COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6576]

241 cases in Travis County today (including weekend). Not too bad and ~100 below last Monday's case numbers.

The encouraging number is the 184 hospitalized which is the lowest we have been since mid July. Including Sat/Sun we have had three days in a row below 200 hospitalizations so we are definitely trending in the right direction.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/18 vs 10/15	2	19	31	47	63	31	21	15	8	4	241
% of Daily Change	0.83%	7.88%	12.86%	19.50%	26.14%	12.86%	8.71%	6.22%	3.32%	1.66%
% of Total Cases	0.77%	5.74%	11.37%	25.09%	20.78%	14.63%	10.57%	6.26%	2.97%	1.82

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Another nice day for Travis County, 173 cases today (looks like a "fast finger" in the <1 category sometime led to a re-classification of some cases) and 171 people hospitalized (lowest since July 16th), other good news is for the past two days the seven day moving avg for hospitalizations has fallen below 200 as well.

 

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/19 vs 10/18	-1	15	23	49	27	29	16	8	5	2	173
% of Daily Change	-0.58%	8.67%	13.29%	28.32%	15.61%	16.76%	9.25%	4.62%	2.89%	1.16%
% of Total Cases	0.76%	5.74%	11.37%	25.10%	20.78%	14.64%	10.57%	6.25%	2.97%	1.82%

[BrazilHorn 6576]

107 cases in Travis County today, down 40 from this day last week.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/20 vs 10/19	1	7	13	28	22	14	9	6	4	3	107
% of Daily Change	0.93%	6.54%	12.15%	26.17%	20.56%	13.08%	8.41%	5.61%	3.74%	2.80%
% of Total Cases	0.77%	5.74%	11.37%	25.10%	20.78%	14.64%	10.57%	6.25%	2.97%	1.82%

[Telegraph_it 3353]

On 10/14/2021 at 6:13 PM, South Austin said:

F1 next weekend is going to bring the masses, and while the races are outdoors, a lot of folks will be packed into hotels, bars, and restaurants.  But ACL Fest arguably rose to the same level the past two weekends and all hell didn't break lose, so maybe this Delta wave is running its course and it won't really make a difference. 

We are still doing these posts? The event is going to happen. Some folks are going to catch the Covid but most will be fine.  
 

Travel around the country a bit. Airports are packed. Bars are packed. People are out and about. A lot are vaccinated. Some aren’t. But people are allowed to do fun stuff and they are. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Looks like cases are back up somewhat in England and parts of continental Europe - reasoning is waning immunity from shots or low vaccination rates in some countries.  Not quite as bad as before, but now I'm worried we're just coming to a mysterious "two months on/two months off" cycle with this virus, with Europe about a month or so ahead of us.

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Looks like cases are back up somewhat in England and parts of continental Europe - reasoning is waning immunity from shots or low vaccination rates in some countries.  Not quite as bad as before, but now I'm worried we're just coming to a mysterious "two months on/two months off" cycle with this virus, with Europe about a month or so ahead of us.

but they had a real lockdowns, so their curve is flatter and their burn is much slower. 

[MissingInAction 24765]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

but they had a real lockdowns, so their curve is flatter and their burn is much slower. 

Yep. All the unvaxxed fuck nuts running around are actually helping in a way.

[utee94 15742]

2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Looks like cases are back up somewhat in England and parts of continental Europe - reasoning is waning immunity from shots or low vaccination rates in some countries.  Not quite as bad as before, but now I'm worried we're just coming to a mysterious "two months on/two months off" cycle with this virus, with Europe about a month or so ahead of us.

Look at the UK's hospitalization/death rate as a percentage of total case rate this time though, compared to all previous spikes.

England's done a good job with vaccination, and the vaccine is doing its job.  The same is happening here, for those that take the vaccine.

I just can't worry about stupid people that won't get the vaccine anymore. 

 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

but they had a real lockdowns, so their curve is flatter and their burn is much slower. 

