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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8810

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

Since I'm in the disabled camp, I'll say whatever I damned well please.

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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

Posted
Posted (edited)

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105142

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12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

did his executive order include mandatory mask usage in public places?

He did amp it up by saying "it's the responsibility" of all Texans to wear masks.....not that any of the people who need to hear that will listen to him.

The three chief demos that appear to not be wearing masks are:

1) MAGA!  NOBODY TELLS ME WHAT TO DO!  That is, the group that has decided that this is a political issue. 

2) Young adults.  Because they are immortal, and like to party.  And do stupid stuff all the time, so just add this to the list.

3) the very poor/uneducated/minorities.  For the same reason that these demographics often don't follow other safety measures, like seatbelts, child safety seats, etc.  Life just seems cheap, I guess.

I don't think the governor suggesting or even ordering masks will move the needle for any of those groups.  As pathetic as it is, I think we've maxed out on our ratio of mask-wearing.  So, it will be up to other measures.  Like what he just did, and more (closing bars, etc.).

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6607

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Posted

Boy oh boy people are going to hospital in droves. Huge spike in total numbers of whites & hispanics WoW. Change from June 1st of

+12 Black, +55 White, +91 Hispanics. Crazy shit.

  Asian Black White Hispanic Other
3/15/20 0 0 1 1 0
3/22/20 1 2 8 6 1
3/29/20 0 1 7 12 0
4/5/20 0 3 6 13 1
4/12/20 1 2 13 13 2
4/19/20 0 2 6 7 1
4/26/20 0 2 3 9 0
5/3/20 1 3 11 27 0
5/19/20 1 7 12 36 3
5/26/20 0 4 11 35 1
6/1/20 0 10 15 62 1
6/9/20 2 18 40 95 6
6/16/20 1 10 24 70 3
6/23/2020 3 22 70 153 7
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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Stay home order part deux

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/new-stay-home-work-safe-order-to-be-announced-as-harris-county-moves-to-covid-19-level-1/285-778b3e40-ef57-4de2-9e6c-cc4fddd10359

Hildalgo doesn’t have the authority to issue one like she did back in March. It’s in the hands of Abbott now.

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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41 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think we will see a constant new wave somewhere. NY is on a big downswing at the moment while TX, CA and FL are going up. NY will eventually become complacent and see a new wave perhaps a TX is coming down. 

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Posted
24 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I live on the edge of little Mexico in Austin, and nobody around here gives a fuck about masks or social distancing.

Laundromats are shoulder to shoulder packed every night when I drive by. Groups of people in their front yards.

 

tenor.gif

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48106

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

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drt

drt 638

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14339

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Posted
I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

I think that is a fair take.

 

I would recommend the NYT Daily podcast episode from a few weeks ago with their epidemic reporter. I posted a link in the other thread. He does a really good job of explaining what we know, what we were wrong about in February, and what we still don’t know.

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Skipper

Skipper 6135

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Posted

So Abbot's order restricts outdoor gatherings of 100 or more.   Why the hell hasn't he put more restrictions on indoor gatherings?  Like, I dunno, a damn 100+ person wedding my wife's 'MAGA' family seems convinced they are still having in a few weeks.  I don't see the rural county the venue is in doing anything voluntarily.  The entire thing is ridiculous. 

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Hook1997

Hook1997 5354

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

What he said, most in NY are still pretty isolated and actually wearing masks ect, many offices haven’t even opened up yet.  They are no where close to herd immunity.

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

 

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Skipper

Skipper 6135

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

I was thinking about this.  Certainly not herd but 25% immunity (to the extent that's actually a thing) plus more mask wearing and general precautions seems like you SHOULD be able to keep things under control.  In other words, 25% seems like it is a lot better than the 2 or 3% in Texas when this wave started.  But someone that really understands this stuff could absolutely convince me I'm wrong.

Edited by Skipper
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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19101

Posted
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13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

The difference between NYC and Texas is that in NYC, mask wearing is 100% inside, and probably about 85-90% outside.  I will admit that I take mine off outside if I can stay away from folks, but I will put it back on when the sidewalk gets crowded.  We have been doing this since Cuomo made it the law to have the mask.  Is it uncomfortable when it is hot and humid, fuck yeah.  

Also, I think when inside dining at restaurants and bars come back, then there will be strict capacity and other rules in place.  

However, I think the biggest difference is a cultural one.  We live on top of each other here.  There is more of a sense of community.  

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5088

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

Not to bring politics into it but I really think it depends on if they watch a certain national "news" network or not.  So the combination of stupid people and families with 16-25 year olds is what is spreading this.

I've got a 22 year old, then I have my 21 year old niece, and her fiancee (23)staying with us until they get an apartment. They all work in essential jobs. The boys are able to social distance since they are both boat mechanics, and work on the water. The niece is working at a daycare. The 19th Hole at our Country Club opened just two nights ago. The rule at my house, is if you feel the need to have to go to The 19th Hole, or any other bar, for a reason, you must call us so we can stack your shit out by the curb. This goes for CHIEF Jr. as well. We have done so well at masking, social distancing, staying home, and washing up. I'm not gonna let them fuck it up now.

