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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Another day >100 cases for Travis County. If this continues to Friday I will move "buoyancy line" back to 100-200 cases/day expectation.

178 cases yesterday spread very close to the normal share of case loads pandemic to date. 24 admits again. We are admitting people at a rapid clip. Effectively in terms of admits and hospitalizations we have gone back to the end of August numbers. We are still within 10-39 admits/day range for stage 3 for city of Austin. Disappointing thing is we were flirting with Stage 2 for a little bit but that is way in rearview mirror now.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/10 vs 11/9 1 3 17 52 43 20 20 11 6 5 178
% of Daily Change 0.56% 1.69% 9.55% 29.21% 24.16% 11.24% 11.24% 6.18% 3.37% 2.81%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.91% 9.67% 27.28% 20.83% 15.61% 11.29% 6.42% 3.23% 2.24%   33,559
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23390

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Austin's 7 day average case numbers and daily hospitalization numbers are looking really similar to the middle two weeks of June, right before the big rise.

Now would be a great time to stop breathing on each other.

 

I had the same thought when I looked at the counts this evening.  I think I also had the same thought ca. mid Aug to early September. I hope that we are just having a spike driven by halloween and we can get our shit back together and wait for the post Tday spike.  Otherwise this shit could get nasty quick. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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I had the same thought when I looked at the counts this evening.  I think I also had the same thought ca. mid Aug to early September. I hope that we are just having a spike driven by halloween and we can get our shit back together and wait for the post Tday spike.  Otherwise this shit could get nasty quick. 
Right now we're still being blessed with good outdoor weather. I fear that Thanksgiving will give us a spike leading into a consistent cold weather climb right into Christmas and New Year's which are going to be shit shows.
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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11669

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Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

These two groups need to get their fucking shit together. 

its brutally obvious these age groups partied like it was 1999 on a Saturday Halloween.  

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Let’s face it: this disease isn’t deadly enough for this age group for most of them to give a shit. 

and thats kind of the problem.  

You watch every college football game with students in the stands and they are packing themselves in to whatever section they have been assigned to every fucking time.   I was in the Cotton Bowl 2 sections over from the students, they were packed butts to nuts to ham it up everytime the on field camera scanned the student section. 

 

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utee94

utee94 15744

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BradInATX said:
8 hours ago, Anastasis said:
I had the same thought when I looked at the counts this evening.  I think I also had the same thought ca. mid Aug to early September. I hope that we are just having a spike driven by halloween and we can get our shit back together and wait for the post Tday spike.  Otherwise this shit could get nasty quick. 

Right now we're still being blessed with good outdoor weather. I fear that Thanksgiving will give us a spike leading into a consistent cold weather climb right into Christmas and New Year's which are going to be shit shows.

Yeah, I'm starting to fear this same thing.  

It's the indoor gatherings that are going to be the problem. We're planning Tday at my parents' house, immediate family only, completely outside.  Hopefully the weather is mild and dry, but they have a large covered patio and we have fire pits, and outdoor heaters if not.  We've done basically this same type of gathering most holidays since Father's Day.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Welp another day, more bad news for Travis County. With that said 210 cases yesterday for Travis County with 70 of them in the 20 to 29 age group. 34 admits yesterday which is the highest single day admits since 8/15. 156 people in the hospital which is the highest since 8/27. 34 puts Austin in Stage 4 range if we continue to trend >30 for next week or so, which is no good. Deaths have been low past couple of weeks even as admits have been ramping. Will be very curious to see what they look like this week. Based on mortality rates to date in terms of cases they still should be on lower end. Crazy times. Stay safe Surly friends.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/11 vs 11/10 1 2 24 70 40 32 22 15 5 -1 210
% of Daily Change 0.48% 0.95% 11.43% 33.33% 19.05% 15.24% 10.48% 7.14% 2.38% -0.48%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.90% 9.68% 27.32% 20.81% 15.61% 11.29% 6.43% 3.22% 2.23%   33,769

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
Yeah, I'm starting to fear this same thing.  
It's the indoor gatherings that are going to be the problem. We're planning Tday at my parents' house, immediate family only, completely outside.  Hopefully the weather is mild and dry, but they have a large covered patio and we have fire pits, and outdoor heaters if not.  We've done basically this same type of gathering most holidays since Father's Day.
Nice. We're using Covid and my wife being third trimester to avoid our annual 4 Christmases (both sets of parents are divorced) tour of Texas. One of the very few positives from Covid
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

These two groups need to get their fucking shit together. 

