COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[bluto 4997]

Not a doc but we’re just barely into traditional full on flu season, mid dec thru feb. Which isn’t exactly encouraging for how the winter has started.

Also, the increased mask/hygiene helps keep flu in check I’d guess.

[Surly Bevo 25748]

13 minutes ago, bluto said:

Not a doc but we’re just barely into traditional full on flu season, mid dec thru feb. Which isn’t exactly encouraging for how the winter has started.

Also, the increased mask/hygiene helps keep flu in check I’d guess.

I guess, though December is usually second highest month and if you look here by year this December is looking way lower than last.

 

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html

[Newdoc 3511]

28 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So serious question be interested in any docs here weighing in on.  And before I ask, no I am not belittling Covid, calling it the flu blowing it off....wear a mask, distance etc.  That said where the fuck is old Mr Influenza?  You would figure a disease that spreads in much of the same ways that the Covid that is currently butt fucking us would also be out there doing its generations old thing but by all accounts it's at unusually low levels.  Less virulent strains this season?  The old man say, "fuck it Covid you got this shit I'm gonna head to Bora Bora?"  Just one of those things that generally intrigues me as so many people get it this time of year doing the same things we now all should be avoiding but clearly are not.  

You see, flu and Covid don’t get along. They’re like rival drug cartels. Fighting for local control and distribution.

Actually, it has to do with transmissibility and hygiene measures. Flu isn’t as contagious as Covid. And we are pretty early in the flu season so far. Some seasons will have onset and spikes well into the beginning of the year. 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/uritheflu/88676

[Surly Bevo 25748]

16 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

You see, flu and Covid don’t get along. They’re like rival drug cartels. Fighting for local control and distribution.

Actually, it has to do with transmissibility and hygiene measures. Flu isn’t as contagious as Covid. And we are pretty early in the flu season so far. Some seasons will have onset and spikes well into the beginning of the year. 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/uritheflu/88676

Thanks, so basic premise is "we" are doing enough to stop Old Man Flu just not enough to stop his smart ass young nephew Covid19

[TwiceHorn 32079]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

So serious question be interested in any docs here weighing in on.  And before I ask, no I am not belittling Covid, calling it the flu blowing it off....wear a mask, distance etc.  That said where the fuck is old Mr Influenza?  You would figure a disease that spreads in much of the same ways that the Covid that is currently butt fucking us would also be out there doing its generations old thing but by all accounts it's at unusually low levels.  Less virulent strains this season?  The old man say, "fuck it Covid you got this shit I'm gonna head to Bora Bora?"  Just one of those things that generally intrigues me as so many people get it this time of year doing the same things we now all should be avoiding but clearly are not.  

I read something about this.  The masking and distancing are slowing spread of the flu, imperfect as they are.

It's a vivid illustration of how transmissible this is in comparison to the flu.

[B00M 6734]

22 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The past few days when out jogging, I've seen a fuckton more people wearing masks at our neighorhood park.  Last night, was probably 75-85% in masks.

But a week ago, hardly any masks to be seen.

*sigh*

Big believer in masks here but wearing them outside is mostly illogical. The park would have to be packed, and at that point, just find a different park. 

Making little kids (that barely get it and barely spread it) wear them on a playground because 1-2 other kids or adults are there is insane and probably more damaging than if the kid actually got coronavirus. 

We've got a few nearby playgrounds we take our young kids too and it just makes me sad to see the anxiety these parents are thrusting into their kids. If you think your young kids need to wear a mask to be there, just say it's too crowded and take them somewhere else...

I go out of my way to find situations for my family where none of us have to wear masks so this shit is as normal as possible for them. The extra effort is an investment in their future mental health...

Edited December 24, 2020 by B00M

[Captainant 28539]

I didn't know wearing a mask was such a traumatic experience

[B00M 6734]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I didn't know wearing a mask was such a traumatic experience

It's not if you're mentally mature enough. But there's no way that prolonged daily anxiety is good for children. How many adults posting here have anxiety problems that never experienced anything like this as children? 

