COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Hate 20107]

Ok.  Maybe outraged may have been harsh. So you just want to be pissed at Abbott?

[Snake Diggity 4620]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Ok.  Maybe outraged may have been harsh. So you just want to be pissed at Abbott?

No.  I’m not pissed about anything.  I’m not even annoyed at Abbott.  His words and actions are extremely predictable for a politician in his party these days.  I was only responding to people in this thread defending his handling of the pandemic and specifically the nonsensical tweet he sent out where he vaguely talks shit to people who condemned him opening the state when only 7% of the population had been vaccinated.

 

I actually went back just now and scanned through all of his tweets back to the first of the year.  Prior to opening up in March he NEVER mentioned the vaccinated %.  He only spoke in whole numbers.  Also, he never encouraged people to get vaccinated.  In fact he did the opposite, as a recurring theme in his tweets related to the covid vaccinations is “always voluntary”, meaning “don’t get it if you don’t want to”.

 

He caved to political pressure and gambled that there wouldn’t be a wave prior to getting proper number of people vaccinated.  He got lucky.  If there was actual logic for opening up based on consensus expert opinion, he didn’t provide it.

[Hate 20107]

https://abc13.com/gov-abbott-greg-texas-governor-covid-19/8976979/

 

"There was a report that came out recently that showed more than half of Texans were unwilling or unsure about taking the vaccine," Abbott said. "It's very important for leaders like governors to step up and get the vaccine to show that this is a very safe and very easy process."

 

Abbott got the shot back in December.  Would you like him to say it's mandatory?  I'm pretty sure he can't say that as the governor. 

And for the record, I'm not picking on you.  It just seems like you've got an axe to grind with Abbott despite evidence that you think isn't necessarily true.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Hate

[BrazilHorn 6586]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Pitcher of beer at the Posse East. 

done. I can damn near walk there.

[Snake Diggity 4620]

11 minutes ago, Hate said:

https://abc13.com/gov-abbott-greg-texas-governor-covid-19/8976979/

 

"There was a report that came out recently that showed more than half of Texans were unwilling or unsure about taking the vaccine," Abbott said. "It's very important for leaders like governors to step up and get the vaccine to show that this is a very safe and very easy process."

 

Abbott got the shot back in December.  Would you like him to say it's mandatory?  I'm pretty sure he can't say that as the governor. 

And for the record, I'm not picking on you.  It just seems like you've got an axe to grind with Abbott despite evidence that we you think isn't necessarily true.

It’s all good.

 

But my comment was “did I miss Abbott’s tweets encouraging getting vaccinated or talking about % of vaccination as his reason for opening up?”, and there’s no tweet from Abbott encouraging people to get vaccinated. There’s also no tweet about vaccinated % from around the time he was making the decision to open up.  So while “there’s evidence” (whatever that means), my comment was pretty much accurate.  If you wanna play gotcha, ok, Abbott said on tv he got it to show it’s safe.  But that really doesn’t detract from my point.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[BrazilHorn 6586]

99 cases today in Travis County, 109 hospitalized with 21 admits. I really cannot figure out the admits. For the first 10 odd months admits were ~15% of cases fairly predictably. Now It is running a lot higher.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/10 vs 5/9	1	11	16	25	11	19	5	7	3	1	99
% of Daily Change	1.01%	11.11%	16.16%	25.25%	11.11%	19.19%	5.05%	7.07%	3.03%	1.01%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.26%	10.53%	25.97%	20.64%	14.88%	11.27%	6.56%	3.20%	2.08%

[dcar00 14158]

46 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

99 cases today in Travis County, 109 hospitalized with 21 admits. I really cannot figure out the admits. For the first 10 odd months admits were ~15% of cases fairly predictably. Now It is running a lot higher.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/10 vs 5/9	1	11	16	25	11	19	5	7	3	1	99
% of Daily Change	1.01%	11.11%	16.16%	25.25%	11.11%	19.19%	5.05%	7.07%	3.03%	1.01%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.26%	10.53%	25.97%	20.64%	14.88%	11.27%	6.56%	3.20%	2.08%

that would be interesting to see cases to admits percentage over time, maybe add deaths too.

[CycleTex87 2967]

At some point we’re all going to stop paying attention to these new cases / hospitalization #’s, right?  They’ll just carry on at about the same level as long as the vaccination % is less that say 75 or 80%, and nobody will care anymore.  Any odds on the highest vaccination % achieved in Texas by say, Labor Day?

and then we’re done with all this BS.

