COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And restaurants.  For the data nerds out there.

https://fortune.com/2020/06/26/is-it-safe-restaurant-coronavirus-cases-credit-cards-restaurants-jp-morgan-chase-covid-19-outbreaks/

 

 

 

 

That's really neat. I love when people use data to do cool shit. Glad you posted that.

I wonder if bars get classified as "Restaurants". I think if you look at my Wells Fargo spending breakdown, they end up getting put into the restaurants category.

Actually I have a chase credit card, I can look. Edit: Bars and Restaurants get grouped into "food and drink" so I assume when they say "Restaurants" they're using that category which would include bars.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[DDD Dad 14167]

The spike in testing is a canard. Testing is not increasing at any rate remotely approaching the increase in positives. And of course it has nothing to do with hospitalizations.

 

I’ll leave for another thread the implied CR commentary regarding protests except to say that one need only look at states other than Texas whose rates are not surging who had significant protests but had not reopened their economies as widely as we did.

 

Look, I get it. We have to “do the dance” unless and until we find a vaccine. That means an uptick with each incremental opening followed by clamping down to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.

 

But we opened the tap too widely and too quickly this time. Hopefully we can get this back under control and then more prudently open things up in the future.

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Don’t fucking tell me Cheers unless you’re a Brit. I failed to mention in one post the lack of masks. I mentioned it in every other post. Cmon dude. 

Alright then. Slainte, you whiny bitch. Better?

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Will read tonight but fuck that. Every restaurant I’ve been to, and it’s been a lot, has been ultra safe and spread out. 

People trusting extremely limited anecdotal personal experiences over science and empirical evidence is part of the reason this country is so fucking stupid in 2020. Don't be part of the problem, Rex Kramer. #Cheers

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[JBJ 3647]

25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And restaurants.  For the data nerds out there.

https://fortune.com/2020/06/26/is-it-safe-restaurant-coronavirus-cases-credit-cards-restaurants-jp-morgan-chase-covid-19-outbreaks/

Causation and correation.  It's probably not restaurants themselves, but "a return to normalcy" driving both numbers up.

[Bevo 13493]

24 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

The spike in testing is a canard. Testing is not increasing at any rate remotely approaching the increase in positives. And of course it has nothing to do with hospitalizations.

 

I’ll leave for another thread the implied CR commentary regarding protests except to say that one need only look at states other than Texas whose rates are not surging who had significant protests but had not reopened their economies as widely as we did.

 

Look, I get it. We have to “do the dance” unless and until we find a vaccine. That means an uptick with each incremental opening followed by clamping down to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.

 

But we opened the tap too widely and too quickly this time. Hopefully we can get this back under control and then more prudently open things up in the future.

I kind of disagree. Here in Texas, I think we may have been a little quick on the draw. I would have liked to have seen more cases (maybe 2-3 more weeks worth) before we locked down the first time. With doing it as early as we did, and assuming we shut down again soon, there could be a few more major spikes before cases dwindle. If there were more cases the first time, and fewer this go round, I think we would be through the worst of it and could pretty much be back to normal in the fall. Anyway, my comments as yours are pretty much conjecture.

The upside to having clamped down the first time before a major outbreak was that it gave physicians more time to improve treatment. So even though there is a large outbreak currently, mortality should remain fairly tame at least compared to what we would have experienced if the outbreak happened earlier in the year. There are trade-offs between nearly all decisions during this pandemic.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Bevo

[DDD Dad 14167]

I kind of disagree. Here in Texas, I think we may have been a little quick on the draw. I would have liked to have seen more cases (maybe 2-3 more weeks worth) before we locked down the first time. With doing it as early as we did, and assuming we shut down again soon, there could be a few more major spikes before cases dwindle. If there were more cases the first time, and fewer this go round, I think we would be through the worst of it and could pretty much be back to normal in the fall. Anyway, my comments as yours are pretty much conjecture.

I don’t really have an opinion on whether we closed down too soon. I do think we probably closed down too severely but only in hindsight. I don’t think it’s fair to second guess given how little we knew at the time.

I continue to believe we could have gradually reopened and prevented the current spike we are seeing. My concern is that the measures we are putting in place now are insufficient to staunch the flow of cases. I hope I’m wrong and look forward to eating crow in a few weeks if so.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11796]

27 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

The spike in testing is a canard. Testing is not increasing at any rate remotely approaching the increase in positives. And of course it has nothing to do with hospitalizations.

