COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Surly Bevo 24908]

Tarrant County Covid19 occupied beds went down 40 today from 339 to 299 so we got that going for us....which is nice

Edited June 26, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Dahobbs 17534]

9 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

That's what it reads like.

No, it doesn't. She is just saying that it happens occasionally. Why would we be shocked about that? And why do we think it would be inappropriate? The whole point of the Covid-19 areas is to isolate those patients from non-infected ones.

[safe sex 11727]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

But I guess the question is whether that category of people (happen to be COVID positive but wouldn't be hospitalized except they got stabbed or elective surgery patient that first tested negative then subsequently tested positive) is a material enough amount of the "COVID + hospitalizations" that they are skewing the numbers and making things look materially worse than they actually are.  That's what some of the COVID conspiracy theorists are claiming.

Ah, I see what you mean. There aren't that many of those. But they take up an COVID ICU bed all the same. It is necessary for them to do so, because they have COVID and it doesn't matter that the disease is, as far as we know, asymptomatic in them. Once they stabilize and leave the ICU, they still require care and because they have the virus, they have to go to the designated m/s floor. We also don't have enough of a sample size, either here in Travis County or really worldwide (to my knowledge), as to how the massive systemic inflammatory response that occurs due to the polytrauma of initial injury as well as surgical intervention makes the virus more opportunistic. Violent traumas skew towards younger, otherwise healthy patients. Also, our traumas, while life-threatening, have all required relatively simple surgeries to fix them. We will not always be so lucky. 

[wild_turkey 3159]

18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

But I guess the question is whether that category of people (happen to be COVID positive but wouldn't be hospitalized except they got stabbed or elective surgery patient that first tested negative then subsequently tested positive) is a material enough amount of the "COVID + hospitalizations" that they are skewing the numbers and making things look materially worse than they actually are.  That's what some of the COVID conspiracy theorists are claiming.

That's what I'm asking about, and I'm asking out of genuine curiosity about the data, not because I necessarily believe it is/isn't happening to a significant degree.

Texas reported 1,756 COVID hospitalizations on 6/1 and now we are showing 4,739 hospitalizations as of yesterday. That's obviously a huge increase and most rational people would assume that it's largely due to people primarily hospitalized for COVID. I just wish there was some way to know what % of that is actually a result of people hospitalized for other causes that happen to test positive for COVID despite not having any significant COVID problems.

What I think would be helpful is to show the following data over time:

• Total hospitalized patients from all causes
• Total hospitalized patients with a positive COVID test
• Hospitalized patients with COVID or complications secondary to COVID as primary reason for admission
• Hospitalized patients with other primary reasons for admission who also have a positive COVID test
• Daily new hospital admits from all causes
• Daily new hospital admits primarily due to COVID
• Length of stay rolling average

And then repeat the same data for ICU admissions. Forgive me if that data is being publicly reported somewhere, but I would also appreciate if someone could kindly show me where to see it.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18549]

San Antonio be fucked. 638 new cases yesterday. The past few weeks are a complete shit show and on a horrible, catastrophic trajectory.

I just got back from picking up a curbside order from HEB -- yes, they were open -- and it was unusually crowded in the parking lot. The girl loading the groceries told me that they were having another run with orders for the next day increasing quickly (even though I just checked the app and they still have a bunch of open slots tomorrow afternoon). I guess it's time to start hoarding toilet paper again and not being able to buy pasta. Just fucking great.

I am beyond frustrated with all of this. I have been living like a got dam monk for three months plus and shit is worse than ever, and getting rapidly more awful. I'm increasingly getting mad at myself for adhering to extreme social distancing, working from home, etc. On the plus side, I'm not sick and nobody in my family is sick. But what the fuck am I doing all this for so every asshole can irresponsibly do whatever they want, ultimately forcing everybody else back into this shit storm? People suck.