In other words, they kept their antivaxxers alive longer?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Look at the UK's hospitalization/death rate as a percentage of total case rate this time though, compared to all previous spikes.

England's done a good job with vaccination, and the vaccine is doing its job.  The same is happening here, for those that take the vaccine.

I just can't worry about stupid people that won't get the vaccine anymore. 

 

Yeah, but it does appear to be a two/four month cycle regardless of what actions a society takes.  That’s going to mean some increased risk for us here until we can burn through all the antivax nuts two months at a time. There are a lot of them to burn through, too. 

[utee94 15742]

13 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Yeah, but it does appear to be a two/four month cycle regardless of what actions a society takes.  That’s going to mean some increased risk for us here until we can burn through all the antivax nuts two months at a time. There are a lot of them to burn through, too. 

We already hit the Delta wave in the South, during the hot summer months when everyone went inside and started breathing each other's air.  We're now seeing climbing numbers in the north, where they're now starting to be forced indoors as well.  This will continue on in the USA, cyclically and invariably.

Lamenting "all the stupid people" is fruitless-- and pointless-- now.  Keep yourself up to date on the vax and any boosters that might come along.  Same for your loved ones.  Protect yourself because nobody else is going to care as much about you and yours, as you do. 

And live your life.  Enjoy it.  You got vaccinated.  You're in good shape.

Edited October 20, 2021 by utee94

[XYZ 2154]

Is there any way to find out what percentage of currently hospitalized covid patients are vaccinated?

[bschoolprof 6232]

12 hours ago, XYZ said:

Is there any way to find out what percentage of currently hospitalized covid patients are vaccinated?

Nationally, in the US, no.  The Brits and The Israelis are able to provide this fairly easily because of their centralized healthcare system.  

In the states, the best data comes from, gulp, Oklahoma.  They put out weekly reports that provide great data.  For the last 30 days, around 20% of hospital admits were fully vaccinated (see page 9).  This type of analysis does not control for age (which is highly correlated with vax status and hospitalization risk) nor does it provide rate data (e.g., admits per 100K), which is more useful.  

[StruggleBus 3922]

Get vaccinated. Forget covid exists. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

25 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Nationally, in the US, no.  The Brits and The Israelis are able to provide this fairly easily because of their centralized healthcare system.  

In the states, the best data comes from, gulp, Oklahoma.  They put out weekly reports that provide great data.  For the last 30 days, around 20% of hospital admits were fully vaccinated (see page 9).  This type of analysis does not control for age (which is highly correlated with vax status and hospitalization risk) nor does it provide rate data (e.g., admits per 100K), which is more useful.  

Yeah, It’s not an especially useful metric to ask % in hospital who are vaccinated. As vaccination rates rise, that percentage will rise even though the total hospitalization numbers drop significantly.

[XYZ 2154]

42 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Nationally, in the US, no.  The Brits and The Israelis are able to provide this fairly easily because of their centralized healthcare system.  

In the states, the best data comes from, gulp, Oklahoma.  They put out weekly reports that provide great data.  For the last 30 days, around 20% of hospital admits were fully vaccinated (see page 9).  This type of analysis does not control for age (which is highly correlated with vax status and hospitalization risk) nor does it provide rate data (e.g., admits per 100K), which is more useful.  

Thank you. That’s a nice report that, gulp, Oklahoma produces.

[Anastasis 23375]

16 new admits in ATX today, puts 7 day avg at 16 as well.  We are this close to going back into stage 2 (<15) and everyone can go back to licking door knobs for a couple months. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here are yesterday's numbers for Travis County. 151 cases (roughly flat to same day last week).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/21 vs 10/20	2	25	6	35	38	14	6	5	4	16	151
% of Daily Change	1.32%	16.56%	3.97%	23.18%	25.17%	9.27%	3.97%	3.31%	2.65%	10.60%
% of Total Cases	0.77%	5.75%	11.36%	25.09%	20.78%	14.63%	10.56%	6.25%	2.97%	1.83%

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here are the cases for today in Travis County and the Deaths for the week ending 10/22

129 cases today which is down ~70 from this day last week. There were 15 deaths vs 14 last week.