 

I’ll leave for another thread the implied CR commentary regarding protests except to say that one need only look at states other than Texas whose rates are not surging who had significant protests but had not reopened their economies as widely as we did.

 

Look, I get it. We have to “do the dance” unless and until we find a vaccine. That means an uptick with each incremental opening followed by clamping down to keep from overwhelming the hospitals.

 

But we opened the tap too widely and too quickly this time. Hopefully we can get this back under control and then more prudently open things up in the future.

I think the chances of a vaccine are slim to none.  Nobody has developed any vaccines for SARS, or MERS, or any other coronavirus.  If they did, it would go over about like mask wearing.

[DDD Dad 14167]

I think the chances of a vaccine are slim to none.  Nobody has developed any vaccines for SARS, or MERS, or any other coronavirus.  If they did, it would go over about like mask wearing.

Then we will do the dance until we reach herd immunity. Prepare for a new normal over the next 4-5 years.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11796]

1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

Then we will do the dance until we reach herd immunity. Prepare for a new normal over the next 4-5 years.

That is my worst case scenario, and probably the most likely one.

[Nicole44 22023]

 

[Bevo 13493]

3 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I think the chances of a vaccine are slim to none.  Nobody has developed any vaccines for SARS, or MERS, or any other coronavirus.  If they did, it would go over about like mask wearing.

I disagree with this. Developing a vaccine against this coronavirus won't be that difficult because it doesn't mutate that quickly. There are no vaccines for SARS and MERS because there hasn't been a big need for it so pharmaceutical companies couldn't make money developing it. By the time biotech companies and academia had candidates the viruses had pretty much already burned out so pharmaceutical companies had no appetite to purchase them and further their development.

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

6 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Then we will do the dance until we reach herd immunity. Prepare for a new normal over the next 4-5 years.

There's very little chance immunity will last more than 12-18 months.  So getting herd immunity for us all over the course of a couple shitty years is a pipedream.  I mean, it could happen, but just very low odds.  

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

10 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

I think the chances of a vaccine are slim to none.  Nobody has developed any vaccines for SARS, or MERS, or any other coronavirus.  If they did, it would go over about like mask wearing.

I don't see that at all.  Several trials are going well.  There has never been an effort or pot of gold for vaccine development like there is now.  And if the odds were slim to none we'd definitely be hearing about trials crashing and burning - that's not happening. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18517]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Say ‘in person’ then back out if you want, saying you ended up with a health issue and your family has to quarantine.  Fuck those assholes.  

Yeah... I came to the exact same conclusion shortly after I posted. What are they going to do, make my kids go to school in the middle of a public health crisis when my wife has newly discovered underlying health issues?

Fuck those assholes is right. It was going to be too difficult or too much work for them to figure out some hybrid or flexible system. So it's going to be hilarious when every parent chooses to send their kid to school right now and then they get fucked over in the fall trying to switch it up on the fly. And I promise you, that is exactly what's going to happen. 

[Somnio 751]

1 hour ago, stork642 said:

But it feels so good to blame all of it on the other bad people who caused everything.  In reality it’s a shit sandwich and we’re all taking a big bite.  

Exactly.  We knew months ago this was going to be terrible.  There was no way around that fact.  I don't understand why anyone is surprised.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

5 hours ago, trauma babe said:

Not trying to be a bitch, but unless you get tested and see those results back on the same day, you can never be positive that you don't have SARS-CoV-2. 

Nope you're right but since none of my family have any of the symptoms of Covid, going somewhere to get tested right now where sick people are doesn't seem prudent. In addition I am not sure a point in time test really helps me given that there are no symptoms. Moment I go to grocery store or interact with anyone outside my bubble I am at risk again and would need to get tested again. etc etc etc

 

 

[smoky 837]

For those that get hospitalized, what's the average timeline on infected-> feeling sick -> in the hospital?

How quickly do they go downhill?  What's the average length of a hospital stay?

Edited June 27, 2020 by smoky

[Homercles 10205]

Costco was out of TP today.  Asked the guy at the door when they restock, he said everyday but noted they tend to run out at opening due to the early opening for at risk folks.  
 

I left pissed we are about to do this all over again and wondered why a bunch of seniors with 1-2 people per household need to stock up on toilet paper...sucks as I currently have 3 adults and 2 young kids at my house, we use a lot of it as my 3yo is finally just now getting the hang of pooping in the potty.  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11796]

41 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I don't see that at all.  Several trials are going well.  There has never been an effort or pot of gold for vaccine development like there is now.  And if the odds were slim to none we'd definitely be hearing about trials crashing and burning - that's not happening. 