And to top it off, the school district sent out an email and in the next two weeks we have to choose whether our kids will distance learn or be on site in the fall. You have to pick one or the other, in the next two weeks. And the way I'm interpreting it is that you are stuck with that decision for the school year or at least the first semester. Really? Looking at that trend line above, I have a feeling that they are all going to have to move to distance learning regardless, but how in the blue fuck am I supposed to make that decision right now? My kids didn't learn shit in distance learning this spring. It was a terrible experience for them and for us. And now I get to choose between their educational and social development and rolling the dice with their/our health, with no option to change our mind based on how the virus progresses in the community.

[stork642 4498]

35 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, it doesn't. She is just saying that it happens occasionally. Why would we be shocked about that? And why do we think it would be inappropriate? The whole point of the Covid-19 areas is to isolate those patients from non-infected ones.

I think it is material if a particular patient is admitted to the hospital because of Covid vs someone admitted because of something else that happens to have Covid.  Doesn’t preclude the hospital from making sure they don’t infect other people and/it treating the Covid but it is important to have real numbers of those requiring hospitalization due only to Covid.   

[FartingMonk 3606]

70-80 percent of ICU beds are normally occupied on any given weekend.  During Covid 25 percent of ICU beds were occupied.  Now beds are at 100 percent.  Still only 25-30 are Covid related.  The way is is reporting is the surge is from Covid when it is really from stuff being normal again.  At least that's what my nurse and doctor friends in the med center is telling me.

[Armybrat 40844]

6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Naah, those people are all in group 1.  The "I can't breathe" is just an excuse for "MAH FREEDOMS!  EAGLES AND GUNS!"

Do you really think all those millennials packed into those now closed Austin bars over the past two weeks are gun-totin’ MAGA hat wearers?

[bschoolprof 6254]

33 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

That's what I'm asking about, and I'm asking out of genuine curiosity about the data, not because I necessarily believe it is/isn't happening to a significant degree.

Texas reported 1,756 COVID hospitalizations on 6/1 and now we are showing 4,739 hospitalizations as of yesterday. That's obviously a huge increase and most rational people would assume that it's largely due to people primarily hospitalized for COVID. I just wish there was some way to know what % of that is actually a result of people hospitalized for other causes that happen to test positive for COVID despite not having any significant COVID problems.

What I think would be helpful is to show the following data over time:

• Total hospitalized patients from all causes
• Total hospitalized patients with a positive COVID test
• Hospitalized patients with COVID or complications secondary to COVID as primary reason for admission
• Hospitalized patients with other primary reasons for admission who also have a positive COVID test
• Daily new hospital admits from all causes
• Daily new hospital admits primarily due to COVID
• Length of stay rolling average

And then repeat the same data for ICU admissions. Forgive me if that data is being publicly reported somewhere, but I would also appreciate if someone could kindly show me where to see it.

There is no place to see anything like this statewide (that I am aware of).  Bullet 3 and 4 would be great but I am not sure anyone (even hospitals) are tracking/collecting this data, and I doubt bullets 5 or 6 are tracked.  Bullets 1 and 2 are put out by some hospital networks.  Here's what SETRAC reports for Harris County for the first 2 bullets:

Note that the scale changes for the green line (so keep that in mind when judging slope severity).  The scale change is from SETRAC, not me.  

It looks (to me) like total all-cause hospitalizations have trended upward slow and steady, almost independent of COVID positives.  Make of that what you will.  

If you are interested in time-series data, the setrac data is the best I have found.  

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by bschoolprof

[Brisketexan 105139]

29 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Do you really think all those millennials packed into those now closed Austin bars over the past two weeks are gun-totin’ MAGA hat wearers?

You missed my original post -- those folks are in group 2: the young immortals who make stupid decisions and give no fucks.

[Guest Lobo]

"The Young Immortals", brisket?

Are we gonna have to organize a nationwide Highlander Competition between the morbidly obese/elderly Trump voters who believe the virus is a hoax versus the millennials who believe it's real but it can't defeat their youthful vigor.  THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!  

