COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Brisketexan 106907]

Not to suck my own cock, but yeah.  Still sticking to the prediction that life in the US will largely be back to “normal” by Memorial Day.  CDC will declare the pandemic over by July 4th.
Its a damn shame to see so many people get sick and die within 3-4 months of this thing being (mostly) beaten.  I think a lot of people who had been relatively careful from Mar-Aug just gave up by Thanksgiving and Christmas.

I wish I shared your optimism. 4-6 weeks ago, I thought Memorial Day would be a big milestone. Now, due to slow rollout, I’m thinking more like July 4th, and some reasonable return to normal in September-October. And even then....it really may be year end.

Sigh.

[InkaUtexas 26899]

Hate to say I agree with you. Now we need to watch St. Patricks Day and Spring break. 

[smoky 842]

We are hopefully on the downside of the second spike. If it follows the Spanish flu timeline, there'll be a third spike

[atomheartbevo 90651]

11 minutes ago, smoky said:

We are hopefully on the downside of the second spike. If it follows the Spanish flu timeline, there'll be a third spike

Well.....

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Now we need to watch St. Patricks Day and Spring break. 

 

[gmr548 16702]

Not to suck my own cock, but yeah.  Still sticking to the prediction that life in the US will largely be back to “normal” by Memorial Day.  CDC will declare the pandemic over by July 4th.
Its a damn shame to see so many people get sick and die within 3-4 months of this thing being (mostly) beaten.  I think a lot of people who had been relatively careful from Mar-Aug just gave up by Thanksgiving and Christmas.

I would bet anything the CDC/WHO does not declare the pandemic over by July 4. I think it’s very possible we in the US are in a much better place by then, but this will be lingering in the developed world and having smaller outbreaks here well into 2022. Back to normal by Memorial Day seems optimistic, but I suppose there’s a political angle to it. I could see places like Texas and Florida lifting all restrictions by then even if experts say that’s premature.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

For the love of God can we just be back to normal by late August? Parents, students and educators can’t deal with this for another year.

[InkaUtexas 26899]

Sure, lets mandate a date. Dear COVID, GTFO by August 15th. 

Man, I know how you feel and I wish we could, but I really do not think it is that easy. I guess if we all wish really really hard.....  

[dcar00 14974]

2 hours ago, smoky said:

We are hopefully on the downside of the second spike. If it follows the Spanish flu timeline, there'll be a third spike

the difference is the vax has a chance to kill(or greatly reduce) that 3rd spike.  will keep hoping.

[Surly Bevo 25753]

Yea I mean it's obvious to anybody remotely paying attention who also has a functioning brain (important caveat) that spikes get the most spikey after country-wide get togethers.  So expect another one from aforementioned Spring Break, Easter, St Pats Day time period (good lord hope the Super Bowl doesn't cause one...but dumb gonna dumb)  but would hope that the amplitude is significantly muted by vax work up to that point.  21M jabs in across US.  Hope that can be 50-60 before the first Texas State InstaWhore shows up in Destin.  

Edited January 23, 2021 by Surly Bevo

[Message Board User 12406]

24 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

For the love of God can we just be back to normal by late August? Parents, students and educators can’t deal with this for another year.

Yeah it's unfathomable to me that by the time August rolls around there will be thousands (millions?) of students nationwide who will not have set foot in a classroom in almost 18 months.

[InkaUtexas 26899]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Yea I mean it's obvious to anybody remotely paying attention who also has a functioning brain (important caveat) that spikes get the most spikey after country-wide get togethers.  So expect another one from aforementioned Spring Break, Easter, St Pats Day time period (good lord hope the Super Bowl doesn't cause one...but dumb gonna dumb)  but would hope that the amplitude is significantly muted by vax work up to that point.  21M jabs in across US.  Hope that can be 50-60 before the first Texas State InstaWhore shows up in Destin.  

Kind sir, as a resident of San Marcos please contain your hate of the Texas State Instawhore. Shall we discuss Denton? Texas Tech? Or how aggy is going to fuck a sheep and there will be the next great mutation? 

[atomheartbevo 90651]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

For the love of God can we just be back to normal by late August? Parents, students and educators can’t deal with this for another year.

