COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[HouTex 1847]

True - but there has been no spike as a result of any of these large gatherings. I think that has run its course. Next spike if it comes (barring some new crazy variant) would be the Jan-Mid Feb spike resulting from holiday travel/gatherings. Big difference this year vs last is number of vaccinated folks. Will be interesting to see if we see same type of case run up as last year.

Exactly. That’s the point I was trying to make. Many would have expected huge spikes from tens of thousands of people in such close quarters.

[South Austin 52037]

15 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Big difference this year vs last is number of vaccinated folks.

To clarify, the big difference this year v. last year is number of vaccinated folks plus number of unvaccinated folks who caught COVID and have natural immunity. 

I'm not laying down my criticisms of the anti-vaxers, but there are still a large portion of that population that has contracted and survived COVID, which should help mitigate a holiday spike like the one we had last year, no?

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2056]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

To clarify, the big difference this year v. last year is number of vaccinated folks plus number of unvaccinated folks who caught COVID and have natural immunity. 

I'm not laying down my criticisms of the anti-vaxers, but there are still a large portion of that population that has contracted and survived COVID, which should help mitigate a holiday spike like the one we had last year, no?

yeah, everyone is starting with some level of defenses this winter.  Last year we were all at zero.

[JimmyJames 12271]

33 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

True - but there has been no spike as a result of any of these large gatherings. I think that has run its course. Next spike if it comes (barring some new crazy variant) would be the Jan-Mid Feb spike resulting from holiday travel/gatherings. Big difference this year vs last is number of vaccinated folks. Will be interesting to see if we see same type of case run up as last year.

I do think there will be a December- January spike but it should be much less than last year. Then hopefully that’s basically it. 

[Brisketexan 104465]

11 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

yeah, everyone is starting with some level of defenses this winter.  Last year we were all at zero.

Well, not EVERYONE.  The questions are 1) what percentage is still completely defenseless (no vax, and no infection-acquired immune response), and 2) as to the people with defenses, how effective are those defenses at preventing further infection and spread?

I dunno the answers, but I'd like to know.  They seem relevant.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

33 minutes ago, South Austin said:

To clarify, the big difference this year v. last year is number of vaccinated folks plus number of unvaccinated folks who caught COVID and have natural immunity. 

I'm not laying down my criticisms of the anti-vaxers, but there are still a large portion of that population that has contracted and survived COVID, which should help mitigate a holiday spike like the one we had last year, no?

I think you're right. I think there may be somewhat of a jump in cases post holiday but I would expect to see hospitalizations much lower than last post-holiday (We got in the 600s for hospitalized during mid/late Jan)

[Samson's Wig 3168]

On 11/7/2021 at 7:52 PM, atomheartbevo said:

 

We had a parent tell us we were "sending the wrong message" by masking our kids up and not letting them play with the unmasked kids.  We explained that we wouldn't be responsible for exposing other kids, and we didn't want our kids exposed so that they'd have to miss school.  The woman told us "why on earth would you ever tell the school that your kids had covid or were exposed to it?"

I won't repeat the rest of the conversation but she was shocked as hell when we explained that our kids would be fully vaccinated by the first week or two of December and we wouldn't be as concerned. We'll just say that she's in the microchip/infertility/heart attack outbreaks in 6 year olds crowd.

 

Fuck that aggie bitch.

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

1 hour ago, HouTex said:

Exactly. That’s the point I was trying to make. Many would have expected huge spikes from tens of thousands of people in such close quarters.

Those concourses are open air and high ceilings though. I’d expect air exchange to happen more rapidly than a restaurant with 8-10 ft ceilings and hvac blowing the air back down onto people. 
 

id expect a Home Depot or large Walmart to be better, too, even if the air volume is more of a diluent and there’s still limited air exchange happening. 