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

But I guess the question is whether that category of people (happen to be COVID positive but wouldn't be hospitalized except they got stabbed or elective surgery patient that first tested negative then subsequently tested positive) is a material enough amount of the "COVID + hospitalizations" that they are skewing the numbers and making things look materially worse than they actually are.  That's what some of the COVID conspiracy theorists are claiming.

I’ve read that theory. It makes a certain amount of sense and I’m positive the number of people that fit into that category are greater than 0.  Is it enough to be statistically significant?  I sure as shit wish I knew and believed that there was someone out there without an agenda that I believed to tell me one way or another. 

[Newdoc 3440]

6 hours ago, Bevo said:

My father is an ENT and his feeling is don't get too caught up in the science and to accept that re-infections are possible. But my feeling is (putting it in layman's terms), your immune system was able to fight off the infection once. And once it is able to fight off an infection, your immune system remembers for some period of time, what response was necessary to stop the infection and will be able to stop reinfection. If this was not possible, vaccinations would not work. So, personally I am not worried at all about re-infection and I would assume that Newdoc and Chicago Doc would feel the same way. 

Yes, despite the ability to technically get infections again, there almost always remains some innate immune memory to make your body more efficient at fighting the virus unless you have a condition that significantly affects your immune system.

I have been bathed in kid germs for the last 15 years on a constant basis (like kids coughing on my unmasked face) and I maybe get sick for about three days every other year. I was initiated in med school while my wife was a pediatric ER nurse. I was sick every three months for a while.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

49 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Do you really think all those millennials packed into those now closed Austin bars over the past two weeks are gun-totin’ MAGA hat wearers?

Someone told me the same about Chicago shootings on another thread last week. People want to put a halo on anyone that is on their team and demean anyone that isn’t. 

[justhookit 4191]

5 hours ago, justhookit said:

Nueces County. That post was on Monday. We are now at 41 and 16 and the spike hasn’t even hit yet.

 

Oops. New numbers just came out. Hospitalizations up 23, ICU up 2. New cases 212 so that’s 3 days in a row over 200. Percent positive looks to be approaching 25%.

Edited June 26, 2020 by justhookit

[ABSR 5312]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

No, it doesn't. She is just saying that it happens occasionally. Why would we be shocked about that? And why do we think it would be inappropriate? The whole point of the Covid-19 areas is to isolate those patients from non-infected ones.

I think this kind of goes to getting more positive COVID results because you are testing more people.  You feel fine, break your arm, go to the hospital and test positive, so while asymptomatic and not there for COVID you go into those numbers.  They have to test as they don’t want someone positive in with those who are not infected, but it will push up the COVID numbers with people who would not have gone to the hospital for COVID otherwise.   My guess is that this happens but is not a large percent.

[Iceman 2710]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Tarrant County Covid19 occupied beds went down 40 today from 339 to 299 so we got that going for us....which is nice

Abbott gets results!!!

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

7 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Oops. New numbers just came out. Hospitalizations up 23, ICU up 2. New cases 212 so that’s 3 days in a row over 200. Percent positive looks to be approaching 25%.

25%. Good news... y’all gonna have herd immunity quick like. 

[BrickHorn 18234]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

25%. Good news... y’all gonna have herd immunity quick like. 

Ha. I always crack up at the notion that we can achieve herd immunity by letting the disease infect 80% of the population. “Hey, I know what will save us from widespread plague: widespread plague!”

[Js1 85337]

14 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Ha. I always crack up at the notion that we can achieve herd immunity by letting the disease infect 80% of the population. “Hey, I know what will save us from widespread plague: widespread plague!”

Also this notion that forcing herd immunity wouldn’t just lead to a lot of people getting sick at once and overwhelming resources. Which...

