COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Telegraph_it 3354]

Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

What I don't get is that "they" are saying previous Delta doesn't mean immunity from Omicron. So I would take that to mean previous Omicron doesn't mean immunity from Delta. So are we essentially going to have twinadoes of virus going around?

 

yes. 

[Eskimohorn 5613]

We gonna start doing the 2021 version of chicken pox parties with Omicron?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Telegraph_it said:

 

yes. 

Why is Lincoln Riley doing math in that gif?

[Telegraph_it 3354]

4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Why is Lincoln Riley doing math in that gif?

How else is he going to count his paychecks. 

[Newdoc 3429]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What I don't get is that "they" are saying previous Delta doesn't mean immunity from Omicron. So I would take that to mean previous Omicron doesn't mean immunity from Delta. So are we essentially going to have twinadoes of virus going around?

Early data shows some protection against Omicron with previous infection but not a lot, vaccination alone seems to be better and previous variant infection and vaccination even better. There are so many variables within individuals as well. Omicron is going to spread very quickly with short doubling times. Cross fingers this doesn't end with serious disease for any percentage of the population. This could be more of an economic disrupter than serious hospital strain if large swaths of our population is at home on quarantine for 10 days at a time (even with mild illness). Outpatient clinics are going to potentially get overwhelmed. 

There are only preprint in vitro studies for immune protection as well and the media is going to FUBAR the results and get everyone in a panic regardless if needed. Horse is out of the barn now. Best thing to do is get immunized, get boosted if due and stay healthy.

Oh, and there is some concern Omicron is mutated enough to avoid certain PCR testing because the genetic markers PCR test for have changed. Rapid testing could be more accurate in some situations. Strange times. 

[Deej 76542]

3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What I don't get is that "they" are saying previous Delta doesn't mean immunity from Omicron. So I would take that to mean previous Omicron doesn't mean immunity from Delta. So are we essentially going to have twinadoes of virus going around?

Covidnadoes?

[Anastasis 23393]

35 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Oh, and there is some concern Omicron is mutated enough to avoid certain PCR testing because the genetic markers PCR test for have changed. Rapid testing could be more accurate in some situations. Strange times. 

Agree with everything in your post.  Just want to understand this part. My understanding was that the S channel drop out with omicron made it easily identifiable via standard PCR (and may have been part of the reason that it could have flown under the radar as an alpha strain early on in UK, EU, and Europe). Big fan of rapid tests though.  Even if the President's spokesman might not be. 

[Anastasis 23393]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

Covidnadoes?

COVIDeskimobros?

[Deej 76542]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

COVIDeskimobros?

[Newdoc 3429]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

My understanding was that the S channel drop out with omicron made it easily identifiable via standard PCR

There is apparently a BA.2 version of Omicron with further genetic variation that gives false negatives on certain PCR tests. Not sure of the specifics. It’s my understanding that some rapid PCR testing is to blame. Possibly due to limited sequencing for specific genetic markers??

[BonzoMontreaux 1033]

On 9/3/2021 at 2:56 PM, BonzoMontreaux said:

My youngest daughter is pregnant right now.  Had RSV this past week and has been tested twice for Covid.  Negative both times.  She is due late November early December. 

She wanted to get vaccinated after her pregnancy started and as delta was doing it's thing but because of an auto-immune disorder her doctor did not recommend it.  Not sure of all the specifics regarding this, only what I am told.

Anyway, because of the things like @whithou (hang in there and God bless)described, it has definitely caused some hand wringing having her have to navigate this. 

I fully expect to be holding my 1st grandson this time in December and having my daughter healthy and recovering but dang.  

Grandson is here! Over a week old now and healthy.  Daughter had to be readmitted a few days after being released.  She is back home and on the mend.  Had some issues that were hopefully just caused by the pregnancy and delivery.  Still waiting to find some things out.  Tested for Covid and Flu both negative btw.

Relative to Covid - only one person at a time was allowed into the hospital to see her and the new baby.  Later in the day, after a shift change, we were allowed to at least stay in the Lobby.  Baylor Scott and White in McKinney.

Second stay closer to their house - BSW - Ft. Worth - They only allowed one visitor a day outside of a spouse.  

tl;dr Got a healthy new born grandson and somewhat healthy daughter.  Hospital visitation policies are tough on loved ones.

 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Woman in my office-healthy, works out, mid-30s (no pics) was at death's door with COVID 2-3 weeks ago.  ICU, oxygen tank, etc. 