[Hate 20107]

I'll go with slightly over half with another 25-30% having anti-bodies from having been infected.  Hopefully, the natural immunity lasts long enough...probably not though.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

33 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

At some point we’re all going to stop paying attention to these new cases / hospitalization #’s, right?  They’ll just carry on at about the same level as long as the vaccination % is less that say 75 or 80%, and nobody will care anymore.  Any odds on the highest vaccination % achieved in Texas by say, Labor Day?

and then we’re done with all this BS.

I think it's going to keep going down ... but it could be going down faster.

Even with the slowing vaccine numbers, more people are getting vaccinated each day than are getting covid.  Right now the 7 day average vaccinations for Texas is 45k and the 7 day average COVID cases is 1300.  Even if we are only finding 1/4th of the covid cases out there, vaccines are winning new customers much faster than COVID is.

As long as those ratios hold, eventually it will die away ...

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

Isn’t texas a super young state?  Like a shot load of our people under 18 and even more under 35 or so?  To the point where if we vaccinate 50+ percent of the state and most of the holdouts are young/non high risk we should be more or less good to go?

i mean- I can’t conceive of any reason why a person wouldn’t get this vaccine and think it’s just absurd, and I’m past the point in about a month of giving a shit about any death that happens bc it was ENTIRELY preventable, but from a FAFO perspective on the timeline we are on right now we are probably more or less ok, right? 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

7 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

At some point we’re all going to stop paying attention to these new cases / hospitalization #’s, right?  They’ll just carry on at about the same level as long as the vaccination % is less that say 75 or 80%, and nobody will care anymore.  Any odds on the highest vaccination % achieved in Texas by say, Labor Day?

and then we’re done with all this BS.

My guess is ~60% of Texans are vaccinated by July 4th, which assuming natural immunity lasts more than a few months should be enough to kill it given >30% of the remaining 40% will have gotten infected by then.

As much as the numbers have plateaued, I still expect to see a continued drop, especially in hospitalizations.  I expect we will see regular single digit daily admits in Austin by Memorial Day.

But I agree, there may be no meaningful difference from here on out in terms of how it affects government restrictions or societal behavior.  From that perspective, it is pretty obvious the pandemic is “over” in the US.

[idigTexas 2284]

10 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

99 cases today in Travis County, 109 hospitalized with 21 admits. I really cannot figure out the admits. For the first 10 odd months admits were ~15% of cases fairly predictably. Now It is running a lot higher.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/10 vs 5/9	1	11	16	25	11	19	5	7	3	1	99
% of Daily Change	1.01%	11.11%	16.16%	25.25%	11.11%	19.19%	5.05%	7.07%	3.03%	1.01%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.26%	10.53%	25.97%	20.64%	14.88%	11.27%	6.56%	3.20%	2.08%

Hospitalization rates for minorities is higher.  Maybe we are seeing the results of fewer minorities getting vaccinated? 

[Message Board User 12395]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

From that perspective, it is pretty obvious the pandemic is “over” in the US.

It’s over except for those who don’t want it to be over.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Message Board User

[Snake Diggity 4620]

6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

It’s over except for those who don’t want it to be over.

This is such a shitty, wrong comment.

 

Pandemic ain’t over for the 100 people getting sick every day, or the 10-20 people getting put in the hospital every day.  And that is just in Austin.

[Anastasis 23463]

 

 

11 hours ago, dcar00 said:

that would be interesting to see cases to admits percentage over time, maybe add deaths too.

 

And length of stay.  Seems like there is a pretty large daily turnover. 

[Armybrat 40824]

31 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

 

And length of stay.  Seems like there is a pretty large daily turnover. 

That may be due to the food.

[South Austin 52456]

20 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

That may be due to the food.

Yea, but you also get banged by the hot candy stripers.  Saw it in a movie once. 

[InkaUtexas 25874]

13 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

done. I can damn near walk there.

Pick a day brother. Podemos falar. 

[Viper 12104]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

My guess is ~60% of Texans are vaccinated by July 4th, which assuming natural immunity lasts more than a few months should be enough to kill it given >30% of the remaining 40% will have gotten infected by then.

As much as the numbers have plateaued, I still expect to see a continued drop, especially in hospitalizations.  I expect we will see regular single digit daily admits in Austin by Memorial Day.

