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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23736

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

16 today.  new admits be tripping and trying to pull us back into stage 3.

7 day average still ticking down by small bits, so we are trading off historical days with high admits for current days with lower, but yeah, if this trends continues the move in the 7d will reverse. 

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Samson's Wig

Samson's Wig 3242

Posted
Posted
On 10/29/2021 at 4:05 PM, smoky said:
On 10/29/2021 at 1:28 PM, Samson said:
Do tell.  How did you pull that off when approval hasn't come yet?

We got an email from our pediatrician saying they expect it to be approved and they're taking appointments for Nov 6th, but would do it earlier if it gets approved earlier.

I like your pediatrician.  Ours said, "Fuck off and call back once it's been authorized."

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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8482

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

2 admits.  Nice.  
 

I’ve been celebrating a little and going maskless.  I feel like we’ve earned it. we are a week away from another big vax bump with kids getting it.  We might have this thing whipped. 

Isn't that what they always say just before the ax/knife/chain saw murderer with his body shot to hell jumps up and kills two or three more?  I'm going to wait awhile before I think it's whipped.

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sidis

sidis 10020

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

2 admits.  Nice.  
 

I’ve been celebrating a little and going maskless.  I feel like we’ve earned it. we are a week away from another big vax bump with kids getting it.  We might have this thing whipped. 

tsx-pix-2019-1129-hunt-for-red-october-7

 

outoffocusguy when horns lead 28-7 in the first quarter against ou: cool, this thing is done.  let's go get some molly.

outoffocusguy when horns pick off osu up 17-3 on their side of the field: put your feet up boys, we done here.

outoffocusguy when horns retake the lead from baylor 21-17: fat lady is singing!

Edited by sidis
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 107118

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, sidis said:

tsx-pix-2019-1129-hunt-for-red-october-7

 

outoffocusguy when horns lead 28-7 in the first quarter against ou: cool, this thing is done.  let's go get some molly.

outoffocusguy when horns pick off osu up 17-3 on their side of the field: put your feet up boys, we done here.

outoffocusguy when horns retake the lead from baylor 21-17: fat lady is singing!

I hate you so, so, so.........SO much.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted

Thought my new laptop had synched up better but it didn't so this is true up from 11/2 back to 10/26.

715 cases over that period of time for Travis County.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 11/2 vs 10/26 8 94 73 136 162 98 75 43 21 5 715
% of Daily Change 1.12% 13.15% 10.21% 19.02% 22.66% 13.71% 10.49% 6.01% 2.94% 0.70%  
% of Total Cases 0.77% 5.82% 11.37% 25.05% 20.79% 14.64% 10.54% 6.24% 2.96% 1.82%  
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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5685

Posted
Posted
Isn't that what they always say just before the ax/knife/chain saw murderer with his body shot to hell jumps up and kills two or three more?  I'm going to wait awhile before I think it's whipped.

Blonde chick: Why dont we get into the running car? (vaccination)?

Skinny hipster: Are you serious!?! Lets hide in the garage! (antivax)
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted

Good day for Travis Co with 73 cases.

Down to 114 people hospitalized.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 11/3 vs 11/2 2 9 5 14 11 13 10 5 1 3 73
% of Daily Change 2.74% 12.33% 6.85% 19.18% 15.07% 17.81% 13.70% 6.85% 1.37% 4.11%  
% of Total Cases 0.77% 5.83% 11.36% 25.04% 20.79% 14.64% 10.55% 6.24% 2.96% 1.82%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted

Here are the cases by age demo for Thursday in Travis County. 120 cases overall.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 11/4 vs 11/3 -1 12 16 24 26 24 9 5 4 1 120
% of Daily Change -0.83% 10.00% 13.33% 20.00% 21.67% 20.00% 7.50% 4.17% 3.33% 0.83%  
% of Total Cases 0.77% 5.83% 11.37% 25.04% 20.79% 14.64% 10.54% 6.24% 2.96% 1.82%  
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Bevo

Bevo 13959

Posted
Posted
On 11/1/2021 at 4:27 PM, South Austin said:

The last two weeks I’ve noticed that generally fewer fucks have been given, particularly with lower mask rates. I’m starting to loosen up, though have been still masking up in stores. 

