COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[atomheartbevo 89362]

58 minutes ago, BigDHornfan said:

Did last week.

Freckles....so you're descended from bog jumpers?

Good of you to give blood though.  I need to do that.

[TexasEd 8062]

53 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Bastards won't take my blood.(Warfarin)

For me Mad Cow since I lived in UK in the 80s. They need an antibody test for that. 

[drt 637]

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Don't think of it in terms of herd immunity, just use logic. Herd immunity isn't a constant number. It depends on other factors such as social distancing, number of people immune, PPE wearing, etc.  Early in the disease process, herd immunity was thought to be in the 60-70% range. It won't be near that number now. Exlaining would require too many words, so just use logic. Think of encounters between infected and non-infected individuals like I explained some posts earlier.

Just go read the article I linked https://ncase.me/covid-19/ as it actually has data simulations for those very factors you mention.  

 

[Trey3216 15325]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And yet you have no issue with us making fun of aggy.

None at all.  They’re like making fun of cats with two heads 

[bschoolprof 6232]

2 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I swear that meme about wearing a mask is an IQ test is true.  It's not a race thing, it's not a class thing, it's s stupid thing.  I see some poor people of color being more strict and some wealthy white people that DGAF.

Not to bring politics into it but I really think it depends on if they watch a certain national "news" network or not.  So the combination of stupid people and families with 16-25 year olds is what is spreading this.

The data suggest it is partly a race and a class thing though.  As discussed on this thread, 60% of the covid cases in Travis county are in the Hispanic community, and the case maps by zip code show that poor Hispanic areas in Austin have the most cases.   Some of this is due to working conditions and living conditions. But . . . 

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I live on the edge of little Mexico in Austin, and nobody around here gives a fuck about masks or social distancing.

Laundromats are shoulder to shoulder packed every night when I drive by. Groups of people in their front yards.

 

 . . . a lot of it is due to this shit.  And it deserves our indignation just as much as the mouthbreathers and muh rights at the grocery store.  Mask up, pendejos.  

[Bevo 13493]

40 minutes ago, drt said:

Just go read the article I linked https://ncase.me/covid-19/ as it actually has data simulations for those very factors you mention.  

 

Yeah thanks, that seemed pretty thorough. About halfway through it gets to intermittent lockdowns and it confirms what I was saying and states the positive logic behind it. But remember when you run those simulations, they are just using educated guesses as far as R0 so the curves should be pretty accurate but the actual numbers may be different.

I didn't run the simulations but intermittent lockdowns should look somewhat like a dampened sine wave (for the engineers on this board).

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Bevo

[Telegraph_it 3353]

4 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The data suggest it is partly a race and a class thing though.  As discussed on this thread, 60% of the covid cases in Travis county are in the Hispanic community, and the case maps by zip code show that poor Hispanic areas in Austin have the most cases.   Some of this is due to working conditions and living conditions. But . . . 

 . . . a lot of it is due to this shit.  And it deserves our indignation just as much as the mouthbreathers and muh rights at the grocery store.  Mask up, pendejos.  

[gsoda3 3234]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Boy oh boy people are going to hospital in droves. Huge spike in total numbers of whites & hispanics WoW. Change from June 1st of

+12 Black, +55 White, +91 Hispanics. Crazy shit.

	Asian	Black	White	Hispanic	Other
3/15/20	0	0	1	1	0
3/22/20	1	2	8	6	1
3/29/20	0	1	7	12	0
4/5/20	0	3	6	13	1
4/12/20	1	2	13	13	2
4/19/20	0	2	6	7	1
4/26/20	0	2	3	9	0
5/3/20	1	3	11	27	0
5/19/20	1	7	12	36	3
5/26/20	0	4	11	35	1
6/1/20	0	10	15	62	1
6/9/20	2	18	40	95	6
6/16/20	1	10	24	70	3
6/23/2020	3	22	70	153	7

what city is this?

[justhookit 4174]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

WE'RE BACK OPEN FOR BUSINESS, BABY! FUCK MASKS AMIRITE???? [/abbot]

Seriously, this thread has gone 18 pages now with no problems. Go back to your shithole.

[Captainant 27311]

5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Seriously, this thread has gone 18 pages now with no problems. Go back to your shithole.

