COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Look ahead for today's aggregate results: 191 cases for Travis County (vs 300 last Saturday). 205 in hospital (down from 212 Friday), 25 admits.

Will break out demographics tomorrow once posted.

[Deej 76882]

47 minutes ago, B00M said:

Maybe that's driving the irrational decision making... I'm just surprised any adult knows 40 people that are free for Thanksgiving and that selfish and dumb

They do live up near Waco.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

4 hours ago, Deej said:

And the woman's husband was just diagnosed with lung cancer. People are so fucking stupid. 

So he’s leaving everything to her in the will, I take it?

[atomheartbevo 89775]

Texas National Guard unit being deployed to El Paso to help with mortuary duties. 

[3adays 454]

52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas National Guard unit being deployed to El Paso to help with mortuary duties. 

Are we out of the free prison labor they were using? 

[mdmost 43014]

They're probably all sick already. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

7 hours ago, Deej said:

One of my mom's friends is planning on having 40 people for Thanksgiving. WTF?

 

6 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

only thing I can think of is  ask her where she would like to be buried?  not in a mean way, but to set the expectation that is a fucking horrible idea.

A bit macabre, but that was a bit circulating on social media this week: plan a noisy celebration for Thanksgiving but plan a quiet funeral for Christmas. The timing is about right, apparently. Ugh, I hate to think of it. One of our neighbors lost her husband right about this time a couple of years ago and we've been checking up on her because it isn't something one just 'gets' over. I can understand people believing 'well, I might not be here next year so I want to see my family' but no need to make it a roulette by having everyone home at once.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Combo post with the Travis County age demographic data and deaths for last week.

191 cases yesterday, heavily concentrated in <30 groupings. 25 hospital admits with total of 205 folks in the hospital. There were 10 deaths last week all from folks >50.

Deaths broke out as follows: 50-59 (1), 60 - 69 (6), 70 - 79 (1), 80+ (2). Overall deaths in Travis County from 60+ make up ~82% of all deaths to date.

While cases skewing younger overall bodes well for mortality, the challenge is the "law of big numbers" has taken hold the past couple of weeks with the overall case numbers being large the absolute numbers of >60 folks having CV19 increases even though their % share has been lower than their normal contribution.

Stay safe this week my surly friends.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/21  vs 11/20	2	7	32	61	34	22	18	11	2	2	191
% of Daily Change	1.05%	3.66%	16.75%	31.94%	17.80%	11.52%	9.42%	5.76%	1.05%	1.05%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.97%	9.68%	27.51%	20.76%	15.49%	11.25%	6.46%	3.21%	2.16%	36,175

[Planet Houston 4930]

Sorry wrong thread

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Planet Houston

[B00M 6436]

38 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Sorry wrong thread

 

Hey at least it wasn't milf porn amirite?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

So Europe is trending down.  I expect we will also in the next week.  The “see, it’s seasonal, what we do doesn’t matter”crowd will boldly proclaim their theory proven. 

Then the next week or two after the Thanksgiving numbers will start to hit.  Then Christmas.  Then NYE.  

Add the fact that people are scared of the vaccine and the predicted EOY issues that could happen without economic stimulus, and we’re potentially looking at a pretty rough Q1 2021.  

Gonna go buy FCOJ.  

 

[dcar00 14324]

20 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So Europe is trending down.  I expect we will also in the next week.  The “see, it’s seasonal, what we do doesn’t matter”crowd will boldly proclaim their theory proven. 

Then the next week or two after the Thanksgiving numbers will start to hit.  Then Christmas.  Then NYE.  

Add the fact that people are scared of the vaccine and the predicted EOY issues that could happen without economic stimulus, and we’re potentially looking at a pretty rough Q1 2021.  

Gonna go buy FCOJ.  

 

given the usual timeline, I think the cases still rise but slower for another 2 weeks.  then the drop.  hopefully these treatments do the job of reducing the hospitalization times and of course deaths.  I think a lot of people will sign up for the vax but younger folks will wait.  I think there is a very small but loud number that are "scared" of the vax.  it doesn't help that some in high positions question it.

Edited November 22, 2020 by dcar00

[Deej 76882]

As the younger people seem to be the ones spreading this thing, might it be a good idea to vaccinate them early?

[dcar00 14324]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

As the younger people seem to be the ones spreading this thing, might it be a good idea to vaccinate them early?

they are spreading it amongst themselves mostly.  It has to be healthcare and then elderly first.