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

15 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think you're right. I think there may be somewhat of a jump in cases post holiday but I would expect to see hospitalizations much lower than last post-holiday (We got in the 600s for hospitalized during mid/late Jan)

If the most important question about a winter/Christmas wave is will it stress the healthcare system, I think signs point to no. Let’s hope, anyway. Plenty of travel related trauma and other seasonal issues to deal with of its a fairly normal holiday season. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

9 hours ago, South Austin said:

But with vaccines available for the 12 and under group, boosters for the rest, and natural immunity from the anti-vaxers who got OG Covid or the Delta,

Speaking of these things.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/?_ga=2.109135105.520513079.1636504629-1502046330.1632437667

Quote

As of Nov. 7, 17.9 million people have received at least one dose, which is 61.5% of Texas’ population, and 15.6 million people, or 53.5%, are fully vaccinated. A total of 34.1 million doses have been administered, including booster shots. So far, 1,859,131 people have gotten booster shots.

Quote

Texas’s vaccination effort has faced geographic and demographic challenges compared to other states. A higher-than-average number of people are too young to get the vaccine and roughly 1 in 10 people live in rural counties, where health care is harder to access.

I'm not saying Christmas will be normal, but it will be for many.

Check out the link above, lots of pretty graphics (check your county %, etc.) and stats.  Those in the age 50 and up range are in the mid-70s as far as percentage vaccinated.

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2056]

trending up suddenly.  on the verge of stage 3 again

[atomheartbevo 89362]

27 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

trending up suddenly.  on the verge of stage 3 again

[atomheartbevo 89362]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/texas-study-unvaccinated-20-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19/

Quote

 A Texas government study found that unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than the fully vaccinated throughout most of September, providing further evidence backing the vaccines. 

The research, published by the Texas Department of State Health Services on Monday, determined that 81.3% of COVID-19-related deaths between Sept. 4 and Oct. 1 occurred among unvaccinated people. In comparison, 5% of these fatalities occurred among the partially vaccinated, and 13.7% involved fully vaccinated patients. 

Quote

In that time period, unvaccinated individuals in their 40s were 55 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than others who were the same age and fully vaccinated. Among those aged 75 and older, the unvaccinated were 12 times more likely to die.

Quote

Unvaccinated people were also 13 times more likely to contract COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated. More than 7 in 10 infected people were unvaccinated, compared to 19.3% who were partially vaccinated and 8.4% who were fully vaccinated. 

The analysis of electronic lab reports, death certificates and the state immunization registry extended from Jan. 15 to Oct. 1 and concluded Texans were four to five times more likely to contract COVID-19 or die from the virus amid the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant than they were previously.

Quote

In that full-time period, unvaccinated people were 45 times more likely to get infected and 40 times more likely to suffer a COVID-19-related death. Approximately 85% of those who contracted or died from COVID-19 were unvaccinated. 

 

 

[kevwun 15595]

Those are damn impressive numbers against the more virulent Delta strain.

[mchookem 16095]

i mean i feel like the only appropriate comment is...duh.

[yoladu 4065]

3 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

trending up suddenly.  on the verge of stage 3 again

people and, i assume, new organizations are worn out. We are still currently averaging around 1,200 deaths a day from covid nationally.

we averaged less daily deaths than that for a 5 month period in 2020 (June to November)

Edited November 10, 2021 by yoladu

[atomheartbevo 89362]

This will get the schools through the next few months as vaccinations for kids ramp up.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/texas-schools-can-again-set-their-own-face-mask-rules-after-federal-judge-overrules-gov-abbotts-ban/

Quote

A federal judge ruled Wednesday that Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order prohibiting mask mandates in schools violates the Americans with Disabilities Act — freeing local officials to again create their own rule

 

[Bevo 13493]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A federal judge ruled Wednesday that Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order prohibiting mask mandates in schools violates the Americans with Disabilities Act — freeing local officials to again create their own rule

What logic did the judge use? I assume that people who have problems with their immune system are subjected to unnecessary risks while in school. That seems like a slippery slope that uses a law in a way that it was not intended.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Bevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

19 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What logic did the judge use? I assume that people who have problems with their immune system are subjected to unnecessary risks while in school. That seems like a slippery slope that uses a law in a way that it was not intended.