Hopefully by then, teachers/staff should all be vaccinated (hell, they should be all vaccinated within 2 or 3 months, since they were bumped up in priority), and a helluva lot of grandparents and parents should as well.  We are up to over 300,000 vaccines coming into Texas every week now, and supposedly increasing soon.  That's not that many but hopefully enough to get those in Phase 1B, including teachers, vaccinated.

By August, a big chunk of those not vaccinated are going to be either the anti-vaxxer idiots, or those who have little chance of being seriously harmed by it.

Then again, new strains keep popping up.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I would bet anything the CDC/WHO does not declare the pandemic over by July 4. I think it’s very possible we in the US are in a much better place by then, but this will be lingering in the developed world and having smaller outbreaks here well into 2022. Back to normal by Memorial Day seems optimistic, but I suppose there’s a political angle to it. I could see places like Texas and Florida lifting all restrictions by then even if experts say that’s premature.

You are probably right that the cdc will not declare an end to the pandemic by July out of a fear of small outbreaks.  Part of my optimism is due to the evidence that the primary damage this virus does is put old people in the hospital then kill them.  So I don’t think we necessarily need to get to full herd immunity before we can resume normal life.  Once the over 65 demo gets immune (which I expect to be by mid March) the number of diagnosed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will start to drop rapidly and dramatically.  Too soon to fully tell, but this seems to be being proven out currently in Israel.

[Anastasis 23721]

If July 4 is the date for the O/U on the CDC declaring the pandemic over I will bet every last dollar in every last account and every dollar that I can borrow or leverage on the over. 

[fattyflattie 4640]

57 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Kind sir, as a resident of San Marcos please contain your hate of the Texas State Instawhore. Shall we discuss Denton? Texas Tech? Or how aggy is going to fuck a sheep and there will be the next great mutation? 

Hate?  You living there doesn’t erase all the memories we acquired throughout college. 

[InkaUtexas 26899]

4 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Hate?  You living there doesn’t erase all the memories we acquired throughout college. 

Oh you talking them Southwest Texas womenz.... Yeah, got ya... Sorry, just defending my admin and another good friends honor. 

[BrazilHorn 6847]

33 deaths last week in Travis County. Highest number of deaths since Aug 15th. In top 5 for number of deaths pandemic to date.

367 cases yesterday with 74 admits. 27 of the deaths last week were from 60+

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/23 vs  vs 1/22	4	11	33	94	85	60	35	20	15	10	367
% of Daily Change	1.09%	3.00%	8.99%	25.61%	23.16%	16.35%	9.54%	5.45%	4.09%	2.72%
% of Total Cases	0.58%	3.78%	9.78%	26.28%	20.94%	15.07%	11.43%	6.73%	3.22%	2.19%

 

[InkaUtexas 26899]

44 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Oh you talking them Southwest Texas womenz.... Yeah, got ya... Sorry, just defending my admin and another good friends honor. 

Drool brother. I am quite pleased with my tiny social bubble living here. Though I do miss the talent show on a Friday at Zelicks. 

[Message Board User 12406]

16 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Yeah it's unfathomable to me that by the time August rolls around there will be thousands (millions?) of students nationwide who will not have set foot in a classroom in almost 18 months.

Nate Silver tweeting this morning what I posted yesterday.

 

[BrazilHorn 6847]

I am all for Biden's plan to open schools. I laugh a little at doing it in 100 days. That is mid April which leaves basically about a month left for school to be open at al for the school year. Don't see people giving a shit at that point about sending kids back for last month of school year.

I think the ones that have had their kids in school will keep them there and those who have held back will keep them held back.

[South Austin 53228]

21 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I am all for Biden's plan to open schools. I laugh a little at doing it in 100 days. That is mid April which leaves basically about a month left for school to be open at al for the school year. Don't see people giving a shit at that point about sending kids back for last month of school year.

I think the ones that have had their kids in school will keep them there and those who have held back will keep them held back.

Yeah, my kids have been virtual and will likely finish the school year that way.

But Sweater God, my kids will attend school in person come August.

[BrazilHorn 6847]

54 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Yeah, my kids have been virtual and will likely finish the school year that way.

But Sweater God, my kids will attend school in person come August.

