COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[gmr548 16482]

Should we have imposed a NYC shutdown in March or when we needed to do it?

America isn't a one size fits all country, but unfortunately we (Texas) applied a one size fits all approach once Manhattan started getting fucked.

Hindsight says maybe we should waited a touch instead of expending our stay-at-home capital when there we're only a couple dozen cases in Travis county.

This surge is tied to the latest phase of reopening. If we hadn't shut down in March, this would've happened sooner. Doing so bought time to scale up other measures of fighting the virus. Unfortunately rushing the reopening appears to have wasted what investments were made.

[Ignatius 4000]

2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

My folks are in Bell County, and they instituted mandatory masks today.

 

I hate the mask law here in NY, but I do it. I’m not sure how the hell Texas started opening without a mask law in place statewide.

 

People in NY will fight you if you walk into a store without a mask on because it’s a danger to their safety.  Sounds like back home it’s still a big fucking political issue....

[Telegraph_it 3353]

My rule. I avoid going anywhere where a mask would be necessary. Well minus an airplane but I needed to leave Texas before it got real bad. 

[justhookit 4174]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but masks aren’t going to fix this. This isn’t spreading in HEB  or Home Depot or the local liquor store or in the furniture store. we need to shut down the bars right now. Like tonight.

We won’t do it but it would also be a really good idea to ask people to stop traveling.

I haven’t had a chance yet to dive into the numbers, but at first glance it looks fucking terrible. We won’t be Italy in 2 weeks. We will be NY minus hopefully the nursing home issue.

 

[justhookit 4174]

So ever since I started paying real attention to what was going on here on this new upswing  - because it basically wasn’t here - we’ve jumped from 331 total cases to 1028 in 2 weeks. Positive tests have gone from around 2.6 percent 2 weeks ago to as of today 6.69 percent for the overall average since this started. If I get bored later or tomorrow I’ll do the math.

We are testing a crapload more people than we were a month ago. The percent positive shouldn’t be moving up that quickly, or at all and should really be going down, since we are now testing anyone who wants a test, sort of like Brisket’s family who all went to get tested after attending a protest. It’s actually maybe the most alarming part of what i’m seeing now.

i put the new case numbers  in a post above, but we’ve jumped what looks like about a 30% increase in hospitalizations and ICU in a day, today. We haven’t even  gotten to where the spike would hit the hospitals yet.

[Spankytoes 1735]

7 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

My folks are in Bell County, and they instituted mandatory masks today.

 

I hate the mask law here in NY, but I do it. I’m not sure how the hell Texas started opening without a mask law in place statewide.

 

It’s ingrained in the Texas culture. I have tons of friends in Dallas and only a handful put on a mask. They won’t be told what to do in a situation where the death toll is low.
 

Contrast that with what I go through. If I enter a client’s building, I need to have 3 layers of legal/HR approval to ensure my safety. A temperature check must be completed prior to entering the building. We need a certification that the room/building has been sanitized 24 hrs prior. If I bring staff/workers, my client must reduce their workforce by the amount of people I bring. Depending on the state, I may be limited to no more than 10 people gathering. Masks, gloves, hand sanitizer and wipes must be provided by my client. If we travel by car, we can’t ride with someone we don’t live with. Up until recently, I was barred from getting in a plane or staying in a hotel for work purposes. (I will have to self-quarantine coming back from Dallas next month, per Cuomo’s recent order) Forget entering a 7-11 without a mask much less a grocery store. I have a washable mask in my car, computer bag and my pocket because I’m tired of forgetting it when I go out. It’s become a way of life for people up here, which is why we were able to flatten the curve so effectively. I haven’t been in the LIRR or subway in months, so we’ll see how that goes. Our office is reopening mid-July on a limited basis.
 

That level of change and sacrifice won’t fly in Texas. Maybe the rock will be chipped away a bit with the spike, but I think it would have to get REAL bad for that to occur. 

[Spankytoes 1735]

7 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I’ve seen so much praise of New York.  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.  What place on this planet has fucked up worse?

It’s like claiming Shawn Watson was a great OC.  

Because you’re completely wrong and don’t know what you’re talking about? I’d start my investigation there.

[Captain Ron 12793]

10 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

I’ve seen so much praise of New York.  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.  What place on this planet has fucked up worse?