But I agree, there may be no meaningful difference from here on out in terms of how it affects government restrictions or societal behavior.  From that perspective, it is pretty obvious the pandemic is “over” in the US.

 

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

It’s over except for those who don’t want it to be over.

I'll have you know that Harris County is still at Covid threat level Red and will be for the foreseeable future until more vaccinated people get tested for covid.

[Message Board User 12395]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

This is such a shitty, wrong comment.

 

Pandemic ain’t over for the 100 people getting sick every day, or the 10-20 people getting put in the hospital every day.  And that is just in Austin.

So it’s over when cases and hospitalizations drop to zero?

[Neonmoon 38129]

We have tons of vaccine supply. Anyone 12 and up can get it. If you’re not vaccinated by July or August, you’re probably never going to be because science is scary. Mask indoors will be dropped soon. End of a may? June? Well, it’s up to each business. Maybe they will wait for CDC so they are protected legally. 

[HouTex 1866]

I'll have you know that Harris County is still at Covid threat level Red and will be for the foreseeable future until more vaccinated people get tested for covid.

Can’t tell if you are serious. Harris County has almost 4.8 million people. There are only 195 people with or suspected with covid in ICU throughout the county and 527 in general beds. Those numbers have been continually dropping since January. The only people who actually believe in the red level threat are Lina and a few useful idiots.

[bschoolprof 6252]

56 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Can’t tell if you are serious. Harris County has almost 4.8 million people. There are only 195 people with or suspected with covid in ICU throughout the county and 527 in general beds. Those numbers have been continually dropping since January. The only people who actually believe in the red level threat are Lina and a few useful idiots.

check your meter bro.  

[Snake Diggity 4620]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

So it’s over when cases and hospitalizations drop to zero?

At least locally, there has long been an established hierarchy of stages based on 7 day average of daily hospital admissions.  We are currently on the border between stage 3 and stage 2 with an average of ~15.  Stage 1 would be a 7 days average <5 daily hospital admissions.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/1402b112995148058174b309e7e3e2aa

Thats what our local officials established based on expert opinions.  Of course anyone can argue those thresholds are too high, but most of the experts on the matter would disagree.  And as for my personal non-expert opinion, I think the threshold should be zero (at least locally), because all it would take to get there is enough people being willing to take 15 min to get the vaccine and a robust test/trace initiative between now and July 4th.  But that’s not realistic due to politics and the idiots that drive them.

ETA: to be clear, I don’t think acknowledging that the pandemic is not yet over necessarily means imposing meaningful restrictions on folks.  I am mainly pointing out that the pandemic is in fact not over, and that there should be nuance in accounting for that.  At stage 2 we should essentially be operating as normal, with the possible exception of an indoor mask mandate and heavy test&trace/vaccination effort.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Snake Diggity

[BrazilHorn 6586]

13 hours ago, dcar00 said:

that would be interesting to see cases to admits percentage over time, maybe add deaths too.

Here is admits to cases. Starting from April 1st last year to May 10. Chart aggregates X-axis as it would just be too busy at bottom. We are on the upswing but still overall in the low 15% of overall cases have resulted in admits

In terms of deaths, the last update for mortality on the Travis County site was for w/e May 8th. There have been as of that date 859 deaths against 82,882 cases so a 1.04% mortality rate. I have been tracking mortality rate since July and the peak mortality rate was in Mid October when it was 1.46% on a cumulative basis. We are actually on a slight uptick as you can see in chart below from our lows of >1% in January/February. I wasn't able to always get label to line up perfectly between cases and the date TCAD releases mortality rate, but it is very close.

 

[Anastasis 23463]

Most interesting thing in those charts to me is the CFR.  Would be hoping that continues to drop with the growing shift towards younger cases.  Would be interesting to plot % of cases in <40 year olds on a second axis. 

