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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

That number might be high for Austin, but honestly, it’s still really low compared to a number of other metro areas in Texas.

Austin has consistently outperformed the other majors in Texas throughout this whole thing. There have been some poor decisions made in some areas, but in general the city and its people have done a good job. The only thing I really miss about Austin after moving to Comal County is the people grasping the concept of the greater good a lot more than out here. And ABGB.

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Austin has consistently outperformed the other majors in Texas throughout this whole thing. There have been some poor decisions made in some areas, but in general the city and its people have done a good job. The only thing I really miss about Austin after moving to Comal County is the people grasping the concept of the greater good a lot more than out here. And ABGB.

Yep Austin is a three legged dog in a room full of two legged ones. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

I am hoping this data point doesn't turn into a trend of "Post Thanksgiving >60 cases spiking" as grandparents start making a run after families got together but of the 380 cases yesterday the 60 to 69 & 70 to 79 age groups well outperformed their normal share of cases. This does not bode well for cases especially with such a large number of cases. You have to go all the way back to July 21st to see a day where we had >70 cases in the 60+ age groups and in all the time I have been tracking the day over day age group changes there has never been a day (this goes back to mid July when I started the daily age based compares) that we have had a day with 47 cases occur in the 60 to 69 group. Hopefully this is a one day blip.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/1 vs 11/30 1 12 28 88 78 51 52 47 16 7 380
% of Daily Change 0.26% 3.16% 7.37% 23.16% 20.53% 13.42% 13.68% 12.37% 4.21% 1.84%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 3.00% 9.60% 27.59% 20.84% 15.32% 11.29% 6.51% 3.22% 2.14%   38,757
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

I am hoping this data point doesn't turn into a trend of "Post Thanksgiving >60 cases spiking" as grandparents start making a run after families got together but of the 380 cases yesterday the 60 to 69 & 70 to 79 age groups well outperformed their normal share of cases. This does not bode well for cases especially with such a large number of cases. You have to go all the way back to July 21st to see a day where we had >70 cases in the 60+ age groups and in all the time I have been tracking the day over day age group changes there has never been a day (this goes back to mid July when I started the daily age based compares) that we have had a day with 47 cases occur in the 60 to 69 group. Hopefully this is a one day blip.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/1 vs 11/30 1 12 28 88 78 51 52 47 16 7 380
% of Daily Change 0.26% 3.16% 7.37% 23.16% 20.53% 13.42% 13.68% 12.37% 4.21% 1.84%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 3.00% 9.60% 27.59% 20.84% 15.32% 11.29% 6.51% 3.22% 2.14%   38,757

This is no bueno. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52321

Posted
Posted

Choices were made by people. The information is out there and easily accessible. If people choose to ignore it, disbelieve it, or decide they are being safe enough, they get to live (or die) with any consequences. “We didn’t know” has no merit. 
now, are or will the amount of covid cases using resources now or in the future impact care for ALL patients?  Doesn’t seem right for someone who falls off their roof putting up Christmas lights to not have access to instrumentation or an experienced medical professional because they are all being occupied by a ward of covid cases from people who couldn’t be bothered wearing a mask at the grocery store or eating thanksgiving dinner alone one year. 

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Js1

Js1 85055

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Choices were made by people. The information is out there and easily accessible. If people choose to ignore it, disbelieve it, or decide they are being safe enough, they get to live (or die) with any consequences. “We didn’t know” has no merit. 
now, are or will the amount of covid cases using resources now or in the future impact care for ALL patients?  Doesn’t seem right for someone who falls off their roof putting up Christmas lights to not have access to instrumentation or an experienced medical professional because they are all being occupied by a ward of covid cases from people who couldn’t be bothered wearing a mask at the grocery store or eating thanksgiving dinner alone one year. 