Pretty much any place that has spiking cases today. You bitch about how shitty NY has done, yet didn't learn a damn thing from it.

[Captain Ron 12793]

7 hours ago, justhookit said:

So ever since I started paying real attention to what was going on here on this new upswing  - because it basically wasn’t here - we’ve jumped from 331 total cases to 1028 in 2 weeks. Positive tests have gone from around 2.6 percent 2 weeks ago to as of today 6.69 percent for the overall average since this started. If I get bored later or tomorrow I’ll do the math.

We are testing a crapload more people than we were a month ago. The percent positive shouldn’t be moving up that quickly, or at all and should really be going down, since we are now testing anyone who wants a test, sort of like Brisket’s family who all went to get tested after attending a protest. It’s actually maybe the most alarming part of what i’m seeing now.

i put the new case numbers  in a post above, but we’ve jumped what looks like about a 30% increase in hospitalizations and ICU in a day, today. We haven’t even  gotten to where the spike would hit the hospitals yet.

It's called exponential spread. Increased testing can't keep up with it.

And while I won't deny that Texas's testing has increased, outside of the last 2 weeks, I don't see the huge growth in testing that has been talked about.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Looking at pure viral testing, it seems to remain relatively flat for about four weeks from May 16-Jun 12. Even when you look at old data that was just "total test" it wasn't growing all that much. And that leaves out that most growth in testing is just linear.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Captain Ron

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

10 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

It's called exponential spread. Increased testing can't keep up with it.

And while I won't deny that Texas's testing has increased, outside of the last 2 weeks, I don't see the huge growth in testing that has been talked about.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Looking at pure viral testing, it seems to remain relatively flat for about four weeks from May 16-Jun 12. Even when you look at old data that was just "total test" it wasn't growing all that much. And that leaves out that most growth in testing is just linear.

There’s at least 3-4 posts on the last few pages of the other “no politics” thread saying “I’d like to know how much of this increase in cases is due to the big increase in testing.”   Apologies for the caps but maybe someone will read it.  
  
THERE IS NO INCREASED TESTING AND PERCENT POSITIVE HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED.  

[bluto 4880]

Dallas Parkland up to 117 covid px this morning, was 93 a few days ago and 108 ending last wk

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

4 hours ago, Spankytoes said:

It’s ingrained in the Texas culture. I have tons of friends in Dallas and only a handful put on a mask. They won’t be told what to do in a situation where the death toll is low.
 

Contrast that with what I go through. If I enter a client’s building, I need to have 3 layers of legal/HR approval to ensure my safety. A temperature check must be completed prior to entering the building. We need a certification that the room/building has been sanitized 24 hrs prior. If I bring staff/workers, my client must reduce their workforce by the amount of people I bring. Depending on the state, I may be limited to no more than 10 people gathering. Masks, gloves, hand sanitizer and wipes must be provided by my client. If we travel by car, we can’t ride with someone we don’t live with. Up until recently, I was barred from getting in a plane or staying in a hotel for work purposes. (I will have to self-quarantine coming back from Dallas next month, per Cuomo’s recent order) Forget entering a 7-11 without a mask much less a grocery store. I have a washable mask in my car, computer bag and my pocket because I’m tired of forgetting it when I go out. It’s become a way of life for people up here, which is why we were able to flatten the curve so effectively. I haven’t been in the LIRR or subway in months, so we’ll see how that goes. Our office is reopening mid-July on a limited basis.
 

That level of change and sacrifice won’t fly in Texas. Maybe the rock will be chipped away a bit with the spike, but I think it would have to get REAL bad for that to occur. 

Understand.  Our office has been open the entire time because we were deemed an essential business.  That being said, I did not go into the office at all until the last week in April, and we capped it at 4 in the office on any given day (now we are allowing 7).  

Shit, I even wear a mask outside most of the time, unless I can keep my distance.  I know the chances of me giving it to someone in passing outside, or getting it that way, is incredibly low, but if it gives others peace of mind, then I am fine with it.  It if is super humid or hot, I will pull it down and try my damnedest to stay away from folks.  