Speaking of folks who need to get their shit together, Williamson County, come on down!

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/williamson-county-moves-to-covid-19-orange-phase-due-to-high-level-of-community-spread/

Williamson County moves to COVID-19 orange phase due to high level of community spread

Quote

According to Williamson County & Cities Health District, the county has reached the second-highest level (with the red level indicating an “uncontrolled” spread) after the seven-day average rate of new infections increased from 6.88 to 9.22 per 100,000 residents in just one week.

Under orange phase, personal social gatherings of more than five people should be avoided, as should gatherings in city parks. 

Quote

Also effective Wednesday, the health district will be reporting the prior day’s data to allow time for more quality assurance checks, after it identified around 600 confirmed and 800 probable cases between July and October that were unintentionally left out from its reports.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

Posted
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Speaking of Williamson County

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/kalahari-resort-complete-with-worlds-largest-indoor-waterpark-opens-amid-pandemic/

Quote

Kalahari Resort opens its doors Thursday in Round Rock.

The resort offers more than 900 rooms and other attractions, like a theme park and a gigantic water park — both indoors.

Quote

“It’s America’s largest indoor water park resort,” said Tim Arnold, Kalahari Resort general manager.

Quote

“The resort is 1.5 million square feet, so we have plenty of room to social distance,” Arnold said.

Arnold says without COVID-19 capacity limits they could accommodate 7,000-8,000 guests, but that number is down to 3,000 because of the pandemic.

“It is the number one priority that we keep families safe,” Arnold said. “All guests are required to wear masks.”

Guests won’t be required to wear masks in the pools, or when sliding down slides in the waterpark.

Quote

Arnold says they will enforce social distancing on the rides and in the water, and they will also limit the water park to no more than 500 people at a time.

On the one hand, swimming pools seem pretty safe.  On the other hand, this will be packed to the largest capacity they allow, because a shitload of people are probably stir crazy at this point.

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Captainant

Captainant 27403

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Posted
9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of Williamson County

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/kalahari-resort-complete-with-worlds-largest-indoor-waterpark-opens-amid-pandemic/

On the one hand, swimming pools seem pretty safe.  On the other hand, this will be packed to the largest capacity they allow, because a shitload of people are probably stir crazy at this point.

TBH, if they just mist their chlorinated water 24/7 and blast artificial UV light that would be a pretty effective disinfectant for the airborne virus.

Still 100% regarded to open an indoor waterpark in the middle of a pandemic, but hey it's not like we've been making good decisions so far anyways right?

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

TBH, if they just mist their chlorinated water 24/7 and blast artificial UV light that would be a pretty effective disinfectant for the airborne virus.

Still 100% regarded to open an indoor waterpark in the middle of a pandemic, but hey it's not like we've been making good decisions so far anyways right?

Yep - If you and your family go to this right now you should consider yourself to be dramatically ramping up your likelihood of catching CV19. Opening this right now is a bad idea.

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utee94

utee94 15744

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Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:
3 hours ago, utee94 said:
Yeah, I'm starting to fear this same thing.  
It's the indoor gatherings that are going to be the problem. We're planning Tday at my parents' house, immediate family only, completely outside.  Hopefully the weather is mild and dry, but they have a large covered patio and we have fire pits, and outdoor heaters if not.  We've done basically this same type of gathering most holidays since Father's Day.

Nice. We're using Covid and my wife being third trimester to avoid our annual 4 Christmases (both sets of parents are divorced) tour of Texas. One of the very few positives from Covid

Ha.  Well, silver linings and all.

I actually love spending the holidays with my family, and my inlaws too.  I'm never a candidate for the "Horrible Holiday Family Stories" thread or whatever it's called.  But, I do become horrified reading some of those stories, so I totally get it. :)

 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The last public thing my family did was a trip to Great Wolf Lodge in late February. Immediately after, a global pandemic started. Coincidence? I doubt it.

