COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Fudbelty 2788]

18 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

I tested positive yesterday.

 

I have nothing but a tickle in my throat. Nothing but Door Dash and seeing what is in the deep-freeze for me.

Best of luck. My only non medical professional advice is if it feels wrong is go get checked out. My health insurance is good but either way get checked out. Don’t fuck with the side shit. 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Fudbelty

[dcbc 14496]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Glad ur fine but anywhere indoors with kids or indoors without masks is suicide. Hope things continue to improve

It was about a week before things started, or so I thought I read.  Early 2020.  For some of us, ignorance, i.e, before we stumbled onto the Surly Thread in March, was bliss.

[BrazilHorn 6624]

Little late in posting. Been at baseball tourneys all weekend.

48 cases day over day but still running up admits with 19 yesterday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/18 vs 10/17	0	4	7	13	10	5	3	3	3	0	48
% of Daily Change	0.00%	8.33%	14.58%	27.08%	20.83%	10.42%	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.90%	9.50%	26.98%	20.87%	15.86%	11.36%	6.45%	3.23%	2.32%	30,956

[atomheartbevo 89758]

4 positives within the program, so Westlake football suspended for a week.

https://www.kxan.com/sports/westlake-football-suspends-all-practices-due-to-covid-19-cases/

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

Just got news on a patient from a few weeks ago. 32 yrs old, completely healthy, ASA 1. Had covid back in July. Tested negative 2 times since then. Totally asymptomatic, came in for a cyst removal. Left surgery center fine, no problems.

 

2 days later, went into complete cardio-pulmonary failure. Admitted to Methodist. Tested positive for COVID, died 24 hours after admission

 

 

I dont even know anymore

[HoustonFrog 368]

I mean, did you not just read the above?

Yeah - has nothing to do with how I personally handled COVID. The one time I got the flu it was awful and I had to go to ER. Nearly had to do the same with Mono in college, got a terrible case of it. For whatever reason I didn’t handle those well but COVID was super minor for me, outside of the weird smell/taste thing

[Fudbelty 2788]

Just got news on a patient from a few weeks ago. 32 yrs old, completely healthy, ASA 1. Had covid back in July. Tested negative 2 times since then. Totally asymptomatic, came in for a cyst removal. Left surgery center fine, no problems.
 
2 days later, went into complete cardio-pulmonary failure. Admitted to Methodist. Tested positive for COVID, died 24 hours after admission
 
 
I dont even know anymore

Well that’s terrifying. Especially for me.

[CBT 1282]

RIP Fud. We'll be sure to get the wreath fund operational again. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21207]

This disease is fucking psycho. 

[C-Man 27239]

On 10/18/2020 at 7:44 AM, Fudbelty said:

Thank you. Other than just over all feeling like shit I did ok with the Covid. Like I said my body just went full inflame mode. It was odd for sure. Other than being a newborn I’ve never spent a full night in the hospital. I actually don’t think I was ever admitted in to one. Always ER and in and out.

My doc did mention they’re they’re thinking that the virus load you actually take On is how bad you get Covid itself.

I haven't checked in on this thread in awhile -- wow, you had a hell of a time. Glad you're on the mend. Confused by the "ok with the COVID" part of your comment, though. Wasn't the resulting storm all a result of having COVID-19? That's that they've been saying since the summer, I think. In autopsies they're finding a shocking number of clots. It's not so much the disease that kills you but the body's defense system turning things up to 11 (or more) causing the cytokine storm.

Be well. (BTW, kids' birthday parties at indoor locations, much less tramp parks, seem really, really ill-advised.)

[Fudbelty 2788]

I guess my habit of downplaying shit is getting me. Yes I had complications from the CV. I just meant more my body did ok with the CV. Then shit hit the fan.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, CBT said:

RIP Fud. We'll be sure to get the wreath fund operational again. 

I thought we spent that on pizza

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

20 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:

It was super mild. I’d rather have it than the typical common cold

that makes a ton of sense. thanks for sharing.

[Hmbre97 6325]

5 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:

Yeah - has nothing to do with how I personally handled COVID. The one time I got the flu it was awful and I had to go to ER. Nearly had to do the same with Mono in college, got a terrible case of it. For whatever reason I didn’t handle those well but COVID was super minor for me, outside of the weird smell/taste thing

But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

Edited October 19, 2020 by Hmbre97

[Fudbelty 2788]

But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

That’s what I’m struggling w now especially after reading the post about the guy who got it again. I know new virus that we still don’t know a ton about but I’ve basically been told I wouldn’t get it again. Really fucking weird and confusing. Are there medical experts here that can speak to that? Here or pm are fine.

[HoustonFrog 368]

But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

And probably an equal chance I get a flu that puts me in hospital. Or some other weird sickness/disease.