[Armybrat 40866]

Bring it

[dcar00 14324]

11 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Bring it

anyone born in the 1840's gets it before healthcare

[Pato del Muerto 52555]

Young people will develop a localized herd immunity. Older folks get vaccinated. Two pronged attack. 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Look at today's overall numbers (will have age demo data tomorrow)

261 cases for Travis County, 32 admits, 210 people in the hospital (up from 205 yesterday)

 

[BrazilHorn 6628]

ok first I would like to congratulate the 20-29 age group for being the 1st group in Travis County to break the 10,000 case mark!!

Here is yesterday's age breakout. Heavily skewed <40. As noted above 32 admits and 210 people in the hospital. We are churning people out of the hospital rapidly.

Stay frosty folks!

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/22  vs 11/21	0	13	21	86	62	28	28	13	7	3	261
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.98%	8.05%	32.95%	23.75%	10.73%	10.73%	4.98%	2.68%	1.15%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.99%	9.67%	27.55%	20.78%	15.46%	11.24%	6.45%	3.20%	2.15%	36,436

[ZB'Tejas 593]

On 11/20/2020 at 4:33 PM, South Austin said:

Shit, I'm going to call off my folks from coming down for Thanksgiving.  I'd planned on quarantining with my kids starting this evening to make the Thanksgiving gathering safer -- staying home except for neighborhood walks and grocery runs, no play dates for the kids, etc.  But my dad recently started chemotherapy, and unfortunately his next appointment is the day before Thanksgiving, and with his white blood cell count zapped by the treatments, it's just too big a risk.  I get the sense my folks were getting nervous at the recent numbers but wanted to tough it out for their son and grandkids, and they may be relieved that I'm calling it off.  Fucking sucks.

Was doing similar so we could head out to our ranch with my parents for Thanksgiving. Then my mom calls and tells me she has COVID so likely does my dad. I guess she was exposed from someone at her church and I'm pretty sure she wears a mask the whole time there so who knows. Thanksgiving by ourselves it seems.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

Texas is now averaging 10,000 new cases a day.

[dcar00 14324]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

ok first I would like to congratulate the 20-29 age group for being the 1st group in Travis County to break the 10,000 case mark!!

Here is yesterday's age breakout. Heavily skewed <40. As noted above 32 admits and 210 people in the hospital. We are churning people out of the hospital rapidly.

Stay frosty folks!

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/22  vs 11/21	0	13	21	86	62	28	28	13	7	3	261
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.98%	8.05%	32.95%	23.75%	10.73%	10.73%	4.98%	2.68%	1.15%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.99%	9.67%	27.55%	20.78%	15.46%	11.24%	6.45%	3.20%	2.15%	36,436

I keep wondering if they need to admit people to give them the therapeutics per some insurance thing.  Its hard to believe people are getting churned out that rapidly.

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Was doing similar so we could head out to our ranch with my parents for Thanksgiving. Then my mom calls and tells me she has COVID so likely does my dad. I guess she was exposed from someone at her church and I'm pretty sure she wears a mask the whole time there so who knows. Thanksgiving by ourselves it seems.

I think it’s pretty much settled at this point that if you are in a room with a contagious person, a mask will only give you a slight advantage compared to no mask.

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Just now, dcar00 said:

I keep wondering if they need to admit people to give them the therapeutics per some insurance thing.  Its hard to believe people are getting churned out that rapidly.

There is something happening that seems like potentially a process change as the numbers seem weird.

Two weeks ago Travis County had 129 people in the hospital. On 11/21 we had 205. In that two week span 19 people died. There were 438 admits over the past two weeks.

So 438 admits have netted an increase of 76 patients. 343 patients were admitted, then released (from a net perspective) - Taking out the 19 deaths and just looking at the net increase of 76.

You could also assume all 205 are from the 438 which would mean 214 people were admitted and released.

There are just too many variables that could be causing these moves though: improved treatment efficacy, change in admission protocol, people presenting with worse symptoms than prior months, people asking to be admitted more than past, import of people outside of Travis County etc etc

Who knows. It is just a odd set of data.

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I think it’s pretty much settled at this point that if you are in a room with a contagious person, a mask will only give you a slight advantage compared to no mask.

I'd wager that it depends on the type of mask. A KN95 mask (assuming it's not a complete shit fake one) should be significantly better than some dude that tosses on a bandana. 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

 

24 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I think it’s pretty much settled at this point that if you are in a room with a contagious person, a mask will only give you a slight advantage compared to no mask.