20 to 29 (1), 30 to 39 (1), 40 to 49 (2), 50 to 59 (5), 60 to 69 (4) 80+ (2)

Cases breakout by age below

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/22 vs 10/21	1	14	16	35	27	20	7	8	1	0	129
% of Daily Change	0.78%	10.85%	12.40%	27.13%	20.93%	15.50%	5.43%	6.20%	0.78%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.77%	5.76%	11.37%	25.10%	20.78%	14.63%	10.55%	6.25%	2.96%	1.83%

[Anastasis 23375]

New admission sub-10 bitches. We're in stage 2. 

[smoky 837]

Mission Accomplished!

[bschoolprof 6232]

When does the 4th wave start? January? Probably late December.  

[Neonmoon 38127]

I don’t think there will be a fourth if there isn’t a new variant 

[bschoolprof 6232]

I wish.  There will be a 4th.  If I'm wrong, you can have my endzone club seats I don't sit in.  

[Anastasis 23375]

14 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

When does the 4th wave start? January? Probably late December.  

I think that we might be able to glide until at least Feb. 

[XYZ 2154]

21 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

When does the 4th wave start? January? Probably late December.  

December.

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

Day over day increase in cases over the past 5 straight days. Something of note, even though I dont think its a canary in the coal mone

[JimmyJames 12271]

13 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

When does the 4th wave start? January? Probably late December.  

This is my guess. I don’t think it will be vaccine resistant but higher risk people at a minimum should get a third shot.

I do think that will be the last major wave and Covid will then become more like the flu but slightly more transmittable and deadly for the unvaccinated.  

[Snake Diggity 4614]

19 hours ago, XYZ said:

December.

Yep, if there is going to be another significant wave without a new variant, it’ll be in the Dec-Feb timeframe.

[Bevo 13493]

6 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

This is my guess. I don’t think it will be vaccine resistant but higher risk people at a minimum should get a third shot.

I do think that will be the last major wave and Covid will then become more like the flu but slightly more transmittable and deadly for the unvaccinated.  

Do you have a link?

[BrazilHorn 6576]

349 cases over the weekend plus Monday for Travis County (~100 more than last Monday/Weekend)

Also in terms of a "winter wave" it was Mid December to Mid February that cases spiked last winter. Not saying that will be the case this year but that was case last year (pre vaccination rollout etc)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
Cases 10/25 vs 10/22	3	37	39	138	52	41	23	11	4	1	349
% of Daily Change	0.86%	10.60%	11.17%	39.54%	14.90%	11.75%	6.59%	3.15%	1.15%	0.29%
% of Total Cases	0.77%	5.77%	11.36%	25.14%	20.77%	14.62%	10.54%	6.24%	2.96%	1.83%

[HouTex 1847]

SETex numbers continue to improve. Only around 70 new admissions to the hospital today with suspected or confirmed Covid in the 27 county 9.5 million person region. Over 9,000 regular hospital beds available and over 200 ICU beds available.

[Anastasis 23375]

Good job 20-29s. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Good job 20-29s. 

It’s hard to turn down the gang bang in your 20s

[South Austin 52037]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s hard to turn down the gang bang in your 20s

And it’s not gay if it’s a three-way.

[MissingInAction 24765]

We will see an upswing 2 weeks after Thanksgiving. Mark it down.

[LurkingHorn 1044]

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

We will see an upswing 2 weeks after Thanksgiving. Mark it down.

I have marked the week before thanksgiving to get the booster. Figure that gives me max protection and less chance of spreading it through the holidays. 

[smoky 837]

3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

We will see an upswing 2 weeks after Thanksgiving. Mark it down.

That would be impressive.  Our (Austin) backslide from the peak of Wave 2 hospitalizations to the start of Wave 3 was 7 months long.    The downward trend for Wave 3 started around 8/25.

