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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


justhookit

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707 cases in Travis County today along with 88 admits. 9 cases in the <1 age group. I expect to see a correction on this as typically when this type of high number has happened in the past there ends up being an adjustment. Otherwise some shit went down in a nursery/daycare.

Nice to see the 80+ group drop below their average for first time in a couple of weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/28 vs  vs 1/27 9 37 75 149 138 118 87 56 28 10 707
% of Daily Change 1.27% 5.23% 10.61% 21.07% 19.52% 16.69% 12.31% 7.92% 3.96% 1.41%  
% of Total Cases 0.58% 3.83% 9.88% 26.08% 20.85% 15.08% 11.45% 6.77% 3.28% 2.21%  
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454 cases in Travis County today (~100 less than a week ago Friday). 54 admits today which is the first day with <60 admits since 1/11)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/29 vs  vs 1/28 5 32 47 98 90 73 62 23 17 7 454
% of Daily Change 1.10% 7.05% 10.35% 21.59% 19.82% 16.08% 13.66% 5.07% 3.74% 1.54%  
% of Total Cases 0.59% 3.85% 9.88% 26.05% 20.84% 15.08% 11.46% 6.76% 3.28% 2.21%  
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On 1/26/2021 at 7:32 AM, BradInATX said:

My money is on the vaccine preventing spread like every other vaccine in history. The media is acting irresponsibly here. They hear a scientist say "right now we don't have enough data to decisively conclude that the vaccine prevents spread", and the headline is "Covid vaccine doesn't prevent spread zomg". Dumb.

 

THIS!

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On 1/26/2021 at 11:11 AM, immamac said:

I made it up like fox news.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

Basically no one knows, and the only safe assumption without hard evidence proving otherwise is to assume that it now becomes a "common cold" at it's worst when vaccinated. 

This has been my problem throughout the pandemic: Every swinging dick scientist, doctor or researcher are rushing to the press/web with "findings" that are not ready for prime time. From the early covid days of WHO saying masks don't work to the Penn State Dr saying that 100% of "his" players had heart damage to researchers saying vaccine not working etc etc etc

Everyone of these people are so fucking eager to be on the "Today" show or with Anderson Cooper that they hurry research, make bad assumptions from limited data, use bad metrics to begin with and it just fuels the mouth breathers that are saying they won't get the vaccine, wear masks etc. This makes the "trust the data/science" argument a difficult one to manage and it allows people to continually move the goal posts and change their definition of what "safe" is

It just seems like we have a bunch of "Lyle Lanley" type people in the medical community trying to sell monorails all the damn time. It's annoying. As someone who follows the data and sees it ignored/twisted/picked apart to find the one little point that proves something it has gotten very old.

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270 cases today for Travis County (~100 less than last Saturday). Nice to see the >60 group drop their share today (and this is a couple days in a row). This drop in 60+ is encouraging as we had our 2nd week in a row with 30+ deaths (30), 27 of the 30 were from 60+.

65 admits today down from 54 last Saturday. I think we have a couple of more weeks 30+ deaths ahead of us due to lag but this is a couple of days of positive momentum vs where we have been.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/30 vs  vs 1/29 2 15 30 77 57 39 31 12 3 4 270
% of Daily Change 0.74% 5.56% 11.11% 28.52% 21.11% 14.44% 11.48% 4.44% 1.11% 1.48%  
% of Total Cases 0.59% 3.86% 9.89% 26.06% 20.84% 15.08% 11.46% 6.75% 3.27% 2.20%  

 

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Little bit of a reversal today with ~150 cases more today than last Sunday. 441 cases today with 60 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/31 vs  vs 1/30 2 20 54 118 90 60 47 20 17 13 441
% of Daily Change 0.45% 4.54% 12.24% 26.76% 20.41% 13.61% 10.66% 4.54% 3.85% 2.95%  
% of Total Cases 0.59% 3.86% 9.90% 26.06% 20.84% 15.07% 11.46% 6.74% 3.27% 2.21%  
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We had a little dip for a couple of days in cases compared to prior week but yesterday and today have us moving in wrong direction again here in Travis County.

677 cases today (around 130 more than last week Monday). The real nice thing about today is only 41 admits happened. This is the first time Travis County has been <50 admits in a given day since Dec 20th. This is very encouraging.

Lots of cases in the <1 age group which makes me think they added some back in from where they took some out a couple of weeks ago. These fluctuations seem to happen in the smaller case number cohorts.

The 70 to 79 cohort is higher than its typical share which is not something I like seeing due to the ~10% mortality rate there.

