COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6576]

17 hours ago, Bevo said:

I haven't been keeping up with the numbers lately. Have we had an outbreak post Labor Day?

I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

It will stay at about this level until a vaccine is released. Many 100s of pages back, I anticipated an attenuated sine wave like decrease in numbers. I'm hopeful that we might even improve upon that.

We have not had a material increase in cases since Labor Day (speaking for Travis County). In addition a heavier % of cases since Labor Day were from the 10-19 & 20-29 year old age groups which bode well for hospitalizations down the line. There was one day of >200 cases (but also 4 <100) since Labor Day but if you are thinking spike a la early July when shit hit the fan, nothing close to it.

Need another week to go and want to keep tracking hospitalizations but all in all it looks like Labor Day thus far has been a non-event.

[Skipper 6103]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

 

Need another week to go and want to keep tracking hospitalizations but all in all it looks like Labor Day thus far has been a non-event.

For Dallas we saw the first "oh shit" spike in hospitalization data for week ending 6/13 (about 2.5 weeks after Memorial Day).  But we didn't really see that manifest until the report released on 6/20 which then was further solidified by additional numbers as of 6/23 and then it was off to the races.    So in theory we could certainly be having current rapid spread that won't show up in the numbers for a week or 2.  I hope not but certainly plausible.

[Hate 20103]

So two weeks?

[Anastasis 23394]

20 new admissions in ATX.

Not good bob.  Going the wrong direction. 

[Texas Jeff 1932]

The 7 day average for Travis County bottomed out on Sept 3rd at about 70 cases/day.  From there it's rebounded to around 110-120 cases/day.  Not out of control, but defiantly a rise.

Travis County added something to their dashboard to tell you which zip code had the most cases over the past 7, 14, and 28 days.  Right now, 78705 (around UT) is winning all categories.

UT is testing the crap out of their population and contact tracing.  Kids are getting notified when someone close to them in a dorm has it.  Hopefully the Travis County rise is just a result of UT starting the semester combined with a few others getting it through daycares and schools, and not the start of another big outbreak.

Statewide, the testing is depressingly flat or even declining.  Those simple, quick, cheap, less painful tests can't get here fast enough.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

20 new admissions in ATX.

Not good bob.  Going the wrong direction. 

Ah man. I hope I didn't early-celebrate jinx the no Labor Day spike thing.

Edited September 19, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89416]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

20 new admissions in ATX.

Not good bob.  Going the wrong direction. 

We've still got some time.  AISD opens up to in-person classes at 25% capacity on October 5th, and then I think it's two weeks later they move to 50% if things go well.  So basically a month out.

And from the informal polling of parents from both of my kid's classes, I'm thinking only 50-60% are willing to go in-person right now, which means there's enough room for my kids.

Can't come soon enough, this is me currently during the weekdays between 7:50am and 3pm:

This will be me if my kids are still home come the middle of October

[atomheartbevo 89416]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Ah man. I hope I didn't early-celebrate jinx the no Labor Day spike thing.

That concerns me a bit - If only say 200 people caught it on Labor Day, yay!

But if those 200 people each spread it on average to 3-4 people over the following two weeks, boo!

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

 

[bschoolprof 6232]

Those are back to Aprilish levels IIRC.  

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

160 cases yesterday in Travis County. ~4x more cases in the 10-19 range than normal load. 70+ groups are above their normal daily share as well. 20 hospital admits yesterday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/18 vs 9/17	1	3	39	44	24	11	11	10	10	7	160
% of Daily Change	0.63%	1.88%	24.38%	27.50%	15.00%	6.88%	6.88%	6.25%	6.25%	4.38%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.94%	8.98%	26.78%	21.20%	16.11%	11.40%	6.48%	3.22%	2.37%	28,372

[BradInATX 9208]

Those are back to Aprilish levels IIRC.  

"I can either do 10 actual seconds of googling and see that we're at mid-June levels, or just say dumb shit based on nothing."

 

 

"Dumb shit. Let's go with the dumb shit. Good work bschoolprof! You did it!"

 

[bschoolprof 6232]

29 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

"I can either do 10 actual seconds of googling and see that we're at mid-June levels, or just say dumb shit based on nothing."

 

 

"Dumb shit. Let's go with the dumb shit. Good work bschoolprof! You did it!"

 

Spent 10 seconds googling.  7 day moving average of hospitalizations was 79.9 on 4/29/20.  On 6/15/20, it was 117.  