Hopefully you’re right.  Even if you are there will be a substantial amount of people who refuse to take it.  Because there is no vaccine for stupid.

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

6 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Hopefully you’re right.  Even if you are there will be a substantial amount of people who refuse to take it.  Because there is no vaccine for stupid.

Yes the holy grail is a vaccine for stupid.  I don't have my hopes up for that one.  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11796]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes the holy grail is a vaccine for stupid.  I don't have my hopes up for that one.  

It’s called birth control, but the conundrum is the same.

[texashorne 1177]

1 hour ago, stork642 said:

But it feels so good to blame all of it on the other bad people who caused everything.  In reality it’s a shit sandwich and we’re all taking a big bite.  

Yep. Our neighbor came over and took a shit on our kitchen table, and now we are yelling at our wives for not cleaning it up right. 

 

[stork642 4498]

6 minutes ago, texashorne said:

Yep. Our neighbor came over and took a shit on our kitchen table, and now we are yelling at our wives for not cleaning it up right. 

 

I don’t think we as a society have the intestinal fortitude to deal with something that can’t be blamed on someone else.  It’s a fucking pandemic and everyone wants to do what we can to survive but unfortunately virus’s kill people.  This didn’t start in 2020 and it damn sure won’t end after this year.  Buckle up bitches!

Edited June 27, 2020 by stork642

[CycleTex87 2953]

I quit watching any TV news so get all of my COVID info here, thanks guys. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

7 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

He should have proclaimed state open for business and should have long before he did, and I’m not sure about your local authority overrule comment. Jenkins sure tried to flex his muscle over Abbott. And those of us in Dallas County suffered as a result. 

No idea about his take on masks, and if he did that was idiotic, but I don’t like the cut of your jib  

Rex, it doesn’t sound like you know what the fuck you’re talking about. 

[Captain Ron 12789]

2 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

The spike in testing is a canard. Testing is not increasing at any rate remotely approaching the increase in positives. And of course it has nothing to do with hospitalizations.

This. If this was increased testing the positivity rate would be level, it isn’t. The positivity rate is going up. It’s called exponential spread, and it’s going to outpace any testing.

From the outside looking in:

1. Texas opened too soon. There was little indication April 27 that Texas’s spread has slowed enough to justify reopening at that time. While spread had receded SLIGHTLY it wasn’t on a major downward projection. Certainly not a trend  

2. Texas opened way too quickly. There was never time to watch the results of each stage of reopening. Hell during reopening phase 1, spread increased. It took a dip right after phase 2 went into effect, but has climbed steadily since Memorial Day, once the mass went critical and BOOM.

Don't forget, you’re always 2 weeks behind this thing. The cases being contracted today will be counted in 2 weeks. And it will be spreading the same way as it is now. Does Texas need to use the Nuclear option? Maybe, maybe not. But they need to take major steps, and a statewide masks order would help. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4656]

These Rex Kramer posts are absolutely primo. God speed, my friends.

[bluto 4873]

This. If this was increased testing the positivity rate would be level, it isn’t. The positivity rate is going up. It’s called exponential spread, and it’s going to outpace any testing.
From the outside looking in:
1. Texas opened too soon. There was little indication April 27 that Texas’s spread has slowed enough to justify reopening at that time. While spread had receded SLIGHTLY it wasn’t on a major downward projection. Certainly not a trend  
2. Texas opened way too quickly. There was never time to watch the results of each stage of reopening. Hell during reopening phase 1, spread increased. It took a dip right after phase 2 went into effect, but has climbed steadily since Memorial Day, once the mass went critical and BOOM.
Don't forget, you’re always 2 weeks behind this thing. The cases being contracted today will be counted in 2 weeks. And it will be spreading the same way as it is now. Does Texas need to use the Nuclear option? Maybe, maybe not. But they need to take major steps, and a statewide masks order would help. 

Agree on the too quickly aspect, 2 weeks between stages was just lip service. Especially with a major natl holiday in the mix.

[G650 13990]

9 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Don’t fucking tell me Cheers unless you’re a Brit. I failed to mention in one post the lack of masks. I mentioned it in every other post. Cmon dude. 

You silly cunt.

[VolenteHawk 495]

9 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

This. If this was increased testing the positivity rate would be level, it isn’t. The positivity rate is going up. It’s called exponential spread, and it’s going to outpace any testing.