This. I would rather Biden say "We will 100% have schools ready to be opened for in person learning in the fall" vs a rush job symbolic one month opening.

 

[Pato del Muerto 53511]

3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Nate Silver tweeting this morning what I posted yesterday.

 

There’s no reason that remote learning can’t be as effective as in person.  Many people choose remote learning, UT has an online high school available for use and it’s been there long before the pandemic. 
home school parents have been doing teaching at home forever. 

the differentiator is whether it is good education, which usually is dependent on the interest level of the parent/caretaker of the child. 

[XYZ 2154]

Yeah, but school is not just for learning. There’s socializing, too.

[Pato del Muerto 53511]

10 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Yeah, but school is not just for learning. There’s socializing, too.

There’s nothing stopping these kids from socializing.  My kids, and most kids I know that aren’t going to a school, still interact with each other. 

[Hate 20249]

My son has been in school since October.  It's been really good for him to be back in the building.  He did not learn shit when he was remote. 

[Message Board User 12406]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

There’s no reason that remote learning can’t be as effective as in person.  Many people choose remote learning, UT has an online high school available for use and it’s been there long before the pandemic. 
home school parents have been doing teaching at home forever. 

the differentiator is whether it is good education, which usually is dependent on the interest level of the parent/caretaker of the child. 

Online learning is a great option for kids of wealthy parents and high-achieving high schoolers.

But for poor kids, or kids of parents who don't give a shit, or special ed kids (especially younger)?  Tantamount to child abuse or neglect.

I mean, how the hell is a dyslexic kid going to get his needs met online?

[Pato del Muerto 53511]

No, special Ed kids need in person schooling and occupational therapy by trained people. If they can get that in a home environment, great. 
 

but that’s different than lamenting “an entire generation” dealing with this for a year or two. 

[atomheartbevo 90651]

 

[BrazilHorn 6847]

80 admits today and 305 cases. 10 cases more than last Sunday. Concern is that while lower numbers today it skewed higher among 60+.

I expect to see 4-6 deaths from today's cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/24 vs  vs 1/23	5	15	24	53	64	49	37	28	21	9	305
% of Daily Change	1.64%	4.92%	7.87%	17.38%	20.98%	16.07%	12.13%	9.18%	6.89%	2.95%
% of Total Cases	0.58%	3.79%	9.77%	26.24%	20.94%	15.08%	11.43%	6.74%	3.24%	2.20%

[bmbmd 1040]

So I've been wearing my knock-off KN-95 masks  and eye protection religiously, washing my hands, keeping distance, staying home etc since March 2020.  I've treated dozens of active Covid patients who somehow made it past the gestapo that guards my front door. I've also been face to face with virus spewers in the hospital.  Finally in December I got my first line Pfizer injection, followed by the second three weeks later.  By the grace of God, assisted by good technique and hygiene, O Pos blood type, supplements, and a healthy serving of good luck, I remained disease free. So, now that I am supposedly immune, what do you think arrived last Thursday?  That's right-genuine made in America 3-M N-95 masks, courtesy of the home office.  Bet your ass I'm grateful.  I'll cinch those bad boys around my noggin 'til the cows come home.  

[atomheartbevo 90651]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

80 admits today and 305 cases. 10 cases more than last Sunday. Concern is that while lower numbers today it skewed higher among 60+.

As a whole, positives seem to be dropping every day for the past week, and it seems like a fairly steep decline.

Can we explain that by truly saying that there's less infected people, or is there something in the numbers that is not clear?

[DDD Dad 14653]

As a whole, positives seem to be dropping every day for the past week, and it seems like a fairly steep decline.
Can we explain that by truly saying that there's less infected people, or is there something in the numbers that is not clear?

[dcar00 14974]

On 1/23/2021 at 7:06 PM, Anastasis said:

If July 4 is the date for the O/U on the CDC declaring the pandemic over I will bet every last dollar in every last account and every dollar that I can borrow or leverage on the over. 

agreed. it won't be declared over this year IMO.  too many strains reported.  one or 2 of them will most certainly be deadly.

[bschoolprof 6343]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

As a whole, positives seem to be dropping every day for the past week, and it seems like a fairly steep decline.