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89416]

4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

20 hospital admits yesterday.

[BradInATX 9208]

Spent 10 seconds googling.  7 day moving average of hospitalizations was 79.9 on 4/29/20.  On 6/15/20, it was 117.  
 
 
 

Fair. I'm looking at Austin. Mea culpa.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

60 cases yesterday for Travis County. Still trending higher on % basis for the 10-19 age group. Otherwise all in all a solid day for ye olde Travis County.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/19 vs 9/18	-2	2	14	14	11	6	9	4	2	0	60
% of Daily Change	-3.33%	3.33%	23.33%	23.33%	18.33%	10.00%	15.00%	6.67%	3.33%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.94%	9.01%	26.77%	21.19%	16.10%	11.41%	6.48%	3.22%	2.36%	28,432

good news on admits front. Only 9 for Travis County yesterday.

[elfenix 34171]

This is a tough read:

Quote

A Houston doctor died early Saturday after fighting for her life in an intensive care unit since becoming infected with COVID-19 in July, according to a statement from her family.

 

 

Adeline Fagan, a 28-year-old New York native who was completing her second year of residency as an OB-GYN in Houston, tested positive for the infection in early July before her condition worsened and she became hospitalized. By mid-August, she had been on a ventilator and ECMO machine for about two weeks and she was expected to remain on a ventilator for about six more weeks.

Fagan’s father, Brant, confirmed her death in a statement posted Saturday atop of a fundraiser page initially organized to help her pay her medical and travel expenses as well as other bills. The statement had a time stamp of 4:24 a.m.

“The time the world stopped for a moment and will never be the same,” Brant wrote. “Our beautiful daughter, sister, friend, physician, Adeline Marie Fagan, MD passed away.”

Fagan was doing well in recent weeks, according to the statement. But about half an hour after receiving a good report on her condition at 10 p.m. Friday, her family received a call. They had to decide whether to perform a procedure that would relieve pressure of a massive brain bleed. A nurse who entered Fagan’s room for a routine task noticed she was not responsive. Hospital staff rushed to perform a CT scan to see the extent of the damage.

A neurosurgeon told the family there was a “1 in a million” chance Fagan would survive the procedure. And if she did, she would have several severe cognitive and sensory limitations.


“We spent the remaining minutes hugging, comforting, and talking to Adeline,” the statement read. “And then the world stopped.”

Brant thanked everyone who supported Fagan and her family over the last couple of weeks.

“Even in this darkest of times, there are good people willing to share a piece of themselves for the sake of another,” Brant wrote. “If you can do one thing, be an ‘Adeline’ in the world. Be passionate about helping others less fortunate, have a smile on your face, a laugh in your heart, and a Disney tune on your lips.”

Fagan became one of the latest casualties in the coronavirus pandemic that has already killed about 200,000 people in the United Sates. In the Houston region, 3,317 people have died as of Saturday.

Fagan’s primary task at a Houston hospital was delivering babies, but she had also treated COVID-19 patients. On July 8, she started a 12-hour shift with excitement before her body and head started aching. Her younger sisters, Maureen and Natalie, previously said her story presented a cautionary tale.

“We would like people to understand the gravity of the situation,” Natalie told The Chronicle last month. “There are many people out there who do not think they’ll get sick. But the fact of the matter is Adeline’s story is a universal one right now. We could be Adeline. So taking every precaution can protect yourself and your neighbor. Wear a mask, social distance, stay home if possible. You don’t have go through what Adeline is going through.”

Fagan wanted to be a doctor since she was a little girl with a toy stethoscope. She was a graduate of University at Buffalo medical school.

On Saturday night, Houston police Chief Art Acevedo called Fagan’s death “heart wrenching.”

“Prayers to her, her family, her friends and her colleagues. May God comfort them all and protect us all,” Acevedo said in a tweet.

alejandro.serrano@chron.com

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Young-Houston-doctor-dies-after-fighting-for-her-15581069.php

Edited September 20, 2020 by elfenix

[Hefeweizen 5307]

3 minutes ago, elfenix said:

This is a tough read:

Thanks for posting.  That is a gut punch.

[Anastasis 23394]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

This is a tough read:

Heart breaking. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

I am not going to post the breakdown by age for yesterday as for Travis County there were only 9 cases. That is awesome! Makes me nervous though for a Tuesday big "treu-up"

In terms of hospital admits there were 15. Not great but not in the range to be too freaked out about.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here is mortality data for Travis County through 9/19. ~82% of all deaths are from those 60+. There were only 12 deaths last week which is the lowest WoW change in past 10 weeks. If you are over 80, you have ~20% chance of dying if you catch CV19, stay home and discourage your kids/grandkids from seeing you. Just wire them the private school money vs dropping it off in person.

