COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[atomheartbevo 89396]

2 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

The CDC's data shows that the Delta variant now represents 99.9% of all new cases in the US.  The WHO has Delta at over 99% of worldwide cases.  Perhaps COVID is starting to reach the "optimal design" stage.

If so, I guess that's a good thing, however I'm not an expert.  It gives the vaccine people a single target to shoot at and it gives the anti-vax crowd one thing to become immune to, if they survive their first round of exposure.  Obviously it's bad for countries that have little access to vaccines.  

We will hit some kind of broader immunity (but not the fabled herd immunity). I have a group of relatives who were on the anti-vaccine bandwagon (NE Texas for the win) and it just went through them earlier this month (9 got it).  Thankfully nobody died, but one of them was hospitalized (she's pregnant and they were very concerned about her oxygen levels) and a couple did have it rough.  So they now have some immunity (and some of them said on FB that they will be getting vaccinated going forward), and hospital beds were actually available for them.

Which leads me to being somewhat optimistic about this winter.  In general, the amount of people who have immunity from having it or being vaccinated is relieving pressure on the hospitals (and before anybody jumps on me, I know some hospitals/are are getting hammered, I've seen what's happening in Michigan, I know what rural Texas is like, etc.).

Speaking as a parent, lots of kids are getting vaccinated, which will help the schools stay open and reduce the amount of kids being quarantined/having to stay home, so I'm also optimistic about the school year.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

Those of you in the UT study should have gotten a packet in the mail with a bunch of information.  

Hopefully UT will expand it because I know a lot of people who heard about it too late to join in.  A few items from the packet (probably on the website, but I can scan it and post it if not)

• 88,091 Texans from 234 counties participated in the study.
• Unvaccinated individuals with a previous infection have lower levels of antibodies to the spike protein compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
• Antibody levels peak 120 days after infection and then decrease, but remain detectable after 275 to 500 days.
• They estimate that 75% of Texans have antibodies either from natural infection or vaccine, and therefore have some kind of protection.
• More than a third of children they tested had antibodies to the virus, and 50.8% reported never having symptoms.
• 67% of participants were women, 33% men.  3,900 were kids.

I haven't read through the whole thing, but obviously the UT study is probably biased towards those who thought they had it but never tested for it, or who wanted to know if they had had it, or what their antibody levels are, etc. 

[bschoolprof 6232]

2 hours ago, HouTex said:

27 county SE Tex area still dropping in ICU and general hospitalizations. Of a population of over 9.5 million, 51 people were admitted to the hospital yesterday with suspected or confirmed Covid.

Houston will start ticking up soon enough - give it a month.

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

If you have the shot and are worried about covid you just don’t care about the data. 
 

I don’t know why we need to worry about it at this point.  It’s past time to move on.  If you want to assume the risk and not get the shot, it’s on you.  
 

My kids aren’t getting jabbed. Because they’ve already had it. And I don’t believe Covid it poses a material risk to them. 

I'm not personally particularly worried about covid (whole immediate family vaxxed), though my Dad is high risk.  I track it on this thread though for two reasons:

1) There have been several predictions on this thread that "Covid should be gone now because X" or "no more big waves because of Y," but the evidence nationally and internationally doesn't really support this. It comes in (fairly predictable) large waves, with NPIs and government policies not mattering very much. For a variety of reasons, I think there will be larges waves for years to come. 

2) Related to that, there is a great deal of teeth gnashing and panicked blame assignment with every new wave, with calls for various mandates, be they mask requirements, school closures/restrictions, event cancellations, etc.  In other parts of the world, they are still (foolishly in my view) pursuing lockdowns and other draconian restrictions.  I track it as much for the anticipation of panicked reactions as anything else.  

Anyway, whether you're worried more about the disease or your fellow man's reaction to it, it's coming again.  

[atomheartbevo 89396]

11 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

1) There have been several predictions on this thread that "Covid should be gone now because X" or "no more big waves because of Y," but the evidence nationally and internationally doesn't really support this. It comes in (fairly predictable) large waves, with NPIs and government policies not mattering very much. For a variety of reasons, I think there will be larges waves for years to come. 

2) Related to that, there is a great deal of teeth gnashing and panicked blame assignment with every new wave, with calls for various mandates, be they mask requirements, school closures/restrictions, event cancellations, etc.  In other parts of the world, they are still (foolishly in my view

I do worry a bit about the B.1.1.529    Sounds nasty and could fuck things up if it makes it to us   

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59424269

[52-80 19076]

vuvuzela variant is gonna kill you all

[kevwun 15608]

The South African variant is not looking good.  Get ready for another wave.

