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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,576

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Another <100 case count in Travis county yesterday with 78 cases. Still largely in the <40 age ranges overall which should bode well for death numbers in coming weeks.

15 hospitalizations so although we have had 10 of 11 days sub 100 cases (and they've skewed younger in ages) we still cannot crack that barrier of <10 admits/day. Overall it is ~15.3% of cases end up as hospital admits. Since 9/1 we have had 3,558 cases and 561 admits (15.76% admits to cases) so Travis is still right in line with the historical average.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/8 vs 10/7 1 4 10 26 9 14 7 5 2 0 78
% of Daily Change 1.28% 5.13% 12.82% 33.33% 11.54% 17.95% 8.97% 6.41% 2.56% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.89% 9.39% 26.94% 20.94% 15.94% 11.40% 6.43% 3.21% 2.32%   30,075
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,576

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Here is the school district data through 10/4. Couple of things of weirdness:

1) their cumulative numbers do not tie to the past three weeks of data they have released so they must be pulling in earlier data into their cumulative views (I have added a row called "since reported" which shows what the reporting is solely showing

2) for the total cumulative numbers the EE to 3rd and 4th to 6th numbers are the same. That just seems off to me

In general only ~5% of CV19 cases that students and staff have caught from the ~1M students and 800k staff that were in place at opening have been actually caught in the school.

  EE to 3rd  4th to 6th 7th to 12th Staff Conf On Campus % On Campus # Students @ Open # Staff @ Open
W/E 9/20 138 143 687 455 72 5.06% 1,080,317 800,078
W/E 9/27 178 150 784 550 81 4.87%    
W/E 10/4 144 195 835 682 94 5.32%    
Cum Total (as of 10/4) 851 851 4124 3335 459 5.27%    
Since Reported Cum Total (as of 10/4) 460 488 2306 1687 247      
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,416

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It’s he’s too catch when you keep your head al the way up your own ass.

Somebody's been drinking.

Fuck OU.  They will all probably get covid anyways, since they don't believe in masks and social distancing.

We aren't helping, but the sentiment is what matters.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,576

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I was at baseball tourney and a wedding saturday so the numbers below are a weekend update for Travis County.

There were 190 cases the past two days combined with 65% of them being from the under 40 year old age groups. Hospital admits were 10 & 11 for Saturday & Sunday respectively.

Deaths spiked last week with 12, none of them coming from anyone under 50. Travis County deaths WoW were accounted as follows:

50 - 59 (2), 60 - 69 (4), 70 - 79 (2), 80+ (4) . Overall people over 60 years old represent ~82% of all deaths from CV19 in Travis County.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,576

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133 cases yesterday for Travis County.. Biggest single day since 9/25. Heavily skewed younger with big numbers in 10 to 19 (38) & 20 to 29 (56).

Some screwiness in the 1 to 9 group (see this all the time in these smaller number groups where cases get reassigned). 10 admits yesterday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/12 vs 10/11 1 -4 38 56 25 5 6 3 3 0 133
% of Daily Change 0.75% -3.01% 28.57% 42.11% 18.80% 3.76% 4.51% 2.26% 2.26% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.89% 9.50% 27.02% 20.91% 15.87% 11.36% 6.40% 3.21% 2.31%

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,416

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4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Agree. Not ideal groupings. Better than what CDC does however they have even bigger groupings.

I'm honestly surprised TC isn't breaking out them into better groupings, given how closely they work with AISD and the surrounding school districts, and UT - it would help the school districts and colleges out quite a bit.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8,789

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On 9/2/2020 at 4:50 PM, XYZ said:

It seems like the virus burnt itself out in NYC. Take a random sample of 1000 people in NYC and do antibody tests. That would give us a decent measure of the herd immunity threshold, no? I mean, I don’t know, maybe I’m missing a big part of this puzzle, but why the fuck are we not doing random samples?

I'm about as close to being an expert virologist as I am an astronaut, but I still think this virus is still pretty much an unknown entity. There are so many variables and unknowns, that we're going to be going back to the drawing board over and over before it gets figured out....if ever.

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rpspeed

rpspeed 1,351

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I was looking at the stats for my county(Bowie), at the end of August there had been 71 deaths. Almost halfway thru October the total has only gone up by 3 to 74. Active cases have dropped from 370 to 292 even with all the schools in the area being open for in person and participating in full extracurricular activities.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,416

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Collin County is removing their online covid dashboard.  Good thing the winter weather is not conducive to it.

https://www.fox4news.com/news/collin-county-officials-votes-to-remove-covid-19-dashboard

Quote

People in Collin County will have a harder time finding out what's going on there in the pandemic.

The Commissioner's Court voted to remove the county's COVID-19 reporting page at the end of the month.

They said it's about no confidence in the state's numbers, so they are going to direct people to the state's numbers.

Quote

In August, Collin County put a disclaimer on the page that said it had no confidence in the numbers provided by the state.

There's still a backlog of cases and other problems, so the commissioners voted to take it down.

"I'm not sure that fixation on those percentages and case numbers has as much value as it did early on when we were trying to figure out the disease and trying to figure out trends. We know where we are now," said Commissioner Darrell Hale.

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"I think that there are still people who look at that and I think you would wind up with a situation where the public feels like there's something we're trying to hide," argued Commissioner Susan Fletcher.

If the decision stands, the link will begin directing people to the state's website to find the county's case numbers after Oct. 30.

 

 

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1,777

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Posted

El Paso is sinking fast....running out of ICU beds.