Shit, I noticed the opposite. HEB was all masked up in Cedar Park.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted

ok the case data for Travis County today but it looks like they updated deaths for the w/e 11/5. Big caveat in that the data on this could be borked as well.

Only 4 deaths this past week which if true would be the lowest since w/e Aug 13th.

50 to 59 (1)

60 to 69 (1)

70 to 79 (1)

80+ (1)

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23736

Posted
Posted

APH moving the goals posts now in terms of the public health staging. They are now replacing 7 day daily admit average with a new measure of community cases per 100k. They will use the higher of the two. Essentially, APH is adopting COVID zero as public health policy and will base their public health staging on this. These people just insist on undermining their credibility and will no doubt be shocked when people stop listening to them. They are unable to articulate an offramp, and if we hit the one that they do articulate, they add another gate. This is not tenable. 

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/will-austin-travis-county-move-to-stage-2-health-leaders-host-media-qa/

“A lot of people are asking why haven’t we shifted our staging to Stage 2 and I want to talk about that and explain that doctors like to not just treat disease, but we like to prevent disease and illness,” Dr. Desmar Walkes, the local health authority, started the briefing Friday morning.

Walkes said there are many factors that go into the risk-based guidelines. The metric largely used to this point, at least in public messaging, was the 7-day moving average of hospital admissions. That metric will still be used, but Walkes says they are also adding the 7-day moving average of community transmission rate to their dashboard to help show the community why APH might not be ready to move the area to a new stage even when hospitalizations are down.

Health leaders say community transmission rate, which is not new to health leaders but hasn’t been discussed in briefings until this week, is an indicator of how likely you are to get COVID-19 in a county.

Over the past week the Travis County area saw a transmission rate of 50 cases per 100,000, Walkes said. To get to Stage 2 we would have to see a transmission rate of less than 10 cases per 100,000, according to APH.

 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6353

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

APH moving the goals posts now in terms of the public health staging. They are now replacing 7 day daily admit average with a new measure of community cases per 100k. They will use the higher of the two. Essentially, APH is adopting COVID zero as public health policy and will base their public health staging on this. These people just insist on undermining their credibility and will no doubt be shocked when people stop listening to them. They are unable to articulate an offramp, and if we hit the one that they do articulate, they add another gate. This is not tenable. 

 

 

I agree with you but had to chortle at the bolded part.  Most folks stopped listening long ago, if they ever did.  

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Posted
Posted (edited)

So we are at 50/100,000 -- or 1 case per 2,000 people. They want 10/100,000 -- or 1 case per 10,000 people? One-fifth of where we are now and a point I don't even think we hit at the nadir in June? And a point that may honestly be impossible for us to ever hit given what we've seen?

I'm as COVID-bro as anyone and that seems outlandish. 

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Guest

Posted
Posted

I just looked on the APH website. The color-coded chart says -- I kid you not -- that if you are unvaccinated, there is nowhere you should go without wearing a mask even at Stage 1. In other words, their guidance says COVID could be completely finished, but unvaccinated kids would still need to where a mask. 

spacer.png

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90778

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

These people just insist on undermining their credibility and will no doubt be shocked when people stop listening to them. They are unable to articulate an offramp, and if we hit the one that they do articulate, they add another gate. This is not tenable. 

Have you been out and about in Austin lately?  A shitload of people stopped caring/wearing masks a long time ago, back around June/July.

Those who don't believe in masks, vaccines, etc. were never going to give a shit and listen to APH or any other such entity, and those who do are just fine with still taking various measures until a lot more kids are vaccinated.  The latter group understand why APH is hesitant to move things down, and the first group treats stage 4 or 5 the same as they treat stage 1 or 2.

I went to the wedding of a friend's son near Conroe yesterday, and there were 8 or 9 kids there under the age of 8, in addition to our kids, and our kids were the only ones masked, and we kept our kids with us while the rest of the kids were crammed in at a little table.  And the bride and groom had 6 out of their 8 grandparents there and none were masked up (and out of those 6, 5 easily had Ye Olde Pre-Existing Conditions).

We had a parent tell us we were "sending the wrong message" by masking our kids up and not letting them play with the unmasked kids.  We explained that we wouldn't be responsible for exposing other kids, and we didn't want our kids exposed so that they'd have to miss school.  The woman told us "why on earth would you ever tell the school that your kids had covid or were exposed to it?"

