COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Skipper 6133]

2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

 

seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...

 

Have family in town that is a pediatrician in Minnesota. That is exactly what she is saying.  Seeing more RSV in summer than they almost ever do in winter.   Kids all getting together at camps, sports, or just otherwise with zero social distancing after a year of being exposed to almost nothing.  Pre-K could be a bitch this year.  Not only with actual threat of COVID and all the other kid diseases and probably an increased risk of getting actually sick, but with the COVID threat, another year of kids getting sent home with every sniffle.  Who knows how long it will be until things are truly "normal' again.

[Billy Pilgrim 1960]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Have family in town that is a pediatrician in Minnesota. That is exactly what she is saying.  Seeing more RSV in summer than they almost ever do in winter.   Kids all getting together at camps, sports, or just otherwise with zero social distancing after a year of being exposed to almost nothing.  Pre-K could be a bitch this year.  Not only with actual threat of COVID and all the other kid diseases and probably an increased risk of getting actually sick, but with the COVID threat, another year of kids getting sent home with every sniffle.  Who knows how long it will be until things are truly "normal' again.

Isn’t this kind of an argument for resuming normal life and acquiring herd immunity? Immunity now or immunity later?

I’m not saying either way (masking and distancing vs going back to normal) is correct I’m just saying that I can see the benefits of both.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Billy Pilgrim

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand commitments to friends like when you’re playing in a tournament but it’s a dickhead move to show up somewhere now when you’re feeling sick, even if you think it’s allergies. I understand it’s harder to transmit covid if you’re outside but not impossible.

It’s always been a dickhead move to show up somewhere when you’re feeling sick.

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2072]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Anyone got a take on this groups prior model performance?

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/dashboards/austin/

 

 

it's going to be somewhere between going steeply up and steeply down?  yeah, i'd say that's a pretty reliable model.

[gmr548 16576]

maybe (hopefully) they just have that other wicked rsv virus going around? my sister and her friend, both vaxed, got that and it kicked their asses for over a week. they both were convinced they had covid...but negative tests, friend officially diagnosed with rsv.
seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...
but it seems logical that once people were vaxed and things opened up and we started back to normal lives and socializing that the normal bugs - colds, flu, stomach bugs, viruses, etc. - would have a field day. or is that not how that works?

I got sick twice within a month of emerging post vax (actually post first shot - had no choice as I had to travel to help with surgery for my mom). Covid negative both times. Just random shit I picked up. So anecdotally it worked this way for me.

[Skipper 6133]

56 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Isn’t this kind of an argument for resuming normal life and acquiring herd immunity? Immunity now or immunity later?

I’m not saying either way (masking and distancing vs going back to normal) is correct I’m just saying that I can see the benefits of both.

I don't disagree if you include vaccination as part of the solution.   The issue with older kids as well is that Delta is so damn contagious, even if the kids aren't at high risk of severe disease, the schools are certainly at high risk of major outbreaks shutting shit down.  So I can see the reasoning from that perspective if trying to have a relatively normal school year.  But my kids are still in Pre-K, no masks, so haven't given too much thought to that debate.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Skipper

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Yep, my cousin and 15 year old daughter both feeling miserable and went to ER.  Basically they said you have a relatively severe case but vitals/oxygen level still ok and what they are dealing with isn't out of ordinary.  Nothing you can do but continue monitoring oxygen, rest, try to make yourself eat/stay hydrated and ride it out.  

You didn't state their vaccine status, but I have to wonder how many people are reluctant to get the vaccine but then are quick to run to the ER. If needed, someone should definitely go to the ER but it's odd that someone would be completely open to experimental treatments but they don't want the "experimental" vaccine.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Skipper 6133]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You didn't state their vaccine status, but I have to wonder how many people are reluctant to get the vaccine but then are quick to run to the ER. If needed, someone should definitely go to the ER but it's odd that someone would be completely open to experimental treatments but they don't want the "experimental" vaccine.