From the outside looking in:

1. Texas opened too soon. There was little indication April 27 that Texas’s spread has slowed enough to justify reopening at that time. While spread had receded SLIGHTLY it wasn’t on a major downward projection. Certainly not a trend  

2. Texas opened way too quickly. There was never time to watch the results of each stage of reopening. Hell during reopening phase 1, spread increased. It took a dip right after phase 2 went into effect, but has climbed steadily since Memorial Day, once the mass went critical and BOOM.

Don't forget, you’re always 2 weeks behind this thing. The cases being contracted today will be counted in 2 weeks. And it will be spreading the same way as it is now. Does Texas need to use the Nuclear option? Maybe, maybe not. But they need to take major steps, and a statewide masks order would help. 

Too quickly yes, too soon...nah. Texas never had a reduction in cases, because we never had a first spike. Cases drifted up during the lockdown to a constant-ish daily rate that corresponded to our definition of essential business. If we had opened up the same way, I don’t think it matters if that was Memorial Day or the 4th of July...a spike was coming.

Edited June 27, 2020 by VolenteHawk

[BrazilHorn 6576]

I need to dig into the age of folks being hospitalized more. 
It’s being reported that young people responsible for surge and then they give to grandma. 
unfortunately Austin doesn’t report cases where person is obese or has underlying condition both of which had been large drivers of hospitalizations. 
 

[Sawbonz 27375]

12 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

Fair enough on the vaccine.

"The spike in cases is because of increased testing and people attending protests" No mention of masks even though it's probably something like 90% responsible for the recent spikes (obviously the protests didn't generate zero cases, but they're not the primary driver). But now we're just parsing words and I'm not really in the mood for one of those type debates. I'm going to go get drunk.Cheers.

 

Talking about increased testing without noting that the percentage of positive tests is going up is dumb. 
 

also 

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I need to dig into the age of folks being hospitalized more. 
It’s being reported that young people responsible for surge and then they give to grandma. 
unfortunately Austin doesn’t report cases where person is obese or has underlying condition both of which had been large drivers of hospitalizations. 
 

The recent trends, in Travis County at least, are younger people getting hospitalized. Whites and Hispanics are getting hospitalized at a higher increased rate than other races.

Edited June 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[Sawbonz 27375]

11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes the holy grail is a vaccine for stupid.  I don't have my hopes up for that one.  

Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of them are stupider than that ~Carlin 

[Eastwood 4394]

I’m bombed. Will read the article tomorrow with a clear head and if I’m wrong with the 2-3 restaurants I’ve frequented (a lot), I’ll stop going. Not Rex. Christ. 

It's being reported by several anonymous restaurant workers that large portions of their staff are testing positive and they aren't shutting down. They aren't even skipping a beat and the worst offenders are asking their staff to come in symptomatic. Symptomatic with this virus varies wildly. It could be anywhere from a light cough to ICU. So, if you're willing to roll the dice that the restaurant is following guidelines and being honest with their reporting and methods, by all means, roll the dice. But I'm way more concerned about other people's hubris, stupidity, and malice rather than the virus itself.

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

32 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The recent trends, in Travis County at least, are younger people getting hospitalized. Whites and Hispanics are getting hospitalized at a higher increased rate than other races.

Just pulled it into a table (to be fair hospitalizations from TCAD site are week of 6/8 to 6/14) so it may be better just to look at cases vs deaths.

Here is breakdown. The chart shows by age band the % of cases (total reported), Deaths (total reported) & hospitalizations (w/o June 8 to June 14) I will start looking at the age based hospitalizations weekly going forward and update accordingly.

End of day this is still a killer of old people. People over 80 make up 2.89% of call cases yet account for 36.7% of deaths. If you expand that to 60+ you get 12.85% of cases and 85.32% of deaths.

It will be interesting to see as cases in young people are spiking what happens.

[ABSR 5289]

12 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Then we will do the dance until we reach herd immunity. Prepare for a new normal over the next 4-5 years.

Does the question then become how can we achieve herd immunity in the quickest manner that does not overwhelm our healthcare system?

I think in person schooling is one of the better ways as it will expose a large number of people who are at the lowest risk.  The problem is for those kids who go home to someone who is at higher risk or for teachers, administrators, janitors, etc who are at higher risk.   For school aged kids, without preexisting conditions,  the mortality threat to them is greater for the flu than for Covid.   So if we treat cases in school like the flu where we have kids not come or go home, but we don’t force quarantine for those they may have contacted (classes keep going) we would get more herd immunity in a “safer” group of the population.