I won't repeat the rest of the conversation but she was shocked as hell when we explained that our kids would be fully vaccinated by the first week or two of December and we wouldn't be as concerned. We'll just say that she's in the microchip/infertility/heart attack outbreaks in 6 year olds crowd.

Frustrated Ryan Gosling GIF

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23736

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Have you been out and about in Austin lately?  A shitload of people stopped caring/wearing masks a long time ago, back around June/July.

Those who don't believe in masks, vaccines, etc. were never going to give a shit and listen to APH or any other such entity, and those who do are just fine with still taking various measures until a lot more kids are vaccinated.  The latter group understand why APH is hesitant to move things down, and the first group treats stage 4 or 5 the same as they treat stage 1 or 2.

I went to the wedding of a friend's son near Conroe yesterday, and there were 8 or 9 kids there under the age of 8, in addition to our kids, and our kids were the only ones masked, and we kept our kids with us while the rest of the kids were crammed in at a little table.  And the bride and groom had 6 out of their 8 grandparents there and none were masked up (and out of those 6, 5 easily had Ye Olde Pre-Existing Conditions).

We had a parent tell us we were "sending the wrong message" by masking our kids up and not letting them play with the unmasked kids.  We explained that we wouldn't be responsible for exposing other kids, and we didn't want our kids exposed so that they'd have to miss school.  The woman told us "why on earth would you ever tell the school that your kids had covid or were exposed to it?"

I won't repeat the rest of the conversation but she was shocked as hell when we explained that our kids would be fully vaccinated by the first week or two of December and we wouldn't be as concerned.

Frustrated Ryan Gosling GIF

That’s a csb but doesn’t in any way absolve the public health authorities for moving the goal posts when they are not happy that we are hitting the objective  metrics they laid out for staging. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

We had a parent tell us we were "sending the wrong message" by masking our kids up and not letting them play with the unmasked kids.  We explained that we wouldn't be responsible for exposing other kids, and we didn't want our kids exposed so that they'd have to miss school.  The woman told us "why on earth would you ever tell the school that your kids had covid or were exposed to it?"

I won't repeat the rest of the conversation but she was shocked as hell when we explained that our kids would be fully vaccinated by the first week or two of December and we wouldn't be as concerned. We'll just say that she's in the microchip/infertility/heart attack outbreaks in 6 year olds crowd.

Frustrated Ryan Gosling GIF

Is this for real?

Edited by Satoshi
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90778

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Is this for real?

If you're talking about large groups of unmasked kids from different areas playing together, visit any playground in any city in Texas.

If you're talking about us not letting our kids play with them, those kids were walking cough and snot factories, and they had their hands all over each other and were sharing food, etc..  I know it's probably allergies, but even if it wasn't allergies or covid, my kids had to go through covid tests recently because they had some cold that's been going around and I have no desire for them to go through that again.

After the last year where they had to spend a lot of time home, I (and they) just have very little desire for them to spend any chunk of time during the school year at home, whether it's because of a cold or because they were exposed to covid.  As we get into December, they'll be fully vaccinated for covid, and I won't care as much.

Although I still won't let them play with a bunch of snot-nosed/coughing kids.  I've enjoyed the past 18 months not getting the flu and mostly avoiding colds.

 

 

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted

Welp the Travis County age group tables appear to have either gone through a complete restatement or the data is just fucked up. It's showing a roughly 2200 case drop over the past 4 days by age groups.

The Aggregate case numbers reported differ from this so I will keep an eye on it but this may put the age group reporting at an end.

Was good weekend/Monday overall with only 115 cases. Friday had 67 cases.

It is looking like all of the Delta/Back to school surge has passed. Also we can put to rest the "outdoor events give you Covid" storyline as neither UT Football (you may be just sick from watching in general) or ACL caused jack shit to happen.

I will see if TCAD gets their shit together but I doubt it.

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South Austin

South Austin 53360

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Welp the Travis County age group tables appear to have either gone through a complete restatement or the data is just fucked up. It's showing a roughly 2200 case drop over the past 4 days by age groups.

The Aggregate case numbers reported differ from this so I will keep an eye on it but this may put the age group reporting at an end.

Was good weekend/Monday overall with only 115 cases. Friday had 67 cases.