She is back at work (??) but can't really take normal breaths - pauses a lot talking to breathe.  She said no one ever told her which strain she had and AFASK they never checked.  Is that typical?

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

4 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Woman in my office-healthy, works out, mid-30s (no pics) was at death's door with COVID 2-3 weeks ago.  ICU, oxygen tank, etc. 

She is back at work (??) but can't really take normal breaths - pauses a lot talking to breathe.  She said no one ever told her which strain she had and AFASK they never checked.  Is that typical?

She vaxxed? If not, then yes its typical

[Dontshootrude 373]

 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danvergano/covid-test-false-positive-failure-cdc-documents

 

Buzzfeed is normally trash, but this article is by far the most comprehensive and accurate description of the testing disaster in early 2020. Really good read.

 

 

[Dontshootrude 373]

On 12/7/2021 at 8:10 PM, Newdoc said:

Early data shows some protection against Omicron with previous infection but not a lot, vaccination alone seems to be better and previous variant infection and vaccination even better. There are so many variables within individuals as well. Omicron is going to spread very quickly with short doubling times. Cross fingers this doesn't end with serious disease for any percentage of the population. This could be more of an economic disrupter than serious hospital strain if large swaths of our population is at home on quarantine for 10 days at a time (even with mild illness). Outpatient clinics are going to potentially get overwhelmed. 

There are only preprint in vitro studies for immune protection as well and the media is going to FUBAR the results and get everyone in a panic regardless if needed. Horse is out of the barn now. Best thing to do is get immunized, get boosted if due and stay healthy.

Oh, and there is some concern Omicron is mutated enough to avoid certain PCR testing because the genetic markers PCR test for have changed. Rapid testing could be more accurate in some situations. Strange times. 

FYI: the S gene PCR is never run in isolation.  The N gene is the major target of every assay I can think of, including the CDC and WHO tests, and those targets are conserved among all the variants seen thus far.  I don't worry very much about false negatives from mutations at this point, and PCR is still far more accurate than the antigen tests.

[Axle Hongsnort 208]

Got my second test result from the cares CPL study. Second of initial Moderna shots in April, come September I scored 771…just did second draw and got 512.

It may be upthread, but how are people thinking about boosters with vax antibodies +500?

[utee94 15745]

45 minutes ago, Axle Hongsnort said:

Got my second test result from the cares CPL study. Second of initial Moderna shots in April, come September I scored 771…just did second draw and got 512.

It may be upthread, but how are people thinking about boosters with vax antibodies +500?

As far as I know, there are still no peer-reviewed studies correlating the recorded antibody level, with amount of resistance to the virus.  More is likely better, but we have no idea what the floor for "good enough" might be, especially since those antibodies are only one part of the human body's multi-part system for fighting off disease.

 

[Anastasis 23393]

1 hour ago, Axle Hongsnort said:

Got my second test result from the cares CPL study. Second of initial Moderna shots in April, come September I scored 771…just did second draw and got 512.

It may be upthread, but how are people thinking about boosters with vax antibodies +500?

I don't really care what the AB levels are, I would boost. 

[Anastasis 23393]

21 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

FYI: the S gene PCR is never run in isolation.  The N gene is the major target of every assay I can think of, including the CDC and WHO tests, and those targets are conserved among all the variants seen thus far.  I don't worry very much about false negatives from mutations at this point, and PCR is still far more accurate than the antigen tests.

Is it a correct understanding that their are three channels?  S, N, and control?

My understanding is that the omicron is easily picked up by PCR with the S drops. 

Which might explain some curious trends in S dropped PCR results in UK and US even prior to SA identifying omicron...broad circulation of omicron before SA picked up on it. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Anastasis

[Dontshootrude 373]

14 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Is it a correct understanding that their are three channels?  S, N, and control?

My understanding is that the omicron is easily picked up by PCR with the S drops. 

Which might explain some curious trends in S dropped PCR results in UK and US even prior to SA identifying omicron...broad circulation of omicron before SA picked up on it. 

There are actually 4 targets in the Thermofisher kit which is used by a large number of labs in the US and Europe.