Well ain't that some shit, maybe the other person was not wearing on... what a beat down this year has been. Good thing for my parents is no symptoms thus far even though they are well into their 70s. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

I think it’s pretty much settled at this point that if you are in a room with a contagious person, a mask will only give you a slight advantage compared to no mask.

Source?

[dcar00 14324]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

There is something happening that seems like potentially a process change as the numbers seem weird.

Two weeks ago Travis County had 129 people in the hospital. On 11/21 we had 205. In that two week span 19 people died. There were 438 admits over the past two weeks.

So 438 admits have netted an increase of 76 patients. 343 patients were admitted, then released (from a net perspective) - Taking out the 19 deaths and just looking at the net increase of 76.

You could also assume all 205 are from the 438 which would mean 214 people were admitted and released.

There are just too many variables that could be causing these moves though: improved treatment efficacy, change in admission protocol, people presenting with worse symptoms than prior months, people asking to be admitted more than past, import of people outside of Travis County etc etc

Who knows. It is just a odd set of data.

 

late 70's relative I know was sick and the doc said we need to admit you to turn the test around faster.  do you want to be admitted?  he said yes.  was there one night and left after he received negative back(it was slight case of pneumonia in one lung)

[utee94 15842]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas is now averaging 10,000 new cases a day.

[Druggist 303]

My wife and kids are up at Old Settlers park to see our nieces run in the state cross country meet today.  It was 1A and 3A this morning and she said there are a ton of folks not wearing masks.  
Fucking people can’t put on a mask at a gathering of people from all over the state.  I can’t say I am surprised.  I know outdoors is less risky, but it shouldn’t be that hard to be considerate of others that are worried about this.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Druggist

[atomheartbevo 89775]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I keep wondering if they need to admit people to give them the therapeutics per some insurance thing.  Its hard to believe people are getting churned out that rapidly.

We had a cousin who recently tested positive, had some of the Ye Olde Pre-Existing Conditions, was not feeling too well a day or two after the positive test, was admitted, given the therapeutics, and whatever it was got him up and out of the hospital quickly, and he was feeling much better within a few days.    He was told without the pre-existing stuff, he would not have been admitted, even if feeling poorly, unless things were going haywire with him (oxygen levels or whatever).

I'm wondering if there's some kind of risk-assessment going on - if they even think the person is going to have problems, admit them, give the therapeutics, and then get them out.  The government maybe reimbursing them, so they are willing to be more aggressive.  

 

[Armybrat 40866]

6 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

I'd wager that it depends on the type of mask. A KN95 mask (assuming it's not a complete shit fake one) should be significantly better than some dude that tosses on a bandana. 

We wear 2ply tight weave masks with charcoal filters.... or so the label on the filters said so.

[El Diablo 4232]

9 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

I'd wager that it depends on the type of mask. A KN95 mask (assuming it's not a complete shit fake one) should be significantly better than some dude that tosses on a bandana. 

Bandana, sock, Kleenex, whatever. I don't think it matters much where you blow your load with the 'Rona. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

We wear 2ply tight weave masks with charcoal filters.... or so the label on the filters said so.

Oak or mesquite?  

[Armybrat 40866]

Probably bamboo if they’re made in China.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

Probably bamboo if they’re made in China.

Sad panda!  I’ve been using just plain surgical masks for the most part.  Had a big box of them from when my dad had pneumonia and MSRA before he died.  I just have made a point not to spend much time indoors with other people, at all.  

[Armybrat 40866]

Repeat post:

 

[Deej 76882]

[Armybrat 40866]

I haven’t lived in China since 1958.

[CHIEF 5094]

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Sad panda!  I’ve been using just plain surgical masks for the most part.  Had a big box of them from when my dad had pneumonia and MSRA before he died.  I just have made a point not to spend much time indoors with other people, at all.  

Bingo! That has been my family's MO since the pandemic started, keep moving. With a college age kid with a class load that MUST be done on campus, he is the one that will be the possible vector. He pretty much comes out of his room to eat, raid the fridge, normal college shit, but we do not stay next to him for extended periods. Family time is out on the back porch in the fresh open air. We went to an open air concert three months ago with 500 people packed on about an acre, no social distancing with about a 20 mph breeze. They had everyone's address to contact trace, and not one person came up sick.