CHIEF 

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mchookem

mchookem 16336

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23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He did amp it up by saying "it's the responsibility" of all Texans to wear masks.....not that any of the people who need to hear that will listen to him.

The three chief demos that appear to not be wearing masks are:

1) MAGA!  NOBODY TELLS ME WHAT TO DO!  That is, the group that has decided that this is a political issue. 

2) Young adults.  Because they are immortal, and like to party.  And do stupid stuff all the time, so just add this to the list.

3) the very poor/uneducated/minorities.  For the same reason that these demographics often don't follow other safety measures, like seatbelts, child safety seats, etc.  Life just seems cheap, I guess.

I don't think the governor suggesting or even ordering masks will move the needle for any of those groups.  As pathetic as it is, I think we've maxed out on our ratio of mask-wearing.  So, it will be up to other measures.  Like what he just did, and more (closing bars, etc.).

you forgot 4) the group that is convinced wearing masks is more unhealthy than not... you know, the ones that are going to pass out from the CO2/all the germs the mask traps/suffocation 🙄

i keep wanting to tell them to quit wearing masks made of plastic bags. idiots.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

your governor is just winging it. deal with it.

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texanbychoice

texanbychoice 354

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Posted
I think that is a fair take.
 
I would recommend the NYT Daily podcast episode from a few weeks ago with their epidemic reporter. I posted a link in the other thread. He does a really good job of explaining what we know, what we were wrong about in February, and what we still don’t know.

From the New York Times, I’m TexanByChoice. This. Is. The Daily....today Texas has become the latest hotspot in the pandemic. My colleague, DDD Dad, on the state’s dilemma.

It’s Friday, June 26th.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105142

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

you forgot 4) the group that is convinced wearing masks is more unhealthy than not... you know, the ones that are going to pass out from the CO2/all the germs the mask traps/suffocation 🙄

i keep wanting to tell them to quit wearing masks made of plastic bags. idiots.

Naah, those people are all in group 1.  The "I can't breathe" is just an excuse for "MAH FREEDOMS!  EAGLES AND GUNS!"

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drt

drt 638

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Posted

 

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I was thinking about this though.  Certainly not heard but 25% immunity (to the extent that's actually a thing) plus more mask wearing and general precautions seems like you SHOULD be able to keep things under control.  In other words, 25% seems like it is a lot better than the 2 or 3% in Texas when this wave started.  But someone that really understands this stuff could absolutely convince me I'm wrong.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

If you've got time this explains it better than I ever could. 

TLDR: if it behaves like other coronaviruses and immunity lasts 8-12 months, 25% of herd immunity just makes us yo-yo through cases indefinitely until we get a vaccine. but life goes on.

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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Posted
13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

My father is an ENT and his feeling is don't get too caught up in the science and to accept that re-infections are possible. But my feeling is (putting it in layman's terms), your immune system was able to fight off the infection once. And once it is able to fight off an infection, your immune system remembers for some period of time, what response was necessary to stop the infection and will be able to stop reinfection. If this was not possible, vaccinations would not work. So, personally I am not worried at all about re-infection and I would assume that Newdoc and Chicago Doc would feel the same way. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48106

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

My father is an ENT and his feeling is don't get too caught up in the science and to accept that re-infections are possible. But my feeling is (putting it in layman's terms), your immune system was able to fight off the infection once. And once it is able to fight off an infection, your immune system remembers for some period of time, what response was necessary to stop the infection and will be able to stop reinfection. If this was not possible, vaccinations would not work. So, personally I am not worried at all about re-infection and I would assume that Newdoc and Chicago Doc would feel the same way. 

I mean, I've been operating under the same assumption with my family as well. The fact your body has shown it can fight it off shows extremely well for your chances to do so again, moving forward. I think that where I come up to the end of that rope is situations involving high viral load. Where basically you just absorb a fuck ton of virus when you get infected, say breathing highly infected air for hours straight. That kind of thing. But yeah, I'm with you in general. I think I'm just hesitant to take it as a given without qualifications. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

I think diversity and inclusion are bullshit so that gives me carte blanche to fuck with Hot Wheels, right?

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

White people Arab people problems.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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Bevo

Bevo 13577

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Posted
17 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

Don't think of it in terms of herd immunity, just use logic. Herd immunity isn't a constant number. It depends on other factors such as social distancing, number of people immune, PPE wearing, etc.  Early in the disease process, herd immunity was thought to be in the 60-70% range. It won't be near that number now. Exlaining would require too many words, so just use logic. Think of encounters between infected and non-infected individuals like I explained some posts earlier.

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3357

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

Remember it’s not what is said or typed that’s important. It is who is saying it that matters. 

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