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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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utee94

utee94 15745

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We're going to be fucked come cedar fever season.

Yeah no doubt.  I think that's going to be a much bigger problem than flu season will be.  The same practices that limit infection by COVID, also limit infection by the flu.

But cedar pollen is ubiquitous and produces many of the same symptoms.  Gonna be a little bit of a trainwreck determining who is actually sick, and who has allergies.

 

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

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safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
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57 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah no doubt.  I think that's going to be a much bigger problem than flu season will be.  The same practices that limit infection by COVID, also limit infection by the flu.

But cedar pollen is ubiquitous and produces many of the same symptoms.  Gonna be a little bit of a trainwreck determining who is actually sick, and who has allergies.

The sore throat/cough from that alone is going to be a shitshow.

Allergy doctors about to make a lot of money helping people avoid those symptoms.

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The sore throat/cough from that alone is going to be a shitshow.

Allergy doctors about to make a lot of money helping people avoid those symptoms.

 

7 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, the fall allergies are running rampant in my home because we spend as much time as possible either outside or with the windows open...so we're all sneezing and sounding phlegmy.  one of the girls and the wife are especially susceptible to Ragweed so we chalked it up to that.  I'm a chronic throat clearer due to an UGI issue so the mornings, I sound especially bad.  After several months, the wife has finally realized that not every morning means I have Covid-19.  In fact, it's when I don't cough and clear before 10:00am, that we should be worried.  It's gonna be especially bad when cold/flu season starts around the kids in another 6 weeks or so.  

The virus was polite enough to leave behind one calling card symbol though, the loss of sense of smell/taste.  That's pretty unique by itself, if you experience it with any of the other usual symptoms---it's actually a decent predictor of things.  Not to be confused with the Grateful Dead symptoms relating to smell/taste where listeners claim to be smelling music and tasting colors.  

 

Everytime I think "Uh oh-- could today be the 'Rona?", I go and eat something or drink something with distinct taste and make sure I can register it. Then it's anxiety-free mediocre health, baby.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Posted

Travis still looking really good with the 7 day new case average of 73 and new hospital admits yesterday of 9. Cases on older end (60+) remain below their normal contribution as well which is a positive sign for future deaths.

Things are looking solid as of now.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/5 vs 10/4 0 3 4 22 4 11 10 3 2 -1 58
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.17% 6.90% 37.93% 6.90% 18.97% 17.24% 5.17% 3.45% -1.72%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.87% 9.36% 26.94% 20.98% 15.97% 11.38% 6.43% 3.21% 2.32%   29,857
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TornACL

TornACL 7675

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, drt said:

Goddamnit. Why can’t we give it a few weeks after in person school restarts just to see how it goes?  Is it really so crucial to reopen bars right now?

Bars are already all basically open now anyway. At least near me in FW, they've all figured out how to legally work through the loopholes (serve food, etc).

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Hate

Hate 20103

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I finally went out this past weekend to a restaurant/bar and it was damn near 100% full. Mask wearing was probably 90% as far as people getting to their tables or going to the restroom. I have another week or so to go before I know if I chose wisely or not. I sat outside only.

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Captainant

Captainant 27447

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah, I finally went out this past weekend to a restaurant/bar and it was damn near 100% full. Mask wearing was probably 90% as far as people getting to their tables or going to the restroom. I have another week or so to go before I know if I chose wisely or not. I sat outside only.

I've been to a few restaurants with my wife just to not cook for once and have been happy with their social distancing and precautionary measures. Tables were spaced out with at least a one table gap between seated parties, waitstaff was fully masked, and all the other diners (that I could see) were wearing a facemask when they weren't seated at their table.

I think there's a way forward with safely eating out, but it takes everyone taking it seriously. So it's definitely not going to work at scale.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, drt said:

Goddamnit. Why can’t we give it a few weeks after in person school restarts just to see how it goes?  Is it really so crucial to reopen bars right now?