CHIEF

[B00M 6436]

9 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Bingo! That has been my family's MO since the pandemic started, keep moving. With a college age kid with a class load that MUST be done on campus, he is the one that will be the possible vector. He pretty much comes out of his room to eat, raid the fridge, normal college shit, but we do not stay next to him for extended periods. Family time is out on the back porch in the fresh open air. We went to an open air concert three months ago with 500 people packed on about an acre, no social distancing with about a 20 mph breeze. They had everyone's address to contact trace, and not one person came up sick.

CHIEF

 

Sounds like you're doing a lot right but...

Do you recirculate air in the house?

Keep strategic windows open and/or buy the high end virus capturing filter?

https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/products/~/Filtrete-Allergen-Bacteria-Virus-True-HEPA-Room-Air-Purifier-Filter-FAPF-HM-B/?N=4315+3290256462+3294529207&rt=rud

[CHIEF 5094]

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

 

Sounds like you're doing a lot right but...

Do you recirculate air in the house?

Keep strategic windows open and/or buy the high end virus capturing filter?

https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/products/~/Filtrete-Allergen-Bacteria-Virus-True-HEPA-Room-Air-Purifier-Filter-FAPF-HM-B/?N=4315+3290256462+3294529207&rt=rud

Windows are open this time of year. Not sure about the filter, but CHIEF Jr.'s room is probably 60 feet from ours, and he is on a separate HVAC system.

CHIEF

Edited November 24, 2020 by CHIEF

[B00M 6436]

1 minute ago, CHIEF said:

Windows are open this time of year. Not sure about the filter, but CHIEF Jr.'s room is probably 40 feet from ours, and he is on a separate a/c system.

CHIEF

Fuck yeah CHIEF

[Armybrat 40866]

So, Chief Jr. can sneak female companionship in without disturbing mom & dad?

[CHIEF 5094]

4 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

So, Chief Jr. can sneak female companionship in without disturbing mom & dad?

Yes, it was an easy sell. He got busted getting a blowjob on the side of the road, it cost us some cash to make the situation go away. Mrs. CHIEF is all in on "nice girls" being able to come over for a bangin'. She is really into saving money like that.

CHIEF

[BrazilHorn 6628]

Big day for Travis County with 318 cases yesterday and 37 admits. 219 people in the hospital (up 9 from prior day)

Bigger share than normal for the 70 - 79 group with 17 cases. Based on mortality rate for this group I expect to see 2 deaths out of these folks.

20 - 29 still leading the way with ~32% of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/23  vs 11/22	0	7	26	103	58	49	34	21	17	3	318
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.20%	8.18%	32.39%	18.24%	15.41%	10.69%	6.60%	5.35%	0.94%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.98%	9.66%	27.59%	20.76%	15.46%	11.24%	6.45%	3.22%	2.14%	36,754

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

Thanksgiving is about to wipe the olds out, unfortunately. I can’t explain the psychology behind it but most of the older people I talk to in Travis/Wilco don’t think they will get it from their friends and family.  They might be inviting a couple of less random friends of the family, but it’s still going to be bad.

We are quarantining for a week (all I can do with work) and going to visit the in-laws just to stop them from having half of Houston over. Literally playing gatekeeper because my FIL would 100% die from this. They aren’t anti-maskers or anything but just can’t help themselves if a friend wants to come over.

I will be really interested in the hospital numbers and death totals around December 4th and beyond. Hopefully I’m wrong about all of this.

[hornian 5222]

11 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Thanksgiving is about to wipe the olds out, unfortunately. I can’t explain the psychology behind it but most of the older people I talk to in Travis/Wilco don’t think they will get it from their friends and family.  They might be inviting a couple of less random friends of the family, but it’s still going to be bad.

We are quarantining for a week (all I can do with work) and going to visit the in-laws just to stop them from having half of Houston over. Literally playing gatekeeper because my FIL would 100% die from this. They aren’t anti-maskers or anything but just can’t help themselves if a friend wants to come over.

I will be really interested in the hospital numbers and death totals around December 4th and beyond. Hopefully I’m wrong about all of this.

They don’t call it the “boomer remover” for nothing. 

[Anastasis 23481]

57 new admits. Happy Tday. 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

I mean, the traditional Texas hospitality that people have prided themselves on their whole lives isn't exactly easy to just switch off. Especially for those who are older and set in their ways. It sucks. Everything about this just sucks. But at least we have a legit excuse for not wanting to see our inlaws and drinking heavily.