New Cases 2/1 vs  vs 1/31 8 39 90 171 137 79 64 47 28 14 677
% of Daily Change 1.18% 5.76% 13.29% 25.26% 20.24% 11.67% 9.45% 6.94% 4.14% 2.07%  
% of Total Cases 0.59% 3.88% 9.93% 26.05% 20.84% 15.04% 11.44% 6.74% 3.28% 2.21%  
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We're at a pretty key and interesting time for the numbers. Hospitalizations are plummeting like the aggy rollercoaster in November. The 7 day moving average chart is beautiful. But cases look like they're ticking back up some like  @BrazilHorn mentioned. 

If we see hospitalizations continue to go down over the next couple of weeks, without a bounce in about 5-10 days corresponding to the increase in cases, then that'll be great news. It'll mean the vaccines are shielding the most vulnerable and that we're reducing mortality risk even while cases still chug along. 

Eventually the cases line isn't going to correlate to the hospitalizations/deaths lines two weeks later, and that divergence is when we know we're seeing vaccine impact. We're going to get to a point where number of cases doesn't really matter, as long as the death/hospitalization numbers are negligible or flu-level.

Edited by BradInATX
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I'm surprised case numbers are increasing. The virus didn't follow the attenuated sine wave that I predicted. The largest spike in cases wasn't the first outbreak back in March and the spikes didn't decrease at each succeeding outbreak from Labor Day/School start, Thanksgiving, and then Christmas/New Years. I thought the stupid people would catch it first and then after awhile there wouldn't be enough stupid people to spread it, but I guess once it got into schools and workplaces reopened and people got lax, there were too many avenues for spread.

imgbin-transient-response-oscillation-da

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'm surprised case numbers are increasing. The virus didn't follow the attenuated sine wave that I predicted. The largest spike in cases wasn't the first outbreak back in March and the spikes didn't decrease at each succeeding outbreak from Labor Day/School start, Thanksgiving, and then Christmas/New Years. I thought the stupid people would catch it first and then after awhile there wouldn't be enough stupid people to spread it, but I guess once it got into schools and workplaces reopened and people got lax, there were too many avenues for spread.

imgbin-transient-response-oscillation-da

 

I have a theory that the first wave in June had a lot of spread in minority communities and households, and the big holiday/winter wave went mainstream with white people. Based on some anecdotal evidence, some looking at data, and just some gut feeling. I'm sure at some point the data guys will give a better breakdown of each wave and we'll see if I'm right.

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I'm surprised case numbers are increasing. The virus didn't follow the attenuated sine wave that I predicted. The largest spike in cases wasn't the first outbreak back in March and the spikes didn't decrease at each succeeding outbreak from Labor Day/School start, Thanksgiving, and then Christmas/New Years. I thought the stupid people would catch it first and then after awhile there wouldn't be enough stupid people to spread it, but I guess once it got into schools and workplaces reopened and people got lax, there were too many avenues for spread.
imgbin-transient-response-oscillation-damping-ratio-damped-sine-wave-wave-ZfN0zQm6195Qct4f2YD4y2RTV.jpg

Could the new strains be increasing hold and starting to drive up the new case totals?
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19 minutes ago, texhorn said:


Could the new strains be increasing hold and starting to drive up the new case totals?

I would think that the Confirmed Case Rate is somewhat closer to Actual Case Rate than it was last March (though probably still undercounting 2-4x actual cases due to the asymptomatic or limited symptom cases that still seem to be a good number of them).  Our testing a year ago was non-existent so in those early days you had to be pretty damn sick to be compelled to get a test (or frankly to be allowed to receive one).  If we could go back with our testing now and apply it to last March (and even summer for that matter) the waves probably get somewhat closer.

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44 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

I would think that the Confirmed Case Rate is somewhat closer to Actual Case Rate than it was last March (though probably still undercounting 2-4x actual cases due to the asymptomatic or limited symptom cases that still seem to be a good number of them).  Our testing a year ago was non-existent so in those early days you had to be pretty damn sick to be compelled to get a test (or frankly to be allowed to receive one).  If we could go back with our testing now and apply it to last March (and even summer for that matter) the waves probably get somewhat closer.

Yeah, our avg daily testing numbers in April were 200k.  It was about mid June before we hit half a million per day. We are now doing about 1.75-2 million per day. There were a lot of positives out there that just weren’t recorded because they were less than severe. 

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Travis County still trying to break out of the peaks it has been in

66 admits today (down 18 from same day last week) - good news overall, still higher than you'd like but not in 80s like last Tuesday was

681 cases today - high but lower than last week Tuesday by 21, so while not a huge change here the admit drop bodes well.

One little anomaly I find weird is we have seen a jump in the <1 cohort. 17 cases the past two days is one of the highest two day runs we have had. Little weird blip.