Can we explain that by truly saying that there's less infected people, 

Yes.  The winter surge is waning pretty much everywhere.  We have hit the backside of Farr's curve for this wave.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

22 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

We have hit the backside of Farr's curve for this wave.  

sounds pretty gay tbh

[BradInATX 9208]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

As a whole, positives seem to be dropping every day for the past week, and it seems like a fairly steep decline.

Can we explain that by truly saying that there's less infected people, or is there something in the numbers that is not clear?

They are reporting normally and on a daily basis now. Hopefully we're on the downside of cases from the holidays which means hospitalizations will follow in the next 10-14 days. 

[Axle Hongsnort 210]

agreed. it won't be declared over this year IMO.  too many strains reported.  one or 2 of them will most certainly be deadly.

What about 7/4 being the O/U on concerts and large gatherings occurring again? One can hope.

[Guest Lobo]

^

I would definitely take the over for that.  LiveNation (which includes C3 Presents) has conceded it won't be doing any large production until August/September timeframe.  Obviously some rogue  festival production will probably take place somewhere this summer by a smaller company.  Venues with assigned seating to allow for firm distancing that can also ensure patrons aren't overserved and forgetting mitigation measures is what they're looking to do starting in April/May.  So not large outdoor festivals.  

[BradInATX 9208]

12 minutes ago, Axle Hongsnort said:

What about 7/4 being the O/U on concerts and large gatherings occurring again? One can hope.

I think it's almost a certainty that concerts will be back by then. I've got tickets to the Black Pumas on Memorial Day weekend at Stubbs and I fully expect it will happen. These venues won't survive losing another summer.

Edited January 25, 2021 by BradInATX

[Snake Diggity 4714]

10 hours ago, dcar00 said:

agreed. it won't be declared over this year IMO.  too many strains reported.  one or 2 of them will most certainly be deadly.

FWIW Moderna announced today that their vaccine is confirmed to work on the 2 new strains.

 

If we are vaccinating 2M/day from Feb thru Jul, by 7/4 we will have vaccinated ~350M people.  That's pretty much everybody.  Even if we average half that (which is what they are doing now, before JNJ even brings theirs to market), it's 150M people, with another 40M-100M who are unvaccinated with immunity from having contracted it and recovered.  The upper range of that number gets the gen pop to herd immunity.  All of that ignores the fact that the bulk of the risk associated with this virus only relates to <1/3 of the population, so once that section is immune the risk (and reason to have mitigation strategies in place) will plummet.

Like I said I agree I am likely wrong about the CDC actually declaring the pandemic over.  But unless you believe a strain will develop in the next 2-3 months that the vaccine does not work against, or you believe that the vaccine rollout will be completely derailed even moreso than it already has been, the pandemic will very, very likely be over this summer.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[Snake Diggity 4714]

53 minutes ago, Axle Hongsnort said:

What about 7/4 being the O/U on concerts and large gatherings occurring again? One can hope.

IMHO there will def be some form of outdoor concerts by then.  Whether the packed bars or huge festivals are going on is questionable.

 

My expectation is that in April, when hospitalizations have gone WAY down (possibly even to pre-2020 levels) and vaccinations have gone WAY up, everyone will start to re-assess, and it will sound a lot more reasonable to remove most restrictions.

[BradInATX 9208]

14 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

FWIW Moderna announced today that their vaccine is confirmed to work on the 2 new strains.

 

If we are vaccinating 2M/day from Feb thru Jul, by 7/4 we will have vaccinated ~350M people.  That's pretty much everybody.  Even if we average half that (which is what they are doing now, before JNJ even brings theirs to market), it's 150M people, with another 40M-100M who are unvaccinated with immunity from having contracted it and recovered.  The upper range of that number gets the gen pop to herd immunity.  All of that ignores the fact that the bulk of the risk associated with this virus only relates to <1/3 of the population, so once that section is immune the risk (and reason to have mitigation strategies in place) will plummet.

Like I said I agree I am likely wrong about the CDC actually declaring the pandemic over.  But unless you believe a strain will develop in the next 2-3 months that the vaccine does not work against, or you believe that the vaccine rollout will be completely derailed even moreso than it already has been, the pandemic will very, very likely be over this summer.