Vast majority of young kids don't have the ace-2 expression in their respiratory tracts to get and spread this. There's no need for them to wear masks at a playground. 

 

[Scheiss Meister 8471]

I only wear a mask outdoors when there is a possibility of one or more morons deciding that their desire to get close to me trumps my desire for them to keep the fuck away from me.  Otherwise, no mask outdoors.

[atomheartbevo 90650]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Big believer in masks here but wearing them outside is mostly illogical. The park would have to be packed, and at that point, just find a different park. 

I'm not talking about the CrossFit types spread out on the basketball court or pavilion doing their thing.  My neighborhood park is usually packed, with clusters of adults standing very close to one another around the playground equipment.  Close enough that it could easily spread, as in shoulder to shoulder/within arms-length.

I agree about finding stuff to do where you and the kids don't have to wear masks, but we have a lot of the more sociable types.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

59 minutes ago, B00M said:

But there's no way that prolonged daily anxiety is good for children.

Kids adapt and cope.  When our parents were kids, they played cops and robbers, cowboys and Indians, and Americans vs the Japs.  When we were little kids, we played Sitting Bull vs Custer, FBI agents vs serial killers, and G I Joe vs Cobra.  Now our kids play Americans vs insurgents, cops vs civilians, and doctors and nurses vs covid super spreaders.

And kids do adapt - my son and his second grade classes play all kinds of evolved forms of tag that don't evolve hands touching each other - shadow tag, foot tag, Nerf gun tag.

59 minutes ago, B00M said:

How many adults posting here have anxiety problems that never experienced anything like this as children? 

My anxiety stems from having to watch my kids a lot more than I used to.  A helluva lot more.

[ABSR 5370]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Thanks, so basic premise is "we" are doing enough to stop Old Man Flu just not enough to stop his smart ass young nephew Covid19

And there are 300+ thousands of people who would usually be prime candidates to get the Flu and suffer more severe symptoms (or even death), who are not going to be getting it this season or ever again.

[BradInATX 9208]

Team no masks outside here. Seen enough contact tracing data to feel comfortable. The only times they've credibly traced cases to outdoor stuff were from crowded loud things like the anti mask protests and some of the George Floyd protests.

[washparkhorn 9973]

quick sanity check after speaking with a trumper "doctor" - 

Is there some new research showing masks are ineffective and do not need to be worn? 

Sounds like BS to me, but checking here first in case it's merely a brain virus afflicting anti-maskers. Thanks. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by washparkhorn

[BrazilHorn 6846]

4 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

So serious question be interested in any docs here weighing in on.  And before I ask, no I am not belittling Covid, calling it the flu blowing it off....wear a mask, distance etc.  That said where the fuck is old Mr Influenza?  You would figure a disease that spreads in much of the same ways that the Covid that is currently butt fucking us would also be out there doing its generations old thing but by all accounts it's at unusually low levels.  Less virulent strains this season?  The old man say, "fuck it Covid you got this shit I'm gonna head to Bora Bora?"  Just one of those things that generally intrigues me as so many people get it this time of year doing the same things we now all should be avoiding but clearly are not.  

Huge chunks of kids aren't in school, huge groups of people aren't working in an office setting. Steep drop off in air travel, large indoor social gatherings as well as much more awareness around hand washing & mask wearing are all contributing. Also people used to either a) send sick kids to school or b) go to work themselves with fever/feeling under the weather. Now for those kids that do go in person there is a temperature check, if you go to many gyms/yoga studios there is a temperature check. All of these elements and more are reducing overall impact from influenza dramatically worldwide.

 

[scottsins 2047]

quick sanity check after speaking with a trumper "doctor" - 
Is there some new research showing masks are ineffective and do not need to be worn? 
Sounds like BS to me, but checking here first in case it's merely a brain virus afflicting anti-maskers. Thanks. 

Ask the doctor for his source, since he is so on top of shit.

[washparkhorn 9973]

40 minutes ago, scottsins said:

Ask the doctor for his source, since he is so on top of shit.

