COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[InkaUtexas 26944]

@troph  Mind DM'ing me the group? I need to do mine. no real rush, but the post office here is terribad. 

 

[ABSR 5372]

5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

More "with/for" fun. From here:

One month ago (12/10/21), there were 46 "covid" patients in the ICU in the Austin area, which was about 9% of total (open + occupied) ICU beds.  

As of today (1/10/22), these numbers have tripled: 137 covid patients in the ICU, for about 28% of the total.

However, over that time period, the total number of people in the ICU in the Austin area hasn't budged at all.  It's gone from 447 total patients to 446. ICUs are as full now as they were before this surge started, at least locally. So that's nice and we have that going for us.  

An interesting question with this would be how many of the ICU patients are there because of Covid or were admitted for something else and just tested positive as well.

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

1 minute ago, ABSR said:

An interesting question with this would be how many of the ICU patients are there because of Covid or were admitted for something else and just tested positive as well.

That’s his point. Since there’s been no net increase in icu beds taken despite 3x icu patients being Covid positive, the only two conclusions are that normal icu admissions are down the same amount as Covid admissions are up, or that it’s all with Covid but not for Covid- with the distinction being where they are housed and the ppe of the attending care givers. 

[South Austin 53261]

I’m not trying to deliberately catch COVID, but I’m definitely engaging in riskier behavior for Stage 5 purposes later this week. I have my firm’s annual partner dinner on Thursday, and then restaurant meals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for my girlfriend’s birthday weekend, all of which are indoors because it’s only going to reach highs on the 50s.

Still wearing masks in the office, at HEB, etc. But this week may eliminate me from the COVID hide-and-seek tournament.

[Bevo 13923]

7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’m not trying to deliberately catch COVID, but I’m definitely engaging in riskier behavior for Stage 5 purposes later this week. I have my firm’s annual partner dinner on Thursday, and then restaurant meals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for my girlfriend’s birthday weekend, all of which are indoors because it’s only going to reach highs on the 50s.

Still wearing masks in the office, at HEB, etc. But this week may eliminate me from the COVID hide-and-seek tournament.

Hey, in case things go south with the covid thing can you post pics of your girlfriend? Being a surly member, I care and want to make sure your loved ones are well taken care of in case you leave this earth.

[South Austin 53261]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Hey, in case things go south with the covid thing can you post pics of your girlfriend? Being a surly member, I care and want to make sure your loved ones are well taken care of in case you leave this earth.

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

10 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Yeah not surprised with the way things are now. But there are places that will expedite it for like $300.  Same day/next.  There is one in Houston for sure.  Damn I wish I could remember the name.  I’ll dig around my personal email and see if I used that (I was at another company at the time).  I think @Pescado_Rojo had to fly somewhere to get one in short order not long ago iirc?

The expedite services have been closed for a while now due to the short staffing of the Passport offices due to covid. (at least they were this time last year) We were able to get an urgent travel appointment in Tucson and flew out there the night before, and flew back the next evening. It was a huge pain in the ass, and frankly we were lucky to get it. Urgent travel has to be within 5 days, they open appointments at like, 1:00 AM, and you have to pretty much sit and refresh multiple browsers for different locations and hope you hit on one. It helps to have a couple people helping you and you have to be ready to travel on short notice to whatever office you hit on. 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/get-fast.html

[Reynolds Woodcock 5101]

Not that anyone should need more proof on the efficacy of vaccines, but to further illustrate the point, some trends in NYC and Seattle during the recent Omicron surge.
 

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

6 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Not that anyone should need more proof on the efficacy of vaccines, but to further illustrate the point, some trends in NYC and Seattle during the recent Omicron surge.
 

 

The hordes of anti-vaxxers are literally too stupid to breathe. Sad, really. I have a few friends that have been reasonable, intelligent people their entire lives. And now they are fucking anti-vaxxers. 

[Bevo 13923]

30 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'm sure she has a good support system.

[Bevo 13923]

16 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Not that anyone should need more proof on the efficacy of vaccines, but to further illustrate the point, some trends in NYC and Seattle during the recent Omicron surge.
 

 

David needs to work on his English.

[Bevo 13923]

10 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

The hordes of anti-vaxxers are literally too stupid to breathe. Sad, really. I have a few friends that have been reasonable, intelligent people their entire lives. And now they are fucking anti-vaxxers. 

In all fairness, I would be fucking anti-vaxers too if they were hot enough.