I'm not posting anything political. Houston, Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio are running out of ICU beds and COVID is spiking up to record highs.

Weeks ago, local leaders and municipalities took measures to mitigate and compel behaviors that would at the very least lessen the intensity of a new outbreak. Abbott undercut their authority and rolled back those proactive actions and pushed the reopening timeline ahead of the stated reopening guidelines published by our state, the CDC, and DHS. Now, we are where we are.

Those are all facts. They upset me too, but you shouldn't direct your anger at me.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

10 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

what city is this?

Austin

[Dbeasy 14953]

I need an outlet.
My family has been on the conservative side of precautions we used curbside for 2 months until we were told "back to normal"  but should have known better. (We're going back) We have been doing a small group of families contact limitation so our kids don't go crazy.  The problem is we have the 11 and 6 year olds with friends that have same age kids and then we have the 13 year old.  13 year old friends have older high school and college age siblings.  This is going to be our problem.  We're going to have to cut our 13 year old off from her friends and it sucks for her but we don't want this.
We are finishing a trip to SPI right now with one of the families in the same condo complex.  It's a hotspot down here but we have limited trips to get stuff and we are all wearing masks except when at our condo pool or on the beach.  Not everyone else is following the rules of wearing masks indoors.  I swear that meme about wearing a mask is an IQ test is true.  It's not a race thing, it's not a class thing, it's s stupid thing.  I see some poor people of color being more strict and some wealthy white people that DGAF.
Not to bring politics into it but I really think it depends on if they watch a certain national "news" network or not.  So the combination of stupid people and families with 16-25 year olds is what is spreading this.

Didn’t have time to read all this but here you go.

[justhookit 4174]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I'm not posting anything political. Houston, Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio are running out of ICU beds and COVID is spiking up to record highs.

Weeks ago, local leaders and municipalities took measures to mitigate and compel behaviors that would at the very least lessen the intensity of a new outbreak. Abbott undercut their authority and rolled back those proactive actions and pushed the reopening timeline ahead of the stated reopening guidelines published by our state, the CDC, and DHS. Now, we are where we are.

Those are all facts. They upset me too, but you shouldn't direct your anger at me.

Uh, I started this thread and we’ve been talking about those things for eighteen fucking pages. Go away.

 

[GHOSTUSER 361]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

White people Arab people problems.

Don’t ever call me an Arab again.

[justhookit 4174]

21 total cases in Port A now. We were sitting at 7 two weeks ago when this new spike started. And we still don’t have results from all the bar and restaurant people that got tested Monday and Tuesday. Not much at all is going to be open here by next week. Welcome back to April. 2020 can blow me.

[justhookit 4174]

On 6/22/2020 at 5:43 PM, justhookit said:

Hospitalizations jumped from 17 to 28. ICU from 3 to 11.

Nueces County. That post was on Monday. We are now at 41 and 16 and the spike hasn’t even hit yet.

 

[XYZ 2154]

Thread starter should have the ability to ban people from his thread.

[justhookit 4174]

Lol I think he did get banned. His post got deleted.

[Texaus 372]

I've got a 22 year old, then I have my 21 year old niece, and her fiancee (23)staying with us until they get an apartment. They all work in essential jobs. The boys are able to social distance since they are both boat mechanics, and work on the water. The niece is working at a daycare. The 19th Hole at our Country Club opened just two nights ago. The rule at my house, is if you feel the need to have to go to The 19th Hole, or any other bar, for a reason, you must call us so we can stack your shit out by the curb. This goes for CHIEF Jr. as well. We have done so well at masking, social distancing, staying home, and washing up. I'm not gonna let them fuck it up now.
CHIEF 

Pics 22 yo niece aren’t showing up.

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Don’t ever call me an Arab again.

Ok, dahati.

[Macanudo 12922]

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Ok, dahati.

I wonder how cases for countries around the Arabian Gulf are doing.

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2003]

As someone who works in the fitness industry, I’m guessing gyms are on deck for closing. Hopefully State unemployment can get a stimulus boost or something. Fucking Covid. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

I wonder how cases for countries around the Arabian Gulf are doing.

