COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[fattyflattie 4639]

46 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

Turned back on in Texas.  A couple of CVS locations have appointments for J&J available tomorrow.

Thanks I’ll check Houston area when I get back next week. 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

151 cases in Travis County today with 12 admits and 131 hospitalized. Travis Co updated deaths for w/e 4/24 as well. There were 5. These came from

50 to 59 (2)

60 69 (2)

70 to 79 (1)

Three of the prior four weeks have been single digit deaths so this is a promising trend.

In terms of the 151 cases today they break out as follows:

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 4/27 vs 4/26	2	5	23	30	38	26	12	10	4	1	151
% of Daily Change	1.32%	3.31%	15.23%	19.87%	25.17%	17.22%	7.95%	6.62%	2.65%	0.66%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.22%	10.50%	25.96%	20.65%	14.89%	11.27%	6.57%	3.22%	2.09%

[Anastasis 23463]

Case numbers bad, admit numbers ok, young folks get your fucking vax. Does that about sum it up?

[Anastasis 23463]

On 4/26/2021 at 1:31 PM, Captainant said:

The problem with a large (read: >30%) chunk of unvaccinated people is that it gives COVID enough breathing room and space to stick around and potentially mutate and generally remain a nuisance, rather than getting stamped out all the way. If it sticks around longer, and has a bigger population to mutate in, then we're necessarily going to have a greater risk of it fucking our shit up again.

Our case rates are trending the right direction.  A situation like India with high and increasing case rates and very mild vax pressure is the real risk at this point for a breakout, but the vaccines appear pretty effective again variants generally. We need higher vax rates to really buffer, battles by the ones domestically at this point.  I don't know what you do about India at this point, that shit is going to burn through them, and scaling vax delivery to a country with their population levels and healthcare infrastructure is...a big fucking hurdle.   

[CooterBrown 18004]

Same or worse here. But my take is: once everyone who wants a shot has gotten it we’re done. Open back up fully. If dumbasses want to remain vulnerable then fine. Let them all give it to each other. Their kids are fortunately not really at risk.

Thin the herd.

Yep. I’m also okay with insurance being able to deny coverage for COVID if you haven’t been vaccinated by a certain date. You want your freedom? Have it with a nice heaping serving of medical debt/bankruptcy.

[Blackcat00 759]

Just recovered. Wife was exposed at work now that they are back in the office. Our age bracket is 30-39 (Travis County)

We had a Austin Public Health specialist call us so I am taking it we had the variant. 

She slept for three days and had a cough.

I had the shits, tight chest and a mild cough. 

Ready to enjoy our summer now. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Blackcat00

[Pig Bellmont 8712]

On 4/22/2021 at 12:27 PM, utee94 said:

 

There are two paths to herd immunity-- vaccination, or infection.  Those that eschew the former are tacitly choosing the latter.

But one way or the other, we'll get to herd immunity.

 

 

You know what happens when the virus runs wild? Mutations. So you’re not going to get herd immunity, but you will get ineffective vaccines. 

[markstanco 12572]

Yep. I’m also okay with insurance being able to deny coverage for COVID if you haven’t been vaccinated by a certain date. You want your freedom? Have it with a nice heaping serving of medical debt/bankruptcy.

That would never be how it works but I see your point. Like having life insurance and they know you ride a motorcycle but won't cover it in a motorcycle accident.

[markstanco 12572]

You know what happens when the virus runs wild? Mutations. So you’re not going to get herd immunity, but you will get ineffective vaccines. 

You need to get laid. Go up the wooden stairs, open the door, and get some fresh air.

[Brisketexan 105079]

You can't make a Rundberg HEB employee take the risk of being shot while standing out on that corner. 

Perfectly fine area in the daytime. Great grub in the area, too.

[Pig Bellmont 8712]

Get. Your. Shots.

[The Dog 44019]

37 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Get. Your. Shots.

We also should see another big spike in demand once the vaccines are approved for those in the age 12-16 demographic. There always seems to be a big spike in demand once the vaccines are opened up to a larger group. 

And this:

Quote

“We used to talk about communities of color being hesitant. But in that case, it's more barriers, it's just harder for them to get to the place to be vaccinated.”

Concerns me a lot more than this:

Quote

Troisi said Republicans consistently show lower intention to get the vaccine than Democrats and independents in Texas, according to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune survey.

