COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[bschoolprof 6352]

55 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

stolen from Reddit. This dude graphs published covid data. It's a GREAT source for up to date status of hospitalization and deaths. 

TLDR: Omicron hospitalization is increasing but deaths aren't rising, yet anyway.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_campaign=rw56km

 

That's where I post all my graphs from.  Great data.  

11 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s fascinating that a massive spike in cases coincides with a steep drop in deaths. That could result from several causes (time delay, earlier spikes killing off the vulnerable, etc.), but one possible reason is that the spike is Omicron and it swamped out the more deadly Delta. Essentially, a weaker but far more contagious disease is making a ton of people sick but saving them from death. 

The death data drop is an artifact of a lag in death reporting.  It's illusory and he (the data aggregator) has that flagged on his site.  Put another way, for any given snapshot of this data taken at any given time, there will always be a recent drop in deaths.  

Edited January 5, 2022 by bschoolprof

[Anastasis 23718]

48 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

stolen from Reddit. This dude graphs published covid data. It's a GREAT source for up to date status of hospitalization and deaths. 

TLDR: Omicron hospitalization is increasing but deaths aren't rising, yet anyway.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?utm_source=reddit.com&utm_campaign=rw56km

 

Great link. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

19 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

 

The death data drop is an artifact of a lag in death reporting.  It's illusory and he (the data aggregator) has that flagged on his site.  Put another way, for any given snapshot of this data taken at any given time, there will always be a recent drop in deaths.  

[bschoolprof 6352]

As discussed upthread, a significant portion of the upticks we see in covid hospitalizations and ICU census is due to widespread testing - i.e., people that came to the hospital for something else, but test positive for covid.  In LA for example, roughly two-thirds of recent "Covid hospitalizations" were people who tested positive but were admitted for something else.  This is a point/distinction lost on most people.  

To help mitigate the "with covid, but not for covid" issue, I like to look at the overall ICU census (the total # of people in the ICU) at the state and local level. This tells us how many critically ill people are being cared for, and if car wreck Joe happens to test positive for covid, it will increase the covid ICU count, but not the overall ICU count (assuming a steady state of car wreck Joes).  Anyway, notice how the covid ICU census has ticked up recently (the orange line). 

However, using this same dataset, the overall ICU census has not ticked up at all, at least not yet. 

 

That's good news.

[BabaYaga 15631]

23 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The death data drop is an artifact of a lag in death reporting.  It's illusory and he (the data aggregator) has that flagged on his site.  Put another way, for any given snapshot of this data taken at any given time, there will always be a recent drop in deaths.  

Then we'd expect an expanded snapshot layered over a larger period of time to give better context?  It does seem fatalities are on the decline as vax rates, immunity, and treatment options have expanded.

[bschoolprof 6352]

5 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I redeemed my self tho.  

[Skipper 6412]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

  It does seem fatalities are on the decline as vax rates, immunity, and treatment options have expanded.

It's this combined with Omicron which at this point indisputably resulting in less severe cases.  It seems like it's flat out less likely to infect lung cells and bring on COVID pneumonia.  It may be "too early" in most places in the US but there is sufficient data in SA and Europe at this point that pretty much every reasonable COVID resource I follow is stating this as a fact and it's really only the COVID alarmists that are still saying too early to know anything.   The speculation is that a lot of the current ICU/deaths in the NE over the last few weeks are still Delta.  

The Texas Cares study stated that as of October (I think, someone correct me if date wrong), they estimate Texas over 75% of Texans had either vaccinated or naturally acquired immunity or both.  Considering we've had (i) a massive Delta wave, (ii) increased Vax/naturally acquired immunity since that wave and (iii) evidence Omicron is less severe, I'm going to be pretty surprised if Texas ICU's fill to the brink with severe cases like we saw with Delta. 

[Billy Pilgrim 2079]

Take solace in the fact that there’s a shit ton of new cases but the hospitalizations aren’t going up proportionally. That’s progress. 

[Anastasis 23718]

29 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

As discussed upthread, a significant portion of the upticks we see in covid hospitalizations and ICU census is due to widespread testing - i.e., people that came to the hospital for something else, but test positive for covid.  In LA for example, roughly two-thirds of recent "Covid hospitalizations" were people who tested positive but were admitted for something else.  This is a point/distinction lost on most people.  

To help mitigate the "with covid, but not for covid" issue, I like to look at the overall ICU census (the total # of people in the ICU) at the state and local level. This tells us how many critically ill people are being cared for, and if car wreck Joe happens to test positive for covid, it will increase the covid ICU count, but not the overall ICU count (assuming a steady state of car wreck Joes).  Anyway, notice how the covid ICU census has ticked up recently (the orange line). 

However, using this same dataset, the overall ICU census has not ticked up at all, at least not yet. 