For me (30, active, not overweight, no medical conditions) the stats just don’t support getting a case of COVID that is severe. I believe the fatality rate in my group is similar to the flu.

This fucking virus is a disaster in how it impacts the elderly at a devastating rate and the other somewhat random people it affects severely. I don’t really know how the world handles it, it’s not going anywhere. There is no time horizon where it disappears

I’d hate to be in government and places like CDC right now. I can’t see an answer.

[HoustonFrog 368]

That’s what I’m struggling w now especially after reading the post about the guy who got it again. I know new virus that we still don’t know a ton about but I’ve basically been told I wouldn’t get it again. Really fucking weird and confusing. Are there medical experts here that can speak to that? Here or pm are fine.

I’ve blocked everything else out but CDC guidance. It’s made life easier.

They have a giant box on their website that says they don’t know much of anything about reinfection. All they know is that you almost certainly have a three month window after having it where you are clear.

With 40MM worldwide cases you would think there would be more reports of people getting it again (outside of 3 month window). That gives me some hope that most people carry some type of immunity for much longer than 3 months.

[drt 640]

Immunity to other corona viruses lasts from 8-15 months is what I’ve seen commonly reported. That’s from antibodies iirc. There’s been some discussion of this in the medical thread, but the honest answer is the cdc line. New virus, and there is a ton we don’t know. In particular the inflammatory response to these infections and subsequent ones.  

[ABSR 5320]

5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I thought we spent that on pizza

He'll be dead, so we can say whatever we want now and he will never know better.  So yeah, a BIG wreath!

[atomheartbevo 89758]

7 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

This disease is fucking psycho. 

Yeah, just found out a cousin's FIL got it from his church up in Oklahoma, something like three dozen people, and it's fucking him up.  We can guess whether they were doing the mask thing (narrator: It's Oklahoma, so probably not).  This is the third person I've actually known who has caught it in the past 5 weeks, where it's put them in the hospital, and have known another half-dozen who have caught it within that period, who were able to stay home and/or had very minor effects.

Wife and I were were talking with my sister, and kind of doing a tally of friends/relatives that have had it, and we know more people who have caught it within the last two months, than the previous period back to March.

I'm guessing it's got to be people letting their guard down.  Which I get.

[HoustonFrog 368]

Yeah we had to run through the calendar/counting days thing today as some friends told us they just tested positive. The entire family tested positive which is kind of crazy because the kids are 3 and 6mos. First kids that young I’ve personally known to get it... my kids of exact same age didn’t get it when I had it.

This is probably the 4th time we’ve had to do the counting days and contact tracing thing since March and it’s wearing on us. Completely shutting our lives down is virtually impossible with two little kids.

[Eastwood 4394]

58 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

This is probably the 4th time we’ve had to do the counting days and contact tracing thing since March and it’s wearing on us. Completely shutting our lives down is virtually impossible with two little kids.

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

[HoustonFrog 368]

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.
Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

Best of luck to you. It’s hard and we don’t have it as difficult as you. We’ve had some brief respites with some family close. But nothing like before... basically 7 straight months of constant kid care without 75% of our usual distractions available. You said it perfectly about when a funk goes through the house it’s basically a week of hell with limited options.

I’d definitely say my wife is borderline depressed for first time I’ve seen. I’m probably not far behind. Can’t go into office, just at home all day every day

[BrazilHorn 6624]

97 cases yesterday for Travis County. No real "gotchas" in the mix (beyond what we have been seeing lately)

20 hospital admits yesterday. (not good). Especially given the fact that we have been seeing consistently <100 cases/day for past couple of weeks.

Throughout the pandemic the % of cases ending up in hospitalizations have been ~15%. Last couple of weeks have been ~21% of cases ending up in hospital.

Not sure what happened on ICU front yesterday either as # jumped from 30 on 10/18 to 43 on 10/19. That's the highest ICU # since 9/5.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/19 vs 10/18	0	3	16	27	13	12	16	5	4	1	97
% of Daily Change	0.00%	3.09%	16.49%	27.84%	13.40%	12.37%	16.49%	5.15%	4.12%	1.03%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.90%	9.52%	26.99%	20.85%	15.85%	11.37%	6.45%	3.24%	2.31%	31,053

[BradInATX 9208]

 

Ruh roh. Last time we saw a slow climb like this was right before the big surge in June.

 

 

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

Dont worry, im sure people wont gather for Halloween

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

18 hours ago, Eastwood said:

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

[BrazilHorn 6624]

35 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dont worry, im sure people wont gather for Halloween

I am getting one of the long PVC pipes and a elbow joint to make a candy delivery system. Can just drop it on from front porch directly into kids bucket/pillow case.

