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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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Hpara759

Hpara759 1778

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3 hours ago, smoky said:

Take it for what it's worth... There's a screenshot of a text exchange floating around the facebooks between a user and Austin Public Health confirming that patients transferred into Austin hospitals from outside the area do count against our numbers.
 

I know of a Wilco Co Hospital that has taken in  2 COVID patients from Brownwood...because the hospital there could not find a spot for them in there usual places they transfer ICU patients

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

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49 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

I know of a Wilco Co Hospital that has taken in  2 COVID patients from Brownwood...because the hospital there could not find a spot for them in there usual places they transfer ICU patients

I hope that the admit numbers count those being shipped in from outside of Austin as in looking at early numbers from today Travis County hit 43 admits. First time we have been above 40 since 8/11. Jeez.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I hope that the admit numbers count those being shipped in from outside of Austin as in looking at early numbers from today Travis County hit 43 admits. First time we have been above 40 since 8/11. Jeez.

The lack of transparency regarding what the local data are actually representing is problematic. Nine months into this thing and we don't really even know how to interpret the data. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The lack of transparency regarding what the local data are actually representing is problematic. Nine months into this thing and we don't really even know how to interpret the data. 

Yep - add in the fact that when you track it daily by age group like I do that you can see reductions in numbers within respective age groups (the smaller sized ones) on occasion. Basically showing that there are coding errors when the age of CV19 positive folks are entered. No way of knowing how often that happens, it's just more evident in those groups (<1 year, >80 years old eg)

The data entry, management, stewardship is a mess IMO.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25911

Posted
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48 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I hope that the admit numbers count those being shipped in from outside of Austin as in looking at early numbers from today Travis County hit 43 admits. First time we have been above 40 since 8/11. Jeez.

man, hate the news you are bringing but thank you for doing it.  

 

 

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The lack of transparency regarding what the local data are actually representing is problematic. Nine months into this thing and we don't really even know how to interpret the data. 

They removed pretty much all the data here in Nueces (Corpus) months ago. It’s inexcusable. But hey we hit over 200 new cases today for the first time since the last spike after having it down to the 30’s and 40’s and lower. Nobody is paying attention. These next 2 months are going to suck.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

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Well, as I put out last night, 43 admits yesterday and another 290 cases as well. Heavily set in the younger population  but due to the higher number of cases the "law of big numbers" is starting to take hold where although 60+ make up smaller % of cases because there are so many cases we will still in all likelihood see a higher count of deaths in coming weeks. I am moving the unofficial BrazilHorn "Daily Case Buoyancy Range" to 200-33 cases/day as for the past 14 days we have avg in Travis County ~220 cases/day. Crazy to think that not long ago we were <100 cases/day.

213 people are in Travis County hospitals. We are currently operating at mid-August levels. If we can hold here as "ceiling" until the end of calendar year I will consider that a success (albeit a really shitty one) as I can easily see this going exponential and mimicking mid-July levels which were a total shitshow. The fact that 8+ months into this pandemic people are still quibbling over masks and still throwing weddings & large events is just amazing to me.  Be safe, smart & do the right thing.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/19  vs 11/18 1 12 36 84 62 42 25 17 7 4 290
% of Daily Change 0.34% 4.14% 12.41% 28.97% 21.38% 14.48% 8.62% 5.86% 2.41% 1.38%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.97% 9.66% 27.47% 20.78% 15.52% 11.23% 6.46% 3.22% 2.18%   35,616
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Posted
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11 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The lack of transparency regarding what the local data are actually representing is problematic. Nine months into this thing and we don't really even know how to interpret  manipulate the data. 

Indeed.

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6252

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

213 people are in Travis County hospitals. We are currently operating at mid-August levels. If we can hold here as "ceiling" until the end of calendar year I will consider that a success (albeit a really shitty one) as I can easily see this going exponential and mimicking mid-July levels which were a total shitshow. 

We won't hold it.  Hospitalizations spikes due to widespread covid have followed a pretty predictable pattern around the US and the world.  They tend to last about 6-8 weeks. El Paso has peaked, as has much of the midwest.  Similar in Europe, though I'm basing that on case counts.  Our uptick started later, so it will end later.  We have at least ~3 weeks more of increasing hospitalizations, so prepare thyself for that.   I'm basing this just on observations of past patterns, so usual caveats apply.  

The good (?) news is that our local hospitals held up reasonably well during the summer spike, so there's a good chance they will again.  

Edited by bschoolprof
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15290

Posted
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1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

Isn't that what she's there for? Unless she plays the "my jaw hurts," card.