Travis County also passed the 70k total case mark today landing at 70,089 as the new total case numbers. 656 deaths thus far (0.94% mortality rate)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/2 vs  vs 2/1 9 46 109 150 116 102 65 43 28 13 681
% of Daily Change 1.32% 6.75% 16.01% 22.03% 17.03% 14.98% 9.54% 6.31% 4.11% 1.91%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.91% 9.99% 26.02% 20.80% 15.04% 11.42% 6.74% 3.29% 2.20%  

 

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Mortality info for Travis County by age group. No deaths for those under 10 to 19 age range so I am not showing them.

Couple of takeaways: 82.62% of all deaths are 60 years old or higher (12.23% of cases)

Age group based Mortality rate has dropped in the >60 year old groups was roughly 5, 10, 20% for the three cohorts now it is roughly 3, 7, 15% so that is encouraging to see.

  10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80
Cumulative Share of Deaths 0.15% 0.76% 1.68% 3.66% 11.13% 22.56% 25.15% 34.91%
Cumulative Share of Cases 9.99% 26.02% 20.80% 15.04% 11.42% 6.74% 3.29% 2.20%
Mortality Rate 0.01% 0.03% 0.08% 0.23% 0.91% 3.13% 7.16% 14.83%
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542 cases today in Travis County (~100 less than last Wed) and 64 admits (down ~20 from last week)

Cases skew younger which is good from a mortality perspective. Seems like things are starting to work their ways back to a better level. Fingers crossed.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/3 vs  vs 2/2 5 43 63 110 108 91 57 37 17 11 542
% of Daily Change 0.92% 7.93% 11.62% 20.30% 19.93% 16.79% 10.52% 6.83% 3.14% 2.03%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.94% 10.01% 25.97% 20.79% 15.05% 11.41% 6.74% 3.29% 2.20%  
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More good news for Travis County in terms of cases - 533 today vs 707 last Thursday. All of the 60+ cohorts are below their pandemic to date share of cases so that is good to see as well. 65 admits vs 88 last Thursday. Glad to see some downward movement this week. We are by no means where we were pre-Thanksgiving but at least it looks like we have got back on the rails.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/3 vs  vs 2/2 3 20 64 126 120 81 63 31 15 10 533
% of Daily Change 0.56% 3.75% 12.01% 23.64% 22.51% 15.20% 11.82% 5.82% 2.81% 1.88%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.94% 10.02% 25.95% 20.81% 15.05% 11.42% 6.73% 3.29% 2.20%  
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262 cases in Travis County today continuing the week over week decline. The 7 day moving average has declined from 532 on 1/29 to 486 today.

There were 454 cases last Friday so again a nice drop for good 'ol Travis County. Admits at 60 which is 6 more than this day last week so that is not what I'd like to see. One other note that is not great today is that the 70 to 79 age group had over 2x more cases today as a share than their pandemic to date avg.

So bit of a good news/bad news day.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/4 vs  vs 2/3 0 23 42 44 49 39 23 18 20 4 262
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.78% 16.03% 16.79% 18.70% 14.89% 8.78% 6.87% 7.63% 1.53%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.95% 10.04% 25.92% 20.80% 15.05% 11.41% 6.73% 3.30% 2.20%  
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197 cases today in Travis County. First day <200 cases since 11/29/2020 so that is nice to see. On a % basis the 60 to 69 group are heavily weighted (albeit off smaller base)

There were 29 deaths this last week in Travis County as well stopping a prior 2 week trend of >30 deaths. 22 of the 29 deaths were 60+ (lower than the normal 82% share of deaths)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/4 vs  vs 2/3 1 10 22 42 41 32 24 18 4 3 197
% of Daily Change 0.51% 5.08% 11.17% 21.32% 20.81% 16.24% 12.18% 9.14% 2.03% 1.52%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.96% 10.05% 25.91% 20.80% 15.05% 11.41% 6.74% 3.30% 2.19%  
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208 cases today in Travis County and 42 admits. Moving in the right direction again. Let's keep it moving the right way kiddies.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/4 vs  vs 2/3 0 9 38 42 40 39 22 8 6 4 208
% of Daily Change 0.00% 4.33% 18.27% 20.19% 19.23% 18.75% 10.58% 3.85% 2.88% 1.92%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.96% 10.07% 25.89% 20.79% 15.06% 11.41% 6.73% 3.30% 2.19%  
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The positive momentum trend for Travis County continues with 448 cases today (down ~240 from last Monday). 44 admits (three days in a row in 40s (first time to have three days in a row in 40s or lower since Mid December))

All three 60+ groups below their normal contribution and in some cases well below

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/4 vs  vs 2/3 6 35 82 94 77 65 48 27 10 4 448
% of Daily Change 1.34% 7.81% 18.30% 20.98% 17.19% 14.51% 10.71% 6.03% 2.23% 0.89%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 3.98% 10.12% 25.86% 20.77% 15.06% 11.40% 6.72% 3.29% 2.19%  
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Continued good movement for Travis County. 346 cases today (down by ~340 from last week) and 52 admits (down 14 from last week)

Little higher than normal in the >60 cohorts but off smaller base of cases.