*waves hand*

HELLO

Edited June 26, 2020 by Js1

[NeverMarryAStripper 21907]

Not trying to be a bitch, but unless you get tested and see those results back on the same day, you can never be positive that you don't have SARS-CoV-2. 

Well that’s going to be true unless you get instantaneous results. I suppose you could even get it from the person giving you the test.

[atomheartbevo 89668]

4 hours ago, XYZ said:

If the trend continues, in another couple of weeks they’ll be at the red line, and then what? Field hospitals courtesy of the Army?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

24 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Ha. I always crack up at the notion that we can achieve herd immunity by letting the disease infect 80% of the population. “Hey, I know what will save us from widespread plague: widespread plague!”

It was sarcastic.  That number is awful. Didn’t read that way as sarcasm in retrospect. However, I have heard sometimes herd immunity can kick in at 40%-70%

Edited June 26, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[atomheartbevo 89668]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

The tests are 100% accurate 30% of the time.

So what are we doing?

[atomheartbevo 89668]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Do you really think all those millennials packed into those now closed Austin bars over the past two weeks are gun-totin’ MAGA hat wearers?

They are now that the bars were closed down.

[DDD Dad 14339]

3 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

CJ is a power hungry JWP water boy goofball. 

I don't disagree with this but he was still right to try to keep things limited longer.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Big Bend is a really shitty place to have a health emergency 

[mdleast 8289]

Big Bend is a really shitty place to have a health emergency 

This is one of several factors that have kept us from going anywhere this summer. It would be bad enough to get sick with COVID while out of town and having a long ride home. Would be even worse to have that happen in a place without the capacity to handle it.

[DDD Dad 14339]

This is one of several factors that have kept us from going anywhere this summer. It would be bad enough to get sick with COVID while out of town as the having a long ride home. Would be even worse to have that happen in a place without the capacity to handle it.

Yeah like Houston.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

That c ant be people getting it in big bend- right?  That’s got to be people that went to big bend as sick people and didn’t know it bc it was incubating- then the bomb went off and they got symptoms once they got there, right? 

[C-Man 27227]

15 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Big Bend is a really shitty place to have a health emergency 

My dad severely broke his ankle while hiking Big Bend with some buddies a few years ago. After being helped down the trail over a lengthy period of time he then got to "enjoy" a 90-minute or so ride to the hospital in Fort Stockton (I believe).

[DDD Dad 14339]

No, he wasn’t. It was a power move on his part. He’s been trying to hotdog shit like Cuomo in his “aw shucks” dipshit fashion. 

You can’t shut down the economy, and we won’t go backwards for long. This is our new normal and masks ought to be mandatory.  We probably won’t be attending any sporting events until we get a vax and I’ll limit my travel to cars and limited flying and wear masks everywhere I go. When we get a vax, it’ll mutate like influenza does. 

Having people sit in their homes with everything shut down was needed from March 20 - April 20. Beyond that it was ridiculous. The spike in cases is because of increased testing and people attending protests. The reason why people who say “it doesn’t matter if this is a second wave or not” are wrong. Because it’s not a second wave. It’s a continuation of the virus’s spread. When people say “it’s a second wave!” dipshits like Jenkins overreact, and if enough municipalities do that, the economy will suffer. The markets are already jittery off of this second wave bullshit.  

Abbott opened things up too fast and contrary to CDC recommended guidelines. There are all kinds of political aspects that I won’t discuss in this thread as to why, but leaving aside politics we are where we are because we opened up too much and too quickly.

 

We will just have to agree to disagree and both hope that we can weather this surge without overwhelming the hospitals.

[stork642 4498]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

Abbott gets results!!!

I’m pretty sure he only gets credit for the bad stuff.  

[BradInATX 9208]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

No, he wasn’t. It was a power move on his part. He’s been trying to hotdog shit like Cuomo in his “aw shucks” dipshit fashion. 