Never should have broken up with that girl I met on 6th street with a flat head and big ears.....how do you get rid of a beer coaster and handles that likes to party

Edited by BabaYaga
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15290

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15 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

We won't hold it.  Hospitalizations spikes due to widespread covid have followed a pretty predictable pattern around the US and the world.  They tend to last about 6-8 weeks. El Paso has peaked, as has much of the midwest.  Similar in Europe, though I'm basing that on case counts.  Our uptick started later, so it will end later.  We have at least ~3 weeks more of increasing hospitalizations, so prepare thyself for that.   I'm basing this just on observations of past patterns, so usual caveats apply.  

The good (?) news is that our local hospitals held up reasonably well during the summer spike, so there's a good chance they will again.  

tumblr_inline_pj8j3poOKc1uv94as_500.gifv0fa7e563fbbe85c2dd0cce8b1b29173e.gif

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

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1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

We won't hold it.  Hospitalizations spikes due to widespread covid have followed a pretty predictable pattern around the US and the world.  They tend to last about 6-8 weeks. El Paso has peaked, as has much of the midwest.  Similar in Europe, though I'm basing that on case counts.  Our uptick started later, so it will end later.  We have at least ~3 weeks more of increasing hospitalizations, so prepare thyself for that.   I'm basing this just on observations of past patterns, so usual caveats apply.  

The good (?) news is that our local hospitals held up reasonably well during the summer spike, so there's a good chance they will again.  

I am afraid you are right. I actually am not that worried about local hospitals holding up as I don't see us hitting the "jailbreak" numbers Travis County had this summer which occurred right when Abbott opened bars etc back up.

I can see us pushing 300-350 people in the hospital but I don't see us (unless adders from rural/El Paso type deals happen) hitting the mid-400s like we were in July.

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Skipper

Skipper 6133

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

I am afraid you are right. I actually am not that worried about local hospitals holding up as I don't see us hitting the "jailbreak" numbers Travis County had this summer which occurred right when Abbott opened bars etc back up.

I can see us pushing 300-350 people in the hospital but I don't see us (unless adders from rural/El Paso type deals happen) hitting the mid-400s like we were in July.

Austin seems like it's about 3-4 weeks behind Dallas.  I thought the same here but exponential growth happens fast.   Dallas will almost certainly be back to peak levels soon ( all the other North Texas counties here already are).  Of course, maybe Austin citizens are just being more careful and it can stay at a manageable level.

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South Austin

South Austin 52473

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Posted

Shit, I'm going to call off my folks from coming down for Thanksgiving.  I'd planned on quarantining with my kids starting this evening to make the Thanksgiving gathering safer -- staying home except for neighborhood walks and grocery runs, no play dates for the kids, etc.  But my dad recently started chemotherapy, and unfortunately his next appointment is the day before Thanksgiving, and with his white blood cell count zapped by the treatments, it's just too big a risk.  I get the sense my folks were getting nervous at the recent numbers but wanted to tough it out for their son and grandkids, and they may be relieved that I'm calling it off.  Fucking sucks.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25911

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24 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Shit, I'm going to call off my folks from coming down for Thanksgiving.  I'd planned on quarantining with my kids starting this evening to make the Thanksgiving gathering safer -- staying home except for neighborhood walks and grocery runs, no play dates for the kids, etc.  But my dad recently started chemotherapy, and unfortunately his next appointment is the day before Thanksgiving, and with his white blood cell count zapped by the treatments, it's just too big a risk.  I get the sense my folks were getting nervous at the recent numbers but wanted to tough it out for their son and grandkids, and they may be relieved that I'm calling it off.  Fucking sucks.

I went into 1 week isolation preparing for 14 days before going to see my step mom (Stage 4), and called it off today. I have 1 project coordinator who comes and works at the house. That is all. She comes over for 3 days of work and sleeps in the guest side for 2 nights. Good protocol I thought until she informed me she had 5 friends over a few night ago, and one said after her 3rd or 10th glass of cheap wine she was exposed. so my 14 day count restarted today. So tired of this shit. 

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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We won't hold it.  Hospitalizations spikes due to widespread covid have followed a pretty predictable pattern around the US and the world.  They tend to last about 6-8 weeks. El Paso has peaked, as has much of the midwest.  Similar in Europe, though I'm basing that on case counts.  Our uptick started later, so it will end later.  We have at least ~3 weeks more of increasing hospitalizations, so prepare thyself for that.   I'm basing this just on observations of past patterns, so usual caveats apply.  
The good (?) news is that our local hospitals held up reasonably well during the summer spike, so there's a good chance they will again.  

"There's certainly no way we'll have an extended second spike, or a third spike", say the experts who gave us hits such as "once you get a first spike you don't get a second" and "Sweden... They did it right!".
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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1 hour ago, El Diablo said:

Yeah, my sister (who does not photograph well) is coming from Kansas this weekend and a brother coming from Houston next weekend, both want to go out to eat while they're here. Not a fan of that idea.