Randy Marsh Running GIF by South Park - Find & Share on GIPHY

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Apparently, a shitload of Texans think it's better to vacation in the less crowded parts of West Texas, not realizing they are fucking over those small communities in some cases.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/12/02/coronavirus-west-texas-big-bend-marfa/

 

Not sure what I think of that article. One, it's always an easy excuse to blame outsiders for bringing in diseases. It's a fair assumption that some local, rural Texans are also not practicing safe behavior. Two, no one is forcing them to take in more tourists. One shop owner in the article worries about non-masked customers entering her store. That can be solved by telling them to GTFO. Or if a restaurant is crowded, remove some of the tables.  The same shop owner is upset that the govt isn't doing more to protect them. That doesn't stop you from protecting yourself and your employees.

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6519

Posted
Posted
Apparently, a shitload of Texans think it's better to vacation in the less crowded parts of West Texas, not realizing they are fucking over those small communities in some cases.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/12/02/coronavirus-west-texas-big-bend-marfa/
 
Spent the week camping near BBNP, but I didn't go into any indoor place. Just Gasoline. Couldn't have been more cautious. The store in Terlingua was requiring mask and only allowing 6 at a time.
I could see Marfa being a shit show.
Fredericksburg looked like a normal crazy holiday weekend save for some masks. I expect it to get bad there.

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utee94

utee94 15742

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Spent the week camping near BBNP, but I didn't go into any indoor place. Just Gasoline. Couldn't have been more cautious. The store in Terlingua was requiring mask and only allowing 6 at a time.
I could see Marfa being a shit show.
Fredericksburg looked like a normal crazy holiday weekend save for some masks. I expect it to get bad there.
 

It has looked the same since June.  If it hasn't gotten bad there already, then it's not gonna.

Edited by utee94
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25423

Posted
Posted

OK, so now I am pissed more than I was when I read the Adler bullshit. Stepmom has stage 4 and dad is 80. They were promised by her family they had not been near anyone and came by for a quick visit. Stayed in the house for about 5 hours watching. Both tested positive today and when confronted by Dad (the Colonel), they said well we were at a family event but did not think any of them had it. Fucking idiots, and now we gotta lock down a very ill cancer patient and hope for the best. 

People are fucking idiots. 

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

OK, so now I am pissed more than I was when I read the Adler bullshit. Stepmom has stage 4 and dad is 80. They were promised by her family they had not been near anyone and came by for a quick visit. Stayed in the house for about 5 hours watching. Both tested positive today and when confronted by Dad (the Colonel), they said well we were at a family event but did not think any of them had it. Fucking idiots, and now we gotta lock down a very ill cancer patient and hope for the best. 

People are fucking idiots. 

 

Good evidence that you really can't trust some people with this.  Hope it turns out well for your family.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

Good news is that the huge spike in >60 year old cases didn't turn into a trendline and continue today. Actually a fairly normal distribution across the age groups with the exception of the <1 group (but the numbers are so small there that adding any number of cases >1 looks magnified). 29 admits yesterday. Good news is Adler is safe, apparently you can't catch Covid in a private plane, so we have that going for us.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/2 vs 12/1 3 9 23 71 61 48 34 15 11 5 280
% of Daily Change 1.07% 3.21% 8.21% 25.36% 21.79% 17.14% 12.14% 5.36% 3.93% 1.79%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 3.00% 9.59% 27.57% 20.85% 15.34% 11.29% 6.50% 3.22% 2.13%   39,037

.

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Good evidence that you really can't trust some people with this.  Hope it turns out well for your family.

It fucking sucks.  We are very transparent about our activities with the family we interact with and expect the same from them. Sucks when people break that trust and an outcome like that is the result.  Hope they pull through.  

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Skipper

Skipper 6088

Posted
Posted

North Texas is almost certain to hit 7 straight days of > 15% hospitalization due to COVID which is going to trigger some rollbacks (bar closings (they never opened in Dallas) and reduced restaurant capacity.  It sucks for the small businesses but no restaurant should be jam packed at this point.  People really need to just deal with it for a couple of months and stay in.  One of our favorite things each December is for grandparents take the kids and do a "blow out" dinner.  This year we're going to pick a Saturday, put the kids down early and just pick up a shit load of food at Al Beirnat's or something.   It is what it is.  I'm targeting March 1 as when we start to really see the finish line based on the combo of more "outside weather" + hopefully being well into phase 2 of vaccination + a big chunk of population with some natural immunity, but this winter is clearly just going to suck.

