COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[B00M 6278]

39 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

mask wearing is all anecdotal.  no one knows. show me how you know 90%+ people aren't wearing masks.   Europe is almost full compliance

Show me how you know Europe is almost full compliance. They're humans too and just like us, they hate wearing masks. 

 

[B00M 6278]

3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Yeah this just isn’t true, and no one has said they are a magic bullet, plus things like gaiters don’t even work.  But keep fighting against straw men because the best hope is wait for the vaccine and until then just say fuck it.  But god forbid teachers or custodians don’t want to get infected.

Neck gaiters, while the most comfortable and convenient of all masks, have been proven detrimental to those around the gaiter-wearer because they simply reduce the exhaled droplet size and allow more of it to stay in the air longer. 

[kevwun 15595]

Yes, they are like spraying a water hose through a screen door. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

It always cracks me up when people talk about keeping schools open because “kids don’t get it”. That’s nice and all but we also have teachers, administrators, teachers assistants, cafeteria workers, office staff, custodians, and maintenance workers that can get it. A few of them getting covid interrupts how the school operates and discourages the remaining employees for coming to work because it’s perceived as unsafe.

In general, I have felt safe at work this year with the measures in place. I would not feel safe the week after the break with the number of people traveling. Wait for the numbers to settle and I’ll gladly go back.

[B00M 6278]

47 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

It always cracks me up when people talk about keeping schools open because “kids don’t get it”. That’s nice and all but we also have teachers, administrators, teachers assistants, cafeteria workers, office staff, custodians, and maintenance workers that can get it. A few of them getting covid interrupts how the school operates and discourages the remaining employees for coming to work because it’s perceived as unsafe.

In general, I have felt safe at work this year with the measures in place. I would not feel safe the week after the break with the number of people traveling. Wait for the numbers to settle and I’ll gladly go back.

So you're afraid of the rest of the staff? I mean, that's reasonable.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

29 minutes ago, B00M said:

So you're afraid of the rest of the staff? I mean, that's reasonable.

I’m mostly afraid of what we have built as far as a safe work environment with 0 positive cases quickly devolving into a shit show with multiple staff members out, nobody to teach/watch the kids in person, and other staff members afraid to come to work. One week of virtual seems worth it to see how the numbers play out so we can get back to it knowing we are (somewhat) safe.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Europe had just as much anti-mask stupidity as the US

Edited November 27, 2020 by Neonmoon

[dcar00 14023]

3 hours ago, B00M said:

Show me how you know Europe is almost full compliance. They're humans too and just like us, they hate wearing masks. 

 

exactly.  no one knows shit about how much mask compliance there is anywhere.  

[utee94 15742]

France's numbers  are declining rapidly after instituting more strict lockdowns but keeping in-person school open.

I'm not making a political statement here-- I'm pointing to the data.  

If this is happening there, why?  Are we seeing similar trends in schools here? 

Edited November 27, 2020 by utee94

[B00M 6278]

48 minutes ago, utee94 said:

France's numbers  are declining rapidly after instituting more strict lockdowns but keeping in-person school open.

I'm not making a political statement here-- I'm pointing to the data.  

If this is happening there, why?  Are we seeing similar trends in schools here? 

YES

Schools are consistently orders of magnitude safer than the surrounding communities

Edited November 27, 2020 by B00M

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

12 hours ago, utee94 said:

France's numbers  are declining rapidly after instituting more strict lockdowns but keeping in-person school open.

I'm not making a political statement here-- I'm pointing to the data.  

If this is happening there, why?  Are we seeing similar trends in schools here? 

Depends on the age of the kids because the transmission rates increase with age, but the hypothesis is that 

1) teachers are doing a good job of getting kids to wear masks and enforcing social distancing (I’ve seen this first hand- they are miles ahead of where they were this spring)

2) even when infected asymptomatic kids shed less virus due to immune response  and lower ACE2 expression

3) kids have smaller lungs etc and therefore shed less virus

That being said- you can’t compare France or any other developed nation to us. The single greatest inhibitor of spread is social cohesion because it determines our ability to comply with a strategy as a group, and we do not have that right now. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Depends on the age of the kids because the transmission rates increase with age, but the hypothesis is that 

1) teachers are doing a good job of getting kids to wear masks and enforcing social distancing (I’ve seen this first hand- they are miles ahead of where they were this spring)

2) even when infected asymptomatic kids shed less virus due to immune response  and lower ACE2 expression

3) kids have smaller lungs etc and therefore shed less virus

That being said- you can’t compare France or any other developed nation to us. The single greatest inhibitor of spread is social cohesion because it determines our ability to comply with a strategy as a group, and we do not have that right now. 