10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total Deaths WoW Change W/E 7/11 0 3 4 7 17 34 45 58 168   W/E 7/18 0 2 4 9 21 37 55 75 203 35 W/E 7/25 0 2 4 10 27 47 58 93 241 38 W/E 8/1 0 2 6 11 35 56 63 103 276 35 W/E 8/8 1 2 6 11 36 64 65 113 298 22 W/E 8/15 1 2 6 13 39 74 77 124 336 38 W/E 8/22 1 2 6 14 43 78 84 130 358 22 W/E 8/29 1 2 7 14 46 80 93 138 381 23 W/E 9/12 1 2 7 15 47 88 98 145 403 22 W/E 9/19 1 3 7 15 49 88 101 151 415 12 Mortality Rate as of 9/19 0.04% 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.33% 4.23% 9.17% 19.35%     Share of Total Deaths as of 9/19 0.24% 0.72% 1.69% 3.61% 11.81% 21.20% 24.34% 36.39%

[Anastasis 23394]

Texas fatality progress vs. others.

 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Texas fatality progress vs. others.
 

 

The (new highs) are pretty misleading vs other states with actual people. North Dakota could see 10 deaths for a 7 day span and their numbers would sky rocket

[BrazilHorn 6576]

23 new admits yesterday (highest day since Sept 3rd (26)). Cases yesterday were well within the "new normal" 100-200 cases/day range, clocking in at 148 for Travis County.

Heavily consolidated in the 10 - 19 & 20 - 29 age groups with these two groups accounting for ~60% of all cases (vs ~35% of their share overall since March)

The 10 -19 cohort has been on fire lately. On August 1st they represented 7.71% of all CV19 cases in Travis County. As of yesterday they now account for 9.14%.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/21 vs 9/20	0	8	47	42	20	16	6	3	3	3	148
% of Daily Change	0.00%	5.41%	31.76%	28.38%	13.51%	10.81%	4.05%	2.03%	2.03%	2.03%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	9.14%	26.77%	21.15%	16.08%	11.37%	6.46%	3.21%	2.36%	28,589

[Anastasis 23394]

ATX with 47 new cases, 17 new admissions. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Yeah, we've got a bit of upward movement on the 7-day hospitalization average. I think it was a bit optimistic to not expect any uptick from Labor Day weekend. Let's hope it's just a little wobble and not a new trend. I'm hopeful. We're now two full weeks from the end of Labor Day weekend. So what we're seeing on the charts should cover most of the primary spread from Labor Day. We'll see what the secondary spread looks like over the next couple of weeks.

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by BradInATX

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Low case count for  Travis County yesterday with only 54 total cases. For first time in a couple of weeks the 10-19 cohort's contribution to the daily case load was lower than the overall to date contribution.

In standard Travis County reporting news the <1 age group went down a case. No idea why this happens as often as it does.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/22 vs 9/21	-1	2	2	15	13	3	10	6	1	3	54
% of Daily Change	-1.85%	3.70%	3.70%	27.78%	24.07%	5.56%	18.52%	11.11%	1.85%	5.56%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	9.13%	26.77%	21.16%	16.06%	11.38%	6.47%	3.21%	2.37%	28,643

[dcar00 14035]

so I guess I missed Sunday.  1point3 is saying Texas had almost 17K cases?

[Neonmoon 38127]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Low case count for  Travis County yesterday with only 54 total cases. For first time in a couple of weeks the 10-19 cohort's contribution to the daily case load was lower than the overall to date contribution.

In standard Travis County reporting news the <1 age group went down a case. No idea why this happens as often as it does.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/22 vs 9/21	-1	2	2	15	13	3	10	6	1	3	54
% of Daily Change	-1.85%	3.70%	3.70%	27.78%	24.07%	5.56%	18.52%	11.11%	1.85%	5.56%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	9.13%	26.77%	21.16%	16.06%	11.38%	6.47%	3.21%	2.37%	28,643

Thank you everyone for wearing masks. 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Thank you everyone for wearing masks. 

Thank you everyone for not licking bannisters.

[Guest Lobo]

^ Except for that time you licked floyd.  

