COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[dcar00 14955]

5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

106 cases for Travis county yesterday with a fairly normal distribution. 25 hospital admits which is highest day since Sept 3rd. 118 total hospitalizations currently which is highest since Sept 7th. Of equal if not greater concern is the % of patients that are in the ICU. We currently see 45 patients in the ICU which as a percentage of hospitalizations is 38.14%. The 45 ICU patients is the highest since Sept 4th. What is concerning is that of the cases Travis County is having a much higher % of them are ending up in the hospital. The average since March of admits/cases is 15.47%. The rolling 7 day average is is 20.7%. The average for October is 19.42% so although it is also higher than the total avg admits/cases the past 7 days are accelerating even past that.

It has been four straight days of increasing admit numbers. People need to be more watchful than ever. Worry I have is that with all the early voting lines and people jamming up on themselves (at least in videos I have seen) that this is poised to contribute heavily as well (fingers crossed not)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/20 vs 10/19	0	8	11	26	16	19	14	6	5	1	106
% of Daily Change	0.00%	7.55%	10.38%	24.53%	15.09%	17.92%	13.21%	5.66%	4.72%	0.94%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.91%	9.53%	26.98%	20.83%	15.86%	11.38%	6.44%	3.24%	2.31%	31,159

do they have an age of hospital admit  and ICU distribution like the one you use for cases?

also, the interesting thing about hospital admits is that if they admit you they can get the test back faster.  happened to a close older relative.  was pretty sick and they admitted him to get the test done.  stayed overnight.  was negative and left that day.  now that should even out over the course of a week.

we are definitely going into a spike.  hopefully a lot more muted than the last one.

[BrazilHorn 6842]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

do they have an age of hospital admit  and ICU distribution like the one you use for cases?

also, the interesting thing about hospital admits is that if they admit you they can get the test back faster.  happened to a close older relative.  was pretty sick and they admitted him to get the test done.  stayed overnight.  was negative and left that day.  now that should even out over the course of a week.

we are definitely going into a spike.  hopefully a lot more muted than the last one.

They show it by week via age. For W/E 10/18 you see following:

<1 - 0

1 to 9 - 0

10 to 19 - 2

20 to 29 - 10

30 to 39 - 11

40 to 49 - 13

50 to 59 - 18

60 to 69 - 17

70 to 79 - 16

80+ - 13

So you see 46 of 100 cases were 60 +

[XYZ 2154]

Austin MSA hospitalizations at 133 today. Close to twice as high as three weeks ago, but much lower than the peak of 500. Covid-19 is the ‘94 Nebraska cornhuskers of viruses.

[Anastasis 23717]

New ATX cases @ 69, new admits continuing the trend highlighted upthread. We're going the wrong fucking direction in a hurry with the new admits.  

[Anastasis 23717]

In June/July we went from roughly same place we are today (mid stage 2) to low end of stage 5 in ~ 25 days. Happy Thanksgiving everybody. 

[Brisketexan 106889]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

In June/July we went from roughly same place we are today (mid stage 2) to low end of stage 5 in ~ 25 days. Happy Thanksgiving everybody. 

Well....ain't that shitty.

 

[Anastasis 23717]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well....ain't that shitty.

Haven't dug into Brazil's reports lately, but there has to be some shift in the underlying demographics/risk factors for the cases for us, or some other factors involved, to be seeing this spike in new admits without corresponding spike in cases. Thoughts @BrazilHorn? 

[Chet Steadman 940]

You gotta give it to the experts.  Back in April/May they were talking about a near certain spike come September/October.  

[South Austin 53222]

Wait, so it’s not okay to start licking shopping carts again?

[Guest Lobo]

No man, there could have been old lettuce in one of those things.  Contain yourself! 

This hospitalization trend is disturbing.  Seemed like at least that part of the equation was flattening out.  And half my dumbass fucking neighbors are planning a high-contact Halloween (no fisting!)

Why are so many smart people so fucking dumb?  What is possibly left to prove with this thing?  Why are certain people this stubborn?  What's left to gain by spreading this thing when we've already made it well over halfway to the end?  