I mentioned in this thread or another thread yesterday but they were unvaccinated.   I haven't discussed vaccines with them directly but it sounds more like they are the type that don't typically prioritize flu shots and based on anecdotal experiences among friends didn't think a big deal at their age and not some political stance (i.e., I'm confident they were not Trump voters). No doubt they regret that decision now after this has been kicking their ass. 

Per the state wide stats, there has been a material increase in first shots the last few weeks, likely people that fall into this category (i.e., not "against it" but either didn't prioritize it or didn't think really needed).  Too little too late for many but I'm hoping the combo of this rapid spread + increased vaccinations results in this current wave cresting soon.

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Vaccination rates by surrounding Counties amongst 12 years old + population (fully vaccinated rates). Basically Travis & Williamson are surrounded by pockets of stupid. This is why the ICUs are flooded and hospitalizations are through the rough.

Bastrop: 47.32%

Blanco: 48.07%

Burnet: 44.51%

Burleson: 41.38%

Caldwell: 44.18%

Gillespie: 48.81%

Hays: 54.99%

Kimble: 37.47%

Llano: 45.73%

Lampasas: 36.69%

Lee: 40.19%

Mason: 43.91%

Mccullough: 32.18%

San Saba: 29.93%

Travis: 63.49%

Washington: 44.92%

Williamson: 61.80%

 

Least surprising statistic in history. Called it months ago. Unvaccinated rural idiots would fill up our Austin/Williamson/hays hospitals. Just thought it would all start in mid to late September, not fucking July. 

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

San Saba golden armadillos clocking in at sub 30% vax rate.

[JimmyJames 12271]

6 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

San Saba golden armadillos clocking in at sub 30% vax rate.

Muh freedumbs!

[utee94 15812]

57 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Least surprising statistic in history. Called it months ago. Unvaccinated rural idiots would fill up our Austin/Williamson/hays hospitals. Just thought it would all start in mid to late September, not fucking July. 

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by utee94

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

But of those top 6 counties, Travis and Williamson make up 82% of the population of the combined counties. the smaller counties are overindexed by a fair amount in the hospitalization rate.

[dcbc 14471]

4 hours ago, mchookem said:

maybe (hopefully) they just have that other wicked rsv virus going around? my sister and her friend, both vaxed, got that and it kicked their asses for over a week. they both were convinced they had covid...but negative tests, friend officially diagnosed with rsv.

seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...

but it seems logical that once people were vaxed and things opened up and we started back to normal lives and socializing that the normal bugs - colds, flu, stomach bugs, viruses, etc. - would have a field day. or is that not how that works? 🤔

Coronavirus OC43 making the rounds as well.  Knocked a buddy of mine (vaxxed) down  for several days before he got a zpack.  He still has a persistent cough from it.  Tested for Covid.  Found out it was OC43 (Cold)

Edited August 4, 2021 by dcbc

[utee94 15812]

 

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

But of those top 6 counties, Travis and Williamson make up 82% of the population of the combined counties. the smaller counties are overindexed by a fair amount in the hospitalization rate.

18% of the population and 26% of admits doesn't indicate to me that "unvaccinated rural idiots are filling up our hospitals."  We have plenty of unvaccinated urban idiots that are filling up those hospital beds. 

The outlying counties are certainly somewhat  over-represented, but they also don't have the same resources available to them within their own communities, and it's standard procedure for them to lean on the larger and better hospitals in Travis County, during medical emergencies.  That's the way the system is designed to work.  

 

[Anastasis 23469]

Another one from the APH deck, showing hospitalization trends by age group over last couple weeks. 

[Zeus 6019]

16 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

disgraceful. 

And I thought Austin was more vaxxed than most everywhere else in Texas ?

Iceland was super successful with vaccinations, 70-80%

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/23/iceland-tourism-pandemic-covid-vaccine/

Still had a 'surge' and going back to shutting everything down

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-iceland-reimposes-covid-restrictions-cases.html

The vaccination rates don't appear to have any effect on the COVID rates as far as I can tell. Maybe I'm not looking at the same statistics as yall.