 

That's good news.

 

This is in line with what I was getting in my comment earlier asking for all-cause admission data.  You are right that the ICU data appears to more clearly resolve the trends. I ended up plotting available beds vs. C19 Hospital admits.  Each of the prior waves was associated with a downward trend in available beds as C19 admits increased, which reversed as the wave subsided. This one is not yet showing a decrease in the available beds, but the data need more run. Just too early to draw firm conclusions. 

[bschoolprof 6352]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Then we'd expect an expanded snapshot layered over a larger period of time to give better context?  It does seem fatalities are on the decline as vax rates, immunity, and treatment options have expanded.

Yes, I'm hopeful we will see much lower covid deaths with this wave. Another issue of course is that death counts too are contaminated by the "with, not because of" problem, and because so many people will catch Omicron, covid death counts with this wave in particular may be significantly overstated.  

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

My throat hurts. Will I die?

[South Austin 53269]

7 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

My throat hurts. Will I die?

No, just don't take it so deep next time.

[MrBig 5652]

39 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Yes, I'm hopeful we will see much lower covid deaths with this wave. Another issue of course is that death counts too are contaminated by the "with, not because of" problem, and because so many people will catch Omicron, covid death counts with this wave in particular may be significantly overstated.  

It’s all about the wording of the statistics. I knew a guy who was killed in a “drunk driving” accident. He was above .08 but was going through an intersection with a green light when some street racing asshole ran the red and T-boned him at the intersection. Statistically counts as a drunk driving fatality. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

My son-in-law's family has it now, one vaxed, the teenager not vaxed.  They are devout Catholics and were at St. Martins in Dripping Springs Sunday.  They probably either caught it there, or spread it there given they tested positive yesterday.  Be interested to see how many of the congregation get it since most don't mask and a lot of them are anti-vax.   Not optimal because the mother (vaxed) who has it now can't see her elderly dad, who is in the hospital with pneumonia and probably dying.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

No, just don't take it so deep next time.

Guess I have more to learn.  Does your mom provide lessons ? heheh

[BearSchlong 8252]

I've got Omicron.  Vaxxed x 2 Pfizer but not boosted.

Went to my doc yesterday and had quick nasal swab test for flu and covid which were negative.  Blood test for Omicron was positive, results came in this morning.

OG Covid was WAYYYYY worse for me, that was 3 weeks of fever with pulse oxymeter hovering near 90, followed by a cough and fatigue that lingered for another month.

Omicron so far is headache, drainage, and a cough.  No taste/smell loss, no brain fog.  O2 around 97. 

Symptoms suck but are liveable. Doc says I'm getting antibody infusion this week.

Wife is negative but also has measurable antibodies, I suspect she had it recently but didn't know it.

Key takeaway is that the swab quick test missed it.

[GTX Horn 1725]

1 hour ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

My throat hurts. Will I die?

[Skipper 6412]

18 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

 

Symptoms suck but are liveable. Doc says I'm getting antibody infusion this week.

 

It probably can't hurt but is there an antibody infusion that we know works for omicron?   I know some don't.

[South Austin 53269]

26 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

I've got Omicron.  Vaxxed x 2 Pfizer but not boosted.

Went to my doc yesterday and had quick nasal swab test for flu and covid which were negative.  Blood test for Omicron was positive, results came in this morning.

OG Covid was WAYYYYY worse for me, that was 3 weeks of fever with pulse oxymeter hovering near 90, followed by a cough and fatigue that lingered for another month.

Omicron so far is headache, drainage, and a cough.  No taste/smell loss, no brain fog.  O2 around 97. 

Symptoms suck but are liveable. Doc says I'm getting antibody infusion this week.

Wife is negative but also has measurable antibodies, I suspect she had it recently but didn't know it.

Key takeaway is that the swab quick test missed it.

Hmm.  Seems like you shouldn't leave your house until 2023.

[Jshep34 2426]

What is the antibody transfusion? Why are you getting it?

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[BearSchlong 8252]

I'm not sure which one, my research says that only a few show effectiveness, possibly the Sovotrimab by GlaxoSmithKlein?

Need to talk to my MD and find out what she's thinking.

I feel like Forrest Gump. "And or course I got Covid. Again."

Edited January 5, 2022 by BearSchlong

[Billy Pilgrim 2079]

1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:

I've got Omicron.  Vaxxed x 2 Pfizer but not boosted.

Went to my doc yesterday and had quick nasal swab test for flu and covid which were negative.  Blood test for Omicron was positive, results came in this morning.

OG Covid was WAYYYYY worse for me, that was 3 weeks of fever with pulse oxymeter hovering near 90, followed by a cough and fatigue that lingered for another month.