[BradInATX 9208]

When put to a chart, those numbers look kinda rough. Seems like we might be fucked.

 

BRB going to Costco to buy the 10 year supply of Jim Bakker food and 20 years worth of booze.

[Texas Jeff 1999]

I think there is a big wave already underway in Texas and it's only showing up in the hospitalized data.

The hospital numbers for both Texas and Travis County are up sharply but overall case numbers are not spiking in the same way.  Pandemic fatigue has set in and people are just blowing off getting tested.

Now would be a great time to deploy those 15 minute $5 tests.  Where are they?

[BrazilHorn 6842]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Haven't dug into Brazil's reports lately, but there has to be some shift in the underlying demographics/risk factors for the cases for us, or some other factors involved, to be seeing this spike in new admits without corresponding spike in cases. Thoughts @BrazilHorn? 

What’s funny is that since back to school/UT on campus they cases have largely skewed younger. I’m actually surprised at the run up in admits as overall case counts are lower and age demographics have been younger. Up nearly 7 points on the pct of cases ending up as admissions. ICU numbers high as well as a pct of admits. Just really odd set of data points. Need more time to see what normalizes. 
Not sure my answer helps much. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

12 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Just hope I can get my colonoscopy 

Said no one ever

[BradInATX 9208]

29 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

I think there is a big wave already underway in Texas and it's only showing up in the hospitalized data.

The hospital numbers for both Texas and Travis County are up sharply but overall case numbers are not spiking in the same way.  Pandemic fatigue has set in and people are just blowing off getting tested.

Now would be a great time to deploy those 15 minute $5 tests.  Where are they?

 

That was my thought too, but if that were the case we'd almost definitely see a matching increase in percent of tests positive. That has remained flat. And the raw number of tests is actually at its highest since early September. So it's not testing fatigue.

I can't make sense of it either. Is it running around a bunch of old folks' homes and it's just not getting publicity? I guess that would show up in BrazilHorn's numbers, though.

Really odd. But odd is the name of the game with this thing.

Edited October 22, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23717]

15 hours ago, BradInATX said:

When put to a chart, those numbers look kinda rough. Seems like we might be fucked.

 

BRB going to Costco to buy the 10 year supply of Jim Bakker food and 20 years worth of booze.

 

Crude overlay with the case counts.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Anastasis

[TTU13 108]

Could it be more Antigen tests are being done that count towards amount of tests done (thus maintaining testing levels) but Texas still not reporting antigen positive tests results? That could explain the discrepancy between cases and hospitalizations.

[justhookit 4206]

Corpus still basically flat, but yeah I’m about a week away or so to get back to the point that caused us to start this thread. Bad news is our baseline is way higher than the summer spike, good news is that everyone here is still being pretty damned good with the masks and we all know what to do if it spikes hard again.

we were about 2 weeks behind down here during the last spike, so I’ll be more interested in our data at the end of the month. Some good stuff here - https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/10-20-20-TAMUCC-COVID-19.pdf

 

 

[Chewbacca 7829]

How do you quantify your sense of smell?

Mattress scale.

[Chewbacca 7829]

Indoor trampoline park with a bunch of kids? Yeah, my money is on that place being a COVID factory.
Glad you made it through. Sounds terrifying. Both the COVID and the trampoline park. 

Yeah, that shit sounds like bad idea jeans. 0.0% chance you'd find me in one of those right now.

[Chewbacca 7829]

I thought we spent that on pizza

I thought we spent it on fake cancer.

[BradInATX 9208]

8 hours ago, TTU13 said:

Could it be more Antigen tests are being done that count towards amount of tests done (thus maintaining testing levels) but Texas still not reporting antigen positive tests results? That could explain the discrepancy between cases and hospitalizations.

That's possible. They do report them combined. But the testing levels have been pretty steady for about 3 weeks now, and suddenly hospitalizations jumped. It's really weird.

There's a dude that posts on Reddit Austin every day and has some good graphs and charts. You can see that testing has been pretty stable since mid September (bars) and the positive percentage has been flat as well (line). 