Since June 1 (Total Cases):

Iran +42%

Saudi Arabia +100%

Oman +205%

Kuwait +58%

UAE +35%

Bahrain +107%

[Skipper 6088]

Anecdotal but wife got forwarded a text from her friend that has a good friend that is an ER Dr. in Dallas.  It seems like her schedule is 1 week 'on' 1 week off.  She texted that they had 26 COVID when left last week and now close to 60.   Quite a few 40's and younger and several in 20's w/o known pre-existing conditions.  Said their designated "COVID-ICU" is maxed so opening another COVID-Unit.

[bschoolprof 6232]

I posted some data earlier from the Houston area from the med center, but SETRAC has much better time-series data.  Below is total patients in ICU (blue line) and total COVID positive patients in ICU (green line) for Harris County from 3/19-6/25 (the total data range they have available):

The % of covid patients in ICU has gone from less than 1% on 3/19 to about 33% now.  Total ICU patients haven't really gone up that much over the same time frame, which I think is interesting, and perhaps encouraging depending on your disposition.  My guess is this could be due to: a) moving non-covid ICU cases to general beds (or trying to shorten their stays) to compensate for more covid patients, and b) more testing of patients in general (i.e., the true green line was actually higher back in May and June and we now classify more patients as covid positive).  I suppose it could also be due to more covid spread in hospitals, but I don't know how plausible that is.  

Anyway, the trends are very worrisome, but this made me feel a little better.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Lake Pflugerville shut down.

Guessing gyms are up next.

[Skipper 6088]

Dallas coming in hot on a Friday with a record +496 in cases and +10 deaths.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

21 total cases in Port A now. We were sitting at 7 two weeks ago when this new spike started. And we still don’t have results from all the bar and restaurant people that got tested Monday and Tuesday. Not much at all is going to be open here by next week. Welcome back to April. 2020 can blow me.

I wouldn't worry.  Most people who caught it in Port A are long gone and busy spreading it elsewhere in the state.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Dallas coming in hot on a Friday with a record +496 in cases and +10 deaths.

Austin/Travis County: 

We are updating the database for the dashboard. As a result of the update, the data on the dashboard will not be updated on Friday, June 25 and will show Thursday's data until Saturday, June 27 afternoon. We appreciate your patience during this outage.

 

[mdmost 42775]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Dallas coming in hot on a Friday with a record +496 in cases and +10 deaths.

And Country Strong Clay Jenkins got shit on for weeks in May for wanting to keep things more tightly reined in. 

[GHOSTUSER 361]

39 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Ok, dahati.

LOL me dahati. That’s cute. Me and my family are the exact opposite of that. Did your Persian ex-girlfriend teach you that. 

[XYZ 2154]

26 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I posted some data earlier from the Houston area from the med center, but SETRAC has much better time-series data.  Below is total patients in ICU (blue line) and total COVID positive patients in ICU (green line) for Harris County from 3/19-6/25 (the total data range they have available):

The % of covid patients in ICU has gone from less than 1% on 3/19 to about 33% now.  Total ICU patients haven't really gone up that much over the same time frame, which I think is interesting, and perhaps encouraging depending on your disposition.  My guess is this could be due to: a) moving non-covid ICU cases to general beds (or trying to shorten their stays) to compensate for more covid patients, and b) more testing of patients in general (i.e., the true green line was actually higher back in May and June and we now classify more patients as covid positive).  I suppose it could also be due to more covid spread in hospitals, but I don't know how plausible that is.  

Anyway, the trends are very worrisome, but this made me feel a little better.  

 

If the trend continues, in another couple of weeks they’ll be at the red line, and then what? Field hospitals courtesy of the Army?

[gmr548 16463]

Deleted. Tapa fucked up and the point was actually made above.

 

[wild_turkey 3150]

46 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The % of covid patients in ICU has gone from less than 1% on 3/19 to about 33% now.  Total ICU patients haven't really gone up that much over the same time frame, which I think is interesting, and perhaps encouraging depending on your disposition.  My guess is this could be due to: a) moving non-covid ICU cases to general beds (or trying to shorten their stays) to compensate for more covid patients, and b) more testing of patients in general (i.e., the true green line was actually higher back in May and June and we now classify more patients as covid positive).  I suppose it could also be due to more covid spread in hospitals, but I don't know how plausible that is.  