[Trey3216 15453]

10 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s his point. Since there’s been no net increase in icu beds taken despite 3x icu patients being Covid positive, the only two conclusions are that normal icu admissions are down the same amount as Covid admissions are up, or that it’s all with Covid but not for Covid- with the distinction being where they are housed and the ppe of the attending care givers. 

Some data from SanFran about this...

 

 

[Anastasis 23717]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Some data from SanFran about this...

 

 

 

 

Sounds like they are having a crisis of public health policy. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13742]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

Some data from SanFran about this...

 

 

While I understand that some point this data and say, "aha, the covid hospitalizations are bs" it's still a major factor in the hospitals.

Say you're in the hospital for heart disease, and they discover that you're COVID positive.  Do you think they just shrug, count you as COVID positive and nothing else changes?  Now they have to deal with you as both a cardiac and COVID patient. I assume you are moved to another part of the hospital, which puts strain on the cardiac care unit.

Finally a doctor decides to review the cases of hundreds if not a thousand plus cases to prove a point? somehow I doubt she started her "study" free of biases.

 

 

[Trey3216 15453]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

While I understand that some point this data and say, "aha, the covid hospitalizations are bs" it's still a major factor in the hospitals.

Say you're in the hospital for heart disease, and they discover that you're COVID positive.  Do you think they just shrug, count you as COVID positive and nothing else changes?  Now they have to deal with you as both a cardiac and COVID patient. I assume you are moved to another part of the hospital, which puts strain on the cardiac care unit.

Finally a doctor decides to review the cases of hundreds if not a thousand plus cases to prove a point? somehow I doubt she started her "study" free of biases.

 

 

I understand the nuance behind it.  Just found it interesting.  Also, it's not like this is some bullshit, Trumpy Trump metro area.   Just thought it was an interesting representation of what many of us have been discussing all along.  And with the new strains that are less deadly, should we begin to stop treating everyone that's in there for heart disease like they have the fucking plague and instead treat them like they have a serious cold?  When do we stop treating everyone like they're walking death?  

Edited January 11, 2022 by Trey3216

[babysdaddy 2731]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59895934

 

masks in schools.  actually used a control group.  

"Schools where face coverings were used in October 2021 saw a reduction two to three weeks later in Covid absences from 5.3% to 3% - a drop of 2.3 percentage points.

In schools which did not use face coverings absences fell from 5.3% to 3.6% - a fall of 1.7 percentage points.

It said this was not statistically significant and the greater reduction in schools where masks were worn could be down to chance."

[Nice Guy Eddie 13742]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

I understand the nuance behind it.  Just found it interesting.  Also, it's not like this is some bullshit, Trumpy Trump metro area.   

Agree. And I'm sure others have used these hospitalization data points to their own agenda to push for strong anti-COVID measures. Even to the point of intentionally allowing people to be confused about the data.

I just find it hard to believe that a hospitalized person, initially for non-COVID reasons, isn't negatively impacted when they also catch COVID. I would think the same for other diseases as well.

[GreenspointTexas 9991]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

I’m not trying to deliberately catch COVID, but I’m definitely engaging in riskier behavior for Stage 5 purposes later this week. I have my firm’s annual partner dinner on Thursday, and then restaurant meals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for my girlfriend’s birthday weekend, all of which are indoors because it’s only going to reach highs on the 50s.

Still wearing masks in the office, at HEB, etc. But this week may eliminate me from the COVID hide-and-seek tournament.

Same. Headed to Vegas with the wife this weekend. Ill be gambling and catching shows in my Envomask, but eating and drinking…. Well…. Nice knowing yall

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59895934

 

masks in schools.  actually used a control group.  

"Schools where face coverings were used in October 2021 saw a reduction two to three weeks later in Covid absences from 5.3% to 3% - a drop of 2.3 percentage points.

In schools which did not use face coverings absences fell from 5.3% to 3.6% - a fall of 1.7 percentage points.

It said this was not statistically significant and the greater reduction in schools where masks were worn could be down to chance."

Have a kid in a masked school. I wear masks when I am out 100% when going indoors. Masks in school seem pointless to me. If there were brief interactions between students/teachers then I think they'd make a difference. I just don't understand how they can make much difference when kids are in the room together for 7-8 hours a day. 

Not about to start protesting at the school board, but it seems theater to me.