 

 

If you look at Anastasis' chart where he superimposed cases vs. hospitalizations, you can see that it's the first real divergence of the two datasets. It's really weird. 

[Armybrat 41399]

10 hours ago, Lobo said:

No man, there could have been old lettuce in one of those things.  Contain yourself! 

This hospitalization trend is disturbing.  Seemed like at least that part of the equation was flattening out.  And half my dumbass fucking neighbors are planning a high-contact Halloween (no fisting!)

Why are so many smart people so fucking dumb?  What is possibly left to prove with this thing?  Why are certain people this stubborn?  What's left to gain by spreading this thing when we've already made it well over halfway to the end?  

Because the dumbfucks do not trust any numbers that are being published. They still think it is a worldwide conspiracy to destroy MAGA and to enrich the hospitals.

[Armybrat 41399]

7 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

On 10/17/2020 at 10:56 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

How do you quantify your sense of smell?

Mattress scale.

My taint.

[Guest Lobo]

7 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

On 10/17/2020 at 10:56 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

How do you quantify your sense of smell?

Mattress scale.

I highly recommend not smelling your mom's mattress this week.  Shit got weird last night.  

[kevwun 16437]

There is apparently some problem with the DSHS Region 7 case database right now and they are limited on what new data they can send to the counties until it gets fixed.  I'm not sure how accurate the new case numbers are right now with that going on.

Edited October 22, 2020 by kevwun

[Bash Riprock 1695]

It's been almost a week since I have tested positive. I've been drinking a lot of those emergen c packs and sniffing a lot of Afrin. I don't feel horrible but I don't feel great. My parents have fully recovered and they said that was the worst 10 days of their life. They describe how they felt and it doesn't come anywhere near what I felt. Age is huge in this thing, I think my Mother is in better shape than me. definitely my stepdad, but I havent had fever or felt like a truck ran over me. 

[Anastasis 23717]

20 minutes ago, kevwun said:

There is apparently some problem with the DSHS Region 7 case database right now and they are limited on what new data they can send to the counties until it gets fixed.  I'm not sure how accurate the new case numbers are right now with that going on.

Wouldn't the case numbers flow the opposite direction? Counties push up counts to state region level?  I don't know, was just how I assume the reporting would flow. 

[kevwun 16437]

It flows both ways and is an all around clusterfuck.  DSHS has to sort and assign the cases for people who test positive in counties that they don't live in because the counties wouldn't find out about those cases otherwise.  Counties do keep track of their own cases also, but DSHS adds or subtracts from that number when they get around to processing the new cases.

Edited October 22, 2020 by kevwun

[BrazilHorn 6842]

Really weird shit in the numbers yesterday. I am showing on one site where Travis County went up 69 cases. The main Travis County dashboard which breaks out by age group shows an aggregate increase of 969 which cannot be right and is driven by an purported increase in 907 people in the 60 to 69 cohort.  The rest add up to 62 so it is an increase of 7 in all likelihood which tracks which what typical day over day increase for this cohort has been. (I have manually adjusted this cohort in my table below). Slight uptick in the 60+ crowd vs their normal contribution (leading indicator of admits & death)

31 new admits for hospitals in Travis County. 5th straight day of an increase and the highest single day since Aug 15th. 133 hospitalizations total which is the highest since Aug 31st.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 10/21 vs 10/20 0 3 10 20 7 10 6 7 4 2 69 % of Daily Change 0.00% 4.35% 14.49% 28.99% 10.14% 14.49% 8.70% 10.14% 5.80% 2.90%   % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.92% 9.54% 26.98% 20.81% 15.86% 11.37% 6.45% 3.25% 2.31%   31,228

Edited October 22, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[Skipper 6411]

I just noticed in the detailed data report for Dallas there is fine print that reads:  "{Note: Due to a database system changeover, hospitalization data for Week 39- 41 are delayed, but is anticipated to be fully included next week.}".  Considering data for those weeks already show to be "flat" it's almost certain hospitalizations have been rising and just not reflected in the data.  Absolutely fucking ridiculous that 9+ months into this thing we can't even get reporting figured out.   What a joke.