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

95 cases in Travis County today with 27 admits and 137 hospitalized. Cases skewing younger and no cases in the 70+ groups.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 4/28 vs 4/27	1	6	10	28	17	11	18	4	0	0	95
% of Daily Change	1.05%	6.32%	10.53%	29.47%	17.89%	11.58%	18.95%	4.21%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.22%	10.50%	25.97%	20.65%	14.89%	11.28%	6.57%	3.22%	2.09%

[dcar00 14158]

interesting trend.  over the last month about 3000 cases a day in Texas and about 70 deaths.   gives a CCFR of approx .023. 

the CCFR has actually risen from 1.5% to 1.7% over the last 3 months.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Sorry for delay. I had my first in person meeting in 14 months up in Dallas yesterday so was out of pocket all day until late last night.

105 cases in Travis County yesterday with 129 hospitalized and 16 admits.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 4/29 vs 4/28	1	5	14	26	29	16	8	5	0	1	105
% of Daily Change	0.95%	4.76%	13.33%	24.76%	27.62%	15.24%	7.62%	4.76%	0.00%	0.95%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.22%	10.50%	25.97%	20.66%	14.89%	11.28%	6.57%	3.22%	2.09%

[HouTex 1866]

interesting trend.  over the last month about 3000 cases a day in Texas and about 70 deaths.   gives a CCFR of approx .023. 
the CCFR has actually risen from 1.5% to 1.7% over the last 3 months.

Many of those deaths could be from several months ago. I follow the daily reported cases at KHOU.com and for Houston you can hover your mouse over each reported death and the details pop up (age, race, co-morbidity, actual date of death). There is at least a two week delay in the actual date of death and more often the actual date of death is from 2-5 months earlier than the date the death is reported. Today, for example, only four of the reported deaths actually occurred in April 2021 and one person actually died last December.

[Neonmoon 38129]

52 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Sorry for delay. I had my first in person meeting in 14 months up in Dallas yesterday so was out of pocket all day until late last night.

105 cases in Travis County yesterday with 129 hospitalized and 16 admits.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 4/29 vs 4/28	1	5	14	26	29	16	8	5	0	1	105
% of Daily Change	0.95%	4.76%	13.33%	24.76%	27.62%	15.24%	7.62%	4.76%	0.00%	0.95%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.22%	10.50%	25.97%	20.66%	14.89%	11.28%	6.57%	3.22%	2.09%

That’s trending better. Get your shots. Shots. Shots. Shots. 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

That’s trending better. Get your shots. Shots. Shots. Shots. 

It is encouraging to see how the cases in the 60+ groups have been well below their pandemic to date share. This will help reduce deaths as well down the line (already showing in fact that 3 of last 4 weeks have been single digits)

[gmr548 16576]

interesting trend.  over the last month about 3000 cases a day in Texas and about 70 deaths.   gives a CCFR of approx .023. 
the CCFR has actually risen from 1.5% to 1.7% over the last 3 months.

Many of those deaths could be from several months ago. I follow the daily reported cases at KHOU.com and for Houston you can hover your mouse over each reported death and the details pop up (age, race, co-morbidity, actual date of death). There is at least a two week delay in the actual date of death and more often the actual date of death is from 2-5 months earlier than the date the death is reported. Today, for example, only four of the reported deaths actually occurred in April 2021 and one person actually died last December.

B117 is known to be more lethal. It makes sense that you’d see a small uptick as it’s become the dominant strain.

[babysdaddy 2721]

40 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

B117 is known to be more lethal. It makes sense that you’d see a small uptick as it’s become the dominant strain.

 

 

1 hour ago, HouTex said:

Many of those deaths could be from several months ago. I follow the daily reported cases at KHOU.com and for Houston you can hover your mouse over each reported death and the details pop up (age, race, co-morbidity, actual date of death). There is at least a two week delay in the actual date of death and more often the actual date of death is from 2-5 months earlier than the date the death is reported. Today, for example, only four of the reported deaths actually occurred in April 2021 and one person actually died last December.