I know a common theory among COVID naysayers is that COVID hospitalization and ICU numbers only look worse because hospitals are now COVID testing everyone, and any positive test gets a patient included in the daily statistics. Therefore, patients who may be in the hospital for something entirely different are also being counted in the COVID stats, even if they aren't primarily hospitalized from COVID.

This is a somewhat different take on the previous conspiracy theory that hospitals were falsifying records and death certificates to get COVID payments. That theory implied intentional wrongdoing for financial or political reasons, whereas this current situation, if there is even any truth to it, would be more of an unintentional misrepresentation of reality.

I don't necessarily subscribe to this theory, but I also haven't seen any good information that supports or refutes it. I would like to have some transparency on how the data is compiled. Does anyone have a source that could clarify this?

[mdmost 42775]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

As he should’ve. 

Yeah, we're doing great after things opened back up. 

[Captainant 27311]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Well your prior post was totally political and idiotic. And now, deleted. Go get your shine box. 

Lol it was literally the actions taken by Abbott. He stuck down municipal and local level facemask mandates and proclaimed the state open for business, and asserted his authority to overrule local authority. And now we are running out of ICU capacity, hospitals are filling, and we are seeking peak infections across the state. 

Facts. 

[bschoolprof 6232]

25 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I know a common theory among COVID naysayers is that COVID hospitalization and ICU numbers only look worse because hospitals are now COVID testing everyone, and any positive test gets a patient included in the daily statistics. Therefore, patients who may be in the hospital for something entirely different are also being counted in the COVID stats, even if they aren't primarily hospitalized from COVID.

This is a somewhat different take on the previous conspiracy theory that hospitals were falsifying records and death certificates to get COVID payments. That theory implied intentional wrongdoing for financial or political reasons, whereas this current situation, if there is even any truth to it, would be more of an unintentional misrepresentation of reality.

I don't necessarily subscribe to this theory, but I also haven't seen any good information that supports or refutes it. I would like to have some transparency on how the data is compiled. Does anyone have a source that could clarify this?

It's a good question, but I'm not aware of any data on this one way or the other.  

[Skipper 6088]

35 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I know a common theory among COVID naysayers is that COVID hospitalization and ICU numbers only look worse because hospitals are now COVID testing everyone, and any positive test gets a patient included in the daily statistics. Therefore, patients who may be in the hospital for something entirely different are also being counted in the COVID stats, even if they aren't primarily hospitalized from COVID.

 

I just can't fathom there is a statistically significant percentage of people that are hospitalized, are COVID positive, but the hospitalization is completely unrelated to having COVID.  I mean maybe a handful of women giving birth?  But if you are in the hospital for a heart attack, and you are COVID positive, odds are pretty good the mass inflammation from COVID is what triggered that heart attack.  I've seen it posted by dr's either here or in another forum where this theory was raised that it's all these asymptomatic people coming in for elective surgeries and testing positive.  That was shut down as several Dr's indicated you aren't going to get admitted for an elective surgery if you are COVID positive.  Your surgery is going to get rescheduled. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Skipper

[Catpfish 618]

10 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

It's a good question, but I'm not aware of any data on this one way or the other.  

But in a way, it really doesn't matter, does it?  Once you are Covid+, the hospital has to treat you the same as someone who is worse off in the sense that they have to tie up the special wards and use the PPE on you.  Or I could be completely full of Covid free shit

[safe sex 11659]

6 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

What's the situation like in Texas? I live in California now, and here there were significant shortages of blood. At least locally, they started offering free COVID-19 antibody test with donation and all of a sudden it's a 3-week waiting list to donate. Is that being done in your area?

Couldn't tell you the actual supply levels of blood that Travis Co's overarching blood organization has, nor about their donation drive incentives, but my hospital ran out of PRBCs last night

[safe sex 11659]

6 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

We are hanging at the crib and are vigorous mask wearers. Am positive that none of us have CV. I have turned into an OCD hand washer through all of this.

Definitely respectful of all the folks here in Breckenridge, just disappointing in the way that many Texans have turned wearing masks into some breach of their fundamental rights.

Not trying to be a bitch, but unless you get tested and see those results back on the same day, you can never be positive that you don't have SARS-CoV-2. 

