COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[drt 638]

Our daycare provider tested positive. So the pediatrician lined up a Covid test on Tuesday for our 1.5 year old. Should be a fun few days until then. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

4 minutes ago, drt said:

Our daycare provider tested positive. So the pediatrician lined up a Covid test on Tuesday for our 1.5 year old. Should be a fun few days until then. 

Hope your kid isn't positive. Both of our kid's (3 and 5 years old) teachers at preschool have tested positive in the last few months. Neither teacher passed it to any of the kids in their class. 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

299 cases in Travis County yesterday with 31 new admits. Big day in the <1 category with 5 cases. While small numbers still biggest single day in that group since early September (to be fair this could always be a "fast finger" data entry error by the Travis Co folks)

Cases overall skewing younger as has been recent trend. (barring that one weird blip earlier this week)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/4 vs 12/3	5	11	20	93	68	41	36	13	6	6	299
% of Daily Change	1.67%	3.68%	6.69%	31.10%	22.74%	13.71%	12.04%	4.35%	2.01%	2.01%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	3.04%	9.56%	27.61%	20.88%	15.30%	11.29%	6.48%	3.20%	2.13%	39,566

[BrazilHorn 6586]

359 cases and 31 admits. What is interesting is the numbers hospitalized only increased by 3 to 216. 

Mortality date is updated:

11 deaths w/e 12/5 (50 to 59 (4), 60 to 69 (3), 70 to 79 (2), 80+ (2))

Crazy two days in a row in the <1 category. 12 cases in that group the last two days. That is normally a couple of weeks worth of increase in this group. Cases skewing younger overall as has been typical trend.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/5 vs 12/4	7	13	42	97	76	35	42	25	13	9	359
% of Daily Change	1.95%	3.62%	11.70%	27.02%	21.17%	9.75%	11.70%	6.96%	3.62%	2.51%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.04%	9.58%	27.61%	20.88%	15.25%	11.30%	6.49%	3.21%	2.13%	39,925

 

[Armybrat 40832]

On 12/4/2020 at 10:57 AM, dirtonia said:

Fuck y’all fancy bois too good for Red Lobster.

Joe’s Crab Shack then?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Joe’s Crab Shack then?

Fish Daddy’s.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

On 12/3/2020 at 7:04 PM, BradInATX said:

Pretty nasty jump in the 7 day moving average for Austin hospitalizations today. Hopefully it's a data dump and not a ramp

Do hospitalizations have data dumps?  I was under the impression they were largely real time.  

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Welp Texas appears to be doomed to wander the football desert for next several years as Herman is seemingly fumblefucking his way to being the HC next year.

Also Travis County had 284 cases today and 32 admits. 227 people in the hospital. Travis County also just crossed the 40k cases mark today.

Cases skew heavily younger today so that bodes well for future deaths.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/6 vs 12/5	-1	16	35	96	53	39	17	15	9	5	284
% of Daily Change	-0.35%	5.63%	12.32%	33.80%	18.66%	13.73%	5.99%	5.28%	3.17%	1.76%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	3.06%	9.60%	27.65%	20.86%	15.24%	11.26%	6.48%	3.21%	2.13%	40,209

 

[atomheartbevo 89655]

5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Welp Texas appears to be doomed to wander the football desert for next several years as Herman is seemingly fumblefucking his way to being the HC next year.

Since some of them caught the covid, can we blame aggy or OU?

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Since some of them caught the covid, can we blame aggy or OU?

 

Always

[BradInATX 9208]

19 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Do hospitalizations have data dumps?  I was under the impression they were largely real time.  

I'm not sure how it worked over Thanksgiving. I know they didn't update the Austin dashboard for a couple of days, but I do think they go back and assign cases to they day they were admitted as they should have that data. 

 

Not seeing a huge spike in Austin, sort of just hovering around the bottom of stage 4 for hospitalizations, which I suppose is better than having upward movement from all of the family get togethers and all that. Seems like we're getting pretty close to the end of the window where you'd expect to see a jump in hospital admits.

Edited December 7, 2020 by BradInATX

[Brisketexan 105097]

27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm not sure how it worked over Thanksgiving. I know they didn't update the Austin dashboard for a couple of days, but I do think they go back and assign cases to they day they were admitted as they should have that data. 

 

Not seeing a huge spike in Austin, sort of just hovering around the bottom of stage 4 for hospitalizations, which I suppose is better than having upward movement from all of the family get togethers and all that. Seems like we're getting pretty close to the end of the window where you'd expect to see a jump in hospital admits.