You can’t shut down the economy, and we won’t go backwards for long. This is our new normal and masks ought to be mandatory.  We probably won’t be attending any sporting events until we get a vax and I’ll limit my travel to cars and limited flying and wear masks everywhere I go. When we get a vax, it’ll mutate like influenza does. 

Having people sit in their homes with everything shut down was needed from March 20 - April 20. Beyond that it was ridiculous. The spike in cases is because of increased testing and people attending protests. The reason why people who say “it doesn’t matter if this is a second wave or not” are wrong. Because it’s not a second wave. It’s a continuation of the virus’s spread. When people say “it’s a second wave!” dipshits like Jenkins overreact, and if enough municipalities do that, the economy will suffer. The markets are already jittery off of this second wave bullshit.  

 

Does this guy always just spout a bunch of (mostly incorrect) opinions with the confidence of someone who is providing valid information? I'm quite impressed with the schtick but the actual substance is terrible.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[DougHdTx1968 37]

5 hours ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

LOL me dahati. That’s cute. Me and my family are the exact opposite of that. Did your Persian ex-girlfriend teach you that. 

is "dahati" Persian for "aids dick?"

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

I’m pretty tired of the arguing where either side of the debate is convinced they are correct. There’s lefitimately no right answer and it can’t be known before hand one way or another. 

Argue for draconian shutdown and you lessen the spread of the virus at the cost of huge economic damage. And people’s mental health. And suicides. And drug OD’s, and divorces, and and and. 

Open it all up and you are going to have more cases and more deaths from the corona. But yeah, there’s no right answer. When you pound the table for an outcome that would yield Great Depression economics you aren’t winning. When you pound the table for 100’s of thousands of deaths you aren’t winning. When you try to Goldielocks it you probably will fuck up and go too hot or too cold and what- 30 million unemployed and 100k deaths?  Is that a win?

There’s some obvious shit that needs to get done line sheltering olds and nursing homes and the like but beyond that you are arguing preferences, not right and wrong. 

 

[hobbes2702 13033]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m pretty tired of the arguing where either side of the debate is convinced they are correct. There’s lefitimately no right answer and it can’t be known before hand one way or another. 

Argue for draconian shutdown and you lessen the spread of the virus at the cost of huge economic damage. And people’s mental health. And suicides. And drug OD’s, and divorces, and and and. 

Open it all up and you are going to have more cases and more deaths from the corona. But yeah, there’s no right answer. When you pound the table for an outcome that would yield Great Depression economics you aren’t winning. When you pound the table for 100’s of thousands of deaths you aren’t winning. When you try to Goldielocks it you probably will fuck up and go too hot or too cold and what- 30 million unemployed and 100k deaths?  Is that a win?

There’s some obvious shit that needs to get done line sheltering olds and nursing homes and the like but beyond that you are arguing preferences, not right and wrong. 

 

Except both options lead to massive economic depression. So maybe we should try to keep people alive.

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We should shut down the economy again. Fuck it, go Full Greenspoint. 

That we should have been opening things back up but with full mask requirements everywhere is actually one of the things you said that's not pulled out of your ass. I agree with you on that.

Every time we sacrifice trillions in economic pain to bend the curve down, it's going to poof into thin air as soon as we loosen anything back up because a significant portion of our country are fucking morons who have turned refusing to wear a mask into a political/personal statement. We won't fix things until as a whole our populace accepts wearing masks as the new norm (until we have a cure or vaccine). Too bad the ship has already sailed on that. So we'll just piss away trillions every few months. Good job everyone.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[TornACL 7698]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We should shut down the economy again. Fuck it, go Full Greenspoint. 

The thing is, you wouldn't need the drastic measures if people were responsible and didn't confuse the desire of instant gratification with the responsibilities that come with freedom. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

San Antonio be fucked. 638 new cases yesterday. The past few weeks are a complete shit show and on a horrible, catastrophic trajectory.