[BrazilHorn 6576]

notch over 100 cases in Travis County yesterday primarily in the younger age groups (which should bode well for deaths/hospitalizations) ~75% of yesterday's cases where from folks <30.(compared to ~51% overall). There were 9 new hospital admits yesterday marking a steady drop over past couple of days from the 23 admits on 9/21 (9/22 as 17)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/23 vs 9/22	1	3	21	38	11	11	10	5	2	0	102
% of Daily Change	0.98%	2.94%	20.59%	37.25%	10.78%	10.78%	9.80%	4.90%	1.96%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.96%	9.17%	26.81%	21.12%	16.04%	11.38%	6.46%	3.21%	2.36%	28,745

[atomheartbevo 89416]

Company doing vaccine trials in Austin is looking for an ethnically diverse group of participants.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-trial-in-austin-looking-for-ethnically-diverse-set-of-participants/

[Js1 85104]

42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Company doing vaccine trials in Austin is looking for an ethnically diverse group of participants.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-trial-in-austin-looking-for-ethnically-diverse-set-of-participants/

[South Austin 52143]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh come on.  We have some Asians now.  And some Indians. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

16 hours ago, slorch said:

Thank you everyone for not licking bannisters.

*Barristers. 

[dcar00 14035]

50 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Oh come on.  We have some Asians now.  And some Indians. 

apparently you are new here.  thats not ethnically diverse...

[Neonmoon 38127]

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

apparently you are new here.  thats not ethnically diverse...

d

[El Diablo 4232]

I consider myself to be ethically diverse.

Oh, never mind.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

*Barristers. 

I don’t go to Starbucks 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

159 cases in Travis County yesterday, largely in the 20 to 49 groups. Folks >60 are below their normal contribution which from a deaths perspective is a positive.

20 hospital admits yesterday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/24 vs 9/23	0	1	12	60	27	22	18	11	6	2	159
% of Daily Change	0.00%	0.63%	7.55%	37.74%	16.98%	13.84%	11.32%	6.92%	3.77%	1.26%
% of Total Cases	0.49%	2.94%	9.16%	26.87%	21.10%	16.03%	11.38%	6.47%	3.21%	2.35%	28,904

[wood 11131]

Just got an email from AISD saying Bowie H.S. in Austin just reported its first positive Covid test. SIAP...

[Message Board User 12389]

Positivity rate of less than 1% over the last 2 weeks at the 40 acres.

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

 

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

13 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

159 cases in Travis County yesterday, largely in the 20 to 49 groups. Folks >60 are below their normal contribution which from a deaths perspective is a positive.

20 hospital admits yesterday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 9/24 vs 9/23	0	1	12	60	27	22	18	11	6	2	159
% of Daily Change	0.00%	0.63%	7.55%	37.74%	16.98%	13.84%	11.32%	6.92%	3.77%	1.26%
% of Total Cases	0.49%	2.94%	9.16%	26.87%	21.10%	16.03%	11.38%	6.47%	3.21%	2.35%	28,904

What’s the hospital admit 7 day average? Hopefully still down, right?

[Texas Jeff 1932]

10 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

What’s the hospital admit 7 day average? Hopefully still down, right?

In Austin, It's 15 as of today, up from a local minimum of about 12 a week ago.  Pretty stable between 12-20 over the last month:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

Texas as a whole has flattened out.  Not going up but no longer going down.

[MissingInAction 24814]

Reopen errrrthang! Woooooo!

[South Austin 52143]

It’s remarkable how much my behavior has changed in a month, after being at the more cautious end of the COVID spectrum.

My 4th-grade son is in a pod with three other boys facilitated by a UT grad student, and they rotate each week at a different house.

My 9th-grade daughter has her own pod with two other girls. They only meet Friday afternoons to do their asynchronous work, and they rotate each week at a different house, with a sleepover that Friday night.

Last weekend I went to two restaurants — all outdoors — and watched some NFL football Sunday afternoon at Woodrow’s on Burnet.

Maybe this isn’t all that crazy compared to other folks on this thread. But these interactions for my kids and me have been food for the soul, and I didn’t realize how fucking great it would feel to experience some amount of normalcy.

I’m still wearing a mask everywhere I go, and haven’t had any indoor dinner parties with friends. But the last few weeks have been a realization for me that I had to break from the pandemic prison and start moving toward a somewhat normal life again.

[Armybrat 40735]

Still gettin’ laid on a regular basis?

[South Austin 52143]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

Still gettin’ laid on a regular basis?

Every chance I get, pops.