Seems like the key is also to keep each teacher away from other teachers (adult to adult transmission). In schools (here) where the staff respects that it is going better than elementary campuses where some of the staff are ignoring mitigation measures when away from work.

[Armybrat 40678]

On 11/25/2020 at 8:11 PM, Lobo said:

Also, yeah...we gotta stop considering the deaths over 60 to be "old people on their way out anyway."  To me, that's like 75 or 80.  

Hey! 👴

[Armybrat 40678]

18 hours ago, dcar00 said:

spending hours inside a small space with masks or no masks with someone who has covid means you are likely to get it.  I will say a strange situation happened in my circle.  niece got it at school.  she quarantined with her roommate.  roomate never got symptoms at all and tested after 7 days and was negative.  really weird.  you would think she would have at least tested positive.

Well, at least that indicates your niece is not a lesbian.

[Wanker Bob 379]

19 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. But they just closed schools in New York city as well. Europe is locking down. I was literally responding to the idea of “we can’t have nice things because people won’t wear masks”. Even the places where everyone is wearing masks don’t  have nice things throughout this pandemic. 

This guy believes republican voted states are all 100 percent republican, democrat states are all 100 percent democrat, and the entirety of europe is 100 percent Greta Thurnburg's. 

 

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Hey! 👴

He said 75-80. Not 175-180. Time for new lenses prescription

[Wanker Bob 379]

19 hours ago, dcar00 said:

mask wearing is all anecdotal.  no one knows. show me how you know 90%+ people aren't wearing masks.   Europe is almost full compliance, they are the smart people remember.

what slows it is not moving around, distancing, and not getting into large crowds(indoors or out)

Europe isn't 100 percent compliance or even close. There are plenty of giblet heads there thinking it's not a big deal just as the giblet heads here do.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Data not coming today from Travis County.

[StruggleBus 3922]

23 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

And by the way, ironically, all the AP classes they are in have the lowest amount of in person students.  Coincidence?  Probably not.

What an embarrassing post

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 hour ago, Wanker Bob said:

This guy believes republican voted states are all 100 percent republican, democrat states are all 100 percent democrat, and the entirety of europe is 100 percent Greta Thurnburg's. 

 

Not hardly. What I believe is what I saw with my own eyes that on the eastern seaboard mask usage was basically 100% this summer. That’s not ideological that’s pretty much just fact. 

[B00M 6278]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not hardly. What I believe is what I saw with my own eyes that on the eastern seaboard mask usage was basically 100% this summer. That’s not ideological that’s pretty much just fact. 

INDISPUTABLE FACTS /derka

[bschoolprof 6232]

I understand the human need to blame others, particularly others we dislike or disagree with, for intractable problems. But this notion that "if these other dumbshits that are not me would just wear masks, we wouldn't have this latest spike" is silly, unproductive, and not backed by much in the way of convincing evidence.  This virus is spiking pretty much everywhere in the northern hemisphere (more so in places that hadn't been hit hard yet), just as respiratory viruses have done in the winter months forever.  Masks might help mitigate it some, but they are no panacea, as some seem to be implying.  Even South Korea - held up in this thread as a paragon for really controlling this virus - has seen a massive uptick in cases recently.  They are likely the most masked up country on the planet.  

[B00M 6278]

11 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Masks might help mitigate it some, but they are no panacea, as some seem to be implying.  

Who is implying panacea? They're a mitigation measure and one of the only tools we have... 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

Who is implying panacea? They're a mitigation measure and one of the only tools we have... 

Exactly.  Hope for the vaccine which looks promising, but in the meantime we have nothing except social distancing and masks.  That’s it.  It’s telling that requesting people wear masks provokes an instinctive “fuck you you’re not the boss of me” reaction.  
 

It’s depressing as fuck because I want back to normal so badly.