I just got back from picking up a curbside order from HEB -- yes, they were open -- and it was unusually crowded in the parking lot. The girl loading the groceries told me that they were having another run with orders for the next day increasing quickly (even though I just checked the app and they still have a bunch of open slots tomorrow afternoon). I guess it's time to start hoarding toilet paper again and not being able to buy pasta. Just fucking great.

I am beyond frustrated with all of this. I have been living like a got dam monk for three months plus and shit is worse than ever, and getting rapidly more awful. I'm increasingly getting mad at myself for adhering to extreme social distancing, working from home, etc. On the plus side, I'm not sick and nobody in my family is sick. But what the fuck am I doing all this for so every asshole can irresponsibly do whatever they want, ultimately forcing everybody else back into this shit storm? People suck.

And to top it off, the school district sent out an email and in the next two weeks we have to choose whether our kids will distance learn or be on site in the fall. You have to pick one or the other, in the next two weeks. And the way I'm interpreting it is that you are stuck with that decision for the school year or at least the first semester. Really? Looking at that trend line above, I have a feeling that they are all going to have to move to distance learning regardless, but how in the blue fuck am I supposed to make that decision right now? My kids didn't learn shit in distance learning this spring. It was a terrible experience for them and for us. And now I get to choose between their educational and social development and rolling the dice with their/our health, with no option to change our mind based on how the virus progresses in the community.

Say ‘in person’ then back out if you want, saying you ended up with a health issue and your family has to quarantine.  Fuck those assholes.  

Edited June 27, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We should shut down the economy again. Fuck it, go Full Greenspoint. 

Chicago distancing and opening was far more strict.  They’re pretty blue around these parts and we are still opening things up.  Didn’t have to be this way for Texas.  Be pissed at whoever set policy in your state. 
 

Edit: and I did think they were too strict here.  But too strict beats too lax for this exact reason, you have to do it all over again.  

Edited June 27, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[stork642 4498]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m pretty tired of the arguing where either side of the debate is convinced they are correct. There’s lefitimately no right answer and it can’t be known before hand one way or another. 

Argue for draconian shutdown and you lessen the spread of the virus at the cost of huge economic damage. And people’s mental health. And suicides. And drug OD’s, and divorces, and and and. 

Open it all up and you are going to have more cases and more deaths from the corona. But yeah, there’s no right answer. When you pound the table for an outcome that would yield Great Depression economics you aren’t winning. When you pound the table for 100’s of thousands of deaths you aren’t winning. When you try to Goldielocks it you probably will fuck up and go too hot or too cold and what- 30 million unemployed and 100k deaths?  Is that a win?

There’s some obvious shit that needs to get done line sheltering olds and nursing homes and the like but beyond that you are arguing preferences, not right and wrong. 

 

But it feels so good to blame all of it on the other bad people who caused everything.  In reality it’s a shit sandwich and we’re all taking a big bite.  

Edited June 27, 2020 by stork642

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Except both options lead to massive economic depression. So maybe we should try to keep people alive.

There’s still gradiations.  And length of time matters as well on the lock downs economically. And lockdowns lead to suicides and OD’s as I mentioned. And financial ruin leads to shitty health outcomes. There’s not a correct answer there’s various grades of suck where moving the lever one direction leads to more pain and misery in the opposite directions. 

[BradInATX 9208]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I had physician friends at the outset of this deal tell me it was nothing to worry about and to NOT wear masks and chided me for cancelling our SB trip. I ignored them frankly out of an abundance of caution. Because we didn’t know. 

But after a month of watching markets plummet and unemployment skyrocket, and seeing the demographic of deaths, we should have opened back up MUCH sooner. That’s not political. That’s economic common sense. But we should’ve proceeded with much more caution.  Masks everywhere in public unless you’re taking a drink or bite of food. I’m not sure what I’ve said that’s controversial. 

The bar thing is a really tricky deal. We shouldn’t be permitted to go to bars unless it’s a private club where you can spread out, and/or there’s a restaurant involved. I agree with Abbott on his order today. 