Data for the 1M kids and 0.8M staff that have been in person school the past month shows that only 5% of CV19 cases were caught on campus. Not that kids aren't being exposed elsewhere (My 13 year old was in a baseball tournament that had 12 teams in it this past weekend (prior weekend was 16 teams) ) and that is one age group eg but school hasn't been a big vector for transmission.

Also I agree with other comments that the bars are all doing the "fake food" deal already so ideally we won't see the jailbreak spike in cases that happened in July.

I do believe that July was a bit of a perfect storm in that everything seemingly opened at once. We have already seen more restaurants, gyms, stores etc open gradually and no material change in cases/hospitalizations (in fact they are reducing). Hopefully if bars open it won't be a total shit show. Although people have shown a remarkable propensity to fuck things up during this time.

 

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NotActuallyALonghorn

NotActuallyALonghorn 4968

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Captainant said:

I've been to a few restaurants with my wife just to not cook for once and have been happy with their social distancing and precautionary measures. Tables were spaced out with at least a one table gap between seated parties, waitstaff was fully masked, and all the other diners (that I could see) were wearing a facemask when they weren't seated at their table.

I think there's a way forward with safely eating out, but it takes everyone taking it seriously. So it's definitely not going to work at scale.

We've eaten inside a restaurant twice since the shutdown, and it was somewhat mixed. The first was almost empty when we got there, but by the time we got our food it was much fuller than I would have liked. I don't think they were above their capacity limits, but it was our first foray and most of the people took their masks off as soon as they were at the table while waiting on their food. It probably were expecting it to stay emptier since it was close to empty when we got there. The second was a texmex joint that had every other table closed off. Of course you can't fill up on chips and salsa before you get your food if you have a mask on, so maybe that's why it felt more comfortable. It had also been six months since the last time I had the experience of filling up on chips and salsa before the meal, so maybe there was a bit of satisfaction there. But for the most part everybody seemed to be taking things seriously.

I do think the spike in the summer was an almost necessary reality check for many folks here and was almost needed to get enough buy in for masks and social distancing to make a difference. 

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South Austin

South Austin 52142

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Posted

Woodrow's on Burnet has been opened for a few weeks.  I think they jack up the price of chips and salsa to offset the price of alcohol to get around the food revenue percentage threshold.  I've walked over a couple times to drink on the patio while watching football.  Bartenders and staff all masked, temperature checks at the door, and most patrons are wearing masks to get to their seats and go to the bathroom.  There's a decent distance between tables, and everyone seems to be respectful of the current climate.  Especially with the weather, it's been glorious, and a great mental break from the pandemic stress. 

I think there's a big difference between that and opening the bars on Sixth Street where younger patrons (get off my lawn!) cram into the insides of bars and get shitfaced without regard to social distancing.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about Abbott's move here. 

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hornian

hornian 5205

Posted
Posted
On 10/1/2020 at 8:05 AM, atomheartbevo said:

City of Austin released list of businesses violating covid 19 protocols

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/city-of-austin-releases-partial-list-of-businesses-bars-hit-with-covid-19-related-violations/

The six COVID-19 related warnings the city sent from AFD were issued to:

  • Austin Roller Rink (8/2/20)
  • The Blind Pig (8/20/20)
  • Unbarlievable (8/30/20)
  • Javelina Bar (9/12/20)
  • Jack and Gingers (9/13/20)
  • Buck Wild (9/14/20)

I expected more.  That’s actually pretty good.

I have a case right now where my clients wife caught COVID. We got her credit card statements in discovery, and she had gone out to both the Blind Pig and Buckwild the weekend before her positive diagnosis. 
 

I was shocked, shocked to find there was gambling, I mean lack of social distancing, going on there. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

Looks like business is picking back up in the Panhandle

https://www.myhighplains.com/life-health/health/coronavirus/local-hospitalization-rates-continue-to-rise/

 

Was there an event or something a couple weeks back?