[bschoolprof 6232]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

Who is implying panacea? They're a mitigation measure and one of the only tools we have... 

The multiple posts on this thread stating that if everyone had just worn their masks, we wouldn’t have this significant spike we are seeing. 

[BradInATX 9208]

I understand the human need to blame others, particularly others we dislike or disagree with, for intractable problems. But this notion that "if these other dumbshits that are not me would just wear masks, we wouldn't have this latest spike" is silly, unproductive, and not backed by much in the way of convincing evidence.  This virus is spiking pretty much everywhere in the northern hemisphere (more so in places that hadn't been hit hard yet), just as respiratory viruses have done in the winter months forever.  Masks might help mitigate it some, but they are no panacea, as some seem to be implying.  Even South Korea - held up in this thread as a paragon for really controlling this virus - has seen a massive uptick in cases recently.  They are likely the most masked up country on the planet.  

South Korea's "spike" is 1 in 87,000 people getting covid daily. America is at 1 in 2,000. Not even comparable. Don't contribute to the anti-mask idiocy. Masks work. We now have small library's worth of studies that show it. Anti-science does not belong on a forum sporting Burnt Orange.

[Telegraph_it 3353]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

South Korea's "spike" is 1 in 87,000 people getting covid daily. America is at 1 in 2,000. Not even comparable. Don't contribute to the anti-mask idiocy. Masks work. We now have small library's worth of studies that show it. Anti-science does not belong on a forum sporting Burnt Orange.

I hope you were wearing a mask while typing this. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Data not coming today from Travis County.

Saw something like over 100,000 new cases in the US yesterday, and that was without 20 states who had suspended reporting over the holidays.

[Armybrat 40678]

This football season is going to get me before any godamn Chicom virus..

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

I understand the human need to blame others, particularly others we dislike or disagree with, for intractable problems. But this notion that "if these other dumbshits that are not me would just wear masks, we wouldn't have this latest spike" is silly, unproductive, and not backed by much in the way of convincing evidence.  

I have a cousin in an adjacent state, that has looser mask standards, and as a result their cases are increasing fairly rapidly (and we have seen cases with other family members (not her family)).  She is living in a house with her grandma, my 89 year-old great-aunt.  Said cousin took a "vacay" with her girlfriends to Branson last week (one of them is turning 40).  Did she bother quarantining or anything when she got back, so she didn't put her grandma at risk?  Nope.

We just found out this morning on Facebook that she tested positive.    Her friends and mom are like "oh my gosh, how could this happen?"

Now, we don't know exactly where she got it, but if we jump back a week to her Branson trip, there's a shit-ton of photos of her and her friends not wearing masks, being crammed together in a van for the trip, they shared a couple of connecting hotel rooms, even comments from her and her friends bitching about places requiring them to put on masks (I don't know if it was an establishment rule or a City of Branson rule), and so on.  Basically a bunch of high school friends getting together for somebody's 40th, and acting like high school kids. 

I feel like Brian from Family Guy.  I want to jump into the comments and say "Really?  Really?  We're all just going to ignore the fact that less than a week ago, there are a few dozen photos on Facebook of her and her friends crammed into a van, crammed into two hotel rooms, showing them out out running around, and wearing masks and little as possible, and even bitching about needing a mask to go in certain places, with a photo of the 6 of them without masks surrounding a sign at some venue asking that patrons wear a mask, and we're just all going to collectively pretend that none of that happened?  We're going to pretend that she hasn't bitched multiple times about masks and social distancing?"

When you go out of your way to be around other people without a mask, when you bitch about having to put on a mask, when you deliberately flout physical distancing and a simple piece of cloth, and then you get the 'vid,  yeah, I am going to blame her, and hope my great-aunt doesn't get it.

Edited November 27, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Armybrat 40678]

Well, post it there.
she doesn’t care about your aunt,so why should you care about her selfish feelings?

[atomheartbevo 89362]

5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Data not coming today from Travis County.