[South Austin 53261]

14 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Same. Headed to Vegas with the wife this weekend. Ill be gambling and catching shows in my Envomask, but eating and drinking…. Well…. Nice knowing yall

We’ll miss you, and your endless optimism.

[StruggleBus 3922]

37 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have a kid in a masked school. I wear masks when I am out 100% when going indoors. Masks in school seem pointless to me. If there were brief interactions between students/teachers then I think they'd make a difference. I just don't understand how they can make much difference when kids are in the room together for 7-8 hours a day. 

Not about to start protesting at the school board, but it seems theater to me.

Yeah, I stopped sending a mask with my kindergartner when I looked in the school cafeteria and every kid had their mask pulled under their chin. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

1 hour ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Not that anyone should need more proof on the efficacy of vaccines, but to further illustrate the point, some trends in NYC and Seattle during the recent Omicron surge.
 

 

Does “fully vaccinated” in this context, mean boosted?

 

52 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Same. Headed to Vegas with the wife this weekend. Ill be gambling and catching shows in my Envomask, but eating and drinking…. Well…. Nice knowing yall

Oh ffs

[We’reTexas 1477]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

Sounds like they are having a crisis of public health policy. 

This. The nine Bay Area county health authorities are still stuck in April 2020. I had a mini-breakdown reading this story today as I waited to get into the office (where we are tested daily, 100% vaxxed and now have an indoor mask mandate at all times). Obviously y’all back in Texas have had it much harder on the other end up the spectrum, but I am infuriated by CA’s inability to move from zero COVID to a long-term harm mitigation approach. Sonoma County just issued a voluntary shelter-in-place order.

[XYZ 2154]

13 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

Obviously y’all back in Texas have had it much harder on the other end up the spectrum, but I am infuriated by CA’s inability to move from zero COVID to a long-term harm mitigation approach.

I don’t know what “end up the spectrum” you are talking about, but no, we haven’t had it much harder than hysteric bullshit California.

[BrazilHorn 6855]

My 12 year old just tested positive. Wife thinks she has it as well. Just got my 14 year old from school to bring him home. We are all vaccinated/boosted and already had covid early on, but here we go.

My 12 year old has a low grade fever, chills and the lower back pain that was mentioned above. Funny is when he had covid the first time he had no symptoms.

[InkaUtexas 26944]

The shit is all over where I live. Have three friends who have it. One tested negative then got it. Illness ranges from sniffles to holy shit a truck just hit me. 

Hang in there @BrazilHorn and keep us posted. 

[We’reTexas 1477]

30 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I don’t know what “end up the spectrum” you are talking about, but no, we haven’t had it much harder than hysteric bullshit California.

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

[Trey3216 15453]

3 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

You do you bro.  

 

Hope all those kids in Berkeley school district make it through the day in their N95 masks for 8 hours.  Maybe they'll be afforded the luxury of eating.  

Edited January 11, 2022 by Trey3216

[Anastasis 23717]

4 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

Why exactly?

[ZB'Tejas 597]

7 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

CA 77K deaths

TX 76K deaths

seems like it has not made much of a difference.

[South Austin 53261]

2 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

CA 77K deaths

TX 76K deaths

“I still think the better state won.” – Matt Leinart.

[ABSR 5372]

11 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

This is exactly how Texas handled this but even worse.  Please tell all of your California friends!

[3adays 454]

30 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

26 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

CA 77K deaths

TX 76K deaths

seems like it has not made much of a difference.

30 million vs 40 million population does help show some level of difference, yes?  That’s assuming both states are counting Covid deaths similarly. 

[South Austin 53261]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s assuming both states are counting Covid deaths similarly. 

You mean with similar inaccuracy.

[Bevo 13923]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You mean with similar inaccuracy.

Shit, I'm not even confident in the census numbers.

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

Well then garbage in garbage out applies and nothing can be teased out of the numbers.  They aren’t proof of a difference in policy working or not working. 

[Foosters 18287]

43 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Hope all those kids in Berkeley school district make it through the day in their N95 masks for 8 hours.  Maybe they'll be afforded the luxury of eating.  

My 5 year old daughter seems to be doing just fine. Certainly better than many of the grown men on this website.

