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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

15,000 people work at the FDA.  Statistically speaking, 30 hit their retirement date every single month.  Even without the added pressures to the job of the last 20 months.  

I'd be more shocked if nobody was retiring.  

Lee Iacocca said it best (to some effect) when a few executives retired from Chrysler in the early 90's.  "Yeah, we have 100,000 employees...every month a couple guys hit 65.  It happens.  We don't have a used car lot for old managers."  

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bolverk

bolverk 29360

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

I'm curious as to the media play on this when NYC gets a massive surge while firing thousands of nurses and hospital staff due to the vaccine mandate.

Doubtful they have a massive wave with Delta. The data show them to likely be over the hump and they've fared pretty damn well. You should note that they have a high vaccination rate.

image.thumb.png.74eb57f6b7270cd29b849a0258963622.png

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-covid-cases.html

1 hour ago, Satoshi said:

That’s easy. It’s the fault of the unvaccinated.  

It'd absolutely be 100% the fault of the unvaccinated, GRU.

32 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

If the media even talks about it.

BuT mUh MeDiAh!!!

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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342 cases today for Travis County. Still skewing younger as it has the past couple of months. The 7 day moving average from this same day last week has dropped ~70 cases so we are seeing a favorable trend in terms of case counts.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/29 vs 9/28 6 43 47 64 66 56 30 19 9 2 342
% of Daily Change 1.75% 12.57% 13.74% 18.71% 19.30% 16.37% 8.77% 5.56% 2.63% 0.58%  
% of Total Cases 0.75% 5.57% 11.34% 25.23% 20.75% 14.64% 10.62% 6.28% 2.99% 1.83%  
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

342 cases today for Travis County. Still skewing younger as it has the past couple of months. The 7 day moving average from this same day last week has dropped ~70 cases so we are seeing a favorable trend in terms of case counts.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/29 vs 9/28 6 43 47 64 66 56 30 19 9 2 342
% of Daily Change 1.75% 12.57% 13.74% 18.71% 19.30% 16.37% 8.77% 5.56% 2.63% 0.58%  
% of Total Cases 0.75% 5.57% 11.34% 25.23% 20.75% 14.64% 10.62% 6.28% 2.99% 1.83%  

New hospitalizations as well as on ICU and Vent numbers dropping. Does your death data suggest that they are drops in ICU numbers are celestial discharges?  Either way, would appear that ICU strain is hopefully lessening. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Anastasis said:

New hospitalizations as well as on ICU and Vent numbers dropping. Does your death data suggest that they are drops in ICU numbers are celestial discharges?  Either way, would appear that ICU strain is hopefully lessening. 

We have been running in the low to mid 30s on deaths for 4 straight weeks and I expect this trend to continue for a couple of more as deaths (obviously( lag cases. For example Aug 6th week end we had 3 deaths, this last week 33. There will continue to be some celestial discharges as the ICU load drops both due to those folks in it dying as well as new cases (hopefully) continuing to trend downwards.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

Posted
Posted

315 cases in Travis County (62 more than same day last week). Saw a slight jump in ICU & Vents today as well vs yesterday. Still on a total week to date basis lower than last week across the board.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/30 vs 9/29 3 38 41 51 61 55 33 23 9 1 315
% of Daily Change 0.95% 12.06% 13.02% 16.19% 19.37% 17.46% 10.48% 7.30% 2.86% 0.32%  
% of Total Cases 0.76% 5.59% 11.34% 25.21% 20.75% 14.64% 10.62% 6.29% 2.98% 1.83%  
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23375

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

315 cases in Travis County (62 more than same day last week). Saw a slight jump in ICU & Vents today as well vs yesterday. Still on a total week to date basis lower than last week across the board.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 9/30 vs 9/29 3 38 41 51 61 55 33 23 9 1 315
% of Daily Change 0.95% 12.06% 13.02% 16.19% 19.37% 17.46% 10.48% 7.30% 2.86% 0.32%  
% of Total Cases 0.76% 5.59% 11.34% 25.21% 20.75% 14.64% 10.62% 6.29% 2.98% 1.83%  

On bright side, new admit @ 29, putting 7 day average at 29.7 and we are now back in stage 3, hopefully not just a short visit. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6088

Posted
Posted

Im not following near as closely as I used to but at a high level in Dallas, it seems case count has stayed relatively static this month while hospitalizations have definitely fallen off.  I can't really seem to find a good trailing 1 or 2 week average chart to confirm case count but every time I see the judge tweet stats, cases seem to be somewhere between 900-1200 give or take.  And the hospitalization charts definitely several weeks back.  I wonder if we just hit a point where Delta is continuing to spread through the community but enough have antibodies (vax or natural) that hospitalizations aren't keeping up.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2711

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Skipper said:

Im not following near as closely as I used to but at a high level in Dallas, it seems case count has stayed relatively static this month while hospitalizations have definitely fallen off.  I can't really seem to find a good trailing 1 or 2 week average chart to confirm case count but every time I see the judge tweet stats, cases seem to be somewhere between 900-1200 give or take.  And the hospitalization charts definitely several weeks back.  I wonder if we just hit a point where Delta is continuing to spread through the community but enough have antibodies (vax or natural) that hospitalizations aren't keeping up.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2021-COVID-19-Summaries/CV19-Summaries-09-2021/DCHHS COVID-19 Summary 09 24 2021.pdf

This is updated every Friday.  It still doesn't give you exactly what you're looking for but it does show case counts by date of collection (peak looks to be back around mid August).  Today's update isn't posted yet

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Skipper

Skipper 6088

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Posted
1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2021-COVID-19-Summaries/CV19-Summaries-09-2021/DCHHS COVID-19 Summary 09 24 2021.pdf

This is updated every Friday.  It still doesn't give you exactly what you're looking for but it does show case counts by date of collection (peak looks to be back around mid August).  Today's update isn't posted yet

This is great.  Thanks.  I had a site linked with similar data that stopped reporting about a year ago so they must have moved it here.  The jump from mid to late July is pretty crazy.  I'm going to guess we're holding steady around 900/1000 cases daily.  Hopefully that starts dropping over the course of October.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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I am loving being wrong today in regards to deaths for Travis County for w/e 10/1. I was expecting to see in low 30s for a couple of more weeks based on case backlog etc but only 14 deaths (vs 33 last week). First week below 30 since week ending 8/27.

Distribution by age was as follows:

30 to 39 (1)

40 to 49 (4)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (3)

70 to 79 (2)

80+ (2)

In terms of cases today only 244 (slightly lower than last Friday). Have a good weekend all. I will be at baseball tournament in morning and football in afternoon for kids. Here's looking forward to the Horns kicking TCU's ass.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 10/1 vs 9/30 2 33 28 52 54 32 19 11 7 6 244
% of Daily Change 0.82% 13.52% 11.48% 21.31% 22.13% 13.11% 7.79% 4.51% 2.87% 2.46%  
% of Total Cases 0.76% 5.61% 11.34% 25.20% 20.75% 14.64% 10.61% 6.28% 2.98% 1.83%  
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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2711

Posted
Posted
This is great.  Thanks.  I had a site linked with similar data that stopped reporting about a year ago so they must have moved it here.  The jump from mid to late July is pretty crazy.  I'm going to guess we're holding steady around 900/1000 cases daily.  Hopefully that starts dropping over the course of October.

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2021-COVID-19-Summaries/CV19-Summaries-10-2021/DCHHS%20COVID-19%20Summary%2010%2001%202021.pdf
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted
23 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

700,000 Americans have died from COVID. 

So what do you lose from a normal flu in 18 months?  50,000?  

So what you're saying is COVID at 700,000 was worse than the flu?  A "Bad Flu" then?  So it's just like they said.  700,000 deaths is more bad than 50,000 deaths.  So it was technically "Like a Bad Flu."  What's so hard for people to comprehend about this?  50,000 flu deaths=bad.  700,000 COVID deaths=like a more bad. 

Trust me, I'm Pre-Science. 

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

there's some good news mixed in there, thanks for posting.  That number of ICU beds is a marked improvement from where we were a couple weeks ago but it's cold comfort to a state with 30mm people in it and just 500 ICU beds.  Fully vacc'd number continues to be embarrassing beyond belief.  But cases and overall hospitalizations trending correctly.  Nice.  

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

I think Travis county's stay in Stage 3 is going to be a brief one.  The numbers don't seem to be dropping at the rate you'd want.

Looks like to me cases and hospitalizations are falling just like they did with the last two waves.  But I do think we'll be back up to stage 4/5 soon enough with a large winter wave.  Just the way this thing rolls.  

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OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys

OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2056

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Looks like to me cases and hospitalizations are falling just like they did with the last two waves.  But I do think we'll be back up to stage 4/5 soon enough with a large winter wave.  Just the way this thing rolls.  

Untitled

Untitled-1

i've just noticed that the last entry on new admits has been at or above the 7 day moving average for the last couple of days, at least according to the travis county dashboard, although it doesn't look like it on your chart.  

 

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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280 cases today (plus weekend) for Travis County which is slightly lower than last Monday/Weekend. Hospitalizations are at 307 and hopefully this time tomorrow we will be under 300 for first time in a while on that front.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 10/4 vs 10/1 1 37 33 53 65 32 30 18 7 4 280
% of Daily Change 0.36% 13.21% 11.79% 18.93% 23.21% 11.43% 10.71% 6.43% 2.50% 1.43%  
% of Total Cases 0.75% 5.62% 11.34% 25.18% 20.75% 14.63% 10.61% 6.28% 2.98% 1.83%  
                   
                     
                     
                     
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Despite billions of dollars of research, Death does continue to be the nation's #1 killer of Americans.  Although there is no known treatment or vaccine for death, you can acquaint yourself with the early warning signs of death.  

1) Rigor Mortis

2) A rotting smell

3) Occassional drowsiness

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