COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So Abbott's rolling back re-opening?

Goat Rodeo

[Js1 85085]

Wow someone grew a spine 

[MissingInAction 24807]

I live on the edge of little Mexico in Austin, and nobody around here gives a fuck about masks or social distancing.

Laundromats are shoulder to shoulder packed every night when I drive by. Groups of people in their front yards.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, Js1 said:

Wow someone grew a spine 

did his executive order include mandatory mask usage in public places?

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

28 minutes ago, BTW said:

Gov Abbot just announced all Bars to close and restaurants to go back to 50% capacity

 

I'm sure that'll solve everything

[Js1 85085]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

did his executive order include mandatory mask usage in public places?

Woah I said a spine. I said nothing about balls. He still lacks those 

[BigDHornfan 6533]

If you are AT ALL able to give blood, please please please do so as soon as you can

Did last week.

[texhorn 351]

Well, it's a (small) step in the right direction.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Please be careful posting pics on this thread. The Aniston “that’s cold” pic has been the tapa preview for about a day now and it brings me some small amount of joy during these trying times.

Gracias.

[SHOOTER12 8787]

6 minutes ago, BigDHornfan said:

Did last week.

Bastards won't take my blood.(Warfarin)

[SHOOTER12 8787]

8 minutes ago, texhorn said:

Well, it's a (small) step in the right direction.

Yes, although I'm amazed he took that step.

[Trey3216 15325]

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

[SHOOTER12 8787]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

Since I'm in the disabled camp, I'll say whatever I damned well please.

[GHOSTUSER 361]

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Iconoclast Texan

[Brisketexan 104537]

12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

did his executive order include mandatory mask usage in public places?

He did amp it up by saying "it's the responsibility" of all Texans to wear masks.....not that any of the people who need to hear that will listen to him.

The three chief demos that appear to not be wearing masks are:

1) MAGA!  NOBODY TELLS ME WHAT TO DO!  That is, the group that has decided that this is a political issue. 

2) Young adults.  Because they are immortal, and like to party.  And do stupid stuff all the time, so just add this to the list.

3) the very poor/uneducated/minorities.  For the same reason that these demographics often don't follow other safety measures, like seatbelts, child safety seats, etc.  Life just seems cheap, I guess.

I don't think the governor suggesting or even ordering masks will move the needle for any of those groups.  As pathetic as it is, I think we've maxed out on our ratio of mask-wearing.  So, it will be up to other measures.  Like what he just did, and more (closing bars, etc.).

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Stay at home order for houston

[Wally Pryor 5243]

8 hours ago, trauma babe said:

If you are AT ALL able to give blood, please please please do so as soon as you can

I gave a few weeks back and appointments are booked at the central location for a few weeks out.  So people are stepping up. 

[Captainant 27403]

Stay home order part deux

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/new-stay-home-work-safe-order-to-be-announced-as-harris-county-moves-to-covid-19-level-1/285-778b3e40-ef57-4de2-9e6c-cc4fddd10359

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Arent gyms still open? And carnivals?

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Boy oh boy people are going to hospital in droves. Huge spike in total numbers of whites & hispanics WoW. Change from June 1st of

+12 Black, +55 White, +91 Hispanics. Crazy shit.

	Asian	Black	White	Hispanic	Other
3/15/20	0	0	1	1	0
3/22/20	1	2	8	6	1
3/29/20	0	1	7	12	0
4/5/20	0	3	6	13	1
4/12/20	1	2	13	13	2
4/19/20	0	2	6	7	1
4/26/20	0	2	3	9	0
5/3/20	1	3	11	27	0
5/19/20	1	7	12	36	3
5/26/20	0	4	11	35	1
6/1/20	0	10	15	62	1
6/9/20	2	18	40	95	6
6/16/20	1	10	24	70	3
6/23/2020	3	22	70	153	7

[bluto 4880]

Stay at home order for houston

By whose order? Thought Abbott only had that power.

 

Nvm

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Just now, bluto said:

By whose order? Thought Abbott only had that power.

Hidalgo

[GHOSTUSER 361]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Stay home order part deux

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/new-stay-home-work-safe-order-to-be-announced-as-harris-county-moves-to-covid-19-level-1/285-778b3e40-ef57-4de2-9e6c-cc4fddd10359

Hildalgo doesn’t have the authority to issue one like she did back in March. It’s in the hands of Abbott now.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Iconoclast Texan

[Bevo 13516]

41 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think we will see a constant new wave somewhere. NY is on a big downswing at the moment while TX, CA and FL are going up. NY will eventually become complacent and see a new wave perhaps a TX is coming down. 

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

[Bevo 13516]

24 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I live on the edge of little Mexico in Austin, and nobody around here gives a fuck about masks or social distancing.

Laundromats are shoulder to shoulder packed every night when I drive by. Groups of people in their front yards.