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zman13

zman13 178

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, exactly. And to be clear, I am pissed at all of them. The family for lying and my family for believing and dropping their guard. 

I realized back in March and April that everyone in my family has a different interpretation of "quarantine". For some, it meant stay at home unless you had to go to Costco or the dry cleaners. For others, it meant stay at home except for visiting friends.

It sucks having to interrogate family to get to the real truth.

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, zman13 said:

I realized back in March and April that everyone in my family has a different interpretation of "quarantine". For some, it meant stay at home unless you had to go to Costco or the dry cleaners. For others, it meant stay at home except for visiting friends.

It sucks having to interrogate family to get to the real truth.

Haha. This is so true. Love when people talk about hating quarantine. I'm like, "hey motherfucker you ate at red lobster last night"

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Blotto

Blotto 23418

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Haha. This is so true. Love when people talk about hating quarantine. I'm like, "hey motherfucker you ate at red lobster last night"

I wouldn't trust people who eat at red lobster to wipe their ass properly, so I damn sure wouldnt trust them to manage their quarantine activities sensibly. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, zman13 said:

I realized back in March and April that everyone in my family has a different interpretation of "quarantine". For some, it meant stay at home unless you had to go to Costco or the dry cleaners. For others, it meant stay at home except for visiting friends.

It sucks having to interrogate family to get to the real truth.

6 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Haha. This is so true. Love when people talk about hating quarantine. I'm like, "hey motherfucker you ate at red lobster last night"

"OMG WE ARE IN A FUCKING LOCKDOWN, HELP HELP WE ARE BEING OPPRESSED."

*Continues to get Amazon deliveries the next day, can get in car and go to HEB or Walmart or whatever at any time."

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Skipper said:

North Texas is almost certain to hit 7 straight days of > 15% hospitalization due to COVID which is going to trigger some rollbacks (bar closings (they never opened in Dallas) and reduced restaurant capacity.  It sucks for the small businesses but no restaurant should be jam packed at this point.  People really need to just deal with it for a couple of months and stay in.  One of our favorite things each December is for grandparents take the kids and do a "blow out" dinner.  This year we're going to pick a Saturday, put the kids down early and just pick up a shit load of food at Al Beirnat's or something.   It is what it is.  I'm targeting March 1 as when we start to really see the finish line based on the combo of more "outside weather" + hopefully being well into phase 2 of vaccination + a big chunk of population with some natural immunity, but this winter is clearly just going to suck.

Man I miss Al Beirnat's.  

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14167

Posted
Posted

Eldest son originally was to be married this weekend in Austin.

Then COVID hit and they elected to postpone until next year.

About 2 months ago they reconsidered and chose to do an extremely limited service, immediate family only ( less than 10 people).

In light of Brewster County spike they made the sad but correct decision to cancel altogether.

Sigh.

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B00M

B00M 6278

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Eldest son originally was to be married this weekend in Austin.

Then COVID hit and they elected to postpone until next year.

About 2 months ago they reconsidered and chose to do an extremely limited service, immediate family only ( less than 10 people).

In light of Brewster County spike they made the sad but correct decision to cancel altogether.

Sigh.

Adler would probably suggest they exchange vows over email

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted

Early voting volunteer caught it, died.  Hadn't really been out much since March, but wanted to work the election.   Pretty sure she knew who she caught it from, since the guy tested positive, and she shared a seat/area with him, and he was symptomatic.  

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/travis-county-poll-worker-dies-from-covid-19-believes-she-got-it-while-working-early-voting/

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

34 admits yesterday and 230 cases. Cases skewing slightly younger, otherwise no major aberrations vs normal compare. (exception is in the 1 to 9 group which is ~2.5X their normal share)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/3 vs 12/2 1 20 19 69 53 24 23 14 4 3 230
% of Daily Change 0.43% 8.70% 8.26% 30.00% 23.04% 10.43% 10.00% 6.09% 1.74% 1.30%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 3.03% 9.58% 27.59% 20.86% 15.31% 11.29% 6.50% 3.21% 2.13%   39,267
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