We also need to have remote learning available for those who are at risk or who family at risk...or for teachers and admin with the same.

Keep protecting nursing homes and elderly populations, do as much remote work as possible, have mask use be standard practice, and limit very large gatherings (except football. Need football).
 

But shelter in place or draconian restrictions for 4-5:years won’t work.  It will kill the economy and our ability to live, and we will have massive push back.

[bluto 4873]

Does the question then become how can we achieve herd immunity in the quickest manner that does not overwhelm our healthcare system?

I think in person schooling is one of the better ways as it will expose a large number of people who are at the lowest risk.  The problem is for those kids who go home to someone who is at higher risk or for teachers, administrators, janitors, etc who are at higher risk.   For school aged kids, without preexisting conditions,  the mortality threat to them is greater for the flu than for Covid.   So if we treat cases in school like the flu where we have kids not come or go home, but we don’t force quarantine for those they may have contacted (classes keep going) we would get more herd immunity in a “safer” group of the population.

We also need to have remote learning available for those who are at risk or who family at risk...or for teachers and admin with the same.

Keep protecting nursing homes and elderly populations, do as much remote work as possible, have mask use be standard practice, and limit very large gatherings (except football. Need football).

 

But shelter in place or draconian restrictions for 4-5:years won’t work.  It will kill the economy and our ability to live, and we will have massive push back.

As of today, there seems to be a playbook for this. Europe and East Asia (even Canada to a lesser extent) are pretty well open again with manageable case loads. admittedly there’s a long way to go on it on how their strategies play out, but where we stand so far seems to pale in comparison.

 

And again, as of today, herd immunity via spread is a damn tough ask when the long term impact of the disease in even the light to moderate symptomatic infections is unknown.

[Telegraph_it 3353]

The hospital my sister is a nurse at in Austin is a full Covid unit now. She said Seton is the same. 

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

As of today, there seems to be a playbook for this. Europe and East Asia (even Canada) are pretty well open again with manageable case loads. admittedly there’s a long way to go on it on how their strategies play out, but where we stand so far seems to pale in comparison.

And again, as of today, herd immunity via spread is a damn tough ask when the long term impact of the disease in even the light to moderate symptomatic infections is unknown.

Great post

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

21 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Does the question then become how can we achieve herd immunity in the quickest manner that does not overwhelm our healthcare system?

I think in person schooling is one of the better ways as it will expose a large number of people who are at the lowest risk.  The problem is for those kids who go home to someone who is at higher risk or for teachers, administrators, janitors, etc who are at higher risk.   For school aged kids, without preexisting conditions,  the mortality threat to them is greater for the flu than for Covid.   So if we treat cases in school like the flu where we have kids not come or go home, but we don’t force quarantine for those they may have contacted (classes keep going) we would get more herd immunity in a “safer” group of the population.

We also need to have remote learning available for those who are at risk or who family at risk...or for teachers and admin with the same.

Keep protecting nursing homes and elderly populations, do as much remote work as possible, have mask use be standard practice, and limit very large gatherings (except football. Need football).
 

But shelter in place or draconian restrictions for 4-5:years won’t work.  It will kill the economy and our ability to live, and we will have massive push back.

So what does someone like me do?  I have two kids entering 9th grade, but we live with my 70+ MIL who can no longer care for herself, has heart issues and takes immunosuppressive drugs?  Stick her ass in a nursing home?

What about my wife and me?  She has a minor heart mumur.  I have very minor hypertension (exacerbated by this thread) and had one asthma attack at the age of 13.  Just see what happens?

Another thing. This idea of “you let you kids go to school during flu season, for them it’s the same” assumes you know a shit ton more than actual about how this virus will behave amongst a petri dish of schoolchildren.  Flu has been around for thousands of years.  We know what it does.  This thing, eight to ten months tops. Does it matter that my kids have A+ blood?  That they were born premature?  That my otherwise completely healthy daughter gets strep just by thinking about it?  

Until you know all those things, using children as a vector for herd immunity because it seems like a good plan is incredibly irresponsible.  