The PCR amplifies separate targets in the ORF1ab, S, and N genes, along with a control (MS2).  

https://www.thermofisher.com/us/en/home/clinical/clinical-genomics/pathogen-detection-solutions/covid-19-sars-cov-2/multiplex.html?SID=fr-taqpath-2

The S gene drops because of a deletion in the region targeted by the TaqMan probe that coincidentally was also in the UK (alpha) variant.  The N and ORF1ab targets are conserved and therefore will amplify when omicron is present.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Dontshootrude

[StruggleBus 3922]

52 minutes ago, Dontshootrude said:

There are actually 4 targets in the Thermofisher kit which is used by a large number of labs in the US and Europe.

The PCR amplifies separate targets in the ORF1ab, S, and N genes, along with a control (MS2).  

https://www.thermofisher.com/us/en/home/clinical/clinical-genomics/pathogen-detection-solutions/covid-19-sars-cov-2/multiplex.html?SID=fr-taqpath-2

The S gene drops because of a deletion in the region targeted by the TaqMan probe that coincidentally was also in the UK (alpha) variant.  The N and ORF1ab targets are conserved and therefore will amplify when omicron is present.

[dmtx 159]

I read this earlier today, I'm hoping this is what pans out

Michael Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota

BERGEN: Do we know how deadly the Omicron variant is compared to previous variants?

OSTERHOLM: While it's early, I believe that Omicron is less virulent than Delta. The variant is being studied in South Africa, which is important because the virus has been in that country longer than others. And we do know that hospitalizations, serious illness and deaths are lagging indicators. Rates often rise two to three weeks after rises in case numbers start to occur. But as of today, the epidemiologic and clinical data on Omicron cases around the world support this virus is less lethal than Delta.

When I look at these major Covid case clusters that are occurring right now, the outbreaks in Norway, Denmark, and in the UK, it's been quite remarkable to see how many of these large numbers of cases involve fully vaccinated people, and how often these have resulted in very mild illnesses.

[CycleTex87 2953]

3 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

so good (and my response as well)

[Bevo 13524]

3 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

 

The primer has to bind to the viral nucleic acid for replication to occur. The current primers bind to 2 of the omicron viral nucleic acid targets but not to the S target.

 

[ABSR 5289]

6 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

User name checks out.   And I may need to change my user name to "StruggleBus 2"

[Newdoc 3429]

5 hours ago, dmtx said:

read this earlier today

Osterholm has been putting out panic porn quotes since this thing started. He’s been partially right some of the time but I think he has a look at me, I’m a scientist mantra. However he echos what many are saying about the variant’s virulence. Hope they are all right bc we still suck at vaccine coverage.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

12 deaths for the week ending Dec 10th in Travis County. This compares to 11 for the same rough period last year.

They break down by age as follows:

30 to 39 (1)

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (1)

60 to 69 (3)

70 to 79 (3)

80+ (3)

[InkaUtexas 25496]

Thank you @BrazilHorn

 

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:57 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Thank you @BrazilHorn

 

 

No problem my man. Once Travis Co dorked the daily case info, I decided that was a sign to step back from that piece, but I am happy to keep tracking the weekly deaths by age group. Will throw some charts together over the holiday break showing the trends by age group.

[Guest]

I assume that Travis doesn't release vaxxed vs. unvaxxed? I'm still amazed that the same amount of people are dying as last year when we have the vaccines. And at least in this area there is solid coverage. 

[KaiserSoze 997]

43 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I assume that Travis doesn't release vaxxed vs. unvaxxed? I'm still amazed that the same amount of people are dying as last year when we have the vaccines. And at least in this area there is solid coverage. 

 

Pretty sure that all the ones dying are peeps who are still "doing their own research"... we're not losing anyone who matters- it's just the morons who are dying at this point. 

[Guest]

Just now, KaiserSoze said:

 

Pretty sure that all the ones dying are peeps who are still "doing their own research"... we're not losing anyone who matters- it's just the morons who are dying at this point. 

Meh. I'm not trying to dunk on anyone. We all know not getting the vax isn't smart. I'm just genuinely surprised that the numbers seem untouched from a year ago when 100% were unvaccinated.

[KaiserSoze 997]

Keep doing your own research, bro

[BrazilHorn 6576]

55 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I assume that Travis doesn't release vaxxed vs. unvaxxed? I'm still amazed that the same amount of people are dying as last year when we have the vaccines. And at least in this area there is solid coverage. 

I have not seen it released that way on a regular (dashboard) basis but a lot of the macro level stuff showed that ~80% or so of those hospitalized were un-vaxxed

[Guest]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

I have not seen it released that way on a regular (dashboard) basis but a lot of the macro level stuff showed that ~80% or so of those hospitalized were un-vaxxed

Yeah, that's what I would assume. 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Yeah, that's what I would assume. 