[CHIEF 5057]

Just talked to a cousin who is an ICU nurse at Dallas Methodist. He said that he doesn't have that much faith in the COVID test. He said if you have been infected, but you are asymptomatic, that they test them four times, and all must be positive. With ICU nurses being in short supply, I guess they want to ABSOLUTELY make sure. Apparently an abundance of false positives. I know that my county has shown 59 positives, but the health data turned in at that time, only said there were 35 confirmed cases. Makes you wonder how much discrepancy there is in the numbers.

CHIEF

Edited June 26, 2020 by CHIEF

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Just talked to a cousin who is an ICU nurse at Dallas Methodist. He said that he doesn't have that much faith in the COVID test. He said if you have been infected, but you are asymptomatic, that they test them four times, and all must be positive. With ICU nurses being in short supply, I guess they want to ABSOLUTELY make sure. Apparently an abundance of false positives. I know that my county has shown 59 positives, but the health data turned in at that time, only said there were 35 confirmed cases. Makes you wonder how much discrepancy there is in the numbers.
CHIEF

The tests are 100% accurate 30% of the time.

So what are we doing?

[safe sex 11659]

28 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I just can't fathom there is a statistically significant percentage of people that are hospitalized, are COVID positive, but the hospitalization is completely unrelated to having COVID.  I mean maybe a handful of women giving birth?  But if you are in the hospital for a heart attack, and you are COVID positive, odds are pretty good the mass inflammation from COVID is what triggered that heart attack.  I've seen it posted by dr's either here or in another forum where this theory was raised that it's all these asymptomatic people coming in for elective surgeries and testing positive.  That was shut down as several Dr's indicated you aren't going to get admitted for an elective surgery if you are COVID positive.  Your surgery is going to get rescheduled. 

We've had trauma patients (MVCs, GSWs, stabbings) come in and test positive (as we test literally every person who is admitted now). They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floor even if they aren't having respiratory or systemic issues related to COVID. We have also had elective surgery patients come in and test negative, become slightly symptomatic, and test positive. They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floors, taking up those beds that could be for patients who are actually struggling with the virus.

Edited June 26, 2020 by trauma babe

[Fondren & Main 6658]

1 minute ago, trauma babe said:

We've had trauma patients (MVCs, GSWs, stabbings) come in and test positive (as we test literally every person who is admitted now). They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floor even if they aren't having respiratory issues related to COVID. We have also had elective surgery patients come in and test negative, become slightly symptomatic, and test positive. They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floors, taking up those beds that could be for patients who are actually struggling with the virus.

What does this mean?  It sounds like some fuckery is about.

[safe sex 11659]

1 minute ago, Fondren & Main said:

What does this mean?  It sounds like some fuckery is about.

What sounds fuckery about it? There is plenty of fuckery going on, believe me, but I don't know what you're referring to here.

[Skipper 6088]

1 minute ago, trauma babe said:

We've had trauma patients (MVCs, GSWs, stabbings) come in and test positive (as we test literally every person who is admitted now). They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floor even if they aren't having respiratory issues related to COVID. We have also had elective surgery patients come in and test negative, become slightly symptomatic, and test positive. They go to the COVID ICU or COVID med/surg floors, taking up those beds that could be for patients who are actually struggling with the virus.

But I guess the question is whether that category of people (happen to be COVID positive but wouldn't be hospitalized except they got stabbed or elective surgery patient that first tested negative then subsequently tested positive) is a material enough amount of the "COVID + hospitalizations" that they are skewing the numbers and making things look materially worse than they actually are.  That's what some of the COVID conspiracy theorists are claiming.

[Fondren & Main 6658]

1 minute ago, trauma babe said:

What sounds fuckery about it? There is plenty of fuckery going on, believe me, but I don't know what you're referring to here.

From your post, it sounds like the hospitalization numbers are being artificially inflated when they don't need to be.  Am I incorrect in that assumption?

[Fondren & Main 6658]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

But I guess the question is whether that category of people (happen to be COVID positive but wouldn't be hospitalized except they got stabbed or elective surgery patient that first tested negative then subsequently tested positive) is a material enough amount of the "COVID + hospitalizations" that they are skewing the numbers and making things look materially worse than they actually are.  That's what some of the COVID conspiracy theorists are claiming.

That's what it reads like.

[smoky 837]

Like when there's a car accident, both drivers are sober, but the passenger is drunk and that's now considered an "alcohol related accident?"