It is looking like all of the Delta/Back to school surge has passed. Also we can put to rest the "outdoor events give you Covid" storyline as neither UT Football (you may be just sick from watching in general) or ACL caused jack shit to happen.

I will see if TCAD gets their shit together but I doubt it.

We're gonna win.

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utee94

utee94 16093

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Welp the Travis County age group tables appear to have either gone through a complete restatement or the data is just fucked up. It's showing a roughly 2200 case drop over the past 4 days by age groups.

The Aggregate case numbers reported differ from this so I will keep an eye on it but this may put the age group reporting at an end.

Was good weekend/Monday overall with only 115 cases. Friday had 67 cases.

It is looking like all of the Delta/Back to school surge has passed. Also we can put to rest the "outdoor events give you Covid" storyline as neither UT Football (you may be just sick from watching in general) or ACL caused jack shit to happen.

I will see if TCAD gets their shit together but I doubt it.

Yup.  We're also more than 2 weeks past the Formula 1 race at COTA, and we're more than 4 weeks past TX-OU and the resulting hundreds of thousands at the State Fair. 

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South Austin

South Austin 53360

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yup.  We're also more than 2 weeks past the Formula 1 race at COTA, and we're more than 4 weeks past TX-OU and the resulting hundreds of thousands at the State Fair. 

And add Austin Food + Wine Fest this past weekend.  The crowds weren't packed in like ACL Fest, but there were still a lot of folks there, unmasked, and in close quarters with the various vendors serving alcohol and food items.  If the numbers have been steadily going down after all of those other large outdoor gatherings this Fall, I doubt Food + Wine Fest will make a difference.

I'm still wearing masks in grocery stores and retail establishments, mainly just out of habit, but also out of respect for employees who still have to mask up.  And even apart from COVID, it's nice to have some measure of protection against the seasonal colds and flues, and I have to think that masking helps with that.  I'll also put one on at a restaurant if it's required, but at this point it's a bit silly to require masks when you're moving about the place but not at your table relatively close by to others with the capacity limitations out the window. 

But with vaccines available for the 12 and under group, boosters for the rest, and natural immunity from the anti-vaxers who got OG Covid or the Delta, I think we're going to slowly see masking dwindle to a minority.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15458

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If you're talking about large groups of unmasked kids from different areas playing together, visit any playground in any city in Texas.

If you're talking about us not letting our kids play with them, those kids were walking cough and snot factories, and they had their hands all over each other and were sharing food, etc..  I know it's probably allergies, but even if it wasn't allergies or covid, my kids had to go through covid tests recently because they had some cold that's been going around and I have no desire for them to go through that again.

After the last year where they had to spend a lot of time home, I (and they) just have very little desire for them to spend any chunk of time during the school year at home, whether it's because of a cold or because they were exposed to covid.  As we get into December, they'll be fully vaccinated for covid, and I won't care as much.

Although I still won't let them play with a bunch of snot-nosed/coughing kids.  I've enjoyed the past 18 months not getting the flu and mostly avoiding colds.

 

 

 

Little kids having a cold....The Horror!!! The HORROR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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HouTex

HouTex 1945

Posted
Posted
Welp the Travis County age group tables appear to have either gone through a complete restatement or the data is just fucked up. It's showing a roughly 2200 case drop over the past 4 days by age groups.
The Aggregate case numbers reported differ from this so I will keep an eye on it but this may put the age group reporting at an end.
Was good weekend/Monday overall with only 115 cases. Friday had 67 cases.
It is looking like all of the Delta/Back to school surge has passed. Also we can put to rest the "outdoor events give you Covid" storyline as neither UT Football (you may be just sick from watching in general) or ACL caused jack shit to happen.
I will see if TCAD gets their shit together but I doubt it.

DKR Memorial Stadium itself is, of course, outdoors, but there are a ton of people crammed tightly together in concourses, restrooms, suites, beer/food lines etc.
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6860

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HouTex said:


DKR Memorial Stadium itself is, of course, outdoors, but there are a ton of people crammed tightly together in concourses, restrooms, suites, beer/food lines etc.

True - but there has been no spike as a result of any of these large gatherings. I think that has run its course. Next spike if it comes (barring some new crazy variant) would be the Jan-Mid Feb spike resulting from holiday travel/gatherings. Big difference this year vs last is number of vaccinated folks. Will be interesting to see if we see same type of case run up as last year.

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