You're just lucky you didn't get Legionnaire's Disease or something worse.  Everyone in my old Dallas neighborhood has a "mysterious rash all over that looked like chicken pox" or "threw up for x days" story from that place's indoor waterpark.

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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 24807

Posted
Posted (edited)

Official Texas DSHS numbers

The TX Department of State Health Services (DSHS) 

 

  • DSHS is currently reporting a total of 974,230 cases of COVID-19 in the State of Texas
  • 18,863 confirmed COVID-19 related fatalities in Texas
  • 253 of 254 Texas counties have reported cases of COVID-19
  • Currently, 12.9% of all hospital patients in Texas have COVID-19
Edited by MissingInAction
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Here is an interesting view in terms of hospitalizations on 1st day of a given month vs last day. Lets you see the change start to end in a given month. I included Nov with an asterisk as it is only through the 11th.  June was an absolute shit show that spilled into July and early Aug.

  Hospitalizations Start of Month Hospitalizations End of Month Change
April 56 92 36.00
May 88 81 (7.00)
June 93 369 276.00
July 376 338 (38.00)
Aug 321 136 (185.00)
Sep 113 79 (34.00)
Oct 83 97 14.00
Nov* 105 156 51.00
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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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Posted
1 hour ago, justhookit said:

We are fucked. Again. So pissed off at people right now. See y’all back on this thread in December when everything is closed again.

The end game was always herd immunity or vaccination, whichever comes first.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104537

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6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

The end game was always herd immunity or vaccination, whichever comes first.

Yep.  Till then, the roller coaster of peak, lull, peak, lull, peak.....was exactly what every epidemiologist told us would happen.  And, it's not like they were going out on a limb -- this is what viruses do.

Our preventative measures can slow the spread, keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed (but clearly, we can't fully accomplish that goal).....until the disease burns out via herd immunity or the artificial herd immunity created by vaccination.

I'm actually hopeful that the world, seeing that we can't fucking beat this disease otherwise -- it's going to keep flaring up and totally fucking us -- will be eager and willing to take the vaccine sooner rather than later.

Want to have commerce and business return to near-normal?  There is no path that gets us there before 2022-23 that doesn't involve a high percentage of the population getting vaccinated.  

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5067

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Well my niece works for a Dermatologist, here in Granbury. That motherfucker came in with full blown symptoms and apparently infected everyone that works there. She said she woke up with a mild fever. Her fiancé works with CHIEF Jr., so all three of them are down at the urgent care facility sitting on the curb outside, waiting to getting tested. I think CHIEF Jr. will test negative since they work outdoors, but fuck that guy.

CHIEF

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dcar00

dcar00 14028

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  Till then, the roller coaster of peak, lull, peak, lull, peak.....was exactly what every epidemiologist told us would happen.  And, it's not like they were going out on a limb -- this is what viruses do.

Our preventative measures can slow the spread, keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed (but clearly, we can't fully accomplish that goal).....until the disease burns out via herd immunity or the artificial herd immunity created by vaccination.

I'm actually hopeful that the world, seeing that we can't fucking beat this disease otherwise -- it's going to keep flaring up and totally fucking us -- will be eager and willing to take the vaccine sooner rather than later.

Want to have commerce and business return to near-normal?  There is no path that gets us there before 2022-23 that doesn't involve a high percentage of the population getting vaccinated.  

the modern hospital system isn't and never was built to handle this.  I think tons of people are going to line up for the vaccine.  sure 20 to 30 year olds maybe not but I think a very high percentage of others will.

I do think it might be good to have doctors and nurses rolling through some type of military medical training(maybe it pays off their loans).  like a medical national guard. make it worth their while for a certain period of time either during or after medical school.

Thanks to the docs/nurses/smart folks out there.  they are absolutely taking one for the team.  Fauci says this should end pretty quickly given the vaccine but we have one more hill to take it appears  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23390

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Posted (edited)

If the the projections on production capability by end of the year are to believed, we should have between 30-40MM doses of vax between PFE and MRNA. (ETA: Note 2 doses two weeks apart per person). 

About 17MM healthcare workers in US.  They all get first priority, then where do you go from there?  High risk and elderly populations (vax has not been extensively studied in this population) vs. essential workers?  