 

I have a question for you guys that are balls deep into this shit, what ever happened to the freezers and keeping the vaccines cold. They spent like $2B on special freezers and storage at one point? Did they just say "fuck it" and forget about all this?

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-vaccines-cold-freeze-pfizer-moderna

Pfizer is racing to get approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, applying for emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on November 20. But the pharmaceutical giant faces a huge challenge in distributing its vaccine, which has to be kept an ultrafrosty –70° Celsius, requiring special storage freezers and shipping containers.

A similar vaccine developed by Moderna and the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases also requires freezing. But it survives at a balmier –20° C, so can be kept in a standard freezer, and can even be stored at refrigerator temperatures for up to a month. 

[Enchubben 5510]

goddammit my rage will know no bounds if this fucks up football season.

[Muy Frio 182]

Second tweet is Texas 

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

Looks like joining the SEC has gotten us back into the top 10!

[Snake Diggity 4621]

9 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Looks like joining the SEC has gotten us back into the top 10!

That’s insane.  Given the likelihood that only a small % of cases are being reported, this thing is absolutely tearing through LA and FL.   Upside continues to be that the wave should crest pretty fast compared to the previous waves.  But damn this shit is crazy.

[F250 28767]

19 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Looks like joining the SEC has gotten us back into the top 10!

[Anastasis 23469]

ATX @ 527 new cases and 91 new admits. Shit is spiraling out of control. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

There are plenty of unvaccinated idiots in Travis and Williamson county. 

Per capita there are undisputedly more unvaccinated idiots in the rural surrounding counties which is why they per capita are undisputedly and unnecessarily taking up more hospital beds in Travis county. 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by JimmyJames

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Welp yet another bad day for Travis County with 527 cases today (there were 273 this date last year).

477 people hospitalized and 91 admits (most since Jan 19th). This is just shitty. No perfuming this pig and it was completely avoidable.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 8/4 vs 8/3	2	50	67	134	131	58	47	24	11	3	527
% of Daily Change	0.38%	9.49%	12.71%	25.43%	24.86%	11.01%	8.92%	4.55%	2.09%	0.57%
% of Total Cases	0.63%	4.46%	10.71%	26.03%	20.78%	14.81%	11.01%	6.42%	3.12%	2.01%

[Neonmoon 38129]

Could we possibly see less deaths this time around because of vaccines? Or are more unvaccinated making up the gap?

[Radical Larry 28585]

[BrazilHorn 6586]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Could we possibly see less deaths this time around because of vaccines? Or are more unvaccinated making up the gap?

That’s been case thus far. Primarily led by fact that cases are skewing younger. This has been a surge of cases though so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. 

[scottsins 1966]

Here is a great and simple test to tell if you really need to go to ER even with Covid. If you have covid shortness of breath is common with exertion, but if you get out of breath talking then you need to go in. Otherwise there’s not much that they’ll do for you. 

A real doctor would recommend getting a cheap pulse monitor and just looking at the numbers.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

That’s been case thus far. Primarily led by fact that cases are skewing younger. This has been a surge of cases though so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. 

For now deaths will be less because the patients are younger. And *IF the numbers start to eventually go down again before the fall and winter we can avoid a catastrophic situation 

*IF.

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

3 hours ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Looks like joining the SEC has gotten us back into the top 10!

Not to self-reply, but seriously, the Entire SEC region is in the top three rows, none lower than #14.

[Muy Frio 182]

55 minutes ago, scottsins said:

A real doctor would recommend getting a cheap pulse monitor and just looking at the numbers.

If you want to buy one then that’s fine. Quantitative measures like oxygen saturation can be helpful but they have some limitations. You don’t know the patient’s baseline. Some people are chronically lower so they can tolerate a lower saturation than others. Numbers usually tell the full story but not always. 

On the other hand you can tell just by looking at someone if they’re in real respiratory distress. That’s why a qualitative measure like the one I described better fits the situation IMO. You don’t want to go to ER unless you really need to go. YMMV

It also eliminates people fretting over their monitors and thinking “he said to call him if it went this low, it’s not there yet but it dropped by 3 this hour, I better just call and check”. Then you get called and have to talk through it again and provide reassurance. You want good communication that keeps you from unnecessarily called. And that’s how you can tell I’m a real doctor. 