 

[InkaUtexas 25486]

 

[kevwun 15608]

He's gonna try everything but requiring masks. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Ouch. That's going to hurt a lot of hospitals financially. Baylor Scott & White had to do a round of layoffs the first time they had to shut the ORs down. Ascension was gapping people's hours up to a full week's worth with "pandemic pay" last time which was a pretty cool thing of them to do, but I wonder if they're going to have the financial ability and/or will to do it again this time around.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

He wouldn’t  do that unless his hand was forced.     And Hays County is closing down a bunch of stuff.

[SydneyCarton 47836]

Guess I'll check back in here since it looks like Thunderdome is finally coming for Houston.

I was going to go to Costco yesterday, but said fuck it and just paid someone to do it for me. I've been pretty happy with our own personal routine of shopping, cleaning products, and staying safe, but this...this just feels like the bad shit we prepared for 3 months ago is hitting right when everyone got exhausted and refuses to listen to any instructions or anything anymore. Guess this is the place for updates and whatnot moving forward. Here we go. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[atomheartbevo 89396]

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/shutdown-order-looms-as-austin-travis-county-try-to-avoid-covid-19-swamping-hospitals
 

Quote

The mayor's office confirms Austin Mayor Steve Adler is expected to issue an updated mandate Thursday or Friday. The mandate has become a work in progress as projections keep changing for the expected impact of COVID-19 on Austin and Travis County in the weeks ahead.

 

Quote

Austin and Travis County health experts are now warning the public that hospitals could reach capacity if the community doesn’t take serious measures to slow the spread of COVID-19. Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott says there are 1,500 beds available for COVID-19 patients across Austin area hospitals. And that includes all three major hospital operators-- Acension Seton, Baylor Scott & White, and St. David's Health Care.

 

Quote

The newest projections suggest those 1,500 beds-- and then some-- may be necessary by as soon as mid-July if the rate of new COVID-19 hospitalizations doesn't change soon. Mayor Adler explains, “If we don’t change our trajectory when we get to that point that is 70 hospitalizations a day with a 7-day running average we need to do something pretty severe like really pulling back and get back to where just essential businesses are operating and that kind of thing but our goal is to change that trajectory.”

 

[BradInATX 9208]

The really concerning thing about Austin being included in the elective surgery shutdown is that right now we actually still have a lot of capacity. That must mean that Abbott is looking at data and models that are showing things getting really bad in the near future. Abbott making a move like this that will cause significant financial pain surely has to mean he's looking at some pretty scary stuff coming across his desk.

[InkaUtexas 25486]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He wouldn’t  do that unless his hand was forced.     And Hays County is closing down a bunch of stuff.

We are closing parks and such, but business remains normal. the ISD did close down early summer programs due to an outbreak with the football team's conditioning drills. What else have you heard? 

[Covri 6231]

https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/news/north-texas-family-shaken-after-18-relatives-test-positive-for-covid-19-following-surprise-birthday-party/287-ea8960ea-4c3c-40c1-b75e-f4437fe6f836
 

This is why it’s important to mask up, social distance, and think about others.

[Hornin04 260]

Sucks for the medical community.  We are now just getting back to close to normal surgical volume in my specialty which is almost all elective.  Our office took a huge financial hit and we're still recovering.  If we had to shut down again it would be bad news.

[Anastasis 23390]

32 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He's gonna try everything but requiring masks. 

It makes zero fucking sense. 

[Newdoc 3429]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Abbott making a move like this that will cause significant financial pain surely has to mean he's looking at some pretty scary stuff coming across his desk.

This breaker switch mentality is going to bankrupt hospitals and practices. There is a way to reduce relative risk and keep elective surgeries open. 30 yo healthy patient needs ACL repair then go for it. 80 yo diabetic granny needs new hip then wait. Especially when we have ambulatory surgery centers with low exposure to the hospital with very little risks of healthy patients taking up hospital beds.

[Guest Lobo]

I'm glad so many Texans aren't going to let their support for the front line healthcare workers be obfuscated by something as silly as PPE.  

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

This breaker switch mentality is going to bankrupt hospitals and practices. There is a way to reduce relative risk and keep elective surgeries open. 30 yo healthy patient needs ACL repair then go for it. 80 yo diabetic granny needs new hip then wait. Especially when we have ambulatory surgery centers with low exposure to the hospital with very little risks of healthy patients taking up hospital beds.