Get the EUA's out and start lining people up imo.  

 

Here is a chart of essential workers by industry.

Essential workers by industry, 2019

  Total Percent of industry
All essential workers 55,217,845 100%
Food and agriculture 11,398,233 20.6%
Emergency services 1,849,630 3.3%
Transportation, warehouse, and delivery 3,972,089 7.2%
Industrial, commercial, residential facilities and services 6,806,407 12.3%
Health care 16,679,875 30.2%
Government and community-based services 4,590,070 8.3%
Communications and IT 3,189,140 5.8%
Financial sector 3,070,404 5.6%
Energy sector 1,327,760 2.4%
Water and wastewater management 107,846 0.2%
Chemical sector 271,160 0.5%
Critical manufacturing 1,955,233 3.5%
Edited by Anastasis
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Newdoc

Newdoc 3429

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Median time to onset of symptoms is 4-5 days. 

Unfortunately, although you are correct, the time to diagnosis and reporting of results is really variable across the whole state. We are not seeing infection rates in real time. Some labs are taking as long as 4 to 7 days to report results from time of swab collection. Of course, with rapid antigen testing ramping up we are seeing results much more quickly. I don’t know that the state is handling all the variables well.

But it is logical to assume that some of what we are seeing is from election activities. Covid doesn’t magically disappear when a certain party is elected and people spill into the streets to celebrate, masked or not.

Edited by Newdoc
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104537

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If the the projections on production capability by end of the year are to believed, we should have between 30-40MM doses of vax between PFE and MRNA. (ETA: Note 2 doses two weeks apart per person). 

About 17MM healthcare workers in US.  They all get first priority, then where do you go from there?  High risk and elderly populations (vax has not been extensively studied in this population) vs. essential workers?  

Get the EUA's out and start lining people up imo.  

 

Here is a chart of essential workers by industry.

Essential workers by industry, 2019

  Total Percent of industry
All essential workers 55,217,845 100%
Food and agriculture 11,398,233 20.6%
Emergency services 1,849,630 3.3%
Transportation, warehouse, and delivery 3,972,089 7.2%
Industrial, commercial, residential facilities and services 6,806,407 12.3%
Health care 16,679,875 30.2%
Government and community-based services 4,590,070 8.3%
Communications and IT 3,189,140 5.8%
Financial sector 3,070,404 5.6%
Energy sector 1,327,760 2.4%
Water and wastewater management 107,846 0.2%
Chemical sector 271,160 0.5%
Critical manufacturing 1,955,233 3.5%

 I heard (yeah, hearsay) that TCSO officers are being told to expect to be vaccinated in early January - first responders are among the top priority.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23390

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Unfortunately, although you are correct, the time to diagnosis and reporting of results is really variable across the whole state. We are not seeing infection rates in real time. Some labs are taking as long as 4 to 7 days to report results from time of swab collection. Of course, with rapid antigen testing ramping up we are seeing results much more quickly. I don’t know that the state is handling all the variables well.

But it is logical to assume that some of what we are seeing is from election activities. Covid doesn’t magically disappear when a certain party is elected and people spill into the streets to celebrate, masked or not.

Right, seems that there are at least 3 time variables here.  Time from exposure to sxs onset, time from sxs onset to test, and time from test to result. Appears that average time from test to result for PCR in october was 1-2 days if you believe labcorp and quest, but it is obviously a distribution. One of my kids got a rapid test today with results back in 20 minutes or so, time from a low grade fever spike to test in our case was ~11 hours, time from sxs onset to test ~12h.  That's about as short of a lag time possible. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 I heard (yeah, hearsay) that TCSO officers are being told to expect to be vaccinated in early January - first responders are among the top priority.

I think I said this on the CR Covid thread, but I know one of the majors in CenTex healthcare is already putting a process in place and taking census for it. They're not screwing around.

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

If the the projections on production capability by end of the year are to believed, we should have between 30-40MM doses of vax between PFE and MRNA. (ETA: Note 2 doses two weeks apart per person). 

About 17MM healthcare workers in US.  They all get first priority, then where do you go from there?  High risk and elderly populations (vax has not been extensively studied in this population) vs. essential workers?  