I think the recent uptick is a defiant lack of masks, more testing, and protesting. 

 

I'd be fine with bars if everyone wore masks. I know full well that's basically impossible but if they could enforce it and invent some sort of beer helmet and mask combo that allowed you to pound cheap well drinks and beers at Treasure Island while keeping your mask on I'd be fine with it. But that's not going to happen.

The things I was addressing were the assertion that a vaccine won't work because the virus will mutate every year and your attributing all of the increases to the protests (I know you walked it back in this post some, but your first post pointed directly to the protests). The facts and data don't support either of those statements. Though I'm not really interested in rehashing the "it was the protests" arguments again. They've been thoroughly destroyed many times in these threads.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89668]

37 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

The spike in cases is because of increased testing and people attending protests.

Memorial Day.

And increased testing doesn't explain the rise in hospitalization rates, it simply shows us what's already there.

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

A vax will work great. The point I’m making is that it won’t be a panacea.  Because virus. 

I didn’t attribute the increases solely to protests. Protests were a big part of the problem as was opening up bars with lack of masks. Any large grouping of people without masks, and really in general, was absurd in hindsight. But, I also mentioned increased testing and general lack of masks. Do you disagree?

 

Fair enough on the vaccine.

"The spike in cases is because of increased testing and people attending protests" No mention of masks even though it's probably something like 90% responsible for the recent spikes (obviously the protests didn't generate zero cases, but they're not the primary driver). But now we're just parsing words and I'm not really in the mood for one of those type debates. I'm going to go get drunk.Cheers.

 

[Hook1997 5354]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

I'd be fine with bars if everyone wore masks. I know full well that's basically impossible but if they could enforce it and invent some sort of beer helmet and mask combo that allowed you to pound cheap well drinks and beers at Treasure Island while keeping your mask on I'd be fine with it. But that's not going to happen.

 

Treasure Island Sunday’s .25 cent drinks!  What a shit show that always turned into.   No way that place is still open?

[atomheartbevo 89668]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Good point on hospitalizations. But with bars opening and people congregating, young people are gonna pass it to older people.

And restaurants.  For the data nerds out there.

https://fortune.com/2020/06/26/is-it-safe-restaurant-coronavirus-cases-credit-cards-restaurants-jp-morgan-chase-covid-19-outbreaks/

Quote

A surge in restaurant spending appears to predict a surge in coronavirus cases weeks later, a new JPMorgan study found.

 

Quote

The firm analyzed spending by 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and coronavirus case data from Johns Hopkins University, and found that spending patterns from a few weeks ago "have some power in predicting where the virus has spread since then," analyst Jesse Edgerton wrote Thursday. The study found that the "level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks," in line with the firm's recent studies using OpenTable data.

 

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Notably, JPMorgan found that 'card-present' transactions in restaurants (meaning the person was dining in, not ordering online) were "particularly predictive" to a later spread of the virus.

 

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And interestingly, the JPMorgan study also found that increased spending in supermarkets correlated to a slower spread of the virus. Analyst Edgerton wrote that the correlation hints that "high levels of supermarket spending are indicative of more careful social distancing in a state." The firm pointed out that as of three weeks ago, supermarket spending in states like New York and New Jersey, which are now seeing a decrease in cases, was up 20% or more from a year ago, whereas states now seeing a surge like Texas and Arizona saw supermarket spending up less than 10%.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Hook1997 said:

Treasure Island Sunday’s .25 cent drinks!  What a shit show that always turned into.   No way that place is still open?

 

They are. Wife and I walked 6th for old time's sake about a year ago (daytime because I'm not trying to get stabbed). Didn't go in but it looked the exact same as I (kind of) remember. I actually was going to mention those 25 cent drinks but didn't want to be the old guy telling everyone about the good old days. We'd go in and knock back 4 of them, wash down with a beer and leave for greener pastures and better scenery.