I think Halloween being on a Saturday will make it crazier than normal, but I won't be surprised to see Austin code enforcement and/or APD buzzing around the neighborhoods to keep traffic down etc

[Eastwood 4394]

13 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

I definitely relate to the travel thing. A couple of times over the lockdown period, we have traveled to visit family that is also locking down. The days that we are there, everyone is in a good mood, the kids are behaving like they used to, they're perfectly potty trained, and they respect bedtime like they used to. We got an Airbnb with a big back yard in Galveston at the end of summer and everything was running like it used to while we were there. Hell, even when we are just at a city park for hours, the kids are in a perfect mood. The moment we walk back through the door of the house, things immediately start to sour despite mentally preparing for it and trying to stay positive and actively trying to create a positive atmosphere. It's gotten to the point where I think we might have to sell the house when this is all over with. It's accumulated too much of a bad vibe with the family and has started to feel less like a home and more like a prison. If we can't shake that after this is all done, we will have to move.

[HoustonFrog 368]

We recently went on a scenic vacation away from everything. Kids had a great time, always happy although they slept poorly which was painful for us. Definitely feel like we are running out of things to do at home.

On a positive side for the kids - we’ve bought so many more toys than I would have ever considered just to try and mix it up. But I’m sure as most parents have found out, if you give a kid a toy they’re going to ask for another in 73 seconds

[atomheartbevo 89758]

19 hours ago, Eastwood said:

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

Our kids spent way too much time watching Netflix, Disney+, etc. at times since March, but they were in a funk not being able to directly play with their classmates/friends, etc. and not being able to be dumped off at relatives.  I swear, having them 24/7 for 6 months or so aged me several years.

They seem to have come through it just fine, and are back in class, but because we do have a couple of elderly relatives in town, that we need to help out, we are still strict outside of school (which sucks, because we know and see many parents who aren't), and we are ready to yank them from school for a few weeks if need be.

It's tacky to say, but we are fortunate enough to have had a couple of relatives who went into the hospital, and we saw that play out in all its glory on FB, so the kids understand why we are careful - we had kids later in life, so our parents are all over 70.  On the one hand, we haven't drummed it into their heads to be ultra, ultra paranoid, on the other hand, they know what could happen to their grandparents if we weren't careful, so they understand.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

41 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

On a positive side for the kids - we’ve bought so many more toys than I would have ever considered just to try and mix it up. But I’m sure as most parents have found out, if you give a kid a toy they’re going to ask for another in 73 seconds

I kind of think the kids will bounce back from all of this easier than the adults, not because of the toys, but that helps, lol.  Because our kids are the youngest grandkids in the family, and because we couldn't see them over spring break and the summer like normal, the grandparents have spoiled the hell out of them.   And we do regular FaceTime/Zoom calls with a lot of the extended family, and nearly daily with the grandparents, so in some ways we are all much more connected.  Yeah, it's better to see a aunt or uncle or cousin in person, but going from occasional phone calls and seeing them twice a year at the most, to monthly video chats has been one benefit.

But yeah, my oldest's LEGO's collection.....by the time he finishes high school, that thing could probably pay off his first year or two of college.

And for better or for worse, our kids are much more technically adept at their ages than we were ready for.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

97 cases yesterday for Travis County. No real "gotchas" in the mix (beyond what we have been seeing lately)

20 hospital admits yesterday. (not good). Especially given the fact that we have been seeing consistently <100 cases/day for past couple of weeks.

Throughout the pandemic the % of cases ending up in hospitalizations have been ~15%. Last couple of weeks have been ~21% of cases ending up in hospital.

Not sure what happened on ICU front yesterday either as # jumped from 30 on 10/18 to 43 on 10/19. That's the highest ICU # since 9/5.

Any chance it's folks from surrounding counties?  Some are running things much more open than TC, and some are really squeezed on hospital capacity.

[Bevo 13590]

What has been the trend in Austin, Houston, and Dallas over the past month? My relatives have told me that the case numbers in Houston have been climbing. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Bevo

[BrazilHorn 6624]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Any chance it's folks from surrounding counties?  Some are running things much more open than TC, and some are really squeezed on hospital capacity.

Could be, anything is possible.

[BrazilHorn 6624]

5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What has been the trend in Austin, Houston, and Dallas over the past month? My relatives have told me that the case numbers in Houston have been climbing. 

Austin has been on a steady decline overall.

You saw a trend end of June/Mid July where Travis County was at ~470 cases a day average for about three weeks

Then from Mid July to Mid August numbers dropped to ~230 cases a day

Mid Aug to Mid Sept droppe dto ~127 cases a day

Mid Sept to Mid Oct ~90 cases a day

So pretty consistently trending down on overall cases/day.

 

[Fudbelty 2788]

Random (probably stupid)question, would my positive test count in the county I live or the county I tested in? Same as my hospitalization?