Get the EUA's out and start lining people up imo.  

 

Here is a chart of essential workers by industry.

Essential workers by industry, 2019

  Total Percent of industry
All essential workers 55,217,845 100%
Food and agriculture 11,398,233 20.6%
Emergency services 1,849,630 3.3%
Transportation, warehouse, and delivery 3,972,089 7.2%
Industrial, commercial, residential facilities and services 6,806,407 12.3%
Health care 16,679,875 30.2%
Government and community-based services 4,590,070 8.3%
Communications and IT 3,189,140 5.8%
Financial sector 3,070,404 5.6%
Energy sector 1,327,760 2.4%
Water and wastewater management 107,846 0.2%
Chemical sector 271,160 0.5%
Critical manufacturing 1,955,233 3.5%

Financial sector is “essential”, hahaha. America...

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

If the the projections on production capability by end of the year are to believed, we should have between 30-40MM doses of vax between PFE and MRNA. (ETA: Note 2 doses two weeks apart per person). 

About 17MM healthcare workers in US.  They all get first priority, then where do you go from there?  High risk and elderly populations (vax has not been extensively studied in this population) vs. essential workers?  

I'll be the dick and say vaccinate the healthcare works, EMTs, firefighters, and then dole it out to teachers and school staff, to help keep the schools open.

It's not that I hate old people, it's that we have the means to isolate those folks for a few more months, whether it be in nursing homes, or setting up food and necessity deliveries to their homes.  

One of the biggest problems we had in the spring psychologically and economically, is all of the sudden a shitload of kids were home instead of at school, and same back in August/September (and many are still at home or schools are having to shut down as staff gets exposed).  If we can keep our teachers/staff in the schools going, and keep those schools open, that would be a huge help to the economy, and to parents.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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BillyGoatHill

BillyGoatHill 4276

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 I heard (yeah, hearsay) that TCSO officers are being told to expect to be vaccinated in early January - first responders are among the top priority.

 

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'll be the dick and say vaccinate the healthcare works, EMTs, firefighters, and then dole it out to teachers and school staff, to help keep the schools open.

It's not that I hate old people, it's that we have the means to isolate those folks for a few more months, whether it be in nursing homes, or setting up food and necessity deliveries to their homes.  

One of the biggest problems we had in the spring psychologically and economically, is all of the sudden a shitload of kids were home instead of at school, and same back in August/September (and many are still at home or schools are having to shut down as staff gets exposed).  If we can keep our teachers/staff in the schools going, and keep those schools open, that would be a huge help to the economy, and to parents.

Sorry,.....I've been a guinea pig before and know plenty of people fucked up from "just hold out your arm, and YOU WILL take these shots/pills, etc..."  

As of now, anyone of you can step in and have my vaccine......"Do I hear 2 best buy coupons?"

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dcar00

dcar00 14028

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'll be the dick and say vaccinate the healthcare works, EMTs, firefighters, and then dole it out to teachers and school staff, to help keep the schools open.

It's not that I hate old people, it's that we have the means to isolate those folks for a few more months, whether it be in nursing homes, or setting up food and necessity deliveries to their homes.  

One of the biggest problems we had in the spring psychologically and economically, is all of the sudden a shitload of kids were home instead of at school, and same back in August/September (and many are still at home or schools are having to shut down as staff gets exposed).  If we can keep our teachers/staff in the schools going, and keep those schools open, that would be a huge help to the economy, and to parents.

the problem is the elderly are the ones the mostly get hospitalized(especially for longer periods).  I'd go healthcare and then elderly.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
the problem is the elderly are the ones the mostly get hospitalized(especially for longer periods).  I'd go healthcare and then elderly.
Yep. Vaccinating those two populations nearly guarantees the stability of our healthcare system going forward which is the biggest and most important first step. Once that happens, we're on the down side of the mountain.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89395

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Sorry,.....I've been a guinea pig before and know plenty of people fucked up from "just hold out your arm, and YOU WILL take these shots/pills, etc..."  

What's a little Thalidomide between friends?

Besides, aggy got $265 million to help manufacture vaccines in Collie Station. I'm sure they won't fuck it up.

I'll talk later, I'm off to have some Blue Bell ice cream.

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