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2021/04/dallas-county-texas-dshs-covid19-death-data-varied/

[HouTex 1866]

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2021/04/dallas-county-texas-dshs-covid19-death-data-varied/

That’s why I watch SETRAC.org’s hospitalization numbers on a daily basis. It’s more real time. The hospitals in the 8.5 million person SE Texas region have been showing significantly improving numbers since January. Today’s ICU bed numbers are the lowest since early November and general bed usage is the lowest since mid November.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

82 cases yesterday for Travis County with 23 admits and 133 hospitalized.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 4/30 vs 4/29	1	9	16	22	9	11	8	3	2	1	82
% of Daily Change	1.22%	10.98%	19.51%	26.83%	10.98%	13.41%	9.76%	3.66%	2.44%	1.22%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.28%	6.57%	3.21%	2.09%

[Snake Diggity 4620]

I did not think we would still be seeing two dozen people admitted to the hospital with covid every day by the end of April.  That’s been disappointing.  I am still hopeful that will be in the single digits by Memorial Day (with total hospitalized <100), but I’m less confident than I was.  I suppose it doesn’t matter since for all intents and purposes things are back to “normal”.  People (vaccinated or not) are just doing what they want.  I am still pretty confident there will not be another significant wave in Austin and we won’t see any increased restrictions.

 

I still don’t understand the lack of proactive measures to decrease vaccine hesitancy and increase test/trace for new cases.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[Anastasis 23463]

Yeah, that admit number fucking sucks. 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

I can’t help but wonder if it’s an abundance of caution leading to the admits. Vents/ICU are way down. This may be case where people who were being sent home due to lack of bandwidth are now being handled in place at the hospital. This should help continue to reduce deaths. We shall see. 

[Brisketexan 105079]

I can’t help but wonder if it’s an abundance of caution leading to the admits. Vents/ICU are way down. This may be case where people who were being sent home due to lack of bandwidth are now being handled in place at the hospital. This should help continue to reduce deaths. We shall see. 

Yeah....ICU numbers is something I’d like to see.

[Message Board User 12395]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....ICU numbers is something I’d like to see.

It's all right here - statewide daily cases, hospitalizations, and ICU.

Texas COVID-19 Hospital Resource Usage (csullender.com)

 

[bschoolprof 6252]

Austin ICU numbers starting to tick up.  Not great, Bob.  

[HouTex 1866]

The area covered by SETRAC (25 counties, 9.3 million people-my earlier 8.5 million number was a little low) has 291 confirmed and suspected Covid cases in the ICU. Lowest amount since November 7.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

63 cases today in Travis County with 17 admits and 128 hospitalized. 43 ICU (down 3 day over day) & 25 Vent (down 2)

Deaths updated today as well with 9 for the w/e 5/1. This is fourth out of five weeks remaining in single digits. Deaths were spread as follows:

30 to 39 (1), 40 to 49 (1), 60 to 69 (3), 70 to 79 (3), 80+ (1)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/1 vs 4/30	0	3	9	17	12	9	11	1	1	0	63
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.76%	14.29%	26.98%	19.05%	14.29%	17.46%	1.59%	1.59%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.28%	6.56%	3.21%	2.09%

[Neonmoon 38129]

Seems like cases are going down, which will decrease the other numbers in a week or two 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

On 5/1/2021 at 9:53 AM, BrazilHorn said:

I can’t help but wonder if it’s an abundance of caution leading to the admits. Vents/ICU are way down. This may be case where people who were being sent home due to lack of bandwidth are now being handled in place at the hospital. This should help continue to reduce deaths. We shall see. 

This link shows a recent uptick in vents and ICU: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/1402b112995148058174b309e7e3e2aa

[Snake Diggity 4620]

15 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Seems like cases are going down, which will decrease the other numbers in a week or two 

That’s what’s weird to me is that case numbers have been down for a long time.  Hospital admissions relative to trailing case numbers are very high (I think north of 20%).  
 

Brazil may be right in that admits are reflective of hospitals being more cautious and havin more space, but my worry is the variants are putting more young people in the hospital.

[VolenteHawk 495]

18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

That’s what’s weird to me is that case numbers have been down for a long time.  Hospital admissions relative to trailing case numbers are very high (I think north of 20%).  
 

Brazil may be right in that admits are reflective of hospitals being more cautious and havin more space, but my worry is the variants are putting more young people in the hospital.

Death counts will eventually give us the answer. We haven’t seen lots of variant spread in Texas (that I know of), but I don’t know how hard we’re looking for them.

[Armybrat 40824]

It’ll be no surprise to see a weird variant erupt in College Station.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

There already was that one at aggy where only one person had a very mild case of a variant that aggy said was more transmissible and would cause more serious illness, so...