 

 

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Yeah, my whole anesthesia group is pretty pissed about the shutdown pt 2, but its looking like it only applying to hospitals and not ASCs and surgery centers (thank god). 
 

some hospitals gonna go bankrupt/teeter on bankruptcy now

[Captain Ron 12793]

48 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He's gonna try everything but requiring masks. 

What's the most troubling is that it might already be too late.

The numbers coming in today are already 2 weeks behind the spread, because you can spread it presymptomatically. As such, any more made today will only start having an effect in 2 weeks. At the earliest. Putting the onus on the municipalities is just foolish, everyone doing it right would still have people around from towns not doing it right.

All I can recommend is that everyone do what they can - don't go out except for essentials and mask, glove and goggle up when going out. Protect yourself and others.

[Guest Lobo]

10 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Yeah, my whole anesthesia group is pretty pissed about the shutdown pt 2, but its looking like it only applying to hospitals and not ASCs and surgery centers (thank god). 
 

some hospitals gonna go bankrupt/teeter on bankruptcy now

Yeah, but Bingo Parlors, Skating Rinks, and Water Parks will remain open with no mask requirements.  So obviously the next effect on GDP will be a wash.  

[El Diablo 4232]

22 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

This breaker switch mentality is going to bankrupt hospitals and practices. There is a way to reduce relative risk and keep elective surgeries open. 30 yo healthy patient needs ACL repair then go for it. 80 yo diabetic granny needs new hip then wait. Especially when we have ambulatory surgery centers with low exposure to the hospital with very little risks of healthy patients taking up hospital beds.

My BIL is a recently retired CEO of a hospital in KS. Talked to him some last week and he told me that his replacement and he were talking about the shutdown there. They have a recently completed surgical complex, the last major project that BIL oversaw,  that they can't use. Totally separate from the hospital but nope, no can use. Makes little sense.

[Wiler77 1556]

Supposed to have a vasectomy on Tuesday.  It's been rescheduled 3 times since March.  Wondering if that's going to happen.  Long time between now and then.

[BrickHorn 18186]

29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It makes zero fucking sense. 

I don’t know. That Florida lady made a pretty compelling case that masks are tools of the Devil working through the Deep State.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Any rumblings of sending the USS comfort to set up shop outside of Houston or Florida?

[Captainant 27405]

2 minutes ago, Wiler77 said:

Supposed to have a vasectomy on Tuesday.  It's been rescheduled 3 times since March.  Wondering if that's going to happen.  Long time between now and then.

Hope you manage to get it scheduled dude, no better time than right now to be stuck immobile and unable to go anywhere

[Guest Lobo]

4 minutes ago, Wiler77 said:

Supposed to have a vasectomy on Tuesday.  It's been rescheduled 3 times since March.  Wondering if that's going to happen.  Long time between now and then.

South Austin's mom said it was a pretty short time between your now and then.  

[Captain Ron 12793]

56 minutes ago, Covri said:

https://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/news/north-texas-family-shaken-after-18-relatives-test-positive-for-covid-19-following-surprise-birthday-party/287-ea8960ea-4c3c-40c1-b75e-f4437fe6f836
 

This is why it’s important to mask up, social distance, and think about others.

 

Hell, this is why you don't host indoor gatherings. That's something well beyond masks and social distancing.

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Lack of a mask mandate will cost Abbott re-election

[NorthLoop 14082]

1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lack of a mask mandate will cost Abbott re-election

I wish that were true but I feel like anti-maskers outnumber normal good people in this state. 

[Js1 85085]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I wish that were true but I feel like anti-maskers outnumber normal good people in this state. 

And by that, you mean West Texas, East Texas and the Jesus-y burbs. 

[stork642 4498]

Just saw on the news in Houston that TMC ICU IS AT 97% capacity but they didn’t mention until the very end that only 27% is Covid pts.  They normally run 70-80% so I guess anything on top of that puts them close to total capacity.  I wasn’t aware the ICUs ran so close to capacity on a regular basis.  So really any increase due to Covid puts a major strain on ICUs so it’s pretty unrealistic to think this isn’t going to happen at some point.  Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

[stork642 4498]

9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lack of a mask mandate will cost Abbott re-election

Ballgame?