Just saw an article where from Feb to July 99.5% of all CV19 deaths in Travis Co where unvaccinated. Not sure if any other data has been updated.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Just saw an article where from Feb to July 99.5% of all CV19 deaths in Travis Co where unvaccinated. Not sure if any other data has been updated.

How is this possible? There were 12 deaths last week and 11 a year ago, but cases looked to be much higher in the year ago period. Meanwhile most of us are vaxxed, triple vaxxed, and/or have previous infection.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

8 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

How is this possible? There were 12 deaths last week and 11 a year ago, but cases looked to be much higher in the year ago period. Meanwhile most of us are vaxxed, triple vaxxed, and/or have previous infection.

It’s saying that for that 4 mos period the overwhelming majority of deaths were from those not vaccinated. Makes sense to me. 
 

 

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Here are some more recent stats from the Texas Department of Health site

Key Findings

1. From September 4 through October 1, 2021:
   • Unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people.
   • Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people.
2. Vaccination had a strong protective effect on infections and deaths among people of all ages. The protective impact on infections was consistent across adult age groups and even greater in people ages 12 to 17 years. The protective impact on COVID-19 deaths, which was high for all age groups, varied more widely. In the September time frame, unvaccinated people in their 40s were 55 times more likely to die from COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated people of the same age. Unvaccinated people aged 75 years and older were 12 times more likely to die than their vaccinated counterparts.
3. Overall, regardless of vaccination status, people in Texas were four to five times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 or suffer a COVID-19-associated death while the Delta variant was prevalent in Texas (August 2021) compared with a period before the Delta variant became prevalent (April 2021).

Overall crude case rate (daily 7-day moving average) by vaccination status from Jan. 15, 2021 to Oct. 1, 2021

Overall crude death rate (daily 7-day moving average) by vaccination status from Jan. 15, 2021 to Oct. 1, 2021

[smoky 837]

32 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Just saw an article where from Feb to July 99.5% of all CV19 deaths in Travis Co where unvaccinated. Not sure if any other data has been updated.

Either that's true and we don't need boosters or that's full of shit because there have to be 95 years olds with breakthrough cases that have have died from C19 complications.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

4 minutes ago, smoky said:

Either that's true and we don't need boosters or that's full of shit because there have to be 95 years olds with breakthrough cases that have have died from C19 complications.

here's the link. It is a small period of time but here it is.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

9 hours ago, smoky said:

Either that's true and we don't need boosters or that's full of shit because there have to be 95 years olds with breakthrough cases that have have died from C19 complications.

It is possible an old person is unvaccinated 

[texastough 1128]

11 hours ago, smoky said:

Either that's true and we don't need boosters or that's full of shit because there have to be 95 years olds with breakthrough cases that have have died from C19 complications.

You have to remember that from February through July is when most people were getting vaccinated. So early in that period (say, Feb-April) the vast majority of people were unvaccinated so its not surprising that 99.5% of deaths were unvaccinated

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It is possible an old person is unvaccinated 

Especially in Texas 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

is vax status self reported in these studies?  or is our system's ability to keep track of who actually was vaxed good enough we just rely on that?

[Trey3216 15325]

7 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It is possible an old person is unvaccinated 

It's also possible they died of...old  

[atomheartbevo 89409]

Three Omikron cases at UT

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/omicron-variant-cases-in-travis-county-found-at-ut-austin/

 

[Anastasis 23393]

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Three Omikron cases at UT

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/omicron-variant-cases-in-travis-county-found-at-ut-austin/

 

On Monday, Austin Public Health learned of the positive cases from University of Texas Austin Health Services and UT says the individuals did not travel internationally — strongly indicating community transmission in Austin-Travis County. Additionally, the three cases are not linked to each other.

 

Shit be everywhere. 

[utee94 15745]

Just now, Anastasis said:

On Monday, Austin Public Health learned of the positive cases from University of Texas Austin Health Services and UT says the individuals did not travel internationally — strongly indicating community transmission in Austin-Travis County. Additionally, the three cases are not linked to each other.

 

Shit be everywhere. 

and has been for some time.  

[Skipper 6103]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

and has been for some time.  

I assume that's right.  I mean what percentage of US infections by this point are (i) actually reported and (ii) sequenced.  I mean thousands of people are popping positive on home COVID tests then just quarantining and never official stats.  I know or know of a lot of people in that category the past month.