Omicron so far is headache, drainage, and a cough.  No taste/smell loss, no brain fog.  O2 around 97. 

Symptoms suck but are liveable. Doc says I'm getting antibody infusion this week.

Wife is negative but also has measurable antibodies, I suspect she had it recently but didn't know it.

Key takeaway is that the swab quick test missed it.

Why would you get an antibody infusion if your symptoms aren’t bad? Why not save it for someone who may need it?

[BearSchlong 8252]

My area has 5 infusion centers that were idle until earlier this week, and because my Doc told me to.  I'm assured I'm not taking a treatment from someone else.

At the time I found out about the positive first thing this morning I wasn't sure if symptoms were getting worse or better.  Also the first week of OG Covid I thought was not a big deal but week 2 kicked my ass, so I wasn't about to refuse the appointment based on incomplete information even though this variant seems to be milder.

The message from my doc's office was "you've got Omicron" but that's according to symptoms, not a positive ID.  I could have delta but with slightly different symptoms.

I felt good this afternoon but now I can't stop coughing and I hurt.  So "not bad" is relative to OG Covid where I had moments when I thought I was actually dying.

Also I have elderly vaccinated and boosted parents and any treatment that might reduce the risk of me catching a future variant and passing it to them is of interest.  I haven't done the research on that yet.  I do know that if I wasn't covid positive I would be at my mother's house right now as she is having a plumbing issue that flooded her house today.

I have another point to make but this isn't the CR so I'll refrain.

Edited January 6, 2022 by BearSchlong

[Buzzrock 15148]

This thread picked up speed: has there been any data on the impact of Omicron on vaxxed vs not vaxxed? If the impact isn’t much different that will be interesting.

[Skipper 6412]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

This thread picked up speed: has there been any data on the impact of Omicron on vaxxed vs not vaxxed? If the impact isn’t much different that will be interesting.

Early data out of NYC is that hospitalizations are still way more likely to be unvaxed vs. vaxed. Saw tweets on this from Eric Topol this evening.  It seems that if unvaxed your overall risk of being hospitalized should be lower with Omicron compared to Detla but your relative risk compared to vaxed population still way higher.   

Older, overweight and unvaxed still seems like still playing with fire.  Guess we'll find out for sure over the next few weeks.

[Basil 775]

I’ve been loosely keeping up with stats but not following them too hard. I am confused. Worldometer says 700k cases just today in the US. Even assuming Omicron is less severe, don’t we still have a hospitalization disaster looming?

I mean that like, what, 1 of every 450 Americans getting diagnosed today? Even if .5% of those end up at the hospital, they will be overrun in a week or two. Or am I missing something?

[Axle Hongsnort 211]

where did you get the 0.5% hospitalization rate ?

[Basil 775]

where did you get the 0.5% hospitalization rate ?

Nowhere. It’s an estimation based on little. But a small percentage of a very large number is itself a large number. We have the very large initial number (infections) and I haven’t seen much on how that will translate into hospitalizations. Thought there would be more data on that subject.

[Basil 775]

Butthole

[GreenspointTexas 9992]

Monoclonal antibody treatments dont work on omicron

[Pato del Muerto 53601]

3 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Monoclonal antibody treatments dont work on omicron

Have we tried the horse paste?

[HiggyBaby 2621]

^^ So we are 2/3rds the way through a master bathroom remodel. Head contractor has come down with Covid. Unvaccinated and he has it bad. Currently on Ivermectin. Sure hope it works. I mean yeah for his sake but I’ve been out of my damn bathroom for a month already.

[BearSchlong 8252]

46 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Monoclonal antibody treatments dont work on omicron

With the exception of GSK which might work a little bit?

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

13 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

This thread picked up speed: has there been any data on the impact of Omicron on vaxxed vs not vaxxed? If the impact isn’t much different that will be interesting.

If you’ve had two shots, especially far removed, it appears they provide minimal protection against infection, although some protection against severe disease is intact. If you’re boosted you have increased protection against infection and severe illness with waning beginning at about 10 weeks out. 

[South Austin 53269]

22 minutes ago, HiggyBaby said:

^^ So we are 2/3rds the way through a master bathroom remodel. Head contractor has come down with Covid. Unvaccinated and he has it bad. Currently on Ivermectin. Sure hope it works. I mean yeah for his sake but I’ve been out of my damn bathroom for a month already.

$100 bucks says he's working another job.

[CooterBrown 18289]

^^ So we are 2/3rds the way through a master bathroom remodel. Head contractor has come down with Covid. Unvaccinated and he has it bad. Currently on Ivermectin. Sure hope it works. I mean yeah for his sake but I’ve been out of my damn bathroom for a month already.