Yeah, I kinda figured that we need to hold our breath for just a few more days, and we'll know if T-giving gave us a spike or not.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Welp, cases for Travis County today were at 272, with a whopping 43 admits. 246 people are hospitalized as of today a jump of 19 from yesterday.

Cases still skewing younger which is a favorable sign in terms of deaths. We keep teetering on edge of a breakout although so far it hasn't fully manifested. (I mean similar to July numbers or those seen in other Texas cities currently)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/7 vs 12/6	3	17	29	67	66	32	33	13	7	5	272
% of Daily Change	1.10%	6.25%	10.66%	24.63%	24.26%	11.76%	12.13%	4.78%	2.57%	1.84%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.08%	9.61%	27.63%	20.89%	15.21%	11.26%	6.47%	3.20%	2.13%	40,481

[Guest]

Cautious optimism?

Reported...

[workswithseed 2103]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

Cautious optimism?

Reported...

He should had said "two weeks."

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County with 42 admits & 355 cases. 257 people hospitalized (up 11 from yesterday).

Cases following a normal distribution with a slight tilt towards the younger end of the spectrum, in particular 1 to 9 & 10 to 19.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/8 vs 12/7	3	18	42	95	74	53	32	24	11	3	355
% of Daily Change	0.85%	5.07%	11.83%	26.76%	20.85%	14.93%	9.01%	6.76%	3.10%	0.85%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.10%	9.63%	27.62%	20.89%	15.21%	11.24%	6.47%	3.20%	2.12%	40,836

[BrazilHorn 6586]

12/9 Data for Travis County - 256 cases, 47 hospitalized & 265 hospitalized (up 9 from yesterday).

Spike for today's cases skews heavy in the 60+ age groups which is not what we want to see. Bear in mind for 60 to 69 mortality is ~4.5%, 70 to 79 is ~10% and 80+ is ~21%

With those rates in mind the deaths I would project from the spike today are 3-4 deaths. Past two months we have averaged 6.6 deaths/week so this is a big one day potential chunk.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/9 vs 12/8	2	12	21	66	41	38	32	20	18	6	256
% of Daily Change	0.78%	4.69%	8.20%	25.78%	16.02%	14.84%	12.50%	7.81%	7.03%	2.34%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.11%	9.62%	27.61%	20.86%	15.21%	11.25%	6.48%	3.23%	2.12%	41,092

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Here is 12/10 view for Travis County. Really shitty day overall with 427 cases today and 54 new hospital admits. 280 folks in the hospital (up 15 from yesterday)

Fairly normal skew to cases just with of the <40 cases some ups and downs in the groupings.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/10 vs 12/9	4	30	51	96	78	74	49	26	10	9	427
% of Daily Change	0.94%	7.03%	11.94%	22.48%	18.27%	17.33%	11.48%	6.09%	2.34%	2.11%
% of Total Cases	0.53%	3.15%	9.64%	27.56%	20.83%	15.23%	11.26%	6.47%	3.22%	2.12%	41,519

[bschoolprof 6252]

Looking at hospitalization data, El Paso has clearly peaked, Lubbock looks to have peaked, Amarillo maybe sorta, Dallas is slowing down.  So that's good.  Austin is starting to look for a beer holder.  

[ocugolf 1214]

After the steroids wore off, I’m definitely feeling some limited lung capacity and my energy, sans adderal, is quite limited. Mentioned to my doctor and he said it could be six months until lung function gets back to normal.

[B00M 6415]

1 hour ago, ocugolf said:

After the steroids wore off, I’m definitely feeling some limited lung capacity and my energy, sans adderal, is quite limited. Mentioned to my doctor and he said it could be six months until lung function gets back to normal.

How bad were your symptoms? Are you an old or a fat? 

[Hate 20108]

Why not both?

[atomheartbevo 89655]

5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Looking at hospitalization data, El Paso has clearly peaked, Lubbock looks to have peaked, Amarillo maybe sorta, Dallas is slowing down.  So that's good.  Austin is starting to look for a beer holder.  

Yeah, saw the press conference, we could be at stage 5 within two weeks.

FML.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, saw the press conference, we could be at stage 5 within two weeks.

FML.

I could easily see Austin headed that way. It would be easy to line it up with kid’s winter break as well. 
It could get rocky  in a bit

[ocugolf 1214]

10 hours ago, B00M said:

How bad were your symptoms? Are you an old or a fat? 

