have to get moving because the mental part of this for kids is not good.   son is different, 10 feet tall and bullet proof.

[bolverk 29705]

FYI for the parents:

DSHS & TEA are now releasing a weekly statewide case count for on-campus students and staff. It's not really helpful at this point, but a note at the bottom of the page says they'll start posting ISD figures in an Excel spreadsheet beginning 9/23.

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/schools/texas-education-agency/

[Brisketexan 105192]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agreed on both of these. get the fuck up and make your bed..ha. its actually hurting my daughter at UT.  sitting in a dorm too much and they are pushing close to zero interaction, hanging out at the dorm.  we are going to have to get moving because the mental part of this for kids is not good.   son is different, 10 feet tall and bullet proof.

Yeah, very lucky it's my daughter's sophomore year, and she's in an apartment with roommates, in an active neighborhood, and has several other friendgroups living nearby.  They get to get out and about, socialize, etc.  No huge parties (she actually left a party last Friday when the crowd got up to 30), but a relatively normal existence, with movement and a schedule.  It's helpful.  Really, for those of us fortunate enough to be able to truck along financially relatively okay, the mental health beating has been the worst.  And it's uniform -- everyone we know is on the struggle bus in some respect.

[bschoolprof 6271]

the problem I am hearing is kids will go back to in school but the teacher is basically in the corner doing the zoom and the kids in the class are looking at their computers watching the zoom anyway and they can't leave.  kids have decided to come back home where they have the freedom to get up and do something if needed.
to be clear this is middle school and high school age.  so maybe elementary is different.

This has been our experience. Middle son bailed on in person middle school because it was basically a 20 minute bus ride to sit on zoom calls. The teaching is centered around virtual students, so there’s no learning (or much social) advantage to going in person.

My youngest loves in person elementary however because his teacher has a fully in person class.

Dual modality teaching caters to online students, at least in our district.

[Bevo 13592]

I haven't been keeping up with the numbers lately. Have we had an outbreak post Labor Day?

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

It will stay at about this level until a vaccine is released. Many 100s of pages back, I anticipated an attenuated sine wave like decrease in numbers. I'm hopeful that we might even improve upon that.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16	0	6	15	32	21	14	5	3	6	7	109
% of Daily Change	0.00%	5.50%	13.76%	29.36%	19.27%	12.84%	4.59%	2.75%	5.50%	6.42%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.95%	8.89%	26.78%	21.24%	16.17%	11.43%	6.48%	3.20%	2.36%	28,212

[utee94 15841]

17 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16	0	6	15	32	21	14	5	3	6	7	109
% of Daily Change	0.00%	5.50%	13.76%	29.36%	19.27%	12.84%	4.59%	2.75%	5.50%	6.42%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.95%	8.89%	26.78%	21.24%	16.17%	11.43%	6.48%	3.20%	2.36%	28,212

I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers?  Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?

 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers?  Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?

 

the 78705 zip code shows 618 cases total and this largely encompasses UT (obviously some students can and do live of campus). From 8/30 - 9/12 UT reports that 127 students/faculty/staff tested positive via on campus testing. From the 10-19 & 20-29 age groups for that same period Travis county had an increase in 507 cases. Part of challenge is that UT did a big dump of positive cases via Austin Public Health dump to them and added them in so numbers get murky as if you look at their by day data you will see much larger spikes in count vs what they had on campus.

So short answer long, I believe it is included, but also if person has a different home address then UT it is possible it counts against their count.

[ABSR 5321]

19 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

This has been our experience. Middle son bailed on in person middle school because it was basically a 20 minute bus ride to sit on zoom calls. The teaching is centered around virtual students, so there’s no learning (or much social) advantage to going in person.

My youngest loves in person elementary however because his teacher has a fully in person class.

Dual modality teaching caters to online students, at least in our district.

I would say the opposite is true for our Dual modality teaching.   I think it has improved but the first week the virtual kids had trouble hearing teachers (not speaking into the microphone - which is new) and not seeing them virtually raise hands, etc.    Good thing about duality is that if kids need to change or decide to change then it is same teacher, curriculum, etc and they just transition from virtual to in-person or vice versa. (There are restrictions on when/how/who can transition).

My kids are in person and I think in general it is going well.  Clear plastic barriers by teachers desk, everyone wearing masks and teachers also with clear plastic face masks also.  Lunch tables with limited seating and lunches pre-ordered and prepackaged so limited standing in line.  We have had some COVID positives from kids and a few teachers, but not generally very high.   The contact tracing protocol seems like over kill as we had a teach test positive, and while she had mask, clear shield and plastic barrier on desk they told all kids from first row they had to do 14 day quarantine.   

[Skipper 6176]

16 hours ago, Bevo said:

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

I think any spike would just be starting to materialize.  I won't feel confident about it for another couple of weeks at least.