They had a huge spike on 9/28/2020. Wonder what that was about?

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1777

Posted
Posted

not that I am aware of....Tri-State Fair and Rodeo was cancelled, the stock show went ahead and happened. WTAMU football is playing a patched together 9 game schedule (3 games so far) no issues that I have heard.

The huge spike was a mass testing at TDCJ Neal unit. 

https://www.myhighplains.com/news/local-news/tdcj-report-shows-covid-19-jump-at-neal-unit-in-amarillo/

maybe that has something to do with it....

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
Posted (edited)

Which high school I wonder

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/austin-public-health-high-school-cluster-weekend-party/269-29ead8dc-75a3-4ae1-a109-4530019107ec

Quote

Multiple high school students have tested positive for COVID-19 after a weekend party, according to Austin's top doctor.

Quote

The preliminary data from that investigation indicates that six individuals from that party have tested as COVID-19 positive and another 58 are quarantined as close contacts," Dr. Escott said.

He did not identify the high school involved in the investigation, and an APH spokesperson also refused to share the name of the high school with KVUE.

During the briefing, Dr. Escott also warned APH is seeing additional clusters associated with students outside of the class environment.

"We are seeing the same pattern that we've seen in the past in that they seem to be happening in extracurricular activities, such as football and volleyball, as well as in parties," he said.

Kids partying are going to fuck this up for athletics and schools.  Getoffmylawn.gif

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Posted

17 admits yesterday for Travis County so not a great day there. Only 95 cases yesterday though (8 of last 9 days have been <100). Pretty heavily skewed younger in terms of yesterday's cases with a pop in the 50 to 59 age range in comparison to their normal share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/6 vs 10/5 1 6 17 24 14 3 17 5 3 5 95
% of Daily Change 1.05% 6.32% 17.89% 25.26% 14.74% 3.16% 17.89% 5.26% 3.16% 5.26%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.88% 9.39% 26.93% 20.96% 15.93% 11.40% 6.43% 3.21% 2.33%   29,952
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

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3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

17 admits yesterday for Travis County so not a great day there. Only 95 cases yesterday though (8 of last 9 days have been <100). Pretty heavily skewed younger in terms of yesterday's cases with a pop in the 50 to 59 age range in comparison to their normal share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/6 vs 10/5 1 6 17 24 14 3 17 5 3 5 95
% of Daily Change 1.05% 6.32% 17.89% 25.26% 14.74% 3.16% 17.89% 5.26% 3.16% 5.26%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.88% 9.39% 26.93% 20.96% 15.93% 11.40% 6.43% 3.21% 2.33%   29,952

Looks like maybe those high school kids from the party are showing up in the stats?

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Looks like maybe those high school kids from the party are showing up in the stats?

It's possible. This age group has had a pretty big run over the past couple of months where they have increased their overall share of CV19 cases in Travis County pretty significantly.

From 8/1 to 8/31 the share of overall CV19 cases from 10 to 19 year olds for Travis County went from 7.71% to 8.06% so not a huge jump. (4.5% increase)

From 9/1 to 9/30 on the other hand went from 8.09% to 9.35% (15.5% increase), so a much more material move.

As of 10/6 the group is now at 9.39% of total cases. I would imagine this will be the same going forward at least through the end of the year as back to school and other socialization events for these kids takes place.

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rpspeed

rpspeed 1351

Posted
Posted (edited)
 
Opening bars and similar establishments to 50% capacity in regions with low #COVID19 hospitalizations. ‪Beginning October 14th, County Judges can opt their county into these openings provided they assist in enforcing health protocols.
Additionally, businesses like amusement parks, movie theaters, zoos, aquariums, and bowling alleys can expand to 75% capacity in counties with low #COVID19 hospitalizations ‪beginning October 14th.
Texans have shown that we can contain the spread of #COVID19 by following health protocols and guidelines.
Our state is prepared for these additional openings, but we all must remain vigilant and show personal responsibility to protect ourselves and our loved ones.
Edited by rpspeed
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Good job passing the buck to the county judges. Abbott can throw up his hands and say it wasn't me if they decide to open and cases explode or they decide to stay closed and small businesses are lost.