That's what I thought.  His answer was "something in the newspaper." I did the research (newspapers, then online -  egads what a tangled mess that is online for so many, then asked here because facts matter here.) 

There is no new study.

Masks will save thousands. Anyone saying otherwise has lost his or her way. 

I wanted to be fair with the guy in-case there was something in his statement. there are consequences for spreading shite when in a position of trust and the patient is part of a vulnerable population. 

and - to make it DT -  . . . the bullshit creates massive inefficiencies in markets and launches waves of negative externalities (costs that are socialized).

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by washparkhorn

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

5 hours ago, B00M said:

It's not if you're mentally mature enough. But there's no way that prolonged daily anxiety is good for children. How many adults posting here have anxiety problems that never experienced anything like this as children? 

Vast majority of young kids don't have the ace-2 expression in their respiratory tracts to get and spread this. There's no need for them to wear masks at a playground. 

 

When does the ace-2 expression develop? I’ve seen covid passed among kids 7 and up but nothing in our lower grade levels.

In general, I would say that the transition to wearing masks has been non-traumatic for our students. We were preparing a bunch of lessons based on age and largely scraped them because the kids have been awesome. Much harder for the adults, myself included.

 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

5 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

quick sanity check after speaking with a trumper "doctor" - 

Is there some new research showing masks are ineffective and do not need to be worn? 

Sounds like BS to me, but checking here first in case it's merely a brain virus afflicting anti-maskers. Thanks. 

Ask the doctor if he or she wears a mask if they were to do surgery or deal with any bodily fluids, and if they say "well, of course", then ask them why.

[Anastasis 23720]

7 hours ago, Captainant said:

I didn't know wearing a mask was such a traumatic experience

My kids are cool with everything that we have out there including consistent mask wearing in all public settings that don’t involve active sports play, but I see certain marks on their psyche and their social interactions and relationships. I don’t think that people should be so flippant about the potential longer term psychological trauma being experienced by our children. It’s hard as shit to balance things out and try to thread the needle between their actual risk and psychological well being. There is much more than just mask wearing involved here in terms of the psychological impacts. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

certain marks on their psyche and their social interactions and relationships

No question. Covid has handed unthinkable misery for all but the privileged few (not anyone here). The damage is there. And it continues.

And the socialization gaps will need to be filled in. Crucial stages of life have been altered - especially for the young.

Hook 'em.

[workswithseed 2204]

Speaking of the mental issues.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/12/22/texas-students-mental-health-coronavirus/

Beginning in April, mental health-related visits to a large sampling of emergency rooms in 47 states increased 24% among children ages 5 to 11 and 31% for those 12 to 17 compared to 2019.

[Anastasis 23720]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Hook 'em.

Merry Christmas. 

[ChiTownDoc 21345]

6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

That's what I thought.  His answer was "something in the newspaper." I did the research (newspapers, then online -  egads what a tangled mess that is online for so many, then asked here because facts matter here.) 

There is no new study.

Masks will save thousands. Anyone saying otherwise has lost his or her way. 

I wanted to be fair with the guy in-case there was something in his statement. there are consequences for spreading shite when in a position of trust and the patient is part of a vulnerable population. 

and - to make it DT -  . . . the bullshit creates massive inefficiencies in markets and launches waves of negative externalities (costs that are socialized).

 

Tell him a doctor you spoke with thinks he’s a fucking quack and should lose his license.  

[washparkhorn 9973]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Tell him a doctor you spoke with thinks he’s a fucking quack and should lose his license.  

recommending TRO.

[scottsins 2047]

5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Tell him a doctor you spoke with thinks he’s a fucking quack and should lose his license.  

Yeah.  I'm not a doctor, but I think I feel comfortable stating that I expect better sources than "the newspaper" from an MD.

[ChiTownDoc 21345]

4 hours ago, scottsins said:

Yeah.  I'm not a doctor, but I think I feel comfortable stating that I expect better sources than "the newspaper" from an MD.

You’d be surprised how many clowns are out there.  Usually they hide in rural areas where they can have their own little bubble.  And that’s no indictment on rural docs as a whole - some of those are the best out there because they have to be good at so much with less specialty care.  