A little data is out there about the state in general

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.15563696.705796664.1606517348-1823485620.1606517348

Quote

Daily case and deaths numbers are lower than in the past few days because some local health departments won’t be reporting data over the holidays, according to the Department of State Health Services. The seven-day average of new cases continues to surpass 10,000, having tripled since the beginning of October. Testing is also at record levels. Meanwhile, the number of Texans hospitalized with COVID-19 has more than doubled in the same timespan. The situation is particularly dire in El Paso, and experts worry the holidays could exacerbate an already dangerous situation.

 

[CooterBrown 17874]

If we’d just lock down for 2 weeks with a shoot on sight order for the PD to handle non-compliance (assuming they can aim with all the blood flowing to their 3 inch boners), we’d be fucking done with this shit.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

ok here is the demographic data for past two days in Travis County combined (they just updated). pretty normal distribution just a lot of cases. There were 14 admits on Thanksgiving and 37 today. 218 people hospitalized (down from 226 Wednesday). Hope all had a good Thanksgiving and that Tom Herman is fired soon.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/27  vs 11/25	1	16	43	125	96	55	44	20	14	14	428
% of Daily Change	0.23%	3.74%	10.05%	29.21%	22.43%	12.85%	10.28%	4.67%	3.27%	3.27%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.99%	9.64%	27.61%	20.79%	15.41%	11.24%	6.46%	3.21%	2.16%	37,666

[Brisketexan 104462]

Tom Herman IS the virus...

[atomheartbevo 89362]

49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tom Herman IS the virus...

And it's coming from inside the program.

[washparkhorn 9931]

6 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

I understand the human need to blame others, particularly others we dislike or disagree with, for intractable problems. But this notion that "if these other dumbshits that are not me would just wear masks, we wouldn't have this latest spike" is silly, unproductive, and not backed by much in the way of convincing evidence.  This virus is spiking pretty much everywhere in the northern hemisphere (more so in places that hadn't been hit hard yet), just as respiratory viruses have done in the winter months forever.  Masks might help mitigate it some, but they are no panacea, as some seem to be implying. 

Even South Korea - held up in this thread as a paragon for really controlling this virus - has seen a massive uptick in cases recently.  They are likely the most masked up country on the planet.  

Team New Zealand here - https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases

Of course it is an Island Nation. They are catching people with the virus at the borders. 3 cases in the entire nation (66 at locked border zone). We are a long way off from that luxury right now.

Your statement regarding the effectiveness of masks slowing the spread is incorrect. Masks slow the spread from carriers; masks provide some protection against the virus.  I would suggest consideration of "lack of proper mask usage" as a data point to consider before committing to your proposition.

People would wear mask properly here, but so many hear bullshit like "masks don't work" and so they think - why bother.  No offense. We, as a nation, need this pandemic to end. That happens more quickly when humans are considerate enough to wear masks - for the sake of their health and the health of others.   

Peace. Love. Understanding.

Spoiler

 

 

Edited November 28, 2020 by washparkhorn

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Well this sucks, but a helluva woman.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nurse-who-came-out-of-retirement-to-train-others-dies-from-covid-19/?utm_campaign=alert_bar&utm_source=side_bullets

Quote

Iris Meda had been a nurse for 35 years, but she came out of retirement when the pandemic struck. The 70-year-old taught nursing skills at Collin College just outside of Dallas, and she and her family believe it was the outreach that exposed her to the coronavirus.

Quote

“She retired in January,” said Selene. “She was just tired. She said she was tired of the rigor of it all. She had lots of plans! We had lots of plans together.”

But as January turned into March, and spring turned into a global pandemic, Iris knew the world, and future frontline workers, were in need of her knowledge. So she returned to the workforce and taught nursing students at Collin College in McKinney, Texas.

Quote

“She knows exactly when she was exposed,” said Selene. “She actually kept a journal that has the exposure date, the reporting date, and her symptom dates.”

One of her students tested positive for COVID-19, and eventually so did Iris. Her deteriorating health quickly landing her in the hospital.

Quote

She was intubated on October 28th. and she passed away on November 14th.”

GoFundMe for her funeral and a nursing scholarship in her name.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/funeral-and-medical-expenses-for-iris-meda

 

[jimmyjazz 45512]

8 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

The multiple posts on this thread stating that if everyone had just worn their masks, we wouldn’t have this significant spike we are seeing. 

That's because we wouldn't.  I know math is hard, but for fuck's sake, look at the actual data.