The irony is that if he allowed a lot more local control, it would A) let him throw his hands up and absolve himself of the responsibility, and B) get the major areas under better control, which would help him (and Texas) out.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

Not going to do the tables today but yesterday was another good day for Travis County with only 45 new cases and 12 admits.

The 50 to 59 group took a pounding yesterday though (two days in a row) being 15.56% of cases vs normal share of 11.41% but it is off a small base.

Nine of the past 10 days have been <100 cases. We get four more days <100 then I will lower my unofficial BrazilHorn "buoyancy" index from 100-200/day to 0-100/day.

With bars reopening to 50% soon (not that they weren't effectively already open via "food" sales) we will be able to quickly tell if shit gets real again. I don't expect to see the "jailbreak" that happened in July but do expect to see a bit of a pop here.

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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Good job passing the buck to the county judges. Abbott can throw up his hands and say it wasn't me if they decide to open and cases explode or they decide to stay closed and small businesses are lost.

 

It's the simplest way to appease parts of his base that are mad at him.

Blame those county judges *wink wink nod nod to their political affiliation,* not me! 

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Your Mom

Your Mom 4796

Posted
Posted (edited)

Didn't most bars already open a while back when they said food trucks on premises or a food permit for a couple appetizers could qualify it as a restaurant?  Every bar in my hood in South Austin has been open for quite a while now.

Edited by Your Mom
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

Didn't most bars already open a while back when they said food trucks on premises or a food permit for a couple appetizers could qualify it as a restaurant?  Every bar in my hood in South Austin has been open for quite a while now.

That's why I don't believe we will see the crazy spike in cases like in July when it was pretty much a big bang reopening for everything (after being holed up basically sicne end of March). I think bars have been skirting regulations for some time so some of the bounce is built in.

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Hate

Hate 20103

Posted
Posted

I’m curios how Comal County is doing. Didn’t they open up 100% and without masks a week or more ago? I guess maybe it’s still a little too early to see and hospitalizations spikes. I would also imagine that anyone sick enough to be admitted would go to SA. It will be interesting to se if SA sees a big bump in admissions over the next week or two.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Hate said:

I’m curios how Comal County is doing. Didn’t they open up 100% and without masks a week or more ago? I guess maybe it’s still a little too early to see and hospitalizations spikes. I would also imagine that anyone sick enough to be admitted would go to SA. It will be interesting to se if SA sees a big bump in admissions over the next week or two.

I haven't found a good place for Comal County data. Their dashboard has no trend data,  just point-in-time. And the hospitalizations are worthless because almost everyone here gets sent somewhere else for Covid. We have 9 current hospitalized cases which is obviously low and not really prescriptive for anything. So nobody has any idea, which is pretty well how I assume they want it. I have to watch Austin and SA to get even a directional idea of how things are going.

Pretty open here. Still reasonably good mask usage in the few places I've been since, which is basically HEB and Home Depot. A few randoms without masks but it's all been pleasant with no BS. Haven't really been to anywhere except O'Reillys for a mower battery since Trump caught it.

Outside of going into retail with masks, the public seems to be mostly acting like it doesn't exist. At least where I live (which you know, Hate). I think the city is a bit less flippant about it. Neighborhood Facebook page throwing parties and things like that. My dog went off and chased some deer across the street and the lady who found him told me the virus was a hoax. Nice woman though.

Edited by BradInATX
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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11809

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Good job passing the buck to the county judges. Abbott can throw up his hands and say it wasn't me if they decide to open and cases explode or they decide to stay closed and small businesses are lost.

 

Well yeah and by doing it on the "14th", they can blame the uptick in cases on early voting.

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