Not too bad other than being tired and achy, but developed pneumonia. I’m 35 and 6’5” 250ish so not an old but kinda a fat.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Another not great day in terms of cases or admits for Travis County. 382 cases and 52 admits. This is two days in a row of >50 admits (52 & 54) This is first time that has happened since July 22nd & 23rd so ~5 months since we have seen this level of hospital admits. I would expect when schools close next Thursday in AISD for break that Travis goes into lockdown until new calendar year. Good news is we are at 272 people in the hospital (down 8 from yesterday) and haven't been approaching the range of hospitalizations from July (300-400) so that is encouraging. Deaths are released tomorrow for past week, I would anticipate 10-15 based on admits & age spread the past couple of weeks.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/11 vs 12/10	1	16	39	101	63	62	49	34	11	6	382
% of Daily Change	0.26%	4.19%	10.21%	26.44%	16.49%	16.23%	12.83%	8.90%	2.88%	1.57%
% of Total Cases	0.53%	3.16%	9.65%	27.55%	20.79%	15.24%	11.27%	6.50%	3.21%	2.11%	41,901

[BrazilHorn 6586]

I think this is a pretty cool view that shows Month over Month the % increase in cases across the various demographics. You can see that November was a breakout month and I expect to see December to be similar.

I started tracking age based demographics daily in mid july so that's why for this view the first compare is Sep 1 vs Aug 1. You can see where Travis County had a handled on shit Sep & Oct and then wheels started coming off in November.

	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	80+
% Increase Sep 1 to Aug 1	20.37%	36.98%	32.98%	25.27%	25.45%	26.55%	25.79%	30.48%	28.05%	17.80%
% Increase Oct 1 to Sep 1	19.23%	6.46%	28.62%	12.28%	8.87%	8.42%	9.44%	8.77%	8.94%	7.79%
% Increase Nov 1 to Oct 1	7.10%	14.05%	12.23%	9.65%	7.96%	7.11%	8.06%	9.17%	10.11%	5.64%
% Increase Dec 1 to Nov 1	15.66%	21.29%	19.95%	22.57%	20.30%	17.37%	20.39%	21.07%	19.22%	13.27%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Another bad day for hospital admits today with 58 and 235 cases.No super "Gotchas" in the age distribution compared to their pandemic to date share. 289 people in the hospital (up 17 from yesterday). While up a bit on the 60 to 69, we are way lower in the older two groupings (which is a good thing). This is Travis County data.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/12 vs 12/11	0	10	23	69	51	30	28	19	4	1	235
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.26%	9.79%	29.36%	21.70%	12.77%	11.91%	8.09%	1.70%	0.43%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.17%	9.65%	27.56%	20.79%	15.22%	11.27%	6.51%	3.21%	2.10%	42,136

[atomheartbevo 89655]

@BrazilHorn does this make three days in a row of over 50?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County deaths updated. I had called range of 10-15 and we ended up at 11.

For first time in 5 weeks we added a death in the 30 to 39 age range. For first time in 4 weeks we added deaths (2) in the 40 to 49 age category.

The breakout is

30 to 39 (1)

40 to 49 (2)

60 to 69 (3)

70 to 79 (2)

80+ (3)

Edited December 13, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[BrazilHorn 6586]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@BrazilHorn does this make three days in a row of over 50?

yes. first time since July 21st - 23rd. We are only a handful of admits below that three day stretch. Prior to that Travis county was running in 60s to 70s a day range. Unfortunately we appear to be ramping up right now. If you look at Travis County admits over past 9 days in 3 separate 3 day groupings you see:

Dec 10 -12 Avg Admits: 54.66

Dec 7 - 9 Avg Admits: 44

Dec 4 -6 Avg Admits: 31.33

So we are definitely moving in the wrong direction in quick step fashion.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Cases for yesterday in Travis County, 305 with 34 admits. We are holding steady at 295 people hospitalized.

The 34 admits is the first day in the 30s since last Sunday (12/6 with 32)

Cases yesterday stuck to normal pandemic distribution. On local AISD note, the entire 5th grade class at Casis is having to quarantine due to being exposed to someone who is positive. I have a 5th grader there so good times.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/13 vs 12/12	2	12	28	85	67	46	33	21	6	5	305
% of Daily Change	0.66%	3.93%	9.18%	27.87%	21.97%	15.08%	10.82%	6.89%	1.97%	1.64%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.17%	9.64%	27.56%	20.80%	15.22%	11.27%	6.51%	3.20%	2.10%	42,441

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Dec 14th cases  for Travis County - 415 cases with 40 admits & 301 hospitalized. First day >300 hospitalizations since Aug 5th.