[Telegraph_it 3353]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The South African variant is not looking good.  Get ready for another wave.

We will know soon enough.

From WSJ:

Germany’s BioNTech SE, which developed one of the most commonly used Covid-19 vaccines together with Pfizer Inc., said it would take about two weeks to establish whether the new variant renders its shot less effective. If needed, a BioNTech spokeswoman said, the companies could produce a new vaccine adjusted to any variant within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days.

 

[52-80 19076]

some planes from south africa landing in europe airports are being held

[Satoshi 129]

 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

4 hours ago, kevwun said:

The South African variant is not looking good.  Get ready for another wave.

Yeah feels like when we started hearing about Delta.  

[Brisketexan 104537]

Yeah feels like when we started hearing about Delta.  

I gotta tell ya….I’m getting tired of this shit.

[idigTexas 2265]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I gotta tell ya….I’m getting tired of this shit.

So is everyone else, which is a main reason we are never going to get rid of it.  As long as there are ample opportunities for this thing to mutate, we are going to see these super-variants rise and spread.  Pray to your gods that we don't get a vaccine-immune, quick-spreading, extremely deadly version.  

[Brisketexan 104537]

So is everyone else, which is a main reason we are never going to get rid of it.  As long as there are ample opportunities for this thing to mutate, we are going to see these super-variants rise and spread.  Pray to your gods that we don't get a vaccine-immune, quick-spreading, extremely deadly version.  

I mean, we almost certainly WILL get that, because this fucking timeline.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I gotta tell ya….I’m getting tired of this shit.

The new South Park 1-hour special that came out yesterday was about the pandemic finally being over….after 40 years.  

[atomheartbevo 89396]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770
 

Quote

EU nations should impose an emergency flight ban on countries where a new coronavirus variant has been found, the European Commission has said, as Belgium confirmed a case.

The variant, currently known as B.1.1.529, has also been identified in South Africa, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.

 

Quote

Only about 24% of South Africa's population is fully vaccinated, which could spur a rapid spread of cases there, Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), told the BBC on Friday.

In Hong Kong, the infections were found in a person who had arrived from South Africa, and a guest in the same quarantine hotel who tested positive a few days later, the Department of Health revealed. Both were fully vaccinated.

 

[InkaUtexas 25486]

Covid will continue to mutate. It will be a major issue for both health and social components. Lock down =riots, no lock down = collapse of health care systems. Yay..... 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

Get used to the world Omicrom

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-59426277

Quote

The World Health Organization designates the new strain a "variant of concern" and gives it the Greek name Omicron

EU member states agree to halt travel to and from seven nations where the new highly mutated Covid variant has been found  

The Belgium came out of Egypt.  

Quote

One case has been confirmed in Europe - a person who arrived in Belgium from Egypt earlier this month

And guess fucking what.  Europeans are rushing home from South Africa so they don’t get stuck there.  That will end well.  

Edited November 26, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[UTGrad98 2257]

Omicron. Transform!

[52-80 19076]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Covid will continue to mutate. It will be a major issue for both health and social components. Lock down =riots, no lock down = collapse of health care systems. Yay..... 

i dunno in scandinavia there hasnt been lock downs and hasnt been mask requirements and vax rate is the same as US, but theres been no shouting matches in walmart over masks, no riots, and no collapse of health care systems...

[52-80 19076]

Just now, UTGrad98 said:

Omicron. Transform!

best strain is the Tri-Delt.  2nd best is the Scottish Rite strain.

[Telegraph_it 3353]

On 9/18/2021 at 1:26 PM, Telegraph_it said:

Well if one has Delta and the other has Mu…That’s how we get Omicron. That sounds scary as fuck. 

I knew Omicron would be bad. 
 

 

[DDD Dad 14243]

56 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

best strain is the Tri-Delt.  

My daughter agrees.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

52 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

My daughter agrees.

Absolutely - tri-delt because everybody else has.   

[atomheartbevo 89396]

US putting travel restrictions on the same countries.  Starting Monday.  So a shitload of people are now rushing to get back to the US.  

[StruggleBus 3922]

Why bother? It's already here

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Why bother? It's already here

But it looks like we’re doing something 

[GTX Horn 1707]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

US putting travel restrictions on the same countries.  Starting Monday.  So a shitload of people are now rushing to get back to the US.  

So basically between now and Monday a bunch of people are gonna come back in a rush and spread it that way

Edited November 26, 2021 by GTX Horn

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

So I have a cousin who is high ranking in the Cuban ministry of health. They just called me freaking out over this. The data coming in from their European contacts looks bad. 
 

if true. We probably need to cut flights to Europe. Won’t happen till it’s too late thou. 