Travis moved to Stage 4 today so yet another good sign overall.

Let's keep it going

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/9 vs  vs 2/8 3 26 47 73 63 48 38 22 16 10 346
% of Daily Change 0.87% 7.51% 13.58% 21.10% 18.21% 13.87% 10.98% 6.36% 4.62% 2.89%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 4.00% 10.14% 25.84% 20.76% 15.06% 11.40% 6.72% 3.30% 2.19%  
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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Continued good movement for Travis County. 346 cases today (down by ~340 from last week) and 52 admits (down 14 from last week)

Little higher than normal in the >60 cohorts but off smaller base of cases.

Travis moved to Stage 4 today so yet another good sign overall.

Let's keep it going

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/9 vs  vs 2/8 3 26 47 73 63 48 38 22 16 10 346
% of Daily Change 0.87% 7.51% 13.58% 21.10% 18.21% 13.87% 10.98% 6.36% 4.62% 2.89%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 4.00% 10.14% 25.84% 20.76% 15.06% 11.40% 6.72% 3.30% 2.19%  

cases cut in half on a tues is good news.  tues was always the weekend make up day right?

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More positive mojo for Travis County. 347 cases today, down around 200 from last Wednesday. 43 admits today

Looking good in terms of age distribution today as well. 411 people in the hospital, down around 80 from last week this time. If trend continues we drop <400 tomorrow.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/10 vs 2/9 3 19 50 77 52 67 44 16 14 5 347
% of Daily Change 0.86% 5.48% 14.41% 22.19% 14.99% 19.31% 12.68% 4.61% 4.03% 1.44%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 4.01% 10.16% 25.82% 20.73% 15.08% 11.41% 6.71% 3.30% 2.19%  
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287 cases today in Travis County (down from 533 last Thursday). The 7 day moving avg for cases is <300 for the first time since 12/9. There were 50 admits today which is 15 less than last Thursday so another positive.

I am not thrilled about the 70 to 79 group being so much higher than normal but on this case load it's still better than it's been in prior weeks in terms of total numbers. Curious to see how "WInter-palooza" impacts case counts and admits over next 4-5 days.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/11 vs 2/10 2 19 47 66 49 41 27 14 17 5 287
% of Daily Change 0.70% 6.62% 16.38% 23.00% 17.07% 14.29% 9.41% 4.88% 5.92% 1.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 4.02% 10.18% 25.81% 20.72% 15.07% 11.40% 6.70% 3.31% 2.18%  
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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

287 cases today in Travis County (down from 533 last Thursday). The 7 day moving avg for cases is <300 for the first time since 12/9. There were 50 admits today which is 15 less than last Thursday so another positive.

I am not thrilled about the 70 to 79 group being so much higher than normal but on this case load it's still better than it's been in prior weeks in terms of total numbers. Curious to see how "WInter-palooza" impacts case counts and admits over next 4-5 days.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/11 vs 2/10 2 19 47 66 49 41 27 14 17 5 287
% of Daily Change 0.70% 6.62% 16.38% 23.00% 17.07% 14.29% 9.41% 4.88% 5.92% 1.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.60% 4.02% 10.18% 25.81% 20.72% 15.07% 11.40% 6.70% 3.31% 2.18%  

 

51 minutes ago, South Austin said:

The weather over the next several days might help with the downward trend.

Yep, I expect to see a big drop, especially in cases.  Not only will people be staying home (avoiding getting it) but ain't nobody going out to get tested in this shit.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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297 cases today for Travis County, slightly up from last Friday's 262. There were 49 admits today down 11 from 60 last week Friday. 372 people hospitalized. Hopefully this weather will keep people home for around 5 days and in effect hit the "reset button" from the holidays.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/12 vs 2/11 7 17 41 52 70 30 28 22 6 6 279
% of Daily Change 2.51% 6.09% 14.70% 18.64% 25.09% 10.75% 10.04% 7.89% 2.15% 2.15%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.02% 10.20% 25.78% 20.73% 15.06% 11.39% 6.71% 3.31% 2.18%  
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13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Super Bowl bump? 

Could be, that'll be interesting to see if it runs into weekend. I am not going to get too hung up on the slight bump as admits are still trending well as are hospitalizations.

If APH can ever get their shit together and get vaccines out things might be ok. I hope the majore pharmacies (HEB, CVS, Randalls) can just bypass our dipshit COA folks and get needles in arms quickly.

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