Edited August 5, 2021 by Muy Frio
Ps

[JimmyJames 12271]

20 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Not to self-reply, but seriously, the Entire SEC region is in the top three rows, none lower than #14.

Well the SEC is in the top 13 states. All 16 schools representing. Only Alaska crashes the party.

SEC! SEC! SEC!

[South Austin 52463]

22 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Well the SEC is in the top 13 states. All 16 schools representing. Only Alaska crashes the party.

SEC! SEC! SEC!

Alaska got a football team we can bring along with us?

[Biff Tannen 45676]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

ATX @ 527 new cases and 91 new admits. Shit is spiraling out of control. 

Ahem. 528. Chalk me up on the big board. 

[Anastasis 23469]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ahem. 528. Chalk me up on the big board. 

Damnit man, get well. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, scottsins said:

A real doctor would recommend getting a cheap pulse monitor and just looking at the numbers.

Maybe so but I’m more interested in hearing what fake doctors say on the net thank you very much. 

[atomheartbevo 89651]

21 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ahem. 528. Chalk me up on the big board. 

[bschoolprof 6252]

We’re all gettin the rona at some point. Just kinda feels that way. There’s no hiding from this son. 

Edited August 5, 2021 by bschoolprof

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

12 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

That’s insane.  Given the likelihood that only a small % of cases are being reported, this thing is absolutely tearing through LA and FL.   Upside continues to be that the wave should crest pretty fast compared to the previous waves.  But damn this shit is crazy.

I’ve been keeping an eye on Missouri and Arkansas to see when their wave crests as they’re a couple of weeks ahead of us. Florida might be a better indicator but their reporting sucks. They do report daily numbers but only update county #s once per week. 

[South Austin 52463]

9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ahem. 528. Chalk me up on the big board. 

Congrats, you did it!

[workswithseed 2103]

9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ahem. 528. Chalk me up on the big board. 

You made it on the list, pal.

[gmr548 16576]

Not to self-reply, but seriously, the Entire SEC region is in the top three rows, none lower than #14.

It Just Spreads More

[Anastasis 23469]

8 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

We’re all gettin the rona at some point. Just kinda feels that way. There’s no hiding from this son. 

Kinda where my head is going too. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

The NYTimes chart on Texas. 

Bad news:

• we've surpassed last summer's case count and there is no indication that we won't surpass the winter highs.
• hospitalizations are drastically rising. 

good news (so far)

• deaths have only slightly bumped up but we're all aware that there's a cycle and increased death is at the end. I hope we break this cycle but I'm not confident about that especially if COVID hits communities with higher than average comorbidities.

side note: Washpo picked up on the Dickinson councilmember that died. It's really scary that he went from anti-vax comments to hospitalization to death in 5 days. From pictures, the guy was extremely overweight which could be the worst comorbidity.

 

[Newdoc 3439]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

extremely overweight which could be the worst comorbidity.

Narrator, “It is”

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

55 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It Just Spreads More

She still looks like she's in a hostage video or deeply shaken.  We'll probably have the same expression soon.

Edited August 5, 2021 by J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

[Muy Frio 182]

48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Kinda where my head is going too. 

This thread is from a couple weeks ago. Long, has some good thoughts IMO. 
 

 

[Amos Moses 795]

This thread is from a couple weeks ago. Long, has some good thoughts IMO. 
 
[/url]  

Damn. That’s really depressing. To hell with all the unvaccinated morons.

[Longhorn94 2448]

19 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

This thread is from a couple weeks ago. Long, has some good thoughts IMO. 
 

 

uhhh thats funny. i am not saying he is wrong about anything but this kid is the son of one of our friends. he is a brilliant person (plan II / EE) but is a consultant that works on SW/EE stuff. He is not a doctor or have an expertise in pandemics or vaccines. Again, Im not saying he is wrong about anything, just good to have context when considering sources.