[mchookem 16783]

36 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

I meant having to fend for yourself in a caliphate that ceased to take any action against the greatest public health crisis of our time, emboldened the ignorant and actively stymied local authorities. Not a great choice, but I’d take the CA experience over TX any day. 

i understood what you meant. ignore the shit throwers 🙄 local authorities defying the state have helped here in the larger metro areas, as well as generally more responsible/careful behavior by the citizens in many of those same areas (e.g. Austin area residents continuing to mask up indoors without a mandate). 

there has to be, if not a 'happy' medium, at least a balanced approach. i haven't followed any other states closely enough to know if any have fared better at finding that balance, somewhere between the free for all of TX/FL and the draconian enforcement of CA/NY 😕

i had a friend visiting Austin from OR last week and she posted on fb wondering what to prepare for...many people were telling her to double mask everywhere, don't go inside anywhere, she even got suggestions of eye goggles and a face shield on top of her masks.

i was just like...really?

 

[BabaYaga 15631]

23 minutes ago, mchookem said:

many people were telling her to double mask everywhere, don't go inside anywhere, she even got suggestions of eye goggles and a face shield on top of her masks.

[Brisketexan 107009]

So, I can't figure out how to post any of the charts here, but it MAY be the case that this wave as to Travis County and Texas has peaked -- looks to be a decline in cases the last 3-4 days?  Can someone post those?

And, it does look like hospitalizations are, as expected, a trailing indicator.  It took cases 3-4 weeks to peak.  It takes hospitalizations 2-3 weeks to catch up, and they're doing that now (numbers are starting to materially increase).  

But it may be that we are 3-4 weeks from the case count part of the wave to get close to bottom/stable, and then probably another 2-3 weeks for hospitalizations to do the same.

And....then what?  That's the big question, isn't it?

[utee94 16091]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And....then what?  That's the big question, isn't it?

Then what?

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26944]

Some variant will emerge from somewhere, perhaps not bad, perhaps worse, and we will have to deal with it then. 

[We’reTexas 1477]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Why exactly?

On the whole I’d take a state government that supports public health measures to combat the pandemic, even if I generally disagree with its approach, rather than one that at the very best is lukewarm and at worst actively opposes them. I’ve been back to Texas six times during the pandemic and observed quite a striking contrast. It’s been hard for my family and friends, especially those with young kids, to navigate things, and I feel for them. 

[bschoolprof 6352]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, I can't figure out how to post any of the charts here, but it MAY be the case that this wave as to Travis County and Texas has peaked -- looks to be a decline in cases the last 3-4 days?  Can someone post those?

And, it does look like hospitalizations are, as expected, a trailing indicator.  It took cases 3-4 weeks to peak.  It takes hospitalizations 2-3 weeks to catch up, and they're doing that now (numbers are starting to materially increase).  

But it may be that we are 3-4 weeks from the case count part of the wave to get close to bottom/stable, and then probably another 2-3 weeks for hospitalizations to do the same.

And....then what?  That's the big question, isn't it?

Yes, there's been a recent downtick in cases, but case counts have oscillated pretty frequently for sustained periods in past waves (see above). We'd need a sustained decrease to say we've peaked.  Hospitalization curves are more unimodal and once they peak, we're on the backside (ha!).  I think we peak at the end of January. Then back for more fun in July.  

[Anastasis 23717]

8 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Yes, there's been a recent downtick in cases, but case counts have oscillated pretty frequently for sustained periods in past waves (see above). We'd need a sustained decrease to say we've peaked.  Hospitalization curves are more unimodal and once they peak, we're on the backside (ha!).  I think we peak at the end of January. Then back for more fun in July.  

 

I think that we got another week or two in the oven, but hope that I am wrong. 

[Bevo 13923]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

 

I think that we got another week or two in the oven, but hope that I am wrong. 

You aren't. Lot's of new cases springing up.

[Trey3216 15453]

14 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

On the whole I’d take a state government that supports public health measures to combat the pandemic, even if I generally disagree with its approach, rather than one that at the very best is lukewarm and at worst actively opposes them. I’ve been back to Texas six times during the pandemic and observed quite a striking contrast. It’s been hard for my family and friends, especially those with young kids, to navigate things, and I feel for them. 

I happily take a place that leaves things to jurisdictional deference and doesn’t disable businesses from operating.   Let the people decide whether or not they want to understand the seriousness of the issue while operating a modestly normal life rather than a system confusing people to the point where they are afraid to walk out side and breath fresh air.   

[DaysOff 8220]

Johnson City ISD schools closed tomorrow. Not enough teachers or pupils.

My wife makes a trek one day a week to do contract work for the district. She's typically the only masked villain in the city limits. Often hearing that the virus doesn't exist and don't get the booster, it changes your DNA.