 

https://kvia.com/health/2020/10/13/just-9-available-icu-beds-in-el-paso-hudspeth-culberson-counties-due-to-virus-spike/

there are 2 HCA hospitals out there both are critical low on beds and staff due to positive COVID tests. HCA is asking and enticing nurses from St David's system (which is part of  HCA) to come out there to work. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,576

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Travis County derped their data so this is a two day tally vs one. 203 cases over past two days. One are of concern is that 60+ groups are higher than their normal contribution. This is a leading indicator of deaths spiking as these groups are ~82% of deaths to date in Travis and have the highest mortality rates. 12 hospital admits yesterday (16 the prior day)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/14 vs 10/13 -1 7 14 38 45 38 32 17 6 7 203
% of Daily Change -0.49% 3.45% 6.90% 18.72% 22.17% 18.72% 15.76% 8.37% 2.96% 3.45%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.89% 9.48% 26.96% 20.91% 15.89% 11.39% 6.41% 3.21% 2.32%   30,601
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Skipper

Skipper 6,103

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Dallas moved the risk level back up to Red (i.e., highest risk level).   I'm not sure how much of that is supported by current data vs. how much is Jenkins being conservative (and/or playing politics).  Cases have been rising but the positivity rate has been flat and hospitalizations as of the last Tues data dump are still really low.  But according to Jenkins, hospitalizations are rising and he has access to more recent data no doubt so will be interesting to see if we can see that rise in tomorrow's data dump.    I  do definitely thing there is some COVID fatigue settling in here so it's not surprising.

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9,564

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Good thing we just increased capacity at bars to 50%. 
 

Really, if you are catching COVID 8 months into the pandemic, there is a damn good chance it’s your own fault. Hell, I dont know a single person who has been wearing a mask since the beginning and has caught it/tested positive.

 

Of the 20-30 people I know that have had it, almost all of them engaged in risky behaviors (parties, indoor dinners, bars, etc) and/or not believed in wearing a mask

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2,200

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Are there any legit deep dives in to the impact the schools reopening has had?  Possibly broken down by elementary vs middle vs high school vs college?  We’ve had several weeks of stadiums with 10-20k (50k in Aggie land?), and it seems like we should have some kind of analysis at least on the first couple weekends of games. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,325

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38 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

People are getting it left and right, and generally it’s a nonissue. Indoor dinners and bars aren’t something I’m worried about anymore. I’m convinced we have all been exposed or built up immunity to it. I wear a mask everywhere I go and have since this thing started but I have indoor meals at restaurants literally every day. 

Yep.  I got the shit last week and I had been spending 12-17 hours everyday with my baby daughter and wife in the fucking NICU, where everyone is wearing a fucking mask.   

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,325

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Why is your baby in NICU?  I did that with my firstborn (she’s now 12) and it sucked. 

She was born with Esophogeal Atresia.   The upper and lower parts of her esophagus were not connected and there was a fistula connecting the lower portion to her trachea instead.   Hoping she’ll finally get out this weekend, just as I’m done with my quarantine, but wife is still in for another 5 days after that.   We haven’t been able to see her for a fucking week.   It’s been brutal emotionally 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,279

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1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

She was born with Esophogeal Atresia.   The upper and lower parts of her esophagus were not connected and there was a fistula connecting the lower portion to her trachea instead.   Hoping she’ll finally get out this weekend, just as I’m done with my quarantine, but wife is still in for another 5 days after that.   We haven’t been able to see her for a fucking week.   It’s been brutal emotionally 

I can only imagine, man. Hang in there. 

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11,360

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8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

She was born with Esophogeal Atresia.   The upper and lower parts of her esophagus were not connected and there was a fistula connecting the lower portion to her trachea instead.   Hoping she’ll finally get out this weekend, just as I’m done with my quarantine, but wife is still in for another 5 days after that.   We haven’t been able to see her for a fucking week.   It’s been brutal emotionally 

yeah, both mine were premature births and did nicu time. i cannot imagine not being able to go visit them. hang in there, man. if you're here and she is at seton, then she is in great hands.

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bolverk

bolverk 29,399

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20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

None.  Contact traced to everyone I had seen and they all tested, and tested negative.  I’m pretty sure I got it in the hospital somehow, and my wife got it from me.   

Wishing you and yours all my best. I can only imagine how you're feeling but am confident that y'all will pull through this. Hang in there, man.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3,433

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35 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m pretty sure I got it in the hospital somehow, and my wife got it from me.   

Probably 90+% of cases I see are traceable. There’s a few head scratchers and I believe a lot these patients when they tell me they do the right thing and still get it. It’s just not that predictable.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,210

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

She was born with Esophogeal Atresia.   The upper and lower parts of her esophagus were not connected and there was a fistula connecting the lower portion to her trachea instead.   Hoping she’ll finally get out this weekend, just as I’m done with my quarantine, but wife is still in for another 5 days after that.   We haven’t been able to see her for a fucking week.   It’s been brutal emotionally 

Sucks.  I'm sorry.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,325

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5 minutes ago, Hate said:


Have y’all had any symptoms?

Wife has had none.  I started feeling clammy with a little cough last Tuesday.   I immediately left the wife and baby and went back home (we were staying at a hotel in Temple since she was going to be there for up to a month or more).   Fever peaked at 102 the next morning then went away by Wed night.  Then came back Monday & Tuesday and finally went away yesterday.   
 

weirdest night I had was Thursday night, went to bed with a temp of 97.9.  Woke up at 3am with fierce, bone rattling chills and had sweated through my sheets/blanket like I had broken a fever.  Took my temp and I was still at 97.9    Super weird.  Haven’t taken any medicine today and am at normal temp.   Trying to get through 24 hours without meds because that is a sign that I’m more or less done with it.  
 

lost my sense of taste and smell as well.   The only thing I could taste is if things were salty, sweet, or spicy.  

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