[Armybrat 41408]

Drove up South Congress (SoCo to the hipsters) this Beautiful Sunday afternoon. Area was packed with young people walking around and jamming the outdoor patios & decks at the restaurants. I’d guesstimate that maybe half these educated woke people were wearing masks. 

[BrazilHorn 6846]

No demographic data for Travis County but here are the total numbers from past couple of days

Dec 24th - 461 Cases, 50 admits, 361 Hospitalized

Dec 25th - 256 Cases, 62 admits, 363 Hospitalized

Dec 26th - 415 Cases, 52 admits, 372 Hospitalized

Deaths are updated tomorrow. I am very curious to see what number we land at. I believe range of 10-15 based on age groups the last 10 days or so.

[BradInATX 9208]

Drove up South Congress (SoCo to the hipsters) this Beautiful Sunday afternoon. Area was packed with young people walking around and jamming the outdoor patios & decks at the restaurants. I’d guesstimate that maybe half these educated woke people were wearing masks. 

We were in Austin today and I saw 100% mask usage. Even outdoors at the wildflower center, which seemed unnecessary. But everyone still masked up.

[InkaUtexas 26893]

Hard to drink mimosas and craft beer with a mask on man. 

[Armybrat 41408]

39 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hard to drink mimosas and craft beer with a mask on man. 

I was looking at the pedestrians & people hanging around the stores.

[Cement 314]

 

[BrazilHorn 6846]

We hit the top end of the deaths range I was expecting this past week (week ending 12/26) at 15.

This is the highest week since mid-september.

Deaths fell across the following age groups:

20 to 29 - 1

30 to 39 - 1

50 to 59 - 1

60 to 69 - 1

70 to 79 - 4

80+ - 7

 

[Hate 20249]

I've learned that an uncle of mine has just been moved to ICU because of Covid.  He wasn't particularly healthy before so this might not end well for him.  He's 71, obese, and a diabetic. 

[BrazilHorn 6846]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

I've learned that an uncle of mine has just been moved to ICU because of Covid.  He wasn't particularly healthy before so this might not end well for him.  He's 71, obese, and a diabetic. 

That's rough man, especially on the heels of your grandfather's passing. I hope you and your family are hanging in there as well as you can right now. This fucking virus.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

When do we see the spike from all the college kids that killed grandma at Christmas? About Jan second? 

Hadnt even thought about New Years parties yet. Will mostly be a younger crowd at least.

[mdmost 44049]

Dallas being so much higher than the rest of the state is amazing. I don't get it other than people here just no longer give a shit. 

[atomheartbevo 90650]

People, don't go out looking for who is and isn't wearing masks along South Congress

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/man-runs-over-kills-multiple-people-while-surveying-mask-usage-along-south-congress

Austin Police Looking for Man in Fatal South Congress Pedestrian Incident

AUSTIN -- The Travis County District Attorney's office is filing vehicular manslaughter charges against a Williamson County man who struck and killed 7 people, and injured 32 others.  An attorney for the unidentified man has been notified to surrender his client to Travis County authorities, according to a statement from the district attorney's offie.  

Related: Witnesses describe man running over multiple pedestrians who weren't wearing masks.

The charges maybe upgraded from vehicular manslaughter to vehicular manslaughter with gross negligence.  If convicted of all 7 accounts, the senior citizen could be facing anywhere from probation to 21 years in state prison.

The victims were all walking along South Congress, hanging around stores, or sitting at various outdoor patios and decks of local restaurants when the man, believed to be in his mid-60s, appears to have hit the gas pedal instead of the brakes of his 1992 Buick LeSabre.  Prior to the deadly incident, the man had been spotted asking people if they had attended college or were "woke", and was apparently using a antique Texas Instruments calculator to determine a rough estimate of how many people were wearing masks.  He was also seen taking photographs of women, with a camera that he was holding upside-down.  After being asked to stop taking photographs, he entered his car, pulled on to South Congress, and then began running over people.  Witnesses implored him to stop, but he appears to have been distracted both with his calcuations of mask usage, and with trying to hold his camera right-side up.