Edited November 26, 2021 by ONE YARD

[atomheartbevo 89396]

4 minutes ago, GTX Horn said:

So basically between now and Monday a bunch of people are gonna come back in a rush and spread it that way

Yep, although:

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Why bother? It's already here

Given where they are finding it, I think it's a safe bet that it's in Texas.

I don't even know what they'd do at this point, given how wide open things are.  Maybe test everybody getting off the planes and do follow-up testing several days later. 

[Cody2422 264]

Disclaimer:  I went golfing and I’m drunk

 

Ya’ll are some attention seeking pussy bitches.  Live your life, vaccinate yourself as many times as you want, don’t get vaccinated if you don’t want to.  Masks don’t work but wear one if you want to.  Stop being so fucking afraid, live your life.  
 

Be nice to someone 

[South Austin 52105]

2 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

Ya’ll are some attention seeking pussy bitches.  
 

. . .
 

Be nice to someone 

 

[Cody2422 264]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

 

Your mom

[StruggleBus 3922]

46 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

Disclaimer:  I went golfing and I’m drunk

 

Ya’ll are some attention seeking pussy bitches.  Live your life, vaccinate yourself as many times as you want, don’t get vaccinated if you don’t want to.  Masks don’t work but wear one if you want to.  Stop being so fucking afraid, live your life.  
 

Be nice to someone 

You probably don’t even break 80

[DaysOff 7843]

Disclaimer:  I went golfing and I’m drunk
 
Ya’ll are some attention seeking pussy bitches.  Live your life, vaccinate yourself as many times as you want, don’t get vaccinated if you don’t want to.  Masks don’t work but wear one if you want to.  Stop being so fucking afraid, live your life.  
 
Be nice to someone 

Fuck you.

[Deej 76524]

1 hour ago, Cody2422 said:

 Masks don’t work

We'll never really know because so many refuse to wear them.

[Cody2422 264]

25 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

You probably don’t even break 80

Never have, shot 88 today and 81 is best ever

[Cody2422 264]

5 minutes ago, Deej said:

We'll never really know because so many refuse to wear them.

That’s bullshit, we know they don’t work.

[Cody2422 264]

24 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Fuck you.

Fuck you too buddy 

[Deej 76524]

6 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

That’s bullshit, we know they don’t work.

Hey everybody, alphahorn is back.

[DDD Dad 14243]

Never have, shot 88 today and 81 is best ever

If you can’t break 80 I have no use for you.

[Cody2422 264]

4 minutes ago, Deej said:

Hey everybody, alphahorn is back.

Hey everybody, (insert someone who doesn’t agree with me and the rest of the group think) is back

[Deej 76524]

Yep, it's alphahorn. 

[Cody2422 264]

1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

If you can’t break 80 I have no use for you.

Man you must run with an elite crowd then

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

18 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

Never have, shot 88 today and 81 is best ever

I routinely shoot in the low 60s. If I were to shoot in the 80s I’d consider it 9 holes wasted. 

[DDD Dad 14243]

4 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

Man you must run with an elite crowd then

@babysdaddy @capnamerca

its how we roll. 

[babysdaddy 2718]

What’s going on here?

[achooloco 1065]

On 11/25/2021 at 1:32 PM, Johnny Sack said:

If you have the shot and are worried about covid you just don’t care about the data. 
 

I don’t know why we need to worry about it at this point.  It’s past time to move on.  If you want to assume the risk and not get the shot, it’s on you.  
 

My kids aren’t getting jabbed. Because they’ve already had it. And I don’t believe Covid it poses a material risk to them. 

This is myopic bc of

On 11/25/2021 at 1:35 PM, DDD Dad said:

I’m not worried but watching trends. It’s not a problem until it is. That is to say, if the hospitals start filling up or access to therapeutics becomes scarce then it’s time to start worrying again.

This

[El Diablo 4232]

Readily available and highly effective treatments that don't strain the healthcare system is probably where we're headed as this thing seems to be fully integrated into our day to day lives. It's still a SARS so finding ways to treat those symptoms as best we can may be the best we can do. It may also be an entirely new and wholly separate healthcare institution for decades to come.

Disruptive, indeed. 

[Telegraph_it 3353]

Seems encouraging albeit not even a sample size.  Let’s see about the 60 people that tested positive at AMS from S. Africa. 
 

 

[Anastasis 23390]

This aggression against nu and xi should not be allowed to stand.