[Anastasis 23717]

9 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It flows both ways and is an all around clusterfuck.  DSHS has to sort and assign the cases for people who test positive in counties that they don't live in because the counties wouldn't find out about those cases otherwise.  Counties do keep track of their own cases also, but DSHS adds or subtracts from that number when they get around to processing the new cases.

LOL.  Of course. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

Pretty much everyone in my area is back in full don't give a fuck mode. 

My uncle that has diabetes and two previous heart attacks got covid earlier in month. To our surprise, he was over it in a week. 

[kevwun 16437]

Has there been any more news about the study that said a certain Neanderthal gene could make you more likely to have a bad case of the virus?

Edited October 22, 2020 by kevwun

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Has there been anymore news about the study that said  a certain Neanderthal gene could make you more susceptible to the virus?

Surly would have already been quarantined if this was true.

[dcar00 14955]

11 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

Crude overlay with the case counts.

 

 

hopefully we can stay in the mustard zone but it looks like we will hit 70's kitchen counter zone.

[atomheartbevo 90642]

58 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Age is huge in this thing, I think my Mother is in better shape than me.

She is in fantastic shape for her age.  

[atomheartbevo 90642]

37 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

31 new admits for hospitals in Travis County. 5th straight day of an increase and the highest single day since Aug 15th. 133 hospitalizations total which is the highest since Aug 31st.

This better not impact schools, because I’m going to get pretty ragey with the fucking no-mask idiots if my kids have to come home.  

[atomheartbevo 90642]

37 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I just noticed in the detailed data report for Dallas there is fine print that reads:  "{Note: Due to a database system changeover, hospitalization data for Week 39- 41 are delayed, but is anticipated to be fully included next week.}".  Considering data for those weeks already show to be "flat" it's almost certain hospitalizations have been rising and just not reflected in the data.  Absolutely fucking ridiculous that 9+ months into this thing we can't even get reporting figured out.   What a joke.

It’s a feature, not a bug!

[BrazilHorn 6842]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This better not impact schools, because I’m going to get pretty ragey with the fucking no-mask idiots if my kids have to come home.  

I think we are still in stage 3. May impact school sports. 

[BrazilHorn 6842]

Speaking of schools. Here is the latest roll up from TEA in terms of CV19 information.

~2.1M kids in school as of 9/28 (CV19 reporting is through 10/20 however)

There were in total 2,302 cases last week among students and 1,201 among staff. Only 126 of these 3,503 cases are attributed to being on campus (to be fair a decent number aren't attributed at all). Only 3.51% of cases have been verified to have been caught on campus. 0.11% of the total student population caught CV19 last week at all.

(or at least have a positive test)

If I hold staff numbers flat at the 800k number from school reopening there were 0.15% of staff that caught CV19 last week overall.

The total numbers since reopening look like:

Students 7,331 (0.34% Have caught CV19 (not at school but at all))

Staff 3,876 (0.48% Have caught CV19 (not at school but at all))

We send our 11 year old back next week and our 13 year old back 11/2 (once middle schools start to actually change class etc)

I don't believe that based on the last 5 weeks of data I have been tracking from TEA that there is a material risk to them going back (more so than from other shit they have caught at school over the years: flu, pinkeye, strep etc)

You all can decide how you see fit. Just sharing the data and my logic towards it. Totally appreciate it is an individual decision.

-edit AISD has had 23 cases between staff and students with 0 of them having been confirmed as happening on campus.

Edited October 22, 2020 by BrazilHorn
included AISD info

[Js1 87179]

6 hours ago, kevwun said:

Has there been any more news about the study that said a certain Neanderthal gene could make you more likely to have a bad case of the virus?

Anyone check on Chris Ash? 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

-edit AISD has had 23 cases between staff and students with 0 of them having been confirmed as happening on campus.

My kid has been going since they reopened, and they were very limited for the first two weeks (around half-a-dozen kids) , then opened up more last week and this week (think his class has over a dozen kids now).

November 2, AISD opens up to any and all kids whose parents want them to return.

Insert two-week joke here.