Where in Kansas, just out of curiosity?  We got some in-laws from there moving about and that whole place just seems like a shit-show right now, and that's saying something considering how bad many patches of Texas are right now.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

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Nightly pre-wire ahead of tomorrow's age demographic breakout.

For Friday Travis County had 368 cases, 37 new admits. Interestingly enough we dropped by one in terms of the number of people hospitalized (212 vs 213)

So assuming no mass die off (which based on the ages that have been spiking is unlikely), the hospitals are moving people through pretty quick.

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El Diablo

El Diablo 4232

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

Where in Kansas, just out of curiosity?  We got some in-laws from there moving about and that whole place just seems like a shit-show right now, and that's saying something considering how bad many patches of Texas are right now.  

Newton, north side of Wichita. We haven't talked about the 'Rona lately, I do know that when the rest of the country was heating up they were still without a single case. BIL is a retired hospital exec there and will know what the numbers are in their locale. I'll pick his brain. 

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F250

F250 28768

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5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I have 1 project coordinator who comes and works at the house. That is all. She comes over for 3 days of work and sleeps in the guest side for 2 nights.

Where does one acquire one of these female "project coordinators"?

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

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368 cases yesterday in Travis County with a fairly standard distribution across the age groups (in comparison to the pandemic to date share). 37 admits and we now have 212 folks in hospitals (down one from prior day)

Hang on to your jocks fellas as it is ramping up.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/20  vs 11/19 1 11 29 109 74 54 51 26 11 2 368
% of Daily Change 0.27% 2.99% 7.88% 29.62% 20.11% 14.67% 13.86% 7.07% 2.99% 0.54%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 2.97% 9.64% 27.49% 20.77% 15.51% 11.26% 6.47% 3.22% 2.17%   35,984
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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6786

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My husband is doing his clinicals right now in Tulsa for his CRNA program and is considering canceling his trip down here for thanksgiving 😞. A part of me thinks it’s for the best, the other part of me thinks we’ll be ok if he comes. Thanksgiving is just going to be my roomie, MIL, him, and myself. I don’t know what to do. 

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Errestaurants

Errestaurants 2570

Posted
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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

My husband is doing his clinicals right now in Tulsa for his CRNA program and is considering canceling his trip down here for thanksgiving 😞. A part of me thinks it’s for the best, the other part of me thinks we’ll be ok if he comes. Thanksgiving is just going to be my roomie, MIL, him, and myself. I don’t know what to do. 

Don't feel bad y'all going to be rich. Like surly rich when he's finished 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89654

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Furk.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/over-100-texas-counties-entering-thanksgiving-week-at-red-level-covid-19-tipping-point/

Quote

Thanksgiving week may be a critical, or even dangerous, tipping point for at least 100 Texas counties.

New data from Harvard University shows at least 120 Lone Star State counties are now at red-level COVID-19 risk level — meaning they currently have 25 or more cases per 100,000 people. 

Quote

Harris County leads in Texas and is fifth nationally for number of confirmed cases, with 178,811. The county is home to Houston, the fourth-largest city in the U.S. It ranks 10th nationally in number of deaths, with 2,943 fatalities reported as of Saturday.

Dallas County, which includes Dallas, follows Harris as number two in numbers of cases, with 113,754. Tarrant County follows third, statewide, with 87,536 cases.

According to the Harvard risk dashboard, ‘tipping point’ level suggests stay-at-home orders are necessary. 

Quote

Despite surging numbers, however, Gov. Greg Abbott said earlier this week that no more lockdowns are going to happen.

In an interview on a Dallas radio show, Gov. Abbott said: “We are not going to have any more lockdowns in the state of Texas. Our focal point is gonna be working to heal those who have COVID, get them out of hospitals quickly, make sure they get back to their normal lives.”

 

 

 

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2103

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

My husband is doing his clinicals right now in Tulsa for his CRNA program and is considering canceling his trip down here for thanksgiving 😞. A part of me thinks it’s for the best, the other part of me thinks we’ll be ok if he comes. Thanksgiving is just going to be my roomie, MIL, him, and myself. I don’t know what to do. 

He has to celebrate his Thanksgiving in Tulsa. 

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Deej

Deej 76759

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Tell her friend that she might as well make a list of everybody that attended, along with contact information, since the contact tracers will be getting in touch with her sometime in December.

And the woman's husband was just diagnosed with lung cancer. People are so fucking stupid. 

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B00M

B00M 6415

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Deej said:

And the woman's husband was just diagnosed with lung cancer. People are so fucking stupid. 

Maybe that's driving the irrational decision making... I'm just surprised any adult knows 40 people that are free for Thanksgiving and that selfish and dumb

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