 

[boknowstecmo 216]

I'm okay with the shutdown order, I just wish Abbott gave us more than a 3 hour notice to change everything again. 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

[Zepol87 9168]

6 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Hildalgo doesn’t have the authority to issue one like she did back in March. It’s in the hands of Abbott now.

This is what I thought as well. What a fucking crazy time we are living right now. 

[drt 637]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

[DDD Dad 14243]

I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

I think that is a fair take.

 

I would recommend the NYT Daily podcast episode from a few weeks ago with their epidemic reporter. I posted a link in the other thread. He does a really good job of explaining what we know, what we were wrong about in February, and what we still don’t know.

[Skipper 6100]

So Abbot's order restricts outdoor gatherings of 100 or more.   Why the hell hasn't he put more restrictions on indoor gatherings?  Like, I dunno, a damn 100+ person wedding my wife's 'MAGA' family seems convinced they are still having in a few weeks.  I don't see the rural county the venue is in doing anything voluntarily.  The entire thing is ridiculous. 

[Hook1997 5270]

2 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

What he said, most in NY are still pretty isolated and actually wearing masks ect, many offices haven’t even opened up yet.  They are no where close to herd immunity.

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

 

[Skipper 6100]

7 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

I was thinking about this.  Certainly not herd but 25% immunity (to the extent that's actually a thing) plus more mask wearing and general precautions seems like you SHOULD be able to keep things under control.  In other words, 25% seems like it is a lot better than the 2 or 3% in Texas when this wave started.  But someone that really understands this stuff could absolutely convince me I'm wrong.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Skipper

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

13 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't think this will be true. I think that there is a healthy immune population in NY and NJ now. What this means practically (and the numbers will show) is that if a positive person goes to a bar, many of those people he/she encounters at the bar will be immune to the coronavirus. And then any new people infected will be mostly encountering immune individuals and not spreading it around as fast. More people may become infected but it won't lead to an explosion of cases.

The same thing will happen in California, Texas, and Florida. Let's assume we start doing a better job of controlling the virus now. As soon as we let up again, the virus may come back but it won't lead to an explosion of cases because so many people will already be immune to it.

The difference between NYC and Texas is that in NYC, mask wearing is 100% inside, and probably about 85-90% outside.  I will admit that I take mine off outside if I can stay away from folks, but I will put it back on when the sidewalk gets crowded.  We have been doing this since Cuomo made it the law to have the mask.  Is it uncomfortable when it is hot and humid, fuck yeah.  

Also, I think when inside dining at restaurants and bars come back, then there will be strict capacity and other rules in place.  

However, I think the biggest difference is a cultural one.  We live on top of each other here.  There is more of a sense of community.  

[CHIEF 5067]

1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

Not to bring politics into it but I really think it depends on if they watch a certain national "news" network or not.  So the combination of stupid people and families with 16-25 year olds is what is spreading this.

I've got a 22 year old, then I have my 21 year old niece, and her fiancee (23)staying with us until they get an apartment. They all work in essential jobs. The boys are able to social distance since they are both boat mechanics, and work on the water. The niece is working at a daycare. The 19th Hole at our Country Club opened just two nights ago. The rule at my house, is if you feel the need to have to go to The 19th Hole, or any other bar, for a reason, you must call us so we can stack your shit out by the curb. This goes for CHIEF Jr. as well. We have done so well at masking, social distancing, staying home, and washing up. I'm not gonna let them fuck it up now.

CHIEF 

[mchookem 16184]

23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He did amp it up by saying "it's the responsibility" of all Texans to wear masks.....not that any of the people who need to hear that will listen to him.

The three chief demos that appear to not be wearing masks are:

1) MAGA!  NOBODY TELLS ME WHAT TO DO!  That is, the group that has decided that this is a political issue. 

2) Young adults.  Because they are immortal, and like to party.  And do stupid stuff all the time, so just add this to the list.

3) the very poor/uneducated/minorities.  For the same reason that these demographics often don't follow other safety measures, like seatbelts, child safety seats, etc.  Life just seems cheap, I guess.

I don't think the governor suggesting or even ordering masks will move the needle for any of those groups.  As pathetic as it is, I think we've maxed out on our ratio of mask-wearing.  So, it will be up to other measures.  Like what he just did, and more (closing bars, etc.).

you forgot 4) the group that is convinced wearing masks is more unhealthy than not... you know, the ones that are going to pass out from the CO2/all the germs the mask traps/suffocation 🙄

i keep wanting to tell them to quit wearing masks made of plastic bags. idiots.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

1 hour ago, BTW said:

Gov Abbot just announced all Bars to close and restaurants to go back to 50% capacity

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-takes-executive-action-to-contain-spread-of-covid-19

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

26 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

your governor is just winging it. deal with it.

[texanbychoice 354]

I think that is a fair take.
 