[XYZ 2154]

There’s a paper published in The Lancet in which they researched the asthma medicine budesonide on early covid cases. The principal outcome that they measured was what percentage of early diagnoses ended up in the hospital. Control group was whatever the fuck they tell you to do when you get a positive test, probably sit at home in isolation with your thumb up your ass until you feel like you are gonna die, then come to the hospital. Group 2 was same recommendations plus 1600 ug of inhaled budesonide per day. Long story short, 15% of group 1 cases ended up in the hospital while 1% of group did the same. 15% versus 1%. Why the fuck hasn’t this medication been used on every case that is caught early? (You have to start early, before the virus fucks up your lungs).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00160-0/fulltext

[gmr548 16576]

There’s a paper published in The Lancet in which they researched the asthma medicine budesonide on early covid cases. The principal outcome that they measured was what percentage of early diagnoses ended up in the hospital. Control group was whatever the fuck they tell you to do when you get a positive test, probably sit at home in isolation with your thumb up your ass until you feel like you are gonna die, then come to the hospital. Group 2 was same recommendations plus 1600 ug of inhaled budesonide per day. Long story short, 15% of group 1 cases ended up in the hospital while 1% of group did the same. 15% versus 1%. Why the fuck hasn’t this medication been used on every case that is caught early? (You have to start early, before the virus fucks up your lungs).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00160-0/fulltext

Supply I’d imagine? I’d also guess a lot of hospitalizations are the result of cases that aren’t caught early.

Or maybe group 2 had better thumbs.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Most interesting thing in those charts to me is the CFR.  Would be hoping that continues to drop with the growing shift towards younger cases.  Would be interesting to plot % of cases in <40 year olds on a second axis. 

I didn't re-chart it but just did chart of cases <40. Not a huge change. Was 59.67% Aug 1st is 61.97% May 1st. So it is going up and going up off a bigger number of cases so that isn't nothing but it has been in the 61% range since Dec 1st.

[dcar00 14158]

6 hours ago, Message Board User said:

So it’s over when cases and hospitalizations drop to zero?

 

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

6 hours ago, HouTex said:

Can’t tell if you are serious. Harris County has almost 4.8 million people. There are only 195 people with or suspected with covid in ICU throughout the county and 527 in general beds. Those numbers have been continually dropping since January. The only people who actually believe in the red level threat are Lina and a few useful idiots.

That’s his point dude- your last sentence. 
Also, as a hint... Lina doesn’t really believe it’s a red level threat anymore. 
People are going to die. Mostly stupid people that FAFO. That’s not a crisis. That’s life. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[mchookem 16322]

i bought movie tickets and concert tickets today, and it felt damn good. i almost cried. 

get vaccinated people!

[Anastasis 23463]

60 new cases in ATX

Winning!

20 new admits

We suck again. 

[Heme Doc 417]

10 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

This is such a shitty, wrong comment.

 

Pandemic ain’t over for the 100 people getting sick every day, or the 10-20 people getting put in the hospital every day.  And that is just in Austin.

I think it’s a pretty fair comment.  Those getting sick and hospitalized are primarily the unvaccinated.  Most of them could have gotten a vaccine by now.  I drive by 3 places on my 10 minute drive in to work that advertise that they have free vaccines.  I tell my immune competent vaccinated patients that their personal pandemic is over.  If you want it to be over...get vaccinated .  

[BrazilHorn 6586]

62 cases today in Travis County with 20 admits and 101 hospitalized.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/11 vs 5/10	0	3	9	22	13	7	5	0	2	1	62
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.84%	14.52%	35.48%	20.97%	11.29%	8.06%	0.00%	3.23%	1.61%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.26%	10.53%	25.98%	20.64%	14.88%	11.26%	6.55%	3.20%	2.08%

[utee94 15808]

2 hours ago, Heme Doc said:

I think it’s a pretty fair comment.  Those getting sick and hospitalized are primarily the unvaccinated.  Most of them could have gotten a vaccine by now.  I drive by 3 places on my 10 minute drive in to work that advertise that they have free vaccines.  I tell my immune competent vaccinated patients that their personal pandemic is over.  If you want it to be over...get vaccinated .  

One shot, sure.  Fully vaccinated?  No.  Not sure why so many people think this is the case.  

For people that are under age 50 and didn't lie to jump the line, we're just now in the range of "about to get our second shot."  My second Moderna will be on Monday 5/17.  And then there's the two weeks after that...

Mid June. That's your cutoff for "anyone in Texas that wanted a shot and wasn't eligible until 3/29, should be fully vaccinated."

We're getting there, for sure, but we're not there yet.

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

9 minutes ago, utee94 said:

One shot, sure.  Fully vaccinated?  No.  Not sure why so many people think this is the case.  

For people that are under age 50 and didn't lie to jump the line, we're just now in the range of "about to get our second shot."  My second Moderna will be on Monday 5/17.  And then there's the two weeks after that...