If there's a wave 4, I doubt it'll start in 2021.

[babysdaddy 2711]

anecdotally, cases amongst students in the entire HP district (don't believe they have a mask mandate and approx 7,000 students) by week ending:

8/23- 87

8/30- 125

9/6- 67

9/13- 39

9/20-21

9/27- 14

10/4- 19

10/11- 7

10/18- 7

10/25- 1

[kevwun 15595]

11 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

I have marked the week before thanksgiving to get the booster. Figure that gives me max protection and less chance of spreading it through the holidays. 

I would do it 2 or 3 weeks before to give your body time to ramp up antibody production.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

On the road this week so no time to do the age group day over day.

171 cases yesterday for Travis County.

138 people hospitalized (lowest since July 14th)

55 in ICU (lowest since July 16th)

Things moving in right direction.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

I think if we get below 50 hospitalized in msa (which would probably mean <25 in ICU) it’ll signal the end of the pandemic in Travis county (and signal beginning of just managing the endemic disease as we do many others).  Our vax and previously infected rates are high enough, and population healthy enough to not have a 4th wave.  I think we’ll know by 2/1/22 if it’s over.  Please baby Jesus hook us up.

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

50 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I think if we get below 50 hospitalized in msa (which would probably mean <25 in ICU) it’ll signal the end of the pandemic in Travis county (and signal beginning of just managing the endemic disease as we do many others).  Our vax and previously infected rates are high enough, and population healthy enough to not have a 4th wave.  I think we’ll know by 2/1/22 if it’s over.  Please baby Jesus hook us up.

Meanwhile, in Brazos County, with a much lower vaccination rate, I expect another wave this winter, but smaller.  Unless, of course, a worse variant emerges.

[DDD Dad 14167]

2 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

anecdotally, cases amongst students in the entire HP district (don't believe they have a mask mandate and approx 7,000 students) by week ending:

 

ISWYDT

[Anastasis 23375]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

On the road this week so no time to do the age group day over day.

171 cases yesterday for Travis County.

138 people hospitalized (lowest since July 14th)

55 in ICU (lowest since July 16th)

Things moving in right direction.

8 new admits, 7 day average down to 14.1.  A few more solid days like that and we are firmly in stage 2. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

23 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

8 new admits, 7 day average down to 14.1.  A few more solid days like that and we are firmly in stage 2. 

Agree. Things are looking much better. 

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

Humidity and temps down.  Sunshine out.

[bschoolprof 6232]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I think if we get below 50 hospitalized in msa (which would probably mean <25 in ICU) it’ll signal the end of the pandemic in Travis county (and signal beginning of just managing the endemic disease as we do many others).  Our vax and previously infected rates are high enough, and population healthy enough to not have a 4th wave.  I think we’ll know by 2/1/22 if it’s over.  Please baby Jesus hook us up.

You mean like we basically did at the end of June this year (6/28/21 = 59 in hospital; 23 in ICU across across the 11 counties around Austin)?  

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2056]

55 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

You mean like we basically did at the end of June this year (6/28/21 = 59 in hospital; 23 in ICU across across the 11 counties around Austin)?  

yes.  we know it was low before.  he's predicting that the wave that followed that will be the last one.

[Brisketexan 104465]

50 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

yes.  we know it was low before.  he's predicting that the wave that followed that will be the last one.

My hope is that future "waves" will look a lot more like the flu -- at the very least, in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.  It's a contagious disease that seems to have some seasonal element to it.  And it is now endemic, and won't be eradicated anytime soon (and probably not ever).  I think we should expect it to behave like similar respiratory viral illnesses going forward.  But if we have a high enough "immunity" rate (combined vaccination and previous infection, hoping that each 1) lessens the likelihood of transmissible viral load, and 2) reduces severity if one is infected), then we can keep the EFFECTS (hospitalization and death) to a level on par with the flu.

That's my dream.  It's an optimistic one.  So I have no business having such a dream.  But there we are.