[drt 637]

Just now, stork642 said:

Just saw on the news in Houston that TMC ICU IS AT 97% capacity but they didn’t mention until the very end that only 27% is Covid pts.  They normally run 70-80% so I guess anything on top of that puts them close to total capacity.  I wasn’t aware the ICUs ran so close to capacity on a regular basis.  So really any increase due to Covid puts a major strain on ICUs so it’s pretty unrealistic to think this isn’t going to happen at some point.  Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

If hospitals don't run close to capacity they lose money, ICUs are no exception.

[Hanrahan 1306]

5 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Just saw on the news in Houston that TMC ICU IS AT 97% capacity but they didn’t mention until the very end that only 27% is Covid pts.  They normally run 70-80% so I guess anything on top of that puts them close to total capacity.  I wasn’t aware the ICUs ran so close to capacity on a regular basis.  So really any increase due to Covid puts a major strain on ICUs so it’s pretty unrealistic to think this isn’t going to happen at some point.  Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

It's at 97% of base capacity, of 1330 beds.  The surge capacity is 2,200 beds.

 

[SA-KC_Horn 1293]

3 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

Since this began in early March, I believed people would be responsible and have some empathy for others, but no there are a lot of people who suck and think it is their right to do whatever the fuck they want.

[BradInATX 9208]

Just saw on the news in Houston that TMC ICU IS AT 97% capacity but they didn’t mention until the very end that only 27% is Covid pts.  They normally run 70-80% so I guess anything on top of that puts them close to total capacity.  I wasn’t aware the ICUs ran so close to capacity on a regular basis.  So really any increase due to Covid puts a major strain on ICUs so it’s pretty unrealistic to think this isn’t going to happen at some point.  Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

There is still about 40 extra percent of "sustainable" ICU overflow at TMC so it's not ballgame yet but they desperately need to curve to start going the other way soon. There was an infographic on one of these threads. Something like 40% extra sustainable overflow and another 50% temporary/unsustainable

 

NM.. hanrahan two posts up has it covered

[Ignatius 4000]

2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Understand.  Our office has been open the entire time because we were deemed an essential business.  That being said, I did not go into the office at all until the last week in April, and we capped it at 4 in the office on any given day (now we are allowing 7).  

Shit, I even wear a mask outside most of the time, unless I can keep my distance.  I know the chances of me giving it to someone in passing outside, or getting it that way, is incredibly low, but if it gives others peace of mind, then I am fine with it.  It if is super humid or hot, I will pull it down and try my damnedest to stay away from folks.  

 

I go in once a week (Brooklyn to FiDi); fucking homeless people on the subway wear masks....

[gmr548 16482]

There is still about 40 extra percent of "sustainable" ICU overflow at TMC so it's not ballgame yet but they desperately need to curve to start going the other way soon. There was an infographic on one of these threads. Something like 40% extra sustainable overflow and another 50% temporary/unsustainable 
NM.. hanrahan two posts up has it covered

Surge capacity isn't where you want to be. It degrades quality of care, wears staff thin, and puts them at higher risk of getting sick, which compounds the problem. It's a tool, not a magic bullet with no consequences. The bigger issue is that we're starting to hit it with no real sign of slowing the spread.

[Captainant 27405]

24 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I wish that were true but I feel like anti-maskers outnumber normal good people in this state. 

Hell, up until a month ago that seemed to be the case here in DT lol. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

13 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

Since this began in early March, I believed people would be responsible and have some empathy for others, but no there are a lot of people who suck and think it is their right to do whatever the fuck they want.

I've gotten a lot of comments from the newly-converted along the lines "if it was such a big deal, why didn't they MAKE me do this stuff?  If I'm 'allowed' to do something, that means it's OK to do it.  I shouldn't have been free to do things if they were a bad idea."  

Apparently the populace is a collective 4-year-old.  

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

24 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Just saw on the news in Houston that TMC ICU IS AT 97% capacity but they didn’t mention until the very end that only 27% is Covid pts.  They normally run 70-80% so I guess anything on top of that puts them close to total capacity.  I wasn’t aware the ICUs ran so close to capacity on a regular basis.  So really any increase due to Covid puts a major strain on ICUs so it’s pretty unrealistic to think this isn’t going to happen at some point.  Hopefully people will be more diligent and wear masks to help reduce this surge.   

Hospitals in the US run super lean. If you have an empty bed, it is wasted money.