The only reason the man's car stopped long enough for witnesses to take down the license plate and give police a description, is because two bodies trapped beneath the vehicle had slowed it down.  As the man pulled the bodies out from underneath his car, he was heard screaming "why couldn't you have been Tom Herman?"  He was then able to drive away, and later led law enforcement officers on a low-speed chase, until he reached an unincorporated part of Williamson County, where he declared the officers had no jurisdiction.

Law enforcement officials believe the individual was conscious during the numerous collisions with pedestrians, and state that there was no evidence that he attempted to brake and slow the car down throughout the ordeal.

Once the individual turns himself in, bail will be set - officials are recommending at least $100,000.  
 

Spoiler

Most of that didn't happen.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Anastasis 23720]

that’s how it’s done folks. 

[InkaUtexas 26893]

Yes, yes it is. 

[DDD Dad 14650]

 An attorney for the unidentified man has been notified to surrender his client to Travis County authorities, according to a statement from the district attorney's offie.  
Prior to the deadly incident, the man had been spotted asking people if they had attended college or were "woke", and was apparently using a antique Texas Instruments calculator to determine a rough estimate of how many people were wearing masks.  He was also seen taking photographs of women, with a camera that he was holding upside-down.   After being asked to stop taking photographs, he entered his car, pulled on to South Congress, and then began running over people.  Witnesses implored him to stop, but he appears to have been distracted both with his calcuations of mask usage, and with trying to hold his camera right-side up.
The only reason the man's car stopped long enough for witnesses to take down the license plate and give police a description, is because two bodies trapped beneath the vehicle had slowed it down.  As the man pulled the bodies out from underneath his car, he was heard screaming "why couldn't you have been Tom Herman?"  He was then able to drive away, and later led law enforcement officers on a low-speed chase, until he reached an unincorporated part of Williamson County, where he declared the officers had no jurisdiction.

Does Armybrat have an alibi?

[Brisketexan 106900]

11 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Does Armybrat have an alibi?

[Scheiss Meister 8471]

I thought that "Why couldn't you have been Tom Herman?" was a fantastic touch.  Well done.

[DDD Dad 14650]

[InkaUtexas 26893]

Cross posted. Interactive map of available ICU beds by hospital. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-hospitals-near-you.html

[Hate 20249]

And it keeps hitting close to home this week. I just learned my uncle passed away this afternoon from Covid. We weren’t very close as he was my dad’s younger brother. Many here know my father was killed in Vietnam when I was a baby, so we didn’t really grow up very close to that side of my family. Still, I have many many fond memories of him from when I was a kid. We talked a few times a year and he would always tell me stories about my Dad as a kid and teenager which I always loved. RIP Uncle Mike.

[InkaUtexas 26893]

Damn man, so sorry for your losses. 

[GreenspointTexas 9970]

I gotta wonder how most people are getting covid at this point of the pandemic

[BrazilHorn 6846]

Bit of a true up as TCAD didn't update demographic data over the holiday break so today is first day they broke out age groupings since 12/23

Cases still skewing younger. We now also have a second age group with >10k cases and that is the 30 to 39 age group (they join the 20 to 29 age group as only groupings with >10k cases thus far)

For 12/27 there were only 216 cases but a whopping 67 admits which puts Travis County at 404 people in the hospital with CV19 (out of ~2500). This is first time we have been >400 people hospitalized since July 25th. We have 136 folks in ICU (out of ~480-500 total ICU beds). The hospital beds and ICU beds are across the three main health systems (Seton, S&W, St. Davids)

Here is the age demo true up.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 12/27 vs 12/23	14	62	119	349	298	197	153	87	43	26	1348
% of Daily Change	1.04%	4.60%	8.83%	25.89%	22.11%	14.61%	11.35%	6.45%	3.19%	1.93%
% of Total Cases	0.53%	3.37%	9.70%	27.28%	20.87%	15.13%	11.32%	6.51%	3.16%	2.12%