I would recommend the NYT Daily podcast episode from a few weeks ago with their epidemic reporter. I posted a link in the other thread. He does a really good job of explaining what we know, what we were wrong about in February, and what we still don’t know.

From the New York Times, I’m TexanByChoice. This. Is. The Daily....today Texas has become the latest hotspot in the pandemic. My colleague, DDD Dad, on the state’s dilemma.

It’s Friday, June 26th.

[Iceman 2639]

22 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Arent gyms still open? And carnivals?

They gotta practice, right?

[Brisketexan 104537]

2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

you forgot 4) the group that is convinced wearing masks is more unhealthy than not... you know, the ones that are going to pass out from the CO2/all the germs the mask traps/suffocation 🙄

i keep wanting to tell them to quit wearing masks made of plastic bags. idiots.

Naah, those people are all in group 1.  The "I can't breathe" is just an excuse for "MAH FREEDOMS!  EAGLES AND GUNS!"

[drt 637]

 

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I was thinking about this though.  Certainly not heard but 25% immunity (to the extent that's actually a thing) plus more mask wearing and general precautions seems like you SHOULD be able to keep things under control.  In other words, 25% seems like it is a lot better than the 2 or 3% in Texas when this wave started.  But someone that really understands this stuff could absolutely convince me I'm wrong.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

If you've got time this explains it better than I ever could. 

TLDR: if it behaves like other coronaviruses and immunity lasts 8-12 months, 25% of herd immunity just makes us yo-yo through cases indefinitely until we get a vaccine. but life goes on.

[Bevo 13516]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I bailed on the other 'rona thread because of a general proliferation of CaptainAnt-ics. So I might have missed something, but aren't we still operating under an assumption that antibodies make you truly immune, as well as unclear how long any immunity lasts? I know the antibody plasma has shown promising as a therapy for actively sick folks, but isn't long term immunity and the ability to not get re-infected still wish-casting?

My father is an ENT and his feeling is don't get too caught up in the science and to accept that re-infections are possible. But my feeling is (putting it in layman's terms), your immune system was able to fight off the infection once. And once it is able to fight off an infection, your immune system remembers for some period of time, what response was necessary to stop the infection and will be able to stop reinfection. If this was not possible, vaccinations would not work. So, personally I am not worried at all about re-infection and I would assume that Newdoc and Chicago Doc would feel the same way. 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Wow someone grew a spine 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

My father is an ENT and his feeling is don't get too caught up in the science and to accept that re-infections are possible. But my feeling is (putting it in layman's terms), your immune system was able to fight off the infection once. And once it is able to fight off an infection, your immune system remembers for some period of time, what response was necessary to stop the infection and will be able to stop reinfection. If this was not possible, vaccinations would not work. So, personally I am not worried at all about re-infection and I would assume that Newdoc and Chicago Doc would feel the same way. 

I mean, I've been operating under the same assumption with my family as well. The fact your body has shown it can fight it off shows extremely well for your chances to do so again, moving forward. I think that where I come up to the end of that rope is situations involving high viral load. Where basically you just absorb a fuck ton of virus when you get infected, say breathing highly infected air for hours straight. That kind of thing. But yeah, I'm with you in general. I think I'm just hesitant to take it as a given without qualifications. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

42 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

I think diversity and inclusion are bullshit so that gives me carte blanche to fuck with Hot Wheels, right?

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

48 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

What I hate most about this is the unpredictability. Can’t plan for anything. Was going to build a house this year and that has gone up in flames along with some nice trips overseas. I know everyone is going through this same shit and cry me a River and all that. I have a trip planned to SPI for the 4th and have been looking forward to it for a mental break. Now that’s a hotspot and Laguna Bob’s is closed. Thinking about shutting that down and eating the AirBNB cost. A guy who offices next to me might have been exposed. I’m mentally spent with all of this. 

White people Arab people problems.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[Bevo 13516]

17 minutes ago, drt said:

I think 20-25% of seretological studies are showing antibodies in NY/NJ.  That isn't near enough for herd immunity.

Don't think of it in terms of herd immunity, just use logic. Herd immunity isn't a constant number. It depends on other factors such as social distancing, number of people immune, PPE wearing, etc.  Early in the disease process, herd immunity was thought to be in the 60-70% range. It won't be near that number now. Exlaining would require too many words, so just use logic. Think of encounters between infected and non-infected individuals like I explained some posts earlier.

[Telegraph_it 3353]

44 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  I hope your fucking high horse breaks a leg walking out of the stall.  
 

Jesus people.  

Remember it’s not what is said or typed that’s important. It is who is saying it that matters. 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck every single one of you mouthbreathing fucksticks that continually go on histrionic rants of “inclusiveness” and equality yet continue to make fun of a man that is disabled.  

And yet you have no issue with us making fun of aggy.