You can read the article, the judge explains it.  There's been discussions elsewhere about whether Abbott actually has the kind of power to even sign such an order.

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

11 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

trending up suddenly.  on the verge of stage 3 again

Nationally, we have had 4 straight days of increasing cases. Aberration? We’ll see. Hopefully tomorrows and fridays numbers are better, because we never learn shit from the weekends numbers

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Nationally, we have had 4 straight days of increasing cases. Aberration? We’ll see. Hopefully tomorrows and fridays numbers are better, because we never learn shit from the weekends numbers

Plague of the unvax coming soon. Will die off in January.

[JimmyJames 12271]

After that’s it’s over. Likely able to limit deaths this wave due to medical advances. Science wins. 

[Bookman 4610]

8 hours ago, Bevo said:

What logic did the judge use? I assume that people who have problems with their immune system are subjected to unnecessary risks while in school. That seems like a slippery slope that uses a law in a way that it was not intended.

Here's the order: https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/818cffd53a1c56117586f65abccc9e7a/ADA Mask Lawsuit Order 2021-11-10.pdf

If you feel the court committed error, you should contact our AG. I'm sure he could use you on the appeal.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Bookman

[South Austin 52037]

Lee Yeakel is an incredibly bright and well-liked judge. He’s a G.W. appointee, but throughout his career he’s shown that he doesn’t suffer fools from the right, and this order demonstrates that.

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2056]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Lee Yeakel is an incredibly bright and well-liked judge. He’s a G.W. appointee, but throughout his career he’s shown that he doesn’t suffer fools from the right, and this order demonstrates that.

While I agree, these posts are always funny. 
 

(good thing comes out)

”As a little background, you’ll notice the judge is both handsome and has a manly musk.”

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Watching the Texas disaster vs Kansas reminded me I hadn't updated death data for Travis County.

10 deaths for week ending Nov 12. This time period last year there were 9 deaths. Last year this week all the deaths were from folks >40. Have a couple <40 this week.

20 to 29 (1)

30 to 39 (1)

40 to 49 (2)

60 to 69 (1)

70 to 79 (5)

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

Almost 105,000 new cases today. First time we’ve cracked 6 figs in 6 weeks. 6 straight days of increasing cases

[Neonmoon 38127]

4 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Almost 105,000 new cases today. First time we’ve cracked 6 figs in 6 weeks. 6 straight days of increasing cases

Are we at the point where cases won’t lead to more deaths? Or getting better at least?

[Anastasis 23375]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Are we at the point where cases won’t lead to more deaths? Or getting better at least?

Cases appear to decouple from deaths as result of vax. We are going to need to move away from case counts moving forward. 

[washparkhorn 9931]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Cases appear to decouple from deaths as result of vax. We are going to need to move away from case counts moving forward. 

I humbly opine it's too soon to stop counting cases given the number of unboostered and unvaccinated. They need to know when there is a greater chance of getting struck by lightning in their area.

If we have moved on to letting them die, if they want to, I will wash my hands of this. 

[Surly Bevo 24692]

If only they would die in their own homes then I would be there. But get a little Covid and suddenly a lot of these rugged individuals want help and burn our medical resources to the ground.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here are deaths for week ending 11/19

7 in total broken down as follows:

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (3)

70 to 79 (1)

This equivalent week last year there were 10 deaths as a rough compare.

[Satoshi 129]

 

[Gatorubet 30064]

Lee Yeakel is an incredibly bright and well-liked judge. He’s a G.W. appointee, but throughout his career he’s shown that he doesn’t suffer fools from the right, and this order demonstrates that.

“It cannot be more clear that Congress intends that the local school district receiving ARP Act funds be the ultimate decider of the requirements of the safe return to in-person instruction of students within that district.”