Make sure you don’t pay him until he recovers. You may have just gotten a partial remodel for free.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, HiggyBaby said:

^^ So we are 2/3rds the way through a master bathroom remodel. Head contractor has come down with Covid. Unvaccinated and he has it bad. Currently on Ivermectin. Sure hope it works. I mean yeah for his sake but I’ve been out of my damn bathroom for a month already.

Is he good?  When we redid our kitchen the job would have been done better and faster if our contractor sent his workers and a translator and just stayed home.

[Knoxtnhorn 6312]

Got it.

Tuesday night, I felt like I had "bonked".  No energy; weird feeling.  Yesterday morning, I started getting a headache.  By the afternoon, I was feeling pretty crappy.  Started running a fever last night that got up to 102.7.  The weird thing is that I only had body aches and the fever.  No cough, throat was fine, nose was fine.  This morning, I got both the rapid and PCR.  Rapid came back positive.  I think the worst is over because I feel much better right now.

FWIW, two Pfizers; no booster.

[alincoln 2391]

The US data is unsurprisingly horrible so you have to look to countries like the UK for guidance.  In the UK (another nation with high obesity levels although not as high as the US), hospitalizations and deaths have remained relatively stable compared to the period before the onset of omicron.  The UK does have significantly higher vaccination rates than the US (45% of adults have had a third shot). 

This dude continues to have the best data interpretation summaries I have seen:

 

[dcbc 14645]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

$100 bucks says he's working another job.

Or at his Bayhouse.

[Herbie Hancock 7503]

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2022/01/06/medstar-crews-treating-more-covid-patients/?fbclid=IwAR11E61POxI4ZZp9KXz8QMaJKSGZSfU79awjK7smV1bMNbHojXhVOmGnjHU
 

 

Quote

FORT WORTH (CBSDFW.COM) – MedStar said on January 6 that the average number of potential COVID-19 patients treated by their crews each day is higher than ever before.

Between January 1 and 5, the average number of potential patients rose to 146 per day, a 112% rate of increase from November that MedStar described as “concerning.”

 

[4th_and_18 709]

^^ So we are 2/3rds the way through a master bathroom remodel. Head contractor has come down with Covid. Unvaccinated and he has it bad. Currently on Ivermectin. Sure hope it works. I mean yeah for his sake but I’ve been out of my damn bathroom for a month already.

He takes shortcuts with his own health and you think he cares about your remodel?

[Jshep34 2426]

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[BigDHornfan 6635]

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2022/01/06/medstar-crews-treating-more-covid-patients/?fbclid=IwAR11E61POxI4ZZp9KXz8QMaJKSGZSfU79awjK7smV1bMNbHojXhVOmGnjHU
 
 

FORT WORTH (CBSDFW.COM) – MedStar said on January 6 that the average number of potential COVID-19 patients treated by their crews each day is higher than ever before.

Between January 1 and 5, the average number of potential patients rose to 146 per day, a 112% rate of increase from November that MedStar described as “concerning.”

 

Man I feel for you and your fellow co workers.
The amount of stupidity and fuckery you have to deal with on a daily basis is insane.
Don’t fucking call 911 for Covid.

[Surly Bevo 25778]

4 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Rented em out to one them Alabama Covid parties.

[Captainant 28600]

9 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

sprite and chicken soup, yo

[StruggleBus 3922]

6 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Mine both did. They both ran a fever for a couple hours and then were back to normal. Just gave them some Tylenol for the fever and let them play in the backyard for a few days.

Both have been sick with pretty much everything in their time on earth. RSV, flu,  and norovirus were all much bigger deals than Covid for both of them. Ages 4 and 6.

[Herbie Hancock 7503]

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

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Keep an eye on them. Tylenol/Motrin for fever, watch for any sign of increased respiratory rate or work of breathing. Unless your kid has underlying health issues don’t freak out. Kids are resilient. And most importantly, don’t disregard your parental intuition. As a parent, you know when your kid isn’t right and you should act accordingly. Also, take the advice of your doctor and not internet assholes.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Any of yalls kids get covid lately? If so what did ya do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Shag answer: Got to cut 'em loose. They had a good run. Time to live outside for a week. Here's a tent.

Real answer: He had a slight fever, coughed twice and then was ok. Plus he gave it to me. Just kept on as normal in the house. No real use in trying to quarantine a five year old.

[Herbie Hancock 7503]

 

Man I feel for you and your fellow co workers.
The amount of stupidity and fuckery you have to deal with on a daily basis is insane.
Don’t fucking call 911 for Covid.

Dealing with dumbassery is part of the job. I tell every new hire this ain’t reality tv(Departed reference). 85% of our calls for service are medical, and probably 90% of those could be handled by google or a quack shack.

I signed up to deal with an overwhelmingly large amount of dumb shit just for a chance to get to be a part of the 10% that actually effects a positive change. I’m a sick fuck.