[bschoolprof 6232]

16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's because we wouldn't.  I know math is hard, but for fuck's sake, look at the actual data.

I have, and that's what I based my claim on.  The virus is spiking everywhere, more so in places that were never hit hard in the first two waves, but it's spiking up significantly even in places with the strictest mask mandates and the highest rates of mask wearing like CA, NM, MA, etc etc.  Did these places suddenly go anti-mask in the last month?  Even San Francisco, which has arguably the strictest mask rules in the country and likely the most compliance (see latest COVIDcast stats on mask wearing by county), has seen a significant jump. Masks are a mitigation strategy, not a panacea.  

[jimmyjazz 45512]

3 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I have, and that's what I based my claim on.  The virus is spiking everywhere, more so in places that were never hit hard in the first two waves, but it's spiking up significantly even in places with the strictest mask mandates and the highest rates of mask wearing like CA, NM, MA, etc etc.  Did these places suddenly go anti-mask in the last month?  Even San Francisco, which has arguably the strictest mask rules in the country and likely the most compliance (see latest COVIDcast stats on mask wearing by county), has seen a significant jump. Masks are a mitigation strategy, not a panacea.  

Gosh, maybe that's because mask usage isn't universal?  It's really not that hard to imagine why the virus might spike as temperatures cool and people spend more time indoors, not to mention when they are "guided" to ignore medical advice.  "Spiking" from a mortality rate of 0.01% to 0.02% is different than spiking from a mortality rate of 0.2% to 0.5%.  (Numbers wholly made up, don't get your britches wrapped around your "axle".)

Are you seriously a prof?

[bschoolprof 6232]

No, I play one on the Internet. No need to be an asshole. 
 

Can you point me, with actual data you say I should look at, to places in the US (or other non island, northern hemisphere free societies) where strict mask wearing has prevented this latest spike?  Or is this just a hypothetical?  

[staboner 4955]

you motherfuckers are on repeat up in here is

[bschoolprof 6232]

I blame Tom Herman.  Fuck that guy.  

[jimmyjazz 45512]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

No, I play one on the Internet. No need to be an asshole. 
 

Can you point me, with actual data you say I should look at, to places in the US (or other non island, northern hemisphere free societies) where strict mask wearing has prevented this latest spike?  Or is this just a hypothetical?  

You're using the wrong language.  Non-universal mask usage most certainly will not "prevent a spike".  It will reduce the starting point (and hence the peak) of said spike, in terms of raw numbers (infections per capita).

I don't know why this is so difficult.  Do you disagree with what I am saying?

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

  Non-universal mask usage most certainly will not "prevent a spike".  It will reduce the starting point (and hence the peak) of said spike, in terms of raw numbers (infections per capita).

This. For most of us, data aside, we have only our own observations and anecdotal information regarding mask usage and even then it's less than perfect. But it becomes pretty clear that *our* idea of a protective bubble varies across a wide range.

This link  https://rt.live/     shows the *R naught values for states and while imperfect, is useful just to see how each infected person infects others in a virus that currently has no readily available vaccine.

*R naught value is a range.

 

Edit-Apologies if the link is bad data, it's originally from a news item in Montana, where the virus was spreading then trending downward. Lot of variables when looking at transmission and mitigation.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins

[BradInATX 9208]

No, I play one on the Internet. No need to be an asshole. 
 
Can you point me, with actual data you say I should look at, to places in the US (or other non island, northern hemisphere free societies) where strict mask wearing has prevented this latest spike?  Or is this just a hypothetical?  

When you are up in here posting stupid ass conspiracy theories on par with flat earth and anti vax bullshit, you deserve every bit of assholery you get. You're a stupid anti mask anti-science hillbilly idiot, and you should shut the fuck up.

[hornian 5201]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

When you are up in here posting stupid ass conspiracy theories on par with flat earth and anti vax bullshit, you deserve every bit of assholery you get. You're a stupid anti mask anti-science hillbilly idiot, and you should shut the fuck up.
 

[Anastasis 23375]

What the fuck is going on in here?

[jimmyjazz 45512]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What the fuck is going on in here?

I don't know, I've been standing out in the rain for the last hour and I'm waterlogged.  Apparently I'm an asshole, which around here is a badge of honor.