 

Yeah, I just don't understand the continued idea that we're not going to be back to (fairly) normal very soon. Just back of the napkin math:

Right now a conservative estimate is 100 million with existing immunity via having had the virus. 

1 million vaccines a day. Accounting for the vaccine being 90% effective, and accounting for ~30% of vaccinations being "wasted" on people who already have immunity, that means every day we add about 630,000 new immune people.  At that rate, by April 1st, 65% of Americans over the age of 18 will have immunity. If we increase our output to 1.5 million per day which is not only doable but probably lowballing it some, that number is 74% of adults. These estimates are likely on the low side of reality, because they're also not accounting for new cases between now and April 1 which would be a few million more.

By April 1st, here's what things are going to look like:

- 2/3 of adults in America have Covid immunity
- Almost every senior citizen (who wants it) vaccinated. Everybody with risk factors who wants it vaccinated
- Hospital admissions are going to be almost rock bottom, onesy-twosy type stuff.
- Deaths are going to be the same way. Near-zero regionally.
- The weather will be warmed up which helps transmission

If ya'll think we're not opening up basically fully at that point, ya'll are insane. Memorial Day is going to be the biggest party weekend our country has seen in a long time.

Edited January 25, 2021 by BradInATX

[BrazilHorn 6847]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

As a whole, positives seem to be dropping every day for the past week, and it seems like a fairly steep decline.

Can we explain that by truly saying that there's less infected people, or is there something in the numbers that is not clear?

I think we are past the big holiday "surge" to some degree and that is helping. The 7 day is looking better due to the fact that the crazy 1000k day of cases has fallen off. Cases is always screwy as you never know what will trigger people to get tested. I would expect the next big run to be in advance of Spring Break in March as people get tested for travel and then post Spring Break as people come back infected.

If pattern holds the next three weeks or so of deaths are going to be extra shitty (this past week @ 33 was the start)

 

[dcar00 14974]

14 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

FWIW Moderna announced today that their vaccine is confirmed to work on the 2 new strains.

 

If we are vaccinating 2M/day from Feb thru Jul, by 7/4 we will have vaccinated ~350M people.  That's pretty much everybody.  Even if we average half that (which is what they are doing now, before JNJ even brings theirs to market), it's 150M people, with another 40M-100M who are unvaccinated with immunity from having contracted it and recovered.  The upper range of that number gets the gen pop to herd immunity.  All of that ignores the fact that the bulk of the risk associated with this virus only relates to <1/3 of the population, so once that section is immune the risk (and reason to have mitigation strategies in place) will plummet.

Like I said I agree I am likely wrong about the CDC actually declaring the pandemic over.  But unless you believe a strain will develop in the next 2-3 months that the vaccine does not work against, or you believe that the vaccine rollout will be completely derailed even moreso than it already has been, the pandemic will very, very likely be over this summer.

hope you are right but I predict there will be more deadly strains reported of this.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

hope you are right but I predict there will be more deadly strains reported of this.

If the vaccine works against the new strains it really doesn't matter very much how deadly they are.  Are you saying you expect a strain to develop in the next 60 days that the vaccine does not work against?  I consider that extremely unlikely at this point; that would be some true shit luck.

[BradInATX 9208]

Also, viruses typically mutate into more transmissible, less deadly strains. 

[Skipper 6411]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

By April 1st, here's what things are going to look like:

- 2/3 of adults in America have Covid immunity

I generally agree with your premise.  But by your calculations assuming 2/3 immunity are you including those that have gotten first dose by that date or those that have received both doses/full immunity?

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I generally agree with your premise.  But by your calculations assuming 2/3 immunity are you including those that have gotten first dose by that date or those that have received both doses/full immunity?

A small portion of them would only have the first vaccine, but the majority would have both. I didn't go to that level of detail so can't give exact numbers, but it'd be whatever the 2 week lag represents

Edited January 25, 2021 by BradInATX

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

20 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Online learning is a great option for kids of wealthy parents and high-achieving high schoolers.

But for poor kids, or kids of parents who don't give a shit, or special ed kids (especially younger)?  Tantamount to child abuse or neglect.

I mean, how the hell is a dyslexic kid going to get his needs met online?

By looking at his monitor in a mirror, duh.