No major "A-has" in terms of the age breakout from today's cases. The skew up a little bit in the 1 to 9 & 10 to 19 cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/14 vs 12/13	1	21	48	96	97	57	49	26	10	10	415
% of Daily Change	0.24%	5.06%	11.57%	23.13%	23.37%	13.73%	11.81%	6.27%	2.41%	2.41%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.19%	9.66%	27.52%	20.83%	15.21%	11.27%	6.51%	3.19%	2.10%

[BradInATX 9208]

It's really bizarre how the 7-day moving average flattens out for a period then resumes the spike. I guess it speaks to the super-spreader-event nature of the virus where 80% of the cases come from a small number of events or whatever. Or it could just be wonky data reporting processes. Who knows.

[atomheartbevo 89655]

Teachers are going to be in the second wave of vaccines, after healthcare and nursing homes.   We’ve got a shot at keeping the schools open and not running them through July.  

[kevwun 15774]

What is the process going to be for those of us in none of those categories?  Still haven't seen anything about how and where I'm eventually going to get it.

Edited December 15, 2020 by kevwun

[atomheartbevo 89655]

20 minutes ago, kevwun said:

What is the process going to be for those of us in none of those categories?  Still haven't seen anything about how and where I'm eventually going to get it.

 

[kevwun 15774]

I knew he was an asshole.  No decent non-Amish person would have beard like that.

[strangulation! 1716]

15 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I knew he was an asshole.  No decent non-Amish person would have beard like that.

[dcar00 14181]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

What is the process going to be for those of us in none of those categories?  Still haven't seen anything about how and where I'm eventually going to get it.

March/April

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

Houston med center covid hospitalizations starting to skyrocket

 

Up 20% in the last 3 days

 

Highest in months

[BrazilHorn 6586]

14 hours ago, BradInATX said:

It's really bizarre how the 7-day moving average flattens out for a period then resumes the spike. I guess it speaks to the super-spreader-event nature of the virus where 80% of the cases come from a small number of events or whatever. Or it could just be wonky data reporting processes. Who knows.

I plotted 7 day avg cases vs admits from Mar 18th til present. The admits are on left side Y Axis, the admits on the right side Y axis. I did it this way to more easily show correlation between two. R2 of .962 (No shock - as cases go up, admissions go up)

[Armybrat 40832]

3 hours ago, strangulation! said:

Careful, he doesn’t tolerate rudeness in any man.

ladies might be a different story.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Holy shit! Travis County's wheels came off. Admittedly Tuesday is normally a true-up day but today's 613 cases is the highest daily case amount since July 9th.

40 admits today and 297 patients (down 4 from yesterday) so the interesting thing will be to look 3-5 days from now and see if admits spike.

Cases skew a touch younger but when you are dealing with this case count it doesn't really matter. It has been since mid August since we had more cases in the 60+ category in a single day so this does not bode well for deaths. From today alone I would expect to see 4-5 deaths. Bear in mind our weekly average the past 8 weeks is 7.5 so this is a big day (potentially). If you are planning on big Christmas trips etc, all I can do is tell you that if you are including anyone at high risk (>60 years old or obese or having another condition) you are taking their lives in your hands.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/15 vs 12/14	2	29	74	125	136	98	87	38	16	8	613
% of Daily Change	0.33%	4.73%	12.07%	20.39%	22.19%	15.99%	14.19%	6.20%	2.61%	1.31%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	3.21%	9.70%	27.42%	20.85%	15.22%	11.32%	6.50%	3.18%	2.09%

[Anastasis 23469]

Well fuck. 

[BradInATX 9208]

That's the worst day since mid-July for new cases and the 6th highest Austin has had ever. Ruh roh.

[StruggleBus 3922]

613 cases is a great day in Bexar county. I’m jealous.

[Larry T. Spider 1746]

I knew it was going to be high based on how many kids are out at my school due to direct contact with someone who tested positive. 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

33 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I knew it was going to be high based on how many kids are out at my school due to direct Thanks contact with someone who tested positive. 

Yep. My 5th grader’s entire 5th grade wide class is out of school this week due to a positive test. Crazy. 

[InkaUtexas 25911]

Seguin ISD shut down the HS. rest remains as normal. This back and forth just sucks. 

Man, mad respect for the teachers.  You folks all deserve free beer. As if you did not already.