[BrazilHorn 6842]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

My kid has been going since they reopened, and they were very limited for the first two weeks (around half-a-dozen kids) , then opened up more last week and this week (think his class has over a dozen kids now).

November 2, AISD opens up to any and all kids whose parents want them to return.

Insert two-week joke here.

Fingers crossed. We are sending our 11 year old back a week earlier than 11/2 just because he needs it. Our 8th grader has a little more discipline and wants to wait until they actually are switching classes etc.

 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

6 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Fingers crossed. We are sending our 11 year old back a week earlier than 11/2 just because he needs it. Our 8th grader has a little more discipline and wants to wait until they actually are switching classes etc.

One of our kids' teachers said the majority of kids whose parents wanted them back at their school, for now, are back, and that we won't see substantially more in-person students until later this year, assuming things die down, or next year.

[BrazilHorn 6842]

99 cases yesterday for Travis County so still in the 0-100 range Travis has moved to. 20 admits (down from 31 the prior day) so hopefully we see progress here in future days.

Skewing a hair younger yesterday on the case load but not overwhelmingly so.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/22 vs 10/21	2	5	14	24	21	14	9	5	3	2	99
% of Daily Change	2.02%	5.05%	14.14%	24.24%	21.21%	14.14%	9.09%	5.05%	3.03%	2.02%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.92%	9.55%	26.97%	20.81%	15.85%	11.37%	6.45%	3.25%	2.31%	31,327

[smoky 842]

Did the Travis county tracker stop reporting cases by zip code?

[kevwun 16437]

I believe that the addresses of positive cases may be another piece of data that the Counties get from DSHS.

[BrazilHorn 6842]

This is view from weekend as having both my kids playing select baseball is a time consuming mother fucker on the weekends.

224 cases over the three days, with no single day over 100, so Travis county is staying below my unofficial <100 buoyancy point that they have moved into. Hospital admits though still shitty with Travis County averaging ~20 (19.66) over the weekend. While we have fewer overall cases for whatever reason people are sure headed to hospital a lot more (even though cases have been skewing younger). Our rolling 7 day admits to cases is 26.05% vs (~15% pandemic to date) so we are seeing a significant uptick in admits. What I don't know is are people from smaller towns and different counties coming to Austin for better care and this getting counted in admits numbers, but it is a weird trend for sure.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/25 vs 10/22	1	9	27	71	51	25	21	13	4	2	224
% of Daily Change	0.45%	4.02%	12.05%	31.70%	22.77%	11.16%	9.38%	5.80%	1.79%	0.89%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.93%	9.57%	27.01%	20.82%	15.82%	11.35%	6.44%	3.24%	2.30%	31,551

[BrazilHorn 6842]

From a deaths perspective for Travis County there were only 4 last week It is interesting, starting in October we have seen a dramatic drop in number of deaths each week. From July to Sept there wasn't a single week below double digits. From week of 9/25 until now we have seen only one week in double digits.

There hasn't been a single death under 49 years old since the week ending 10/3. Those >60 make up 81.55% of all deaths in Travis County pandemic to date.

	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total Deaths	WoW Change
W/E 7/11	0	3	4	7	17	34	45	58	168
W/E 7/18	0	2	4	9	21	37	55	75	203	35
W/E 7/25	0	2	4	10	27	47	58	93	241	38
W/E 8/1	0	2	6	11	35	56	63	103	276	35
W/E 8/8	1	2	6	11	36	64	65	113	298	22
W/E 8/15	1	2	6	13	39	74	77	124	336	38
W/E 8/22	1	2	6	14	43	78	84	130	358	22
W/E 8/29	1	2	7	14	46	80	93	138	381	23
W/E 9/12	1	2	7	15	47	88	98	145	403	22
W/E 9/19	1	3	7	15	49	88	101	151	415	12
W/E 9/25	1	3	7	15	52	90	104	151	423	8
w/e 10/3	1	3	7	16	52	91	109	151	430	7
w/e 10/10	1	3	7	16	54	95	111	155	442	12
w/e 10/17	1	3	7	16	54	95	111	159	446	4
w/e 10/24	1	3	7	16	56	95	111	161	450	4