Mid June. That's your cutoff for "anyone in Texas that wanted a shot and wasn't eligible until 3/29, should be fully vaccinated."

We're getting there, for sure, but we're not there yet.

If you’re that far out from your first shot then you have like a 60-80% immunity already.  It’s not 95 but it’s pretty substantial protection. 

[utee94 15808]

8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If you’re that far out from your first shot then you have like a 60-80% immunity already.  It’s not 95 but it’s pretty substantial protection. 

Right.  But it's still not fully vaccinated and just saying "fuck everyone they should be vaccinated by now" is bullshit.

Mid-June.  In Texas at least, THAT's the earliest you get to say fuck everyone.  Now, is not that time.

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by utee94

[Heme Doc 417]

52 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Right.  But it's still not fully vaccinated and just saying "fuck everyone they should be vaccinated by now" is bullshit.

Mid-June.  In Texas at least, THAT's the earliest you get to say fuck everyone.  Now, is not that time.

 

I’m fine with mid June

[Anastasis 23463]

July 4th has been my line in the sand.  But mid-late June I am going down to Port A and later taking the kids to JW in SA, so acceleration happening. 

[Snake Diggity 4620]

11 hours ago, Heme Doc said:

I think it’s a pretty fair comment.  Those getting sick and hospitalized are primarily the unvaccinated.  Most of them could have gotten a vaccine by now.  I drive by 3 places on my 10 minute drive in to work that advertise that they have free vaccines.  I tell my immune competent vaccinated patients that their personal pandemic is over.  If you want it to be over...get vaccinated .  

I didn’t interpret the comment to mean “everyone who wants the pandemic to end is getting vaccinated”.  If that was the point then I am in the wrong and shouldn’t have responded so harshly.

I interpreted the comment to mean “the pandemic is over and anyone still worried about it is doing so unnecessarily”, which would be wrong and shitty.

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I didn’t interpret the comment to mean “everyone who wants the pandemic to end is getting vaccinated”.  If that was the point then I am in the wrong and shouldn’t have responded so harshly.

I interpreted the comment to mean “the pandemic is over and anyone still worried about it is doing so unnecessarily”, which would be wrong and shitty.

Almost positive you are wrong and the meaning was the first rather than the second.

if I’m right and it’s the first it’s basically unarguable as a fairness issue and we should ignore all those left behind and not give a fuck, the only question is does that start Memorial Day, mid June or July 4th. 
Since the danger is to the unvaccinated and if your Vax isn’t quite at maximum percentage and you can be responsible for your own health outcomes I vote for right fucking now, but I won’t be flip out and lose my shit over things unless this thing cranks past July 4. 
 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[phdhorn 6224]

23 hours ago, Viper said:

 

I'll have you know that Harris County is still at Covid threat level Red and will be for the foreseeable future until more vaccinated people get tested for covid.

I.e., 

[Armybrat 40824]

Cross-posted from the other thread....

For the first time since February of last year, Mrs. Brat & I are going to meet our Happy Hour group of 8-10 people at an outdoor venue in north Austin. All are vaxxed and most likely will not be masked at the the table because they won’t be able to keep their yaps shut.

I dread what 15 months of pent up gossip & get off my lawn bitching is going to sound like. Please pray for me.

[utee94 15808]

38 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Cross-posted from the other thread....

For the first time since February of last year, Mrs. Brat & I are going to meet our Happy Hour group of 8-10 people at an outdoor venue in north Austin. All are vaxxed and most likely will not be masked at the the table because they won’t be able to keep their yaps shut.

I dread what 15 months of pent up gossip & get off my lawn bitching is going to sound like. Please pray for me.

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Another good day re: cases for Travis County with 83. 108 hospitalized and 17 admits

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 5/12 vs 5/11	1	7	18	21	15	8	6	3	3	1	83
% of Daily Change	1.20%	8.43%	21.69%	25.30%	18.07%	9.64%	7.23%	3.61%	3.61%	1.20%
% of Total Cases	0.62%	4.26%	10.54%	25.98%	20.64%	14.87%	11.26%	6.55%	3.20%	2.08%

[Neonmoon 38129]

When was our lowest case count? March 2020?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

When was our lowest case count? March 2020?

February 1980 had zero.  

[South Austin 52456]

59 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

February 1980 had zero.  

Only if you believe the government.