Yup. A state can’t pass a state law making it illegal to follow that which a Federal law requires.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

On 11/17/2021 at 9:25 PM, GreenspointTexas said:

Almost 105,000 new cases today. First time we’ve cracked 6 figs in 6 weeks. 6 straight days of increasing cases

105k, 111k, 112k for wed, thurs, and fri results

[bschoolprof 6232]

The upper midwest and northeast have started the next wave.  It will hit here again in a month or so.  

[Trey3216 15325]

Interesting Twitter thread here.   Tracks/compares COVID spread as a function Absolute Humidity.   Could be anecdotal, but lung function vis a vis humidity in general is different, and introducing a novel respiratory virus into the equation could be a fairly compelling reason for waves.   

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Trey3216

[Brisketexan 104465]

Interesting Twitter thread here.   Tracks/compares COVID spread as a function Absolute Humidity.   Could be anecdotal, but lung function vis a vis humidity in general is different, and introducing a novel respiratory virus into the equation could be a fairly compelling reason for waves.   
 

Interesting hypothesis, I’ll give him that.

[HouTex 1847]

Greater SE Texas numbers still improving. Only 40 new hospital admits in the last 24 hours. 9.5% of ICU patients are Covid or suspected Covid and 5.6% of general admission beds are Covid or suspected Covid.

[DDD Dad 14167]

Getting my second CARES blood draw as I type this. 2/10, 3/3 and 10/1 Pfizer shots. Was at 1095 spike after first draw at the end of August.

[The University 851]

i suppose this is positive news, but it is surprising that the quant number/range did not change at all from the 1st TX CARES test. 3x moderna. last jab was in august.

 

[Austinvines 309]

i suppose this is positive news, but it is surprising that the quant number/range did not change at all from the 1st TX CARES test. 3x moderna. last jab was in august.
 

When were your shots and when was the first CARES draw done?

I saw a tweet about the Pfizer vaccine ramping up to about 2,200 2-3 weeks after the second shot and then trailing down to about 300 six months later. They then got the third shot and the antibody level was over 12,000.

[bschoolprof 6232]

Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, El Paso, and Odessa all seeing upward spikes in covid hospitalizations.  It's started.  

[atomheartbevo 89362]

20 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, El Paso, and Odessa all seeing upward spikes in covid hospitalizations.  It's started.  

I wonder how much of that is out-of-state hitting Texas?

[bschoolprof 6232]

Maybe a little.  I think it's more geography/weather.  

[Texas Jeff 1932]

The CDC's data shows that the Delta variant now represents 99.9% of all new cases in the US.  The WHO has Delta at over 99% of worldwide cases.  Perhaps COVID is starting to reach the "optimal design" stage.

If so, I guess that's a good thing, however I'm not an expert.  It gives the vaccine people a single target to shoot at and it gives the anti-vax crowd one thing to become immune to, if they survive their first round of exposure.  Obviously it's bad for countries that have little access to vaccines.  

[HouTex 1847]

Amarillo, Lubbock, Abilene, El Paso, and Odessa all seeing upward spikes in covid hospitalizations.  It's started.  

27 county SE Tex area still dropping in ICU and general hospitalizations. Of a population of over 9.5 million, 51 people were admitted to the hospital yesterday with suspected or confirmed Covid.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

If you have the shot and are worried about covid you just don’t care about the data. 
 

I don’t know why we need to worry about it at this point.  It’s past time to move on.  If you want to assume the risk and not get the shot, it’s on you.  
 

My kids aren’t getting jabbed. Because they’ve already had it. And I don’t believe Covid it poses a material risk to them. 

[DDD Dad 14167]

If you have the shot and are worried about covid you just don’t care about the data. 
 
I don’t know why we need to worry about it at this point.  It’s past time to move on.  If you want to assume the risk and not get the shot, it’s on you.  
 
My kids aren’t getting jabbed. Because they’ve already had it. And I don’t believe Covid it poses a material risk to them. 

I’m not worried but watching trends. It’s not a problem until it is. That is to say, if the hospitals start filling up or access to therapeutics becomes scarce then it’s time to start worrying again.