[Anastasis 23375]

New Texas focused dashboard to follow.  Some different presentations of the data here that I have not seen on other dashboards.

https://sph.uth.edu/dept/bads/covid19-dashboard

 

[TwiceHorn 31184]

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

It's being reported by several anonymous restaurant workers that large portions of their staff are testing positive and they aren't shutting down. They aren't even skipping a beat and the worst offenders are asking their staff to come in symptomatic. Symptomatic with this virus varies wildly. It could be anywhere from a light cough to ICU. So, if you're willing to roll the dice that the restaurant is following guidelines and being honest with their reporting and methods, by all means, roll the dice. But I'm way more concerned about other people's hubris, stupidity, and malice rather than the virus itself.

 

It occurs to me that a lot of restaurant workers are probably in very high risk groups for a variety of reasons (poverty/need to work, limited access to healthcare, living conditions that don't promote social distancing, etc.).  It may not apply strictly to the maitre d'haute, or the waitstaff, or the chefs, but a lot of the rest are probably C-19 incubators.

[Guest Lobo]

And remember folks, a popped collar on a vineyard vines polo is no substitute for a proper fitting mask.  

[smoky 837]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

New Texas focused dashboard to follow.  Some different presentations of the data here that I have not seen on other dashboards.

https://sph.uth.edu/dept/bads/covid19-dashboard

 

Some nice views where they mixed in re-opening timelines, but I'd still like to see things like age & hospitalizations mixed into the counts and also go down to zip code level for each county.

[smoky 837]

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So what does someone like me do?  I have two kids entering 9th grade, but we live with my 70+ MIL who can no longer care for herself, has heart issues and takes immunosuppressive drugs?  Stick her ass in a nursing home?

What about my wife and me?  She has a minor heart mumur.  I have very minor hypertension (exacerbated by this thread) and had one asthma attack at the age of 13.  Just see what happens?

Another thing. This idea of “you let you kids go to school during flu season, for them it’s the same” assumes you know a shit ton more than actual about how this virus will behave amongst a petri dish of schoolchildren.  Flu has been around for thousands of years.  We know what it does.  This thing, eight to ten months tops. Does it matter that my kids have A+ blood?  That they were born premature?  That my otherwise completely healthy daughter gets strep just by thinking about it?  

Until you know all those things, using children as a vector for herd immunity because it seems like a good plan is incredibly irresponsible.  

I would think for folks in your situation, school districts would need to provide remote learning for your 9th graders as that would be the safest option for your family until a vaccine is developed. 

Same would go for teachers with pre-existing conditions.  You match up those teachers to virtually teach the students who need to stay home.

[justhookit 4174]

18 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

It occurs to me that a lot of restaurant workers are probably in very high risk groups for a variety of reasons (poverty/need to work, limited access to healthcare, living conditions that don't promote social distancing, etc.).  It may not apply strictly to the maitre d'haute, or the waitstaff, or the chefs, but a lot of the rest are probably C-19 incubators.

They also skew younger and single and typically spend a lot of their time after work in bars. So yeah.

[Captain Ron 12789]

1 hour ago, VolenteHawk said:

Too quickly yes, too soon...nah. Texas never had a reduction in cases, because we never had a first spike. Cases drifted up during the lockdown to a constant-ish daily rate that corresponded to our definition of essential business. If we had opened up the same way, I don’t think it matters if that was Memorial Day or the 4th of July...a spike was coming.

 

On the too soon, I disagree.

I agree that Texas hadn't spiked because of quick action to prevent spread.

But just because there wasn't a spike, it's not like you guys were spared. You had ~30K cases when the reopen started. Along with that, you had yet to "flatten the curve".

Everyone sees growth post "shut down" because of how this spread pre-symptomatically, we are 2 weeks behind it. And when you look at any state that has "controlled" growth, they saw cases continue to climb a month after shut down before flattening the curve really started.

 That is based on the following data sources:

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

I would also say that this being inevitable? No way. Again, look at any controlled state, NY, NJ, Mass, Penn - they haven't seen spikes post Memorial Day.

* Looking at the Texas data, IMHO there is a very slight downturn of total cases in early April, which looks like the spike prevention from shutting down. You can also make out a slight downturn in mid/late May which looks like the beginning of maybe flattening the curve, before it just blows up.

[Captain Ron 12789]

56 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

New Texas focused dashboard to follow.  Some different presentations of the data here that I have not seen on other dashboards.

https://sph.uth.edu/dept/bads/covid19-dashboard

 

 

Love the graph on testing vs cases which totally blows a hole in the case of anyone saying 'Increased testing! Increased testing!'

The projected case count is downright scary stuff too. With those numbers, that would put Texas on the doorstep of 200K cases by the July 5th.