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

12 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

It’ll be no surprise to see anothet weird variant erupt in College Station.

 

[Armybrat 40824]

33 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

There already was that one at aggy where only one person had a very mild case of a variant that aggy said was more transmissible and would cause more serious illness, so...

Only cured by grabbing one’s nuts while banging a sheep?

[InkaUtexas 25874]

13 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Only cured by grabbing one’s nuts while banging a sheep?

nah, this is a variant, so gotta let the sheep bang you. 

[kevwun 15766]

It's not bestiality if the sheep molests you.

Edited May 2, 2021 by kevwun

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Great Sunday for Travis County. Only 46 cases, 115 hospitalized & 12 admits.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/1 vs 4/30	0	4	4	17	10	7	2	2	0	0	46
% of Daily Change	0.00%	8.70%	8.70%	36.96%	21.74%	15.22%	4.35%	4.35%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.28%	6.56%	3.21%	2.08%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

 My kids baseball team clinched regular season LL championship tonight and Travis County had another good day.

78 cases, 11 admits & 115 hospitalized. (44 ICU & 23 Vent). Tough to read too much into age groupings as law of small numbers at play here.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/1 vs 4/30	1	5	11	9	16	13	12	6	1	4	78
% of Daily Change	1.28%	6.41%	14.10%	11.54%	20.51%	16.67%	15.38%	7.69%	1.28%	5.13%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.96%	20.65%	14.89%	11.28%	6.56%	3.21%	2.09%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Another great day for Travis Co and on a Tuesday true up day no less. 40 cases, 13 admits and 112 people hospitalized. (46 ICU & 24 Vent).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/4 vs 5/3	0	3	4	8	8	6	5	4	0	2	40
% of Daily Change	0.00%	7.50%	10.00%	20.00%	20.00%	15.00%	12.50%	10.00%	0.00%	5.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.96%	20.65%	14.89%	11.28%	6.56%	3.21%	2.09%

[MissingInAction 25019]

On 5/2/2021 at 11:42 AM, InkaUtexas said:

nah, this is a variant, so gotta let the sheep bang you. 

How does one become so learned in sheep law?

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

18 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

How does one become so learned in sheep law?

Degree in animal husbandry

[MissingInAction 25019]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Degree in animal husbandry

Is that aggy for pre law?

[InkaUtexas 25874]

12 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Is that aggy for pre law?

and pre-med. 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

13 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another great day for Travis Co and on a Tuesday true up day no less. 40 cases, 13 admits and 112 people hospitalized. (46 ICU & 24 Vent).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/4 vs 5/3	0	3	4	8	8	6	5	4	0	2	40
% of Daily Change	0.00%	7.50%	10.00%	20.00%	20.00%	15.00%	12.50%	10.00%	0.00%	5.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.51%	25.96%	20.65%	14.89%	11.28%	6.56%	3.21%	2.09%

40 cases?!?!  Hell yes.  If we don’t start seeing a string of single digits admit days within 2 weeks, something is wonky.

Edited May 5, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[BrazilHorn 6586]

92 cases in Travis County with 19 admits and 111 hospitalized. (45 ICU & 26 vents). Like seeing the days <100 in terms of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/5 vs 5/4	0	2	12	32	24	9	9	4	0	0	92
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.17%	13.04%	34.78%	26.09%	9.78%	9.78%	4.35%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.28%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

[Snake Diggity 4620]

12 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

92 cases in Travis County with 19 admits and 111 hospitalized. (45 ICU & 26 vents). Like seeing the days <100 in terms of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/5 vs 5/4	0	2	12	32	24	9	9	4	0	0	92
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.17%	13.04%	34.78%	26.09%	9.78%	9.78%	4.35%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.23%	10.52%	25.97%	20.65%	14.88%	11.28%	6.56%	3.20%	2.09%

Based on hospitalization rates of the various age groups, from that group of 92 cases, we would expect about 3 admits.  And that’s been the rough number and distribution for a few weeks now, which is why I’m confused as to why we are still seeing 15-20 admits every day.  Hell, from the previous day’s 40 cases, we should expect only 1 admit based on the age distribution.

Either the variant is hospitalizing younger people at a MUCH higher rate than before, or the data is wonky.  Because it’s not that people aren’t getting tested until they are very sick because the positivity rate has stayed low (~4%).

Edited May 6, 2021 by Snake Diggity