[Skipper 6162]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

What has been the trend in Austin, Houston, and Dallas over the past month? My relatives have told me that the case numbers in Houston have been climbing. 

Dallas is trending up.   The county is always late with the more detailed data lately (should have been a report released today - not out yet) but last Friday's report showed the week ending 10/10 resulted in the first significant increase in positivity rate in 6 weeks (highest level since early August).  Cases have been trending up slightly since late September and it appears almost certain based on the typical reporting lag time that the next few reports will show that hospitalizations were at the lowest point late September/early October then started trending up again.  It's completely different than the skyrocketing rates we saw in June.  Much more of a slow burn this time.  But things aren't looking good heading into actual fall.  We've been better than most but not great either - probably time to button things up a bit (outside of kids in pre-k which we're just accepting that risk at this point). Anecdotally definitely see a lot of COVID fatigue (even shit like half the people masked at Costco aren't wearing them right).

[HoustonFrog 368]

Although we keep hearing “people are inside more in fall and winter”, but is that actually true for Texas? I can speak for my family and say that we stay indoors significantly more in May - September than the rest of the year

[Bash Riprock 1695]

i tested positive last Friday. luckily i've had no fever and little drainage and a sore throat. 

[Skipper 6162]

38 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

i tested positive last Friday. luckily i've had no fever and little drainage and a sore throat. 

Curious what made you decide to get tested if mild symptoms?  

[Bash Riprock 1695]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Curious what made you decide to get tested if mild symptoms?  

My parents have/had it. And they felt horrible a couple of weeks ago and I hugged my Mom's neck on her birthday (before i knew she had it on the 8th). My niece works at a clinic and got me in quick just to be safe. I didn't think I had it, but I did. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Bash Riprock

[atomheartbevo 89758]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Curious what made you decide to get tested if mild symptoms?  

You should never mess around when it comes to syphilis.

Edit: Never mind, wrong thread.

Edited October 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

8 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

Mine are 11, but the weather is the same. This year we bought season passes to a place that’s open all week, so we can go whenever we feel like we need to get out. Doubt we will be going into the lodge though. 

[CooterBrown 18015]

Travis County 7-day hospitalization average increased 37% from 10/14 - 10/21.

Nothing to see here.

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by CooterBrown

[Anastasis 23480]

12 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Travis County 7-day hospitalization average increased 37% from 10/14 - 10/21.

Nothing to see here.

 

Number moving in the wrong direction.  We need to turn that around quick.  But we should also note that that 37% is based on an increase of n=5 or so in the daily hospitalization rates. We need to get going in the other direction again, and it should not take a whole lot of effort to do it, unless we are indeed on the verge of a second wave spike. I don't think that we are, but we should know in another 10-14 days. 

Edited October 21, 2020 by Anastasis

[BrazilHorn 6624]

106 cases for Travis county yesterday with a fairly normal distribution. 25 hospital admits which is highest day since Sept 3rd. 118 total hospitalizations currently which is highest since Sept 7th. Of equal if not greater concern is the % of patients that are in the ICU. We currently see 45 patients in the ICU which as a percentage of hospitalizations is 38.14%. The 45 ICU patients is the highest since Sept 4th. What is concerning is that of the cases Travis County is having a much higher % of them are ending up in the hospital. The average since March of admits/cases is 15.47%. The rolling 7 day average is is 20.7%. The average for October is 19.42% so although it is also higher than the total avg admits/cases the past 7 days are accelerating even past that.

It has been four straight days of increasing admit numbers. People need to be more watchful than ever. Worry I have is that with all the early voting lines and people jamming up on themselves (at least in videos I have seen) that this is poised to contribute heavily as well (fingers crossed not)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/20 vs 10/19	0	8	11	26	16	19	14	6	5	1	106
% of Daily Change	0.00%	7.55%	10.38%	24.53%	15.09%	17.92%	13.21%	5.66%	4.72%	0.94%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.91%	9.53%	26.98%	20.83%	15.86%	11.38%	6.44%	3.24%	2.31%	31,159

[Armybrat 40857]

Just hope I can get my colonoscopy over and done with on the 3rd.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

4 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Just hope I can get my colonoscopy over and done with on the 3rd.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

5 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Travis County 7-day hospitalization average increased 37% from 10/14 - 10/21.

Nothing to see here.

Travis County came out today asking people not to trick-or-treat, or do parties over Halloween.

And I imagine that if a lot of people are paying attention, they may see a slight rise, rush to the stores, thereby putting more people in the stores, and stock up on 6 months worth of supplies.  Or they maybe worried there's another stay-at-home order coming, so they go hit the bars/have parties/etc. one last time before things shut down again.

Because that's what we do.